交通运输/ 物流 2026 年 02 月 24 日 春节错期影响一月量价，快递公司 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 - 行 业 及 产 业 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 加速全面复工 看好 ——快递 1 月数据点评 ⚫ 事件：快递公司公布一月月报。1 月，顺丰控股速运物流业务、供应链及国际业务合计 收入为 268.60 亿元，同比增长 2.22%。其中，速运业务营收达到 203.96 亿元，同比 下降 1.77%；业务量 13.86 亿票，同比增长 4.21%；单票收入达到 14.72 元/票。供应 链及国际业务营收 64.64 亿元，同比增长 17.2 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 市场数据： 2026 年 02 月 13 日 收盘价（元） 51.18 一年内最高/最低（元） 91.27/30.63 | 市净率 | 4.5 | | --- | --- | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.29 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 6,127 | | 上证指数/深证成指 4,082.07/14,100.19 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 11.34 | | 资产负债率% | 26.39 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 133/120 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -100% 0% 100% 200% 02-13 03-13 04-13 05-13 06-13 07-13 08-13 09-13 10-13 11-13 12-13 01-13 02-13 雷迪克 沪深300指数 (收益率) 证券分析师 王珂 A023052112000 ...

行 业 及 产 业 机械设备 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 春晚机器人大放异彩，运控、仿生 和操作的全面进步 看好 ——春晚机器人专题报告 - 证券分析师 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com ⚫ 2026 年央视春晚中，松延动力、魔法原子、宇树科技、银河通用四家企业登台演出。 通过舞蹈、小品、武术、微电影等节目展示了具身智能领域包括硬件本体、运控、群 控、灵巧操作、仿生等方面的前沿成果，呈现了我国机器人产业的技术实力。 ⚫ 2026 年春晚的机器人呈现了哪些前沿技术？1）高难度动作和零误差表演，背后是硬 件本体和运控技术全面升级：宇树科技 G1 机器人快速跑动变换队形，展示了弹射空 翻、连续翻桌、空中大回旋等高难度动作， 表明机器人实现了硬件和软件的全方位迭 代；2）高动态、高协同的全自主集群控制技术应用于集体舞蹈表演， ...

| 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | 上证指数 4082 -1.26 -1.37 0.41 | | 深证综指 2680 -1.05 0.16 1.16 | | 风格指数 (%) | | | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 11.32 | | 中盘指数 1.78 | 26.74 | | 小盘指数 | 19.55 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | 昨日 | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 摩托车及其 114 | 3.01 | -2.59 | 2.47 | | 影视院线 | 2.7 | 15.61 | 28.26 | | 海小 | 2.5 | 1.64 | 11.89 | | 综合II | 2.06 | 11.75 | 55.72 | | 航海装备Ⅱ | 1.87 | 3.91 | -0.69 | | 跌幅居卸 行业(%) | | 昨日 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 玻璃玻纤 | -4.69 | 30.4 | 65.53 | | 工业金属 | -3.82 | 0.19 | ୧୦ ବଟ | | 小尖属工 | -3.8 | 12.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [4][3]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $60-75 per barrel [4][5]. - The report highlights a potential spring boom in the chemical sector, driven by the success of domestic robotics showcased during the Spring Festival and favorable export conditions following tariff reductions [4][3]. - Investment opportunities are identified in various chains, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and overseas real estate, with specific companies recommended for investment [4][3]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with improved global economic conditions [5]. - The chemical industry is at a cyclical turning point, with downstream operations gradually resuming post-holiday, indicating a positive demand outlook for the year [4][3]. - The report notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January, while the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.3, indicating some volatility in manufacturing activity [7][4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on four key areas: textiles, agricultural chemicals, export chains, and beneficiaries of "anti-involution" policies [4][3]. - Specific companies to watch include those in the textile chain like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co., and in the agricultural chain like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, recommending companies such as Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials [4][3].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《为何现阶段我们仍看好航空？——航空 迎来黄金时代之周期持续性探讨》 2026/01/30 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 24 日 节中航空量价超预期，飞机供应链 挑战依旧艰巨 看好 ——航空迎来黄金时代之 26 年春运点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：油汇大幅波动、经济增速不及预期、航空安全事故风险。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ...

