Group 1: Robotics Sector - The robotics sector is experiencing accelerated overseas expansion, driven by technological breakthroughs and profitability improvements, leading to a reassessment of value [1] - Wan'an Robotics focuses on AI embodied robots, achieving a global market share of 11.9%, with over 57% in the Japanese market; Cloudwise Technology leads globally in the number of online service robots in hotels [1] - Geekplus has maintained its position as the global leader in warehouse AMR for six consecutive years, with over 70% of its revenue coming from overseas; companies with core technology, global layout, and improving profitability are expected to see value reassessment [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Development - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with major companies like CATL, EVE Energy, and BYD advancing pilot lines and sample validations, with some achieving semi-solid mass production [2] - Full solid-state small batch production is expected to begin between 2025 and 2027; the equipment segment is likely to benefit first from this industrialization process [2] - Leading equipment manufacturers are accelerating product validation and customer onboarding, with companies like Xianlead Smart and Winbond Technology providing comprehensive solutions for key processes [2] Group 3: Other Key Sectors - The forklift sector is benefiting from the rapid development of embodied intelligence, with domestic and international forklift companies, e-commerce logistics firms, and robotics companies making strides in intelligent logistics [3] - The export chain is seeing advantages due to the implementation of Vietnam's tariff policy, which enhances regional manufacturing cost differentials, allowing companies with global capacity and brand channel capabilities to improve profitability and market share [3] - The 3C equipment sector is expected to benefit in the short term from innovations in Apple's hardware products, and in the medium term from supply chain security issues driving new capacity in Southeast Asia [3]

报告导读： 近期AI伴侣EVE火爆出圈，该产品可以通过语音、视频交流互动，并通过给客 户点奶茶等方式，实现更为深度和真实的虚拟陪伴体验，我们认为随着大模型的功能不断 进步，调用成本不断下降，AI应用有望迎来突破。 本周传媒（申万）指数上涨2.70%，位居31个行业第6名，强于沪深300（上涨1.54%）、上证指数（上涨 1.40%）、上证中小（上涨1.43%）、深证成指（上涨1.25%）、创业板指（上涨1.50%）。细分板块龙头 景气持续，建议布局垂直细分领域业绩有望持续高增的投资机会。 AI大模型持续进步，应用端有望迎来突破。 2023年以来国内AI大模型发展迅速，百度、字节、腾讯、华 为等大厂，以及百川智能、月之暗面等创新企业纷纷发布自身的大模型产品，国内大模型进入高速发展 期。我们认为2024年以来Kimi、豆包等大模型逐步出圈，并带来用户使用习惯的养成，2025年以来随着 DeepSeek-R1等模型的发布，性能更强，但成本更低，有望带来下游更为广泛的应用落地和商业化机会。 目前DeepSeek、豆包、元宝、通义千问等大模型用户数均在快速增长，并通过问答互动的方式，逐步取代 传统搜索，成为AI时代新的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing positive policy signals aimed at promoting high-quality development and addressing issues of overcapacity and disorderly competition [1] Group 1: Policy Signals - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the exit of backward production capacity and promote high-quality industry development [1] - Leading photovoltaic glass companies have announced a 30% production cut starting in July to alleviate structural pressures in the industry [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held a meeting with key manufacturing enterprises to emphasize product quality and enhance industrial structure efficiency [1] Group 2: Price Trends - The average price of polysilicon dense material remains stable at 35.0 yuan/kg, while N-type 182 and 210 silicon wafer prices decreased by 0.020 yuan/W and 0.050 yuan/W respectively [2] - PERC battery prices remained stable at 0.035 USD/W, while TOPCON battery prices decreased by 0.015 yuan/W [2] - The average price of double-glass HJT components is 0.83 yuan/W, with no significant changes in other component prices [2] Group 3: Market Performance - The photovoltaic sector's performance from June 27 to July 4 showed a 0.79% change, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points [3] - Year-to-date, the photovoltaic sector has a cumulative change of -3.87%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 8.70 percentage points [3] - As of July 4, the TTM overall valuation of the photovoltaic sector is 18.95 times, ranking in