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那些在孤独中赚钱的基金经理
雪球· 2025-05-02 00:05
Core Viewpoint - The 2024 version of the non-collaborative fund portfolio underperformed the Wind Mixed Equity Fund Index, with a return of 4.46% compared to the index's 8.86% increase, highlighting the challenges faced by many funds in adapting to the market conditions post the "9.24" rally [2][3]. Fund Performance Summary - The top-performing funds include: - China Merchants Quantitative Selection A: 18.15% - Dongfanghong New Power A: 17.64% - Other funds showed significantly lower returns, with some even reporting negative performance, such as: - Jiashi Value Selection A: -0.45% - Guotou Ruili LOF: -2.69% [5]. 2025 Version Selection Criteria - The selection rules for the 2025 version of the non-collaborative portfolio have been slightly adjusted: - All quantitative funds were excluded to avoid data interference, meaning funds like China Merchants Quantitative Selection will not be included [6]. - A requirement was set that the top industry market capitalization should be below 15% to prevent over-concentration in specific sectors [6]. - Funds must have outperformed the Wind Mixed Equity Fund Index for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024 [7]. Non-Collaborative Fund Definition - The definition of non-collaborative funds is based on the frequency of stock holdings across funds, with a median holding frequency of less than 105 being the threshold for inclusion [9]. Final Fund List - After applying the filtering criteria, only 10 funds remained eligible for the non-collaborative portfolio, showcasing a mix of familiar and new fund managers [10][13].
Biotech产业链:康诺亚向右,百奥赛图向左,和铂在中间
雪球· 2025-05-01 01:32
Core Viewpoint - The article compares three biotech companies: 康诺亚 (Kangnuo), 和铂医药 (Hepu), and 百奥赛图 (Bai'ao), highlighting their technological advantages and active business development (BD) strategies, suggesting that each has unique paths to success in the biotech industry [4][5][16]. Group 1: 康诺亚 (Kangnuo) - 康诺亚 possesses multiple technology platforms including monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibodies, and ADCs, covering areas from oncology to autoimmune diseases, with a potential to reach a market value of 20 billion if its IL-4Rα target is commercialized successfully [7]. - The company has been active in BD transactions, engaging in various licensing models, including domestic rights authorization and global rights licensing to major pharmaceutical companies [8]. - Future strategies may involve retaining more domestic rights for self-development while actively pursuing overseas rights sales, as evidenced by recent NewCo transactions [8]. Group 2: 和铂医药 (Hepu) - 和铂医药 has a unique mouse antibody platform that produces various bispecific antibodies, with two products having entered Phase III clinical trials, although one has faced challenges [10]. - The company has primarily focused on BD opportunities, often selling its antibody combinations before advancing them to Phase II trials, reflecting a strategy of minimizing cash burn while leveraging its technology platform [10]. - Recent financial struggles have limited its market capitalization to 10-15 billion, with significant cash burn in 2022, leading to a focus on BD as a primary goal [10]. Group 3: 百奥赛图 (Bai'ao) - 百奥赛图 started with model organisms and expanded into gene editing and drug efficacy evaluation, eventually entering the antibody development field with a focus on high-throughput screening [13]. - The company has seen rapid growth, projecting revenues of 320 million in 2024, an increase of 80%, and has signed 200 drug cooperation agreements, with 100 signed in 2024 alone [13]. - 百奥赛图's business model is similar to 和铂医药 but emphasizes a more integrated approach to antibody development and clinical advancement [14]. Summary - All three companies exhibit strong target development capabilities and flexible BD strategies, with 康诺亚 leaning towards a BioPharma model, 百奥赛图 focusing on CRO for antibody development, and 和铂医药 balancing between innovative drug clinical advancement and antibody development [16].
为什么军工板块的投资难度这么大?
雪球· 2025-05-01 01:32
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者:风卷红旗过大关 来源:雪球 成长股的主升行情,呈现的是公司业绩增速赶不上拔估值的速度!因为新兴产业的产能建设与业 绩释放需要时间,但市场预期却跑的很快! 行业自身的盲盒特征只是一方面的,大多数投资者都是因为看见才会相信必然导致市场预期反复 波动也是重要原因! 周期股的主升行情,如果是由产品价格周期主导的,比如大宗商品,往往是底部区域估值贵的 很,企业甚至大幅亏损,随着供需形势的反转,产品价格的反转,这个能见度很高,比如期货价 格是有目共睹的,但风险在于,对基本面趋势把握不准确,误判供需与产品价格的反转,导致主 观的过早抄底……如果反转确立,现有产能与存货会迅速推动业绩弹性,底部区域市场共识形成 的快,成功抄底的投资者痛苦小……股价越涨估值越便宜,因为产品价格的趋势性上涨往往不是 短期事件,公司业绩爆发式增长,分红也爆发式增长,给人一种红利股的假象……很容易被便宜 的估值与大额分红所麻痹,忽视了周期股的本色…… 雪球三分法是雪球基于"长期投资+资产配置"推出的基金配置理念,通过资产分散、市场分散、时机分散 这三大分散进行 ...
