债 券 周 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 27 日 主题风格活跃，高价券领涨 ——转债周度跟踪 20251226 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 ⚫ 本周中证 2000 领涨，微盘股延续修复，转债风格适配、明显跟涨，商业航天概念持续火 热带动军工板块表现亮眼，金融、消费等临期大盘转债依旧承压，加之强赎风险阶段性回 落，偏股转债受益于平价和估值双击，涨幅明显好于大盘偏债转债。在经历强势修复后， 转债重回前期高点，主要表现为百元溢价率、转债价格中位数等均距离前期高点"一步之 遥"。但与 11 月上旬的修复行情相比，本轮表现较强的主要是偏股型高价转债，而 11 月 上旬则是偏债型低价转债较强，因此本轮强势修复后转债弹性要强于前期，虽然回撤会同 步放大， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, highlighting the potential for growth in leading companies with low valuations and high dividends [6][7]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector has underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with the sector index rising by 0.5% while the broader index increased by 1.9% [6][8]. - Key companies such as Feike Electric, Guangfeng Technology, and Sanhua Intelligent Control have shown significant gains, while companies like Beilong and Hisense Vision have faced declines [6][10]. - Sanhua Intelligent Control is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.874 to 4.649 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25-50% [6][13]. - Haier Smart Home has sold a 49% stake in its Indian subsidiary, maintaining control while partnering with local investors to enhance market presence [6][14]. Summary by Sections Air Conditioning - Online retail volume for air conditioners in November 2025 was 2.09 million units, down 26.2% year-on-year, while offline sales dropped by 44.8% to 351,000 units [4][35]. - The average online retail price increased by 0.2% to 3,131 yuan per unit, while the offline average price decreased by 13.0% to 4,205 yuan [4][35]. Kitchen Appliances - For range hoods, online sales fell by 15.2% to 502,000 units, and offline sales decreased by 34% to 132,000 units [5][37]. - The average online price for range hoods rose by 17.4% to 2,011 yuan, while the offline price dropped by 7.7% to 4,296 yuan [5][37]. - Dishwashers saw online sales decline by 29.3% to 170,000 units and offline sales drop by 40.2% to 28,000 units [5][41]. - The average online price for dishwashers increased by 2.7% to 4,590 yuan, while the offline price decreased by 1.1% to 8,241 yuan [5][41]. Industry Dynamics - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the continued effects of the trade-in policy and the growing demand in emerging markets [7]. - Companies are diversifying into new technology sectors, including robotics and data center temperature control, to drive growth [7]. - The report highlights the resilience of leading companies in the face of international trade fluctuations and their strategic positioning in global markets [7].

策 略 研 究 2025 年 12 月 27 日 春季主题行情已赢在当下 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/22-25/12/27) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 图表目录 | 图 1：短期中证 A500ETF 份额数快速上行，主要来自于规模最大产品的贡献 3 | | --- | | 图 2：电子和电力设备在中证 A500 中的权重较高，中证 A500ETF 规模扩张，构 | | 成短期行业反弹的基础 3 | | 图 3：量化情绪指标跟踪 5 | | 图 4：重点 ETF 跟踪 7 | 一 周 回 顾 展 望 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一、短期 A 股连续上涨， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve initiated the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting, marking the end of the QE era rather than a restart[1] - The RMP is set at a scale of $40 billion for the first month, expected to remain high until April 2026, then potentially slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month[2] - RMP is a technical operation aimed at managing liquidity without altering the Fed's policy stance, primarily focusing on interest rate policy[3] Group 2: Differences Between RMP and QE - RMP and QE both lead to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet but differ fundamentally in their nature; RMP is for liquidity management while QE is for yield curve management[4] - RMP is market-neutral, whereas QE is market-non-neutral, affecting asset prices differently[5] - The Fed is unlikely to restart QE until interest rates approach zero, as lowering rates is a more effective demand stimulus before reaching that threshold[6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - As of December 24, 2025, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, with net issuance of U.S. debt declining[7] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 is projected at $1.77 trillion, lower than the $1.95 trillion from the previous year[8] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was 4.3% (annualized), exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, driven by strong consumer spending[9]

