Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the motorcycle industry, particularly recommending companies like Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle [6][15]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is experiencing significant growth, with 250cc and above motorcycle sales reaching a record high in May 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 31.1% and a cumulative increase of 50.4% from January to May 2025 [3][4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of major players in the market, with Chuanfeng Power leading in sales and market share, followed by Qianjiang Motorcycle and Longxin General [6][15]. - The export market is also thriving, with a notable increase in shipments of 250cc and above motorcycles, driven by the growth of leading companies in the 500-800cc segment [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May 2025, sales of motorcycles above 125cc reached 703,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [4]. - For 250cc and above motorcycles, May sales were 101,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 31.1% and a cumulative total of 399,000 units from January to May, reflecting a 50.4% increase [4][5]. Market Structure - The report notes strong growth in the 500cc and above segment, with sales of 500-800cc motorcycles increasing by 96.6% year-on-year in May [5]. - The 250cc to 400cc segment saw sales of 53,000 units in May, up 21.4% year-on-year, while the 400cc to 500cc segment sold 30,000 units, marking a 23.3% increase [5]. Competitive Landscape - The top three companies in the 250cc and above segment in May 2025 were Chuanfeng Power, Qianjiang Motorcycle, and Longxin General, with a combined market share of 48.4% [6]. - Chuanfeng Power maintained a market share of 21.5% in May, with sales of 22,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 48.1% [6][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the motorcycle market, driven by new model launches and an expanding export market, particularly for Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General [11][15]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to benefit from a cultural shift towards motorcycle usage, with domestic brands poised to capture a larger share of the growing demand [15].

Group 1 - The report highlights a mixed performance in metal prices during 2025H1, with strong price resilience observed in copper and aluminum, while other metals like zinc faced declines [3][11][12] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector was robust, with a year-to-date weighted average increase of 15.69% as of May 30, 2025, outperforming major indices [24][30] - The outlook for 2025H2 suggests continued upward pressure on industrial metal prices due to persistent supply constraints and resilient demand, despite external tariff uncertainties [3][35] Group 2 - In the aluminum sector, supply risks from Guinea's bauxite resources are emphasized, with domestic production nearing capacity limits and slow recovery in European electrolytic aluminum production [4][35] - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by the electric vehicle and photovoltaic industries, which helps offset declines in real estate demand [4][35] - The copper market is characterized by a steep supply curve and strong price resilience, supported by domestic policies and overseas supply chain restructuring [5][36] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on industrial metal stocks, particularly in the aluminum and copper sectors, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [5][36] - Key recommended stocks in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, and Tianshan Aluminum, while in the copper sector, Wukuang Resources and Zijin Mining are emphasized [5][36] - The report indicates that the supply-demand balance for copper is tightening, with historical low inventories suggesting potential for price increases [5][36]

交通运输行业 2025 年 5 月快递数据点评 顺丰控股件量增速持续领跑行业，件量和份额同比分别+32%和 0.3pct 2025 年 06 月 20 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 6 月 19 日，各快递公司公告 2025 年 5 月快递服务主要经营指标。 ➢ 行业数据：国家邮政局公布 2025 年 5 月快递行业运行情况，5 月份快递业务量与业 务收入分别完成 173.2 亿件和 1255.5 亿元，分别同比增长 17.2%和 8.2%，2025 年 1- 5 月，快递业务收入累计完成 5924.6 亿元，同比增长 10.3%，快递业务量累计完成 787.7 亿件，同比增长 20.1%。 ➢ 公司 2025 年 5 月月度数据：顺丰/申通/韵达/圆通，1）快递业务收入分别为 193.81、 44.10、44.15、58.49 亿元，收入同比增速分别为+13.4%、+13.0%、+6.7%、+14.8%。 2）业务量分别为 14.77、22.64、23.03、27.64 亿件，件量同比增速分别为+32%、+16%、 +13%、+21%，份额分别为 8.5%、13.1%、13.3%、16.0%，份额环比分别+0 ...

