Core Viewpoint - The application scenarios of stablecoins are continuously expanding, with the future scale expected to reach $3.5 trillion [1][2]. Group 1: Application Scenarios - Stablecoins have evolved from their inception in 2014 with USDT, initially focusing on cryptocurrency trading, to various applications including cross-border trade settlements and decentralized finance (DeFi) [1]. - Four main scenarios for stablecoin application have emerged: 1) Cryptocurrency trading, supporting transactions of BTC, ETH, RWA assets, and NFTs [1]. 2) Cross-border payments, enabling point-to-point instant transfers without intermediaries [1]. 3) Consumer payments, integrating stablecoins into the internet finance system for lower-cost and faster transactions [1]. 4) Traditional capital markets, allowing tokenization of assets like foreign exchange and securities, enhancing asset usability and transferability [1]. Group 2: Future Scale Estimation - The future scale of stablecoins is projected to reach $3.5 trillion through four key scenarios: 1) In the cryptocurrency sector, with a neutral market growth of 10%, stablecoins are expected to reach $363.3 billion by 2030, maintaining an 8.22% market share [2]. 2) In cross-border payments, assuming a 20% market share, the demand is estimated at $2.9 trillion [2]. 3) For daily consumer payments, a 10% market share translates to $121.6 billion [2]. 4) In traditional capital markets, under a neutral scenario, stablecoin demand is projected to be $133.3 billion [2].

每周一景： 云南兰坪澜沧江山谷河流村庄风光 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【煤炭】新能源步入下半场，电煤压力最大已过 投资建议： 近年来伴随着新能源装机高增，新能源发电量高速增长，对煤电的挤压效益日益明显，市场担忧在新能源的挤压下未来煤电将进入负增长阶段， 从而导致电煤消费进入下行通道。而我们认为新能源高速发展时代已过，2025年起随着新能源"430、531"新政出台，并且考虑到当前电网巨大的消纳压力 和新能源项目盈利性下降明显，我们判断未来新能源发电将减速，对煤电的边际冲击减弱，我们测算电煤的需求拐点或将在2027年。 新能源步入下半场，电煤已过压力最大时刻，2026年压力缓解，2027年有望迎来向上拐点。 我们认为新能源新政带来的未来现金流确定性下降，将有望促 使新能源装机开始下降，2024年将可能成为历史新能源装机的大顶，也意味着对于火电替代压力最大的在2025年。而展望整体全社会用电量的需求端，随着 近年来用电结构变化，以新能源汽车、AI相关、储能为主导驱动力的第三产业及城乡居民用电成为拉动边际用电量提升的主要方向，有望推动全社会用电量稳 步增长。我们判断随着需求端的稳步增长，与2025年6月开始新能源 ...

Core Insights - The online consumption power of male users in China is increasing, particularly among those under 30, with a notable rise in high-end spending over 2000 yuan, driven by self-indulgent and stress-relief consumption needs in gaming, trendy toys, sports, and technology products [1][3] Group 1: Gaming - Male users account for nearly 70% of the gaming market, with the industry experiencing sustained growth during the summer season [1][3] - In May 2025, a total of 144 game licenses were issued, marking a new monthly high, which is expected to boost search traffic for gaming on platforms like Baidu starting in July [3] Group 2: Trendy Toys - The domestic IP toy market is growing robustly, with sci-fi mecha IPs being particularly popular among male consumers [1][3] - EDC (Everyday Carry) products have emerged as a rapidly growing segment, with 80% of EDC users being male, and sales during the 2025 618 shopping festival saw over a fourfold year-on-year increase [3] Group 3: Sports - Males are the primary audience for sports viewership, and there is a continuous increase in fitness-related demands [1][3] Group 4: Technology Consumption - Young and middle-aged males exhibit dual characteristics of tech-savvy and quality-oriented consumption, with rapid growth in outdoor cameras and gaming consoles [1][3] - By April 2025, the monthly active user (MAU) count for male users in China is projected to reach 634 million, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tactile sensors are a critical bottleneck in the hardware side of general humanoid robots, with significant growth potential as they can permeate from hands to the entire body, leading to a vast market opportunity in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Potential - The global tactile sensor market is projected to grow from $15.33 billion in 2024 to $35.59 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 12.8% [2]. - The market for tactile sensors could reach approximately 1 trillion yuan when humanoid robot production reaches 100 million units, indicating a massive blue ocean opportunity [1][2]. Group 2: Technology Landscape - The main technical routes for tactile sensors include piezoresistive (37% market share) and capacitive (28% market share) technologies, with various players in the market yet to go public [2]. - The tactile sensor industry is characterized by multiple technology routes, with a need for integration of materials, manufacturing, and algorithms to produce flexible tactile sensors suitable for robots [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The current stage of humanoid robots is at L3 and below, akin to the capabilities of a 4-7 year old child, with tactile sensing primarily focused on dexterous hands [2]. - As the complexity of tasks and application scenarios expand, tactile sensing is expected to extend from hands to arms, legs, torso, and face, indicating substantial growth potential [2].

