清华金融评论
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等你来投!《清华金融评论》12月刊 “ 黄金投资逻辑:历史周期与趋势演变 ” 征稿启事
清华金融评论· 2025-11-10 10:06
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of gold as a safe-haven asset due to geopolitical tensions, declining dollar credibility, and central banks' increasing gold reserves, alongside a steady rise in industrial demand for gold driven by the rapid development of electronic and renewable energy industries [4][5]. Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - Geopolitical conflicts and the decline in dollar credibility have enhanced gold's role as a hedge against risk [4][5]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a net total of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2023, surpassing pre-2022 averages [4]. - As of the end of October, China's gold reserves reached 74.09 million ounces (approximately 2,304.457 tons), marking a continuous increase for 12 months [4]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Regulatory Changes - The domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 79.015 tons in the first three quarters of 2023, reaching a total of 193.749 tons by the end of September [5]. - A new tax policy announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration categorizes gold transactions into "investment" and "non-investment" types, providing clearer guidelines for future trading [5]. Group 3: Research and Analysis Focus - The article outlines a call for papers on the investment logic of gold, focusing on historical cycles and trend evolution, with specific topics including the cyclical characteristics of gold prices, the impact of inflation and interest rates, and the comparison between gold and digital currencies [6]. - The submission deadline for the papers is set for November 18, 2025, with a word count recommendation of 4,000 to 6,000 words [10].
十字路口的自贸离岸债——进展、困境及推进建议|资本市场
清华金融评论· 2025-11-09 08:11
Core Viewpoint - The offshore bond business in free trade zones has seen significant development, but it also faces challenges that need to be addressed for sustainable growth [4][8]. Development Status of Offshore Bonds - The overall structure of the offshore bond market is gradually optimizing, with a cumulative issuance amount of approximately 130 billion yuan by June 2025, primarily from urban investment companies, with participation from financial, real estate, leasing, and industrial companies [6]. - The service model for overseas investors is becoming more diverse, with the introduction of a "primary custody + tiered service" model by the central clearing company, enhancing outreach to overseas investors [6]. - The trading functions are improving, allowing transactions through platforms like Bloomberg and Tradeweb, and facilitating automatic bond settlement [6]. - Theoretical research on offshore bonds is deepening, with collaborations between banks and academic institutions to create research platforms [7]. - There is an increasing expectation from various sectors regarding the significance of offshore bonds in Shanghai's financial system development, with multiple supportive measures being introduced [7]. Challenges and Reasons - The offshore bond business faces several challenges, including insufficient policy supply, with delays in financial legislation and unclear policy directives [9]. - The business scale is under pressure, with no new issuances since November 2023 and a peak period for principal and interest repayments approaching in 2025-2026, with approximately 116.8 billion yuan of bonds maturing [9]. - There is a need for improved communication between regulators and the market, as misunderstandings about regulatory policies persist [9]. - The growth of dim sum bonds has created a competitive environment, with an average annual growth rate of 62% in new issuances from 2022 to 2024, impacting the demand for offshore bonds [10]. - Concerns about the risks associated with innovative businesses are rising, particularly due to the high proportion of urban investment companies among issuers [11].
美元的困境与人民币的机遇|国际
清华金融评论· 2025-11-09 08:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges facing the US dollar's credibility in the long term, highlighting a potential restructuring of the international monetary system if allied nations collectively lose confidence in the dollar [1][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - In September, the Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts, lowering rates by 25 basis points, which is not directly indicative of a weakening dollar credit [3][4]. - The Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment is under pressure, particularly with deteriorating employment data and inflation concerns stemming from Trump's tariffs [3][4]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates was made despite external pressures for larger cuts, indicating a commitment to its established policy path [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the Dollar - The Federal Reserve is facing a triple dilemma: policy indecision, confusion in monetary policy expectations, and threats to its independence [1][5]. - Trump's interventions in Fed policy and potential changes in leadership could further undermine the Fed's independence and the dollar's credibility [5][6]. - The ongoing trade policies and tariffs under Trump's administration are eroding the dollar's international standing and could lead to a reconfiguration of the global monetary order [6][7]. Group 3: Global Monetary System Dynamics - The article notes a significant increase in gold prices, reflecting a shift towards a multipolar international monetary system, with emerging markets increasing their gold reserves [6][12]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global reserves does not automatically benefit other non-dollar currencies, as they face their own structural challenges [12][13]. - The potential for a "de-dollarization" trend is highlighted, particularly if allied nations lose faith in the dollar due to ongoing US economic policies [6][7]. Group 4: Implications for China - China is encouraged to recognize the opportunity presented by the US's declining global economic leadership and to enhance the international status of the renminbi [13][14]. - Strengthening the domestic economy and improving the financial market system are crucial for increasing the attractiveness of renminbi assets [14][15]. - Historical lessons from the euro and yen's internationalization processes emphasize the importance of economic strength and the establishment of a robust currency settlement function [16][17].