1月股市涨了:这是川普的股市!4月股市跌了:这是拜登的股市!特朗普执政100天,被痛批失败!沃尔玛低头了,145%关税全扛!
雪球· 2025-05-01 01:32
Group 1 - The U.S. economy showed unexpected contraction with a GDP decline of 0.3% in Q1, marking the first quarterly negative growth since 2022, significantly below the expected growth of 0.4% [3][11] - The market reacted sharply to the GDP data, with the Dow Jones dropping nearly 800 points and the Nasdaq falling close to 3% during early trading [3][5] - Following news of potential trade negotiations and tariff adjustments, the market began to recover, reducing most of the earlier losses [5] Group 2 - Major companies like AMD saw significant stock declines, with Supermicro Computer dropping over 11% due to disappointing earnings forecasts [6] - Among the tech giants, Microsoft and Meta reported better-than-expected earnings, with Meta raising its capital expenditure guidance for the year, leading to stock price increases [8] - In contrast, Tesla and Amazon experienced stock declines, with Tesla down 3.4% and Amazon down 1.6% after initial larger drops [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Commerce Department indicated that the GDP decline was primarily due to a 36% surge in preemptive imports before the implementation of Trump's tariff policies, which expanded the trade deficit [11] - Consumer spending growth was weak at only 1.8%, the lowest since mid-2023, contributing to the economic slowdown [11] - Some economists warned that if current tariff policies remain unchanged, the U.S. economy could face stagnation, with a 90% probability of recession predicted by Apollo Global Management's chief economist [12] Group 4 - Trump quickly attributed the economic downturn to his predecessor, claiming it was "Biden's stock market" and asserting that the economy is merely in a transitional phase [14][15] - Criticism arose regarding Trump's economic policies, with some analysts noting that the stock market and dollar performance during his term has been the worst since 1980 [16] - Retail giants like Walmart and Target have begun to absorb tariff costs, indicating a shift in strategy due to supply chain disruptions caused by the tariff war [19][20]
当A股波动率消失时,最应该做的事
雪球· 2025-05-01 01:32
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reassessing investment portfolios during periods of low market volatility and rapid rotation, suggesting that investors should avoid unnecessary trading and focus on strategic adjustments instead [4][48]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent trading volumes in the A-share market have been stagnant, hovering around the trillion mark [4]. - Implied volatility is continuously decreasing, contributing to a sense of boredom in the market [5][6]. - The market is characterized by rapid rotation, where buying often leads to declines and selling leads to gains, creating a challenging environment for investors [8][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to rethink their investment portfolios, as many hold onto losing stocks due to a reluctance to acknowledge mistakes [18][19]. - The concept of "sunk cost" is highlighted, where investors often wait to break even before selling, which can lead to further losses [31][32]. - A suggestion is made to treat investments as cash and reassess how to allocate it, rather than being anchored to the original purchase price [44][46]. Group 3: Timing and Market Behavior - The article notes that during periods of low volatility, it is advisable to refrain from making hasty trades and instead prepare for potential future market fluctuations [50][51]. - It is emphasized that both market rises and falls can present opportunities, with rises allowing for profit realization and falls providing chances to buy at lower prices [60][62]. - The importance of focusing on long-term asset growth rather than short-term fluctuations is stressed, as short-term movements are often random [66][68]. Group 4: Strategic Planning - The article advocates for a strategic approach to investment, suggesting that a well-thought-out strategy can lead to better long-term returns without the need for frequent trading [56][58]. - Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risks and enhance potential returns [70].
股票的安全边际
雪球· 2025-04-30 08:44
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 酒金岁月 来源:雪球 大家认为的安全边际要么是买的便宜 , 要么是高股息率 , 要么是高成长性 , 其实都说了一部 分 , 但没有说到关键上 。 最好的安全边际来自于最好的生意 , 买股票就是买企业 。 茅台为什么好 , 因为他可以逆行周期 , 最差的年景依然独善其身 。 看不透这一点你会认为房 产跟白酒一样 。 招行为什么好 , 因为别的银行通过增发补充资本金时 , 他可以通过利润本身 完成内生增长 。 看不透这一点你会认为民生和招行无差异 。 买的便宜取决于企业业绩未来向上 , 不然股价可以更便宜 , 扇贝可以来回跑 。 高股息率取决 于高股息的长期性和确定性 , 这正是很多企业静态股息率超高我们敬而远之的原因 。 高成长性 取决于成长的确定性和差异性 , 无差异的高成长会迎来价格内卷 , 无确定性的高成长只能昙花 一现 。 好生意可以给人提供巨大的容错空间 , 长期的高确定性可以弥补操作上的高错误率 , 当然这也 取决于你的资金的期限和性质 。 拿短期资金做长期价投 , 这是失败的不二法门 , 加上杠杆加 速了 ...
