Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to determine the sustainability of the bull market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately 6.8%, up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently about 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool the market [17][18]. - The third indicator is market trading volume, with a sustained volume above 2 trillion yuan typically supporting a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes exceed this threshold for five consecutive days [20][21]. - The fourth indicator is the scale of newly issued public funds. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the peak levels seen in previous bull markets, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. Group 2: New Investor Activity - The number of new brokerage accounts opened is a critical metric, as new retail investors often signal the later stages of a bull market. Recent data shows that 1.96 million new accounts were opened in July, which is significantly lower than previous peaks [33][34]. - The current level of new account openings suggests that the bull market is still in its early stages, with a lack of significant inflow from retail investors into the stock market [35][36]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Based on the four indicators discussed, the A-share market is still in the initial phase of the bull market, with no signs of entering the acceleration phase yet [37]. - Investors are advised to hold onto their stocks while being cautious about entering the market at current levels, especially given the potential for significant downturns [39][42].

Group 1 - The article predicts a significant rise in gold prices, with expectations for prices to reach between $3700 and $4000 per ounce [10][11][12] - Recent events, including the removal of a Federal Reserve board member and stable inflation data, have contributed to the acceleration of gold prices [12][18] - The current spot gold price has stabilized around $3470 per ounce, with expectations for it to surpass $3500 in the near future [19][23] Group 2 - The article discusses the relationship between rising gold prices and the A-share market, suggesting that both may rise in tandem until at least October [25][27] - The underlying logic of the current bull market in the A-share market is attributed to asset revaluation and efforts to escape deflation [30][32] - Institutional investors are driving the current market dynamics, with significant movements observed in popular sectors like computing power and semiconductors [36][38]

又有最新的劲爆消息出现，全球资产价格，即将迎来大洗牌。 昨晚，美国劳工统计局公布了最新的非农数据，数据完全跌破了市场的预期！ 数据显示： 美国8月季调候非农就业人口只有2.2万人，远远低于市场预期的7.5万人 。 与此同时，此前 6月和7月的新增非农新增就业人口，也是合计下修了2.1万人。 也就是说老美不仅本月的非农就业人口不及预期，甚至前面两个月的非农就业人口统计也有错误，被高估了2.1万人； 此外， 昨晚美国还公布了8月的失业率，失业率数据达到4.3%，失业数字创下2021年10月以来的新高。 非农就业数人口大大低于市场预期+失业率新高，说明现在美国的经济经济已经到了非常差的地步。 数据公布之后，市场已经可以基本确定： 美国经济开始步入衰退期。 市场对美元的预期变得越来越差，押注美联储本月降息的几率也变得越来越高。 所以，昨晚消息公布之后，美元指数迅速下跌，从98一下子滑落到了97.4。 而现货黄金则是一路上升，从3550美元 /盎司 一下子涨到了最高3600美元/盎司。 其实昨晚非农就业数据的低迷，早就有预兆。 非农数据公布的前一天，也就是本周四，美联储就已经率先公布 了 ADP就业数据 ，也就是市场上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global economy is heavily reliant on debt, with developed countries like the US, Europe, and Japan issuing bonds to sustain their economies [1]. - Recently, a significant crisis has emerged in the global debt market, with Japan's bond market experiencing historic yield increases, such as the 30-year bond yield reaching 3.222%, the highest since 1999 [1][2]. - The surge in bond yields indicates a lack of demand for these bonds, as evidenced by overseas investors selling 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) worth of Japanese bonds in a single month [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The rising yields in Japan are mirrored in other developed countries, with the UK seeing its 30-year bond yield rise to 5.64%, the highest since 1998 [2][3]. - German and French 30-year bond yields have also reached their highest levels since 2011, with monthly increases of approximately 15 and 27 basis points, respectively [3]. - The unusual behavior of US Treasury yields, which are rising despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a declining willingness among investors to hold US debt [3]. Group 3: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The bonds of developed countries are interconnected, meaning a crisis in one can lead to a cascading effect on others due to the investment strategies of cross-border financial institutions [3][5]. - The decline in demand for bonds from major economies indicates a potential systemic risk, as the