Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][25] Core Insights - The main brand of the company shows steady growth, while the outdoor brand is experiencing strong momentum. The children's segment is growing faster than the adult segment, with footwear outperforming apparel. The newly introduced brand, Saucony, has seen over 20% growth in Q2 2025 and over 30% growth in the first half of the year [6][5] - The company is focusing on optimizing its multi-brand matrix and has initiated a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation, which is expected to enhance market responsiveness and efficiency [6][5] - The financial forecast indicates a projected net profit of 1.37 billion RMB for FY2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 10 [6][16] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 14.346 billion RMB - FY2024: 13.577 billion RMB - FY2025E: 14.636 billion RMB - FY2026E: 15.759 billion RMB - FY2027E: 16.911 billion RMB - Net profit projections for the same period are: - FY2023: 1.034 billion RMB - FY2024: 1.303 billion RMB - FY2025E: 1.368 billion RMB - FY2026E: 1.496 billion RMB - FY2027E: 1.633 billion RMB - The gross margin is expected to improve from 42% in FY2023 to 45% in FY2027 [6][16] Retail Performance - The retail performance for 2023 shows a year-on-year growth of approximately 20% in Q1, high double digits in Q2, and over 30% in Q4, with a consistent discount level of 7-7.5 [15][6] - The inventory turnover ratio is healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of about 4 to 4.5 months at the end of Q2 2025 [6][15] Brand Strategy - The company is focusing on its core running products, which have shown double-digit growth, while casual products have experienced some fluctuations. The newly launched products have received positive market feedback [6][5] - The DTC transformation is expected to enhance the company's ability to adapt to market changes and consumer demands, with plans to open larger stores and new store formats [6][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company's H1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of 55.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13% [6]. - The shipbuilding segment is showing gradual profit release, with a total profit increase of 98% year-on-year in H1 2025. The company has a strong order backlog of approximately 3.3 billion USD, ensuring revenue visibility [6]. - The diesel generator business is expected to benefit from demand growth due to AIDC expansion, highlighting the business's resilience and potential for profit growth [6]. - The company has a diversified business model and a global operational network, which helps mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations. The apparel segment saw a 49% year-on-year increase in exports in H1 2025 [6]. - The dividend yield is projected to be around 4.3% for 2025, providing a competitive edge [6]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards, with net profit estimates of 1.35 billion, 1.48 billion, and 1.61 billion yuan respectively, reflecting improved profitability in the shipbuilding sector [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 117.174 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.6% expected in 2025. Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.349 billion yuan, representing a 17.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 7.4% in 2025 to 7.9% by 2027, indicating better cost management and pricing power [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.2% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity [2]. Market Data - As of July 17, 2025, the company's closing price was 10.03 yuan, with a market capitalization of 13.107 billion yuan. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11 in 2024 to 8 by 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [3].

行 业 及 产 业 商贸零售 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 报 《京东（JD）点评：核心零售延续增势， 坚定投入外卖协同主业》 2025/07/12 《阿里巴巴（BABA）点评：投入闪购加码 即时零售，AI 驱动云智能加速》 2025/07/10 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 (8621)23297818× lixl2@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 18 日 平台加码即时零售，关注优质新消 费标的 看好 ——商业零售行业 2025 年二季报业绩前瞻 资料来源：公司公告，申万宏源研究；注：莱绅通灵、重庆百货、永辉超市、小商品城已发布 25Q2 业绩预告 表 1：重点跟踪的商贸零售企业 25Q2 业绩预测 | 代码 | 公司简称 | 25Q2 收入预测 | | 25Q2 归母净利润预测 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3517 points, with a daily increase of 0.37% and a monthly increase of 0.2% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2146 points, with a daily increase of 1.19% and a monthly increase of 1.85% [1] - Large-cap indices showed a daily increase of 0.67%, while mid-cap and small-cap indices increased by 1.38% and 1.05% respectively over the same period [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The components industry saw a significant daily increase of 6.77%, with a one-month increase of 30.19% and a six-month increase of 36.56% [1] - The aviation equipment sector increased by 3.84% daily, with a one-month increase of 9.56% and a six-month increase of 