——北交所策略周报（20250714-20250720） 本周策略观点： 本周市场行情： 2025 年 07 月 20 日 北证进入低波动快轮动周期的原因 及应对思考 北交所新股： ⚫ 本周：北交所 0 只新股上市；截至 2025 年 7 月 18 日，北交所共有 268 家公司上市交易。 ⚫ 下周：上会 1 家（泰凯英）；申购 1 家（鼎佳精密）；上市 0 家。 风险提示： ⚫ 个股业绩季度波动过大风险，宏观经济下行的风险。 相关研究 - 证券分析师 刘靖 A0230512070005 liujing@swsresearch.com 王雨晴 A0230522010003 wangyq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑菁华 A0230525060001 zhengjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 A0230123090006 wangbh@swsresearch.com 吕靖华 A0230124070002 lvjh@swsresearch.com 汪秉涵 (8621)23297818× wangbh@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see the exit of over 20-year-old outdated capacities, which could accelerate the recovery of the refining sector. The EIA has adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to an average of $69 and $58 per barrel, respectively [4][10]. - Demand for oil is projected to increase by 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day this year, with a notable decline in demand in Q2 2025. The IEA and OPEC have also provided similar forecasts for global oil demand growth [4][15]. - The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the polyester sector, driven by supply-demand dynamics and the gradual exit of outdated capacities [21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $69.28 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. The WTI price also fell by 1.62% to $67.34 per barrel [25]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 544, although this represents a year-on-year decrease of 42 rigs [39]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin increased to $14.50 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread decreased to $21.14 per barrel [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as oil prices adjust downward, and the competitive landscape for leading refining companies is expected to benefit from the exit of overseas refineries and low domestic refining rates [21]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability is on the rise, while profits from polyester filament yarn have declined. The report notes that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes [4][21]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as the industry is expected to gradually improve [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and China Petroleum, as well as upstream exploration and production companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][14]. Core Insights - The report forecasts a year-on-year increase of 12.1% in net profit attributable to shareholders for A-share listed insurance companies in the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 192.63 billion yuan [3]. - The report highlights strong growth in new business value (NBV) for listed insurance companies, with significant contributions from dividend insurance products, particularly from companies like Xinhua Insurance and China Life [4]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in the combined ratio (COR) for property and casualty insurance companies, driven by effective risk control and cost reduction strategies [5]. - The investment environment is expected to improve, with a downward trend in long-term interest rates, which may alleviate pressure on the fair value of bonds [6]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The report predicts robust NBV growth for listed insurance companies in 1H25, with Xinhua Insurance expected to grow by 50.1% year-on-year and China Life by 10.9% [4]. - The transition to dividend insurance has become a strategic focus for several companies, with notable increases in the proportion of dividend insurance products [4]. Property and Casualty Insurance - The report notes a 5.2% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income for property and casualty insurance companies in the first five months of 2025, alongside a 2.3% decrease in claims [5]. - The report expects the COR for major companies to show continued improvement, with estimates of 94.7% for China Property & Casualty and 97.3% for China Ping An [5]. Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of undervalued stocks and mid-year performance, suggesting that the anticipated reduction in interest rates could optimize new liability costs [6]. - Companies recommended for investment include Xinhua Insurance, China Life (H), China Pacific Insurance, ZhongAn Online, China Property & Casualty (H), and China Ping An [6].

宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 2025 年 07 月 20 日 "解雇"鲍威尔？ ——"流动性笔记"系列之二 大类资产&海外事件&数据：美国 6 月核心 CPI 弱于预期，美国或将提高对欧关税 近期，特朗普可能"解雇"鲍威尔的"传言"再度引发股债汇"三杀"。"影子联储主席"再 度成为焦点话题。特朗普解雇鲍威尔的动机、流程、潜在影响如何，鲍威尔会否提前离任？ 热点思考："解雇"鲍威尔？ 一问：传言特朗普或"解雇"鲍威尔，如何定价美联储失去"独立性"？美联储总部大楼翻新 超支问题，或成为特朗普"解雇"鲍威尔的依据。7 月 16 日-17 日盘中，资本市场再现股债汇 "三杀"局面，或是定价美联储货币政策失去"独立性"。 二问：特朗普为什么要解雇鲍威尔？一方面，特朗普强调关税对通胀影响有限，寄希望于低利 率刺激经济，缓和关税对经济冲击，为明年中期选举积累政治资本；另一方面，特朗普希望美 联储降低利率可缓解财政付息压力。2025 年 6 月，美国财政利息支出已占财政支出的 16.9%。 三问：法律角度，特朗普能否解雇鲍威尔？特朗普须证明鲍威尔存在"渎职"行为，鲍威尔也 有权提起诉讼、申请临时禁令继续任职；特朗普意图解除 ...

