图1和图2分别展示了优秀基金业绩增强组合、超预期精选组合、券商金股业绩增强组合及成长稳健组合在本周及2024年的收益表现情况。 我们以偏股混合型基金指 数（885001.WI）为比较基准 ，以主动股基仓位中位数作为组合仓位计算组合净值。组合近期表现如下： 优秀基金业绩增强组合：本周超额收益-0.32%，本年超额收益-3.07%。 超预期精选组合：本周超额收益0.71%，本年超额收益10.32%。 券商金股业绩增强组合：本周超额收益-0.74%，本年超额收益2.11%。 成长稳健组合：本周超额收益0.72%，本年超额收益14.87%。 2 优秀基金业绩增强组合 | 报 告 摘 要 | | --- | | 一、国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪 | | 本周， 优秀基金业绩增强组合 绝对收益-0.06%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益-0.32%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益2.56%，相对偏股混合型基金指 | | 数超额收益-3.07%。 今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股基中排名51.95% | | 分位点（1802/3469）。 | | 绝对收益0.96%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 本周 ...

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of June 13, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 3.23%, Shenzhen Component Index 11.94%, CSI 300 9.21%, CSI 500 9.33%, CSI 1000 7.65%, CSI 2000 4.96%, ChiNext Index 19.86%, and STAR Market 13.66% [5][25] - The industry indices that are closest to their 250-day new highs include non-ferrous metals, banking, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and electric power and public utilities [8][25] Group 2 - A total of 838 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the most significant numbers in the pharmaceutical, basic chemicals, and machinery sectors [2][13] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the banking, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical industries, with respective proportions of 71.43%, 29.29%, and 24.95% [13][16] - The manufacturing and cyclical sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 262 and 212 stocks respectively [16] Group 3 - The report identifies 42 stocks that have shown stable new highs, with the majority coming from the manufacturing and consumer sectors, each contributing 9 stocks [22][26] - The mechanical industry had the most new highs within the manufacturing sector, while the food and beverage industry led in the consumer sector [22][26] - The selection criteria for stable new high stocks include analyst attention, relative strength of stock prices, price path stability, and continuity of new highs [19][20]

Key Points - The article discusses the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices as of June 10, 2025, highlighting the stages of dividend announcements and distributions across various indices [1][4]. - It provides a comparison of dividend yields across different industries, noting that coal, banking, and steel sectors have the highest yields [2][3]. - The article also presents the realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices, indicating the current financial performance and future expectations [6][7]. - It tracks the premium and discount of stock index futures, emphasizing the importance of considering dividend impacts on futures pricing [2][12]. Group 1: Dividend Progress of Constituent Stocks - As of June 10, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index has 14 companies in the proposal stage, 19 in the decision stage, 3 in the implementation stage, 9 that have paid dividends, and 4 that have not [1][4]. - The CSI 300 Index has 81 companies in the proposal stage, 92 in the decision stage, 34 in the implementation stage, 65 that have paid dividends, and 27 that have not [1][4]. - The CSI 500 Index has 68 companies in the proposal stage, 146 in the decision stage, 57 in the implementation stage, 139 that have paid dividends, and 90 that have not [1][4]. - The CSI 1000 Index has 81 companies in the proposal stage, 269 in the decision stage, 93 in the implementation stage, 338 that have paid dividends, and 219 that have not [1][4]. Group 2: Dividend Yield Comparison - The article provides statistics on the dividend yields of stocks that have disclosed dividend proposals, with coal, banking, and steel industries ranking the highest [2][3]. Group 3: Realized and Remaining Dividend Yields - As of June 10, 2025, the realized dividend yield for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index is 0.33%, with a remaining yield of 2.03% [7]. - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 300 Index is 0.39%, with a remaining yield of 1.60% [7]. - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 500 Index is 0.48%, with a remaining yield of 0.86% [7]. - The realized dividend yield for the CSI 1000 Index is 0.45%, with a remaining yield of 0.59% [7]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Tracking - As of June 10, 2025, the annualized discount for the IH main contract is 2.11%, for the IF main contract is 6.35%, for the IC main contract is 13.84%, and for the IM main contract is 22.25% [1][12]. - The article emphasizes the need to account for dividend impacts when calculating the premium and discount of stock index futures [2][12].

