Current Situation - The current US tariff policy has a significant impact on China's direct exports to the US, with an estimated shock to China's total value added growth of approximately 1.47%, which is about four times the impact of the tariffs in 2018 [1][15][12] - The sectors most affected by the tariffs include electrical and optical equipment, wood and wood products, basic metals and metal products, mining, machinery, leather products, and footwear [1][15][19] Scenario One: Intensified Division and Focus on US-China Trade - If the US imposes additional tariffs globally, both direct and indirect exports from China to the US will be affected, leading to an estimated increase in tariff shock intensity to 4.5 times that of 2018, potentially dragging down China's total value added growth by 1.72% [2][28][30] - The sectors that will be further impacted include transportation equipment, textiles, wood and wood products, leather products and footwear, basic metals and metal products, and electrical and optical equipment [2][30][31] Scenario Two: China Leading a New Trade Circle - If other countries choose to retaliate against the US, China could see an increase in its share in these countries, potentially leading to a scenario where India, Japan, and South Korea join China's trade circle, while Mexico aligns with the US [3][34] - In this scenario, China's total value added growth may only be dragged down by 0.09%, indicating minimal impact from US tariffs [3] Scenario Three: The Worst-Case Scenario - If other countries impose tariffs on China as a negotiation tactic with the US, the trade circle for China may shrink significantly, leaving only Russia as a partner, while other countries align with the US [4] - This scenario would lead to a negative impact on China's total value added growth across most sectors, with significant losses in leather products and footwear, machinery, wood and wood products, textiles, and electrical and optical equipment [4] Scenario Four: Acceptance, Negotiation, and Retaliation - Countries are expressing varied responses to the US tariffs, with China and the EU implementing countermeasures, while Southeast Asia and India show a tendency to negotiate [5] - In this scenario, China's total value added growth may be dragged down by 1.43%, similar to the current situation, but sectors like leather products and footwear, textiles, rubber and plastics, and machinery leasing may benefit [5] Path to Resolution: Building Demand and New Cycles - The report emphasizes the importance of constructing a new demand system as the global order led by the US is being restructured, with a focus on China's domestic demand as a key area of recommendation [6] - High-quality manufacturing export companies, particularly in machinery, transportation equipment, electrical equipment, and textiles, are highlighted as significant beneficiaries in the new trade order [6]

睿创微纳（688002.SH）动态报告 逐步突破多维感知领域；低空和工业需求持续旺盛 2025 年 04 月 15 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，全年实现营收 43.2 亿元，YOY +21.3%；归 母净利润 5.7 亿元，YOY +14.8%；扣非净利润 5.1 亿元，YOY +16.9%。业绩 符合市场预期。2024 年，公司持续研发投入和新产品开发，加强开拓市场，红 外热成像业务保持稳定增长。 ➢ 4Q24 营收同比增长 30%；资产减值损失影响利润。1）单季度：公司 4Q24 实现营收 11.7 亿元，YOY +30.1%，规模为单季度历史新高；归母净利润 0.9 亿 元，YOY -21.4%。4Q24 营收快速增长，但归母净利润同比下滑的主要原因是公 司资产减值损失同比增加 61.4%。2）利润率：2024 年毛利率同比提升 0.2ppt 至 50.3%；净利率同比下滑 1.6ppt 至 10.2%。公司盈利能力总体稳定。 | 推荐 | 首次评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 54.82 元 | [Table_Author] ➢ 低空/工业等需求旺盛；红外热成像业 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, recommending it based on its growth potential and market positioning [4][46]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.32 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 21.3%, with a net profit of 570 million yuan, up 14.8% year-over-year [1][4]. - The infrared thermal imaging business continues to grow rapidly, driven by strong demand in low-altitude and industrial sectors, with a revenue of 3.91 billion yuan in 2024, a 30% increase year-over-year [2][39]. - The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 733 million yuan, 897 million yuan, and 1.09 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][46]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.17 billion yuan, a 30.1% increase year-over-year, although net profit decreased by 21.4% due to increased asset impairment losses [1][3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 50.3%, a slight increase from the previous year, while the net margin decreased to 10.2% [1][26]. - The company’s total revenue has grown from 380 million yuan in 2018 to 43.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.7% [20][22]. Business Segmentation - The infrared thermal imaging segment is the primary revenue driver, contributing 39.1 billion yuan in 2024, while the microwave RF business generated 290 million yuan, a decline of 29.1% [2][39]. - Domestic revenue reached 3.23 billion yuan, a significant increase of 56.7%, while international revenue fell to 1.03 billion yuan, down 27.3% [2][22]. R&D and Market Position - The company has a strong focus on R&D, with 48.7% of its workforce dedicated to research and development, totaling 1,525 employees [34][38]. - The company has established itself as a leader in the infrared thermal imaging sector, continuously innovating and expanding its product offerings [12][16]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 34x for 2025, which is lower than the average PE of comparable companies [46][47]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth rate in its infrared thermal imaging business, with projected revenues of 47.55 billion yuan, 57.06 billion yuan, and 68.48 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [39][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading securities firms, particularly focusing on those with advantages in brokerage, investment banking, and asset management, such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and China Galaxy [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The performance of listed securities firms in Q1 2025 is expected to show a strong improvement trend, driven by active market trading and a recovery in capital markets since September 2024 [11][4]. - The overall revenue growth for listed securities firms is projected to reach 35% in Q4 2024 and 31% in Q1 2025, with net profit growth expected at 74% and 32% respectively [11][4]. - The report highlights a high pre-announcement rate for 2024 earnings among listed securities firms, with 80% of firms expecting a year-on-year increase in net profit [4][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The securities industry is anticipated to maintain a high growth rate in Q1 2025, supported by active trading and a recovering capital market [11]. - The market's trading volume has significantly increased, with stock trading volume reaching 126 trillion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 123% [2][15]. Business Segment Analysis 1. **Proprietary Trading** - The proprietary trading income is expected to see a slight decline in growth due to a mixed performance in stock and bond markets, with projected year-on-year growth of 51% in Q4 2024 and 35% in Q1 2025 [12][13]. 2. **Brokerage Business** - Brokerage income is likely to remain high, with expected year-on-year growth of 107% in Q4 2024 and 70% in Q1 2025, driven by increased trading activity [2][15]. 3. **Asset Management** - The asset management business is projected to stabilize, with a total asset management scale of 6.10 trillion yuan as of February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% [19][20]. 4. **Credit Business** - The credit business is expected to benefit from a high financing balance, with a projected year-on-year growth of 51% in Q1 2025 [3][22]. 5. **Investment Banking** - Investment banking revenues are anticipated to recover, with a projected year-on-year growth of 40% in Q1 2025, supported by an increase in refinancing and debt underwriting [24][25]. Company Performance Forecast - As of April 14, 2025, 11 listed securities firms have announced expected profit increases for Q1 2025, with average net profit growth reaching 49% [4][31]. - The report indicates that major firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities are expected to show significant profit growth, with CITIC Securities projected to achieve a net profit of 241 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase [29][30].

