1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market has witnessed significant selling of US Treasuries, mainly by global central banks and hedge funds. China and Japan have been reducing their US Treasury holdings, while the UK has been increasing its holdings. The short - term sharp decline in US Treasuries is mainly due to the liquidation and selling by basis - trading related institutions. Hedge fund liquidation can trigger a spiral decline. [3][7] - In 2025, the US has a large debt repayment pressure in the second quarter. The total unpaid debt in 2025 has increased by 4.68% ($1.61 trillion) compared to 2024, with about $6 trillion of debt maturing from April to June, increasing debt risks. [4][21] - In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain high, and liquidity risks need to be vigilant. In the long term, as the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes more apparent, the US economy faces a risk of recession, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, US Treasuries are expected to strengthen. The 10Y US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 4% - 5% in the short term and may decline to below 4% in the long term. [4][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Sellers of US Treasuries - In the past week (April 4 - 11), US Treasuries fell significantly, and yields climbed. The 10Y US Treasury yield rose by a maximum of 47bp to 4.48% within the week, while the 2Y/1Y yields rose by a maximum of 28/18bp. [8] - Among the major US Treasury - holding countries, China and Japan have been reducing their holdings since 2018 and 2021 respectively. In 2024, China and Japan reduced their holdings by $572.9 billion and $554.4 billion respectively. The UK has been increasing its holdings since 2016 and is about to overtake China as the second - largest holder. In 2024, the UK increased its holdings by $342.0 billion. Some financial institutions, such as Japan's Norinchukin Financial Group, sold US Treasuries due to liquidity problems. [9] - The short - term sharp decline in US Treasuries is mainly due to the liquidation and selling by basis - trading related institutions. Hedge funds hold US Treasury spot in basis trading. When US Treasury yields rise sharply in the short term, losses in spot positions can trigger margin calls, leading to further selling of US Treasuries and a spiral decline. [3][14] 3.2 Another Risk Point of US Treasuries - In 2025, the total unpaid debt in the US has increased by 4.68% ($1.61 trillion) compared to 2024. As of April 3, 2025, the total national debt was $36.22 trillion, with about $6 trillion maturing from April to June. The average interest rate on US debt has risen significantly since 2021, increasing the proportion of debt - repayment expenditures. [4][21] - The US Treasury term structure is mainly mid - term notes (2 - 10 years). As of March 2025, mid - term notes accounted for 51.22% ($14.81 trillion) of the total outstanding public debt. [27] 3.3 US Treasury Outlook - In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain high because US hedge funds hold a large number of long positions in basis trading, and there is a negative feedback mechanism between basis trading and rising US Treasury yields. Short - term liquidity risks need to be vigilant, as high yields for a long time may lead to extreme situations such as an increase in loan default rates, a collapse of the high - yield bond market, and a crisis among small and medium - sized banks. [4][31] - In the long term, as the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes more obvious, global economic activities and trade slow down, and the US economy faces a risk of recession. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, US Treasuries are expected to strengthen. The 10Y US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 4% - 5% in the short term and may decline to below 4% in the long term. [4][31]

【AI 产业跟踪】 谷歌版「氛围编程」全栈平产业研究中心 台发布,2028年中国 AI 总投资突破千亿美元 必 摘要:产业最新趋势跟踪,点评产业最新风向 Q AI 行业动态 IDC 发 AI 支出指南:2028年中国 AI 总投资将突破千亿美元 Cerebras CEO: 3-5 年后对 Transformer、英伟达依赖将降低 前 OpenAI 研究员团队发布《AI 2027》预测报告 456 页 2025 年斯坦福 HAI 报告重磅发布 Q AI 应用资讯 国内资讯 字节跳动提出 DreamActor-M1 框架 米哈推出 AI 游戏《Whispers From The Star》 AI 硬件领域推出现象级项目"小智 AI" | ت S | 李嘉琪(分析师) | | --- | --- | | S | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880524040001 | | S | 刘峰(研究助理) | | S | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880124060013 | 海外资讯 NVIDIA 推出 NIM 微服务,简化 RTX AI PC 等智能体工作流 Meta ...