collapse of one country's bond market could trigger failures in others [5][6]. - The article warns that the current situation could lead to a global economic crisis, potentially larger than the 2008 financial crisis or the Great Depression of 1929 [6]. Group 4: Implications for Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to remain cautious and consider diversifying their portfolios with recognized safe-haven assets, such as gold, in light of the rising global financial risks [6][7]. - The article stresses the importance of not being complacent with domestic market optimism and recognizing the broader risks present in the global economic landscape [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global debt market is experiencing significant turmoil, with rising yields indicating a loss of investor confidence in government bonds, particularly in developed countries like Japan, the UK, and Germany [1][2]. - Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a record high of 3.222% on August 30, while the 10-year yield surpassed 1.627%, marking peaks not seen since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2]. - Overseas investors sold 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) of Japanese bonds in a single month, reflecting a drastic reduction in demand [2]. Group 2: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The article highlights that bonds from developed countries are increasingly interconnected, meaning that issues in one country's bond market can trigger crises in others [3][5]. - The rise in yields across European bonds, such as the UK's 30-year bond reaching 5.64%, indicates a broader trend of declining demand for government debt [2][3]. - The decline in demand for U.S. bonds, despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a growing reluctance among investors to hold these assets [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Economy - The rising yields and lack of buyers for government bonds signal potential crises in the global financial markets, which could lead to a significant economic downturn, potentially worse than the 2008 crisis [6]. - The article warns that even countries with strong macroeconomic controls will be affected by these global trends, as their economies are tied to external demand [6][7]. - The current environment necessitates a careful approach to asset allocation, with a recommendation to invest in recognized safe-haven assets like gold [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent strong performance of the A-share market while also indicating a significant upward trend in gold prices, suggesting that investors should pay attention to gold as a potential investment opportunity alongside the A-share market [1][10]. Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,800 points, reaching a 10-year high, while the ChiNext Index saw a monthly increase of over 24% [1]. - The A-share market has been the best-performing market in recent years, attracting significant investor attention and capital [1][8]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have steadily increased from a low of $3,268 per ounce on July 31 to around $3,448 per ounce by August 30, marking an increase of nearly $200 per ounce within a month [3][5]. - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to accelerate in September, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [5][10]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 18 is expected to result in a rate cut, which is seen as a key driver for gold price support [5]. - Despite a decrease in unemployment claims in the U.S., which typically signals economic improvement and is negative for gold, the price of gold continued to rise, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold as a safe haven [5][6]. - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has been correlated with the rise in gold prices, as the dollar index fell from 100 to a low of 97 during the same period [6][7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article notes that Asian traders have been less active in the gold market due to the capital being drawn towards the A-share market, leading to a lack of upward movement in gold prices during Asian trading hours [8]. - In contrast, European and American traders have been more active in the gold market during their trading hours, contributing to the price increases observed in the evening [8][9]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios to include gold and related assets, as the A-share market may not sustain its rapid growth, creating opportunities in other asset classes like gold [10].

