证 券 研 究 报 告 核心观点 ◼ 中长期资金入市战略定位持续升级，分红险转型成效超预期，险资入市外部驱动因素明确。1月22日，中央金融办等部门联合发布《关于推 动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》，提出力争大型国有保险公司从2025年起每年新增保费的30%投资A股，标志着中长期资金入市正式步 入全面实施阶段，险资将扮演关键角色。1H25分红险转型成效亮眼，大力发展分红险为优化负债成本的重要抓手，同时有望推动险资提升 权益配置比例，分红险资产配置风险偏好较一般账户更高，截至6月末，友邦保险分红账户资产中权益资产配置比例达39.0%，高于非分红 账户28.0pct。8月底预定利率非对称下调后，分红险产品的相对吸引力有望进一步提升，为险资入市培育新的驱动力。 ◼ 1H25保险行业/上市险企增配二级市场权益6223/4862亿元，1H25上市险企二级市场权益投资规模增幅高于新增保费30% 1927亿元。截 至6月末，保险资金运用余额较年初增长8.9%至36.2万亿元；7家上市险企投资资产规模合计较年初增长7.5%至21.9万亿元，占行业整体比 重的60.3%。险资整体债券/股票/长期股权投资配置比例提升，截至6月末， ...

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器/ 小家电 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 程恺雯 (8621)23297818× chengkw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 09 月 08 日 锂电化智能化起势，割草机器人高 成长时点到来 看好 ——割草机器人行业深度 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 割草机海外市场广阔，机器人渗透率提升。海外家庭庭院较多，割草机为欧美相对刚需 的一大园林工具品类，根据雨果跨境数据，2024 年割草机行业规模达到 374 亿美元， 同比增长 7.5%，割草机按照行进方式分类，骑乘式、手持式和手推式占比分别为 22%/21%/15%，预计 2024 年割草机器渗透率为 7.5%。 ⚫ 锂电化、智能化成为割草机两大发展方向。趋势一：政策、成本控制驱动下，燃油割草 机向锂电割草机 ...

当及立北 农林学文由 2025 年 09 月 08 日 版 发行业 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 潮潮 (8621)23297818× shenghan@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 黄鸡价格涨势延续，关注生猪产能去化情况 农林牧渔周观点（2025.9.1-2025.9.7） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 若研究报 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.3%，沪深 300 下跌 0.8%。个股涨幅前五名：宏辉果蔬（9.2%）、 晓鸣股份 (7.1%)、中粮糖业 (5.4%)、中基健康 (5.4%)、好当家 (5.0%)，跌幅前五名：华资实 业 (-12.5%)、万辰集团 (-9.3%)、神农科技 (-8.9%)、ST 天山 (-8.3%)、保龄宝 (-7.9%)。投 资分析意见：重视生猪养殖 "反内卷"进程，把握优质猪 ...

2025 年 09 月 08 日 SoFi 发行 Agentic AI ETF ——海外创新产品周报 20250908 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com ETP 研 究 证 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 美国 ETF 创新产品：SoFi 发行 Agentic AI ETF。上周美国共 10 只新发产品，期权、杠 杆产品仍较多。SoFi 上周发行一只"代理式人工智能"（Agentic AI）ETF，相比于传统 AI 工具，代理式人工智能可以通过自主感知、推理、规划与执行独立完成复杂任务，该产 品跟踪的指数投资于自动驾驶、人工智能助手、网络安全、自主工业机械及半导体和云计 算等相关公司，重仓股包括英伟达、特斯拉、PALANTIR 等，这三只股票的权重都超过 ...

2025 年 09 月 08 日 发行明显回落，但下周再提速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250905 相关研究 《发行保持高位，但下周发行较少— —地方债周度跟踪 20250829》 2025/08/31 《新增地方债发行提速，30Y 减国债 利差大幅走阔 ——地方债周度跟 踪 20250822》 2025/08/24 《发行继续降速，10Y 地方债减国债 利差走阔 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250815》 2025/08/17 《发行开始降速，近期流动性下降 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250808》 2025/08/10 《发行继续提速，减国债利差走阔— —地方债周度跟踪 20250801》 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用 ...

上 市 公 司 ——降本增效+开拓新业务，盈利能力持续改善 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 05 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 14.82 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 19.97/8.30 | | 市净率 | 2.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.56 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 14,128 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,812.51/12,590.56 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.81 | | 资产负债率% | 50.99 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 953/953 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-05 10-05 11-05 12-05 01-05 02-05 03-05 04-05 05-05 06-05 07-05 08-05 09-05 -50% 0% 50% 100% ...

