宁德时代（300750.SZ）2025 年一季报业绩点评 业绩符合预期，发展表现亮眼 2025 年 04 月 15 日 事件。2025 年 4 月 14 日，公司发布 2025 年一季度业绩报告。报告显示， 公司一季度营业收入为 847 亿元，同比增长 6.18%；归母净利润为 139.6 亿元， 同比增长 32.85%；扣非归母净利润为 118.3 亿元，同比增长 27.92%。出货量， 公司一季度出货量超过 120Gwh，去年同期约为 95Gwh，同比增速约为 26%。 单 Gwh 盈利能力，25 年 Q1 约为 1.16 亿元，24 年 Q1 约为 1.11 亿元，24 年 Q4 约为 1.06 亿元，同环比均有所提升。毛利率，25 年 Q1 为 24.41%，环比上 升 9.37pct；净利率为 17.55%，环比提升 2.72pct。毛利率净利率环比均实现不 同程度增加，盈利能力进一步提升，总体业绩质量亮眼。 美国市场敞口有限，新兴市场增长显著。美国业务占公司出货比重较小，且 去年以来公司已经根据环境变化提前做了预案，关税政策对公司业绩影响较小。 公司在匈牙利、德国、印尼、西班牙等海外市场有布局相关 ...

非银行业点评 回调后的"黄金坑":情绪、政策、基本面再平衡 2025 年 04 月 15 日 [Table_Author] ➢ 事件：4/13 央行发布 3 月金融数据。3 月末，广义货币(M2)余额 326.06 万亿元，同比增长 7%。狭义货币(M1)余额 113.49 万亿元，同比增长 1.6%。 2025 年 3 月末，社会融资规模存量为 422.96 万亿元，同比增长 8.4%。2025 年一季度社会融资规模增量累计为 15.18 万亿元，比上年同期多 2.37 万亿元。 ➢ 从 3 月金融数据来看，前期增量政策逐步落地显效，政府债券发行放量对社 融增速提供有力支撑。尽管近期伴随关税政策的不确定性，非银板块估值回调明 显。我们认为当前情绪、政策、基本面三个方面有望再平衡，关税政策博弈后的 非银板块迎来配置"黄金坑"。 ➢ 情绪端，伴随近期美国关税政策的不确定影响，非银板块近期回调明显，我 们认为站在当前时点，在美国关税政策逐步明晰以及我国应对及时的背景下，情 绪面带来对板块估值的拖累有望逐步减缓，伴随非银板块公司业绩基本面的支 撑，券商、保险等板块 1Q25 业绩有望保持良好增长态势，情绪有望伴随基 ...

钧达股份（002865.SZ）2025 年一季报点评 盈利能力边际改善，海外占比显著提升 2025 年 04 月 15 日 ➢ 事件 2025 年 4 月 14 日，公司发布 2025 年一季报。根据公司公告，2025 年一季度 公司实现收入 18.75 亿元，同比-49.52%，环比+7.14%；归母净利润-1.06 亿 元，实现扣非归母净利润-2.17 亿元，亏损情况环比边际改善。 ➢ 费用控制能力提升，盈利能力边际改善 根据公司公告，25Q1 公司销售毛利率/净利率分别为 5.88%/-5.65%，环比 24Q4 分别提升 3.12/4.31Pcts；25Q1 公司费用控制能力环比提升显著，其中销售费 用率为 0.58%，环比-0.62Pcts，管理费用率（含研发费用）为 6.56%，环比- 1.33Pcts。 ➢ 海外市场布局加速，港股发行有望为公司发展注入新动能 公司当前电池片资产均为 N 型 TOPCon 技术路线，产品质量得到海内外客户充 分认可，出货量持续保持行业领先，25Q1 实现 N 型 TOPCon 出货 7.15GW。 公司加速布局海外市场，海外占比由 24 年全年的 23.85%提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company has exceeded market expectations with its Q1 2025 performance, driven by significant growth in its "Wujie" brand and channel motorcycle business [2]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 16.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 28.7%, and a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, reflecting a 97.1% increase [6]. - The report highlights the strong sales performance of the "Wujie" brand, particularly in the large-displacement motorcycle segment, which saw a 55.9% increase in sales [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 16.82 billion yuan, a 28.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, up 97.1% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the expected net profit is between 4.6 to 5.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 76.7% to 105.8% [1][2]. Product and Market Expansion - The "Wujie" brand's revenue reached 1.49 billion yuan in 2023, a 57.1% increase, and is projected to grow significantly in 2024 [3]. - The company has expanded its global sales network, adding 194 new sales points in 2023, bringing the total to 1,334 [3]. Sales and Export Growth - The sales of large-displacement motorcycles (>250cc) reached 7.5 million units in 2023 and are expected to grow to 10.8 million units in 2024, with significant contributions from exports [4]. - The company reported a 39% increase in exports of small-displacement motorcycles (≤250cc) in early 2024, driven by strong demand in Latin America [2]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 16.82 billion yuan, 20.16 billion yuan, and 23.71 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.15 billion yuan, 1.85 billion yuan, and 2.23 billion yuan [5][6]. - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.56 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.09 yuan by 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 14, and 11 [5][6].

