Group 1 - The report highlights that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, particularly in the liquor sector, with a focus on new products and channels for mass-market products [1][12][26] - The overall effective demand remains insufficient, with consumption structure adjustments driven by "emotional premium" and "new channel transformation" [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of new retail channels, such as instant retail, which are reshaping the value chain for brand owners, distributors, and retailers, with efficiency being a key factor [2][31] Group 2 - In the liquor sector, the report notes a significant decline in government consumption, which has dropped from 30-40% to around 5% since the introduction of the "three public consumption ban" in 2012, impacting business and mass consumption indirectly [18][21] - The report outlines the 2025 operational goals for various liquor companies, indicating a rational approach to growth targets amid industry consensus on deceleration [23][24] - The report forecasts that the market size for instant retail in the liquor sector will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth observed in online sales during promotional events [32][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with macroeconomic cycles, supply-demand imbalances, and a lack of consumption scenarios affecting stock performance [40][41] - It highlights that the white liquor index has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 12.1% as of June 12, 2025 [40][39] - The report suggests that the social attributes of white liquor are evolving, with younger generations favoring different social consumption patterns, such as casual gatherings and emotional consumption [26][29]

贝森特"化债"的招靠谱吗？（二） [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 分析师：林彦 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100525030001 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com ➢ 在解决美元信用问题上美国确实玩出了"新花样"。如果说我们在上一篇中 讨论的修改监管规则、释放商业银行需求的还属于常规操作，那么深度捆绑稳定 币则是另辟蹊径的一笔——是解不了"近渴"的"远水"，但所谋甚大。 ➢ 利用加密货币这个与传统资产相对独立的新资金池来化债确实称得上 GENIUS（天才，恰巧是稳定币法案的名字） ，不得不承认在金融创新方面美国 确实走在前列。 ➢ 稳定币能不能解决美债的问题？我们认为这背后有两个维度：一个是短期内 比较直接的逻辑，除了在监管上最直接的要求外，还有把自己和"对手"绑在一 起的意味；另一个则是偏中长期、且更间接，通过巩固全球美元体系来支撑美元 信用，进而稳定美债，同时应对人民币国际化的挑战。 ➢ 对于第一个维度，市面上讨论的已经比 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry as a whole, but it highlights several companies with "Recommended" ratings, including Lante Optics, Sunny Optical Technology, and Hengxuan Technology [4][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the leadership of Insta360 in the global panoramic camera market, with a market share of 67.2% in the consumer-grade segment, significantly ahead of competitors like Ricoh and GoPro [2][21]. - The growth of the outdoor sports and social media sharing trends is driving the demand for action cameras, with the global action camera market experiencing a CAGR of 21.2% from 2017 to 2023 [19]. - The report identifies the rise of AR glasses and panoramic cameras as emerging markets, with key players in the supply chain expected to benefit from this growth [2][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The panoramic camera market is expanding, with Insta360 leading the consumer-grade segment and a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas sales, accounting for over 70% in the past three years [1][16]. - The report notes that the global market for panoramic cameras reached 5.03 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth to 7.85 billion yuan by 2027 [20]. 2. Company Performance - Insta360's revenue and net profit have shown rapid growth, with a projected revenue of 5.574 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [24]. - The company has established a strong supply chain, with key suppliers like Hongjing Optoelectronics and Sunny Optical Technology benefiting from its growth [30][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AR glasses and panoramic camera supply chain, highlighting brands like Xiaomi and Insta360, as well as manufacturers like Longqi Technology and Lixun Precision [34]. - The report indicates that the integration of AI and AR technologies in smart glasses presents significant long-term growth potential [34].

