市公司 同研究人公司深 2025 年 09 月 11 日 兆易创新 (603986) -本土多元芯片设计领军, AI 与汽车电子重绘成长曲 线 报告原因:首次覆盖 ar (首次评级) | 市场数据: 2025年09月10日 | | --- | | 收盘价（元) 161.29 | | 188.00/64.13 一年内最高/最低（元） | | 市净率 6.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 0.21 | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) 107,420 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,812.22/12,557.68 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 25.96 | | 资产负债率% | 11.94 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 666/666 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | 年内股价与大部对 证券分析师 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 袁航 A0230521100002 yuanhang@swsresea ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the home appliance industry, highlighting three main investment themes: white goods, export opportunities, and core components [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a revenue growth of 7.34% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching 482.5 billion yuan. Net profit increased by 3.14% to 37.41 billion yuan [4][15][18]. - The report identifies a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with white goods showing steady growth, while kitchen appliances faced declines in both revenue and profit [4][38][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.3% from April to June 2025, lagging behind the 1.3% increase in the CSI 300 index [10][11]. 2. Q2 2025 Revenue and Profit Trends - The home appliance industry saw a total revenue of 482.5 billion yuan, marking a 7.34% increase year-on-year. The net profit for the same period was 37.41 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.14% growth [4][15][18]. 3. Sub-sector Performance 3.1 White Goods - White goods revenue reached 300.21 billion yuan, growing by 5.81% year-on-year, while net profit was 30.38 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.86% [38][39]. 3.2 Kitchen Appliances - Kitchen appliance revenue fell by 8.36% to 7.944 billion yuan, with net profit declining by 13.80% to 0.813 billion yuan [43][44]. 3.3 Small Appliances - Small appliances achieved a revenue increase of 14.10% to 37.23 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 14.68% to 2.599 billion yuan [49][50]. 3.4 Black Goods - Black goods revenue grew by 8.23% to 100.34 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 13.93% to 1.342 billion yuan [53][55]. 3.5 Components - The components sector reported a revenue increase of 15.74% to 36.739 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 14.38% to 2.278 billion yuan [58][61]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the white goods sector, export-oriented firms, and key component manufacturers, highlighting their potential for growth amid favorable market conditions [4][5][6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its leadership in diversified chip design and a projected PE of 70X for 2025, which is below the average of comparable companies, indicating a potential valuation growth of 24% [11][10]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a global leader in diversified chip design, ranking among the top ten integrated circuit design firms in the NOR Flash, SLC NAND Flash, niche DRAM, and MCU sectors based on 2024 sales [10][24]. - The demand for AI toys, humanoid robots, and other edge devices is expected to surge in 2025, significantly boosting the need for the company's SPI NOR Flash products, which are essential for program storage and high-speed data reading [10][69]. - The company is strategically positioned to capture market share in the DRAM sector as original manufacturers exit, with a robust product lineup and strong partnerships with domestic DRAM wafer manufacturers [10][73]. - The automotive electronics sector is a key focus, with the company offering a full range of automotive-grade products and actively pursuing certifications to support advanced driving systems [10][65]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates total revenue of 9,376 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 27.5% [9]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 1,526 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 38.4% [9]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 38.3% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 40.3% by 2027 [12]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The specialized storage market is entering an upward cycle, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics and the increasing demand for AI applications, with the market projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.1% from 2025 to 2029 [43][48]. - The company is leveraging its technological advancements in NOR Flash and SLC NAND to meet the growing requirements of AI and automotive applications, positioning itself for substantial growth in these sectors [10][50]. - The report highlights the company's competitive edge in the SPI NOR Flash market, emphasizing its ability to provide high-performance products tailored for various applications, including AI and automotive electronics [10][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, indicating a "Look Forward" investment rating for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.34% in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching 482.5 billion yuan [4][19]. - The net profit for the industry in Q2 2025 was 37.