Investment Rating - The report rates the tin industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The central thesis of the report suggests that the price of tin is expected to rise, driven by tightening supply and improving demand conditions, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence and consumer electronics recovery [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Tin: A Competitive Advantage for China, Price Center Likely to Rise - Tin has a low abundance in the earth's crust, with significant resource advantages in China [7]. - Price analysis indicates that supply constraints and macroeconomic factors are expected to boost tin prices [18][34]. 2. Continuous Supply Disruptions, Incremental Growth May Fall Short of Expectations - Supply disruptions are ongoing, particularly in Myanmar, where production recovery is slow [46]. - The report anticipates that global tin production in 2025 will be around 300,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2]. 3. Demand Growth Driven by AI Trends - The demand for tin solder is expected to increase significantly due to the high growth in artificial intelligence applications and the recovery of consumer electronics [3][31]. - The report forecasts a global refined tin supply gap of 8,300 tons in 2025, highlighting a pronounced supply-demand imbalance [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co., Ltd., and Xingye Silver Tin, which are positioned well due to their resource advantages and global strategies [2][3].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the small-cap style outperformed last week, with the CSI 2000 index enhancement strategy achieving an excess return of 18.92% year-to-date [1] - The report tracks the performance of public index enhancement funds for major indices, including CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000, as of July 11, 2025 [8] - The top three public funds for the CSI 300 index enhancement this year are: Anxin Quantitative Selected CSI 300 Index Enhancement A (003957.OF) with an excess return of 8.86%, Changxin CSI 300 Index Enhancement A (005137.OF) with 5.91%, and Changcheng Jiutai CSI 300 A (200002.OF) with 5.33% [9] Group 2 - For the CSI 500 index enhancement, the top three funds this year are: Zhongou CSI 500 Index Enhancement A (015453.OF) with 9.15%, Penghua CSI 500 Index Enhancement A (014344.OF) with 7.72%, and Baodao CSI 500 Index Enhancement A (006593.OF) with 7.46% [16] - The CSI 1000 index enhancement funds show the best performers as: Guojin CSI 1000 Index Enhancement A (017846.OF) with 13.65%, ICBC Credit Suisse CSI 1000 Index Enhancement A (016942.OF) with 13.62%, and Huitianfu CSI 1000 Index Enhancement A (017953.OF) with 11.89% [22] - The top three funds for the CSI 2000 index enhancement this year are: Huitianfu CSI 2000 Index Enhancement A (019318.OF) with 14.1%, Penghua CSI 2000 Index Enhancement A (017892.OF) with 13.04%, and Tianhong CSI 2000 Index Enhancement A (017547.OF) with 10.94% [27] Group 3 - The report highlights that the excess returns of various factors within the CSI indices are tracked, with significant factors identified for each index [7] - For the CSI 300, the best-performing factors last week were market capitalization, high-frequency minute data, and valuation [34] - In the CSI 500, the top factors were high-frequency minute data, growth, and market capitalization [42]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global market risk appetite is recovering, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving US-China relations[6] - Recent announcements of new tariffs by Trump may temporarily impact market risk preferences, increasing geopolitical uncertainty[15] - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to significantly increase the federal deficit, leading to upward pressure on US Treasury yields[16] Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation - Tactical overweight on Hong Kong stocks due to improving market liquidity and risk appetite, with a recommended allocation of 4.81%[24] - Tactical underweight on US Treasuries, with a cautious stance due to fiscal pressures and economic dynamics, recommended allocation of 24.44%[24] - Tactical neutral position on gold, as geopolitical uncertainties still support its value despite recent pressure from improved risk appetite, recommended allocation of 6.20%[24] Group 3: Performance Metrics - The tactical asset allocation portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.37%, with a cumulative excess return of 2.80% relative to the benchmark[30] - Year-to-date performance of major indices shows the Shanghai Composite Index up 4.73%, while the Hang Seng Index has increased by 20.34%[12] - The portfolio's absolute return stands at 7.93% year-to-date, indicating strong performance against the benchmark[30]

Domestic Policy Insights - Since the April Politburo meeting, the central government's research has focused on five key areas: technology, consumption, employment, foreign trade, and platform economy, with technology, consumption, and employment being the primary focuses[2] - The government is promoting the "old for new" policy in home appliances and exploring new business models in cultural and tourism consumption to stimulate consumer potential[12] - Employment strategies include enhancing services for college graduates and migrant workers, and supporting vocational training institutions[12] Capital Market Developments - On July 1, the new "Information Disclosure Management Measures for Listed Companies" came into effect, clarifying disclosure requirements for various industries[31] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds ETFs on July 2 to guide funds into technology innovation[31] - The People's