证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：资金与等待 复盘与思考: 4 月 1 日，匪夷所思的一天，股市在无显性利多背景下迎来反弹，债市资金则在季初日反常收敛。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘板块小幅反弹，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别上涨 0.38%、0.01%、 0.97%；科技表现存在分化，科创综指上涨 0.95%，但龙头代表科创 50、恒生科技仅上涨 0.16%、0.23%；小微盘 表现较为强势，中证 2000、万得微盘股指上涨 0.89%、2.18%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率分别上行 2.0bp、1.3bp 至 1.83%、2.03%，10 年国债期货主力合约下跌 0.08%，30 年国债期货主力合约上涨 0.15%。 商品方面，临近"对等关税"宣布日，全球市场避险情绪进一步加重，金价屡创新高，沪金上涨 1.72%，纽 约金上涨 0.27%，白银表现相对弱势，沪银下跌 0.44%，纽约银下跌 0.10%；工业金属方面，铜价回归震荡期， 沪铜上涨 0.14%，纽约铜微涨 0.01%。国内其他商品 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 学费提价明显，利润受成本费用提升影响 [Table_Title2] 建桥教育(1525.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1525 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 3.4/2.15 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 8.92 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 2.15 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 8.92 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 415.00 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2024 年公司收入/归母净利分别为 9.7/2.24 亿元、同比增长 4.3%/-21.1%。收入增长而利润下降主要由于 上半年受折旧年限变更导致毛利下降（23 年 7 月开始变更），下半年同样存在公司增聘双师教师带来的薪酬增 加、管理费用增加等影响。 2024 年派发末期股息每股 0.1 港元，叠加中期股息每股 0.1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company announced on March 31 that it plans to jointly invest with partners to acquire a 21.58% stake in Compart [2] - The acquisition will enhance the company's platform layout and accelerate development through high synergy between business and technology [3] - Compart is a leading supplier in the global semiconductor gas delivery system sector, with a 2024 revenue forecast of 878 million and a net profit of 162 million, indicating strong profitability [4] - The acquisition valuation of Compart is set at 3.8 billion, with a PE ratio of 23.5, significantly lower than comparable companies [4] - The company aims to leverage its resources to accelerate the integration of Compart's operations into the domestic market, transitioning from an OEM manufacturer to a product-oriented enterprise [4] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company will invest 600 million, while partners will contribute 1.57 billion, forming a special purpose company for the transaction [3] - After the acquisition, the ownership structure of Compart will be concentrated, with the company holding 80.81% [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 3.042 billion, 4.365 billion, and 5.892 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 47.2%, 43.5%, and 35.0% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 198 million, 362 million, and 509 million, with growth rates of 17.6%, 82.6%, and 40.4% [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.65, 1.18, and 1.66 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic semiconductor component sector, focusing on key metal components and integrated products [4][6] - The acquisition aligns with the trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry, where consolidation opportunities are expected to increase [6]

- Model Name: Multi-Dimensional Information Scoring Model; Model Construction Idea: The model scores target indices based on multiple dimensions including historical performance, consensus expectations, and historical momentum[7]; Model Construction Process: The model integrates various factors such as ROE improvement, operating profit improvement, net profit improvement, momentum continuity, expected ROE change, and expected net profit change to score the indices[8][9][10]; Model Evaluation: The model effectively distinguishes between different target indices[9] - Factor Name: Historical Performance; Factor Construction Idea: The factor evaluates the historical performance of indices; Factor Construction Process: The factor includes ROE_TTM quarter-on-quarter change, operating profit TTM quarter-on-quarter growth rate, and net profit attributable to parent TTM quarter-on-quarter growth rate[9]; Factor Evaluation: The factor shows good differentiation ability among different target indices[9] - Factor Name: Consensus Expectations; Factor Construction Idea: The factor assesses the consensus expectations of index constituent stocks; Factor Construction Process: The factor aggregates the consensus expected net profit and consensus expected ROE of index constituent stocks weighted by market capitalization, and observes the marginal changes in analyst expectations through quarter-on-quarter changes[10] - Factor Name: Momentum Continuity; Factor Construction Idea: The factor measures the continuity of momentum; Factor Construction Process: The factor strips out the maximum increase in the interval based on the Sharpe ratio to further characterize momentum continuity, with long-term differentiation ability in the recent 6-month and 12-month momentum continuity factors[11] - The multi-dimensional information scoring model suggested focusing on the following ETFs in April: Sci-Tech Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao, Pension ETF, Securities ETF, Financial Technology ETF, and GEM Artificial Intelligence ETF[15][17] - The Huabao index product portfolio outperformed the GEM index in the first three months of 2025, with a decline of 1.55%, but underperformed the CSI 300 index[12][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been adjusted from "Buy" to "Hold" [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing business pressure due to a slowdown in domestic investment and financing, leading to a significant decline in revenue and profit for 2024. Revenue is projected at 2.