宏 观 研 究 工企效益数据点评 2025 年 12 月 27 日 利润走弱的两大缘由 ——工业企业效益数据点评（25.11） 事件：12 月 27 日统计局公布 11 月工企效益数据，11 月工企营收累计同比 1.6%、前值 1.8%；利润累计同比 0.1%、前值 1.9%。11 月末，产成品存货同比 4.6%、前值 3.7%。 ⚫ 核心观点：利润继续走低，源自其他损益回落的短期拖累及成本压力等中期约束。 总体：11 月利润同比继续走低，主因其他损益对利润同比的拉动明显回落。11 月工业企 业利润当月同比回落 4.6 个百分点至-13.4%。从影响因素看，利润率对利润增速的拉动明 显回落，背后更多是其他损益项（投资收益、营业税金及附加等杂项支出）等短期指标对 利润同比的拉动较前月下行 9.4 个百分点至-5.1%。成本率、费用率对利润同比的拉动仍 在负数区间，分别较前月回升 0.8、1.2 个百分点至-2.4%、-5.6%。 行业：个别行业的利润走弱对本月利润的拖累大，背后或也与其他收益等短期指标走低有 关。11 月，酒和饮料利润增速大幅回落(-93.4pct 至-90.4%)，单个行业利润拖累整体回 落 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the AI computing industry in 2026, particularly focusing on Huawei's advancements and opportunities in the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the domestic AI computing industry, with Huawei expected to unveil a series of new products and technologies that the market has not yet fully reacted to [3][4]. - Huawei's Ascend 950 series, including the Ascend 950PR and Ascend 950DT chips, is set to significantly enhance AI computing capabilities, with a focus on cost-effective solutions and high performance [4][9]. - The report highlights the importance of storage and connectivity in the evolution of AI computing chips, with Huawei making substantial innovations in these areas [4][9]. - The IPOs of Zhiyuan and MiniMax mark significant milestones in the AI model startup landscape, representing different business models in the sector [3][37]. Summary by Sections Huawei's Computing Innovations - Huawei is positioned as a comprehensive ICT manufacturer, integrating various components from semiconductor supply chains to software ecosystems, which is expected to lead to system-level advancements [4][7]. - The Ascend 950 series is designed to support industry-standard low-precision data formats, significantly improving training efficiency and inference throughput [7][9]. - The upcoming Atlas 950 supernode, based on the Ascend 950DT chip, is expected to achieve unprecedented performance metrics, including an FP8 computing power of 8 EFLOPS and an interconnect bandwidth of 16 PB/s [22][23]. Zhiyuan and MiniMax Comparison - Zhiyuan, backed by Tsinghua University, focuses on B2B localized deployment, achieving rapid revenue growth with a projected revenue of 3.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 150.9% [39][44]. - MiniMax, established in 2021, emphasizes efficient model architecture and rapid commercialization of consumer products, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas markets [50][51]. - Both companies represent distinct paths in the AI model startup ecosystem, with Zhiyuan focusing on enterprise solutions and MiniMax targeting consumer applications [63].

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 12 月 27 日 华 为 2026 会 反 转 吗 ？ 智 谱 和 minimax 对比研究！ 看好 ——计算机行业周报 20251222-20251226 相关研究 《字节豆包 1.8 重磅发布！壁仞提交港股 招股书！——计算机行业周报 20251215- 20251219》 2025/12/20 《 OpenAI GPT 5.2 发布！重磅中航信深 度发布！——计算机行业周报 20251208- 20251212》 2025/12/13 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 崔航 A0230524080005 cuihang@swsresearch.com 徐平平 A0230525080002 xupp@swsresearch.com 曹峥 A0230525040002 caozheng@swsresearch.com 陈晴华 A02 ...