计算机行业动态报告 RWA 的资产上链新拼图：AI 算力租赁 2025 年 06 月 20 日 ➢ RWA 作为架构真实世界资产和 web3.0 的沟通桥梁，承担了 web2.0 向 web3.0 的融资通道功能。RWA 通过区块链技术，将现实中的有形或无形资产 转化为链上数字通证，在 web3.0 世界创造了 web2.0 现实资产的映射，使加密 货币的持有者能够完成对固定收益产品的投资，实现资产多元化和风险分担。 ➢ 从传统金融资产到不动产再到实体经济资产，RWA 链上资产路径持续延伸。 2014 年，USDT 等锚定法定货币的稳定币诞生，成为最早的 RWA 形式，解决了 加密市场的波动性问题。此后，RWA 资产范畴不断向证券、不动产、现实资产 扩展，贝莱德、花旗、摩根大通等国际金融巨头也积极参与 RWA 项目，推动多 元资产上链。以蚂蚁数科和朗新集团的新能源实体资产 RWA 项目为代表，中国 内地 RWA 聚焦实体资产，通过"区块链+物联网"的创新路径，实现链上交易。 ➢ 从充电桩到光伏电站，算力租赁或将成为 RWA 资产链条的下一站。无论是 海外如 Ondo 锚定美国国债，亦或是国内蚂蚁数科和协鑫能科 ...

Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see strong demand during the summer peak season, with a recommendation to focus on pre-peak investment opportunities. The industry has gradually emerged from the low-demand season since March, with rational pricing strategies from airlines supporting demand [3][12]. - In 2024, the total revenue of six listed airlines is projected to reach 521.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a tax pre-profit of 3 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 9 billion yuan in 2023. Different airlines show varying degrees of profit improvement [10][12]. - The report highlights that the international oil price decline will significantly enhance airline profits. A 5% drop in Brent crude oil prices could increase the pre-tax profits of major airlines by 29 billion yuan for Air China and 23 billion yuan for Eastern Airlines [14][15]. Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is anticipated to maintain strong growth resilience, with business volumes expected to increase by 21.5% in 2024 and 21.6% in Q1 2025. The total business volume for 2024 is projected to reach 1.758 billion pieces [32][35]. - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is on the rise, with the CR8 index expected to reach 85.2% in 2024 and 86.9% in Q1 2025, indicating a more consolidated market [32][35]. - Revenue for the express delivery industry is forecasted to grow by 13.8% in 2024, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan, with a slight pressure on average ticket prices, which are expected to decline by 14.2% [35][36]. Group 3: Dividend and Asset Value - The report emphasizes the value of dividend assets in the transportation sector, with cash dividend ratios for highways, railways, and ports projected at 51%, 47%, and 36% respectively for 2024, indicating strong cash flow stability [44][45]. - The TTM dividend yields for these sectors are expected to be 3.0% for highways, 3.3% for railways, and 2.3% for ports, reflecting a stable increase compared to previous years [44][45]. Group 4: Shipping Sector - The shipping sector faces short-term pressure due to US-China tariff disputes, but structural opportunities may arise. The report suggests that the tariff situation could lead to a shift in import demands, particularly for agricultural products, which may benefit dry bulk shipping [48][56]. - Historical data indicates that previous trade disputes have led to increased shipping rates for certain routes, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the current context [48][56].

Funding and Policy Overview - The recent pause in the "National Subsidy" ("国补") program was due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds, which outpaced the issuance of special government bonds[1] - A total of 1,380 billion yuan in central funds will be distributed in batches during the third and fourth quarters, focusing on the implementation of existing funds rather than increasing the 3,000 billion yuan quota[1][4] - As of the end of May, approximately 1,620 billion yuan of the subsidy funds had been allocated, with over half of the expected funds consumed in the first five months[2][3] Impact on Consumer Spending - The "trade-in" subsidy program has significantly boosted retail sales, with May's total retail sales exceeding the trend value by approximately 2.8 percentage points[5] - The year-on-year growth rate for "trade-in" categories in May reached 16.6%, compared to an overall retail sales growth of 8.2%[5][6] - However, due to the rapid consumption of subsidy funds, the growth rate of retail sales may experience downward fluctuations in the coming months[5] Future Considerations - The "trade-in" policy needs to be strengthened in terms of quantity to prevent a decline in consumer momentum, as non-"trade-in" categories only saw a year-on-year growth of 1.6% in May[6] - There is a need for further improvement in policy mechanisms to reduce unfair competition caused by differences in subsidy standards and regional disparities[6] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and fluctuations in exports[6]

基本面选股组合月报 AEG 估值组合 5 月实现 4.66%超额收益 2025 年 06 月 19 日 ➢ 5 月基本面量化选股组合总体超额稳健。5 月，AEG 估值潜力组合和竞争优 势分别以 7.05%和 4.47%的回报率显著超越其基准指数，实现了 4.66%和 2.92% 的超额回报。统计各策略在股票型公募基金中的相对排名，5 月各策略表现基本 均位于中位数以上。 ➢ 竞争优势组合表现跟踪：5 月回报 4.47%，相对于中证 800 超额收益 2.92%，本年绝对收益 5.98%。策略介绍：竞争壁垒分析框架区分为四类行业： 壁垒护盾型、竞争激烈型、稳中求进型和寻求突破型。全区间表现：竞争优势组 合自 2012 年以来年化收益 17.04%，夏普比率 0.66，信息比率 0.12，最大回撤 -47.68%，卡玛比率 0.36。 ➢ 安全边际组合表现跟踪：5 月回报 3.79%，相对于 wind 全 A 超额收益 1.40%，本年绝对收益 2.06%。策略介绍：竞争优势的核心在于塑造企业的进入 壁垒（即"护城河"）。全区间表现：安全边际组合自2012年以来年化收益22.73%， 夏普比率 1.02，信息比率 ...