容百科技（688005.SH）2024 年年报点评 龙头优势继续巩固，新品产业化顺利 2025 年 04 月 14 日 ➢ 事件。2025 年 4 月 9 日公司发布 2024 年年报，营业收入为 150.88 亿元， 同比下降 33.41%；归母净利润为 2.96 亿元，同比下降 49.06%；扣非后净利润 为 2.44 亿元，同比下降 52.64%。 ➢ 经营稳健，业绩强韧。出货量方面，2024 年公司正极材料销量达 12.30 万 吨，同比+21.82%，全球三元市占率超过 12%，同比提升了 2 个百分点，连续 四年保持全球第一。盈利方面，2024 年公司三元正极净利润 5.04 亿元，对应单 吨净利达 0.42 万元。业绩表现强韧主要得益于 1）产品与客户精准卡位，海外客 户累计销量首次超过 2 万吨，9 系以上超高镍产品出货达到 2.7 万吨，占比提升 至 23%；2）强化供应链管理，积极应对碳酸锂价格下行；3）内部精细化管理降 本。展望：公司不断丰富产品矩阵满足客户需要，2024 年在前驱体、锰铁锂、 钠电等战略性业务投入约 1.75 亿元。与此同时公司坚定实施全球化战略，韩国 工厂进入收获期。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [7][11]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 550 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 94 million yuan, up 11.09% year-on-year [4]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 185 million yuan, a 25.42% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 40 million yuan, growing 24.52% year-on-year [4]. - The company has a strong market position with 4,345 serviced renewable energy stations, an increase of 755 stations from the beginning of the year, showcasing its leading market share in power forecasting services [5]. - The introduction of the "Four Available" management requirements for distributed power stations is expected to drive market demand, providing significant new business opportunities for the company [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 726 million yuan in 2025, 905 million yuan in 2026, and 1,114 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 32.1%, 24.6%, and 23.2% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 123 million yuan in 2025, 167 million yuan in 2026, and 228 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 31.2%, 35.7%, and 36.7% respectively [12]. Business Development - The company is expanding its product offerings in power trading, virtual power plants, and energy management systems, leveraging AI technologies to enhance its service capabilities [8][10]. - The company has developed a new AI model, "Kuangming," which significantly improves the accuracy and efficiency of power forecasting and is being applied across multiple product lines [10]. Market Opportunities - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing reforms in the electricity market, which are expected to create long-term growth opportunities in its core and innovative business segments [11].

[Table_Author] 分析师：吕伟 分析师：郭新宇 邮箱：lvwei_yj@mszq.com 邮箱：guoxinyu@mszq.com 国能日新（301162.SZ）2024 年年报点评 分布式业务打开成长空间，AI 赋能加速创新业务拓展 2025 年 04 月 14 日 执业证号：S0100521110003 执业证号：S0100518120001 ➢ 事件概述：2025 年 4 月 11 日公司发布 2024 年年报，报告期内公司实现 营业收入 5.5 亿元，同比增长 20.50%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 0.94 亿元，同比增长 11.09%。 ➢ 2024Q4 收入、利润均强势增长，功率预测等核心业务优势稳固。收入端， 2024Q4 公司收入达到 1.85 亿元，同比增长 25.42%；归母净利润 0.40 亿元， 同比增长 24.52%；扣非归母净利润 0.39 亿元，同比增长 38.11%。 分业务看，2024 年全年新能源发电功率预测产品收入 3.1 亿元，同比增长 15.55%；新能源并网智能控制产品收入 1.2 亿元，同比增长 28.01%。 公司在市场覆盖、技术实力和创新能 ...