the lower middle compared to other sectors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The tariff policy is entering a practical implementation phase, with risks gradually being released. The acceleration of AI development and the emergence of product innovations in 2026 will significantly benefit the supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Trade Agreements - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, effective from July 2, imposes a 20% tariff on US exports to Vietnam, with transshipped goods facing a 40% tariff. Conversely, Vietnam applies a 0% tariff on US goods. The ongoing Section 232 investigation into semiconductors and electronic products is expected to conclude within 270 days, with the President having 90 days to decide on potential actions [2]. - The easing of tensions between the US and China, highlighted by the recent lifting of restrictions on EDA exports to China, suggests that the negative impact of tariff negotiations on the supply chain will gradually diminish [2]. Group 2: AI Development and Product Innovations - Apple is actively seeking external collaborations to enhance its AI capabilities, particularly in improving Siri through technologies from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. This indicates a potential acceleration in the deployment of Apple's system-level AI [2]. - In 2026, Apple is expected to introduce products featuring 2nm chips, enhancing computational speed, and a new cooling system utilizing steel and copper. Additionally, the first foldable screen product is anticipated to be launched, showcasing advanced industrial design with features such as no creases, ultra-thinness, and high durability, which could lead to a significant increase in shipment volumes over the years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of new business rules aims to better meet the development and scale expansion needs of the Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), enhancing its global influence and supporting the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2]. Summary by Sections Event - On July 4, the People's Bank of China released a notice for public consultation on the draft business rules for the CIPS [2]. - The CIPS is a wholesale payment system specifically for Renminbi cross-border payment and clearing, providing secure, efficient, convenient, and low-cost fund clearing services [2]. Business Rule Changes - The number of financial institutions participating in CIPS has grown from over a hundred in its early days to over a thousand by May 2025, necessitating updates to the original rules [2]. - The original rules were too detailed and restrictive, particularly regarding account management and fund settlement, which limited flexibility for technological upgrades and business innovation [2]. Participant Admission and Custodian Bank Requirements - The new rules relax the admission criteria for direct participants, removing specific requirements and allowing the operating institution to adjust participant management dynamically [3]. - The custodian bank requirement has been broadened from "domestic banks" to "qualified direct participants" [3]. - The detailed operational steps for fund injection have been simplified, retaining only the principle of liquidity management for direct participants [3]. Impact on CIPS and Renminbi Internationalization - The policy adjustments are expected to enhance CIPS's global influence and facilitate the internationalization of the Renminbi by attracting more participants and providing a more efficient cross-border settlement option [3].

报告导读： 中央财经委会议推进全国统一大市场建设，治理企业低价无序竞争，支持海洋 经济高质量发展，推动海上风电规范有序建设，推荐建筑板块龙头和海洋经济标的。 政策推进全国统一大市场建设，治理企业低价无序竞争。 (1)7月1日中央财经委召开第六次会议，强调纵 深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品 质，推动落后产能有序退出。(2)当前国内基建市场较为饱和，存在部分低价竞争现象，政策支持治理低价 无须竞争提升产品品质，有利于建筑头部企业凭借技术优势提升利润空间，同时产业链受益也利好建筑板 块发展。 政策支持海洋经济高质量发展，推动海上风电规范有序建设。 (1)中央财经委会议指出，推动海洋经济高 质量发展，要加强顶层设计，加大政策支持力度，鼓励引导社会资本积极参与发展海洋经济。要做强做优 做大海洋产业，推动海上风电规范有序建设。(2)推荐世界最大港口设计及建设企业，布局新建深海原创技 术策源地。推荐具有新型岸桥等港口产品，海上风电业务包括风机塔筒的制造及安装等。推荐海上综合能 源一体化业务模式，建设运营海上风电等大数据平台。推荐加快构建海上风电、数字建造、新型储能 ...

