Core Viewpoint - The health supplement industry is poised for transformation driven by new channels and customer segments, leading to increased demand for functional products and innovation opportunities [1][2]. Market Overview - The health supplement market in China is projected to reach 232.3 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4%. Compared to the U.S., there is significant room for growth in penetration rates across all age groups, particularly as younger consumers develop habits and the population ages [2][3]. - The market is characterized by a fragmented landscape, with the top three companies (Tongrentang, Amway, and H&H) holding a combined market share of 22% [2]. Channel and Demand Dynamics - New channels, particularly e-commerce platforms like Douyin, are expected to drive functionalization in the health supplement industry, with Douyin's GMV for health supplements increasing by 44% year-on-year [3]. - The rise of new customer segments, including younger consumers and those seeking specific health benefits, is creating opportunities for new brands and product categories [3]. Product Category Insights - Fish Oil: Market size between 5-10 billion, with high growth potential due to its anti-inflammatory and beauty benefits [4]. - Coenzyme Q10: Market size of 4.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17%, driven by demand from women and stress-related health concerns [4]. - Probiotics: Market size exceeds 10 billion, focusing on gut health and extending to weight management, with top brands achieving over 1 billion in retail sales [4]. - Oral Beauty Supplements: Market size exceeds 10 billion, with high average prices and rapid growth in innovative ingredients [4]. - Basic Nutrients: Vitamins, minerals, and proteins have market sizes of 32.9 billion, 27.1 billion, and 11.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 5%, and 1% [4]. Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing a shift towards product innovation, with traditional brands facing competition from new entrants that leverage unique ingredients and formulations [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic equity assets experienced a broad increase in June 2025, while gold assets recorded a decline amid significant volatility [1][2] Asset Performance Summary - In June 2025, the returns for various domestic asset allocation strategies were as follows: - BL Strategy 1: 0.87% for June, 1.84% year-to-date - BL Strategy 2: 0.86% for June, 1.92% year-to-date - Risk Parity Strategy: 0.58% for June, 2.33% year-to-date - Macro Factor-Based Strategy: 0.75% for June, 2.26% year-to-date [1][3] Major Asset Index Movements - Key asset indices in June 2025 showed the following performance: - CSI 1000: +5.47% - Nanhua Commodity Index: +4.03% - CSI Convertible Bonds: +3.34% - Hang Seng Index: +2.86% - CSI 300: +2.5% - China Government Bond Total Wealth Index: +0.58% - China Corporate Bond Total Wealth Index: +0.3% - SHFE Gold: -0.84% [2] Correlation Analysis - The correlation between major indices over the past year is as follows: - CSI 300 and China Government Bond Total Wealth Index: -37.19% - China Government Bond Total Wealth Index and Nanhua Commodity Index: 44.4% - CSI 300 and Nanhua Commodity Index: -22.94% [2] Macro Economic Insights - As of the end of June 2025, key macroeconomic indicators include: - Manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, slightly recovering but still below the expansion threshold - Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index at 50.5%, indicating expansion - May CPI down 0.1% year-on-year, core CPI up to 0.6%, PPI down -3.3% - DR007 fluctuating at low levels, with 1-year interbank deposit rates stable around 1.7% - New RMB loans in May at 592.3 billion, primarily driven by government bonds, while corporate bond financing decreased - RMB facing potential short-term pressure due to the Fed's hawkish stance - June liquidity through MLF and reverse repos exceeding 300 billion, indicating ample market liquidity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job market shows signs of recovery with better-than-expected non-farm payrolls in June, but underlying weaknesses suggest a slowing trend, making it unlikely for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the short term [1][2]. Non-Farm Data Summary - **Positive News**: - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, an increase from 144,000 in May, with a three-month average of 150,000 jobs added [1]. - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June, contrary to market expectations of a rise to 4.3% [1]. - Revisions to previous months' job additions showed slight upward adjustments of 5,000 and 11,000 for May and April, respectively [1]. - **Concerns**: - The increase in non-farm jobs was primarily driven by government employment, raising questions about sustainability, while private sector job growth showed a notable decline [1]. - Although the unemployment rate decreased, the labor force participation rate also declined [1]. - There was a decrease in average work hours, and wage growth on a month-over-month basis continued to slow [1]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to the current state of the job market not showing significant deterioration and the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The combination of gold and stablecoins has advantages, but future development needs to overcome certain obstacles. If mechanisms are improved, gold-backed stablecoins can serve as a store of value and, under specific conditions, as a means of payment and settlement [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Stablecoin Overview - Gold stablecoins are emerging as a new favorite in the cryptocurrency market, following the popularity of dollar-backed stablecoins. They are cryptocurrencies pegged to gold, sharing characteristics such as value stability and decentralization [2]. - The gold stablecoin market is currently dominated by two main players: Tether's XAUT and Paxos' PAXG, each holding nearly half of the market share. As of June 2025, the market capitalization of gold stablecoins is projected to reach $1.6 billion, accounting for approximately 0.67% of the total stablecoin market [2]. Group 2: Advantages of Gold Stablecoins - Compared to gold ETFs and futures, stablecoins enhance the convenience of gold trading through their decentralized nature: - They eliminate time and space constraints, allowing for global transactions at any time via blockchain technology. - They lower investment barriers by enabling fractional ownership of gold bars, with the ability to split ownership down to six decimal places (approximately 0.02 yuan). - They reduce transaction costs, with low fees (e.g., PAXG charges 0.02%) [3]. Group 3: Challenges Facing Gold Stablecoins - There are three main challenges that gold stablecoins must overcome: - The inherent conflict between the monetary functions of gold and stablecoins. Stablecoins primarily enhance payment and settlement functions, while gold serves more as a store of value, making their combination somewhat forced [4]. - Gold stablecoins have not fully realized their potential for value stability. The low number of holders leads to low trading turnover, shallow market depth, and significant deviations from London gold prices [4]. - There are issues with credit verification that contradict the decentralized and trustless nature of blockchain. Regulatory frameworks for physical collateral-backed stablecoins are still lagging, with existing legislation primarily covering fiat-backed stablecoins, leaving gold stablecoins facing compliance uncertainties [4].

