Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.5 yuan [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.827 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 165 million yuan, up 61.10% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 153 million yuan, an increase of 49.11% [2][5]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a projected net profit of 14.5 billion yuan, 17.5 billion yuan, and 20.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 25, 20, and 18 [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **2025 Q1 Performance**: - Total revenue: 3.827 billion yuan, up 6.69% year-on-year - Net profit: 165 million yuan, up 61.10% year-on-year - Gross margin: 42.8%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. - **Future Financial Projections**: - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 14.667 billion yuan, 15.439 billion yuan, 16.076 billion yuan, and 16.566 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 5.3%, 4.1%, and 3.1% [5][10]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 1.056 billion yuan, 1.451 billion yuan, 1.753 billion yuan, and 2.022 billion yuan, with growth rates of 63.7%, 37.4%, 20.9%, and 15.3% respectively [5][10]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is projected at 0.51 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 25 [5][10]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 32.07% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has shown strong performance in its flagship product U8, which has maintained a growth rate of over 30%, indicating a robust market position and potential for further expansion [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the company's reform strategy and its potential to double profits in the next 3-4 years, with a target net profit exceeding 20 billion yuan [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [9][25]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 370 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.45%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.13% to 37 million yuan [2][9]. - The report highlights a continued improvement in same-store sales and stable operational progress, with expectations for gradual improvement in the company's fundamentals throughout the year [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The total revenue is projected to grow from 1,671 million yuan in 2024 to 1,844 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 10.3% [4][10]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 255 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 1.06 yuan in 2025, adjusted from previous estimates due to share buyback impacts [9][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 18 for 2025, decreasing to 15 by 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to remain around 2 [4][10]. Operational Insights - The company experienced a net increase of 501 stores, bringing the total to 5,644, despite closing three existing stores [9][10]. - The report notes a double-digit growth in the group meal business, with a 11.7% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025 [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was recorded at 25.5%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to depreciation from new factory operations [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.07 yuan [1]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 21.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was 580 million yuan, down 21.1% year-on-year [1][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in performance, with total operating revenue of 2.28 billion yuan, down 47.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 9 million yuan, down 88.1% year-on-year [1][9]. - The company's investment income saw a substantial increase, primarily due to gains from the disposal of financial instruments, while the risk management business faced increased asset impairment losses [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a net interest income of 500 million yuan, a decrease of 26.4%, and a net income from fees and commissions of 540 million yuan, down 28.9% [9]. - The company's overseas business showed strong growth, with New Yong'an Financial Holdings achieving operating revenue of 430 million yuan, up 51.1% year-on-year [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 0.34 yuan, 0.42 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [9]. Market Position and Outlook - The company maintains a leading position in the futures industry and is expected to benefit from industry expansion in the long term [9]. - The report projects a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 39 times for 2025, corresponding to the target price of 13.07 yuan [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][21]. Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in Q4 2024, while Q1 2025 is expected to face short-term pressure without altering the overall growth trend [1]. - The company is a leading domestic connector manufacturer, focusing on consumer electronics connectors and strategically positioning itself in the automotive connector market, which is anticipated to open up new growth opportunities [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 46.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.22 billion yuan, up 74.7% year-on-year [6][2]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.72%, and a net profit of 1.64 billion yuan, up 50.54% year-on-year [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.02%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9.94%, with a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, down 23.80% year-on-year [6]. Business Segment Performance - The company's RF connectors and cable assemblies generated revenue of 10.40 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.12% with a gross margin of 43.16% [6]. - The automotive connector business saw significant growth, achieving revenue of 14.61 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 77.42%, with a gross margin of 39.35% [6]. - The flexible circuit board business reported revenue of 5.38 billion yuan in 2024, up 73.06% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 12.61% [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 8.07 billion yuan, 10.31 billion yuan, and 12.24 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 57.14 yuan, with the current price at 50.30 yuan, indicating potential upside [2].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政对消费的支持强于投资 ——3 月财政数据点评 事 项 3 月广义财政收入同比-1.7%，1-2 月同比-2.9%；3 月广义财政支出同比 10.1%， 1-2 月同比 2.9%。 主要观点 一、收入端：单月增速转正，装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好表现 3 月，财政收入同比 0.3%（1-2 月-1.6%），一季度预算收入进度 27.4%，低 于过去三年同期平均水平。分税收和非税收入看： 税收降幅收窄（-2.2%，1-2 月-3.9%），装备制造、科技等行业税收持续良好 表现。一季度，制造业方面，装备制造业保持较高增幅，其中，铁路船舶航空 航天设备制造业、计算机通信设备制造业税收收入分别增长 32.4%（1-2 月 36.3%）、8.5%（1-2 月 9.5%）。服务业方面，文化体育娱乐业税收收入增长 13.4%（1-2 月 14.6%），信息传输软件和信息技术服务业税收收入增长 13.6% （1-2 月 19.4%），科学研究和技术服务业税收收入增长 12.6%（1-2 月 16.9%）。 非税持续回落（5.9%，1-2 月 11%），据财政部介绍，（一季 ...

