而且我们认为，要真正破解内卷困局，扩内需政策的协同发力不可或缺。 事实上，内卷现象的根源之一在 于有效需求不足。当前经济运行还面临内外部共同压力：关税局势和外需回暖的不确定性持续存在、以旧 换新政策可能透支部分后续消费需求、地产销售投资端的调整还在持续。如果同时进行单纯的去产能，反 而可能带来工业生产放缓、就业压力加剧等影响。由此，稳经济、化解内卷还需要内需政策的接续支持。 在具体操作上，仍需继续关注经济基本面走势，即若出口、制造业 PMI 、地产等数据明显走弱，货币财 政政策加码概率可能大大增加。 风险提示： 房地产走势不确定性仍存；政策力度不及预期。 报告导读： 今年以来，"以旧换新"补贴政策持续支撑耐用消费品价格，带动核心 CPI 同 比小幅修复，而其中服务价格方面仍有待提振，指向了居民部门资产负债表的修复进展有 限，需要后续稳增长政策接续。 6 月 CPI 同比转正。 食品价格拖累减弱；国际油价上涨输入带动能源价格；核心 CPI 环比持平，核心消 费品 CPI 环比表现显著好于 2023 、 2024 年，" 618 "提前促销影响过去后，"以旧换新"政策支持的相 关品类价格仍相对偏强，而服务相关价格 ...

Group 1 - The real estate market remains weak, impacting construction demand, but there is an expectation of supply tightening in cyclical industries due to government policies against low-price competition, leading to a marginal improvement in prices for steel and coal [1][3] - Summer consumption has shown signs of improvement, with notable increases in tourism, movie attendance, and passenger transport, while pork prices have risen significantly, indicating a potential recovery in consumer spending [1][2] - Manufacturing activity is showing mixed results, with a decline in automotive production due to rising dealer inventory pressures, while chemical and asphalt production remains resilient, reflecting some stability in construction demand [1][3] Group 2 - Real estate sales continue to decline, with a 24.6% year-on-year drop in transaction volume across 30 major cities, while second-hand housing transactions in key cities also fell by 11.8% [2] - The automotive market is experiencing a slight increase in sales, driven by summer self-driving demand, although dealer inventory pressures are rising, as indicated by a 3.9% increase in the inventory warning index [2] - Service consumption is on the rise, with a 2.7% increase in tourism prices in Hainan and a 3.1% year-on-year increase in movie box office revenue, suggesting a potential rebound in consumer sentiment [2] Group 3 - The cyclical industry is experiencing heightened expectations for supply tightening, with a slight increase in rebar demand and a rebound in steel prices, while cement prices continue to decline [3] - Manufacturing activity is showing significant divergence, with automotive production rates declining, while chemical production rates are increasing, indicating varying levels of demand across sectors [3] - Resource prices are rising due to increased electricity consumption and tightening supply expectations, with coal prices continuing to rise amid changing monetary policy expectations [3] Group 4 - Passenger transport demand has increased, with metro ridership up by 1.1% week-on-week and domestic flight operations increasing by 6.1% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4] - However, export activities are facing challenges, with a decline in freight volumes and shipping prices, likely influenced by fluctuating international tariff policies [4] - Overall logistics performance shows a mixed picture, with a decrease in highway and rail freight volumes, while express delivery volumes remain strong year-on-year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is currently facing intense competition and significant profit pressure, with historical trends indicating that environmental policies have previously driven the exit of outdated capacity, and new national standards are expected to catalyze a new round of supply-side clearing in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The paper industry is experiencing an oversupply situation, with paper prices and profitability at low levels. The operating rates and inventory levels are relatively stable in the short term, but the oversupply has intensified since 2020, leading companies to adopt aggressive pricing strategies to gain market share [1][2] - Capacity growth in the industry has accelerated, exacerbating the oversupply situation. From 2010 to 2020, domestic capacity growth outpaced demand growth, with a notable increase in capacity since 2020 [1][2] Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Competition - Taking double glue paper as an example, from 2020 to 2025, the industry is expected to add a cumulative capacity of 6.41 million tons, with leading companies like Sun Paper (1 million tons) and Nine Dragons Paper (1.85 million tons) significantly increasing production. This trend is driven by the saturation of various paper segments, prompting leading companies to diversify their product offerings [2] - The new capacity is often accompanied by self-sufficient pulp lines, which allows new entrants to adopt low-price competition strategies, putting further pressure on paper prices. Since the second half of 2023, the profitability of paper machines has been operating below the breakeven line [2] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, the high prosperity of the paper industry from 2015 to 2018 was primarily driven by supply-side factors, particularly the implementation of environmental policies that restricted both existing and new capacity, leading to significant increases in paper prices and profitability [3] - Looking ahead, the current cycle has seen rapid expansion of capacity and companies, with record losses and low profits. The supply side faces challenges such as small-scale production lines and low entry barriers in certain paper types, making it difficult for leading companies to eliminate smaller competitors. Additionally, new national standards are expected to enhance energy consumption limits, potentially catalyzing a new round of supply-side clearing [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that foreign capital experienced accelerated outflows from Hong Kong stocks in April and May, but began to return in June, primarily flowing into the technology sector [1] - In Q2, Hong Kong stocks saw an overall outflow of approximately 150 billion HKD, with long-term stable foreign capital accounting for a significant portion of this outflow, totaling around 120 billion HKD, while short-term flexible foreign capital contributed to an outflow of about 30 billion HKD [1] - The article highlights that in Q2, foreign capital mainly flowed into software services and technology hardware sectors in Hong Kong, while it saw outflows from banks, retail, and pharmaceutical sectors [1] Group 2 - For A-shares, the data from the Northbound trading indicates an overall inflow of 58.5 billion CNY in Q2, with a net inflow of approximately 11.4 billion CNY after excluding Chinese custodial funds [1] - Long-term stable foreign capital in A-shares saw an inflow of 51 billion CNY, while short-term flexible foreign capital experienced an outflow of 39.5 billion CNY [1] - The article notes that foreign capital in A-shares primarily increased its allocation to dividend stocks, new energy, and non-bank sectors, while reducing allocations in home appliances, food and beverage, and machinery sectors [1]

