以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 真人实地调研，专注楼市研究10余年！大胡子教买房为您带来一手消息，助您预判楼市风向，实现资产 稳步增长！ 最近黄金的价格相比关S谈判之后稍微往上涨了一点，最新的黄金价格已经反弹到了3345元/盎 司。 但是我要提醒一下大家，现在买黄金的话，要小心B雷。 最近关于黄金投资出了一档子事，那就是 浙江黄金综合服务商 - 永坤黄金的 庞氏骗局事件。 这件事是怎么回事呢？ 简单说，就是投资人发现在永坤黄金购买的黄金产品无法提现了，平台客服电话也不再有人接 听。 一查才发现，这家黄金综合服务商不仅线下的门店没有了，据说连老板都跑路了。 这老板为什么跑路？ 因为资金链断了，同时引发了大规模的挤兑。 而且最气人的是，这老板不是没钱，他是把钱都转出去买了比特币，把钱都洗白了。 等同于这人里面赚一道、外面又赚一道。 但是机构买的不是黄金，压根没有那么多现金流兑付，最后结果就只能是B雷。 那为什么这件事引起了很多人的反响？ 因为涉及到的资金量太大，据说 涉及到了100多亿的RMB，中招的主要都是浙江本地的老板。 这些老板为什么买这个机构的黄金， 他们其实贪的不是黄金能涨 ...

其实绝大多数人对形势的判断都错了。 从加征关税、技术围堵、制裁企业，到不断叫嚣 "脱钩"。 大家都以为是懂王带着美国想要和我们断绝关系。 但最近一件事，揭开了真相。 今年 3 月，东大 大幅抛售了 189 亿美元美国国债，持有规模降至 7654 亿美元。 这是东大自 2000 年跻身美债前两大持有国之后， 25 年来首次退居全球第三，被英国反超。 减持美债，其实是一个很关键的信号，它意味着此刻 —— 不是美国在和东大脱钩，而是东大，正在悄悄与美国脱钩。 曾经，我们一直是老美最坚定的 "债主"。 时间回到2008年，金融危机席卷 全球，华尔街风雨飘摇，但当时我们选择坚定地支持美国国债—— 持仓规模一度突破1.3万亿美元，规模首次超过日本，跃居全球第一，撑起了美元信用。 但风向，从2015年开始变了。 随着两个大国之间冲突的出现，我们的战略判断在悄悄发生转向： 对美元体系的信任，不再是无条件的； 对外汇储备的构成，也不再是一成不变。 于是，美债持有比例从高点回落，中国开始温和但持续地减持美债。 持有比例从2015年震荡下行，2022年4月跌破1万亿，2024年跌破8000亿。 3月份，海外资金买入美国国债的单月净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is increasingly resembling Japan's "lost 30 years," characterized by low interest rates, low inflation, and low growth, leading to potential asset depreciation and wealth loss for the middle class [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Historical Context - Industrialized nations typically experience high growth followed by periods of recession, with wealth redistribution often resulting in middle-class impoverishment [1][2]. - Historical examples include the U.S. post-Great Depression, the U.K. during the 1970s stagflation, and Japan's economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, all of which saw significant middle-class challenges [1][2]. Group 2: Mechanisms of Economic Decline - High growth periods lead to overproduction and overinvestment, fueled by easy money, which eventually results in economic adjustments and industry corrections [2][3]. - The middle class is particularly vulnerable during these transitions, facing stagnant incomes and declining asset values while still carrying debt [3]. Group 3: Wealth Disparity and Investment Strategies - The current low-growth environment exacerbates wealth inequality, as many individuals are either in debt or losing money on risky investments [4]. - However, certain stable industries and high-dividend stocks can provide consistent returns, even in adverse economic conditions, as evidenced by Japan's high-yield stocks during its "lost 30 years" [4][5]. Group 4: Recommendations for the Middle Class - To navigate the impending wealth divide, individuals should focus on preserving wealth rather than engaging in reckless spending or investment [5]. - It is advised to allocate funds into stable, income-generating assets, similar to Japan's high-yield stocks, to ensure financial security in the coming years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that in a low interest rate environment, saving money is more beneficial than investing, as banks are unable to find high-yield investment opportunities, indicating a pessimistic economic outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The two key indicators to assess the current economic situation are interest rates and gold prices [2]. - High interest rates lead to losses in savings, while low interest rates make saving more profitable [2]. - The price of gold has risen significantly from over 300 to nearly 800 per gram since 2022, reflecting a lack of stable high-yield investments [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical data shows that during economic crises, gold prices tend to rise while returns on stocks, funds, and bonds are lower than savings [2]. - The highest historical savings rates occurred in 1993, with 1-year and 5-year rates at 10.98% and 13.86%, respectively, driven by high inflation rates of 20%-30% [4]. - The period from 2011 to 2018 saw a decline in gold prices, coinciding with a rapid increase in real estate prices [3]. Group 3: Saving Strategies - The primary purpose of saving money now is to preserve capital rather than to earn interest [5][6]. - Suggested saving methods include: - Keeping money in a bank for a low interest rate, with options like large time deposits offering slightly higher returns [7]. - Investing in bank stocks, which provide stable dividends of 5-8%, aligning with the trend of increased capital flow into bank stocks due to new regulations on public funds [8]. - Allocating funds to professional institutions for diversified asset management, which can offer lower-risk investments with guaranteed returns [9].