Market Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, which is necessary for building momentum for new highs. The Shanghai Composite Index has risen nearly 500 points, approaching 3500 points, indicating a positive market sentiment [3] - The market is expected to experience a period of horizontal consolidation, with short-term upward adjustments slowing down. Key factors influencing this include geopolitical tensions, economic data, and upcoming mid-year reports [3] Economic Governance - Recent economic policies are shifting towards addressing issues like "anti-involution" and preventing disorderly expansion, which opens new investment opportunities. The focus on improving corporate cash flow and settling debts is highlighted as a potential fiscal highlight for the second half of the year [4] - The central government's emphasis on "anti-involution" indicates a significant shift in economic governance, aiming for sustainable development rather than mere scale expansion [4] Industry Comparison - The market is expected to show characteristics of high-low switching in the short term, with a focus on sectors like electronics, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture. The financial sector remains strong, with continued interest in high-dividend stocks [5] - The report recommends sectors benefiting from recent policy changes, including steel, construction materials, and machinery, while also highlighting themes like production limits to stabilize prices and the low-altitude economy [5] Global Economic Overview - In the U.S., the job market remains stable, with a 1.7% increase in the S&P 500 index and a 1.1% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index. Commodity prices have also seen significant increases, indicating a positive economic outlook [7] - In Europe, the Eurozone's HICP inflation rate has slightly increased, while the unemployment rate remains low, suggesting a stable economic environment [8] Southbound Capital Flow - The first quarter of 2025 saw a record net inflow of southbound capital, primarily driven by institutional investors. The total net inflow from various investment entities is estimated to be around 100 billion yuan [14][16] - Different institutions show varying preferences for sectors, with significant inflows into technology and banking sectors. The report anticipates that the total net inflow for the year could exceed 100 billion yuan, driven by public and insurance funds [16] Consumer Goods Sector - The health supplement market is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of 232.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase. The market is expected to expand due to changing consumer demographics and increasing health awareness [20] - Key segments within the health supplement market, such as fish oil and coenzyme Q10, are experiencing rapid growth, driven by consumer demand for specific health benefits [21]

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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the adjustments in monetary policy framework, emphasizing the shift towards a more neutral stance on price signals and the management of liquidity, which may lead to a consistent pattern of short-term interest rates declining ahead of long-term rates [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The second quarter monetary policy meeting indicates a shift from "timely reserve requirement and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasping the implementation strength and rhythm of policies," reflecting a more neutral approach [1]. - The central bank's cautious stance on broad monetary policy tools aligns with the need to avoid excessive market trading following initial cuts [1]. - The adjustments in liquidity management since mid-2024 show a clear distinction between guiding market pricing and influencing supply-demand dynamics [1][3]. Group 2: Constraints on Monetary Policy - The constraints on broad monetary policy are driven by two main factors: supporting economic growth by lowering financing rates for the real economy and maintaining stability in the financial system, particularly avoiding excessively low long-term bond rates [2]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is influenced by yield differentials, with three key characteristics observed: bond market rates affecting deposit rate adjustments, equity market performance impacting fund outflows, and the dispersed nature of fund outflows [2]. Group 3: Long-term Liquidity Mechanism Changes - Following the dual cuts in May, the pace of liquidity easing has slowed due to changes in the liquidity adjustment framework, highlighting two significant shifts: the opportunity cost of reserve requirement cuts remains high, and the pricing of medium to long-term liquidity is now a "soft connection" with policy rates [3]. Group 4: Long-term Bond Rates Outlook - The potential for long-term bond rates to decline hinges on the performance of one-year time deposits; if these rates drop further, it could lead to a breakthrough in ten-year government bond rates [4]. - The relationship between one-year time deposit rates and ten-year government bond rates remains strong, with expectations that continued declines in deposit rates will facilitate downward movement in long-term bond rates [4].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, leading to expansion and advancements in solid-state battery technology, which is expected to create investment opportunities for equipment manufacturers [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Recovery and Expansion - The traditional lithium battery industry is gradually recovering, with an increase in production capacity driven by solid-state battery requirements, presenting new investment opportunities for lithium equipment companies [2]. - According to research from DDT, by 2025, China's battery manufacturers are projected to produce 128 GWh of power and energy storage batteries, reflecting a 4% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 37% increase year-on-year. Energy storage cells are expected to account for approximately 30.3% of production, while ternary cells will represent about 17.9% [2]. - From January to April 2025, the lithium battery industry chain has planned 123 expansion projects with a total investment exceeding 340 billion yuan, indicating a positive outlook for the lithium equipment industry [2]. Group 2: Solid-State Battery Development - Driven by market demand, battery companies are accelerating their development of next-generation solid-state battery technologies, with significant progress reported by companies such as CATL, BYD, and others [3]. - CATL has achieved a breakthrough in energy density exceeding 500 Wh/kg with a sulfide and halide composite electrolyte system, and aims for small-scale production of solid-state batteries by 2027 [3]. - EVE Energy has completed the development of soft-pack sulfide solid-state battery samples and plans to launch a high-power, safe solid-state battery for hybrid applications by 2026 [3]. Group 3: Equipment Advancements - Equipment is a critical bottleneck for the industrialization of solid-state batteries, and various lithium equipment manufacturers are actively developing related products [4]. - Leading companies like Xianfeng Intelligent and Winbond Technology have successfully delivered solid-state battery equipment to domestic battery manufacturers, including wet coating and rolling equipment [4]. - Multiple companies are enhancing their process layouts to support the mass production of solid-state batteries, indicating a robust development in equipment technology [4].