2025 年 5 月 23 日 行业研究 "增储上产"叠加新能源转型加速，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 68 期（20250522） 要点 "增储上产"持续推进，"三桶油"油气产量有望稳步上行。2025Q1， "三桶油"油气产量保持增长，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油油气当量产 量分别同比+0.7%、+1.7%、+4.8%。目前俄乌、巴以、美伊等地缘政治事 件仍存不确定性，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。"三桶油"响应国家 "增储上产"号召，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油 2025 年上游资本开支 计划分别为 2100、767、1300 亿元，油气当量产量预计分别增长 1.6%、 1.3%、5.9%，在地缘政治不确定性仍存的背景下，"三桶油"油气产量有 望持续上行，在提升企业自身抵御油价波动能力的同时保障国家能源安全， 我们持续看好"三桶油"及下属油服企业。 "三桶油"大力推进新能源产业发展，向综合能源供应商转型。"三桶油" 扎实推进绿色低碳转型，积极布局新兴产业。（1）中国石油始终把天然气 业务作为战略性、成长性和价值性工程大力发展，2024 年天然气产量占比超 过油气总量的 50%； ...

2025 年 5 月 23 日 行业研究 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com "增储上产"叠加新能源转型加速，持续看好"三桶油"及油服板块 ——石化化工交运行业日报第 68 期（20250522） 要点 "增储上产"持续推进，"三桶油"油气产量有望稳步上行。2025Q1， "三桶油"油气产量保持增长，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油油气当量产 量分别同比+0.7%、+1.7%、+4.8%。目前俄乌、巴以、美伊等地缘政治事 件仍存不确定性，我国能源安全受到较多外部挑战。"三桶油"响应国家 "增储上产"号召，中国石油、中国石化、中国海油 2025 年上游资本开支 计划分别为 2100、767、1300 亿元，油气当量产量预计分别增长 1.6%、 1.3%、5.9%，在地缘政治不确定性仍存的背景下，"三桶油"油气产量有 望持续上行，在提升企业自身抵御油价波动能力的同时保障国家能源安全， 我们持续看好"三桶油"及下属油服企业。 "三桶油"大力推进新能源产业发展，向综合能源供应商转型。"三桶油" 扎实推进绿色低碳转型，积极布局新兴产业。（1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [5] Core Viewpoints - The new management team emphasizes a consumer-centric approach and aims for stable growth in both volume and profit. The strategy includes focusing on strategic areas such as "beer + biology + health," deepening domestic and international markets, and enhancing brand communication [1][14] - The beer industry is characterized by stable overall volume and structural upgrades, with significant room for growth in per capita consumption in China. The company aims to meet evolving consumer demands through its "Five New" strategy, which focuses on new products, channels, scenes, demographics, and needs [2][15] - The company is implementing multiple core initiatives to drive sales growth, including a product combination strategy and expansion into new markets, particularly in southern China and overseas [3][42] Summary by Sections New Management Strategy - The new management's strategy continues the previous core strategy but emphasizes a stronger consumer focus and sales growth orientation. Key measures include strategic positioning in "beer + biology + health," deepening market presence, and enhancing brand experience [1][14] Focus on Consumer Needs - The beer industry is experiencing a trend of stable total volume and diversified consumer demands. The company is addressing these needs through its "Five New" strategy, targeting new products, channels, scenes, demographics, and needs [2][15][24] Focus on Sales Growth - The company is committed to a product combination strategy, focusing on core products like classic, pure draft, and white beer. It aims to expand its presence in the southern market and overseas, particularly in regions like South Korea and West Africa [3][42][43] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 48.46 billion, 51.71 billion, and 54.42 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.55, 3.79, and 3.99 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE of 20x, 19x, and 18x for 2025-2027 [3][44]

2025 年 5 月 23 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3380.19 | -0.22 | | 沪深 300 | 3913.87 | -0.06 | | 深证成指 | 10219.62 | -0.72 | | 中小板指 | 6403.36 | -0.56 | | 创业板指 | 2045.57 | -0.96 | 行业研究 【高端制造】工程机械上市公司业绩稳健增长，行业维持复苏趋势——工程机械行业 2025 年 4 月月报(买入) 近期工程机械行业销量维持增长趋势，行业短期具备良好催化剂；两会政策对工程机 械行业支持力度较大，行业中期需求持续复苏有保障；同时随着工程机械行业国际化、 电动化进程不断推进，工程机械龙头企业有望量利齐升。我们看好行业后续长期表现， 推荐三一重工、中联重科（A/H）、徐工机械、柳工、山推股份等主机厂商，以及恒 立液压等零部件厂商。 【食饮】零食量贩龙头企业， 高效周转重塑零售业态——湖南鸣鸣很忙招股说明书 解读(买入) 鸣鸣很忙在上游端通过减少供应链中间环节和规模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [5][44]. Core Viewpoints - The new management team emphasizes a consumer-centric approach and aims for balanced growth in volume and profit. The strategy includes focusing on strategic areas such as "beer + biology + health," deepening domestic and international markets, and enhancing brand communication [1][14]. - The beer industry is characterized by stable overall volume and structural upgrades, with significant room for growth in per capita consumption in China. The company aims to meet evolving consumer demands through its "Five New" strategy, which focuses on new products, channels, scenes, groups, and needs [2][15]. Summary by Sections New Management Strategy - The new management strategy continues the core strategy of the previous leadership, with a focus on consumer-centricity and sales growth. Key measures include strategic positioning in "beer + biology + health," deepening market presence, and enhancing brand experience [1][14]. Focus on Consumer Needs - The beer industry shows a trend of stable total volume and diversified consumer demands. The average beer consumption in China is projected to be 30.5 liters in 2024, indicating potential for growth. The company addresses new consumer demands through innovative products and marketing strategies [2][15]. Focus on Sales Growth - The company implements a multi-faceted approach to drive sales growth, including a product strategy that emphasizes core products and the development of fresh and premium offerings. The southern market is identified as a growth highlight, with plans for new consumption