2025年10月CPI同比上涨0.2%,上月为下降0.3%|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-11-09 06:56
2025年10月CPI同比上涨0.2%,是连续3个月负增长后首次转正,上一次 同比正增长出现在2025年6月(涨幅0.1%)。 2025 年 10 月份,全国居民消费价格同比上涨 0.2% 。其中,城市上涨 0.3% ,农村下降 0.2% ;食品价格下降 2.9% ,非食品价格上涨 0.9% ;消费品价格下降 0.2% ,服务价格上涨 0.8% 。 1 — 10 月平均,全国居民消费价格比上年同期下降 0.1% 。 10 月份,全国居民消费价格环比上涨 0.2% 。其中,城市上涨 0.2% ,农村上涨 0.1% ;食品价格上涨 0.3% ,非食品价格上涨 0.2% ;消 费品价格上涨 0.2% ,服务价格上涨 0.2% 。 各类商品及服务价格同比变动情况 10 月份,食品烟酒类价格同比下降 1.6% ,影响 CPI (居民消费价格指数)下降约 0.46 个百分点。食品中,蛋类价格下降 11.6% ,影响 CPI 下降约 0.08 个百分点;畜肉类价格下降 7.4% ,影响 CPI 下降约 0.23 个百分点,其中猪肉价格下降 16.0% ,影响 CPI 下降约 0.23 个 百分点;鲜菜价格下降 7.3% , ...
蔡昉:加强再分配缩小收入差距的作用|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-11-08 09:31
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of improving the income distribution system in China to achieve common prosperity and enhance the quality of life for residents, linking it to the broader goals of modernization and economic growth [2][4]. Group 1: Current State of Income Distribution - Since the 18th National Congress, China's income distribution has improved significantly, with the urban-rural income ratio decreasing from 3.14 in 2007 to 2.34 in 2024, and the Gini coefficient dropping from 0.491 in 2008 to 0.465 [4]. - The article highlights that while urban-rural income disparity has decreased, the overall income distribution remains uneven, with the Gini coefficient still above the 0.4 threshold, indicating that substantial work is needed to achieve a more equitable distribution [5][10]. Group 2: Challenges in Income Distribution - The article identifies the urgent task of alleviating income growth pressure on residents and addressing gaps in social security, particularly in rural areas [4][5]. - It notes that the income gap within urban areas has been widening, with data showing that from 2015 to 2020, the Gini coefficient for urban areas increased by 1.4%, while it decreased for the national and rural levels [6][10]. Group 3: Importance of Redistribution Policies - The article argues for a coordinated approach involving initial distribution, redistribution, and third distribution to effectively narrow income gaps and enhance social welfare [8][12]. - It stresses that relying solely on initial distribution mechanisms is insufficient for achieving common prosperity in a shorter time frame, necessitating a stronger focus on redistribution policies [8][9]. Group 4: Recommendations for Policy Improvement - The article suggests that improving public services and social security systems is crucial for achieving equitable income distribution, with a focus on education, healthcare, and social welfare [13][14]. - It highlights the need for a more robust social safety net to protect workers from the adverse effects of technological advancements, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence [10][15].
