二是联邦政府就业连续第二个月下降。3 月政府部门整体就业人数新增 1.9 万，低于之前三个月的均值 2.3 万。其中联邦政府就业人数-0.4 万，为 2022 年以来首次连续两个月下降（1 月-1.1 万），背后是政府效率部 （DOGE）持续推进裁撤联邦雇员。据再就业咨询公司 Challenger, Gray & Christmas 的 4 月 3 日公布的调查数 据显示，美国雇主在 3 月份宣布裁员约 27.5 人，较 2 月份增加了 60%，受 DOGE 行动的影响，政府部门裁员最 多，为 21.6 万人。美国劳工统计局在就业报告中指出，带薪休假或领取遣散费的员工被视为在职员工。这意味 着那些被解雇但正在领取遣散费的政府部门员工仍被计入当前就业人数，后续这部分会进一步反应在联邦政府的 就业下降之中。 三是家庭调查显示劳动力市场维稳。3 月家庭调查的 U3 失业率为 4.2%，超过预期和前值的 4.1%。失业率 提升0.1个百分点，主要是由于四舍五入导致的，若精确到两位小数，3月失业率实际为4.15%，较2月的4.14% 仅小幅增 0.01 个百分点。此外，2 月大幅上升的 U6 失业率（考虑了不再寻找工作 ...

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 5 日 [Table_Title] 特朗普关税政策引发全球多数市场进一步回调 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点: 由于特朗普关税政策超预期，本周全 球多数市场出现进一步回调。本周美股出现进一步回调，回调 幅度明显加大。本周美股市场呈现出成长股和价值股大幅回调 的态势；本周美股信息技术、金融、工业、医疗保健、消费、 医疗保健、能源等行业均出现明显下跌。英伟达、博通、脸 书、美光科技、超微半导体等美股科技股周内出现较大幅度的 回调；近期美股金融股中美国银行、摩根士丹利、贝莱德、富 国银行、摩根大通、高盛集团等重要金融股均出现较大幅度的 回调。作为美股市场核心领域的科技和金融大幅回调说明美股 市场抛压较大。由于美股市场短期回调幅度较大，若无客观因 素影响，短期利空消化之后，美股多数成长行业和多数价值行 业将容易出现超跌反弹，但是由于利空因素很难短期真正消 除，预计在未来短期经历超跌反弹之后，美股多数成长行业和 多数价值行业还会有进一步回调。本周 TAMAMA 科技指数大 ...

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0331-0403） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年4月5日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年4月5日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 15.02 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 5 日 中美贸易摩擦升级，我国宣布实施中重稀土出 口管制 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周镍价环比下跌，沪镍大幅去库 截止到 4 月 4 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15650 美元/ 吨，较 3 月 28 日下跌 2.43%，LME 镍总库存为 200400 吨， 较 3 月 28 日增长 0.05%；截止到 4 月 3 日，沪镍报收 12.78 万 元/吨，较 3 月 27 日下跌 1.75%，沪镍库存为 33,256.00 吨，较 3 月 27 日减少 9.94%；硫酸镍报收 28,900 元/吨，较 3 月 27 日 价格持平。根据 SMM 周报，宏观面上，尽管印尼 PNBP 政策 未能如期发布，但市场对其落地预期仍偏高，镍价受到一定支 撑。基本面方面，菲律宾雨季接近尾声，镍矿出货量预期增 加，但当前供应仍偏紧，中高品镍矿价格有所松动，而印尼镍 矿价格持稳偏强。国内镍矿供应紧张导致冶炼厂生产驱动较 弱，印尼镍铁产量稳定运行。下游需求方面，不锈钢板块整体 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [8] Core Insights - In 2024, CODELCO's copper production increased by 0.3% year-on-year to 1.328 million tons, while total copper production reached 1.4419 million tons, a 1.2% increase from 2023 [1][24] - The average realized copper price rose by 7.8% to 411.6 cents per pound in 2024, compared to 381.7 cents per pound in 2023 [3][24] - The direct C1 cash cost decreased by 1.97% to 199.1 cents per pound in 2024, down from 203.1 cents per pound in 2023 [4][11] - The company's revenue for 2024 reached $16.993 billion, a 3.66% increase from $16.393 billion in 2023, primarily driven by the rise in copper prices [7][24] - Gross profit for 2024 was $4.088 billion, reflecting a 31% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 24.1% [12][24] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 30% to $5.439 billion in 2024, up from $4.184 billion in 2023 [13][24] - The net financial debt rose to $22.250 billion in 2024, a 12.1% increase from $19.255 billion in 2023 [17][24] Production and Sales - In Q4 2024, CODELCO's copper production was 454,400 tons, compared to 338,000 tons in Q3 2024 and 384,900 tons in Q4 2023 [1][2] - The total copper sales for 2024 were 1.5702 million tons, a 0.5% increase from 1.5626 million tons in 2023 [3][24] Cost and Pricing - The average exchange rate for 2024 was 944 Chilean pesos per US dollar, compared to 839 Chilean pesos per US dollar in 2023, reflecting a 12.5% depreciation of the Chilean peso [11][24] - Molybdenum production decreased by 