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Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "430" and "531" policies will lead to a decrease in the profitability of new energy projects, resulting in a slowdown in new energy development after the initial rush in early 2025. The marginal impact on coal consumption is expected to diminish, with a potential turning point for coal consumption around 2027 [1]. Group 1: New Energy Development - Over the past decade, new energy has experienced rapid growth, significantly impacting thermal power demand. By the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of wind and solar energy in China is projected to reach 1.4 billion kilowatts, achieving the 2030 target six years ahead of schedule. The share of thermal power generation capacity has decreased from 66.75% in 2015 to 43.88% in 2024 [2]. - The rapid growth of new energy has led to a notable decline in the growth rate of thermal power generation, which is now lagging behind the overall electricity consumption growth rate [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "430" policy highlights the increasing pressure on distributed solar energy consumption, with some provinces halting new registrations for distributed solar projects. The profitability of these projects has become highly uncertain, ending the previous model of easy profits from simply installing power stations [3]. - The "531" policy, effective from January 2025, will push new energy into market trading, with settlement prices expected to decrease significantly compared to coal-based benchmark prices. This is likely to result in a substantial decline in new installations of distributed solar energy starting in the second half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The new energy sector is entering a new phase, with the peak of new energy installations likely occurring in 2024. The pressure on thermal power is expected to be greatest in 2025, but with steady growth in electricity demand driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and AI, the pressure on coal consumption is anticipated to ease in 2026, with a potential upward turning point in 2027 [4].

