以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 最近这两周，国内的股票市场非常热闹，今天大A非常强势， 沪指、创业板指双双创年内新高。 沪深两市全天成交额1.7万亿，较上个交易日放量1289亿，4000多个个股上涨，市场一片火热。 但是当大家的注意力都在大A这里的时候，我却认为大伙应该更关注另外一个市场—— 港股 。 恒生指数今天最高点已经站上了25000点，同样创下了年内的新高，点位超过了3月deepseek横空 出世带动下的高点。 恒生指数年内走势 既然港股和大A一样，都已经超越前高，那为什么我认为大家要优先关注港股而不是大A？ 原因很简单。 因为港股内部现在只是大盘指数登上了新高， 盘内依然有部分板块的指数没有跟上，后续还有很 强的上涨动能。 这其中，最值得我们关注的就是—— 恒生科技指数 此刻，恒生科技的入场信号，其实很强烈。 首先是 技术面 。 在恒生指数已经突破3月高点的情况下，恒生科技指数最近两周的上涨幅度明显滞后于大盘。 3月份，恒科的最高点达到6195点，而截止到21号收盘，恒科也才涨到5585点。 显然 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU is perceived as unfavorable for Europe, as it involves a 15% tariff on EU products while requiring significant investments and purchases from the U.S. [2][10][15] Group 1: Agreement Details - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU products, aligning with the rate set for Japan [2] - The EU is expected to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [2][14] - The agreement is seen as a trade-off where Europe accepts higher tariffs in exchange for investment commitments [3][4] Group 2: European Response - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged that while the 15% tariff is not ideal, it is the best outcome they could achieve [5] - There are significant dissenting voices within Europe, with leaders like the French Prime Minister criticizing the agreement as detrimental to European interests [20][21] - The agreement is compared to historical unequal treaties, suggesting that Europe is sacrificing its own benefits [22][23] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The agreement reinforces Europe's energy dependence on the U.S., especially in light of recent geopolitical tensions [33][34] - The U.S. may leverage this energy dependency to impose higher prices on European imports [34][37] - The U.S. is expected to pursue similar agreements with other nations, particularly Japan, using its strategic advantages [41][43]

Core Viewpoint - The newly introduced childcare subsidy aims to stimulate birth rates and consumer spending, but its actual impact may be limited due to the relatively small amount of financial support compared to the overall costs of raising a child [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Childcare Subsidy Details - Starting from January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under three years old, amounting to a total of 10,800 yuan for three years [1]. - Approximately 28.12 million births from 2022 to 2024 will receive varying levels of subsidies, totaling around 854 billion yuan, while the expected 9.6 million births in 2025 will incur an additional 347 billion yuan in subsidies, leading to a total subsidy scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan for this year [1]. Financial Implications - If the birth rate remains stable over the next decade, the total subsidy expenditure could reach approximately 3.47 trillion yuan [2]. - The subsidy amount is relatively small compared to the non-tax revenue increase of 369.8 billion yuan from state-owned financial institutions in a single month, suggesting that funding the subsidy is feasible without significant fiscal strain [2]. Effectiveness of the Subsidy - The subsidy is unlikely to significantly stimulate birth rates, as the financial support does not outweigh the substantial costs associated with raising a child [3]. - Historical data from countries with similar subsidy programs indicate that financial incentives alone have not effectively reversed declining birth rates [3]. Consumer Spending Impact - The subsidy may not substantially boost consumer spending, as the funds are likely to be allocated to essential expenses for young children, such as formula and diapers, rather than discretionary spending [4]. - The economic conditions in lower-tier cities may further limit the impact of the subsidy on consumer behavior, as families face high living costs relative to their incomes [4][5]. Symbolic Significance - The nationwide implementation of the subsidy represents a shift towards universal welfare, as it includes all children rather than just those from families with multiple children [5]. - The introduction of a long-term subsidy program suggests a potential for future increases in the subsidy amount, indicating a change in government policy towards more robust financial support for families [5][6]. Comparison with Other Countries - Compared to other countries, such as Japan and Singapore, China's subsidy is relatively modest, indicating room for enhancement in future policies [6]. Broader Fiscal Strategies - The government may explore additional fiscal measures, such as direct cash transfers to social security accounts, to stimulate the economy and address demographic challenges [7][8]. - The potential for increased asset prices due to fiscal stimulus suggests that sectors related to financial support and subsidies may experience growth opportunities in the future [8].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, surpassing the total market capitalization of several countries [1][2] Group 1: Market Context - The current economic environment is characterized as a global downturn, making it crucial to focus on risk aversion rather than chasing bubble assets [2] - Nvidia's stock is viewed as a bubble asset rather than a quality safe-haven asset, which raises concerns about its valuation [1][2] Group 2: Pricing Logic - The concept of pricing logic is emphasized, highlighting that many investors fail to understand the underlying monetary value behind asset prices [2][3] - The transition to a fiat currency system since the 1970s has led to the devaluation of the dollar, impacting the perceived value of assets like Nvidia [3][4] Group 3: Inflation and Asset Valuation - Inflation is identified as a result of the declining real value of currency, which can lead to rising prices of assets without a corresponding increase in their actual value [4][5] - The dollar has depreciated significantly against gold, with a 94.6% decline since the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971, indicating that Nvidia's market cap may not reflect its true value [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The expansion of the U.S. debt and the potential for further dollar devaluation could lead to inflated asset prices, including Nvidia's stock, which may not be sustainable [6][7] - A multi-currency system is emerging, which could challenge the dollar's dominance and lead to a revaluation of dollar-denominated assets [6][7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on defensive assets that provide stable cash flow and interest income, rather than chasing high-flying stocks