2025 年 12 月 27 日 超跌反弹, 申报加速 公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.22-2025.12.26） 相关研究 《中核水电 REIT 认购倍数续创新高 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2025.12.15-2025.12.19)》 2025/12/20 《板块分化调整, 中核水电 REIT 即 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 将间价 (2025.12.8-2025.12.12)》 2025/12/13 《新版行业清单出炉,基础设施 -公募 REITs 周 REITs 再扩围! - 度跟踪 (2025.12.1-2025.12.5)》 2025/12/06 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 事件扰 ...

2025 年 12 月 27 日 超跌反弹，申报加速 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.22-2025.12.26） 相关研究 《中核水电 REIT 认购倍数续创新高 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.12.15-2025.12.19）》 2025/12/20 《板块分化调整，中核水电 REIT 即 将询价——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.12.8-2025.12.12）》 2025/12/13 《新版行业清单出炉，基础设施 REITs 再扩围！——公募 REITs 周 度跟踪（2025.12.1-2025.12.5）》 2025/12/06 债 券 周 评 ⚫ 事件扰动因素减弱。本周一、周二延续上周跌势，自上周一至本周二累计跌幅 4.35%；周 三、周四市场情绪反转，分别强势反弹 2.33%、0.99%，推动指数回升至上周二、三水平， 但未完全回补前期跌幅；周五则再度小幅回落。分板块来看，本轮事件冲击下的行情演绎 中，交通、能源、环保水务三类经营权 REITs 前期跌幅居前，修复后整体仍录得下跌，分 别-4.03%、-2.81%、-2.91%；而仓储、数据中心、产业园前期调 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the overseas education sector, particularly highlighting New Oriental as a key player [10]. Core Insights - The overseas education sector is experiencing improved operational efficiency and accelerated profit margin expansion, with New Oriental expected to report a revenue of $1.165 billion for Q2 FY26, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [5][10]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in non-GAAP net profit for New Oriental, projected at $63 million, which is a 77.8% increase year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.4%, expanding by 2 percentage points [5][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Education - **Market Review**: The education index rose by 2.8% in the week of December 19-25, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points, with a year-to-date increase of 13.1% [4]. - **Company Update**: New Oriental's revenue is expected to reach $1.165 billion, with the education business (including cultural tourism) contributing $957 million, a growth of 11% year-on-year [5][10]. - **Study Abroad Business**: The revenue from study abroad exam training and consulting is projected to decline by 3% to $242 million, reflecting a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from the previous year [2][5]. - **New Business Growth**: New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, are expected to grow by 21% to $364 million, driven by differentiated offerings for primary and secondary education [3][6]. - **Operating Profit Margin Improvement**: Despite a slowdown in high-margin study abroad business, the increase in competency business margins is expected to offset this. The non-GAAP operating profit margin is projected to expand by approximately 2 percentage points to 4.7% [6][10]. 2. Overseas Pharmaceuticals - **Market Review**: The Hang Seng Healthcare Index saw a slight increase of 0.02%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.24 percentage points [12]. - **Key Events**: Notable transactions include Sanofi's $2.2 billion acquisition of vaccine company Dynavax, which has a marketed hepatitis B vaccine and a promising shingles vaccine candidate [14]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on innovative drug companies with active business development opportunities and clinical progress in key pipelines, including companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics [15]. 3. Overseas Social Services - **Ctrip's Q3 Performance**: Ctrip reported a 16% year-on-year revenue increase to $18.4 billion, with strong performance across various business segments, particularly in international OTA platforms [17]. - **Tongcheng Travel's Q3 Performance**: Tongcheng Travel's revenue grew by 10% to $5.5 billion, with a notable increase in accommodation and core OTA business revenues [18]. - **Key Focus**: The report highlights potential growth in the outbound travel sector and the importance of hotel management services as additional growth drivers [19].