许继电气（000400.SZ）2025 年三季报点评 业绩稳步增长，毛利率持续改善 2025 年 10 月 31 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 10 月 27 日，公司发布 2025 年三季报。2025 年前三季度 公司实现营业收入 94.54 亿元，同比下降 1.38%；归母净利润 9.01 亿元，同比 增长 0.75%；扣非归母净利润 8.77 亿元，同比增长 1.48%。单 2025 年第三季 度，公司实现营业收入 30.06 亿元，同比增长 9.30%；归母净利润 2.68 亿元， 同比增长 0.26%；扣非归母净利润 2.59 亿元，同比增长 2.34%。 ➢ 2025 年前三季度公司毛利率同比、2025 年第三季度毛利率环比持续改善。 毛利率方面，2025 年前三季度公司毛利率同比提升 1.94Pcts 至 23.88%，2025 年第三季度公司毛利率环比提升 0.25Pct 至 24.16%。费用率方面，公司 2025 年前三季度公司销售费用率、管理费用率、研发费用率、财务费用率分别为 4.34%、3.35%、5.15%、-0.42%，公司销售费用率、管理费用率等仍具备一定 压降空间。 ➢ 投资建 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a strong growth outlook in the context of the express delivery industry [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a 40.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 due to the "anti-involution" trend [1][3]. - The express delivery industry has shown significant improvement under the "anti-involution" measures, with the company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increasing by 15.8% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 38.57 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 2.19 billion yuan, up 12.4% [2]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.55 billion yuan, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, and a gross profit of 840 million yuan, up 29.2% [3]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 300 million yuan, reflecting a 40.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit margin of 2.2% [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company maintained a market share of 13% for the first three quarters of 2025, consistent with the previous year [2]. - The acquisition of Daniao Logistics is a strategic move to enter the high-end market, enhancing the product matrix and optimizing cost structures [4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.37 billion yuan, 1.81 billion yuan, and 2.29 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 1.19, and 1.50 yuan [4][5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17, 13, and 10 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 111.68 yuan [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a cumulative operating revenue of 1.55 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 470 million yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 480 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 46.2%, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, up 64.4% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in net profit is attributed to the growth in solution services, core component business, and detector business compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 49.8%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 64.4% to 1.4% [1]. - The company’s expense ratio decreased by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 5.1%, 4.8%, 15.3%, and 0.2%, respectively [1]. Market Trends - The medical device bidding market in China showed robust growth, with overall market sizes in the first three quarters of 2025 increasing by 67.5%, 61.7%, and 29.8% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The public bidding market for medical imaging equipment grew by 55.02% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating strong demand [2]. Business Development - The company has made significant progress in the development of various medical tube products, including micro-focus tubes and dental tubes, with several products entering the commercialization phase [2]. - The solution business is expected to continue driving growth, benefiting from the recovery in downstream demand, with projected revenues of 2.16 billion, 2.61 billion, and 3.20 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 129.05 CNY on October 30, 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.71 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.14 billion CNY, up 16.76% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has established a strategic partnership with Jeka Robotics to innovate in the field of embodied intelligence, focusing on integrated smart terminals and the application of AI algorithms in automotive components [4]. - The company is a core supplier for Huawei's AITO brand, contributing to its revenue stability through significant sales of the AITO M9 and M8 models, which have seen strong market performance [3]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.95 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.92%. The gross profit margin for Q3 was 19.86%, with a net profit margin of 10.99% [2]. - The company’s operating expenses remained stable, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing minor fluctuations compared to previous periods [2]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 16.01 billion CNY, 19.11 billion CNY, and 22.63 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 1.73 billion CNY, 2.02 billion CNY, and 2.54 billion CNY [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 6.07 CNY, 7.06 CNY, and 8.90 CNY for the same years, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21, 18, and 14, respectively [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [6][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.712 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 93 million yuan, up 52.39% year-on-year, with a significant increase in the third quarter [1][2]. - The company is focusing on vertical development strategies, continuously evolving its product structure, and has developed new products such as dual-tooth racks and electronic brake gears [3][4]. - The company is expanding its production capacity for planetary roller screws, which are essential for emerging markets like intelligent braking systems and humanoid robots [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 599 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%, and a net profit of 38 million yuan, up 64.40% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q3 was 21.23%, reflecting a slight improvement [2][3]. - The company is expected to see revenues of 2.324 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected at 137 million yuan, and EPS of 0.40 yuan. The PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to be 121, 78, and 46, respectively [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 31.75 yuan on October 30, 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 45.844 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.12 billion yuan, up 18.98% year-on-year [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue was 15.497 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.25% but a slight decline of 1.74% compared to the previous quarter. The net profit for Q3 was 413 million yuan, a significant increase of 35.40% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is positioning itself as a Tier 1 supplier in the automotive and robotics sectors, focusing on core products such as dexterous hands and integrated hardware and software solutions [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross margin was 18.62%, an increase of 2.88 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost reductions in materials and improved operational efficiency [2]. - The company expects revenues of 62.249 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected at 1.619 billion yuan, leading to an EPS of 1.16 yuan [5][4]. Business Development - New business orders surged, with a total order value of approximately 40.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025. The company plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 6, 2025, to fund advancements in automotive intelligent solutions and technology commercialization [3][4]. Market Positioning - The company is enhancing its capabilities in the automotive and robotics sectors, collaborating with leading clients to provide customized solutions and components [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's profitability is stabilizing, and AIDC is expected to become a new growth curve. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 58.98 billion, 74.50 billion, and 91.64 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 27.2%, 26.3%, and 23.0%. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.06 billion, 4.55 billion, and 5.88 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.8%, 48.4%, and 29.3% respectively. The PE ratios for 2025-2027 are expected to be 36X, 24X, and 19X based on the closing price on October 30 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 38.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.32%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.14%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.66 billion yuan, down 12.71% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 13.41 billion yuan, up 12.43% year-on-year but down 3.06% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q3 was 0.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.54% [1][3]. Investment in Data Center - The company has focused its resources on investing in transformer products for data centers. In the first half of 2025, the production capacity for data center transformers gradually increased, with breakthroughs in product structure and market expansion. The product range has expanded from phase-shifting transformers to epoxy resin cast dry-type transformers and oil-immersed transformers, with sales extending from the domestic market to overseas markets such as Japan [2]. Global Expansion - The opening of a new smart manufacturing plant in Fort Worth, Texas, marks a significant milestone in the company's global strategy. This facility enhances the company's ability to serve North American customers more responsively and flexibly while mitigating potential trade and logistics risks [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its leading position in the special power supply industry and strategic layout in various fields [4][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant turnaround in Q3 2025, reporting a revenue of 3.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.87%, and a net profit of 0.05 billion yuan, marking its first profit since Q3 2023 [1][2]. - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with R&D expenses amounting to 297 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.30%, despite a decrease in the R&D expense ratio [2][3]. - The company is actively promoting its data center power products, which is one of its strategic directions, and has completed a stock incentive plan to motivate its employees [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 929 million yuan, up 36.16% year-on-year, with a net profit of -90 million yuan, an improvement from -138 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 40.04%, slightly down by 2.06 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 41.42% in Q3 2025 [1][2]. Cost Management - The company reduced its period expense ratio by 14.43 percentage points to 49.02% in the first three quarters of 2025, with decreases in sales and management expense ratios [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan, granting 6.05 million restricted shares to 283 eligible employees, with performance targets set for revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 [3]. - The company is expanding its business into data center power supplies and other fields such as low-orbit satellite constellations and power semiconductors [4]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 44 million yuan, 252 million yuan, and 474 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 338x, 59x, and 31x [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.24 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50 million yuan, down 55.3% year-on-year. However, Q3 2025 showed a revenue of 510 million yuan, an 18.3% increase year-on-year and an 18.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in performance, with significant improvements in Q3, driven by growth in data center switch sales and breakthroughs in overseas markets and server business. The operating cash flow for Q3 reached 160 million yuan, a substantial improvement from the negative 130 million yuan in Q2 [2]. - The company launched a stock incentive plan for 2025, granting 1.3953 million stock options (2.01% of total shares) to 430 core personnel, indicating management's confidence in future growth [3]. - The transfer of 15% equity in its subsidiary, Feiling Guoyi, to Guoyi New Energy is aimed at optimizing resource allocation, as the subsidiary has not achieved effective profitability [3]. - The company is making positive progress in its server and self-developed white-box switch products, with successful deliveries and advancements in high-end data center switches [4]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 1.679 billion yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of -19.1%, and expects to achieve 1.789 billion yuan in 2025, a growth rate of 6.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 78 million yuan in 2025, down 33.4% year-on-year [5][10]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 89, 65, and 36, respectively, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as earnings grow [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its leading position in the defense sector and proactive layout in emerging industries [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.838 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 12.36%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.89% year-over-year to 1.737 billion yuan, slightly below market expectations [1]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 4.97% year-over-year to 4.654 billion yuan, with a significant drop in net profit by 64.50% year-over-year to 300 million yuan. The profit margin was impacted by changes in product structure and increased tax expenses [1][2]. - The company is experiencing strong growth in sectors such as defense, new energy vehicles, data centers, and industrial equipment, despite short-term profit pressures due to structural changes in its business [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross profit margin decreased by 6.91 percentage points to 29.70%, and the net profit margin fell by 6.94 percentage points to 11.90%. In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin further declined by 7.32 percentage points to 28.19% [1]. - The company maintained a low expense ratio, with a total expense ratio of 15.50%, down 0.60 percentage points year-over-year. Research and development expenses increased by 12.61% year-over-year to 1.401 billion yuan [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was -608 million yuan, compared to 725 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating cash flow challenges [2]. Growth Opportunities - The company is solidifying its position as a preferred supplier in the defense sector and is actively participating in emerging fields such as unmanned systems and deep-sea technologies. It has achieved significant breakthroughs in various products [3]. - The company is also focusing on building a "second growth curve" in high-end civil manufacturing, satellite communication, and data center solutions, with the latter seeing a year-over-year business scale growth of 100% [3]. - Internationally, the company is pursuing a strategy of localization in key regions and has seen rapid growth in international business orders, particularly in smart connected electric vehicles, photovoltaic energy storage, and medical sectors [3].