2025 年 11 月 16 日 新增债发行提速，减国债利差表现 分化 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251114 相关研究 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《下周发行降速，关注中长端地方 债性价比——地方债周度跟踪 20251031》 2025/11/02 《新增债发行提速，偿还存量债务 特殊再融资债再发行——地方债周 度跟踪 20251024》 2025/10/26 《5000 亿元结存限额下达，四季度 地方债发行或继续放量——地方债 周度跟踪 20251017》 2025/10/19 《发行持续放缓，减国债利差表现 分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251010 》 2025/10/12 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 债券周评 目录 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 ...

Main Points - The report highlights three main investment themes: market recovery and supply-demand balance favoring leading companies, the role of AI in enhancing efficiency and generating secondary revenue, and the complexity of tourism investment driven by resource endowment and product refinement [5][6][17]. Group 1: Market Recovery and Supply-Demand Balance - The hotel market is expected to see a slight recovery, with average daily rates (ADR) showing positive trends [18][25]. - Luxury, mid-range, and economy hotels are experiencing a rebound after supply adjustments, with an increase in chain hotel ratios and mid-range hotel market share [7][26]. - The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port is anticipated to significantly reduce import costs for businesses, enhancing the attractiveness of the region for tourism and hospitality investments [7]. Group 2: AI Applications in Recruitment - AI applications in recruitment are not solely focused on cost reduction but are increasingly aimed at generating additional revenue through enhanced efficiency [5][45]. - AI technologies are transforming recruitment processes, including job description generation, resume screening, and video interview analysis, leading to improved matching and efficiency [46][50]. - The recruitment service market is expanding rapidly, with high growth potential in the mid-to-high-end online recruitment sector [50]. Group 3: Tourism Investment Dynamics - The tourism investment landscape is complex, requiring a combination of resource endowment and product refinement to navigate economic cycles successfully [6][17]. - The luxury cruise market is gaining traction among older demographics, with high-quality experiences driving demand despite higher pricing [8]. - Policy changes promoting school holidays and flexible work arrangements are expected to boost service consumption, particularly in the tourism sector [8][11]. Group 4: Consumer Trends and Market Potential - The service consumption market is showing structural vitality, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% year-on-year, outpacing goods consumption [11]. - The "new silver-haired" demographic is emerging as a significant consumer group, with a growing focus on travel and leisure spending [68]. - The domestic tourism market is recovering steadily, with a projected 56.2 billion domestic trips in 2024, reflecting a 14.8% year-on-year increase [62].

业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch.com 2025 年 11 月 16 日 广州车展新车频发，智能车是明年 高确定性主线 看好 ——2025/11/10-2025/11/14 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 及 产 业 行 汽车 - ⚫ 观点：广州车展上智驾平民化、智能座舱-大模型深度融合宣告——智能化不再是加分 项，而是入场券。油电同智也是此次车展一大看点，广丰、日产等车企都将推出自己全 新智能化武装的燃油车，回到消费者的视线来。我们认为 2026 年将是智能化的决胜 年，任何车企将借助智能化重新分配份额。我们建议首先关注包括特斯拉、小鹏为首的 科技领先企业，也建议关注底部区间的比亚迪、理想。同时对业绩有支撑、估值相对较 低且有提升潜力的 ...

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 2025 年 11 月 16 日 各品牌陆续发布双十一战报，九阳 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 本周家电板块跑赢沪深 300 指数。本周申万家用电器板块指数上涨 1.1%，同期沪深 300 指数下降 1.1%。重点公司方面，九阳股份（26.6%）、莱克电气（12.2%）、海信视 像（7.1%）领涨；三花智控（-12.3%）、荣泰健康（-2.6%）、科沃斯（-1.5%）领跌。 ⚫ 行业动态：1）石头科技发布双十一战报：登顶清洁电器品牌 TOP1，扫地机市场份额 TOP1，达到 34.75%，洗地机市场份额 TOP2，达到 25.02%，净销售额同比增长 408.52%。吸尘器净销售额同比增长 2295.52%。2）九阳豆业"哈基米豆浆"引领热 潮：九阳豆业推出名为"哈基米南北绿豆豆浆"的植物饮料并在消费市场掀起热潮，九 阳豆浆旗舰店所属公司为杭州 ...

行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2025 年 11 月 16 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 (8621)23297818× wanglp@swsresearch.com 双 11 国货天猫抖音持续霸榜，整体稳中有进 看好 ——化妆品医美行业周报 20251116 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 本周化妆品医美板块表现强于市场。2025 年 11 月 7 日至 2025 年 11 月 14 日期间， 申万美容护理指数上涨 3.7%，表现强于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数上涨 2.5%，强于 申万 A 指 3.0pct；申万个护用品指数上涨 3.7%，强于申万 A 指数 4.2pct。 ⚫ 周观点：双 11 国货天 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 环保 2025 年 11 月 16 日 光大环境 (00257) ——拟发行不超 8 亿股回 A，助力长期价值提升 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 32,090 | 30,258 | 29,976 | 30,938 | 31,954 | | 同比增长率（%） | -14.02 | -5.71 | -0.93 | 3.21 | 3.28 | | 归属普通股东净利润 | 4,429 | 3,377 | 3,589 | 3,810 | 4,055 | | 同比增长率（%） | -3.75 | -23.75 | 6.26 | 6.17 | 6.43 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.72 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.66 | | ROE（%） | 9.20 | 7.01 | 7.12 | 7.23 | ...