Bank of China released a draft for the "Cross-Border Payment System Business Rules" on July 4, seeking public feedback[31] Global Economic Tracking - The U.S. Congress passed the "Big and Beautiful" Act on July 3, which may impact international trade dynamics[6] - As of July 1, the U.S. manufacturing PMI was reported at 49%, slightly above the expected 48.8%[6] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month[6]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in Hong Kong stocks, a neutral position in gold and RMB, and an underweight in Japanese stocks and US Treasuries [1][13][15] - Global market risk appetite has been recovering, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginal improvements in US-China relations, and resilient macroeconomic conditions in the US [1][11][12] - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump may temporarily impact market risk appetite, but the overall market is expected to adjust back to the previous recovery trend after a brief shock [1][11][12] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to significantly increase federal fiscal deficits, which may lead to upward pressure on US Treasury yields [1][12] - The report expresses optimism about Hong Kong stocks due to improving liquidity and risk appetite, while being cautious about Japanese stocks facing inflationary pressures [1][13][14] - The report highlights the potential for gold to serve as a hedge against risks, despite short-term pressure from improved market risk appetite [1][14][15] Group 3 - The tactical asset allocation strategy includes a focus on sectors with strong growth potential, particularly in technology and emerging industries within Hong Kong [1][14] - The report indicates that the US economy's resilience may support a higher yield environment for US Treasuries, with a cautious outlook on their performance [1][13][14] - The report anticipates that the RMB will remain stable due to the strong growth momentum of the Chinese economy compared to other major economies [1][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4][11]. Core Views - The company experienced significant revenue growth in Q2, driven by national subsidies and a new product cycle, leading to improved operational quality and performance elasticity [1][11]. - The revenue is expected to grow approximately 25% year-on-year, with Q2 revenue anticipated to increase nearly 40% [11]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting EPS of 3.37, 3.92, and 4.37 CNY per share, with growth rates of +140.6%, +16.2%, and +11.6% respectively [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 15,502 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 24,475 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 12.4% [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 612 million CNY in 2023, with a significant increase to 2,514 million CNY by 2027, indicating a growth of 11.6% [2]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve, with Q2 net profit margin estimated at around 10% [11]. Market Data - The target price for the company is set at 77.51 CNY, with the current price at 64.03 CNY [4][5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 36,805 million CNY [5]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 36.59 to 65.27 CNY [5]. Operational Insights - The company’s domestic sales account for 70% of its revenue, benefiting from demand elasticity due to national subsidies [11]. - The X series and T series of the company's products have been particularly successful, with sales of the cylindrical washing machines reaching 310,000 units [11]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its operational structure and efficiency, which has contributed to the improvement in overall profitability [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 29.00 CNY [6][13]. Core Viewpoints - The demand curve for AI is reshaping, driving the company's low dielectric products into a growth cycle of volume and profit, while the sustained prosperity of the wind power sector is expected to support strong production and sales in the wind power yarn and blade business [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 25,893 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase of 0.3%. However, a decrease of 7.4% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery with a 16.4% increase in 2025 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to drop significantly to 892 million CNY in 2024, a 59.9% decline, before rebounding to 1,865 million CNY in 2025, representing a 109.1% increase [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.32 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 0.53 CNY in 2024, and then recovering to 1.11 CNY in 2025 [4]. Investment Highlights - The AI demand expectation has accelerated since May 2025, driven by various segments of the AI industry, including increased capital expenditure from cloud vendors and significant growth in token usage [17][20]. - The wind power installation is expected to be more sustainable than previously anticipated, with a projected 164.1 GW of new wind power tenders in 2024, indicating that the construction cycle is not yet over [18][41]. - The company is positioned as the first domestic supplier to provide second-generation low dielectric products in bulk, with production expected to ramp up significantly in 2025 [13][42]. Industry Outlook - The wind power sector is showing resilience, with a total of 46.28 GW of new installations in the first five months of 2025, indicating strong demand [35][41]. - The company’s blade and wind power yarn businesses are expected to maintain good production and sales levels, supported by the ongoing demand in the wind power market [18][38].