商贸零售行业2025年度中期投资策略 维稳、谋变，重视新消费 解慧新 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2025年6月19日 * 1 01 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 目录 02 医美 03 黄金珠宝 00 零售行业总览 04 商超百货 05 零售板块投资建议 06 风险提示 01 美妆 C O N T E N T S 零售行业总览——细分板块逻辑梳理 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 2 • 美护：25年1-5月，美容护理板块整体表现强劲。美护赛道悦己属性强，对消费者新需求变化敏感度高，逐步成为新消费的主力赛道。25年下半 年重点聚焦三条投资主线：①产品势能强劲、数据高增；②经营情况改善；③龙头大而全的企业。推荐巨子生物、毛戈平、上美股份、珀莱雅、 丸美生物、润本股份。 • 医美：胶原蛋白赛道景气度高且成长性强；行业需求整体承压情况下对渠道管理能力以及医美产品的运营能力提出更高要求，产品管线的持续扩 充以及平台化运营能力对新一轮投资周期至关重要；建议关注新材料以及新产品管线催化，推荐锦波生物、爱美客。 • 黄金珠宝：近年来，消费者对"非必要支出"更加谨慎，黄金因其卓 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The narrative of a weakening dollar has become a common preference among risk-averse investors since Trump's administration, as significant depreciation of the dollar often leads to revaluation of non-dollar assets[1] - The macroeconomic narrative is a key driver of market direction, with the potential loss of reserve currency status being a significant concern, particularly due to the large debt burden of the U.S.[2] - Historical transitions of reserve currencies have presented substantial asset revaluation opportunities, with past examples showing significant depreciation of the current reserve currency relative to successors and precious metals[2] Group 2: U.S. Debt Analysis - The U.S. government debt burden has increased by 14.6% from 2019 to 2023, while household leverage has decreased by 3.1% and non-financial corporate leverage has decreased by 8.6%[3] - The U.S. government debt level was over 100% before the global pandemic, but concerns were minimal; post-pandemic, the debt has risen significantly, reflecting a societal "leverage transfer"[3] - The pressure from maturing U.S. government bonds is expected to peak in Q1 2027, with an estimated maturity amount of $9 to $10 trillion, compounded by a potential fiscal deficit stabilizing above 5%[5] Group 3: Future Projections - The next two years are critical for the U.S. debt cycle transition, influencing fiscal, monetary policies, and the dollar index[6] - Historical patterns indicate that the current dollar depreciation cycle may last until the end of 2027, with a potential initial rapid depreciation followed by a prolonged period of volatility[7] - Risks include extreme U.S. trade policies leading to faster and larger-than-expected dollar depreciation, which could exacerbate global economic slowdowns[7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift from inventory reduction to capacity reduction, particularly in the liquor sector, with a focus on new products and channels for mass-market products [1][12][26] - The overall effective demand remains insufficient, with consumption structure adjustments driven by "emotional premium" and "new channel transformation" [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of new retail channels, such as instant retail, which are reshaping the value chain for brand owners, distributors, and retailers, with efficiency being a key factor [2][31] Group 2 - In the liquor sector, the report notes a significant decline in government consumption, which has dropped from 30-40% to around 5% since the introduction of the "three public consumption ban" in 2012, impacting business and mass consumption indirectly [18][21] - The report outlines the 2025 operational goals for various liquor companies, indicating a rational approach to growth targets amid industry consensus on deceleration [23][24] - The report forecasts that the market size for instant retail in the liquor sector will exceed 100 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth observed in online sales during promotional events [32][36] Group 3 - The report indicates that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with macroeconomic cycles, supply-demand imbalances, and a lack of consumption scenarios affecting stock performance [40][41] - It highlights that the white liquor index has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date decline of 12.1% as of June 12, 2025 [40][39] - The report suggests that the social attributes of white liquor are evolving, with younger generations favoring different social consumption patterns, such as casual gatherings and emotional consumption [26][29]