Group 1 - The article predicts a significant rise in gold prices, with expectations of reaching between $3700 and $4000 per ounce [10][11] - Recent events, including the removal of a Federal Reserve board member and stable inflation data, have contributed to the acceleration of gold prices [12][18] - Gold prices have already reached historical highs, with COMEX futures surpassing $3550 per ounce and spot gold nearing $3499 per ounce [6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential impact of rising gold prices on the A-share market, suggesting that both may rise in tandem until at least October [25][28] - The underlying logic for the current bull market in A-shares is attributed to asset revaluation and a desire to escape deflation [30][32] - Institutional investors are driving the current market trends, with significant movements observed in popular sectors like computing power and semiconductors [36][38]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to gauge the sustainability of the bull market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to monitor is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at 6.8%, slightly up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently about 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool the market [17][18]. Group 2: Trading Volume - A significant trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan is a crucial indicator for sustaining a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes surpassing this threshold for five consecutive days, suggesting potential for continued market momentum [20][21]. - The margin financing balance has reached 2.17 trillion yuan, nearing the peak of 2.27 trillion yuan from 2015, indicating a strong presence of leveraged funds in the market [23]. Group 3: Fundraising and New Accounts - The scale of newly issued public funds is another indicator. In the first three weeks of August, public funds raised an average of 11 billion yuan weekly, which is significantly lower than the peak seen in the previous year, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. - The number of new brokerage accounts opened is also a key metric. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, which is considerably lower than the peak of 6.8 million in October of the previous year and the average of 3.6 million during the 2015 bull market [33][34]. Group 4: Market Stage Assessment - Based on the four indicators discussed, the current bull market is still in its initial phase, with no signs of entering the acceleration or terminal phases yet. This suggests that investors can hold their positions but should be cautious about entering the market at current levels [37][39].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent strong performance of the A-share market while also indicating a significant upward trend in gold prices, suggesting that investors should pay attention to gold as a potential investment opportunity alongside the A-share market [1][10]. Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - In August, the Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3,800 points, reaching a 10-year high, while the ChiNext Index saw a monthly increase of over 24% [1]. - The A-share market has been the best-performing market in recent years, attracting significant investor attention and capital [1][8]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have steadily increased from a low of $3,268 per ounce on July 31 to around $3,448 per ounce by August 30, marking an increase of nearly $200 per ounce within a month [3][5]. - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to accelerate in September, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [5][10]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 18 is expected to result in a rate cut, which is seen as a key driver for gold price support [5]. - Despite a decrease in unemployment claims in the U.S., which typically signals economic improvement and is negative for gold, the price of gold continued to rise, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold as a safe haven [5][6]. - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has been correlated with the rise in gold prices, as the dollar index fell from 100 to a low of 97 during the same period [6][7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article notes that Asian traders have been less active in the gold market due to capital being drawn towards the A-share market, leading to a lack of upward movement in gold prices during Asian trading hours [8]. - In contrast, European and American traders have been more active in the gold market during their trading hours, contributing to price increases [8][9]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that investors should consider diversifying their portfolios to include gold and related assets, as the potential for significant price increases in gold is anticipated in the coming month [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising importance of stablecoins, particularly in the context of global currency competition, highlighting the U.S. legislative push to institutionalize stablecoins and their potential impact on the international monetary system [3][4][6][8]. Group 1: Stablecoin Significance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has publicly acknowledged stablecoins, indicating a shift from a gray area to a more legitimate status in the financial system [3][4]. - The U.S. is moving to legislate stablecoins to tie them to the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, aiming to maintain the dollar's dominance in global transactions [6][8]. - The increasing share of cryptocurrency in payment settlements is prompting the U.S. to secure its currency's position against emerging digital assets [7][9]. Group 2: Global Currency Competition - The competition between major powers for currency influence is intensifying, with the U.S. seeking to leverage stablecoins to reinforce its monetary hegemony [13][15]. - The article suggests that if the U.S. successfully binds stablecoins to the dollar, it could effectively create a new channel for dollar liquidity without direct responsibility from the Federal Reserve [12][10]. - China's potential response includes the issuance of stablecoins backed by offshore RMB, which could enhance the internationalization of the RMB [16][17]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The article notes that recent developments in stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong and the involvement of major companies like JD, Alibaba, and Tencent indicate a growing trend in virtual currency adoption [20]. - The shift towards stablecoins and digital assets is seen as a transformative force in the global monetary and payment structures, presenting new investment opportunities [20][24]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on assets related to stablecoins, particularly those linked to offshore RMB, as these could yield significant returns in the evolving financial landscape [24][25].