6.1% to 15,300 tons in 2024, with a corresponding price drop of 11.8% to $21.3 per pound [6][24] Financial Performance - The pre-tax profit for 2024 was $791 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of $757 million in 2023 [14][24] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 52.4% to $3.6 billion in 2024, compared to $2.4 billion in 2023 [16][24] Capital Expenditure and Future Guidance - Total capital expenditure for 2024 was $4.4 billion, with plans for 2025 to increase to between $4.6 billion and $5.6 billion [20][24] - The guidance for 2025 includes a projected copper production of 1.37 to 1.4 million tons and a cash cost of 195 to 198 cents per pound [22][24]

证券研究报告|行业投资策略报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 3 日 [Table_Title] 保险 2025Q1 前瞻：高质量发展为主线 [Table_Title2] 保险 II [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ► 2024 年保险业绩综述 2024 年上市险企年报表现超预期，五大公司净利润同比增 幅均超 45%，新华保险以 201.1%的增速居首，中国人寿 （+108.9%）、中国人保（+88.2%）等紧随其后。权益市场回 暖显著提升总投资收益率，新华保险达 5.8%（+4.0pp），中国 太保、人保均为 5.6%；但利率下行拖累净投资收益率，人保以 3.9%（-0.6pp）仍领先行业。分红方面，中国平安以 36.5%的 分红率最高，新华保险每股股利同比激增 197.6%成为增幅最大 险企。人身险新业务价值（NBV）高增，人保（+127.0%）、太 保（+57.7%）领跑，主因预定利率下调和银保渠道"报行合 一"推动价值率提升（人保 NBVM 增 14.6pp），但新单保费普 遍缩量（降幅 1.6%-7.1%）。银保渠道贡献显著，人保该渠道 NBV 占比 31.3%（+9. ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed performance in the stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% and the CSI 300 Index declining by 0.08% on April 2, 2025, reflecting a state of low trading volume and volatility [2] - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend in yields, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields decreasing by 2.2 basis points and 3.8 basis points to 1.79% and 1.99% respectively, suggesting a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2][4] - Commodity prices are showing varied trends, with gold prices experiencing fluctuations ahead of tariff announcements, while industrial metals like copper are seeing gains, indicating a complex pricing environment influenced by external factors [3] Market Performance - The stock market is characterized by a cautious sentiment, with trading volumes decreasing significantly, indicating a wait-and-see approach among investors as they await clarity on U.S. tariff policies [6][7] - Small-cap stocks are outperforming large-cap stocks, with the CSI 1000 and Wind Micro-cap indices rising by 0.28% and 0.32% respectively, while the CSI 300 index saw a decline [7] - The Hong Kong stock market is also in a state of flux, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.02% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.35%, reflecting sector-specific dynamics and investor sentiment [8] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The liquidity environment has shifted to a more relaxed state, with overnight rates for non-bank institutions declining to around 1.55-1.60%, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [4][5] - The report suggests that the bond market is entering a downward trend in yields, driven by expectations of further monetary easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or bond purchases by the central bank [5] Future Outlook - The report highlights the importance of upcoming tariff announcements, which could significantly impact market sentiment and trading strategies. A minimal increase in tariffs may lead to a stronger stock market, while a substantial increase could heighten risk aversion and push bond yields lower [5][8] - The report emphasizes that the current market dynamics differ from previous years, with a focus on substantial breakthroughs in the technology sector, suggesting that the mid-term outlook remains positive despite short-term uncertainties [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported a stable recovery in performance with a slight increase in revenue and a decrease in net profit for 2024. Revenue reached 2.