Market Review - The A-share market saw all major broad-based indices rise last week, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000, and SME Index leading gains at 2.32%, 2.10%, and 1.62% respectively, while the CSI 300, SSE Composite, and SZSE Component lagged behind with returns of 0.88%, 1.13%, and 1.42% respectively [6][10] - The trading volume of major broad-based indices decreased last week, with all indices falling within the 20%-40% historical percentile range over the past 52 weeks [11][14] - In terms of industry performance, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics led with returns of 5.06%, 3.79%, and 3.58% respectively, while household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation lagged with returns of -1.75%, -0.65%, and -0.56% respectively [15][17] Fund Performance - Last week, the performance of active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced mixed funds was 1.67%, 1.11%, and 0.40% respectively. Year-to-date, alternative funds have shown the best performance with a median return of 10.73%, while active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced mixed funds have median returns of 3.33%, 1.14%, and 0.54% respectively [28][30] - The median excess return for index-enhanced funds was 0.12%, while quantitative hedging funds had a median return of 0.16%. Year-to-date, the median excess return for index-enhanced funds is 2.19%, and for quantitative hedging funds, it is 0.86% [31][32] Fund Issuance - A total of 42 new funds were established last week, with a total issuance scale of 310.13 billion yuan, which is an increase compared to the previous week. Among these, equity funds accounted for 128.66 billion yuan, mixed funds for 8.84 billion yuan, and bond funds for 172.63 billion yuan [3][41] - There were 36 funds that entered the issuance phase for the first time last week, and 34 funds are expected to start issuing this week [3] REITs Market - As of June 6, the total market value of publicly offered REITs has surpassed 200 billion yuan, reaching 2020.74 billion yuan. The market has expanded to include various asset types beyond traditional infrastructure, such as consumer facilities and rental housing [8]

一、本周指数增强组合表现 沪深300指数增强组合本周超额收益0.83%，本年超额收益5.09%。 中证500指数增强组合本周超额收益1.13%，本年超额收益7.75%。 中证1000指数增强组合本周超额收益1.86%，本年超额收益11.66%。 中证A500指数增强组合本周超额收益1.24%，本年超额收益7.78%。 二、本周选股因子表现跟踪 沪深300成分股中三个月机构覆盖、单季ROA、单季ROE等因子表现较好。 中证500成分股中标准化预期外盈利、一个月反转、DELTAROE等因子表现 较好。 中证1000成分股中单季营收同比增速、DELTAROE、单季ROE等因子表现较 好。 中证A500指数成分股中单季ROE、预期PEG、DELTAROE等因子表现较好。 公募基金重仓股中DELTAROE、一年动量、单季营收同比增速等因子表现较 好。 三、本周公募基金指数增强产品表现跟踪 沪深300指数增强产品本周超额收益最高1.14%，最低-0.35%，中位数 0.07%。 中证500指数增强产品本周超额收益最高0.88%，最低-0.75%，中位数 0.07%。 中证1000指数增强产品本周超额收益最高0.89%，最 ...

| 报 告 摘 要 | | --- | | 一、国信金工主动量化策略表现跟踪 | | 本周， 优秀基金业绩增强组合 绝对收益1.87%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益-0.06%。本年，优秀基金业绩增强组合绝对收益2.62%，相对偏股混合型基金指 | | 数超额收益-2.75%。 今年以来，优秀基金业绩增强组合在主动股基中排名51.60% | | 分位点（1790/3469）。 | | 绝对收益5.01%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收益 本周， 超预期精选组合 | | 3.07%。本年，超预期精选组合绝对收益14.85%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额 | | 收益9.48%。 今年以来，超预期精选组合在主动股基中排名10.93%分位点 | | （379/3469）。 | | 本周， 券商金股业绩增强组合 绝对收益3.14%，相对偏股混合型基金指数超额收 | | 益1.20%。本年，券商金股业绩增强组合绝对收益8.27%，相对偏股混合型基金指 | | 数超额收益2.90%。 今年以来，券商金股业绩增强组合在主动股基中排名25.02% | | 分位点（868/3469）。 | | 本周， 成长稳健组合 绝 ...