Core Insights - The article focuses on the management of accounts receivable in the property industry, emphasizing its significant impact on cash flow and potential dividend sustainability [1] - It analyzes the cash flow management changes of 30 sample companies, highlighting the increasing scale of accounts receivable since 2021 due to industry downturns and slower payment collection from third-party owners [1] Accounts Receivable Growth Trends - The total accounts receivable of the 30 tracked listed property companies reached 29.18 billion, 48.32 billion, 68.34 billion, 74.25 billion, and 75.37 billion from 2020 to 2024, with growth rates of +42.6%, +65.6%, +41.4%, +8.7%, and +1.5% respectively [2] - Since 2023, the growth rate of accounts receivable has fallen below that of operating revenue, indicating a significant slowdown [2] Changes in Related Party Transactions - The proportion of accounts receivable from related parties has decreased from 47% to 39% over the past five years, while third-party receivables have increased from 53% to 61% [2] - The risk from related parties is gradually diminishing, with the proportion of related party receivables for companies with parent company risks dropping from 91% in 2019 to 44% in 2024 [2] Payment Collection Challenges - The aging of accounts receivable has increased, with the proportion of receivables due within one year dropping from 89% in 2019 to 58% in 2024, indicating greater difficulty in collection [3] - The provision for accounts receivable has significantly increased from 4% in 2019 to 26% in 2024, reflecting heightened risk [3] - The overall collection rate for sample companies has declined from 90% to 78% between 2019 and 2024, with companies facing parent company risks experiencing lower collection rates [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with independent business competitiveness and reduced related party transactions are deemed important for evaluation [3] - Companies with strong parent company backgrounds and high rankings in property sales can provide performance support while mitigating related party receivable risks [3] - Commercial management companies are favored due to their better collection rates and lower instances of long-term arrears [3]

Group 1: Monthly Strategy Insights - The report indicates that in July, small-cap stocks are likely to outperform, supported by a monthly quantitative model signal of 0.83, suggesting an overweight position in small-cap stocks [1] - The long-term outlook favors small-cap stocks over the next one to two years, with the current market capitalization factor valuation spread at 1.15, which is lower than historical highs of 1.7 to 2.6 [1] - The report acknowledges a previous misjudgment in June regarding style allocation, where the expected excess return was 0%, and emphasizes a strategy of favoring small-cap stocks unless strong signals for large-cap stocks are present [1] Group 2: Value and Growth Style Rotation - The monthly quantitative model signal for value and growth style rotation is 0.33, indicating a preference for growth stocks in July, which historically tend to outperform during this month [2] - Year-to-date, the value-growth style rotation strategy has achieved an excess return of 6.2% compared to an equal-weight benchmark [2] Group 3: Factor Performance Tracking - Among eight major factors, volatility and value factors showed positive returns this month, while large-cap and liquidity factors exhibited negative returns [2] - Year-to-date, volatility and momentum factors have also shown positive returns, with large-cap and liquidity factors remaining negative [2] - In the analysis of 24 style factors, beta, industry momentum, and short-term reversal factors performed well this month, while large-cap, mid-cap, and liquidity factors did not [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding accounts receivable in the property management industry, particularly in the context of cash flow management and dividend sustainability. It highlights the significant changes in accounts receivable due to recent industry downturns and the need for a balanced development model focusing on scale, quality, and profit [3][4]. Accounts Receivable Analysis - The total accounts receivable for 30 tracked listed property companies increased from 29.18 billion to 75.37 billion from 2020 to 2024, with growth rates of +42.6%, +65.6%, +41.4%, +8.7%, and +1.5% respectively. Notably, from 2023 onwards, the growth rate of accounts receivable is lower than that of operating income, indicating a significant slowdown [3]. - The proportion of accounts receivable from related parties has decreased from 47% to 39% over the past five years, while third-party receivables have increased from 53% to 61%. This trend suggests a gradual reduction in related party risks as the industry stabilizes [4]. - The aging of accounts receivable has worsened, with the proportion of receivables due within one year dropping from 89% in 2019 to 58% in 2024. Consequently, the provision for bad debts has risen sharply from 4% to 26% during the same period, reflecting increased collection difficulties [4]. Investment Recommendations - Companies that demonstrate independent business competitiveness and can effectively reduce related party transactions are deemed favorable. Additionally, firms with strong parent company backgrounds and high rankings in property sales are likely to provide performance support while mitigating related party risks [5]. - Property management companies with natural advantages in merchant payment collection, low long-term arrears, controlled accounts receivable growth, adequate provisions, healthy aging structures, and high collection rates are recommended for investment [5].

