保险工 2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 联系人 目 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 证监会拟放松战略投资者限制 长期入市再迎政策支持 —《证券期货法律适用意见第 18 号》征求意见稿点评 证监会拟放松战略投资者限制,中长期资金入市再迎政策支持。1 月 30 日,证监会发布《关 于修改〈《上市公司证券发行注册管理办法》第九条、第十条、第十一条、第十三条、第四十 条、第五十七条、第六十条有关规定的适用意见 -- 证券期货法律适用意见第 18号）的决定 (征求意见稿)》(简称《征求意见稿》)，拟放松战略投资者限制。2025年 1 月 22 日，六部 门联合印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》(简称 《实施方案》)，提出要允许 公募基金、商业保险资金、基本养老保险基金、企（职）业年金基金、银行理财等作为战略 投资者参与上市公司向特定对象发行股 ...

2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究成功费 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tanqmeng@swsresearch.com 1 月制造业、建筑业 PMI 双降，天气叠加节日 因素投资景气度有所下降 ──申万宏源建筑周报（20260126-20260130） 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.44%，沪深 300 指 0 数+0.08%，相对收益为-1.52pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为国际 工程 (+0.50%)、专业工程 (+0.11%)、钢结构 (-0.69%)，对应行业 内三个公司：中材国际 (+6.04%)、罗曼股份 (+18.60%)、鸿路钢构 (+5.11%); 年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是专业工程 (+22.53%)、 钢结构 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, highlighting its strategic acquisition of PUMA and the potential for growth in the multi-brand global strategy [19]. Core Insights - Anta Sports has acquired a 29.06% stake in PUMA for €1.5 billion (approximately ¥12.28 billion), with a valuation of about 15 times PE, which is a significant step in advancing its multi-brand globalization strategy [15][25]. - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with the SW textile and apparel index outperforming the SW All A index by 0.9 percentage points during the week of January 26 to January 30, despite a 0.7% decline [4][5]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic demand throughout 2026, with a focus on high-performance outdoor apparel and discount retail sectors as potential growth areas [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index down 0.7%, while the SW All A index fell by 1.6% [5]. - In December, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached ¥501.202 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [30]. Key Developments - Anta's acquisition of PUMA is expected to enhance its global presence and market share, particularly in China, where PUMA's revenue currently accounts for only 7% of its global sales [16]. - The report highlights the positive outlook for the women's apparel sector, with companies like Ge Li Si and Xin He expected to turn profitable in 2025 [14]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in the price of Australian wool, with the dollar-denominated index reaching 1177 cents per kilogram, a year-on-year increase of 58.6% [45]. - The apparel sector is expected to benefit from favorable conditions during the upcoming Spring Festival, with improved sales anticipated in February [13]. Company-Specific Insights - Anta's acquisition is fully funded by its own resources, ensuring that its dividend policy remains unaffected [15]. - The report projects Anta's net profit for 2025 to be ¥132 billion, with a steady growth trajectory anticipated through 2027 [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [3][11]. Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is proposing to relax restrictions on strategic investors, which is expected to support the entry of long-term capital into the market [1]. - The proposed changes will allow various institutional investors, including public funds, commercial insurance funds, and pension funds, to participate as strategic investors in non-public offerings of listed companies [2]. - The report highlights that participation in private placements by long-term capital investors is likely to yield excess returns due to diverse sources of income, including discount gains and dividend income [3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The CSRC's draft proposal aims to expand the types of strategic investors and clarify their classification, including social security funds and commercial insurance funds [2]. - A minimum shareholding requirement of 5% for strategic investors is established, allowing them to participate in corporate governance [2]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes that the alignment of long-term capital with private placements is expected to enhance investment returns, with the potential for smoother profit fluctuations through accounting measures [3]. - The report recommends several companies in the insurance sector, including China Life, New China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, China Property Insurance, and China Re, while suggesting to pay attention to China Taiping and ZhongAn Online [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation table for key insurance companies, detailing metrics such as market capitalization, P/E ratios, and dividend yields, indicating the financial health and investment potential of these firms [6].

Investment Rating - The report rates the railway and highway industry as "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Insights - The freight volume in China is projected to reach 58.7 billion tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The growth rates for railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation freight volumes are expected to be 2%, 3.4%, 3.2%, and 13.3% respectively [4]. - Fixed asset investment in transportation is expected to remain high, with an estimated completion of over 3.6 trillion yuan in 2025. The inter-regional personnel flow is projected to reach 66.86 billion person-times, growing by 3.5% year-on-year [4]. - Railway passenger and freight volumes are expected to maintain steady growth, with passenger volume reaching 4.601 billion people and freight volume reaching 5.277 billion tons in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 2% respectively [4]. - The highway sector is anticipated to improve in 2026 after a slowdown in growth in 2025, with freight volume growth of 3.4% in 2025 [4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on high dividend stocks and potential market value management catalysts in the highway sector, with specific companies such as Anhui Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Zhejiang Expressway being highlighted [4]. Summary by Sections Railway Transportation - In 2025, the total passenger turnover is expected to reach 1,639.556 billion person-kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The total freight turnover is projected to be 3,686.909 billion ton-kilometers, growing by 2.8% [4]. - The investment in railway fixed assets is expected to reach 901.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [4]. Highway Transportation - The growth rate of highway freight volume is expected to slow down in 2025 but is projected to improve in 2026 due to stable demand in highway logistics [4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the highway sector has two main investment themes for the year: traditional high dividend investments and potential market value management catalysts. Recommended companies include Wanhua Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and others [4].

