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我不相信行情在4000点就结束了
集思录· 2025-11-25 14:06
Core Viewpoint - The current market adjustment is likely due to short-term negative policy factors, and it is not seen as a market top. Investors are encouraged to remain patient and gradually increase their positions as the market stabilizes [1][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The market is experiencing a 5% adjustment, which is unusual as it reflects a high level of pessimism among investors. Typically, at market tops, there is more irrational exuberance [2]. - Current market valuations for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are not considered cheap but also not overly expensive, indicating a balanced market condition [2]. - The main market players are still active, suggesting that the current adjustment is merely a daily fluctuation rather than a significant downturn [2]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The combination of significantly reduced risk-free interest rates, a collapsing real estate market, and capital controls creates a unique environment that may favor the stock market as a new asset class [3]. - Economic growth is viewed as a continuous upward trend, with the stock market reflecting this growth over time. Long-term investors are encouraged to hold onto their stocks as a means of benefiting from future economic improvements [4]. Group 3: Market Predictions - Using wave theory, the market is expected to experience a series of movements: an initial rise to 3674, followed by a correction to around 3040, and then a significant rise to over 4000 points, with a potential peak around 4330 by mid-2026 [6]. - The analysis suggests that after reaching 4000 points, a bear market may ensue, characterized by a prolonged decline that will not drop below 3000 points, potentially lasting until 2029 [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For investors uncertain about the market's direction, a convertible bond strategy is proposed, combining government bond repurchase with selected convertible bonds to mitigate risks while maintaining exposure to market movements [11].
25日投资提示:中能转债强赎
集思录· 2025-11-24 14:15
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in the convertible bond market, including announcements of bond redemption and shareholder actions regarding stock holdings. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Zhonghuan Environmental Protection plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 2.37% of the company's total shares [1] - Lege Co., Ltd. intends to increase its holdings by 40 million to 80 million yuan [1] Group 2: Convertible Bond Announcements - Zhongneng Convertible Bond is subject to strong redemption [1] - Jianfan Convertible Bond and Juxing Convertible Bond will not undergo adjustments [1][2] Group 3: Convertible Bond Data - Various convertible bonds are listed with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, last conversion dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [4][6] - For example, Zhongjin Convertible Bond has a current price of 125.474, a redemption price of 100.700, and a conversion value of 125.64 [4]
听了很多大佬的话,还是学不会投资
集思录· 2025-11-24 14:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment philosophies of various individuals, particularly focusing on the insights shared by Duan Yongping, highlighting the subjective nature of investment strategies and the importance of aligning them with personal circumstances [1][3][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Duan Yongping emphasizes the importance of investing in companies with a competitive moat, such as Apple, Moutai, and Tencent, but does not provide specific criteria for identifying such companies [1][3]. - The article mentions various successful investment strategies from different individuals, including quantitative rotation, value investing, and asset allocation, suggesting that there are multiple paths to success in the capital markets [2][3]. - It is noted that Duan's investment approach may not be suitable for everyone, particularly for those without the same level of financial security or understanding of market dynamics [3][4]. Group 2: Personalization of Investment - The article stresses that each investor must find a strategy that matches their own conditions, as not everyone can adopt the same methods successfully [3][7]. - It highlights the importance of personal experience and understanding in investment, suggesting that what works for one individual may not work for another [6][7]. - The discussion includes the notion that investment is a highly personalized endeavor, and individuals should absorb wisdom from various sources to refine their own investment frameworks [7][8]. Group 3: Market Insights - The article reflects on the current market environment, indicating that while broad investment principles may hold true, the application of these principles can vary significantly based on market conditions [5][9]. - It mentions the potential for significant returns in the stock market, but also acknowledges the challenges and risks involved in identifying future successful companies [5][11]. - The discussion includes references to the financial performance of companies like OPPO and VIVO, suggesting that strong cash flow from these businesses can support investment strategies [9][10].