解密全球第一家AI原生银行Ryt Bank|金融与科技
清华金融评论· 2025-11-08 09:31
Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of Ryt Bank, the world's first AI-native bank, which utilizes a proprietary large language model (ILMU) to innovate its technology architecture, business model, and governance practices [4][6][41] - Ryt Bank represents a paradigm shift from traditional banking's AI applications, focusing on integrating AI deeply into core banking services rather than peripheral processes [4][10][41] Group 1: Ryt Bank's Establishment and Background - Ryt Bank was launched in August 2025, following the issuance of digital banking licenses by Bank Negara Malaysia in April 2022, with a focus on AI-driven services [7][8] - The bank is a collaboration between YTL Group and Sea Limited, combining expertise in infrastructure, technology, and digital ecosystems [8][41] - Ryt Bank operates under strict regulatory compliance, providing deposit insurance up to 250,000 MYR for each depositor, ensuring market trust [7][8] Group 2: Technological Innovations - Ryt Bank's core technology is the Ryt AI system, which integrates AI into the bank's core operations, contrasting with traditional banks that use AI as an auxiliary tool [10][17] - The ILMU model, developed specifically for banking scenarios, optimizes for accuracy, safety, and compliance, supporting a modular multi-agent system [11][19] - The system includes four key agents: Guardrails Agent, Intent Agent, Action Agent, and Q&A Agent, which streamline user interactions and enhance transaction security [12][16][20] Group 3: Business Model and Financial Inclusion - Ryt Bank's business model emphasizes "AI-first" and financial inclusion, aiming to lower barriers to access and enhance user experience [25][28] - The bank offers competitive savings products with up to 4% annual interest and no lock-in periods, appealing to younger, yield-focused customers [26][27] - Ryt Bank's services are designed to be user-friendly, particularly for underserved populations, by providing multi-language support and 24/7 AI assistance [28][29] Group 4: Implications for the Banking Industry - Ryt Bank's model serves as a blueprint for global banking digital transformation, showcasing how AI can redefine customer interactions and operational efficiency [31][32] - The bank's success highlights the potential for AI-native banks to challenge traditional financial systems and drive innovation in regulatory frameworks [34][41] - The article suggests that Ryt Bank's experience can inform China's banking sector as it pursues AI integration and financial inclusion initiatives [36][37]
等你来投!《清华金融评论》12月刊 “ 前瞻美债与美元 : 长周期视角 ” 征稿启事
清华金融评论· 2025-11-08 09:31
Group 1 - The uncertainty of the U.S. government's tariff and fiscal policies has shaken investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar [4][2] - As of October 2025, the U.S. national debt has exceeded $37.86 trillion, with a federal budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for FY 2025, remaining at historically high levels [4] - The net interest cost of U.S. public debt has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, reflecting an approximately 8% increase from FY 2024, driven by rising debt and high interest rates [4] Group 2 - Future U.S. Treasury yields may remain volatile at high levels, and the strong position of the dollar may gradually weaken [4][2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor U.S. government policy dynamics, economic data, and global market changes to assess risks and make informed investment decisions [4][2] - A call for submissions has been made by the editorial team of Tsinghua Financial Review, focusing on the long-term perspective of U.S. Treasuries and the dollar [4][3]
解密全球第一家AI原生银行Ryt Bank|金融与科技
清华金融评论· 2025-11-07 08:42
Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of Ryt Bank, the world's first AI-native bank, which utilizes a proprietary large language model (ILMU) to innovate its technology architecture, business model, and corporate governance [4][6][41] - Ryt Bank's AI-driven multi-agent system represents a paradigm shift from traditional banking's AI applications, focusing on integrating natural language interactions into core banking services [4][10][41] Technology Architecture and Innovations - Ryt Bank's core technology is the Ryt AI system, which integrates AI at the heart of its operations rather than as an add-on to existing systems [9][17] - The ILMU model, specifically designed for banking, optimizes for accuracy, security, and compliance, supporting a modular multi-agent system that transforms traditional banking processes into natural language dialogues [10][19] - The system operates through a four-stage workflow: Guardrails, Intent, Action, and Confirmation, ensuring secure and compliant transactions [10][11][12] Business Model Innovation and Financial Inclusion - Ryt Bank's business model emphasizes "AI-first" and financial inclusion, aiming to lower barriers to access and enhance user experience [25][28] - The bank offers competitive savings products with up to 4% annual interest and features like "Snap & Pay" for simplified payment processes [26][27] - Ryt Bank's approach to financial inclusion includes reducing operational barriers, overcoming language obstacles, and providing 24/7 AI services to underserved populations [28][29] Global Banking Transformation Insights - Ryt Bank serves as a case study for the global banking industry's transition from digitalization to intelligent banking, showcasing how AI can reshape customer interactions and operational efficiency [31][32] - The bank's model highlights the potential for AI to execute core financial transactions directly, contrasting with traditional banks that use AI primarily for auxiliary tasks [22][17] Regulatory and Collaborative Opportunities - Ryt Bank's experience offers valuable lessons for global financial regulation, demonstrating how innovation and regulation can coexist [34][36] - The article suggests that China could benefit from Ryt Bank's model by establishing AI regulatory sandboxes and fostering international fintech cooperation, particularly with Malaysia [37][40]