观研究 E 泰 周 曲止 茶 "开门红"的经济:结构如何 2025 年一季度经济数据点评 本报告导读: 一季度经济中生产、消费、投资全面改善,政策受益板块表现更加强劲,下阶段预 计积极政策会继续逐步发力稳增长。 李林芷(分析师) 021-38676666 S0880525040087 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 S0880525040019 投资要点: (券研究报生 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 / 2025.04.17 登记编号 y 登记编号 公观专 ● 2025年一季度经济实现"开门红",GDP 实际同比增长 5.4%,与去 年四季度持平且高于年度增长目标。一方面,促消费、稳地产等政 策叠加春节假期效应,居民各类需求集中性释放;另一方面,外需 仍有韧性,尤其是3月"抢出口"现象再现,对国内生产有一定支 撑。 从分项看,生产、消费、投资增速均有回升,这主要是由于消费补 O 贴、地产托底政策支撑,叠加春节假期效应共振。下一阶段,预计 政策仍会继续逐步积极发力稳增长。 O 风险提示:贸易摩擦影响超预期,海外经济不确定风险。 国泰海通证券 GUOTAI HAITONG SECURIT ...

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.16 略 研 究 "中国版平准基金"的加法与方向 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 本报告导读： 中央汇金明确资本市场"国家队"、"平准基金"的定位，起到了稳定指数、提振信 心的积极效果。在大盘价值板块持续布局外，其在科技成长方向的定价权也在攀升。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 A 股 策 略 专 题 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880520120005 黄维驰(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880520110005 [Table_Summary] 在外部环境扰动的背景下，"中国版平准基金"的入市起到了稳定指数、 提振信心的积极作用。近期，中央汇金公司明确表示将发挥类"平准基 金"作用，看好中国资本市场发展前景，并再次增持指数基金。这一举 措不仅向市场传递了底线思维信号，还凝聚了市场共识，推动投资者从 短期波动中聚焦长期价值。中央汇金公司作为资本市场的"国家队"， 其增持行为有利于快速稳定市场情绪，助力市场底部企稳。此外，央行 也明确表示，必要时将向中央汇金公司提供充 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.16 一汽奥迪携手华为推广智能化 [Table_Industry] 汽车 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——传统车企转型观察 登记编号S0880525040050 本报告导读： 一汽奥迪携手华为，发力汽车智能化布局，相关零部件配套公司值得重视。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 [table_Authors] 刘一鸣(分析师) 021-38676666 [Table_Summary] 推荐奥迪产业链汽车零部件公司：继峰股份、科博达等，受益公司 一汽富维等。我们认为，一汽奥迪与华为合作后，奥迪的智能化短 板将被弥补；而作为传统豪华车巨头，奥迪在车身、底盘方面的设 计经验优势有望支持公司销量继续向上。我们维持行业"增持"评 级，受益标的主要为智能化产业链零部件公司。 奥迪携手华为转型智能化。根据一汽奥迪官网，2025 年一汽奥迪全 部新车型都将搭载奥迪与中国领先科技企业华为携手联合研发的高 阶智能驾驶辅助系统，包括一汽奥迪 A5L、新奥迪 Q5L、全新奥迪 A6L e-t ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the semiconductor equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights that hybrid bonding solutions are becoming a critical breakthrough for AI chips and advanced packaging, with significant developments expected in the coming years [3][4]. - Applied Materials (AMAT) has acquired a 9% stake in Besi, viewing hybrid bonding as a strategic long-term investment, and both companies will collaborate on developing hybrid bonding solutions [3][4]. - The demand for hybrid bonding technology is projected to surge, particularly in the logic process field starting in 2022, with a second wave of demand anticipated in 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Hybrid technology is expected to begin mass production in the logic process field in 2022, with further adoption in the memory sector by 2025-2026 and in advanced packaging (AP) by 2027-2028 [4]. - By 2030, the demand for hybrid bonding equipment is estimated to reach around 1,400 units [4]. Company Developments - AMAT's acquisition of Besi shares is part of a long-standing partnership aimed at developing the industry's first fully integrated equipment solution for wafer-based hybrid bonding [4]. - Besi's equipment orders are expected to increase significantly in 2024, driven primarily by demand from AI applications [4]. Financial Performance - Besi is projected to achieve revenues of €607.5 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, with a gross margin of 65.2% [4]. - The company's order intake is expected to rise to €586.7 million, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, largely due to the growing demand for AI application equipment [4]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends companies such as Tuojing Technology and Northern Huachuang for investment, highlighting their potential benefits from the hybrid bonding technology [4][9].