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.14% [4][22]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from real estate policy changes and trade-in incentives; 2) Export opportunities driven by large customer orders; 3) Core components seeing increased demand due to the favorable market conditions for white goods [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.3% from April 1 to June 30, 2025, compared to a 1.3% increase in the CSI 300 index [14][18]. 2. Q2 2025 Home Appliance Industry Performance - Revenue growth of 7.34% year-on-year, with total revenue of 482.5 billion yuan [4][19]. - Net profit growth of 3.14% year-on-year, totaling 37.41 billion yuan [4][22]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.36 percentage points to 23.21% [25]. 3. Sub-Industry Performance 3.1 White Goods - Revenue reached 300.21 billion yuan, growing by 5.81% year-on-year [41]. - Net profit was 30.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.86% [42]. 3.2 Kitchen Appliances - Revenue declined by 8.36% to 7.944 billion yuan, with net profit down 13.80% to 0.813 billion yuan [46]. 3.3 Small Appliances - Revenue increased by 14.10% to 37.23 billion yuan, but net profit fell by 14.68% to 2.599 billion yuan [51]. 3.4 Black Goods - Revenue grew by 8.23% to 100.34 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 13.93% to 1.342 billion yuan [55]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Hisense, Midea, Haier, and Gree, due to their favorable valuation and growth potential [4][5][6].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.9.11 美国公布新增非农就业远低于预期，降息预期提升，沪深300领涨全球 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 7月全球资产价格回顾：美国就业数据不及预期提示了美国经济的衰退风险持续上升，降息预期推动下，全球风险偏好提升明显，8月全球权益类和商品类资产表现较好，而中国的创业板 以及沪深300领涨全球股市。1）权益方面，8月在中国股市走势本身的强动量下，各路资金纷纷被吸引入市，推动股市不断上涨，8月来说，创业板上涨24.4%，沪深300上涨10.9%，相 比之下，标普500仅上涨3.6%，而发达国家股市上涨3.5%；2）固收层面，美国就业数据的恶化推动降息预期提升，7月31日到8月29日，10年美债收益率下行14BPs，美元指数从 100.03下行到97.85；3）商品层面，降息预期下，贵金属涨幅上涨明显，COMEX黄金上涨3.4%，铜上涨2.07%；原油 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Analysis - The real estate industry is currently facing fundamental challenges and policy constraints, with broad demand having bottomed out after four years of adjustment. The key issue lies in purchasing power rather than demand, as the increase in second-hand home transactions has not stabilized prices due to a weak middle class affecting the housing chain [2][8] - The "Good House" policy is expected to create a new path for recovery, leading to a five-fold resonance in core cities. This includes the creation of new products and markets, urban renewal, housing consumption upgrades, wealth reallocation under capital controls, and stock market strength contributing to the recovery of the housing market [8][2] - Core cities like Hong Kong have shown signs of recovery, with multiple favorable factors driving price stabilization. Other cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are also approaching recovery, supported by the aforementioned five-fold resonance [8][2] Group 2: Robotics Industry Analysis - The global market for lawn mowers is projected to reach USD 37.4 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The penetration rate of robotic lawn mowers is expected to reach 7.5% in 2024, driven by the increasing demand for garden tools in North America and Europe [3][9] - The shift towards lithium battery-powered and smart lawn mowers is evident, with the market for new energy garden machinery expanding significantly. The cost advantages of boundary-free robotic mowers over traditional models are also highlighted [9][3] - Domestic companies are rapidly gaining market share in the lawn mower sector, leveraging technological advancements and strong R&D capabilities. Companies like Ninebot and Ecovacs are leading the way with innovative products and significant revenue growth [9][3]

业 及 产 业 房地产 2025 年 09 月 10 日 好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市五重共振 看好 ——好房子专题报告系列之三 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：销售和融资资金趋紧，收储和城改推进不及预期。 究 / 行 业 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 (8621)23297818× chenpeng@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 业 研 ⚫ 行业现状：房地产基本面的困境和政策面的约束。基本面，房地产经历了 4 年深度调整 后，目前行业广义需求总量已经见底，二手房的扩容对冲了新房的缩量，一二手房合计 成交已持续稳定 3 年多，问题关键不在于需求、而在于购买力。但二手房成交持续放量 并没能推动房价止跌回稳，楼市"量在价先"的历史经验失效，这源于中产走弱导致的 置换链不畅，从而造成"二手房刚需化+新房改善化"的格局 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The report focuses on Dun Xinyi of Nuoyuan Fund, who manages technology - related active equity products. Her core idea is to use algorithms as the source and algorithm iteration as the key driver to dynamically adjust the investment portfolio in the evolution of the AI industry. Her representative product, Nuoyuan Steady Return, has excellent performance, and she has outstanding stock - selection and industry - allocation abilities [2][13][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Nuoyuan Fund Dun Xinyi - Grasping the Core Industry Driving Force and Capturing Opportunities in the AI Industry Track - **Background**: Dun Xinyi has about 3.2 years of investment manager experience, has managed 7 products in total, and currently manages 4 products with a total scale of 2.009 billion yuan. Her fund manager index has historically outperformed the CSI 300 Index [2][9]. - **Investment Philosophy**: In the evolution of the AI industry, Dun Xinyi adheres to using algorithms as the source and algorithm iteration as the key driver to determine the configuration rhythm of hardware, applications, and terminals. Her investment method is to dynamically adjust the investment portfolio around changes in model capabilities. She focuses on the application of AI in the pharmaceutical industry and the robotics industry [13][14]. - **Representative Product**: Nuoyuan Steady Return, established in September 2014, has been managed by Dun Xinyi since June 2023. The product aims to achieve long - term stable investment returns through flexible asset allocation, with a management fee rate of 0.6% and a custody fee rate of 0.20% [2][16]. 