策 略 研 究 商品价格转强，权益分化加剧 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) ——资产配置全球跟踪 2025 年 7 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 上周（7/7-7/11），商品延续强势。欧股强于美日。中债熊平，美债熊陡。金价相对油 /铜/银走弱。美元由贬转升，但欧元/英镑相对美元自年初以来仍保持升值。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.14 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭佼佼(分析师) | | | 021-38031042 | | | guojiaojiao2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523070002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 反内卷预期提升，消费景气边际改善 2025.07.09 融资资金大幅净买入，全球外资回流中美股市 2025.07.07 商品表现较佳，权益涨势收敛 2025.07.06 成交活跃度回落，中盘股估值领涨 2025.07.06 空调排产同比下滑，动力煤价格有 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [4][10]. Core Views - The company is actively enriching its product matrix and strengthening its ambient products, enhancing C-end channel diversification and B-end channel synergy after integrating Mengniu Cheese, leading to a significant improvement in profitability for H1 2025 [2][10]. - The company expects a notable increase in net profit for H1 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 120-145 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 56.29%-88.86% [10]. - The integration of Mengniu Cheese has strengthened synergy across the entire operation, from procurement to sales, enhancing efficiency and profitability [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is 5,322 million yuan, with projections of 4,844 million yuan for 2024, and expected growth to 5,313 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 9.7% increase [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 60 million yuan in 2023 to 225 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 97.7% [3][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.12 yuan in 2023 to 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a projected net asset return rate of 4.9% in 2025 [3][11]. Market Data - The company's target price is set at 33.20 yuan, with a current price of 28.34 yuan [4][10]. - The market capitalization is approximately 14,512 million yuan, with a 52-week price range of 11.78-32.69 yuan [5][10]. Financial Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 241.60 in 2023 to 64.61 in 2025, indicating improved valuation [3][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 1.3% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2025, reflecting enhanced profitability [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [12] Core Views - The company has a strong layout in wind-solar-storage grid-type products and is experiencing continuous breakthroughs in overseas markets, embracing AIDC to establish a second growth curve [3][12] - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 3.8 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to 6.6 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.4% [5][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 500 million in 2023 to 900 million in 2027, with a significant increase of 88.2% in 2023 [5][12] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections: 3.8 billion in 2023, 3.7 billion in 2024, 4.8 billion in 2025, 5.5 billion in 2026, and 6.6 billion in 2027 [5] - Net profit (attributable to the parent) is expected to be 500 million in 2023, 400 million in 2024, 600 million in 2025, 800 million in 2026, and 900 million in 2027 [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecast: 1.10 in 2023, 0.97 in 2024, 1.38 in 2025, 1.66 in 2026, and 1.95 in 2027 [5] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.1% in 2027 [5] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 13.946 billion [6] - The stock price has ranged from 11.16 to 35.14 over the past 52 weeks [6] - The current stock price is 30.68, with a target price set at 37.81 [12] Business Growth - The engineering transmission business is expected to generate 560 million in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 16.7% and a gross margin of 44.5% [12] - Overseas revenue is projected to reach 259 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 122.7% with a gross margin of 54.2% [12] - The company has established over 30 service bases in various countries, including the Netherlands, Brazil, and India, to support its overseas expansion [12] Product Development - The company has invested six years in developing wind-solar-storage grid-type products, which are expected to significantly enhance the safety and stability of power systems [12] - The company has launched various products, including a 1.5-20MW doubly-fed converter for wind power and a 320-350kW string inverter for photovoltaic applications, both designed to support high overload capabilities [12]