纺织服饰 2025 年 11 月 16 日 澳毛价格企稳回升，全运会开幕提振户外运动板块 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20251116 相关研究 《 10 月纺服出口承压，中美磋商利好有望 修复出口链——纺织服装行业周报 20251110》 2025/11/10 《 Q3 品牌服饰表现分化，中美关税缓和 下关注出口链——纺织服装行业周报 20251102》 2025/11/02 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 (8621)23297818× zhubl@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 ⚫ 本周纺 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 洞悉分化常态，深耕价值本源 ——2026年公募REITs首发及扩募市场策略展望 证券分析师：彭文玉 A0230517080001 朱敏 A0230524050004 任奕璇 A0230525050002 联系人: 任奕璇 A0230525050002 2025.11.16 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 审度首发新常态，洞见估值新平衡。2025年公募REITs市场常态化控速发行，前10月共19只产品启动招募，数量仍居近五年高位，且新 增两只IDC-REITs。首发估值安全垫作用下，1-9月首日涨幅普遍在25%-30%，网下产品数量由年初不足200只跃升至目前930只，中签 率也随之压降至低于1%，年内网下认购收益率仍然达到3.5%（1千万-2亿元现金账户）。网下参与者以券商、险资为主，公募、私募数 量也较去年翻番。战配收益亦不逊色，年内胜率100%且平均浮盈35%，战投机构数已升至275家（较2024年增长6%），REITs战配更是 "一席难求"。但10月起，REITs首发估值有明显抬升趋势，首发估值折价率大幅收窄至不足10%，甚至个别项目折价空间不 ...

Group 1 - The education industry is expected to see a turnaround as the fundamentals reach a bottom and policies advance, particularly in higher education [3][7][9] - The demand for vocational training among young people is surging, leading to an upturn in the vocational education sector [3][86] - The tutoring industry is characterized by strong brand growth and franchise operations, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][85] Group 2 - The education index has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, with a year-to-date absolute return of 11.4% and an excess return of -17.5% [6] - The private higher vocational education sector has shown strength, with a cumulative return of 52.9% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 24% [6] - The report highlights specific companies such as Yuhua Education, Zhongjiao Holdings, and New Higher Education as key players to watch [8][84] Group 3 - The policy of profit-oriented classification management is gradually being reinitiated, which is expected to stabilize the investment returns for private higher education institutions [9][13] - The quality of education in private institutions has significantly improved over the past five years, with key metrics such as student-to-teacher ratios and per-student funding meeting standards [77][75] - The anticipated recovery in profitability for private higher education companies is linked to the completion of quality assessments and the potential for expansion following the issuance of profit-oriented licenses [71][74] Group 4 - The vocational education market is experiencing a boom due to the increasing number of graduates and those who do not pass entrance exams entering the labor market [88] - The number of high school graduates is on the rise, while the labor force from junior high school graduates is shrinking, indicating a shift in educational demand [89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [3] Core Views - Global oil inventories are expected to continue increasing until 2026, with the EIA forecasting a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day for this year [5][11] - The EIA has raised its price forecasts for crude oil and natural gas for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average crude oil price of $69 per barrel in 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026 [6][8] - Demand growth for global oil is projected at 790,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 770,000 barrels per day in 2026, with significant contributions from the US, China, and Nigeria [8][45] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The EIA and IEA have both adjusted their global oil supply forecasts upwards by 100,000 to 150,000 barrels per day due to OPEC's announced production increases [10][11] - The EIA expects global oil production to rise by 2.81 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.39 million barrels per day in 2026 [10][11] - The IEA anticipates a demand increase of 310,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026, with a total average supply reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [46][47] Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.39 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.19%, while WTI futures rose to $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% [20] - The number of active oil rigs in the US increased to 549, with a slight week-on-week rise [35] Refining Sector - The report indicates an improvement in refining profitability due to rising product price spreads, despite current levels being relatively low [5][13] - The Singapore refining margin increased to $24.26 per barrel, while the US gasoline-WTI spread decreased to $20.84 per barrel [5] Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA and polyester filament yarn has improved, with PTA prices rising to 4,585.4 CNY per ton [5][13] - The report suggests a recovery in the polyester sector, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand dynamics shift [13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5][13] - It also highlights the resilience of oil companies like PetroChina and CNOOC in the face of potential price declines, recommending those with high dividend yields [13]