报告导读： 2021-24 年是中国水泥企业出海的提速期，而 2025 年后或迎来水泥企业出 海的分化期，企业机制决定了扩产速度，但内功决定海外盈利兑现的质量。 全球视角：需求定增量，格局定价格。 全球水泥发展历程来看，区域水泥的需求从长期看是由城镇化进程 与人口增速决定，但我们观察到 90 年代以来全球需求增长斜率最高区域（包括中国大陆、中亚、东南 亚、北非等），往往对应的是分散化的产业格局和较为激烈的价格竞争。而欧洲作为全球老牌水泥巨头的 发源地在 70 年代率先完成了城镇化，实现了先竞争、先集中，高度集中的产业格局带动欧洲水泥价格在 水泥需求见顶后，反而迎来了价格的新高。 报告名称：海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫——海外水泥专题 报告日期：2025.07.08 报告作者： 鲍雁辛 （分析师），登记编号： S 0880513070005 杨冬庭 ( 分析师 ) ，登记编号：S 0880522080004 经营视角：机制定速度，内功定质量。 2021-2024 年间国内水泥企业出海进程加速。水泥企业海外投资 产能从 4503 万吨提升至 8759 万吨，其中民营、外资股东背景的企业及市场化机制较优的国企在扩产期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the steady progress in overseas solid-state battery development, with continuous breakthroughs in product performance and a mass production timeline set for 2026-2030 [1][2][3] Group 2 - Overseas solid-state battery companies are focusing on sulfide technology routes, with energy densities ranging from 301-560 Wh/kg for various companies including Solid Power, QuantumScape, Factorial Energy, and Samsung SDI [1][2] - Solid Power's revenue for 2024 is projected at $20.14 million, a 16% year-on-year increase, with R&D expenses of $73.34 million, up 34% year-on-year; QuantumScape has not yet generated revenue but has R&D expenses of $380 million, a 10% increase year-on-year [2] - Solid Power's sulfide solid-state battery has an energy density of 390 Wh/kg, while QuantumScape's QSE-5 cell reaches 301 Wh/kg with a 10C discharge capability; Factorial Energy's Solstice battery offers a range of 1000 km, and Samsung SDI's silver-carbon negative battery achieves 900 Wh/L with a 9-minute fast charge [2] - Collaboration between battery manufacturers and automakers is deepening, with projects covering technology licensing, production line co-construction, and road testing; Solid Power's batteries are being tested in BMW's i7, while QuantumScape has signed a mass production agreement with Volkswagen's PowerCo [3]

Core Viewpoint - The application scenarios of stablecoins are continuously expanding, with the future scale expected to reach $3.5 trillion [1][2]. Group 1: Application Scenarios - Stablecoins have evolved from their inception in 2014 with USDT, initially focusing on cryptocurrency trading, to various applications including cross-border trade settlements and decentralized finance (DeFi) [1]. - Four main scenarios for stablecoin application have emerged: 1) Cryptocurrency trading, supporting transactions of BTC, ETH, RWA assets, and NFTs [1]. 2) Cross-border payments, enabling point-to-point instant transfers without intermediaries [1]. 3) Consumer payments, integrating stablecoins into the internet finance system for lower-cost and faster transactions [1]. 4) Traditional capital markets, allowing tokenization of assets like foreign exchange and securities, enhancing asset usability and transferability [1]. Group 2: Future Scale Estimation - The future scale of stablecoins is projected to reach $3.5 trillion through four key scenarios: 1) In the cryptocurrency sector, with a neutral market growth of 10%, stablecoins are expected to reach $363.3 billion by 2030, maintaining an 8.22% market share [2]. 2) In cross-border payments, assuming a 20% market share, the demand is estimated at $2.9 trillion [2]. 3) For daily consumer payments, a 10% market share translates to $121.6 billion [2]. 4) In traditional capital markets, under a neutral scenario, stablecoin demand is projected to be $133.3 billion [2].

每周一景： 云南兰坪澜沧江山谷河流村庄风光 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【煤炭】新能源步入下半场，电煤压力最大已过 投资建议： 近年来伴随着新能源装机高增，新能源发电量高速增长，对煤电的挤压效益日益明显，市场担忧在新能源的挤压下未来煤电将进入负增长阶段， 从而导致电煤消费进入下行通道。而我们认为新能源高速发展时代已过，2025年起随着新能源"430、531"新政出台，并且考虑到当前电网巨大的消纳压力 和新能源项目盈利性下降明显，我们判断未来新能源发电将减速，对煤电的边际冲击减弱，我们测算电煤的需求拐点或将在2027年。 新能源步入下半场，电煤已过压力最大时刻，2026年压力缓解，2027年有望迎来向上拐点。 我们认为新能源新政带来的未来现金流确定性下降，将有望促 使新能源装机开始下降，2024年将可能成为历史新能源装机的大顶，也意味着对于火电替代压力最大的在2025年。而展望整体全社会用电量的需求端，随着 近年来用电结构变化，以新能源汽车、AI相关、储能为主导驱动力的第三产业及城乡居民用电成为拉动边际用电量提升的主要方向，有望推动全社会用电量稳 步增长。我们判断随着需求端的稳步增长，与2025年6月开始新能源 ...