Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Trump's tariff policies have not resolved the issues of trade and fiscal deficits, leading to increased market concerns about the dollar system and economic volatility [1][3][4] - The article emphasizes that China is one of the three major centers in the global supply chain, with a leading position in manufacturing value added and a balanced export structure across various product categories [5][6][7] - Since the trade friction with the US began in 2018, China's exports to the US have significantly decreased, but overall exports have remained robust due to adjustments in export strategies towards regions like ASEAN, Russia, and India [8] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for China to form new trade orders with economies such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and the Middle East, focusing on enhancing cooperation and exploring new growth points in external circulation [9]

一是重票息而轻资本利得。短期内债市或将继续维持震荡格局，重新进入"票息市"，因此我们认为债市更 建议以票息和骑乘等策略博弈静态的曲线，而非抢跑曲线平移。二是博弈策略和券种轮动更胜博弈利率波 段。随着债券市场供给的丰富，后续利差策略和券种轮动空间大幅增加。但对利率波段的博弈更多可能来 源于各类政治经济黑天鹅，可能频繁出现利率下行"一日游"的现象，可遇而不可求。三是债市"安全垫"仍 在于资金。从当日资金利率在 1.65% 左右估计（ DR007 ），资金可能持续成为债市的安全垫， 10Y 国 债在 1.7% 以上就可能意味着正 carry 再起，买盘增加。 报告导读： 一揽子金融政策落地后债市表现克制。后续债市不必悲观，但需要贯彻"新思 维"，包括重票息而轻资本利得、博弈策略和券种轮动更胜博弈利率波段，债市"安全垫"仍 在于资金。 5 月 7 日，国务院新闻办召开新闻发布会介绍了新一轮的一揽子增量金融政策，政策落地后，债市表现相 对克制，其中短端利率小幅下行，而长端利率则有所回调。 其背后是货币政策宽松的想象空间实际并未扩 大（甚至有所缩小），而资金利率下行的现实也有待确认，"双降"的快速到来对于债市实际上形成了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the structural differentiation characteristics of the A-share market in 2024, highlighting the financial performance pressures faced by listed companies amid increasing global economic uncertainty. Group 1: Overall Financial Performance - Total revenue for all A-share (excluding finance/oil) listed companies in 2024 is 56.39 trillion yuan, remaining flat compared to 2023, but the growth rate has shifted from +3.1% to -0.7% [1] - Net profit is 2.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15.1%, worsening from a 3.4% decline in 2023; the proportion of loss-making companies has increased from 20.8% to 26.6% [1] - R&D investment reached 1.82 trillion yuan, growing by 2.5% year-on-year [1] - Capital expenditure totaled 4.16 trillion yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year [1] - The proportion of companies with a Z-score below 1.81 (indicating high credit risk) is 23.2%, an increase of 3.1% from 2023 [1] Group 2: Industry-Specific Financial Performance - The real estate sector is a major drag on revenue and profit, with 98 listed real estate companies reporting a revenue decline of 513.7 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 188.9 billion yuan, the highest decline in the industry; 73% of these companies have a Z-score below 1.81 [2] - The consumer sector shows resilience, with the strongest profitability in the food and beverage (daily consumption) and home appliance (discretionary consumption) industries, achieving weighted ROE of 16.8% and 15.3% respectively [2] - BYD leads in innovation with the highest R&D investment in 2024, totaling 54.2 billion yuan, a 36% increase year-on-year, with cumulative R&D investment exceeding 180 billion yuan [2] - The semiconductor industry benefits from AI and domestic substitution, with capital expenditure increasing by 10.7%, a significant rise from 3.5% in 2023; major wafer foundries like SMIC, Hua Hong, and Jinghe Integrated Circuit have capital expenditures of 54.6 billion yuan, 19.8 billion yuan, and 13.2 billion yuan respectively [2] Group 3: Risk Exposure and Strategic Shifts - The software industry has overtaken media as the sector with the highest goodwill impairment risk, with the ratio of goodwill impairment losses to net profit reaching 519.8% in 2024 [3] - Overseas revenue for all A-share (excluding finance/oil) companies totaled 884.24 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, accounting for 15.7% of total revenue, with 27 out of 33 industries reporting positive growth in overseas revenue [3] - Private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises are experiencing profit declines, with private enterprises seeing a revenue increase of 3.4% but a net profit drop of 19.0%, while local state-owned enterprises' net profit decreased by 12.9% [3][4]

