Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent policy change on the value-added tax (VAT) for personal housing sales, reducing the rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, aims to lower seller transaction costs and help restore the transaction chain [2][4]. - The real estate industry has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with front-end indicators (sales, land acquisition, and construction) declining by 50-70%, and back-end indicators (completion and investment) dropping by 30-40% [4]. - The cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices from July 2021 to September 2025 is 37%, surpassing the average decline of 34% across 42 countries [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support demand-side recovery to stabilize the market, particularly in core cities [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The new VAT policy effective from January 1, 2026, will exempt individuals from paying VAT on properties sold after two years of purchase, while those selling within two years will pay a reduced rate of 3% [5]. Market Analysis - The report highlights the critical need for repairing household balance sheets to address the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, with expectations for further supportive policies to stabilize the market [4]. - Anticipated policy measures include reductions in mortgage rates, optimization of purchase restrictions and taxes in first-tier cities, accelerated land acquisition, and support for real estate financing [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two key investment opportunities: the revaluation of quality commercial real estate and the emergence of strong product capabilities in core cities [4]. - Recommended companies for investment include: 1. Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New World Development, Kerry Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Swire Properties and New World Development. 2. Quality housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, and China Jinmao. 3. Undervalued recovery companies: Jianfa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments. 4. Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Services, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, and China Overseas Property. 5. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4].

| 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.26 | 2.53 | 18.96 | | 中盘指数 | 0.33 | 5.85 | 27.79 | | 小盘指数 | 0.36 | 4.42 | 23.56 | | 涨幅居前 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业(％) | | | | | 家电零部件 | 5.24 | 13.89 | 57.7 | | Ⅱ | | | | | 电机Ⅱ | 4.46 | 9.81 | 47.01 | | 炼化及贸易 | 3.29 | 9.08 | 20.36 | | 自动化设备 | 2.39 | 8.75 | 28.39 | | 汽车零部件 | 2.33 | 8.93 | 25.51 | | Ⅱ | | | | | 跌幅居前 | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 行业(％) | | | | | 装修装饰Ⅱ | -3.08 | 6.02 | 37.72 | | 风电设备Ⅱ | -2.78 | 9. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Insights - The company has successfully navigated five industry trends over the past decade, demonstrating strong operational capabilities through strategic transformations [5][10]. - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts have been slightly adjusted, with expected revenues of 162 billion, 186 billion, and 209 billion for 2025-2027, and net profits of 32.2 billion, 35.4 billion, and 38.1 billion for the same period [6][8]. - The company is focusing on lightweight and high-quality RPG games, with recent successful launches in the mini-game sector, positioning it as a market leader [7][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Transformations - The company has undergone five significant strategic transformations since its inception, adapting to industry changes effectively [5][20]. - Key transformations include shifting to a joint agency model in 2012, integrating research and operations in 2016, leveraging short video marketing in 2019, expanding overseas in 2021, and capitalizing on the mini-game trend in 2023 [5][20][35]. 2. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected at 16,159 million, with a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, followed by a recovery in 2026 with a growth of 15.1% [6][8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in the coming years, reflecting improved operational efficiency [6][9]. 3. Market Position and Product Strategy - The company’s market share in the mini-game sector has grown significantly, with it being ranked first among mini-game companies in China [7][36]. - The overseas market for SLG games is evolving, with the company holding over 95% market share in this segment, indicating strong competitive positioning [7][53]. 4. Management and Operational Stability - The company boasts a stable management team with over ten years of experience, which has been crucial for its strategic execution and long-term sustainability [5][37]. - Recent adjustments in the organizational structure and operational strategies have enhanced the company’s adaptability to market changes [5][44]. 5. AI and Dividend Strategy - The company is actively integrating AI into its production and content innovation processes, enhancing its operational capabilities [7][53]. - The company has a strong dividend history, with a cumulative dividend of 11.5 billion since its listing, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [7][53].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the digital currency sector compared to the overall market performance [8]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has introduced an action plan to enhance the management and service system for digital currency, set to be implemented on January 1, 2026. This plan redefines digital currency from M0 to M1, integrating it into the reserve system and allowing interest payments on digital currency wallet balances [2]. - The action plan emphasizes a hybrid model combining account-based management and blockchain efficiency, highlighting the importance of compliance and regulation [2]. - With the M1 positioning, both individuals and commercial banks are incentivized to adopt and promote digital currency, enhancing its security and convenience compared to traditional electronic payments [2]. - The government is actively promoting cross-border digital currency payments, with initiatives such as the establishment of an international operation center in Shanghai and the launch of a cross-border digital payment platform [2]. - Various local governments are implementing measures to encourage the use of digital currency, such as issuing coupons and integrating it with cultural activities, indicating a strong push towards building a digital currency ecosystem [2]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The central bank's action plan includes integrating digital currency into the reserve system, allowing banks to pay interest on digital currency wallet balances, thus treating it similarly to deposits [2]. Market Dynamics - The shift to M1 is expected to motivate banks and individuals to engage more with digital currency, enhancing its usability and attractiveness [2]. Government Initiatives - The government is focusing on cross-border payment solutions and has launched several platforms to facilitate digital currency transactions, aiming to reduce transaction times significantly [2]. Related Companies - Companies involved in the digital currency ecosystem include those updating banking IT systems (e.g., Newland, Sifang Jingchuang), promoting payment solutions (e.g., Lakala), and hardware wallet providers (e.g., GDT, Feitian Integrity) [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The insurance sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment, with the company demonstrating significant advantages in managing liability costs and outperforming peers in interest spread performance [6][24] - The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, with a consistent increase in dividends over the past 13 years, and a projected dividend yield of 4.0% for A shares and 4.5% for H shares in 2025 [8][12] - The company is expected to benefit from a stable long-term interest rate environment and ongoing asset allocation improvements, which will enhance investment returns [31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Insurance Sector Revaluation - Concerns over interest spread losses have become a core factor affecting the valuation of life insurance companies, with the average P/EV of A-share listed insurance companies dropping below 1.0x since 2021 [23] - The company has the lowest new liability cost among A-share insurers at 2.42% for 2024, and a stock liability cost of 2.50%, indicating strong management capabilities [25] 2. Fundamental Improvement and NBV Growth - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 11.5% year-on-year, driven by strong investment performance and improved operational metrics [7][37] - The company’s NBV (New Business Value) growth is robust, with a year-on-year increase of 28.8% in 2024 and 46.2% in the first three quarters of 2025 [53] - The company’s diversified channel strategy is yielding results, with the bancassurance channel expected to continue contributing significantly to NBV growth [60][71] 3. High Dividend Characteristics - The company is currently underweighted by public funds compared to the CSI 300 index, which may lead to increased capital inflows as market conditions stabilize [8][12] - The company’s dividend mechanism based on OPAT (Operating Profit After Tax) is expected to support a recovery in double-digit growth for OPAT in 2026 [8][12] 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to reach 1,468 billion, 1,612 billion, and 1,880 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.9%, 9.9%, and 16.6% [12] - The estimated company value for 2026 is projected at 1.70 trillion RMB, with a target price of 93.8 RMB per share, corresponding to a P/EV of 0.99x [12]