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming trade negotiations between the US and China, focusing on specific trade issues such as China's restrictions on rare earth imports [2][4]. - The previous negotiations did not lead to a complete resolution, and significant uncertainties remain between the two countries [5][6]. - The US is seeking to ease external pressures due to internal turmoil, including issues related to immigration and national debt [8][12][15]. Group 2 - The US national debt is projected to reach $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, surpassing defense spending [17][18]. - There is a conflict between US leadership and figures like Elon Musk regarding the approach to national debt, with Musk advocating for debt reduction [18][22]. - The article highlights the importance of financial stability and the potential risks posed by US financial policies, suggesting that China is taking measures to mitigate these risks [37][41]. Group 3 - The Chinese government is consolidating financial assets through the China Investment Corporation, aiming to stabilize the capital market amid external pressures [31][34]. - The article notes that the Chinese central bank has been increasing its gold reserves, indicating a shift away from US dollar assets [44][46]. - Market sentiment appears optimistic regarding the upcoming negotiations, but the article cautions that significant differences remain, and any market gains may be temporary [48][50].

前两天，深圳市住建局在官网公示了两份重要的文件： 《深圳市配售型保障性住房管理办法（征求意见稿） 》、《深圳市保障性住房规划和建设管理办 法（修订征求意见稿） 》。 这两个文件一出，就意味着 一线城市的"配售型保障房"终于要进入市场！ 可能很多人还不清楚，到底什么是配售型保障房？ 下面我给大家解释一下。 根据国家的要求以及上述文件，未来的保障性住房有三种： 1、公共租赁住房，面向符合条件的住房和收入困难的家庭 2、保障性租赁住房，面向符合条件的新市民、青年人、各类人才等群体 3、配售型保障性住房，面向符合条件有住房需求的居民。 一线城市的房地产，终于有了最新消息。 所以所谓的配售型保障性住房，就是ZF面向市民正常出售的保障房。 那深圳接下来的配售型住房和之前的安居房以及人才房有什么区别？ 从最新的文件来看，有一句话特别值得注意： 配售型保障性住房实施封闭管理，禁止以任何方式变更为商品住房 大家要知道，各地早期创设的保障房类型中，安居房、人才房在出售并封闭若干年后，可以在补 差价后获得100%产权，变身为商品房，自由上市交易。 因此，改制之后的配售型保障性住房，和之前的安居房、人才房最大的差别就是： 这些房子未 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy has not led to inflation despite significant increases in the money supply, indicating a disconnect between monetary expansion and consumer price increases [1][3][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, showing a lack of price increases in both consumer and producer levels [1][2]. - The broad money supply has increased from 200 trillion to 300 trillion over the past 4-5 years, indicating a substantial monetary expansion without corresponding inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Global Economic Dynamics - The trade tensions between China and the U.S. have disrupted the traditional economic model where China produces goods and the U.S. consumes them, leading to a structural imbalance in supply and demand [7][9][12]. - The imposition of tariffs has resulted in a surplus of goods in China, causing prices to drop and further weakening consumer spending [13][15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Current government subsidies and consumption incentives are merely shifting future demand forward rather than creating new demand, as consumers with existing purchasing power are not incentivized to spend more [16][20]. - The wealth distribution issue is significant, as a small number of wealthy individuals hold a disproportionate amount of wealth, limiting overall consumer spending power [22][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies should focus on catering to the affluent consumer market, as there is potential for growth in luxury and high-end products despite overall economic stagnation [27][36]. - Exploring international markets for growth opportunities is essential, as domestic growth becomes increasingly challenging; companies should consider expanding into developing countries [37][41]. - In a deflationary environment, maintaining cash and investing in interest-bearing assets can be a prudent strategy, as money is expected to retain its value [43][44].