请教全职投资的大佬们,熊市怎么熬
集思录· 2025-11-23 14:08
1.熊市怎么熬,既无工作收入,行情又不如预期,比如2018年,2022年这些年份。 2.人是社会动物,时间富裕后,身份认同,社交关系等,怎么解决? 有没有感觉太闲了太无 聊。家庭会不会有新的矛盾 本人目前有一份收入还可以的工作(但是比较累也比较卷),投资累计本金已经达到A8了 (其中40%为工作多年陆续定投的本金,其余为收益是本金的1.5倍),一直纠结是否离职躺 平(全职投资)。 BeeBeeSee 其实真全职的多半没你假想的这些疑问,人家带带娃,做做家务,旅个游,时间不要过太 快。 什么社交关系如何解决,都是普通牛马假象出来的问题罢了,钞能力可以消弭除了生死以外 的大部分问题。 对于是否要全职的月经问题,本人粗暴的标准,还在纠结要不要的,一律不要。 全职满一个月了,去年我也在jsl里问过类似问题。 对楼主第2个问题,如果喜欢社交和热闹,可能要慎重考虑是否全职投资。我辞职前忙忙碌 碌,现在才一个月,几乎之前所有的工作联系都已经自动绕道了,大家联系的是我的职位, 不是我个人。 现在我每天早晨送好孩子,一个人取杯咖啡,沿着运河,听音乐,看书,散步,能走上3个多 小时。我之所以辞职是因为觉得生命短暂,时间宝贵,非常 ...
24日投资提示:威海广泰实控人拟减持不超2%股份
集思录· 2025-11-23 14:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant developments in various companies, including advancements in technology and strategic corporate actions [1][2][4][6]. Group 2 - Shanshi Network Technology has successfully developed an ASIC security chip that meets performance specifications, with expectations for large-scale delivery by 2026 [1]. - JinkoSolar has officially launched mass production of its Tiger Neo3.0 module [1]. - Weihai Guangtai's controlling shareholder plans to reduce their stake by no more than 2% [1]. - Kaizhong Co. is planning to acquire control of Anhui Tuosheng Auto Parts Company, leading to a stock suspension [1]. - The final trading day for Fenghuo convertible bonds is set for November 26, 2025 [1]. - ST Zhongzhuang has released a draft of its restructuring plan [1]. - The convertible bonds for Jiete, Zhengfan, and Guowei will not undergo adjustments [1]. - Zhuomai convertible bonds have been listed [1]. - New shares from Moer Thread are available for subscription on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]. Group 3 - A table of convertible bonds is provided, detailing their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, and conversion values, indicating various financial metrics for investors [4][6].
这波就到此为止了?
集思录· 2025-11-21 13:30
Market Overview - Major indices have fallen below their moving averages, indicating a potential market downturn [1] - The current market sentiment reflects a consensus among investors that a correction may be imminent, with many anticipating a return to the 3000-point level [3][5] Economic Indicators - The foundation for a sustained bull market relies heavily on economic data, which currently shows signs of weakness, particularly in the real estate sector [7] - A decline in housing prices is affecting consumer balance sheets, limiting their ability to invest in stocks [7] Investment Strategies - Investors are expressing caution, with some opting to liquidate positions in anticipation of further market declines [4][10] - There is a sentiment that the current market rally has been largely passive, driven by low-risk returns rather than strong fundamentals [9] Sector Performance - Certain sectors such as finance, insurance, and pharmaceuticals may continue to support the index, but overall market enthusiasm appears to be waning [9] - The performance of popular stocks is under scrutiny, with expectations of a potential 20% correction in high-flying stocks [9] Future Outlook - The market is currently in a state of uncertainty, with many investors unsure of when the next rally will occur [6] - There is speculation that the next significant trading opportunities may arise in early next year, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for many [10]
投资者应不应该拿出部分资金创业?