Group 1: IEEPA Tariff Legal Ruling - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA tariffs are illegal, primarily due to violations of the clear authorization principle and significant issues principle [9] - The tariffs affected include a 20% tariff on fentanyl from China, 25% on Canada and Mexico, and global equivalent tariffs [9] - The likelihood of full refunds for the tariffs is low, but partial refunds are more probable, depending on how lower courts handle the relief scope [9] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The overall sales volume in the food and beverage industry during the 2026 Spring Festival decreased by 10%-20%, slightly better than market expectations [10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showed significant sales growth, with Moutai's sales expected to increase by over 30% year-on-year [12] - The industry is entering a significant destocking phase, with first-tier brands' inventory levels notably lower than the previous year [12] Group 3: Health and Nutrition Industry Trends - The health and nutrition sector is experiencing structural growth, with the market size reaching over 100 billion yuan, significantly outpacing traditional food sectors [15] - The company West Health is transitioning from agency operations to a multi-brand strategy, establishing itself as a leader in the sports nutrition and functional food segments [11] - Revenue and profit for West Health are on a stable growth trajectory, with net profit increasing from 94 million yuan in 2023 to 149 million yuan in 2025 [13] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Developments - Huahong Semiconductor reported a revenue of $659.9 million for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with a gross margin of 13% [19] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a focus on enhancing its 12-inch wafer production capabilities through the acquisition of Huali Microelectronics [19] - The demand for embedded non-volatile memory products is increasing, driven by the rise in MCU and smart card needs [19] Group 5: Shipping and Transportation Sector - The VLCC freight rates surged by 24% to $146,385 per day during the Spring Festival, indicating strong demand in the oil shipping market [20] - The shipping market is expected to continue its upward trend, with tight capacity and strong demand forecasts for March [20] - The overall energy chain valuation is rising, with long-term cycles influencing high vessel utilization rates [20]

证券分析师 债 券 周 评 相关研究 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 联系人 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 23 日 关税再生波澜，以不变应万变 ——转债周度跟踪 20260213 ⚫ 1. 周观点及展望 ⚫ 节前最后一周转债市场情绪企稳，前期表现较弱的科技制造板块领涨，同时高价、小盘、 长久期转债依旧占优，但整体偏向弱修复，市场仍处宽幅震荡走势中。结构上重点关注两 点，一是百润等超低平价转债超预期下修，下修预期呈现扩散特征，60 元以下低平价转 债估值回升幅度较大，带动 120-130 元转债价格区间表现相对较强；二是权益"慢牛" 预期下，转债市场估值弹性主要由新券次新券和强赎转债决定，分别受科技股走势、强赎 率等因素影响，近期偏低的强赎率形成一定利好，边际上需密切关注上述因素变化。春节 假期期间港股市场整体表现一般，特朗普 ...