13.62% [1] - The communication equipment sector experienced a daily increase of 3.61%, with a one-month increase of 21.99% and a six-month increase of 25.02% [1] Group 3: Public Utilities Sector Analysis - The public utilities sector is expected to see significant performance improvements, particularly in hydropower and coal power [13] - Hydropower companies like China Yangtze Power and Huaneng Water Power reported year-on-year increases in power generation of 5.01% and 10.93% respectively [13] - Coal power profitability is expected to improve due to a significant decrease in coal prices, with the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping by 25.5% year-on-year [13] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, recommendations include China National Power, Sichuan Investment Energy, and Huaneng Water Power due to their strong performance in hydropower [13] - In the green energy sector, companies like Xintian Green Energy and Funi Co. are recommended for their stable profitability in wind power [13] - The nuclear power sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [13]

2025 年 07 月 17 日 聚焦航天航空行业，兼具稳研发与 高弹性： 万家国证航天航空行业 ETF（159208）投资价值分析 ——指数基金产品研究系列之二百五十 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 白皓天 A0230525070001 baiht@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 白皓天 (8621)23297818× baiht@swsresearch.com 量 化 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 权 益 股 票 基 金 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 万家国证航天航空行业 ETF（159208）是万家基金旗下的 ETF 产品，于 2025/4/28 成立， 并于 2025/5/12 正式上市。现任基金经理为贺方舟先生。基金紧密跟踪标的指数，追求跟 踪偏离度和跟踪误差最小化，管理费率 0.50%、托管费率 0.10%。 ⚫ 多重逻辑驱动行业快速发展，把握航空航天两大主线 ...

宏 观 研 究 "反内卷"系列 2025 年 07 月 17 日 "反内卷"：市场可能误解了什么？ ——"反内卷"系列专题之四 市场对"反内卷"重视度明显上升，但对"内卷"的理解却有很大分歧；多数观点以供给侧改革的 思维理解，但差之毫厘、谬以千里；除产量调控与自律约谈外，"反内卷"也有很多"隐藏手段"。 ⚫ 误解"内卷内涵"："反内卷"="反过剩"？ 需求成因不同："过剩"是需求下滑、供给被动过剩，"内卷"是需求强劲领域供给主动增加。供 给侧改革前，地产基建需求走弱，高耗能行业产能被动过剩；当下外需表现更强，但外需行业固定 资产周转率下滑至历史最低水平（2.6 以下），内需行业固定资产周转率虽在下行，但仍处于历史中 位数，外需行业比内需行业更卷；外卖等服务业（非贸易部门）不存在产能过剩问题、但也在内卷。 物价表现不同："过剩"是企业因需求下滑跟随式降价，"内卷"是企业因需求强劲"降价无序竞 争"。供给侧改革前，地产基建需求走弱，煤炭钢铁等 PPI 随之明显回落，相关行业制造业投资也 下行；当下内卷领域，盈利偏弱而制造业投资大幅扩张，外需领域投资增速更高（13%）。出口商 品价格（同比-5%以下）甚至低于相同商 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [2][5][24] Core Views - Anta Sports has shown strong group revenue growth driven by multiple brands, with significant results from new retail formats [5][7] - The company is expected to stabilize its performance in the second half of 2025 after a temporary slowdown in the main brand's growth [7] - The multi-brand strategy continues to demonstrate strong potential for future growth, particularly with the acquisition of the Wolf Claw brand [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - FY2023: 623.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 708.3 billion RMB - FY2025E: 779.5 billion RMB - FY2026E: 839.2 billion RMB - FY2027E: 900.7 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 16% for FY2023, 14% for FY2024, and gradually decreasing to 7% by FY2027 [6][15] - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - FY2023: 102.4 billion RMB - FY2024: 156.0 billion RMB - FY2025E: 134.1 billion RMB - FY2026E: 147.0 billion RMB - FY2027E: 160.1 billion RMB - The projected PE ratios are 23 for FY2023, 15 for FY2024, and 18 for FY2025E [6][15] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, while FILA showed mid-single-digit growth [7] - Other brands such as Descente and KOLON saw revenue growth between 50-55% in Q2 2025, continuing strong performance in niche segments [7] - The new retail formats, including Champion stores and SV collection stores, have shown significantly higher sales efficiency compared to traditional stores [7] Market Position and Strategy - Anta Sports is focusing on enhancing its brand health and optimizing its online product distribution system [7] - The company has successfully maintained healthy inventory levels, with inventory turnover ratios around five months [7] - The report highlights the scarcity and quality of Anta's multi-brand matrix as a key competitive advantage [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][17] Core Views - The company has announced a significant earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth expected to be no less than 200% and profit growth no less than 350% compared to the same period in 2024 [7] - The report highlights the company's strong IP (Intellectual Property) long-term operational capabilities, with a focus on expanding product categories and enhancing brand presence in new markets [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 6,301 million RMB - 2024: 13,038 million RMB - 2025E: 30,994 million RMB - 2026E: 42,415 million RMB - 2027E: 52,922 million RMB - The expected growth rates for revenue are 36% in 2023, 107% in 2024, and 138% in 2025 [6][8] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 1,184 million RMB - 2024: 3,220 million RMB - 2025E: 10,336 million RMB - 2026E: 14,353 million RMB - 2027E: 17,992 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 107% in 2023, 172% in 