Group 1: Market Sentiment Model Insights - The market sentiment score has rapidly increased to 3.9 as of November 14, up from 3 the previous week, indicating a further recovery in market sentiment and a bullish outlook [2][8] - The price-volume consistency indicator has stabilized and rebounded, showing a phase of sentiment recovery after a previous decline, with increased trading activity and a positive correlation between price elasticity and attention to stocks [11][12] - The overall trading volume for the entire A-share market increased by 1.56% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 20,438.27 billion yuan, indicating sustained market activity [15] Group 2: Industry Trends and Performance - The short-term trend scores for industries such as beauty care, pharmaceuticals, banking, food and beverage, and textiles have shown upward momentum, with steel, electric equipment, construction decoration, environmental protection, and coal being the strongest short-term performers [40][41] - The industry trend consistency has significantly improved, breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a stronger consensus on industry outlooks and enhancing the beta effect of sector indices [25][28] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reflecting an increase in market leverage sentiment and a more active trading atmosphere in the financing market [29][31] Group 3: Industry Crowding and Investment Opportunities - The correlation coefficient between industry crowding and weekly price changes is 0.60, indicating a significant positive relationship, with high crowding in sectors like basic chemicals, agriculture, and forestry, which have seen high price increases [44][46] - Sectors with high crowding but low price increases, such as electric equipment and environmental protection, may have potential for catch-up gains if fundamental catalysts arise [44] - Low crowding sectors like communication, electronics, and computers, which have seen lower price increases, present opportunities for gradual long-term investment as risk appetite improves [44][46]

2025 年 11 月 16 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20251108-20251114） 本期投资提示： 证 证券分析师 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 行 业 比 较 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST）PE 为 21.5 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 80%和 41%分位； ✓ ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Consumer Services Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing certainty and focusing on marginal improvements in the Hong Kong consumer services sector for 2026 [2][8] - Macau gaming revenue shows resilience, with October gross gaming revenue increasing by 16% year-on-year, reaching the highest monthly record post-pandemic, driven by relaxed visa policies and events like concerts [2][8] - The report highlights the growth in VIP gaming revenue, which increased by 29% year-on-year, recovering to 54% of 2019 levels, while mass gaming revenue grew by 7% year-on-year, up 15% compared to 2019 [2][8] - The current EV/EBITDA valuation for the industry is at a low of 9 times, indicating potential for investment [2][8] - Recommended stocks include Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and Sands China [2][8] Group 2: Online Travel Sector - Online travel companies are experiencing revenue growth that outpaces the overall travel market, benefiting from increased online penetration and a focus on leisure travel rather than business travel [2][8] - Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel have not been adversely affected by new competitors, with improved marketing efficiency and higher growth rates in outbound and pure overseas travel segments [2][8] Group 3: Restaurant Sector - The restaurant sector faces fundamental pressures but continues to trend towards increased chain penetration, with significant elasticity expected if consumer sentiment improves [3][9] - The report recommends focusing on marginal changes in companies, highlighting ready-to-drink tea brands like Gu Ming and Mi Xue, as well as franchise models in lower-tier markets like Guo Quan [3][9] - Notable companies with strong shareholder returns include Yum China, which achieved record net openings for KFC and Pizza Hut in the third quarter [3][9] Group 4: Higher Education Sector - The report discusses the maturation of conditions for profit-oriented classification management in higher education, with expectations for a turnaround in the fortunes of higher education companies [4][13] - Recent policy developments in Guangdong province regarding private higher education classification management are anticipated to be followed by other provinces, enhancing the operational asset rights of listed private higher education companies [4][14] - The report predicts that after five years of quality improvement investments, the operational efficiency of higher education companies is expected to gradually recover, with a focus on quality enhancement as a regulatory goal [5][15] Group 5: Dividend Returns in Higher Education - The report anticipates a resumption of expansion for higher education companies once quality standards