Core Viewpoint - The market uptrend is expected to continue, supported by technical indicators and optimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.19, lower than the previous week (1.36), indicating current market liquidity is 1.19 times above the average level of the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.79 from 0.95, reflecting increased investor optimism regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.98% and 1.62%, respectively, maintaining trading activity at 66.75% and 75.52% percentiles since 2005 [2]. Macro Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight fluctuations, with weekly increases of 0.05% and 0.12%, respectively [2]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5 and above the expected 49.3; the Caixin manufacturing PMI for June was 50.4, higher than the previous 48.3 [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke above the SAR indicator on June 24, signaling a buy [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 228, placing it in the 88.8% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 3 out of 5, with both trend and weighted models indicating positive signals [2]. Market Performance - The SSE 50 index rose by 1.21%, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, the CSI 500 index went up by 0.81%, and the ChiNext index gained 1.5% during the last week [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 20.0 times, positioned at the 60.1% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observations - The crowding degree for high earnings growth factors has significantly increased [3]. - The crowding degrees for small-cap factors, low valuation factors, high earnings factors, and high earnings growth factors are 0.66, -0.10, -0.21, and 0.15, respectively [3]. - The industry crowding degrees are relatively high in banking, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, retail, and non-bank financial sectors, with construction materials and steel showing notable increases [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent increase in the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion, while alleviating immediate debt crisis concerns, may lead to short-term supply shocks in US Treasury bonds, resulting in upward pressure on interest rates [1][3][4] Group 2 - The "Great and Beautiful" Act passed by the US Congress aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade, which is expected to create a historical high in bond supply that the market needs to absorb [1][2] - Historical context shows that the US has raised the debt ceiling over seventy times since its establishment in 1917, indicating that the debt crisis is more a product of political maneuvering rather than a genuine sovereign credit risk [2][4] - The increase in the debt ceiling temporarily removes the risk of default, but it also leads to significant supply shocks in the Treasury market, with expectations of rising interest rates, particularly if the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.5% [3][4] - The ongoing trend of increasing fiscal deficits and debt expansion could accumulate risks that may spill over into the global financial market if not addressed fundamentally [4]

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in Q2, with a projected 7% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic and stable domestic ticket prices [1][3][4] - The summer travel season is anticipated to reach its first peak, driven by school holidays, leading to an optimistic supply-demand outlook and an expected rise in both passenger load factor and ticket prices [1][4] - The decline in jet fuel prices by 13% year-on-year in July is expected to positively impact profitability during the summer travel period, as the industry enters a low supply growth era [1][3] Group 2: Oil Shipping Industry - OPEC+ is set to continue increasing production by 550,000 barrels per day in August, which is expected to gradually reflect in the oil shipping demand and performance in the second half of the year [2][4] - The average TCE for VLCC in Q2 is estimated at $42,000, showing a significant improvement compared to Q1, indicating a recovery in the oil shipping sector [3][4] - The oil shipping industry is expected to benefit from the anticipated increase in demand and improved market conditions, alongside the potential for lower oil prices [2][4] Group 3: Highway Transportation - The highway transportation sector is projected to maintain resilient traffic demand, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase in passenger flow and a 2.9% increase in freight volume observed in April and May [3][4] - The ongoing optimization of debt and reduction in financial costs are expected to support steady growth in the performance of highway companies [3][4]