2025上市公司与金融机构可持续发展典型案例征集
清华金融评论· 2025-11-07 08:42
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transition of sustainable development from a strategic concept to a critical measure of high-quality economic growth in China, particularly highlighting 2025 as a pivotal year for deepening practical implementation of sustainability initiatives [3]. Group 1: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The Chinese government has introduced several policies, including the "Central Enterprises ESG Special Action Guidelines (2025)" and the "Management Measures for Information Disclosure of Listed Companies," mandating the integration of sustainable development into corporate governance and moving from optional to standardized disclosure of non-financial information [3]. - Financial institutions are evolving from advocates of sustainability to key actors, embedding ESG principles into their strategies and operations, and promoting green finance and responsible investment practices [3]. Group 2: Case Collection Initiative - Tsinghua Financial Review has launched a "2025 Sustainable Development Typical Case Collection" to create a high-level platform for sharing best practices in green finance and sustainability governance, aiming to establish industry benchmarks and facilitate experience sharing [4]. - The collection targets various institutions, including banks, insurance companies, asset management firms, and listed companies, encouraging submissions of innovative and impactful sustainability practices [6]. Group 3: Submission Themes and Requirements - The case collection focuses on three main dimensions: climate change response, social contributions, and corporate governance, with specific topics such as pollution control, waste management, and supply chain safety [7]. - Submissions must reflect the positive efforts of financial institutions and listed companies in sustainability, with a requirement for authenticity and a good reputation, and should include comprehensive data and outcomes [8][9].
蓝佛安:将不新增隐性债务作为“铁的纪律”|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-11-07 08:42
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing proactive fiscal policies to support China's economic development and modernization goals during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, highlighting the need for effective macroeconomic management and governance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Implementation of Proactive Fiscal Policies - The central government has continuously adjusted fiscal policies in response to changing economic conditions, focusing on targeted support for key sectors and weak links to ensure stable economic growth [3][4]. - The average economic growth rate in China is projected to be around 5.5% from 2021 to 2024, with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually [4]. - The total public budget expenditure during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to exceed 136 trillion yuan, supporting various national strategies such as rural revitalization and regional coordinated development [4]. Group 2: Key Strategies for Fiscal Policy - The article outlines several key strategies for effective fiscal policy implementation, including: 1. Coordinating counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to enhance long-term development potential [5]. 2. Balancing supply-side and demand-side management to foster a dynamic equilibrium between supply and demand [5]. 3. Innovating fiscal tools and reforming the fiscal and tax system to improve policy effectiveness [5]. 4. Strengthening policy coordination and integrating fiscal policies with national development plans [5]. 5. Managing expectations to enhance market confidence through transparent and predictable policy measures [5]. Group 3: Addressing Challenges and Risks - The article identifies the complex domestic and international challenges facing fiscal policy, including geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, necessitating a proactive approach to enhance fiscal effectiveness and governance [6][9]. - Emphasis is placed on the need for a robust fiscal framework to manage local government debt risks and ensure sustainable fiscal development [13]. Group 4: Focus on Social Welfare and Development - The article stresses the importance of directing fiscal resources towards social welfare, ensuring that public finance serves the needs of the people and addresses their diverse demands [7][10]. - It highlights the commitment to improving living standards, supporting education, healthcare, and social security systems, and promoting rural revitalization [11][12]. Group 5: Future Directions - The article outlines future directions for fiscal policy, including expanding domestic demand, supporting technological self-reliance, and enhancing urban-rural integration [10][11][12]. - It calls for deepening reforms in fiscal management and supervision to improve governance efficiency and ensure that fiscal policies effectively contribute to high-quality development [12][13].