证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 员工持股计划与少数股权过户，长期价值凸显 [Table_Title2] TCL 科技(000100) 公司 2024 年营收及归母净利润同比增速分别为-5.44%和-29.38%，根据业绩指标测算，2025 年业绩目标将为营 收增速不低于 65.44%或归母净利润增速不低于 89.38%，即 2025 年营收不低于 2729.2 亿元或归母净利润不低 于 29.6 亿元。 | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 000100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 5.83/3.56 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 820.65 | | 最新收盘价： | 4.37 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 790.95 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 18,099.62 | [Table_Summary] 事件： 2025 年 6 月 30 日公司发布 2025 年员工持股计 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 25H1 业绩同比增长 50%-100%，加码新业态、 新渠道、新品类 [Table_Title2] 孩子王(301078) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 301078 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 17.75/4.85 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 167.18 | | 最新收盘价： | 13.25 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 166.25 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 1,254.69 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述： 公司发布 2025 年上半年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 上半年实现归母净利润 11,963.93 万元-15,951.91 万元，同 比增长 50%-100%，中值 13958 万元，同比增长 75%；实现扣非归母净利润 9,607.28 万元-12,009.10 万元，同 比增长 60%-100%，中 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.63-1.70 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.57%-17.40% [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in cross-border payment volumes, with the payment platform "Yipay" exceeding 2.5 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of over 47% [4] - The company is expanding its rental business with new market openings and rental increases, projecting a stable growth trajectory [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total market capitalization of 113.4 billion yuan and a free float market capitalization of 113.39 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 20.28 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [9] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 4.34 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.1% [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.79 yuan for 2025 [9] Market Dynamics - The city of Yiwu has shown strong import and export growth, with a total import and export value of 327.13 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [3] - The average daily market opening rate remains above 97%, with daily foot traffic exceeding 230,000 [3] Management Changes - The chairman of the board, Wang Dong, has resigned due to organizational work arrangements, and a new candidate has been confirmed [5] Future Outlook - The company plans to increase rental prices by no less than 5% annually from 2024 to 2026, alongside the introduction of new business lines such as Chinagoods and Yiwupay [6]

[Table_Title] 量价行业轮动组合 2025 年上半年月胜率为 100% [Table_Title2] ——行业轮动组合月报 证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 1 日 [Table_Summary] ► 量价行业轮动组合 2025 年前 6 个月皆跑赢基准 量价行业轮动组合 6 月份上涨 3.80%，相对于行业等权的 超额收益为 0.04%。今年以来，量价行业轮动组合上涨 7.73%，相对于行业等权组合的超额收益为 3.32%，月胜率为 100%。 2025 年 6 月份量价复合因子值排名较高的行业为：钢 铁、机械、房地产、商贸零售、家电。 风险提示 报告的结论基于历史统计规律，当历史规律发生改变 时，报告中的结论可能失效。市场可能出现超预期波动风 险。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_Author] 分析师：丁睿雯 邮箱：dingrw@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120523040002 分析师：杨国平 邮箱：yanggp@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120520070002 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1 | ...