are met, leading to revenue growth and valuation increases [6][16] - With a current payout ratio of 30% and low valuation multiples, some higher education companies are expected to offer dividend yields exceeding 9%, providing a good margin of safety [6][16] - Recommended stocks include Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, New Higher Education Group, and others [6][16] Group 6: Investment Analysis in Higher Education - The report suggests focusing on Hong Kong higher education companies, as the potential for profit-oriented classification is expected to revive expansion dynamics [20][31] - The report also highlights the positive performance of autumn enrollment data for K12 education companies, indicating strong brand appeal among students [20][31] - Recommendations include New Oriental, TAL Education, and others, with a particular emphasis on vocational education companies like China Oriental Education [20][31]

行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 《聚焦体验与效率，即时零售和 AI 成双十 一新引擎——2025 年双十一大促跟踪点 评》 2025/10/26 《超长大促简化玩法，淘宝闪购首次参与 双十一——商贸零售行业周报（10.6- 10.10）》 2025/10/12 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 A0230525070005 lixl2@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 16 日 双 11 迎收官：AI 全域赋能，即时 零售高速增长 看好 ——商贸零售行业周报（11.10-11.14） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 一周主要回顾与展望：在 2025 年 11 月 10 日至 2025 年 11 月 14 日期间，商贸零售指 数增长 4.06%，相较于沪深 300 上涨 5.14pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 3 位。社会服 务指数增长 2.28%，相较于沪深 30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili-W (09626) [2] Core Insights - Bilibili achieved a revenue of 7.69 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5%, which met expectations; the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 790 million yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 22%, with a profit margin of 10.2%, continuing to improve quarter-on-quarter [5] - User engagement metrics reached historical highs, with MAU growing 8% year-on-year to 376 million and DAU increasing 9% to 117 million, indicating strong user stickiness [8] - Advertising revenue accelerated with a year-on-year growth rate of 23%, while game revenue declined by 17%, aligning with expectations due to a high base effect [8] - The company continues to optimize operational efficiency, with a gross margin of 36.7% and a 6% year-on-year reduction in absolute values of operating expenses [8] - The report highlights two upward potential drivers: community monetization through gaming and AI applications, which could enhance content ecosystem and advertising efficiency [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Bilibili are as follows: - 2023: 22.53 billion yuan - 2024: 26.83 billion yuan - 2025E: 30.21 billion yuan - 2026E: 33.30 billion yuan - 2027E: 36.16 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: -3.43 billion yuan - 2024: -0.02 billion yuan - 2025E: 2.57 billion yuan - 2026E: 3.02 billion yuan - 2027E: 4.05 billion yuan [7][9]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Yield Mostly Declines Slightly, Medium- and Long-Term Credit Spreads Widen Slightly - Weekly Tracking of the Credit Bond Market (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16)" [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang, Zhang Jinyuan [3] - Research support: Cao Xuan [3] - Report date: November 16, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The primary market shows a decline in the net supply of ordinary credit bonds and secondary and perpetual (two - tier) bank bonds compared to the previous period [4]. - In the secondary market, yields mostly decline slightly, credit spreads generally widen, and 1 - year bonds perform well. The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4]. - The bond market enters a policy and data vacuum period. With the unimplemented public offering redemption fee new regulations and the possible continuation of residents' deposit transfer to the equity market, attention should be paid to the coupon value of credit bonds in the volatile market [4]. - In terms of credit strategies, the 1 - 3 - year period still has carry - trade space and cost - effectiveness, and investors can also moderately focus on 3 - 5 - year high - grade bonds, but should remain cautious about extending credit duration [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Primary Market 4.1.1 Ordinary Credit Bonds - Net financing decreases compared to the previous period, and subscription enthusiasm rises. The issuance of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds both decline slightly, and the net financing of urban investment bonds turns negative [4][7][11]. - The net financing of each enterprise nature is positive. The weighted issuance term is 2.98 years, a slight decrease from the previous period. The weighted issuance term of urban investment bonds increases, while that of industrial bonds decreases [16][17]. 4.1.2 Bank Two - Tier Bonds - Five small and medium - sized bank two - tier bonds are issued, and the net financing scale decreases compared to the previous period. The net financing of secondary capital bonds turns positive, while that of perpetual bonds decreases significantly [4][25][27]. 