现在有一个非常害人的观点： 因为现在利息低，所以就要把钱拿去投资，不要存款。 事实上，利息高，不代表存钱就一定更划算，利息低，也不一定就不能存钱。 相反，我想告诉大家的是： 现在利息越低，越是要存钱。 为什么这么说呢？ 因为利息低利率低，往往代表此刻整体大环境不乐观。 就说一个很简单的道理： 银行的投资途径和投资能力远超普通人吧。 银行愿意给大家存款更高的利息，是因为它能找到其他更高收益率的投资去覆盖存款利息的支 出。 但是现在银行都给不了大家高息，说明现在这个环境下，银行自己也找不到更高收益率的投资途 径，自然就没法用更高的利息吸引储户揽储。 银行都找不到更好的投资途径，普通人怎么可能找到呢？ 所以，作为一个普通人，如果你想要知道现在的经济怎么样，想要搞清楚当下手里的钱去哪里， 我建议大家就看两个指标就好了： 一个是 利率的高低 ； 一个是 黄金的价格 看这两个指标，谨记下面这两句话： 利率越高，存钱越亏；利率越低，存钱越赚。 黄金越跌，越要投资；黄金越涨，越要存钱。 大家千万不要随意反驳这两句话，因为这两句话都是经过历史验证过的。 黄金这一点我想其实大家是有感受的。 从2022年开始，国内的黄金价格从30 ...

第二， 延长生育假 ，将四川生育假延长为生育一孩90天，生育二孩120天，生育三孩150 天，即在原规定60天的基础上，对生育一孩、二孩、三孩的分别延长一个月、两个月、三 个月 第三， 延长男方护理假 ， 将 男方护理假由20天延长至30天 最新消息： 今天四川的官网发布 《四川省人口与计划生育条例（修正草案征求意见稿）》 ，对婚假、生育假 等内容进行调整： 第一， 延长婚假假期，由5天延长至20天 ，自愿参加婚前医学检查的再增加5天婚假 四川打响了延长婚假和生育假的第一枪，大家第一反应是为了 提高生育率 。 如果你以为这只是单纯为了提高生育做出的动作，那就还是把这个政C方向想简单了。 我认为，延长生育假和婚假，其实是第三波救市的一个信号。 为什么这么说呢？ 要搞清楚这个问题，首先得看看前两波是怎么回事。 第一波救市，主要做的是 F 地 产 政C松绑 。 地产多年来是支柱型行业，救市必救地产，几乎成为惯例。 这第一波的动作，也是按照惯性先来的。 先是降利率、解除二线城市的限购，然后是解除一线城市的限购，降低首付比例...... 第二波救市， 是去年924的表态，既说了要救楼市G市，还放出了放水的信号。 这一波 ...

5 月 15 日盘中， 金价大幅跳水。 最近这段时间，价格波动最大的资产就是黄金了。 现货黄金最低下探至 3120 美元 / 盎司，日内跌幅一度接近 1.8% ； COMEX 黄金期货一度跌超 2% ，最低触及 3123 美元 / 盎司。随后金价出现反弹。 要知道，上个月黄金涨得最猛的时候，现货黄金最高一度涨到了 3500 美元 / 盎司。短短两周时间，黄金 价格就跌了将近 400 美元 / 盎司，妥妥的大跳水行情。 现在的黄金价格，相当于是把对等关税短暂实施期间的涨幅全部跌了回去。 黄金能涨，靠的就是全球经济的不确定性，尤其是老美的不确定性。 那在关税顺利协商、不确定性告一段落之后，黄金价格是不是就没有了支撑涨到头了呢？ 对于接下来黄金价格的走势，我们的观点也很明确： 黄金的调整，只是短期的； 黄金价格，接下来还会有长牛行情。 首先我们要知道这一轮黄金行情不是开始于今年，而是开始于 2022 年 7 月之后。 从 2022 年下半年开始，黄金的行情启动， 从1900美元 / 盎司涨到了如今的3100 美元 / 盎司，涨幅达到了 63%。 所以黄金的牛市，不是开始于2025年，只是因为最近懂王的关税，涨得太疯 ...