投资建议。 人形机器人高速发展，具身智能是驱动商业化落地的核心因素。机器人智能水平以及实时控制 性能提升将驱动感知性能、算力、通信效率等需求增长，端侧传感、驱控及通信芯片将充分受益。具身智 能落地打开人形机器人成长空间，未来应用前景广阔，带动整机厂商业绩上行。 报告导读： 具身智能是人形机器人商业化落地核心，多模态、强化学习加速智能进化，感 知传感迭代革新， EtherCAT 赋能高速通信，端侧算力持续升级。 本文摘自：2025年5月8日发布的 从"能动"到"灵动"，机器人智能化步入新篇章 舒 迪 ，资格证书编号： S0880521070002 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 市 场空间超万亿，实现具身智能是商业化落 ...

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】 关税加剧滞胀担忧，通胀压力掣肘降息——2025年5月美联储议息会议点评 美东时间 2025 年 5 月 7 日，美联储发布议息会议声明，随后鲍威尔例行召开新闻发布会。 从议息会议 声明和鲍威尔发言中，我们认为主要有五处边际变化：一是美联储按兵不动，但是滞胀预期加剧；二是鲍 威尔不断强调经济前景的不确定性，并认为其与关税前景密切相关；三是鲍威尔认为当前通胀压力主要来 自于关税，而关税谈判存在不确定性；四是鲍威尔给出模糊化的前瞻性指引，维持一如既往偏"鹰"的表 态，但也传递了未来降息的可能性；五是鲍威尔重申美联储的独立性，部分缓解市场担忧。总体来看，本 次美联储议息会议的关键词就是"不确定性"，无论是经济前景、通胀前景，还是降息前景，都充满了不确 定性，而其根源就来自于关税政策的不确定性和关税对经济影响机制的不确定性。 短期经济数据和就业数据韧性进一步延后降息预期，预计后续通胀压力将对降息时间和幅度形成持续掣 肘。 近期公布的美国一季度经济数据和 4 月份非农就业数据仍有一定的韧性，从而整体降息预期有所延 后，叠加鲍威尔的"鹰"派表态，美国联邦基金 ...

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研 究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅号。其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海通研究所名义注册 的，或含有"国泰海通研究"，或含有与国泰海通证券研究所品牌名称相关信息的其他订阅号均不是国泰 海通证券研究所官方订阅号。 本订阅号不是国泰海通证券研究报告发布平台 本订阅号所载内容均来自于国泰海通证券研究所已正式 ...

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】货币宽松"再发力"——5月7日央行一揽子货币政策点评 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前瞻部署、主 动作为。 一揽子三大类 10 项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发力，对实体和资本市场的 全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进 一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增加全年财政 额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外 ，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已经过去。 不 过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从 4 月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需还要进一步巩固的背景 下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是 4 月出口可能还有前期抢出口的支撑，但 5 、 6 月份数 据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需要更多政策支持，三是居民部门资产负债表 压力或未明显缓解。 ...