[Table_Title] 7 月债市，紧跟"破风手" [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ►六月债市，利空渐除，利多酝酿 6 月债市收益率在震荡中下行，大行加力配置短债成为重要主 线。国债3年及以内收益率大幅下行，为"卷到极致"的债市重新打开上 涨空间。此外，随着关税博弈、存单到期、监管是否呵护跨季等潜在 偏空变量被逐一消解，市场开始对增量货币政策心怀期待，长久期利 率债与各期限信用债均受不同程度带动。 ►资金面呈季节性宽松特征 从月度中枢视角来看，7 月资金利率往往处于全年的"洼地"。主 要原因有两个，一是 7 月作为季初月，信贷投放通常不及预期，银行 金市往往有增量资金用于投放；二是 7 月作为下半年开端时点，地方 政府的考核压力不算太强，发力意愿偏弱，地方债净供给或走低。 对于今年 7 月资金面，除历史规律之外，关注公开市场中长资金 到期和政府债发行压力。7 月 MLF 累计到期规模为 3000 亿元，3M、 6M 买断式回购分别到期 7000、5000 亿元，合计 1.2 万亿元，央行的 续作态度同样会对资金面变化起到重要影响。此外，7 月政府债净发 行规模介于1 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 30 日 [Table_Title] PMI 不弱，政策不急 6 月 30 日， 统计局发布 6 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.7%，预期 49.7%，前值 49.5%。非制造业 PMI 50.5%，前值 50.3%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，二季度综合 PMI 平均值较一季度放缓。6 月综合 PMI 反弹 0.3 个百分点至 50.7%，二季度的平均值 为 50.4%，低于一季度的平均值 50.9%，也低于去年二季度的平均值 51.1%，不过要好于去年三季度的平均值 50.2%。综合 PMI 反映制造业和非制造业的生产情况环比走势，与生产法 GDP 环比存在较强的相关性。按照综 合 PMI 环比推算同比，二季度现价 GDP 同比增速可能较今年一季度出现放缓，不过二季度不变价 GDP 同比仍 可能达到 5.0%或略高的水平。 第二，订单和价格指向供需匹配情况改善。价格方面，制造业、建筑业和服务业价格分项分别反弹 1.5、 0.8 和 1.6 个百分点，制造业原材料购进价也反弹 1.5 个百分点，不过四者介于 46-49%区间，仍 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - In the life insurance sector, the premium growth rate continued to expand in May 2025, with original premium income for the first five months reaching 227.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. The life insurance segment saw a significant monthly increase of 24.1% in May [1][2] - The property insurance sector reported a steady growth in auto insurance premiums, driven by new car sales, with total original premium income for the first five months at 78.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [2] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 3,842.39 billion yuan by the end of May 2025, reflecting a 7.0% increase from the end of 2024, primarily due to premium income growth and investment asset appreciation [3] Summary by Sections Life Insurance - Original premium income for life insurance in May was 26.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. The total for the first five months was 187.35 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year [1] - The new investment contributions from policyholders in the first five months were 34.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with May showing a slight increase of 1.2% [1] Property Insurance - The auto insurance segment's original premium income for the first five months was 37.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, while non-auto insurance premiums reached 40.85 billion yuan, up 6.0% [2] - In May, the total original premium income for property insurance was 13.20 billion yuan, with auto insurance contributing 7.53 billion yuan and non-auto insurance 5.66 billion yuan [2] Asset Management - By the end of May 2025, the total assets of life insurance companies were 3,366.27 billion yuan, a 6.7% increase from the end of 2024, while property insurance companies had total assets of 307.76 billion yuan, up 6.1% [3] - The net assets of the insurance industry totaled 360.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the end of 2024 [3] Investment Recommendations - Recent regulatory measures are expected to lower liability costs for life insurance companies, benefiting leading firms in the sector. The current yield on ten-year government bonds is fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7%, with anticipated adjustments in preset rates [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Lao Xiang Ji has initiated a non-deal roadshow (NDR) for its Hong Kong listing, aiming to become the "first stock of Chinese fast food" with over 1,400 stores nationwide [1][8] - The company, LXJ International Holdings Limited, submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January, with a targeted transaction scale of approximately 150 million USD [1][8] - According to Zhaoshang Consulting, Lao Xiang Ji ranks first in the Chinese fast food industry by total transaction volume in 2023, focusing on high-quality home-style dishes and convenient service [1][8] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, proposing 19 key measures to enhance consumer capacity, including encouraging financial institutions to issue loans to key service sectors [2][10] - The guidelines include a 500 billion CNY quota for loans aimed at service consumption and elderly care, as well as support for cultural, tourism, and education sectors to issue bonds [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of financial support in stimulating supply and demand in the service and goods consumption sectors, aiming for a long-term positive impact on consumption [12] Group 3 - JD's food delivery service has surpassed 25 million daily orders within four months of launch, while combined daily orders for Ele.me and Taobao Flash Purchase have exceeded 60 million [3][4] - The report notes that Alibaba has merged Ele.me into its Chinese e-commerce business group to accelerate the development of instant retail [4][13] - Meituan has announced a comprehensive expansion of its instant retail business, including the enhancement of its Xiaoxiang Supermarket and the upgrade of its Meituan Preferred service [4][16]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 国泰君安国际获批虚拟资产交易资格；险资 长期股票投资试点加速推进 [Table_Title2] 非银金融周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: 本周（2025. 