- The top five industries with the highest growth in Q1 2025 were comprehensive finance (10.87%), non-ferrous metals (8.80%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (4.76%), banking (4.03%), and automotive (3.70%) [1][17] - The top five industries with the largest decline in Q1 2025 were coal (-12.25%), non-bank finance (-9.63%), communications (-9.42%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-8.59%), and power equipment and new energy (-7.91%) [1][17] - In Q1 2025, 44 active equity funds were established, including 37 hybrid equity funds with a total scale of 12.815 billion shares, 4 ordinary stock funds with a total scale of 483 million shares, 1 balanced hybrid fund with a total scale of 609 million shares, and 2 flexible allocation funds with a total scale of 246 million shares [2][22][23] - The top five stocks with the largest increase in holdings by active equity funds in Q1 2025 were BYD, Shanxi Fenjiu, Zijin Mining, Ninebot-WD, and Zai Lab-U [4][47] - The top five stocks with the largest decrease in holdings by active equity funds in Q1 2025 were Ningde Times, Hude Electronics, Zhongji Xuchuang, Cambrian-U, and Xinyisheng [4][59] - Among the top 50 companies with the largest increase in holdings, the electronics industry had 13 stocks with a total increase of 24.619 billion, and the machinery industry had 8 stocks [4][53] - Among the top 50 companies with the largest decrease in holdings, the power equipment and new energy industry had 9 stocks with a total decrease of 30.106 billion, the electronics industry had 8 stocks with the largest total decrease of 31.303 billion, and the communications industry had 7 stocks with a total decrease of 28.494 billion [4][61] - The top five industries with the largest increase in holdings by billion-dollar funds in Q1 2025 were automotive, machinery, electronics, non-ferrous metals, and computers [5][70][71] - The top five industries with the largest decrease in holdings by billion-dollar funds in Q1 2025 were home appliances, communications, basic chemicals, food and beverages, and medicine [5][70][71] - The top five stocks with the largest increase in holdings by billion-dollar funds in Q1 2025 were Kelun Pharmaceutical, Zijin Mining, Shanxi Fenjiu, Zhongda Lide, and Zai Lab-U [5][67][69] - The top five Hong Kong stocks with the largest holdings by active equity funds in Q1 2025 were Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, SMIC, Xiaomi Group-W, and China Mobile, with Tencent Holdings having the largest holding of 68.331 billion [6][75][76] - The top five Hong Kong stocks with the largest holdings by QDII funds in Q1 2025 were Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Trip.com Group-S, Prada, and Pop Mart, with holdings of 3.799 billion, 2.764 billion, 1.093 billion, 949 million, and 902 million respectively [6][77]

证券分析师：吴鸣远 证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机行业跟踪报告 SAP 业绩发布，云化业务稳步推进 事项： 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 04 月 24 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 336 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 42,000.86 | 4.33 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 35,778.06 | 4.65 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -11.5% | 3.3% | 36.0% | | 相对表现 | -8.1% | 7.7% | 28.8% | -16% 12% 40% 68% 24/04 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/02 25/04 2024-04-23~2025-04-23 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 《海外科技行业周报（20250414-20250418）：模型 加速 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ruida Futures with a target price of 21.01 CNY, compared to the current price of 15.22 CNY [5][10]. Core Insights - Ruida Futures reported a significant increase in total operating revenue, achieving 1.81 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 95.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 380 million CNY, up 56.9% year-on-year [2][10]. - The investment income was a major contributor to the performance, with net investment income and fair value changes reaching 420 million CNY, a staggering increase of 439.7% year-on-year [10]. - The company is positioned as a leader in CTA asset management, with expectations for long-term performance growth driven by an increase in asset management scale [10]. Financial Summary - Total operating revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.98 billion CNY, 2.30 billion CNY, and 2.60 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 16%, and 13% [4]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 425 million CNY, 464 million CNY, and 498 million CNY, with growth rates of 11%, 9%, and 7% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.95 CNY, 1.04 CNY, and 1.12 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华辰装备（300809）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 与多家人形机器人零部件企业达成合作，新 品有望贡献业绩增量 当前价：41.40 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2024 年年度和 2025 年一季度报告，2024 年实现营业总收入 4.46 亿 元，同比减少 6.92%，归母净利润 0.62 亿元，同比减少 47.36%。2025 年一季 度实现营业总收入 1.26 亿元，同比增长 0.89%，归母净利润 0.24 亿元，同比 减少 13.11%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 446 | 583 | 931 | 1,189 | | 同比增速(%) | -6.9% | 30.8% | 59.5% | 27.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 62 | 120 | 192 | 256 | | 同比增速(%) | -47.4% | 93.2% | 60. ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 形态学研究之十五：形态学在 ETF 轮动上的研究 ❖ 摘要 ETF 轮动，是指在不同 ETF 之间切换，根据市场情况调整投资组合。可涉及 到不同资产类别、行业或地区。比如如何选择 ETF，轮动的依据是什么，比如 动量、估值、宏观经济指标等。 本篇，我们提出了使用形态作为原始数据，将 ETF 成分股合成 ETF 信号的方 式来做 ETF 轮动。在先前报告中，我们已经成功基于成分股的形态构建了指 数、ETF 的择时策略，现在就是设计指标将同一截面下的各个 ETF 指数数据 可比，就可以构建 ETF 轮动策略。 当我们把 ETF 指数每天的多空个股个数求和后，除以当时该 ETF 指数的成分 股个数，在进行 30 天的 HMA 均线求解后，该指标就表征了该 ETF 从结构上 形态学的看多或者看空力量的变化与对比，由于都除以了成分股个数，也消除 了不同 ETF 因为成分股个数不同不可比的情况。 基于历史数据回测，不管是固定时间点调仓、每日调仓、或者是买入持有信号 消失退出策略等，都可跑赢万得偏股混合型基金指数。固定时间点调仓策略优 势在于计算量少，交易次数低，手续费少，但收益率也一 ...