2. Performance Analysis of Nuoyuan Steady Return - **Performance**: Since June 3, 2023 (as of August 31, 2025), the annualized return of Nuoyuan Steady Return reached 14.71%, ranking in the top 16% among active equity funds. The annualized Sharpe ratio was 0.51, and the Calmar ratio was 0.29, ranking approximately in the top 30% and top 40% respectively [19]. - **Relative Performance**: Since its establishment until August 2025, Nuoyuan Steady Return has outperformed the CSI Technology Index, with an interval return of 35.67%, while the CSI Technology Index only rose 30.26% during the same period. From September 2024 to August 2025, the monthly winning rate was 67.7%, and the average monthly excess return was 1.99% [25][29]. 3. Investment Feature Analysis of Nuoyuan Steady Return - **Industry Distribution**: The product's holdings are concentrated in the technology innovation sector, with moderate adjustments in sub - industries within the sector. For example, it increased the allocation of the communication sector in H1 2024 and decreased the allocation of the computer and media sectors, then increased the allocation of computer and media in H2 2024 [31]. - **Holding Characteristics**: The product has a moderately concentrated stock - holding pattern, with the top ten holdings accounting for over 50% and the top thirty holdings accounting for over 80%. The holding period is short, and the fund manager actively changes positions, with a turnover rate always above 15 times since H2 2023. The market - value style is flexible, with a recent bias towards medium - and large - cap stocks [34][39]. - **Income Source**: Using the Brinson model, it is found that both stock - selection and trading can contribute significant excess returns. The fund has a strong ability to obtain relative returns in the technology innovation sector [42][46]. - **Product Feature Summary**: The product focuses on the technology innovation sector, makes moderate adjustments within the sector, has a short holding period, high stock - holding concentration, and active position - changing [50]. 4. Fund Manager's Ability Circle - The product has a relatively high concentration in both industries and stocks, with the stock concentration decreasing moderately recently and the industry concentration remaining high. The stock - selection ability is outstanding, ranking in the top 10% among similar products in the long - term, except for H1 2024 when the cross - sectional holding performance was poor due to market fluctuations. The industry - allocation ability is also excellent, with the performance of the deployed sectors leading the overall market return [52][53].

宏 观 研 究 物价数据 2025 年 09 月 10 日 为何大宗涨价拉不起 PPI？ ——通胀数据点评（25.08） 事件：9 月 10 日，国家统计局公布 8 月通胀数据，CPI 同比-0.4%、前值 0%、预期-0.2%、 环比 0%；PPI 同比-2.9%、前值-3.6%、预期-2.9%、环比 0%。 核心服务 CPI 同比在暑期出行、医疗服务改革等支撑下延续上涨，而房租 CPI 因青年就业 问题持续弱于季节性。8 月，服务 CPI 同比较前月小幅上行 0.1pct 至 0.6%。结构上，核 心服务 CPI 环比 0%、符合季节性（0%），一方面受暑期出行支撑；统计在食品中的在外 餐饮 CPI 同比上行 0.8pct 至 1.9%。另外医疗服务改革持续拉动医疗服务价格上涨，同比 +0.5pct 至 1.6%。而房租 CPI 受青年失业率较高的拖累，8 月环比 0%、不及季节性。 ⚫ 核心观点：上游涨价对 PPI 环比贡献转正，但中下游产能利用率偏低对 PPI 拖累仍较大。 统计因素的扰动消退后，8 月 PPI 边际改善，主要表现为大宗商品价格对 PPI 环比拉动明 显回升。PPI 为每月 5 日、2 ...

Group 1: Industry Structure Adjustment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes industry structure adjustment as a key component of national economic planning, with specific targets set in previous plans like the "13th" and "14th" Five-Year Plans[1] - The focus of industry structure adjustment has shifted from the ratio of the three industries to prioritizing technological innovation and R&D investment[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" introduced new targets for digital economy core industries, reflecting a transition from broad to detailed planning[3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Targets - From 2010 to 2024, the share of the secondary industry in GDP has stabilized, with figures of 45.7%, 40.0%, 36.9%, and 36.5% respectively, while the tertiary industry's share increased from 45.1% to 56.7%[21] - The average growth rate of R&D investment in enterprises reached 9.8% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a strong emphasis on innovation[17] - The service sector's contribution to GDP has shifted from finance and real estate to information technology, with significant increases in the GDP share of information transmission and technology services during the "13th" Five-Year Plan[4] Group 3: Future Directions and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to continue supporting technological innovation, with emerging industries like artificial intelligence and marine economy highlighted in recent government meetings[5] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy aims to address supply-demand mismatches in manufacturing, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 34 consecutive months as of July 2025[6] - The service sector is anticipated to receive increased policy support to enhance employment stability and stimulate consumption, particularly in areas like education and healthcare[6]