4.2 Secondary Market 4.2.1 Yields and Credit Spreads - Yields mostly decline slightly, and credit spreads, except for 1 - year bonds, generally widen. 3/5/7 - year weak - quality varieties see larger yield declines, while 10 - year AAA - grade ordinary credit bonds have a relatively large upward amplitude in yields [4][35][37]. - In terms of credit spreads, 1 - year bonds, except for medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds, all narrow, with low - grade bonds performing better. 5/7/10 - year medium - and high - grade bonds mostly widen, but the 5 - year AA - grade medium - term note performs best [4]. 4.2.2 Turnover Rate - The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4] 4.3存量债分布 - Current yields are mostly distributed within 2.2% [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [29]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw a weekly increase of 3.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.2% during the same period [4][6]. - The overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at 30.9 times earnings, ranking it 10th among 31 primary sectors [6][12]. - Key segments within the pharmaceutical industry showed varied performance, with raw materials up by 5.1%, chemical preparations by 4.4%, and traditional Chinese medicine by 4.1% [6][4]. Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index ranked 5th among 31 sub-industries, with notable increases in various segments such as biopharmaceuticals (+2.7%), medical services (+1.8%), and medical devices (+1.8%) [4][6]. - The report highlights the performance of specific companies, recommending a focus on innovative drug sectors and companies with strong earnings growth potential [3][21]. Recent Developments - Roche's BTK inhibitor Fenebrutinib achieved significant milestones in clinical trials for treating relapsing multiple sclerosis, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related companies [3][13]. - The Chinese government has updated regulations on the export of controlled chemicals, impacting companies involved in this sector [3][14]. - The report notes an expected peak in influenza activity in China during late December and early January, prompting recommendations to monitor related vaccine and treatment companies [3][15][16]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and beyond [21]. - Companies highlighted include Mindray Medical, Hengrui Medicine, and WuXi AppTec, with varying market capitalizations and growth forecasts [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drug sectors and companies with improving performance in medical devices and upstream segments, listing specific companies to watch [3][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring flu vaccine manufacturers and antiviral drug producers as flu activity rises [3][15].

Investment Themes - Theme 1: Technology consumption expands commercialization paths, AI and instant retail explore incremental growth. Continuous investment in instant retail and AI tracks, rational competition in instant retail, and enhanced deployment capabilities of AI models are expected to drive long-term growth. Recommended companies include Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, and JD [3] - Theme 2: New consumption structure remains prosperous, and Chinese brands globalize. Short-term focus on tax burden recovery and Spring Festival catalysts, while long-term emphasis on product design and branding capabilities. Recommended companies include Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, Caibai, and others [4] - Theme 3: Trade stability improves, and supply-side reforms strengthen domestic consumption. The relative easing of tariffs between China and the US, along with strong growth in emerging markets, supports high market prosperity. Recommended company is Xiaoshangpincheng [5] Macro Overview - Domestic demand is boosted, and cutting-edge technology drives new consumption scenarios. The online retail penetration rate continues to rise, with online retail sales growing by 9.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, reaching 11.3 trillion yuan [11][30] - The retail sales total increased by 4.5% year-on-year, reaching 36.6 trillion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, indicating stable growth [11] E-commerce Focus - E-commerce platforms are focusing on experience and efficiency, with AI and instant retail becoming new engines. The integration of AI into consumer applications and supply chain management is enhancing operational efficiency and user experience [14][42] - The overall industry flow is rising, but profit margins are under pressure due to increased investments in instant retail and AI [33] Consumer Trends - Emotional consumption is on the rise, with consumers willing to pay a premium for emotional satisfaction and psychological comfort. The emotional economy market in China is expected to exceed 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024 [19] - The Chinese toy market is expanding rapidly, with the total value expected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, growing at an annual rate