报告导读： 2025 年 1-4 月全社会用电量增幅较弱导致火电需求下降 4.1% ，我们认为 这可能是中期对于煤炭需求端压力最大的时刻，煤炭的需求底部已现。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称：从用电结构变化看电煤需求底部支撑——煤炭行业电煤需求深度研究 报告日期：2025.07.02 报告作者： 黄涛 （分析师），登记编号： S 0880515090001 王楠 瑀 ( 研究助理 ) ，登记编号：S 0880123060041 扫码关注 星标不迷路 国泰海通证券研究所官方公众号 海量研报 | 热门活动 | 视听 内容 从全社会用电量的结构变化看用电核心产业变迁，经济对于电力的影响在快速削弱 。过去二十年来，二产 用电（主要是制造业）是拉动电力需求增长的核心，由于制造业与经济的强相关性，也造成了市场对于经 济与电力需求强相关的固有概念。但我们观察到电力消费弹性系数（用电量增速/GDP增速）在2018年以 后快速从历史均值的1左右提升至1.3-1.4，背后反映的是用电结构正在发生里程碑式的变化，三产（主要 是新能源车充换电、AI等）及城乡居民用电（电气化率提升）在2024年已经占到边际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that changes in downstream channel operations are catalyzing industry reshuffling, and the wave of intelligentization is expected to further expand the competitive advantages of leading brands [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on leading brands with strong capabilities in branding, channels, and manufacturing, which are likely to benefit from the rising concentration in the industry due to the wave of intelligentization [2]. - The demand for commercial fitness venues is contracting, although the long-term trend remains positive. Despite the effective control of the pandemic since 2023, the number of offline fitness venues in China has continued to decline, with a 13% drop to 117,000 venues compared to 2022. Fitness studios experienced the smallest decline at 7.36%, while general fitness venues saw the largest drop of 22% [2]. - The number of fitness members and the penetration rate of fitness enthusiasts have also been decreasing since peaking in 2021, with the number of fitness members falling to below 70 million and the coverage rate dropping to under 5% by 2023 [2]. - However, from a long-term perspective, with stable growth in disposable income and an increasing pursuit of high-quality living standards, downstream demand is expected to maintain steady growth [2]. Market Analysis - China's manufacturing advantages are prominent, and the export market for fitness training equipment is substantial. According to customs data, China's exports of treadmills and other fitness training equipment grew rapidly in 2020 and 2021, with treadmill exports reaching 11.12 billion yuan and exports of general sports, gymnastics, or competitive goods totaling 20.79 billion yuan in 2021. The total export value of other fitness and rehabilitation equipment was 45.85 billion yuan [3]. - Although there was a decline in these export figures in 2022, a recovery trend was observed in 2023. Overall, the domestic fitness equipment industry has achieved comparative advantages in production capacity and cost through industrial cluster effects, effectively opening up export markets [3]. Competitive Landscape - AI-enabled products are expected to enhance the competitive advantages of leading brands in the industry [4].

报告导读： 固态电池是下一代高性能电池的发展方向，短期氧化物半固态电池落地放量， 长期硫化物全固态电池前景广阔，材料端高弹性，设备端高确定性。 投资建议： 我们认为固态电池凭借着在安全性、能量密度等方面的优势，将成为未来高性能电池重点的发 展方向，在消费电池、新能源汽车、低空等领域有着广阔的市场空间。固态电池较现有电池在部分材料与 设备环节存在较大差异，其兴起将给新型材料和设备带来庞大的增量市场。前瞻布局固态电池及关键材料 与设备的企业受益。 固态电池是未来高性能电池的重要发展方向。 固态电池在安全性、能量密度等方面有着颠覆性优势，顺应 市场需求，并在政策刺激下加速发展。当前主要分化出了两条主要路线，短期来看氧化物半固态路线相对 成熟，和现有电池体系设备兼容度较高，已产业化落地，有望放量。但由于氧化物固态电解质存在离子电 导率较低的缺陷，众多企业布局了潜力更大的硫化物全固态路线。 材料端：与现有体系存在较大差异的新型材料具有高弹性。 正极的选择为有更大理论比容量的高镍三元及 富锂锰基，适配固态电池体系的高能量密度特性。负极的迭代方向为硅基负极和锂金属负极，进一步推升 能量密度。固态电池技术路线或冲击传统隔膜产 ...