[Table_Author] 分析师：吕伟 分析师：郭新宇 执业证号：S0100521110003 执业证号：S0100518120001 邮箱：lvwei_yj@mszq.com 邮箱：guoxinyu@mszq.com 彩讯股份（300634.SZ）2024 年年报点评 AI 战略全面升级，智算业务打开成长新空间 2025 年 04 月 15 日 ➢ 事件概述：2025 年 4 月 11 日公司发布 2024 年年报，报告期内公司实现 营业收入16.52亿元，同比增长10.41%；归母净利润2.3亿元，同比下降29.11%； 扣非归母净利润 2.18 亿元，同比增长 16.81%。 ➢ 信创业务持续发力，在鸿蒙原生应用领域持续深入布局。1）信创：公司以 "信创邮箱 + 统一办公平台" 为核心布局信创领域。Rich Mail 邮箱系统拥有国 产自主知识产权，完成全栈信创认证，具备邮件安全网关技术等多项专利，可全 面替代微软 Exchange 和原 IBM Domino 邮件系统，满足企业数字化办公和国 产替代需求。2024 年，Rich Mail 信创安全邮箱系统市场份额持续扩大，成功 签约上银基金、联通在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 224.00 yuan [5]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.18%, and a net profit of 139.6 billion yuan, up 32.85% year-on-year. The shipment volume exceeded 120 GWh, representing a growth rate of approximately 26% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets, with significant growth in regions like the Middle East and Australia, driven by strong demand for energy storage batteries. The company has secured large storage projects in these markets [2]. - The company is developing a battery swapping business in collaboration with China Petroleum, aiming to establish a nationwide battery swapping network with plans to build at least 500 stations by 2025, eventually expanding to 10,000 stations [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 4,415 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22%. The net profit is expected to reach 669 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 31.8% [4]. - The company's gross margin for Q1 2025 was 24.41%, an increase of 9.37 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the net margin was 17.55%, up 2.72 percentage points [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 15.19 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 [4].