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.07%, with net profit dropping by 81.34% to 74 million yuan [1][2]. - The laboratory business contributed 50 million yuan, while asset management income was 90 million yuan, and the fair value change of biological assets was -110 million yuan, indicating a substantial decline in profitability compared to the previous year [2]. - Despite the current challenges, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in domestic demand over the next three years due to ongoing government policies encouraging innovation, which may benefit the company as a key player in the domestic preclinical CRO business [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of 2.018 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 15.1%. The net profit is projected at 74 million yuan, reflecting a significant drop of 81.3% [9][11]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease to 28.4% in 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at 0.10 yuan [9][11]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 1.995 billion yuan, 2.043 billion yuan, and 2.166 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS estimates of 0.50 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.50 yuan [3][9]. Order and Market Trends - The company signed new orders worth 1.84 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 20% year-on-year, with domestic orders falling by 25.5% to 1.46 billion yuan, while overseas orders increased by 11.8% to 380 million yuan [2][9]. - The core preclinical research business generated 1.92 billion yuan in revenue, down 17% year-on-year, with domestic clients contributing 1.48 billion yuan and international clients 440 million yuan [2][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 5.357 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan, down 80.46% year-on-year [2] - The decline in performance is attributed to pressure on demand and channel management, leading to inventory reduction [3] - The company has established a joint venture with Yelang Ancient Liquor Industry, which achieved a revenue of 264 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.78% [4] - The company is transitioning to a more refined channel strategy and has implemented an equity incentive plan to support performance [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit, with high-end and ordinary liquor revenues decreasing by 27.66% and 23.42% respectively [3] - The sales volume for high-end and ordinary liquor fell by 12.09% and 41.69%, while the price per ton for high-end liquor dropped by 17.71% [3] - The company’s revenue from domestic and foreign markets was 1.511 billion yuan and 3.277 billion yuan respectively, with a more significant decline in foreign sales [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to focus on major products, high-end positioning, national expansion, and internationalization in 2025 [6] - The equity incentive plan involves granting up to 203,660 shares at a price of 28.78 yuan per share, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a recovery in performance in 2025, with projected revenues of 6.061 billion yuan and net profits of 913 million yuan [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.75 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 times [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth driven by both domestic demand and international exports, particularly in military trade and advanced training aircraft [2][3][4][5][6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Overview - The company reported a revenue of 5.25 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.9% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is projected to be 39.24 million yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.18 billion yuan, 11.23 billion yuan, and 13.91 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 186 million yuan, 281 million yuan, and 378 million yuan [9][11] Military Trade - The company achieved a substantial increase in overseas revenue, reaching 1.32 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 548% [3] - The L15 advanced trainer aircraft is highlighted as a cost-effective product with potential to replace light combat aircraft, indicating a broad export market [3] Domestic Demand - The company anticipates a doubling of daily related transaction sales in 2025, indicating a significant increase in demand for trainer aircraft and missiles [4] - Contracts worth 6.446 billion yuan have been signed but not yet fulfilled, expected to contribute