4月2日，唐纳德·特朗普在白宫玫瑰园宣布关税政策时手持对等关税公告牌。图片来源：Kent Nishimura— Bloomberg/Getty Images 穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示，虽然联邦政府有望从唐纳德·特朗普的关税措施中获得可观的财 政收入，但这并不是一项可靠的资金来源，尤其是在经济衰退时期。 经济衰退或许会提前发生。本月初，赞迪警告称经济已濒临衰退边缘。 耶鲁大学预算实验室（Yale's Budget Lab）的数据显示，当前平均实际关税税率已达20.2%，创1911年以 来的新高。基于现有关税收入测算，关税年创收规模应约达3,000亿美元。 尽管这远不足以填补预计今年将扩至近2万亿美元的联邦预算赤字，但仍然是一个重要的收入来源。然 而，为什么不能将关税收入作为长期收入来源？ 在上周三专注削减国债的无党派组织"协和联盟"（Concord Coalition）旗下的最新一期《面向未来》 （Facing the Future）播客节目中，赞迪强调关税政策经行政令实施，而且可能被随时撤销。 此外，所谓"对等关税"正面临司法质疑，质疑者主张其不在《国际紧急经济权力法》（International ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rise of Yushu Technology and its founder Wang Xingxing as a significant player in the robotics industry, particularly in humanoid robots, amidst the ongoing digital and intelligent transformation of society [2][3][10]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yushu Technology, initially a low-profile startup in Hangzhou, gained recognition after showcasing its "robotic cow" performance during the 2021 Spring Festival Gala, leading to its expansion into humanoid robotics [10]. - The company has been recognized as a "disruptor" in the global robotics industry, being included in TIME magazine's list of the 100 most influential companies in 2025 [10]. - Yushu Technology has recently completed a round of financing, achieving a valuation exceeding 10 billion yuan, with investments from major players like China Mobile, Tencent, Alibaba, and Geely Capital [11]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The Chinese robotics industry is projected to grow significantly, with over 450,000 intelligent robot companies and registered capital exceeding 6.44 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [11]. - There are contrasting views on the industry's future: pessimists warn of a potential bubble due to high valuations and uncertain business models, while optimists see a substantial demand gap in both China and the U.S. over the next decade [12][11]. - Wang Xingxing believes that the current growth in the robotics sector is robust, estimating that the overall performance of the intelligent machinery industry could nearly double compared to the previous year [15]. Group 3: Technological Challenges and Future Outlook - Wang Xingxing acknowledges the challenges in the commercialization of humanoid robots, suggesting that their integration into homes and factories is not feasible in the short term [11]. - He emphasizes the importance of continuous technological advancements for the commercial viability of robotics, stating that stagnation could lead to rapid decline in the industry [31][32]. - The company is exploring the potential of humanoid robots through competitions like robot fighting, which serve to showcase technological progress and expand commercial opportunities [30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, suggesting that it has been in a "rolling recession" for the past three years, but is now entering a new bull market phase, as indicated by recent market performance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley claims that the significant market sell-off in April marked the end of the bear market, and the current market is experiencing a healthy gradual rise rather than a sharp increase [1]. - The S&P 500 index has shown a V-shaped recovery, rising 30% since its April low, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 9% [1]. - Wilson predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 7,200 points by mid-2026, driven by strong earnings, AI applications, a weaker dollar, tax cuts, pent-up demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Wilson advises investors to buy on dips, emphasizing that the current bull market is still in its early stages [3]. - Despite the cautious approach of institutional investors during market downturns, retail investors continue to buy stocks, contributing to the market's rapid recovery [5]. - The article highlights the risks associated with the buy-the-dip strategy, as investors may end up buying at unfavorable prices if the market continues to decline [7].

Core Viewpoint - AI is not just a new tool in the modern workplace; it is quietly reshaping corporate organizational structures [3]. Group 1: Organizational Changes - Traditional corporate hierarchies are being transformed into flatter structures due to the integration of AI, leading to the disappearance of junior positions and the reduction of management layers [4][5]. - Companies like Moderna have merged departments, such as HR and technology, under a single leadership role to streamline operations and leverage AI [6]. - Consulting firms like McKinsey are deploying thousands of AI agents to assist in various tasks, indicating a shift towards AI-driven execution within organizations [6][8]. Group 2: Impact on Job Roles - The nature of job roles is changing as AI takes over routine tasks, leading to a more diverse set of responsibilities for employees [7]. - Traditional team structures are dissolving, with roles becoming more fluid as AI systems handle many execution tasks [8][9]. - The emergence of AI-driven teams means that human employees will need to adapt to new roles that involve overseeing AI agents rather than performing traditional tasks [9]. Group 3: Middle Management Dynamics - Middle management is facing significant scrutiny, with companies like Palantir announcing layoffs as part of a move towards more efficient structures [10]. - Experts suggest that while middle management roles may evolve, they will not completely disappear; instead, their responsibilities will be redefined in the context of AI integration [11]. - The complexity of management roles is expected to increase as organizations require leaders who can navigate both human and AI team dynamics [12][13]. Group 4: New Executive Roles - The rise of AI is creating new executive positions, such as Chief AI Officers, with a notable increase in companies appointing such roles [13][14]. - The responsibilities of top management are expanding to include strategic considerations regarding AI's impact on competitive dynamics and organizational advantages [15]. - Despite the potential for AI to disrupt various levels of management, the highest management tier may retain its power due to the strategic nature of their roles [15].