水晶光电（002273.SZ）深度报告 光学积淀，AR 领航 2025 年 06 月 17 日 ➢ 光学老兵，多元产业布局。水晶光电成立于 2002 年，作为光学细分领域的 龙头企业，下游布局设计手机、AR 眼镜等消费电子和智能车，致力于成为全球 卓越的一站式光学解决方案专家。目前公司已构建光学元器件、薄膜光学面板、 半导体光学、汽车电子（AR+）、反光材料五大业务板块，2024 年营收占比分 别为 45.94%/39.38%/2.06%/4.78%/6.27%，产品矩阵布局完善，静待下游放 量。 ➢ 消费电子为压舱石，微棱镜+滤光片助力成长。受益于消费电子市场复苏， 及苹果等客户端侧 AI 创新趋势，微棱镜及滤光片等核心器件有望迎来增长。公 司微棱镜业务于 23 年 6 月成功实现量产，伴随大客户在 AI 手机上增长放量， 叠加机种的累加效应，微棱镜市场空间仍存在一定增量。 ➢ 伴随着华为强势回归，安卓系加大对手机摄像头的创新力度，预计旋涂滤光 片的渗透率有望提升。公司滤光片业务进展迅速，根据潮电智库数据，23 年全球 手机滤光片的市场份额上水晶占据第一，达 21%。过去几年在安卓客户端推广涂 覆滤光片产品 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the demand for passenger vehicles in 2025H1 was driven by the continuation of the old-for-new policy, leading to a significant increase in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, which saw a year-on-year growth of 44.3% [1][21] - The overall wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 8.584 million units in the first four months of 2025, reflecting an 11.7% increase year-on-year, while traditional fuel vehicles experienced a decline of 6.3% [1][21] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles remained stable, with a wholesale penetration rate of 46.8% in 2025M1-4, up by 10.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][44] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2025H2, the report forecasts that the continuation of the old-for-new policy will support demand, with expected insurance sales of 24.4 million units, a 7.0% increase year-on-year, and wholesale sales of 29.3 million units, a 6.4% increase [2][11] - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will accelerate, predicting insurance sales of 14.7 million units and wholesale sales of 16.5 million units for new energy vehicles in 2025H2, representing year-on-year increases of 35.7% and 34.6%, respectively [2][11] Group 3 - The competitive landscape is shifting, with domestic brands accelerating their rise and capturing market share from joint ventures, which are expected to see their market share drop below 30% [3][12] - The report notes that domestic brands are expected to exceed 70% market share in 2025, with significant growth in the mid-to-high-end segments, particularly for brands like Geely and Xiaomi [3][12] - The high-end market is experiencing pressure from domestic brands, with BBA (Benz, BMW, Audi) facing challenges in maintaining pricing power due to increasing competition from brands like Huawei and Xiaomi [3][13] Group 4 - The report identifies four major trends in the smart driving sector for 2025H2, including price reductions for smart driving features, accelerated deployment of VLA large models, enhanced hardware capabilities, and the widespread adoption of Door2Door intelligent driving [4][14] - Companies like Xiaopeng, Li Auto, and Huawei are expected to strengthen their competitive edge in smart driving through technological advancements [4][14] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic brands to expand their international presence, with expectations for passenger vehicle exports to reach 5.7 million units in 2025, a 17.0% increase year-on-year [4][12] - The report highlights that companies like BYD and Changan are establishing overseas factories, which will enhance their export capabilities and profitability [4][12]

2025 年下半年宏观经济展望 产业重塑下的宏观剧本 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ➢ 回顾上半年，经济和市场最大的意外和波动是来自于特朗普政策的捉摸不 透。而这种风格带来的主要影响就是预期和实际的分化，例如预期恶化明显，但 实际经济数据却因滞后反应等因素表现韧性。展望下半年，预期和现实的分化会 继续，但是可能会呈现相反的状态。一方面，特朗普政策对预期冲击最大的阶段 已经过去；另一方面，政策对经济的负面影响下半年或将逐步显现。 ➢ 宏观的不确定性依旧是短期内的核心主线，但从更长的视野来看，我们也要 试着去把握一些确定性的叙事和逻辑，海外是美元信用体系的削弱，国内则是"十 五五"等长期战略下，科技产业链的布局。具体来看： [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 陶川 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100524060005 | | | 邮箱： | taochuan@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 邵翔 | | 执业证书： S0100524080007 | | | 邮箱： | shaoxiang@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 林彦 | | 执业证书： S01005250 ...

Economic Overview - In May, industrial output and service sector growth rates were around 6%, indicating a GDP growth rate of over 5% for Q2 is likely[3] - The consumer sector showed stronger performance compared to investment, with retail sales growth reaching 6.5% year-on-year in May, driven by policies like "trade-in" and the early start of the "618" shopping festival[8] Consumption Trends - The "618" shopping festival's early launch and "trade-in" policies significantly boosted retail sales, with a month-on-month increase of 0.93%, the highest in nearly two years[8] - However, potential weaknesses in consumption may emerge as the initial boost from policies fades and some regions adjust or pause subsidies[5] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% in May, with significant declines in non-metallic and chemical manufacturing sectors[9] - Export delivery value growth for large enterprises dropped sharply from 7.7% in March to 0.6% in May, indicating a more significant impact from tariffs compared to small enterprises[5] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment, sales, and construction area all saw year-on-year declines in May, with first-tier city housing prices also falling[10] - The government is responding with new policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including the removal of restrictions in cities like Guangzhou[10] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment growth decreased from 8.2% in April to 7.8% in May, with upstream and midstream sectors showing the most significant declines[9] - High-tech manufacturing is expected to receive support from new policy financial tools to boost investment growth[6] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment growth rates slightly declined in May, with broad infrastructure growth at 9.2% and narrow infrastructure at 5.1% year-on-year[9] - Despite the slowdown, project approvals by the National Development and Reform Commission remain at historically high levels, indicating ongoing construction intentions[6]