交通运输物流行业动态报告 关税落地，关注交运防御资产和顺周期超跌机会 2025 年 04 月 15 日 ➢ 2025 年至今美国对华进口商品累计加征关税幅度达 125%，中国跨境电商 不再适用 T86 清关模式。北京时间 2025 年 4 月 3 日，美国总统特朗普宣布签 署一项行政令，对全球所有国家及地区对美国出口商品额外加征 10%关税，其中 对中国输美商品加征 34%关税，同时取消中国对美国出口商品使用 T86 清关模 式，4 月 8 日、4 月 9 日进一步将对华关税提至 84%、105%（对应年初至今累 计税幅 104%、125%）。我们认为本次美国实施"对等关税"及中国对美国反制 措施强度全面超过 2018 年中美贸易摩擦，短期内或引发经济需求波动进而影响 交通运输企业需求和运营成本，基于贸易摩擦对需求的冲击以及市场对政策发力 预期，我们认为交运行业需优选防御类资产，关注部分顺周期板块超跌机会。 ➢ 首推内需主导、增长韧性强的快递行业，以及受关税影响较小、具备防御属 性的公路行业。1）中国快递行业为内需敞口，复盘上一轮贸易摩擦中 2017-2019 年快递行业营收增速分别为 23.7%、28.3% ...

宁德时代（300750.SZ）2025 年一季报业绩点评 业绩符合预期，发展表现亮眼 2025 年 04 月 15 日 事件。2025 年 4 月 14 日，公司发布 2025 年一季度业绩报告。报告显示， 公司一季度营业收入为 847 亿元，同比增长 6.18%；归母净利润为 139.6 亿元， 同比增长 32.85%；扣非归母净利润为 118.3 亿元，同比增长 27.92%。出货量， 公司一季度出货量超过 120Gwh，去年同期约为 95Gwh，同比增速约为 26%。 单 Gwh 盈利能力，25 年 Q1 约为 1.16 亿元，24 年 Q1 约为 1.11 亿元，24 年 Q4 约为 1.06 亿元，同环比均有所提升。毛利率，25 年 Q1 为 24.41%，环比上 升 9.37pct；净利率为 17.55%，环比提升 2.72pct。毛利率净利率环比均实现不 同程度增加，盈利能力进一步提升，总体业绩质量亮眼。 美国市场敞口有限，新兴市场增长显著。美国业务占公司出货比重较小，且 去年以来公司已经根据环境变化提前做了预案，关税政策对公司业绩影响较小。 公司在匈牙利、德国、印尼、西班牙等海外市场有布局相关 ...

非银行业点评 回调后的"黄金坑":情绪、政策、基本面再平衡 2025 年 04 月 15 日 [Table_Author] ➢ 事件：4/13 央行发布 3 月金融数据。3 月末，广义货币(M2)余额 326.06 万亿元，同比增长 7%。狭义货币(M1)余额 113.49 万亿元，同比增长 1.6%。 2025 年 3 月末，社会融资规模存量为 422.96 万亿元，同比增长 8.4%。2025 年一季度社会融资规模增量累计为 15.18 万亿元，比上年同期多 2.37 万亿元。 ➢ 从 3 月金融数据来看，前期增量政策逐步落地显效，政府债券发行放量对社 融增速提供有力支撑。尽管近期伴随关税政策的不确定性，非银板块估值回调明 显。我们认为当前情绪、政策、基本面三个方面有望再平衡，关税政策博弈后的 非银板块迎来配置"黄金坑"。 ➢ 情绪端，伴随近期美国关税政策的不确定影响，非银板块近期回调明显，我 们认为站在当前时点，在美国关税政策逐步明晰以及我国应对及时的背景下，情 绪面带来对板块估值的拖累有望逐步减缓，伴随非银板块公司业绩基本面的支 撑，券商、保险等板块 1Q25 业绩有望保持良好增长态势，情绪有望伴随基 ...

钧达股份（002865.SZ）2025 年一季报点评 盈利能力边际改善，海外占比显著提升 2025 年 04 月 15 日 ➢ 事件 2025 年 4 月 14 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报。根据公司公告，2025 年一季度 公司实现收入 18.75 亿元，同比-49.52%，环比+7.14%；归母净利润-1.06 亿 元，实现扣非归母净利润-2.17 亿元，亏损情况环比边际改善。 ➢ 费用控制能力提升，盈利能力边际改善 根据公司公告，25Q1 公司销售毛利率/净利率分别为 5.88%/-5.65%，环比 24Q4 分别提升 3.12/4.31Pcts；25Q1 公司费用控制能力环比提升显著，其中销售费 用率为 0.58%，环比-0.62Pcts，管理费用率（含研发费用）为 6.56%，环比- 1.33Pcts。 ➢ 海外市场布局加速，港股发行有望为公司发展注入新动能 公司当前电池片资产均为 N 型 TOPCon 技术路线，产品质量得到海内外客户充 分认可，出货量持续保持行业领先，25Q1 实现 N 型 TOPCon 出货 7.15GW。 公司加速布局海外市场，海外占比由 24 年全年的 23.85%提升 ...