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of a new generation of young innovators in China, who are adept at navigating the complexities of the digital and intelligent eras, leveraging technology to bridge cultural and industrial gaps [2][4][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The current era is characterized by a blend of "digital natives" and "intelligent natives," where the digital transformation has been largely completed, and artificial intelligence is now being utilized to enhance human systems [2][3]. - Young entrepreneurs are increasingly focusing on sectors such as artificial intelligence, health tech, green technology, new consumption, and smart manufacturing, indicating a shift towards innovation in these areas [7][8]. Group 2: Notable Young Innovators - The article highlights several young leaders under 40 who are making significant contributions in their respective fields, such as Liang Wenfeng of DeepSeek, who is advancing general artificial intelligence [31], and Wang Ning of Pop Mart, who is expanding the company's international presence [39]. - Other notable figures include Liu Jingkang of Insta360, who has established a strong global market presence in panoramic cameras [44], and Zhang Zhengping of Seris Group, who is leading innovations in the electric vehicle sector [50]. Group 3: Innovation and Impact - The article emphasizes that true innovation often occurs at the boundaries of established paradigms, where young innovators are finding opportunities amidst uncertainty and change [4][6]. - Companies like Airwallex are revolutionizing financial infrastructure for businesses, while others like Yujia Innovation are pushing the boundaries of intelligent driving solutions [74][96].

图片来源：Nikolas Kokovlis/NurPhoto via Getty Images OpenAI发布了最新大语言模型GPT-5。OpenAI在上周四表示，新款生成式AI模型将免费提供给消费者 使用，并为广受欢迎的聊天机器人ChatGPT的最新版本提供支持，它代表了"我们迄今为止最智能、最 快速、最实用的模型，其内置的思考能力让每个人都轻松拥有专家级智能"。 如果你想知道OpenAI为何对该模型如此自信，以及与该公司之前的GPT模型（或与Claude、Gemini或 Llama等竞争对手的AI模型）相比，GPT-5有哪些更出众的特性或不同之处，下文简要介绍了GPT-5中一 些最重要的新特性和功能： 更容易使用 OpenAI 产品的近期版本曾强迫用户为不同任务选择要使用的模型类型——是选择 OpenAI的o系列"推 理"模型用于复杂研究，还是选择标准GPT模型快速得出结果。GPT-5 使用了一个"实时路由器"来自动 化这一过程，为合适的任务挑选合适的工具，因此用户无需再手动选择。 专属个性 ChatGPT将允许用户在与它互动时从四种预设的"个性"中选择，分别是："愤世嫉俗者"、"机器人"、"倾 听者" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of Xiang Yiqiu, founder of Hexuan Capital, highlighting his transition from investment banking to establishing a venture capital firm focused on long-term investments in top-tier technology companies in China and Silicon Valley. Group 1: Founding of Hexuan Capital - In 2017, Xiang Yiqiu founded Hexuan Capital in Hong Kong, aiming to build warm and long-lasting relationships with invested companies, investors, and partners [2] - The investment strategy was clearly defined from the start, focusing on top Chinese technology companies and avoiding short-term speculative trading [5] Group 2: Initial Success and Challenges - Within a year and a half, Hexuan Capital raised over $500 million and quickly deployed the capital, exceeding initial expectations [5] - In 2019, regulatory changes and external pressures led to significant challenges for the firm, prompting a strategic pivot to invest in hard technology companies and expand into Silicon Valley [6][7] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - The strategic shift was facilitated by Xiang's extensive network from his time at JPMorgan, allowing Hexuan Capital to quickly establish connections in Silicon Valley [7] - The firm faced tough decisions regarding existing investments in Chinese concept stocks, which were experiencing significant valuation declines [9] Group 4: Investment Philosophy and Lessons Learned - Xiang emphasizes the importance of understanding the true value of companies and maintaining close communication with limited partners (LPs) during turbulent times [9][10] - A significant lesson learned from a failed investment in a computer vision company highlighted the importance of cash flow, customer retention, and avoiding companies with unstable business models [12][13] Group 5: Current Investment Strategy - Hexuan Capital's investment philosophy is based on the "first principles" approach, focusing on deep understanding of industries, products, and customer needs [16] - The firm has adopted a clear AI investment strategy, targeting top-tier AI companies and emphasizing a global and local investment approach [19][20] Group 6: Future Outlook - Xiang believes that AI will be the core investment theme for the next 10-20 years, with Hexuan Capital focusing on capturing opportunities in this space [19][22] - The firm has successfully navigated market volatility by prioritizing investments in high-quality companies, resulting in a total asset management scale exceeding $1.5 billion by 2024 [22]