"关税压力测试"系列 2026 年 02 月 23 日 IEEPA 关税被判违法，后续如何演绎？ —"关税压力测试"系列之十三 2026 年 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院投票裁定特朗普政府基于 IEEPA 征收的关税非法，包括对等关 税和芬太尼关税。未来，特朗普政府或如何应对，关税格局将产生哪些变化？ 一、美国最高法关税判决：IEEPA 关税被推翻，全面退款概率较低 最高法判定 IEEPA 关税违法的核心理由是：违背清晰授权原则及重大问题原则。被判违法的关税 措施包括：1)芬太尼关税，中国为 20%（其中 10%已在 11 月暂免）、加拿大 25%、墨西哥 25%； 2)全球对等关税，包括 10%的基准关税及国别附加关税。 关税判决实际执行时间或被延后至 3 月下旬至 4 月初。关税判决生效时间为 2 月 20 日，但生效 不等于立即执行。实际执行时间取决于最高法院递送判决文件时间（一般为判决后第 32 天，即 3 月 24 日），特朗普政府可在 25 日内申请复议，复议难以改变结果，但或提供更长的缓冲期。 IEEPA 关税全部退还的概率较低，但局部退税的概率较高。1）退税程序在法律上已被剥离，单独 执行。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the bond market may be the diversion of funds from the bond market to the stock market. Attention should be paid to the carry and coupon value of credit bonds. The current bond market is a pessimistic expectation correction market dominated by allocation funds, and may enter a stage of narrowing spreads, but the overall space is still limited. The core contradiction order of the subsequent market is: asset allocation re - balance (stock market diversion) > monetary and fiscal coordination > expectation of price recovery [4]. - For credit bonds, under the support of loose liquidity, the carry strategy of short - and medium - term credit bonds has high certainty, and it is advisable to "increase positions on dips". Under the support of the demand of amortized bond funds, the carry can appropriately extend the duration to 3 - 5 - year medium - and high - grade general credit bonds. Considering that the current credit spreads are at relatively low historical levels, attention should be paid to the coupon value of some varieties and grade sinking. [4] - For secondary perpetual bonds, in the January market, the long - end spreads of secondary perpetual bonds were less compressed, and the catch - up was more obvious in this round of market. In the past two weeks, the allocation power of insurance institutions to secondary perpetual bonds has weakened and even turned into net selling. Considering the valuation and supply - demand changes, it is recommended to be cautious and wait for the opportunity of valuation recovery or supply increase. Also, attention should be paid to the potential participation opportunities of securities company bonds with increasing supply since the beginning of the year. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market - **General Credit Bonds**: The net supply of general credit bonds decreased this period. The issuance of general credit bonds was 139 billion yuan, and the net financing was 36.3 billion yuan, compared with 358.7 billion yuan and 256.5 billion yuan in the previous period respectively. Among them, the issuance of industrial bonds decreased to 76.8 billion yuan, and the net financing decreased to 19.1 billion yuan; the issuance of urban investment bonds decreased to 62.2 billion yuan, and the net financing decreased significantly to 17.2 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of general credit bonds was 2.65 years, a decrease from the previous period (2.91 years). The credit bond bid - upper limit - coupon rate decreased from 0.42% to 0.41%, and the credit bond subscription multiple increased from 2.67 to 2.85 [4][7][17][21]. - **Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds**: There was no issuance of bank secondary perpetual bonds this period, and the net financing scale decreased. The net financing of secondary capital bonds was - 200 million yuan, and the net financing of perpetual bonds was - 3 billion yuan. This was the sixth consecutive week of no issuance this year [4][25]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Yield and Credit Spread**: The yields of credit bonds generally declined, and most credit spreads narrowed. Among general credit bonds, except for the 1/3Y AA - grade, 7Y AA - grade medium - term notes, and 5Y AAA/AA - grade renewable urban investment bonds, the yields mostly declined. The 10Y high - grade urban investment bonds performed the best (the 10Y AAA - grade urban investment bonds decreased by 10.6BP). The yields of all terms and grades of secondary perpetual bonds declined, and the 7Y bank perpetual bonds performed the best (the yields of 7Y secondary perpetual bonds of all qualifications declined by more than 5BP). Most credit spreads narrowed, with the spreads of general credit bonds within 7 years changing mostly within about 2BP or less. The 10Y urban investment bonds/renewable urban investment bonds performed the best (the 10Y AAA - grade urban investment bonds/renewable urban investment bonds decreased by 8.8BP). Except for the slight widening of the credit spread of 3Y AA - grade bank perpetual bonds, the credit spreads of other terms and grades of secondary perpetual bonds all narrowed. The widening varieties were mainly concentrated in 5Y non - public general credit bonds and 1/3/5/7Y weak - quality medium - term notes [4]. - **Turnover Rate**: The turnover rates of general credit bonds and bank secondary perpetual bonds both decreased this week [52]. 3.3 Stock Bond Distribution - The current yields are mostly distributed within 2.4% [6]. - **Industry Bonds**: The average yields of various industries' public - offering industry bonds are presented in a table, showing the distribution by implicit rating and remaining maturity. Most industries' yields are within a relatively low range [106]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The average yields of public - offering urban investment bonds in various regions are presented in a table, showing the distribution by implicit rating and remaining maturity. The yields in most regions are within a relatively low range [108]. - **Small and Medium - Sized Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds**: The average yields of small and medium - sized bank secondary perpetual bonds in various regions are presented in a table, showing the distribution by implicit rating and remaining maturity [110].