of over 20% [19] AI and Technology Integration - AI is becoming a new competitive field for internet companies, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and applications. Alibaba's cloud revenue grew by 26% in Q2 2025, driven by AI-related products [42] - Major platforms are exploring commercial paths through differentiated AI applications and external ecosystem collaboration [43] Local Life and Instant Retail - The competition in instant retail is stabilizing, with platforms adjusting strategies to focus on efficiency rather than just volume. Daily order volumes for Meituan and Taobao are stabilizing at 70-80 million, while JD's remains around 10 million [51] - Instant retail has successfully cultivated consumer mindsets, leading to significant increases in monthly usage across platforms [55] International Expansion - Platforms are pursuing differentiated paths for international expansion, with Alibaba focusing on a light-asset model and Pinduoduo leveraging social dynamics for growth. JD is emphasizing localized operations in Europe, while Meituan replicates its local life model in new markets [61] - The export value of Yiwu continues to grow, with a total import and export value of 631.2 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1] Core Insights - Tencent Holdings reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion RMB, a 15% year-on-year increase, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2% [8] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 70.6 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, surpassing consensus expectations by 7% [8] - The growth in revenue was driven by strong performance in value-added services and advertising, particularly in overseas gaming [8] - The report highlights the significant contribution of new games and the sustained performance of established titles [8] - The company is expected to see continued growth in adjusted net profit, with projections of 260.2 billion RMB, 300.7 billion RMB, and 337.3 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent Holdings are as follows: - 2023: 609 billion RMB - 2024: 660.3 billion RMB - 2025E: 755.6 billion RMB - 2026E: 845.3 billion RMB - 2027E: 926.7 billion RMB [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 157.7 billion RMB - 2024: 222.7 billion RMB - 2025E: 260.2 billion RMB - 2026E: 300.7 billion RMB - 2027E: 337.3 billion RMB [7] - The report indicates a projected increase in earnings per share from 16.68 RMB in 2023 to 36.89 RMB in 2027 [7] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue breakdown for Q3 2025 includes: - Value-added services: 95.9 billion RMB - Online games: 63.6 billion RMB - Social networks: 32.2 billion RMB - Online advertising: 36.2 billion RMB - Financial technology and enterprise services: 58.2 billion RMB [9] - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue segments indicate strong performance across various business lines, particularly in online advertising and value-added services [9] Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating a target price of 791 HKD, representing a potential upside of 23.4% from the current price [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to continue bottoming out, with core cities stabilizing sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the rise of favorable policies for housing and the potential for commercial real estate assets to be revalued during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 201 million square meters last week, up 11.9% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities increasing by 12.6% and third and fourth-tier cities by 3.2% [4][5]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in November are down 39%, with first and second-tier cities down 37.8% and third and fourth-tier cities down 49.2% [5][7]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities was 89.538 million square meters, with a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week [22][23]. Policy and News Tracking - The State Council supports the issuance of REITs for private investment projects and the central bank aims to improve the foundational financial system for real estate [31][32]. - Local policies include the promotion of purchasing existing homes for affordable housing in Hangzhou and the launch of online applications for housing provident fund loans in Zhengzhou [31][34]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies reported their sales data for October 2025. China Jinmao achieved sales of 12 billion yuan, up 3%, while other companies like New Town Holdings and CIFI Holdings saw significant declines [38][39]. - China Resources Land announced a placement of 49.5 million shares, raising approximately 2.06 billion HKD, maintaining a 70.1% stake post-placement [38][39]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 2.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 1.08%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [43][47]. - Notable stock performances included China Wuyi and Huaxia Happiness, which saw significant gains, while companies like Asia Pacific Real Estate and Shenzhen Real Estate A experienced declines [47].