债市跟踪周报 20250414 利率债基久期先升后降 2025 年 04 月 14 日 ➢ 理财规模延续回暖 截至 4 月 13 日，普益标准口径下，本周理财存续规模为 30.4 万亿元，环 周上升 774 亿元。其中，固收类和现金管理类理财存续规模上升幅度较大。 从发行进度来看：截至 4 月 11 日，今年置换债已发行和已披露计划发行规 模合计为 15437 亿元，累计发行进度为 77.2%。截至 4 月 11 日，今年新增一 般债已发行 2861 亿元，累计发行进度为 35.8%；新增专项债已发行 10183 亿 元, 累计发行进度为 23.1%。 截至 4 月 13 日，本周新发理财产品的业绩比较基准多数回升，每日开放型 产品的业绩比较基准为 2.08%，环周上升 0.28pct；6 个月-1 年（含）产品的业 绩比较基准为 2.52%，环周上升 0.05pct。本周理财产品平均年化收益率有所下 降，现金管理类理财平均年化收益率为 1.85%，较上周下降 0pct；固收类平均 年化收益率为 3.13%，较上周上升 0.01pct。本周理财产品破净率小幅上升，理 财产品单位净值破净率 0.89%，较上周上 ...

Export Data Overview - In March 2025, China's exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 3.5% and reversing the previous month's decline of -3%[3] - Imports in March 2025 decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations and contrasting with a 1.5% increase in the previous month[3] Factors Influencing Export Performance - The primary driver for the March export surge was seasonal effects, as early Spring and a low base from the previous year contributed to higher year-on-year figures[3] - "Rush exports" occurred ahead of tariff increases, with significant contributions from ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa, collectively boosting exports by 4.8 percentage points[3] Future Export Trends - Export growth is expected to decline in Q2 2025, potentially falling between -5% to -10% year-on-year due to the impact of tariff escalations and weakening external demand[4] - Recent logistics data indicates a significant drop in port cargo volumes, suggesting a slowdown in export activity[4] Potential Upside Factors - Signals of tariff exemptions may provide some relief, with an estimated $100 billion worth of products eligible for exemptions, potentially easing export pressures[5] - Continued "rush exports" and shifts in trade patterns towards ASEAN and other regions may sustain some export momentum[5] Risks and Policy Responses - The government is likely to implement policies aimed at mitigating employment risks due to external shocks, focusing on high-tech manufacturing sectors with significant export exposure to the U.S.[7] - If tariffs are enforced as planned, the direct impact on foreign trade revenues could exceed 1.2 trillion yuan for affected industries[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on domestic substitution opportunities and quality overseas targets [3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing focus on domestic substitution opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, including scientific instruments, medical devices, blood products, medical consumables, and pharmaceutical packaging. It also highlights the recovery of domestic pharmaceutical consumption driven by policies related to traditional Chinese medicine and medical services [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. CXO - The CXO sector is expected to see valuation recovery due to supportive policies for innovative drug development and a decrease in geopolitical risks [7]. 2. Innovative Drugs - The report notes a decline in the A-share chemical preparation sector by 7% and a 3.74% drop in other biological products, indicating market volatility [10]. 3. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report suggests focusing on companies like China Resources Sanjiu, Yunnan Baiyao, and Tongrentang, as the market anticipates further consumption stimulus policies [18]. 4. Blood Products - The report highlights the strong pricing power of scarce resource manufacturers and the growing demand for immunoglobulin, suggesting a positive outlook for companies like Tian Tan Biology and Shanghai RAAS [21]. 5. Vaccines - The vaccine sector is under pressure, but there is potential for growth in specific areas such as HPV vaccines and other high-value products [23]. 6. Upstream Supply Chain - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong brand effects and overseas growth potential in the chemical and biological reagent sectors [26]. 7. IVD - The report indicates that the IVD industry is undergoing significant changes due to procurement policies, which may accelerate domestic substitution and increase market penetration [29]. 8. Medical Devices - The report suggests that the CGM market is expected to grow, particularly with the FDA approval of new products, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Sanofi [34]. 9. Medical Services - The report recommends focusing on eye and dental service companies, as well as traditional Chinese medicine services, in light of new consumption policies [39]. 10. Pharmacies - The report indicates that the pharmacy sector is stabilizing, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong supply chain capabilities [43]. 11. Raw Materials - The report notes that many raw material prices are stabilizing, suggesting potential investment opportunities in antibiotic intermediates and hormone raw materials [46]. 12. Innovative Instruments - The report emphasizes the potential for AI applications in the medical device sector, particularly in areas like surgical navigation and pathology screening [51]. 13. Low-value Consumables - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the low-value consumables sector, particularly for companies that can adapt to changing market conditions [60].