轻工制造 行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 07 月 20 日 Q2 出口板块个股业绩分化；内需 整体仍存盈利压力，两轮车、黄金 珠宝表现较好 看好 ——轻工造纸行业 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 (8621)23297818× weiyc@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 1）出口：25Q2 业绩存在分化，抗风险突出个股业绩增长稳健。25Q2 ...

2025 年 07 月 20 日 英伟达称将重新对华出口 H20，中 美股市情绪指标维持乐观 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250711-20250718) 证 券 研 究 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 涂锦文 A0230525070006 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 研 究 大 类 资 产 配 置 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 大类资产配置 ⚫ 本周（20250711–20250718）7 月 16 日，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋透露英伟达将获准重新对华出口 H20 的 GPU。该消息大幅提振了香港股市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4][32]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued downward trend in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with a significant decrease in new home sales in major cities [4][5]. - The central government emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards more robust policy support [4][32]. - The report suggests that while transaction volumes have stabilized, they have not yet entered a positive cycle, and further supportive measures are anticipated [4][32]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of July 12-18, 2025, new home sales in 34 key cities totaled 1.591 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 20.1% [4][5]. - Year-to-date, new home sales are down 11% compared to the previous year, with first and second-tier cities experiencing a 17.3% year-on-year decline [6][32]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home sales in 13 key cities totaled 1.031 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.4% [4][13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand home sales are down 11.4% year-on-year as of July [4][13]. Inventory and Market Dynamics - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 730,000 square meters of new homes launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.87, indicating ongoing inventory challenges [4][23]. - The average months of inventory for new homes in these cities has increased to 19.8 months [4][23]. Policy and News Tracking - The central government has called for a focus on urban renewal, with various local governments implementing "old-for-new" subsidy policies to stimulate the market [4][32]. - Recent statistics show a 11.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for the first half of 2025 [4][32]. Company Dynamics - Several real estate companies have reported their half-year performance, with notable declines in sales for major players like China Resources Land and Longfor Group [4][32]. - Companies such as Zhonghua Enterprises and Nanshan Holdings have reported significant profit increases, while others like Vanke and JinDi Group have faced substantial losses [4][32].

2025 年 07 月 20 日 新增地方债发行开始提速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20250718 相关研究 《发行和净融资环比提升, 减国债 利差持续收窄——地方债周度跟踪 20250711 》 2025/07/13 《7 月发行或放量, 减国债利差继续 收窄——地方债周度跟踪 20250704 》 2025/07/06 《发行明显提速，但下周再度放缓— —地方债周度跟踪 20250627 》 2025/06/29 《减国债利差整体收窄，下周发行将 明显提速——地方债周度跟踪 20250620 》 2025/06/22 《发行继续降速，10Y 和 30Y 减国 债利差小幅收窄——地方债周度跟 踪 20250613 》 2025/06/15 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 (8621)23297818× yangxf@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 ...

——指数基金产品研究系列报告之二百五十 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 20 日 科技+金融相互赋能，政策+技术双 重驱动：华夏中证金融科技主题 ETF 投资价值分析 证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 研究支持 方思齐 A0230123090003 fangsq@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230123080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 (8621)23297818× fangsq@swsresearch.com 化 研 究 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 权 益 量 股 票 基 金 相关研究 - ⚫ 金融科技行业在政策红利与技术创新的双重驱动下，正迎来长期发展机遇。 在"十四五" 规划等顶层设计的指引下，金融科技的发展环境持续向好。同时，以人工智能、大数据、 云计算为代表的核心技术正加速与金融业务深度融合，全面赋能支付清算、财富管理、交 易 ...

债 券 研 究 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 王哲一 (8621)23297818× wangzy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2025 年 07 月 20 日 债市短期与中期矛盾的关注点 策 略 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 资金和机构行为仍是债市短期主要矛盾。 ◼ 资金面：本周（2025/7/14-2025/7/18）无论从表态、资金投放以及资金 价格走势等多重视角来看，央行呵护债市态度较为明确且及时，本周债市 虽受税期扰动、超长期限特别国债发飞、股债跷跷板等多重不利因素影响， 但债市并未出现明显调整。 ◼ 机构行为：由于 2025Q1 债市出现调整，固收类产品今年累积利润较薄， 即使债市出现小幅波动，投资者也对此较为敏感，当前债市向下空 ...