scenarios and product launches [3][42][43]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 48.46 billion, 51.71 billion, and 54.42 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.55, 3.79, and 3.99 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 20x, 19x, and 18x for the same years [3][44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The snack wholesale industry is rapidly expanding, with a focus on penetrating lower-tier markets. The retail market for food and beverages is projected to grow from CNY 5.5 trillion in 2019 to CNY 7.1 trillion in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.2% [13][18] - The company, Mingming Hen Mang, is a leading player in the snack wholesale sector, utilizing an efficient model to reshape retail formats. It has achieved significant growth through a franchise model and has expanded its store count to 14,394 by the end of 2024 [1][28] - The company has a strong presence in lower-tier markets, with a store network covering 1,224 counties and a county coverage rate of 66% [2][41] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The snack wholesale industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the segment of leisure food and beverages maintaining over 50% of GMV share. The retail scale for leisure food and beverages is expected to reach CNY 4.9 trillion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.8% from 2024 to 2029 [13][18] Company Profile - Mingming Hen Mang operates two brands, "Snacks Are Busy" and "Zhao Yiming," and has opened over 1,000 stores in 2022 and 2023. The company aims to exceed 10,000 stores by 2024, with an average of over 20 new stores opening daily [1][28] - The company has a total GMV of CNY 55.5 billion and continues to expand its franchise model, with 7,241 franchisees by the end of 2024 [1][41] Business Model - The company reduces supply chain intermediaries and offers high-quality products at competitive prices. It has a gross margin of approximately 20% based on its 2024 GMV and revenue [2][52] - Mingming Hen Mang maintains a diverse SKU selection, with 3,380 SKUs in stock, and offers products at an average price 25% lower than similar products in offline supermarkets [3][55] Financial Performance - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, achieving CNY 393 billion in revenue in 2024, with a CAGR of 203% from 2022 to 2024. Adjusted net profits also increased significantly during the same period [38][39] - The gross margin has remained stable, with slight increases from 7.5% in 2022 to 7.6% in 2024, while the adjusted net profit margin has also seen a slight rise [39][40] Market Position - Mingming Hen Mang holds a market share of 1.5% in the leisure food and beverage retail sector, ranking as the leading retailer in this category [24][32] - The competitive landscape in the food and beverage retail sector is relatively fragmented, with a CR5 of 6.0% in the leisure food and beverage segment [24][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the engineering machinery industry [1] Core Insights - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The industry is supported by favorable government policies and a recovering demand for infrastructure, ensuring medium-term demand stability [7] - The trend towards electrification in engineering machinery is accelerating, with significant growth in electric loader sales [9] Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the overall revenue of listed companies in the engineering machinery industry reached CNY 355.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was CNY 96.13 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was CNY 29.77 billion, up 16.9% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a net profit of CNY 9.72 billion, a 30.2% increase [4] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the industry in 2024 was 25.5%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The net profit margin improved to 8.7% in 2024, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [5] Sales Trends - From January to April 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 83,514 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4% [6] - The domestic sales of excavators during this period were 49,109 units, marking a 31.9% increase [6] Export Performance - In the same period, excavator exports totaled 34,405 units, reflecting a 9.0% year-on-year growth [8] - The report highlights opportunities for growth in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East markets [8] Electrification and Green Transition - Electric loader sales surged by 254.8% in Q1 2025, with an electrification rate of 19.3%, up 14.3 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The government is promoting a green transition, which is expected to accelerate the electrification process in the engineering machinery sector [9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key players such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the engineering machinery industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing steady revenue growth, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 [3][4] - The industry is benefiting from cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and product structure optimization, leading to a recovery in profitability [5] - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue its recovery due to strong government support and infrastructure investment [7] - The trend towards electrification in the engineering machinery sector is accelerating, with significant growth in electric loader sales [9] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - In 2024, the overall revenue of listed companies in the engineering machinery industry reached 355.