2024, and 221% in 2025 [6][8] Market Expansion and Product Development - The company has increased its retail presence in mainland China, with a total of 177 stores, a 40.5% increase from the beginning of the year [7] - The company is expanding its international footprint, particularly in North America, where the number of stores has doubled to 53, and in Southeast Asia, with 9 new stores [7] - New product launches have shown strong market engagement, with several IP products achieving record popularity on social media [7] Updated Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast has been revised upwards, with expected revenues for 2025-2027 now at 30.994 billion RMB, 42.415 billion RMB, and 52.922 billion RMB respectively [7] - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same period have also been increased to 10.336 billion RMB, 14.353 billion RMB, and 17.992 billion RMB [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Report's Core View - Western Lide Fund's Chen Baoguo, with 15 years of securities experience and 5 years of fund management experience, manages 4 funds with a total scale of 1.258 billion yuan. He adheres to reverse investment in the high - prosperity general manufacturing sector, aiming for long - term growth while emphasizing safety margins [2][6]. - Western Lide Jingrui, a representative product, has outstanding short - and long - term performance, maintains growth elasticity, and has good long - term holding profitability. It focuses on the general manufacturing sector, with investment styles shifting and high turnover [2][20]. - The fund manager has strong capabilities in various aspects, including excellent performance in prosperous market conditions, long - term outstanding invisible trading capabilities, and recent prominent industry rotation and stock - selection abilities [2][56]. - The excess returns of Western Lide Jingrui mainly come from stock - selection and industry allocation, and the fund manager's ability circle covers a wide range of general manufacturing fields [2][61]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Western Lide Fund Chen Baoguo: Persisting in Reverse Investment in High - Prosperity General Manufacturing 1.1 Fund Manager's Basic Information: A Veteran with Over 5 Years of Product Management - Chen Baoguo is a master of finance from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, holding multiple positions at Western Lide Fund. He has 15 years of securities experience, 5 years of fund management experience, and currently manages 4 funds with a total scale of 1.258 billion yuan. His in - charge products include Western Lide Huixin 6 - month Holding, Western Lide Green Energy Mix, Western Lide Carbon Neutralization, and Western Lide Jingrui [6]. - The representative product, Western Lide Jingrui, has achieved a total return of 98.69% and an annualized return of 13.57% since Chen Baoguo took over on February 15, 2020 [7]. 1.2 Fund Manager's Investment Framework: Left - hand Reverse Investment in Long - term Prosperous Industries, Emphasizing Safety Margins - Investment philosophy: Seeking long - term logic and growing with the capital market, similar to being an "orchard farmer." The investment strategy involves finding companies with short - term callbacks but good long - term prospects in favored sectors for reverse investment or left - hand layout, while emphasizing safety margins [2][17]. - Stock - selection strategy: Qualitative screening focuses on company governance, platform level, and industry; quantitative analysis selects undervalued stocks with certain long - term prospects from good industries [17]. 2. Return - Risk Characteristics: Balancing Short - and Long - term Returns, Maintaining Growth Elasticity 2.1 Outstanding Performance Since Taking Over, Continuously Maintaining Elastic Returns Recently - Since taking over on February 15, 2020, Western Lide Jingrui has a cumulative return of 98.69%, ranking 9th among similar active equity funds. Its maximum drawdown is within the top 30% of similar products. After the market rebound on September 24, 2024, it still maintained prominent elasticity, with a cumulative return of 43.97% and a maximum drawdown within the top 50% of similar products [21]. - Compared with other high - performing products, Western Lide Jingrui is one of the few funds that focus on the advanced manufacturing field and maintain high elasticity recently [27]. - Western Lide Jingrui ranks 5th in the information ratio compared to the advanced manufacturing index among similar products, with a relatively low tracking error [29]. 2.2 Good Long - term Holding Profitability - As the holding time of Western Lide Jingrui increases, the historical probability of making money and the return rate gradually rise. The probability of making money after holding for five years is as high as 100%, with an average return of 91.4%. In different holding periods, its average return and winning rate exceed those of the Shenwan Advanced Manufacturing Index and the CSI 300 Total Return Index [31]. 