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of June 6, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index at 2.99%, Shenzhen Component Index at 11.41%, CSI 300 at 8.98%, CSI 500 at 8.98%, CSI 1000 at 6.94%, CSI 2000 at 4.25%, ChiNext Index at 20.03%, and STAR Market 50 Index at 12.00% [5][21] - Among the CITIC first-level industry indices, banking, pharmaceuticals, light manufacturing, electricity and public utilities, and agriculture-related industries are closest to their 250-day new highs, while coal, oil and petrochemicals, real estate, food and beverage, and electric equipment and new energy industries are further away [8][21] Group 2 - A total of 777 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number in the basic chemicals, machinery, and pharmaceuticals sectors [2][22] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the banking, textile and apparel, and light manufacturing sectors, with respective proportions of 71.43%, 27.27%, and 24.24% [22][23] - The manufacturing and cyclical sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 266 and 195 stocks respectively, while the technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer, and financial sectors had 106, 91, 73, and 43 stocks respectively [15][23] Group 3 - The report identifies 38 stable new high stocks, including Sanofi, Wancheng Group, and Shijia Photon, based on criteria such as analyst attention, relative strength, price path stability, and continuity of new highs [3][19] - The manufacturing sector had the most stable new high stocks, with 11, while the consumer sector had 8, with the mechanical industry leading in manufacturing and the food and beverage industry leading in consumption [19][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article explores the concept of contrarian investing, emphasizing its complexity beyond the simplistic notion of "buy low, sell high." It introduces a quantitative approach to measure contrarian investment capabilities through the concept of emotional beta, demonstrating that fund managers who achieve excess returns when investor opinions converge tend to perform better in the future [1][5][12]. Emotional Beta and Asset Returns - Contrarian investing is defined as taking positions contrary to the majority of investors. Turnover rate is used to represent the degree of investor disagreement, with lower turnover indicating greater consensus. Empirical results show that assets with low emotional beta often exhibit better future performance across various asset classes [2][6]. Quantitative Expression of Contrarian Investment Capability - The article constructs a contrarian investment capability factor based on fund holdings and fund returns. The average RankIC for the fund holding-based factor is -7.30%, with an annualized RankICIR of -0.92 and a win rate of 67.21%. The fund return-based factor shows an average RankIC of -8.92%, an annualized RankICIR of -1.04, and a win rate of 75.41%. The combined contrarian investment capability factor has an average RankIC of -10.85%, an annualized RankICIR of -1.39, and a win rate of 78.69% [3][66]. Characteristics of the Contrarian Investment Capability Factor - The contrarian investment capability factor exhibits low correlation with nine previously constructed selection factors, with absolute correlation values below 0.1. The introduction of this factor enhances the predictive power of a composite selection factor, increasing its average RankIC from 11.51% to 13.57% [4][73]. Market Adaptability and Predictive Power - Since 2015, the contrarian investment capability factor has shown high predictive power, with an average RankIC of -10.85% and an annualized RankICIR of -1.39. It has maintained strong performance even as other previously successful factors have experienced significant volatility [6][73]. Historical Examples of Contrarian Investors - Notable investors like Warren Buffett and John Templeton exemplify successful contrarian investing. Buffett's strategy involves buying undervalued stocks during market downturns, while Templeton capitalized on extreme pessimism during the Great Depression by investing in undervalued stocks [8][9][12].

报 告 摘 要 一、 事件快评 一 指数化投资迎来大发展 近几年，随着投资者对指数化投资接受程度的不断提高，指数基金规模不断提升。图1展示了2010Q1至2025Q1期间股票型ETF和普通股票型指数基金（不包含ETF）的规 模变动情况。可以看到股票型ETF规模整体呈上升趋势，2025Q1股票型ETF规模达到2.99万亿元；普通股票型指数基金（不包含ETF）受分级基金退出等因素影响规模增 速相对较低，2021Q3之后基金规模波动下行。截至2025年3月31日，股票型被动指数基金共计1305只，合计规模高达3.26万亿元。 由于指数成分股调整是根据编制规则进行的被动操作，因此若成分股的调整规模较大，则可能带来交易性的投资机会。我们对跟踪不同指数的被动产品的规模进行了统 计，仅考虑ETF、普通场外指数基金以及LOF，ETF联接不纳入考虑，其中，ETF规模截至2025年5月30日，场外基金以及LOF规模截至2025年3月31日。截至2025年5月 30日，被动产品跟踪规模超过100亿元的A股股票指数共38只，其中跟踪规模前三的指数分别为沪深300、中证A500、科创50，跟踪规模分别为10569.93、2076.83 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the performance and characteristics of the "brokerage golden stocks" pool, highlighting its ability to track the performance of mixed equity funds and the strong selection capabilities of industry analysts [2][9][32] - In May 2025, the top-performing stocks in the brokerage golden stock pool included Mankalon, Chaohongji, and Kexing Pharmaceutical, with monthly returns of 10.78%, 7.30%, and 5.70% respectively [3][8] - Year-to-date, Northeast Securities, Huaxin Securities, and Dongxing Securities ranked highest in returns, achieving 45.28%, 40.52%, and 39.15% respectively, while the mixed equity fund index returned 3.37% and the CSI 300 index returned -2.41% [7][10] Group 2 - As of June 3, 2025, 43 brokerages published golden stocks, resulting in a total of 286 unique A-shares after deduplication [19] - The current allocation of golden stocks is highest in the machinery (9.56%), pharmaceuticals (9.04%), electronics (8.01%), basic chemicals (7.75%), and food and beverage (6.46%) sectors [23] - The brokerage golden stock pool has a higher exposure to small-cap stocks this month, indicating a shift in investment style [19][23] Group 3 - The performance of the brokerage golden stock performance enhancement portfolio showed an absolute return of 0.99% for the month and 4.97% year-to-date, outperforming the mixed equity fund index by 1.61% [28][29] - The article highlights the strong alpha generation capability of the brokerage golden stocks, which can provide significant investment opportunities [32][33] - The article also discusses the interaction between brokerage analysts and public fund managers, indicating that stocks recommended by multiple analysts tend to receive higher market attention [9][21]