一周解一惑系列： 聚变磁约束结构仿星器 VS 托卡马克 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ➢ 本周关注：杰克股份、泛亚微透、景业智能、唯科科技 ➢ 磁约束是当下实现可控核聚变的最佳方式。可核聚变的开发异常困难，主 要在于可控核聚变的产生及其维持的相关条件极为苛刻：首先需要将聚变燃料 的温度加热至上亿度，而目前并没有任何材料能够直接承受如此高的温度。核 聚变被分成惯性约束核聚变和磁约束核聚变，前者利用强激光或强流粒子轰击 聚变燃烧靶，使靶丸中的核聚变燃料变成等离子体粒子，并在几个纳秒的极短 时间内，这些粒子由于自身惯性作用还来不及向四周飞散，此时通过向心爆聚 将粒子压缩到超高温温度与密度的状态发生核聚变反应；后者利用由电流产生 的强磁场将高温等离子体约束在"磁笼"真空容器中，使粒子由无序运动变为 沿磁力线做回旋运动，避免了容器壁面与高能粒子的直接接触。磁约束核聚变 是当前条件下最有可能率先实现可控核聚变能源的方式。 ➢ 世界上主流磁约束装置是托卡马克和仿星器。磁约束装置有托卡马克 （tokamak）、仿星器（stellarator）、反场箍缩（reverse field pinch）、 球马克（spherica ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that 2025 is a pivotal year for the military industry, with a strong upward trend expected from 2025 to 2027, driven by demand recovery and strategic shifts in military capabilities [3][24][25] - The "dual new quality" concept is expected to lead market trends, focusing on new technologies and production capabilities that enhance military effectiveness [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the third quarter of 2025 as a critical time for investment allocation, with military trade and new quality production capabilities gaining significant attention [2][5] Industry Overview - The military industry has shown signs of recovery in orders during the first half of 2025, although financial results have not yet reflected this improvement, with a 34% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q1 2025 [3][26] - The military industry index has remained relatively flat, with a 0.1% increase from January to June 2025, indicating a need for cautious optimism as demand begins to recover [11][15] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical conflicts, such as the India-Pakistan conflict, which has intensified market focus on military trade and advanced equipment demand [4][25] New Quality Combat Power - The report identifies "new quality combat power" as a key focus for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for advanced technologies and innovative military strategies [32] - Key areas of development include advanced aircraft, smart munitions, equipment informatization, and unmanned systems, which are expected to enhance operational effectiveness [32][41] - The report suggests that the evolution of military technology will require significant advancements in materials, such as stealth materials, to improve survivability and operational capabilities [33][37] New Quality Production Power - The report outlines four emerging areas of new quality production power: controllable nuclear fusion, low-altitude economy, domestic large aircraft, and commercial aerospace, each with distinct focus areas for investment [4][5] - Controllable nuclear fusion is highlighted as a critical energy development area, with significant advancements expected by 2025 [4][5] - The low-altitude economy is anticipated to benefit from favorable policies, while the domestic large aircraft sector is focused on supply chain security and production acceleration [4][5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the military sector that are expected to perform well in the second half of 2025, particularly in guided weapons, military trade, and new quality combat power [5][18] - Notable companies to watch include Guoguang Electric, Hailanxin, and Aerospace South Lake, which have shown strong performance in the first half of 2025 [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic positioning in the market as demand for advanced military equipment continues to rise due to geopolitical tensions [4][25]

2025 年 5 月经济数据点评 5 月经济数据的"五大变数" 2025 年 06 月 16 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：张云杰 研究助理：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525020002 执业证号：S0100124080017 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhangyunjie@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 事件： 6 月 16 日，国家统计局发布 5 月份国民经济运行数据。 ➢ 产业韧性和需求不足是当下经济运行的一体两面，5 月经济所呈现出的"生 产稳、投资软，消费升"，表明二季度仍处于政策的观察期。就总量而言，5 月二 产（工业增加值）和三产（服务业生产指数）增速均在 6%附近，表明二季度 GDP 增速 5%以上基本无虞；但结构来看，关税逆风下行业的冷热不均叠加物价走低， 下半年经济所面临的一些新的"变数"正在显现： ➢ 变数一：消费强于投资能否持续？在今年"贸易摩擦"升温的背景下，消费 的表现相对好于投资。"解构"消费，"以旧换新"等政策支持起到了至关重要的 作用，并与"618" ...