3. Fund Holding Characteristics: Growth Investment with High Turnover, Outstanding Stock - selection Ability 3.1 Industry Allocation: Focusing on General Manufacturing, with Recent Industry Allocation Adjustments - Since taking over, Western Lide Jingrui has long focused on the general manufacturing sector, mainly including advanced manufacturing and technology industries. There have been two major industry allocation changes within the general manufacturing sector, with the focus shifting from power equipment to technology recently [34]. - In terms of secondary - industry allocation, it was previously concentrated in power equipment with a new - energy theme and has recently shown prominent characteristics in software development, semiconductors, and computer equipment [36]. 3.2 Investment Style: Growth - style Investment with High Turnover, Recently Tending towards Small - cap Growth - Since 2023, the fund's turnover rate has gradually increased, with the latest annualized turnover rate exceeding 12 times, and the investment style has changed from mid - and large - cap growth to small - cap growth [2][39]. - In the early stage, the fund's allocation was relatively balanced, but since the second half of 2022, it has mainly held small - and medium - cap stocks. The stability of heavy - position stocks has declined, but some stocks have been held continuously for more than three quarters [46][50]. - The heavy - position stock - selection ability is outstanding, and the heavy - position stocks can achieve relatively stable excess returns compared to the industry index [52]. 4. Fund Manager's Ability Circle: Excellent Performance in Prosperous Market Conditions, Long - term Outstanding Invisible Trading Capabilities, and Recent Prominent Industry Rotation, Allocation, and Stock - selection Abilities - The fund manager's investment strategy is suitable for prosperous market conditions, with high elasticity in high - prosperity industries. The product has shown continuous and prominent performance in prosperous market conditions since taking over [56]. - The long - term high turnover rate of Western Lide Jingrui is consistent with the investment strategy of selecting undervalued stocks and selling them in time after value regression. The long - term strong invisible trading ability indicates that the reverse investment strategy can provide stable returns [57]. - In late 2024, the fund manager adjusted the industry and stock allocation structure. The ability to rotate industries and select stocks is the basis for the product's long - term high elasticity and adaptability to prosperous market conditions [57]. 5. Fund Return Contribution Breakdown: Stock - selection and Industry Allocation Contribute Mainly to Excess Returns, with a Wide Stock - selection Ability Circle - The excess returns of Western Lide Jingrui since taking over can be explained by stock - selection and industry allocation, resulting from the investment strategy of selecting high - prosperity industries and undervalued stocks for left - hand layout. During the market decline from the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2024, trading also contributed significantly [61]. - The absolute and relative contributions of the automotive and power equipment industries are prominent. Technology industries such as communication, media, and computer also contribute excess returns in most periods, indicating that the fund manager's ability circle covers a wide general manufacturing field [65].

Group 1: Policy Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025) is transitioning into the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030), with a focus on strategic resources and urban renewal[2] - The management of strategic resources, particularly rare earths and lithium, will become stricter during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[2] - The development of the marine economy is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing marine technology and fostering leading enterprises in marine science[2] Group 2: Economic Development Strategies - The planning process for the "15th Five-Year Plan" has increased its focus on the global political and economic landscape, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments[2] - Urban renewal policies will be advanced, aiming to establish sustainable urban renewal models and financing mechanisms[2] - The report indicates a significant increase in the focus on labor income distribution and its impact on consumption capacity, reflecting the importance of residents' income levels[29] Group 3: Research and Development Focus - The report outlines the need for innovative policies to support the cultivation of unicorn enterprises and future industries during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[26] - There is a notable emphasis on the integration of technology and capital markets to enhance investment and financing coordination[32] - The report suggests that the international situation will be a critical factor in shaping the "15th Five-Year Plan" policies[7]