产业观察 [table_Header]2025.04.16 关税冲突下低空产业：短期冲击有限，长期加速国产替代 产业研究中心 ——低空产业跟踪 11 期 摘要： [本报告导读： Table_Summary] 自美国"对等关税"推出以来，中美贸易关税税率持续升级。对国内 低空产业而言，我们认为短期冲击存在但有限，中长期利于核心环节 的国产替代。 产业要点： | [Table_Authors] | 徐淋(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880523090005 | | | 周天乐(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880520010003 | | | 肖洁(分析师) | 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880513080002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 of 10 关税冲突下低空产业：短期冲击有限，长期加速国产替代。自美 国"对等关税"推出以来，中美贸易关税税率持续升级。对国内 低空产业而言，我们认为短期冲击存在但有限，中长期利于核心 环节的国产替代，核心在于： 第一，与民航产业不同， ...

策略研究 / 2025.04.15 聚焦内需新动力与外贸新格局 方奕(分析师) 021-38676666 主题风向标4月第2期 登记编与 S0880520120005 本报告导读: 苏徽(分析师) 主题交易热度显著提升,内外需方向交替走强。关注"两重两新"等内需政策加力 和外贸格局的新变化。推荐:内需消费/周边经济/自主可控/并购重组。 管 元编亏 投资要点: 主题温度计:主题交易热度显著提升,内外需方向交替走强。4月 7 日-4 月 11 日热点主题日均成交额平均 6.59 亿元,日均换手率 4.18%,均大幅提升。关税事件扰动下本期主题走势先抑后扬,随着 关税冲击烈度的变化交易结构上内外需方向轮动,社服零售、农业 等内需方向率先走强而外贸方向回调,随后关税批动烈度回落且部 分领域商品豁免预期提升,消费电子等外贸方向反弹。热点主题资 金整体显著净流入核心资产方向,小市值类主题资金净流出。主题 交易的核心叙事逻辑从交易关税冲击切换到交易提振内需政策和关 税冲击的烈度下降,情绪扰动逐步减弱投资逻辑有望回归内需与科 技主线,关注"两重两新"等内需政策加力和外贸格局的新变化。 主题一:内需消费。内需有望成为拉动经济 ...

[table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) 本报告导读： 关税博弈持续，美元资产波动中显现配置机遇，芯片成为本轮中美博弈重要抓手， 新规将芯片原产地认定为流片地。华为云推出 384 超节点，看好国内 AI 进展加速。 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.14 关税博弈，海外资产波动中显现新机遇 [Table_Industry] 海外科技 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——海外科技行业 2025 年第 14 期 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880523110003 [Table_Summary] 大盘行情上，（2025.4.6-2025.4.12）恒生指数下跌 8.47%，恒生科技 指数下跌 7.77%，道琼斯工业指数上涨 4.95%，纳斯达克指数上涨 7.29%。 关税博弈持续，美元资产走弱，波动中显现配置机遇。中美关税博 弈持续，特朗普政府提高对华关税税率至 145%，中方反制关税税率 至 125%。当前阶段，市场关注焦点已从税率数字转移至全球贸易格 局重塑的可能性，风险溢价上升推动美国债收益率持续攀升，10 年 期国债上周累计上涨 49 个基点，创 200 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 22.40 RMB [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 demonstrates resilience, and the acquisition of quality road assets by the end of Q1 2025 is expected to enhance profitability. Future industry policy optimization may accelerate, ensuring reasonable returns on expansion and renovation projects. The company is positioned as a reliable dividend stock focused on domestic demand [3][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 6,631 million RMB, projected to increase to 7,092 million RMB in 2024, followed by a decrease to 6,364 million RMB in 2025, and then rising to 8,109 million RMB in 2026 [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1,660 million RMB in 2023, expected to slightly increase to 1,669 million RMB in 2024, and further rise to 1,864 million RMB in 2025 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.01 RMB in 2024 and 1.12 RMB in 2025 [5]. Operational Highlights - The average daily traffic volume is expected to decline by 8% in 2024, with toll revenue decreasing by 5%. The decline is attributed to the expansion of the Xuanguang Expressway, which has led to a significant reduction in traffic [11]. - Financial expenses are anticipated to decrease by 39% due to the reduction in LPR and the company's refinancing of existing loans at lower rates [11]. Acquisition and Expansion - The company plans to complete the acquisition of quality road assets from the group by the end of March 2025, which is expected to enhance profitability starting from Q2 2025 [11]. - The ongoing expansion projects of key expressways are projected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue, with three expressways accounting for nearly 70% of toll revenue [11]. Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2024, consistent with its previous commitments to shareholder returns. The expected dividend yield for 2025-2027 is projected to be 3.9%, 3.9%, and 3.7% respectively [11].