日研究 /公司深 2025 年 12 月 30 日 报告原因: 首次覆盖 (首次评级) | 市场数据: 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | | --- | | 收盘价（元） 100.65 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 122.00/19.59 | | 市净率 16.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 0.55 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 83,723 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,965.28/13,537.10 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 . | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.20 | | 资产负债率% | 54.02 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 832/832 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势: 沪深300指数 相关研究 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈俊兆 A0230124100001 chenjz@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 生益电子 受益 AI ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive investment rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook based on its growth potential and market positioning [2]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a national-level "little giant" in passive optical devices, leveraging the AI data center boom to accelerate its expansion [5]. - The demand for passive optical devices is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing capital expenditure in global data centers and the rising need for high-speed optical communication [5]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major clients such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, which enhances its revenue growth prospects [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Market Positioning - The company specializes in manufacturing passive optical devices, focusing on applications in data centers and telecommunications, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas clients [11][12]. - The company has achieved substantial revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 16.25 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.24 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 91.38% and 123.75%, respectively [26]. 2. Technology and Market Trends - The report highlights the transition of passive optical devices into critical components for AI computing networks, driven by the need for high-speed, low-loss transmission in data centers [44]. - The demand for passive optical devices is being propelled by the rapid advancements in AI technology and the shortening of technology iteration cycles, with a shift towards higher-speed optical modules [46][50]. 3. Growth Barriers and Competitive Advantages - The company is investing heavily in R&D to build technical barriers and expand its production capacity, focusing on high-end products such as 800G and 1.6T optical modules [5][58]. - The company has established a stable customer base with major international clients, which enhances its competitive position in the market [5][22]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to see continued profit growth, with projected net profits of 3.05 billion yuan, 4.52 billion yuan, and 5.95 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]. - The report estimates a target market capitalization of 17.7 billion yuan based on a projected PE ratio of 39 times for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [5].

市公司 相关研究 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hangiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 年内最高/最低（元） 94.83/56.50 市,争客 5.1 股息率% (分红/股价) 0.27 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 66.947 上证指数/深证成指 3.965.28/13.537.10 注:"股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 15.45 | | 资产负债率% | 27.02 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 850/849 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | /- | 年内股价与大盘对比定势： 叶叫分/外력凹 市场数据 · 收盘价 (元) 研究支持 公司公布全资子公司与关联方共同投资暨关联交易公告。根据公司公告，公司全资子公司紫 ● 光同芯拟与志成高远等五个关联方，以及非关联方宁德时代全资子公司共同设立紫 ...

4令 | 新闻 2025 年 12 月 30 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuvt@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weivc@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务- 注展得得到最终产 ਘ布局; 造纸板块 HE、反内带 造纸轻工周报 2025/12/22-2025/12/26 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 重点提示：1) 短期关注具备高股息安全边际资产：行业格局趋于稳定的包装头部公司 【永新股份】【裕同科技】【华旺科技】【美盈森】; 家居头部企业【顾家家居】 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 29 日 收盘价（港币） 189.00 恒生中国企业指数 8891.71 52 周最高/最低（港币） 191.00/86.25 H 股市值（亿港币） 4,282.20 流通 H 股（百万股） 2,265.71 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -6% 194% 12/30 01/30 02/28 03/31 04/30 05/31 06/30 07/31 08/31 09/30 10/31 11/30 HSCEI 渣打集团 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 30 日 渣打集团 ...