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [3] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 96.13 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was 29.77 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, with Q1 2025 showing a 30.2% increase to 9.72 billion yuan [4] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for the industry in 2024 was 25.5%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net margin improved to 8.7% [5] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin slightly decreased to 25.1%, but the net margin rose to 10.3% [5] Sales Trends - From January to April 2025, excavator sales reached 83,514 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, with domestic sales growing by 31.9% [6] - The report highlights a significant increase in electric loader sales, with a year-on-year growth of 254.8% in Q1 2025 [9] Government Support and Market Outlook - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support infrastructure projects, which is expected to boost demand for engineering machinery [7] - The report anticipates continued growth in the international market for engineering machinery, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [4]. Core Insights - The IEA and EIA have raised their oil demand forecasts, with the IEA projecting an increase of 100,000 barrels per day in emerging markets for 2026, while OECD countries are expected to see a decline in demand [1][2]. - OPEC+ production has decreased, with a total output of 40.916 million barrels per day in April, down by 106,000 barrels per day from the previous month [2]. - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose challenges to energy security, prompting major Chinese oil companies to increase capital expenditures for upstream operations [3]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The IEA has adjusted its 2025 global oil demand forecast upward by 10,000 barrels per day to 74 million barrels per day, driven primarily by emerging economies [1]. - The EIA's short-term energy outlook predicts a 1.38 million barrels per day increase in global oil demand for 2025, up by 30,000 barrels per day from last month [1]. - OPEC has maintained its 2025 oil demand forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC+ countries' production growth has been revised down by 100,000 barrels per day [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical events, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, highlight the importance of energy security [3]. - China's major oil companies plan significant capital expenditures for 2025, with China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC planning to spend 210 billion, 76.7 billion, and 130 billion yuan respectively [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3]. - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, recommending companies like Jingrui Electric Materials and Tongcheng New Materials [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [4] Core Views - The IEA and EIA have raised their oil demand forecasts, with emerging markets expected to drive significant growth in oil demand in 2025, increasing by 860,000 barrels per day [1] - Despite economic slowdowns, emerging economies are projected to be the main contributors to oil demand growth, while OECD countries are expected to see a decline in demand [1] - OPEC+ production has decreased, and the execution of their production increase plans is under scrutiny, with potential impacts from geopolitical uncertainties [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of energy security amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, with major Chinese oil companies planning significant capital expenditures for upstream operations [3] Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - The IEA's May report adjusted the global oil demand forecast for 2025 upwards by 100,000 barrels per day to 74 million barrels per day, emphasizing the role of emerging markets [1] - The EIA also revised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous month [1] - OPEC's April production fell to 40.916 million barrels per day, a decrease of 106,000 barrels per day from the previous month, influenced by declines in Iran, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan [2] Geopolitical and Energy Security - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, pose challenges to energy security, prompting major Chinese oil companies to respond with increased capital expenditures [3] - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for major Chinese oil companies and their associated service firms [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and well-performing companies in the oil sector, including China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3] - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, as well as in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors [3]