·概 要 · 5月7日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行行长宣布三大类一共10项金融支持政策，货币宽松明显 发力支持"稳增长、稳预期"，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前 瞻部署、主动作为。一揽子三大类10项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发 力，对实体和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期 预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增 加全年财政额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加 码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已 经过去。不过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从4月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需 还要进一步巩固的背景下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是4月出口可能还有前期 抢出口的支撑，但5、6月份数据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需 要更多政策支持，三 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance growth has turned positive, with technology and certain cyclical sectors showing strong results, particularly in emerging technologies and the "two new" sectors driving growth in automotive, home appliances, and engineering machinery [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth of the entire A-share non-financial sector improved to +4.7% year-on-year, driven by a significant reduction in expense ratios and stabilization of gross margins [2][4] - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware, continues to show strong growth, while cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals and chemicals also reported high growth rates [3][4] Group 2 - The real estate sector has seen some financial indicators improve, with a notable increase in dividend yields, indicating potential investment value [6][7] - In 2024, the revenue growth of key property companies was +4.2%, while profits continued to decline by -28.3%, highlighting a divergence in performance among different companies [7][8] - The average dividend yield for key property companies reached 5.04%, with three companies exceeding 10% [7][9] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector experienced a slowdown, with overall revenue growth of +2% and net profit growth of +4% in 2024, while Q1 2025 showed minimal growth [10][11] - The liquor segment remains stable, with high-end brands showing strong performance, while the consumer goods segment is seeing structural growth opportunities, particularly in snacks and beverages [11][12] - The dairy segment faced challenges, with a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [12][13] Group 4 - The beauty and personal care sector reported a revenue increase of 13% and a slight net profit increase of 0.2% in 2024, with individual segments like personal care showing significant growth [14][15] - The medical aesthetics segment is led by collagen products, while the cosmetics segment showed mixed performance, particularly in the Hong Kong market [15][16] - The sector is expected to benefit from product innovation and the rise of domestic brands, with a focus on long-term growth potential [14][16] Group 5 - The apparel and luxury goods sectors are facing mixed performance, with overseas sports brands showing strong revenue growth while luxury brands are under pressure [18][19] - The U.S. apparel retail market grew by 2.6% in 2024, with outdoor and high-end sports segments performing well [18][19] - The luxury goods sector is cautious about 2025, with many brands indicating limited price increases due to rising costs rather than for revenue generation [21][22] Group 6 - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures in advanced processes, with significant growth projected for 2025 [30][31] - The semiconductor equipment sector reported a revenue increase of 27.01% in 2024, while the materials sector also showed robust growth [31][32] - The valuation of the semiconductor sector remains reasonable, with a focus on growth potential and the performance of leading companies [33] Group 7 - The optical industry is experiencing varied performance, with strong growth in the Apple supply chain while Android-related products face challenges [35][36] - Companies like Crystal Optoelectronics and Lantech Optical reported significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by increased demand for specific products [35][36] - The automotive optical segment showed stable performance, with some companies reporting growth despite seasonal challenges [36] Group 8 - The computer industry is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in the number of companies reporting positive revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 [38][39] - The overall revenue for the computer sector in 2024 was 12,693.99 billion, with a notable recovery in Q1 2025 [39][40] - Large-cap companies are performing more steadily compared to mid and small-cap companies, with AI and energy IT sectors showing significant recovery [40][41]

Group 1 - The article discusses the stabilization and slight recovery of the A-share market following the impact of "reciprocal tariffs," suggesting a balanced investment strategy with a slight tilt towards growth stocks while emphasizing the importance of stock selection and risk control by fund managers [2] - In April, the manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a shift in economic sentiment due to trade tensions [2] - The article highlights that the focus of Sino-US competition extends beyond trade to technology and productivity advantages, suggesting that emerging technologies will remain a key investment theme in the medium to long term [2] Group 2 - For bond funds, the report recommends focusing on government bonds with specific maturities (7-year or 20-year) and suggests a strategy of "bullet" operations to enhance yields [3] - The article notes that global central bank gold purchasing behavior reflects a long-term restructuring of the global monetary system, driven by rising trade protectionism and economic restructuring [3] - It emphasizes that the current gold bull market is distinct due to changes in driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a prolonged cycle for gold investments [3]