谷歌（Google）前首席商务官莫·乔达特（Mo Gawdat）表示，"人工智能将创造就业岗位"的说法纯属"彻头彻尾的废 话"。他警告称，人工智能将摧毁就业岗位，甚至"能力欠佳的首席执行官"和"心怀不轨"的政府领导人也难以幸免。图 片来源：Kate Green / Stringer / Getty Images 科技巨头们一直坚称，人工智能将引领人类进入"黄金时代"，届时所有疾病都能被治愈，人们尽享富足 生活，劳动者将拥有"超级人类"能力。然而，前谷歌高管却对"人工智能不会成为就业杀手，反而会为 人类创造新工作"的观点展开了猛烈抨击。 尽管"公司完全由机器人运营、没有人类参与"的场景极具反乌托邦色彩，但这位前谷歌高管并不畏惧未 来。这位58岁的高管认为，人工智能并非导致失业的罪魁祸首——实际上，是那些贪婪的首席执行官们 为追求经济利益而任由技术接管工作，这才是问题的根源所在。 "在我看来，这种说法简直就是彻头彻尾的废话，"谷歌X前首席商务官莫·乔达特最近在《首席执行官日 记》播客中表示，"无论身处何种岗位，顶尖人才将会留下来。真正了解架构、掌握技术的顶尖软件开 发者会留下来——至少在一段时期内是这样。" 乔达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "coffee clock-in" reflects a significant disconnect between traditional corporate expectations and the current realities of white-collar workers, indicating a need for companies to rethink the value of mandatory office attendance rather than enforcing strict return-to-office policies [5] Group 1: Severity of the Issue - A substantial portion of the workforce identifies as "coffee clock-in" individuals, with 44% of hybrid office employees in the U.S. admitting to this behavior [2] - Over 58% of surveyed U.S. workers reported having engaged in "coffee clock-in" at least once, indicating the widespread nature of this issue across various industries [2] - Three-quarters of companies express concern over the "coffee clock-in" phenomenon, highlighting its prevalence across different sectors and company sizes [2] Group 2: Company Responses - Companies are implementing stricter tracking measures, with approximately 60% of firms using employee tracking technology in 2022, a significant increase from the pandemic's onset [4] - Some companies, like Amazon, have established minimum in-office hours and are directly communicating with employees who do not meet these standards [3][4] - A few organizations are shifting their evaluation mechanisms to prioritize results over hours worked, aiming to enhance work quality rather than merely enforcing attendance [4] Group 3: Underlying Issues - The "coffee clock-in" behavior signifies a silent resistance against mandatory office attendance, particularly among younger employees who seek flexibility in their work arrangements [3][5] - Even among management, 47% admit to having engaged in "coffee clock-in," suggesting that this behavior is common across all levels of the organization [3] - Companies are encouraged to listen to employee feedback and understand the motivations behind this behavior, as it may indicate deeper issues related to employee engagement and workplace culture [5]

Group 1 - Sam Altman, at 19, made a significant decision to leave Stanford University and founded the location service company Loopt, which was eventually sold for $43.4 million in 2012 [2] - Altman later became the president of Y Combinator in 2014 and co-founded OpenAI with Elon Musk in 2015, focusing on developing beneficial general artificial intelligence [2] - Altman believes that society often misjudges risk, suggesting that being overly cautious can lead to regret in the long run [3] Group 2 - In China, a new generation of entrepreneurs is emerging, aiming to prove that the true intelligent revolution is not just happening on screens but also in manufacturing and healthcare [4] - The "Fortune" magazine has been launching the "40 Under 40" list since 2011 to identify vibrant new leadership in China, highlighting a group of "Generation Z" entrepreneurs who are starting companies at a faster pace than previous generations [5] - The average age of the individuals on this year's list is approximately 36 years [6] Group 3 - The 2025 "Fortune" China 40 Under 40 list will feature founders of about 11 unicorn companies, accounting for over a quarter of this year's honorees [11] - Additionally, seven young leaders from listed companies are included in the list [15] - Beyond unicorns, six honorees have founded companies valued at over 3 billion RMB [19]