行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2025 年 09 月 08 日 新能源国补下发加速，全国天然气 消费持续回暖 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(25/08/31~25/09/5) 本期投资提示： 行 评 - ⚫ 电力：近期多家新能源运营商收到可再生能源补贴资金，可再生补贴发放有望加快。近 期，金开新能、太阳能、晶科科技等多家新能源运营商公告收到可再生能源补贴，预计 将显著改善新能源运营商公司的现金流。2023 年 1 月，国网新能源与南方电网分别正 式公布了《关于公布第一批可再生能源发电补贴合规项目清单的公告》，公布的国家电 网清单中可再生能源项目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company's sales remain resilient, but profitability has declined due to tariffs and increased costs [1] - The company reported a total revenue of 41.19 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.24%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.72 billion yuan, down 37.64% year-on-year [6] - The report highlights a decrease in tire production and sales, with production down 3.21% to approximately 15.57 million units and sales down 1.5% to about 14.87 million units [6][7] - The company is experiencing pressure on profitability due to rising raw material prices and tariffs affecting exports [6] - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025 to approximately 14.07 billion yuan, down from previous estimates, with expected PE ratios of 15, 11, and 10 for the next three years [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024: 8,511 million yuan, 2025: 8,699 million yuan, 2026: 10,649 million yuan, 2027: 12,151 million yuan [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 1,407 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.6% [5] - The gross margin is projected to decline to 23.8% in 2025, down from 32.8% in 2024 [5] - The report indicates a significant drop in return on equity (ROE) to 9.9% for 2025, compared to 16.2% in 2024 [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Recent surge in gold prices, with London gold reaching nearly $3580 per ounce on September 3, 2025, after a four-month period of high volatility [12][10] - Under neutral assumptions, the gold price midpoint for the second half of the year is projected at $3627 per ounce, with an optimistic scenario suggesting a rise to $3816 per ounce [12][10] - Key drivers for the recent price increase include a shift in investment from long-term US and European bonds to gold due to concerns over debt risks, particularly in Europe [12][11] Group 2: International Beauty Market Trends - The global beauty market is expected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2024, down from 8% in 2023, with significant regional disparities [13][13] - The European market outperformed the global average with a 7.5% year-on-year growth, while the North Asia market saw a decline of 2% [13][13] - Major international beauty brands are adapting to the competitive landscape in China by embracing new online channels and local partnerships, leading to a slight recovery in market performance [13][13] Group 3: Fourth Paradigm Company Overview - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 68.52 billion, 88.19 billion, and 112.26 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 27% respectively [17][17] - The company is expected to turn a profit by 2025, with net profits forecasted at 0.55 billion, 2.83 billion, and 5.68 billion yuan for the same period [17][17] - The company's strategy focuses on standardization, which is anticipated to drive rapid industry expansion and maintain long-term competitiveness [14][14]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated positively, with a focus on recovery in coal prices in the second half of 2025, which is expected to lead to performance recovery for coal companies [5][43]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the coal sector underperformed the market, with the Shenwan coal mining index declining by 12.73%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.76% [5][8]. - The average price of Q5500 thermal coal at ports was approximately 678 CNY/ton, down 22.57% year-on-year, and the average price for the second quarter was 633 CNY/ton, down 25.27% year-on-year [5][16]. - The overall revenue of 23 major listed coal companies was 513.1 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.9% year-on-year, with net profit falling by 31.1% to 55.5 billion CNY [5][22]. - The average dividend payout ratio for the coal industry increased to approximately 56.3% in 2024, reflecting a high dividend yield characteristic [5][35]. - The average return on equity (ROE) for the coal industry decreased to about 5.8% in the first half of 2025, down from previous years [5][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The coal sector's performance was weaker than the market, with significant price declines impacting profitability [5][8]. - The first half of 2025 saw a high inventory level and a traditional off-peak season, leading to downward pressure on coal prices [5][16]. 2. Revenue and Profitability - Major coal companies reported a total revenue of 513.1 billion CNY, with a notable decline in both thermal and coking coal revenues [5][21]. - The net profit for the coal sector dropped significantly, with the thermal coal segment seeing a 24.1% decrease in net profit [5][22]. 3. Financial Metrics - The average expense ratio for the coal mining sector was 9.74%, showing a slight increase from the previous year [5][29]. - The industry maintained an average debt-to-asset ratio below 50%, indicating stable financial health [5][33]. 4. Dividend Trends - The coal industry's average dividend payout ratio has been on the rise, with several companies planning mid-year dividends in response to favorable policies [5][35]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal for their stable operations and high dividends, while Shanxi Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy are noted for their undervalued potential [5][43].