关注的一些银行24年年报数据整理
雪球· 2025-04-30 08:44
以下文章来源于躺师傅的投资世界 ,作者躺师傅 躺师傅的投资世界 . 格施好学徒,佛系收息人~ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 躺红利摊转债 来源:雪球 银行板块的年报陆陆续续都出完了 , 今天有空就来做个数据整理 , 现在整个银行板块数量也挺 多 , 为减少工作量 , 就从国有行 、 股份行和城商行中各选四家具有代表性的银行做一个数据 对比吧~ 一 、 整体业绩概览 | 营收(亿) | | 同比 | 净利润(亿) | 同比 | 风险加权资 | 同比 | 24年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 产(亿) | | 浅幅 | | 工商银行 8218.03 | | -2.52% | 3658. 63 | 0. 51% | 257108. 55 | 4. 34% | 52. 30% | | 建设银行 7501.51 | | -2.54% | 3355. 77 | 0. 88% | 218545. 90 | -2. 42% | 42. 44% | | 农业银行 71 ...
突发!银行股大跌,科技股全线反弹,A股超3600只个股上涨,指数却微跌,股民调侃道,一鲸落,万物生!
雪球· 2025-04-30 08:44
今日银行板块受一季度业绩影响,集体承压回调,截至收盘,邮储银行跌2.29%,交通银行跌1.32%,建设银行跌3.21%,农业银行跌3.04%,中 国银行跌2.98%,工商银行跌3.58%,招商银行跌3%。 临近假期,先祝大家五一小长假能够玩的开心。今天是4月最后一个交易日,4月份你赚到钱了吗? 今天沪指跌0.23%,深成指涨0.51%,创指涨0.83%。个股涨多跌少,上涨个股超3400只。 盘面上,华为盘古、智谱AI、兵装重组概念板块涨幅居前,保险、银行、电力板块跌幅居前。 板块方面,AI概念股持续强势,人形机器人,消费电子板块迎来不错的反弹;银行股集体调整。 01 一季报业绩下滑,银行集体下跌 | XD邮储银 | 5.12 | -2.29% | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪 SH601658 财报 除权除息 | | | | 交通银行 | 7.47 | -1.32% | | 沪 SH601328 财报 | | | | 建设银行 | 9.06 | -3.21% | | 沪SH601939 财报 | | | | 农业银行 | 5.42 | -3.04% | | 沪 SH601288 财报 | | ...
浅谈煤炭四大金刚
雪球· 2025-04-30 08:44
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: KAIZEN投资之道 二 、 陕西煤业 1.营收利润 : 营业收入 401.62 亿元 , 同比减少 7.3% ; 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 48.05 亿元 , 同比减少 1.23% ; 扣非净利润 45.52 亿元 , 同比下降 14.98% 。 2.业务分析 : 2024 年公司煤炭产量 17048.46 万吨 , 同比增加 4.13% , 煤炭销量 25843.08 万吨 , 同比增加 9.13% , 但煤炭售价 561.30 元 / 吨 , 同比下降 8.50% 。 2025 年一季度煤炭产量 4393.77 万吨 , 同比增长 6% , 自产煤销量 3954.67 万吨 , 同比 增长 5.81% , 但发电量和售电量同比分别下降 22.55% 和22.79% 。 来源:雪球 今天我们谈谈煤炭四大金刚 ( 中国神华 、 陕西煤业 、 中煤能源 、 兖矿能源 ) 2025年一季 度业绩报告 。 在强监管的煤炭行业 , 煤价延续下行趋势 , 市场整体需求乏力 , 煤炭四大金 刚2025 年一季度业绩均受影响 ...
为什么“永久组合”不用考虑止损操作?
雪球· 2025-04-29 08:39
以下文章来源于范范爱养基 ,作者范范 范范爱养基 . 专注基金投资分享,说人话,不拽词!不保证说的都对,但都是当下我最最真实的想法。(雪球号同名) 长按即可参与 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 范范爱养基 来源:雪球 "止损"的关键不在这个步骤本身,而在于其前置步骤 ——如果你在最初买入时就做好了充分的价值判断、仓位管理、风险评估,那么,几乎就不 会存在止损操作! 3类不同标的,处理亏损方式不同 最近看到一个观点,我觉得还挺有道理。 止损是什么? 止损不是一个投资行为,而是一个仓位管理行为,仅仅是对之前仓位管理没做好的修正和弥补罢。 换言之,如果你的投入比例是合理分散的,为什么需要止损? 想想看也是~~ 如果你是All In了某个资产,那就非常需要设置止损点。俗话说"留得青山在",万一你买的资产最后真"归零"了,那就完全失去了东山再起的机 会。 但如果你提前先做好了仓位管理,假设你有100W本金,其中20%在港股市场,甚至,其中某一只港股基金占比只有5%,也就是5万,那么即便这 只基金亏了50%,也不过是浮亏2.5W,占总仓位2.5%。 类似 AL ...