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 367 million yuan, a decline of 9.71% [1][2] - The company has shown a strong growth trajectory in new industries, with a 21.25% increase in revenue from new sectors, which now account for 45.47% of total revenue, reflecting a 7.93 percentage point increase year-on-year [2] - The life sciences segment generated 1.094 billion yuan in revenue, up 6.14% year-on-year, driven by automation and intelligent solutions in laboratory settings [3] - The medical innovation segment saw revenue of 1.180 billion yuan, a decline of 4.91%, but excluding the solar vaccine program, it showed positive growth [4] - Domestic revenue remained resilient with a 4.75% increase, while overseas revenue decreased by 8.73%, although it is expected to accelerate in 2025 [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.284 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 367 million yuan, down 9.7% from the previous year [1][10] - The gross margin for 2024 was 48.0%, a decrease of 2.64 percentage points, but if adjusted for accounting policy changes, it would be 50.43%, indicating stability [2] Business Segments - The life sciences segment's revenue reached 1.094 billion yuan, growing 6.14% year-on-year, focusing on automation and intelligent solutions [3] - The medical innovation segment generated 1.180 billion yuan, with a decline of 4.91%, but showed strong growth in hospital automation services [4] Market Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth of 2.620 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 446 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [9][10] - The overseas market is expected to see significant acceleration in 2025, with the company establishing localized teams in over 150 countries [8]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_Title] 24 年业绩稳健增长，后续动保弹性仍可期 [Table_Title2] 国邦医药(605507) [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2024 年来兽药原料价格的持续下跌加快落后产能出清，行业整体 处于大厂博弈阶段。公司 24 年动保业务的毛利率虽有所下行， 但销量仍实现了较快增长，动保原料药 24 年实现销量 8543t， yoy+31.19%。在动保产品方面，公司具备丰富产品矩阵+完善的 全球化销售团队。相较于同行，国邦拥有 20 个动保原料药产 品，能够提供给养殖集团相对综合的服务；其次，公司销售团队 完善，具备广泛有效的全球化市场平台；同时，公司持续布局海 外规范市场，24 年氟苯尼考通过美国 FDA认证，同时在西班 牙、德国、法国、英国等三十几个欧洲国家完成注册；盐酸多西 环素获得欧盟 CEP 证书及通过韩国 MFDS 审计。考虑到当前大 部分产品的价格都属于底部区域，展望未来其产品弹性或可期。 投资建议 公司持续深耕医药+动保大单品，医药板块大环内酯类 API 当前 需求景气度 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 4 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 2024 年锂精矿产销量分别同比增长 129%/131%至 24.08 万吨/23.68 万吨，2025 年计划产量为 27 万 吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►生产经营情况 1、2024Q4 2024Q4，公司锂精矿生产量为 77,034 吨，同比增长 29%，环比增长 28%。 2024Q4，公司锂精矿销售量为 73,900 吨（发货精矿 Li2O 品位为 5.2%），同比增长 14%，环比增长 29%。 2024Q4，公司平均售价为 900 美元/吨（6% CIF 中国）， 环比上涨 9.76%。 2024Q4，公司单位现金成本（CIF 中国）为 427 美元/吨， 2024Q3 为 513 美元/吨，环比下降 17%。这一减少是由于本季 度产量大幅增加而产生的规模经济所致。 2024Q4，公司 AISC 为 592 美元/吨。 通过规模经济货币化，公司 2024Q4 每吨销售成本环比相 比下降了 15%，平均每吨销售产品 ...