房地产 2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，三条红线政策逐步退场 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/24-2026/1/30） 本期投资提示： 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房成交环比回升、二手房环比下降，新房成交推盘比回落。上周 (1.24-1.30)34 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the construction industry, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2026 as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the construction PMI stands at 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, reflecting a decline in investment sentiment due to weather and holiday factors [3][11]. - The report highlights the government's initiative to foster new growth points in service consumption, encouraging local governments to utilize financial resources and industry funds to enhance infrastructure in tourism and residential areas [11]. - The report identifies key companies with significant profit growth expectations, such as Zhite New Materials, which anticipates a net profit of 160-200 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.11%-171.39% [13][14]. Industry Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index decreased by 1.44%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.08% [3][4]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week included International Engineering (+0.50%) and Professional Engineering (+0.11%), while the Steel Structure sub-industry saw a decline of 0.69% [5][9]. - Year-to-date, the Professional Engineering sub-industry has increased by 22.53%, and the Steel Structure sub-industry by 21.12%, with notable companies like Zhite New Materials showing a staggering increase of 234.08% [5][9]. Key Company Developments - China Aluminum International signed 4,891 contracts in 2025, with a total contract value of 46.836 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 51.94% [13][16]. - Other companies such as Shanghai Construction and Zhengzhong Design are projected to experience varying profit changes, with Shanghai Construction expecting a significant decline in net profit for 2025 [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new contract signings and order volumes for key companies to gauge future performance [19].

行 业 及 产 业 机械设备/ 专用设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 李蕾 A0230519080008 lilei@swsresearch.com 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 刘宏达 A0230524020002 liuhd@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘建伟 A0230521100003 liujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 何佳霖 A0230523080002 hejl@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 银价飙升光伏承压，激光技术助力 降本 看好 ——光伏激光设备行业点评 行业点评 重点公司估值表 | 代码 | 简称 | 2026/1/30 | | 归母净利润（亿） | | | | PE | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市值（亿） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite current performance pressures [3][4]. Core Insights - Mainstream real estate companies are forecasting a decline or losses in 2025, but the report suggests that the most challenging period may be coming to an end. The report highlights significant declines in new construction and second-hand housing prices, indicating that the industry is nearing a bottom [3][4]. - The central government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy statements reflecting a more proactive approach to addressing risks and supporting the sector [3][4]. - While overall performance for mainstream real estate companies is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, the report anticipates a recovery in profitability for quality firms, driven by improved sales and operational performance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with Vanke A forecasting a loss of 82 billion RMB and China Overseas Development projecting a decline of 20% to 0% in net profit [4][6]. - The report categorizes companies based on expected profit growth rates, with some firms like Binjiang Group and New Town Holdings expected to see slight growth, while others like China Jinmao and Vanke A are projected to incur substantial losses [6][7]. Asset and Credit Impairment - The report details the cumulative asset and credit impairment losses for major firms, indicating that some companies have experienced significant write-downs, with New Town Holdings at 27% and Goldfield Group at 25% of their inventory [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for major real estate companies, showing that many are trading at historical lows in terms of price-to-book ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][8]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is noted, with some companies like Poly Development and Binjiang Group showing varying earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].

2026 年 02 月 01 日 旧制度的复兴 ——"沃什时代"的美联储 北京时间 1 月 30 日，特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席，引发市场 热议"沃什时代"的美联储政策。为什么是沃什、他将如何重塑美联储？ 一、热点思考：旧制度的复兴——"沃什时代"的美联储 （一）"沃什冲击"：特朗普选择沃什，美债收益率曲线"陡峭化"，美元走强 本次美联储主席提名历时较长，反映特朗普政府在忠诚度、降息立场、政策声誉、改革议程和 华尔街影响力等多方面的艰难权衡。2025 年 8 月-2026 年 1 月底，最可能的"影子主席"在五 位候选人中不断切换，或主要与面试的先后次序及媒体报道相关，并不代表真实概率。 2017 年提名时期，市场对领跑候选人的预期也呈现较大波动，但波折程度远不及此轮。2017 年 11 月特朗普提名鲍威尔之前，沃什提名预期一度领跑，直至 10 月初才被鲍威尔反超。反观 此轮，哈赛特概率一度超过 80%，远超上一轮水平，且沃什概率在最后一个月还曾被里德反超。 市场对不同候选人的"定价"显著不同。1）11 月哈赛特概率飙升时，市场交易凸显对"独立 性"的担忧；2）1 月末里 ...