集思录· 2025-11-20 14:39
Group 1 - The article discusses two potential business models for entrepreneurship: vending machines and claw machines, highlighting their core operations and ideal locations for deployment [1][2] - Vending machines focus on retailing goods and profit from price differences, while claw machines provide entertainment experiences, with both requiring strategic placement in high-traffic areas [1] - The average monthly profit for a single vending machine is estimated to be between 2000 to 3500 yuan, depending on location and operational efficiency [1] Group 2 - The payback period for these business models typically ranges from six months to a year, with claims of shorter periods in prime locations, though competition is intense [2] - Key operational factors include product selection, restocking efficiency, and location stability, with risks such as product expiration and equipment failure being significant concerns [3][4] - The article emphasizes that claw machine operations are heavily reliant on location and maintenance, with successful operations often requiring established relationships with venue owners to secure profitable placements [4][11] Group 3 - The article warns that simple, low-barrier businesses often lead to intense competition, resulting in a "red ocean" market where profitability is challenging [5][6] - It suggests that many individuals lack the necessary entrepreneurial mindset, which is crucial for success in independent ventures [8][10] - The importance of customer retention and repeat purchases is highlighted, with factors such as high prize rates and frequent product updates being essential for maintaining customer interest [12] Group 4 - The article discusses the cost structure of claw machines, noting that the cost of prizes and machine maintenance can significantly impact profitability [13][14] - It mentions the second-hand market for claw machines, where prices can be significantly lower due to previous operators exiting the business, creating opportunities for new entrants [13] - The article concludes that successful entrepreneurship requires not just capital but also strategic thinking and market awareness [16]
21日投资提示:华亚智能股东拟合计减持不超3%股份
集思录· 2025-11-20 14:39
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that shareholders of Huaya Intelligent plan to reduce their holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [1] Group 2 - Various convertible bonds are listed with their respective details, including codes, names, types, and announcements regarding adjustments or redemptions [2][6] - Specific convertible bonds are highlighted with their current prices, redemption prices, last trading dates, conversion values, remaining scales, and the proportion of convertible bonds to the underlying stocks [5][8]
20日投资提示:国城转债强赎
集思录· 2025-11-19 13:47
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various convertible bonds, highlighting their redemption status, trading prices, and key dates for conversion and redemption [1][4][6]. Group 1: Convertible Bonds Status - Guocheng Convertible Bond (127019) is subject to strong redemption on November 20, 2025 [1]. - Southeast Convertible Bond (127103) will not undergo adjustment [1]. - Huicheng Convertible Bond (118049) and Haoyuan Convertible Bond (118051) are not subject to strong redemption [1]. - Yinbang Convertible Bond (123252) will not be adjusted [1]. - Zhongjin Convertible Bond (127020) has its last trading day on November 20, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Pricing and Trading Information - Luokai Convertible Bond (113689) current price is 156.168, with a strong redemption price of 100.038, and a last trading day on November 17, 2025 [4]. - Chengfeng Convertible Bond (113628) current price is 153.032, with a last trading day on November 17, 2025 [4]. - Zhongjin Convertible Bond (127020) current price is 124.350, with a strong redemption price of 100.700, and a last trading day on November 20, 2025 [4]. - Hengbang Convertible Bond (127086) current price is 118.195, with a strong redemption price of 100.280, and a last trading day on November 24, 2025 [4]. - Qibin Convertible Bond (113047) current price is 113.481, with a strong redemption price of 101.174, and a last trading day on November 27, 2025 [4]. Group 3: Additional Convertible Bonds Information - Fenghuo Convertible Bond (110062) current price is 106.676, with a redemption price of 106.000, and a last trading day on November 26, 2025 [6]. - Ying19 Convertible Bond (110063) current price is 113.327, with a redemption price of 111.000, and a last trading day on December 12, 2025 [6]. - Hongda Convertible Bond (404003) current price is 54.781, with a redemption price of 118.000, and a last trading day on December 15, 2025 [6]. - Jianguo Convertible Bond (110064) current price is 113.369, with a redemption price of 113.000, and a last trading day on December 16, 2025 [6].
投资人都不鸡娃啊?
集思录· 2025-11-19 13:47
Group 1 - The article discusses a shift in mindset regarding children's education, emphasizing the importance of finding personal passion over societal success [1][2] - It highlights the contrast between wealthy families who invest heavily in children's education and those who adopt a more relaxed approach, leading to feelings of inadequacy among some parents [2][3] - The narrative reflects on the pressures of modern education, with parents feeling compelled to push their children towards high academic achievements despite the potential for limited outcomes [4][11] Group 2 - The text outlines three main barriers to children's success: innate talent, personal ambition, and the prevailing societal trends [7][8][9] - It suggests that the pursuit of elite education may not guarantee success, as many factors, including luck and timing, play significant roles in a child's future [10][11] - The article concludes that a balanced approach to parenting, focusing on well-being rather than solely on academic success, may lead to healthier outcomes for children [13][20]