报告导读： 煤炭价格见底回升，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预计 未来 3 个月是关键的基本面验证时点。 煤价继续回升， " 反内卷 " 下行业供给逻辑有望持续改善。 2025 年 7 月 1 日中央财经委会议进一步明 确"反内卷"，要求"依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。 我们认为"反内卷"有望进一步改善煤炭行业供给结构，叠加当下行业供给和需求双双好转，有望带动煤炭 价格加速回升，改善行业供需格局。 1 ）需求来看， 2025 年 1-4 月，全社会用电量增速仅 3.1% ，大 幅度低于 2024 年的 6.8% ，同时新能源大幅装机也继续倒逼火电，导致 1-4 月火电发电量同比下降 4.1% 。但从 5 月开始，伴随天气的快速转热，全社会用电量增速也提升至 4.4% ，带动火电发电量已经 由负转正至 1.2% 。我们认为随着 6 月底华东区域全面出梅，全国将正式进入盛夏，从当前气象数据显 示今年夏天气温较历史平均更高，旺季需求日耗有望至少较当前抬升，需求端有望呈现稳中有升的局面。 2 ）供给来看， 5 月全国原煤产量 4 亿吨， 4 月开始全国产量 ...

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act passed in the U.S. Congress will increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to a significant surge in U.S. Treasury bond issuance, creating historical supply challenges for the market [3] - The act proposes a $4 trillion tax cut and a reduction of at least $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates will result in an additional $2.8 trillion deficit over the same period [3][4] - Historical data shows that the U.S. has raised the debt ceiling over seventy times since its establishment in 1917, indicating that the so-called "debt crisis" is primarily a political tool rather than a genuine sovereign credit risk [4][6] Group 2 - The recent increase in the debt ceiling alleviates short-term default risks but introduces significant supply-side shocks to the Treasury market, with upward pressure on short-term Treasury yields [5] - The upcoming peak in Treasury maturities in 2025, combined with a growing fiscal deficit, will necessitate increased Treasury issuance, which is expected to drive up yields, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [5][6] - The long-term risks associated with deferred debt issues include rising interest rates, concerns over fiscal sustainability, and increased market risk premiums, which could spill over into the global financial market [6] Group 3 - The electricity market is experiencing upward pressure on prices, with expectations that electricity price increases may outpace coal price rises due to extreme weather conditions and increased demand for thermal power generation [11][12] - The national electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts, with significant contributions from air conditioning loads, indicating a robust demand environment [12] - The introduction of new high-voltage direct current projects aims to enhance electricity supply and optimize pricing structures, reflecting a strategic shift in energy management [13]

Core Viewpoint - The trading heat has shown signs of recovery, with strong performance in electronic cloth and anti-involution themes, while PCB and performance pre-increase themes remain robust. Attention should be paid to technology and supply-demand improvement directions [1] Group 1: Trading Heat Recovery - The average daily trading volume of hot themes reached 507 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.63%. Since June, the overall trading heat of themes has rebounded [1] - The structure of hot themes is shifting rapidly, with solid-state batteries and cross-border payment themes experiencing pullbacks, while anti-involution related sectors such as steel and photovoltaics lead the gains [1] - Bank stocks have seen net inflows, while themes related to losses and small-cap stocks have experienced significant net outflows [1] Group 2: Theme Summaries Theme 1: Production Restriction and Price Stabilization - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition in enterprises. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The photovoltaic industry has seen a significant increase in capacity and installation, but prices have dropped sharply. Steel prices and raw material prices have weakened due to severe supply-demand imbalances [2] - Recommendations include focusing on the photovoltaic and lithium battery supply chains, as well as sectors like steel and pig farming where supply-side improvement expectations are rising [2] Theme 2: Low-altitude Economy - The Civil Aviation Administration has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on planning, airworthiness certification, market regulation, and flight operation supervision [2] - The establishment of non-restricted airspace opens physical space for low-altitude economic development, while accelerated airworthiness certification enhances operational space [2] - Recommendations include companies involved in core components of low-altitude flying vehicles and those providing low-altitude services such as air traffic management and infrastructure [2] Theme 3: AI New Infrastructure - Overseas cloud computing leaders have revised their capital expenditure expectations upward, while domestic intelligent computing center investments continue to progress [3] - Microsoft reported a revenue of 70.1 billion USD and a net profit of 25.82 billion USD for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Azure cloud business growth rate is expected to reach 34%-35% [3] - Recommendations include companies benefiting from increased capital expenditure expectations of overseas cloud vendors and those in the domestic computing industry chain [3] Theme 4: Marine Economy - The Central Financial Committee highlighted the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing the enhancement of independent innovation capabilities in marine technology [3] - The marine production value exceeds 10 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.8% of the national GDP. Marine ship engineering, marine equipment, marine power, and marine tourism are leading in growth [3] - Recommendations include investments in offshore wind power, oil and gas extraction, and communication power infrastructure, as well as high-end marine equipment and deep-sea detection equipment [3]