6.22-2025. 6.28）A 股日均交易额 14,8 67 亿元，环比增加 22.4%，同比增加 1 22.8%。2025 年二季度至 今日均成交额 12,5 81 亿元,较 2024 年二季度日均交易额增加 52.0%。202 5 年至今日均成交额 13,88 2 亿元,较 2024 年日均 交易额增加 59.5 %。投行：本周发行新股 1 家，募集资金 25.0 亿元；本周上市新股 1 家，募集资金 2.3 亿元。2025 年 至今，A 股 IPO 上市 51 家，募集金额 373.6 亿元。2024 年， A 股 IPO 上市 1 00 家，募集金额 673 .5 亿元。两融：截至 2025 年 6 月 26 日，两市两融余额 18,384.78 亿元，环比增加 0.97%，较 20 24 年日均水平增加 17 . ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (June 23 - 27, 2025), the CSI REITs Total Return Index closed at 1,109.13 points, down 1.38% weekly, ending seven consecutive weeks of gains since April 30, 2025. The CSI REITs (Closing) Index closed at 880.90 points, down 1.46% weekly. After the listing of two new projects, the total market capitalization of the REITs market still decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, and all asset - class sectors pulled back [1][8]. - From the perspective of major asset classes, REITs fell across the board this week, while the equity market and convertible bonds rose, and gold performed poorly [1][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price: All categories pulled back, and the transportation sector declined for two consecutive weeks - All seven REITs sectors fell this week. The transportation facilities sector led the decline with a 2.22% drop after a 1.1% decline last week. Only CICC Shandong Expressway REIT recorded a positive growth of 0.47%, and the road asset operation situation still showed obvious differentiation. The energy sector had the smallest decline, mainly driven by the rise of CITIC Construction Investment State Power Investment New Energy and AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT [2][15]. - At the individual bond level, CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT and CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT, which were officially listed on June 26 and 27, 2025, respectively, both had a 30% increase on the first day, and Yizhuang Industrial Park also hit the 10% daily limit on the next day. Other REITs with price increases this week were Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT, Huaxia Huarun Commercial REIT, etc., and the relevant original equity holders all had strong asset operation capabilities [20]. 3.1.2 Liquidity: The turnover rates of municipal environmental protection and rental housing still led - The overall market trading this week showed no significant change compared with last week. The average daily trading volume was 579 million yuan, the average daily trading volume was 120 million shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 0.61%, with month - on - month increases of 1.80%, 1.41%, and 0 pct respectively [2][24]. - By sector, the sectors with the highest average daily turnover rates this week were municipal environmental protection (1.16%), rental housing (0.88%), and energy facilities (0.64%). At the individual bond level, the top three in trading activity this week were CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT, Guotai Junan Jinan Energy Heating REIT, and Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT [27][29]. - Five projects will be unblocked in July. The impact of the large - scale transaction method on prices remains to be observed [2][32]. 3.1.3 Valuation: After the pull - back, the ChinaBond valuation yields of all projects increased - The across - the - board decline of REITs this week led to a valuation adjustment of the sector. From the perspective of ChinaBond valuation yields, the transportation (5.38%), warehousing and logistics (4.96%), and industrial park (4.90%) sectors were at the forefront, and the project valuations showed obvious differentiation, with individual bonds having room for exploration [2][36]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Initial Offering: China Overseas Land & Investment applied for a consumer REIT - On June 24, 2025, the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" pointed out that financial products and financing models suitable for the characteristics of capital demand should be explored and innovated around key areas of consumer infrastructure construction, and support the issuance of REITs for eligible consumer infrastructure [44]. - On June 26, China Overseas Land & Investment announced that it planned to independently list the "China Overseas Foshan Nanhai Yingyue Lake Ringyu City" shopping center project on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the form of a public REIT, with a planned fundraising of 1.355 billion yuan, and China Overseas Land & Investment would subscribe for about 20% of the fund shares [3][44]. - As of June 27, 2025, there were about 12 - 15 potential issuance projects this year, with an expected total issuance scale of over 20 billion yuan, and the market total scale was expected to exceed 220 billion yuan [44]. 3.2.2 Other Key News This Week - Ping An Ningbo Transportation Investment REIT plans to hold an investor open - day event from 10:00 - 16:00 on July 3, 2025 [54]. - On June 24, the Guojin Asset Management - Happy Valley Hold - type Real Estate Asset - Backed Special Plan was approved, with a proposed issuance scale of 670 million yuan. Happy Valley is a retail business of China Resources Vanguard [3][54].