like Nvidia [7] - Long-term investment strategies should prioritize low P/E ratios and undervalued companies with strong cash flow, while maintaining risk management practices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential sale of ports by Li Ka-shing to a consortium led by BlackRock and COSCO, highlighting the geopolitical implications of this transaction, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [3][4][10]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group announced the sale of 43 ports across 23 countries for $22.8 billion (approximately 165.7 billion RMB) to a consortium including BlackRock and Mediterranean Shipping Company [4]. - The ports involved include strategically significant locations, such as those at both ends of the Panama Canal, which are crucial for East Asia's exports to the Americas [6][7]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The sale of these ports to BlackRock, a firm closely tied to U.S. interests, raises concerns about the potential for the U.S. to gain control over strategic resources that could impact East Asia's foreign trade [10][12]. - The article suggests that this transaction is not merely a commercial decision but also reflects a broader geopolitical alignment, as Li Ka-shing has a history of actions that align with Western interests [11][13]. Group 3: COSCO's Position - BlackRock has expressed willingness to accept COSCO into the acquisition consortium, indicating a potential collaboration [2][14]. - COSCO has significant experience in port management and development, demonstrated by its successful turnaround of Greece's Piraeus Port and its involvement in the construction of Peru's Chancay Port [16][17]. - COSCO may opt to pursue independent acquisition or partner with domestic firms like China Merchants or CITIC, which possess both financial and operational capabilities [19][20]. Group 4: Strategic Choices for COSCO - COSCO has several strategic options: to acquire the ports independently, collaborate with domestic partners, or remain passive, thereby preventing BlackRock from gaining control [21]. - The article emphasizes that regardless of the outcome, the influence over the transaction has shifted from BlackRock to COSCO, reflecting a change in power dynamics [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of wealth transfer during economic crises, emphasizing that each crisis presents opportunities for ordinary individuals to advance their wealth through strategic investments in real estate, internet industries, and potentially in capital markets in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Wealth Transfers - The first major wealth transfer occurred in the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union, driven by industrialization and urbanization, which led to significant shifts in land ownership and wealth concentration in real estate [1][2]. - The second wealth transfer happened after the 2008 global financial crisis, primarily benefiting those involved in the internet industry, as capital shifted from real estate to online platforms, allowing tech giants to monetize user data [2][3]. Group 2: Future Wealth Transfer - A potential third wealth transfer is anticipated in the next 5-10 years, influenced by the current economic downturn and the movement of funds from bank deposits to other sectors [3][4]. - The focus of this future transfer will likely be on the capital market, as the government aims to stimulate consumption and investment, redirecting funds to areas that require growth, particularly the financial market [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Development Stages - The article outlines two critical stages for a country to become a major power: first, becoming an industrial power to ensure economic security, and second, evolving into a financial power to protect national wealth and support enterprise development [6][7]. - The transition to a financial power is essential for sustaining economic growth and preventing wealth loss, as illustrated by historical examples like the Soviet Union [8][9]. Group 4: Capital Market Potential - The article posits that the future of wealth distribution may shift from real estate to the capital market, with the potential for significant inflows of capital if the market can demonstrate strong returns [15][16]. - The anticipated growth in technology sectors and the weakening of U.S. monetary dominance could enhance the prospects for the capital market, making it a viable alternative for wealth accumulation [16][17]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - While the capital market may present opportunities, the article advises caution in stock trading due to the current global economic uncertainty and the risks associated with individual trading decisions [17][20]. - A balanced approach to investment is recommended, prioritizing stable returns over speculative stock trading until the market shows clearer signs of recovery [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent meeting between the former president and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the former president's unexpected mild approach towards Powell and the implications for interest rate decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The former president's visit to the Federal Reserve was characterized by a surprisingly conciliatory tone, indicating a desire for interest rate cuts without aggressive demands [1]. - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the near future is considered low, with a probability of less than 50% for a rate cut in September [1]. - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower rates is attributed to concerns over a potential global economic recession rather than fears of inflation [2]. Group 2: Economic Strategies - The article contrasts the aggressive monetary policies advocated by the former president with the conservative approach of Powell, emphasizing the former's focus on debt expansion and tax cuts to stimulate the economy [2][3]. - The former president's tax cuts are viewed as primarily benefiting the wealthy, with the potential for increased economic inequality [3]. - The push for lower interest rates is framed as a strategy to create larger debt bubbles, masking existing financial issues [4]. Group 3: Market Risks - The current state of U.S. dollar assets, including stocks and bonds, is described as precarious, with significant risks from capital outflows and currency depreciation [5][6]. - Recent trends show institutional investors selling off stocks, with a notable $8.5 billion sold in the past month, raising concerns about market stability [5][6]. - The article warns that a potential interest rate cut could exacerbate these issues, leading to a repeat of past economic crises characterized by high inflation and recession [7][8]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that investors should consider withdrawing from U.S. dollar assets and reallocating funds to safer investments and non-dollar assets, particularly in light of the current market conditions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, as it shows potential for significant upward movement despite the recent performance of the A-share market [3][5][39]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has been performing strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index both reaching new highs for the year [1][2]. - The Hang Seng Index has also reached a new high, surpassing 25,000 points, indicating a strong market performance [3][5]. Group 2: Hang Seng Technology Index - The Hang Seng Technology Index has lagged behind the overall market, with its recent performance not fully reflecting the gains of the broader market [8][10]. - As of March, the Hang Seng Technology Index peaked at 6,195 points but only reached 5,585 points by the 21st, indicating a significant gap that is expected to be filled by large capital inflows [9][10]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology Index has experienced a typical box consolidation pattern between 5,100 and 5,500 points, which was broken last week, suggesting a potential end to the consolidation phase [14][16]. - The article argues that the likelihood of a false breakout is low, and a significant upward movement is anticipated in the long term [18][19]. Group 4: Policy Environment - Recent regulatory actions against major food delivery companies (JD, Meituan, Alibaba) are seen as a positive development for the Hang Seng Technology Index, as these companies are key components of the index [21][24]. - The cessation of the "delivery war" is expected to alleviate market concerns regarding the profitability of these companies, potentially boosting their stock prices [25][29]. Group 5: Capital Flow - The liquidity of the Hong Kong dollar remains strong, with the currency trading near the lower limit of its peg, which has contributed to a robust stock market [31][33]. - The cautious approach of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in managing liquidity is viewed as a strategy to maintain market strength amid global economic challenges [35][38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite an increase in the money supply (M2) and a slight recovery in CPI, there is no corresponding rise in commodity and asset prices, leading to questions about where the excess money is going [1][2] - M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while CPI rose to 0.1% and PPI fell to -3.6%, indicating a disconnect between money supply and price levels [1][2] - The majority of the new money supply is not reaching households, as only 1.17 trillion yuan in new loans were taken by residents, representing about 7% of the M2 increase [2] Group 2 - Approximately 30% of the new money is directed to the government through bond financing, with some funds used for debt refinancing and infrastructure investments [2] - About 60% of the new money flows to enterprises, which primarily use it to expand production [2][3] - The current phase of production expansion is leading to overcapacity, causing price reductions and hindering price increases in both consumer goods and assets [3] Group 3 - The influx of new money is primarily directed towards production, resulting in supply exceeding demand, which contributes to deflationary pressures [3][4] - Exporting companies are retaining foreign currency earnings overseas instead of converting them to RMB, leading to a significant increase in foreign currency deposits in domestic banks [4] - The trade surplus reached 586.7 billion USD in the first half of the year, while foreign currency deposits increased by 146.3 billion USD, indicating that a substantial amount of foreign currency is not returning to the domestic economy [4] Group 4 - The challenge is to encourage the repatriation of these foreign funds, with past methods like mandatory currency conversion being less viable due to the large trade volume [4] - The strategy now focuses on enhancing the capital market, particularly the Hong Kong stock market, to attract these funds back [4][5] - The rise of digital assets and stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong aims to create a more attractive environment for both foreign and repatriated funds [4] Group 5 - Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expectations of RMB appreciation may drive funds away from USD assets towards Hong Kong stocks, particularly quality enterprises [5] - For investors, there is a long-term opportunity in Hong Kong stocks, and it is advised to align asset allocation with market trends rather than against them [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion, making it the first company to achieve this milestone, surpassing the total market capitalization of several countries [1][2] - The article argues that Nvidia's stock is a bubble asset rather than a quality safe-haven asset, especially in the current global economic downturn [2][4] Group 1: Market Context - The current economic environment is characterized as a downturn, where the focus should be on risk aversion rather than chasing bubble assets [2][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the pricing logic behind assets, which many investors overlook [2][3] Group 2: Currency and Inflation - Since the 1970s, the U.S. dollar has entered an era of fiat currency, leading to unlimited money printing and a decrease in the real value of money [3][4] - The article highlights that inflation is a result of the declining real value of currency, which affects the perceived value of dollar-denominated assets [4][5] Group 3: Valuation of Nvidia - Using a gold standard for valuation, the dollar has depreciated by 94.6% since 1971, indicating that Nvidia's $4 trillion market cap may not reflect its true value [5][6] - The article suggests that the current valuation of Nvidia is inflated due to the ongoing devaluation of the dollar and the expansion of the money supply [6][7] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious and consider defensive assets that provide stable cash flow and interest income, rather than chasing high-flying stocks [7] - The article encourages a long-term investment approach focusing on low P/E ratio companies with potential, rather than speculative investments in trending sectors [7]