to revenue in 2025 [4] Drone Development - The company is positioned to enter a phase of increased demand for drones, with a growing trend in military applications globally [5] Large Aircraft Projects - The C919 aircraft project is accelerating deliveries, with the company supporting increased production capacity from 50 to 75 units per year [6] Low-altitude Aircraft - The company has received necessary certifications for its initial training aircraft, which has entered the civil aviation market and secured multiple orders [8] Investment Recommendations - The company is recognized as the only platform in China for the assembly of aircraft and missiles, with a diversified product range that is expected to lead to a rebound in performance and rapid growth [9]

证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Title] 量价行业轮动组合 3 月上涨 0.56% [Table_Title2] ——行业轮动组合月报 [Table_Summary] ► 量价行业轮动组合 3 月上涨 0.56% 2010 年至 2025 年 3 月，量价行业轮动组合的累计收益为 707.32%，相对于全部行业等权组合的累计超额为 613.37%。 量价行业轮动组合 3 月份上涨 0.56%，相对于行业等权的超额 收益为 0.53%。 2025 年 4 月份量价复合因子值排名较高的行业为：家 电、银行、轻工制造、交通运输、房地产。 风险提示 报告的结论基于历史统计规律，当历史规律发生改变 时，报告中的结论可能失效。市场可能出现超预期波动风 险。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_Author] 分析师：丁睿雯 邮箱：dingrw@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120523040002 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 1 日 分析师：杨国平 邮箱：yanggp@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120520070002 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net loss for 2024, primarily due to slow recovery in post-real estate consumption and a temporary drop in rental income [2][3] - The company is leveraging government subsidies to boost sales and improve occupancy rates in its malls, with a notable increase in "trade-in" orders and sales during Q4 2024 [3] - The company is focusing on high-end home appliance and home decoration ecosystems to enhance its market position and operational quality [5][6] Revenue Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.82 billion, a year-on-year decline of 32.08%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 2.98 billion [2][9] - The company's self-operated malls generated revenue of 5.36 billion, down 21.0% year-on-year, with average occupancy rates of 83.0% and 82.5% for self-operated and managed malls, respectively [3] Profitability Summary - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 58.26%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -40.79%, a decline of 20.20 percentage points [4] - The company’s operating expenses increased significantly, with a total expense ratio of 58.24% for 2024, up 11.64 percentage points year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 8.20 billion, 8.50 billion, and 8.78 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.02, 0.09, and 0.16 [7][9] - The company maintains a comprehensive online and offline layout, covering home furnishings, home decoration, and high-end appliances, which is expected to enhance its growth potential [7]

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for March is 50.5%, matching expectations and slightly up from 50.2% in the previous month[1] - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.8%, an increase from 50.4% previously[1] - Overall, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors show signs of demand recovery, with new orders in manufacturing up by 0.2 percentage points (pct) and supplier delivery times improving by 0.1 pct[1] Group 2: Year-on-Year Comparisons - Compared to the first quarter of last year, manufacturing shows stronger performance with production and new orders at 4.9% and 2.1% respectively, up from 3.3% and 1.0% last year[2] - Non-manufacturing production and new orders are at 1.4% and -10.9%, significantly lower than last year's 5.1% and -8.2%[2] - The average composite PMI for Q1 is 50.9%, below last year's 51.5% and Q4's 51.3%[2] Group 3: New Momentum and Employment - The EPMI for March is 59.6%, rebounding by 10.6 pct, indicating strong new momentum in manufacturing[3] - Employment in manufacturing and services has slightly declined, with manufacturing at 48.2% and services at 46.5%[5] - The construction sector saw a significant drop in employment to 41.4%, indicating potential challenges in job creation[5] Group 4: Export Orders and Price Trends - New export orders in manufacturing increased by 0.4 pct to 49.0%, but remain below last year's 51.3%[4] - Price indices across manufacturing, construction, and services have declined, indicating weak pricing power, with service prices at a low of 46.6%[4] - The government has set a 2% inflation target for the year, but current price trends suggest a gap to this target[4] Group 5: Market Implications - The report suggests that there is no immediate concern regarding export risks, as new export orders continue to recover[7] - The bond market's focus will be on liquidity conditions in April and the impact of U.S. tariffs on market sentiment[7] - There is a likelihood of monetary easing in April-May, with a potential for reserve requirement ratio cuts, but interest rate cuts may depend on external uncertainties[7]