Group 1 - The report highlights the tightening of safety and environmental regulations in the coal industry, which is expected to impact supply and pricing dynamics [4][5][6]. - Domestic coal production growth is slowing, with November coal production showing a year-on-year decline of 3.3% in Shanxi province, while overall national coal production for the first eleven months of 2025 increased by 1.4% [23][25][33]. - Industrial coal demand remains stable, but thermal power demand is experiencing temporary pressure, leading to fluctuations in coal prices [10][61]. Group 2 - The report notes that the seasonal adjustment of national railway freight rates is expected to enhance the economic viability of coal production areas and increase price volatility during adjustment periods [9]. - The report indicates that coal prices are likely to recover in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand increases, particularly in the context of winter heating needs [10][41]. - The coal supply-demand balance shows that the top ten coal companies account for approximately 50% of total coal production, with significant production contributions from major companies like China Energy Group and Shanxi Coking Coal Group [33][34]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that coal imports have decreased significantly, with a 12% year-on-year decline in imports for the first eleven months of 2025, particularly from Indonesia and Russia [50][54]. - The report also highlights that the coal production in Xinjiang has been growing, with November production reaching 5 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.6% [41][42]. - The report discusses the resilience of the steel industry’s coal demand, with low inventory levels potentially supporting price rebounds [56][60].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Xiangyu [3][9] Core Insights - Xiamen Xiangyu is positioned as a comprehensive investment holding group focused on bulk commodity supply chain services, aiming to become a global supply chain service provider. The company has shown a significant recovery in revenue growth and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, driven primarily by its metal mining and energy chemical businesses [8][28]. - The report identifies three major trends reshaping the bulk supply chain industry: the strategic focus on supply chain autonomy amid geopolitical tensions, the transition from traditional trade to integrated service platforms, and the globalization of logistics networks following domestic manufacturing expansion [8][41][50]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for Xiamen Xiangyu is expected to reach 387.75 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 21.84 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 53.9% compared to the previous year [7][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be 0.77 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11x [7][9]. Business Model and Growth Drivers - Xiamen Xiangyu's business model is evolving from traditional trading to a comprehensive service platform, focusing on value-added services that enhance customer operations. This shift is expected to stabilize revenue streams and improve profitability [8][50][54]. - The company has made substantial investments in fixed assets and is pursuing digital transformation and globalization as dual drivers for future growth. The shipbuilding segment is also projected to contribute significantly to profit, with a substantial order backlog [8][9][60]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Xiamen Xiangyu's market position is strengthened by its diversified business operations, which include metal supply chains, logistics, and shipbuilding. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in trade demand and improved industrial performance [8][30][60]. - The report compares Xiamen Xiangyu with peers such as Jianfa Co., Xiamen Guomao, and Sumida, noting that the average PE ratio for comparable companies is 14x, indicating a potential upside of 26% for Xiamen Xiangyu's current market valuation [9][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the overseas education sector, particularly on New Oriental, with an investment rating of "Buy" [12]. Core Insights - New Oriental is expected to achieve revenue of $1.165 billion in 2QFY26, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.2%. The education business (including cultural tourism) is projected to generate $957 million, up 11% year-on-year, while other businesses (mainly Dongfang Zhenxuan) are expected to reach $208 million, growing 18% year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company is anticipated to be $63 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 77.8% [6][12]. - The report highlights a slowdown in the growth of the study abroad business, with expected revenue of $242 million in 2QFY26, down 3% year-on-year. This slowdown is attributed to high-end consumption challenges in the one-on-one exam preparation segment. The company is adapting by shifting from one-on-one to one-to-many class formats to lower per-class costs and expanding services to younger students [2][6]. - New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, are projected to grow by 21% year-on-year to $364 million in 2QFY26. The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and profit margins through improved utilization of existing teaching resources [3][7]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The education index increased by 2.8% during the week, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points. Year-to-date, the education index has risen by 13.1%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 9.18 percentage points [5]. Company Updates - New Oriental's revenue forecast for 2QFY26 is $1.165 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of $63 million and a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.4%, expanding by 2 percentage points year-on-year [6][12]. - The report notes a significant decline in the growth rate of the study abroad business, with a projected revenue decrease of 3% year-on-year [2][6]. - The new business segment is expected to maintain strong growth, with a projected revenue increase of 21% year-on-year [3][7]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on Hong Kong vocational education companies, particularly China Oriental Education, due to a rebound in vocational training demand and the company's proactive operational adjustments. It also suggests monitoring higher education companies as profitability is expected to improve [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The company, a leader in high-power power supply solutions, is expected to benefit significantly from the AI wave, leading to high growth in its server power supply business. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 48.42 billion, 59.10 billion, and 69.33 billion yuan, with net profits of 3.80 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.39 billion yuan respectively [7][10]. - The company has a diversified business model with three main segments: power adapters, server power supplies, and other power solutions, which collectively form a robust growth strategy [9][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the switching power supply sector, evolving into a leading manufacturer of power adapters, server power supplies, and other power solutions. It was established in 1996 and has expanded its product offerings significantly since then [21][24]. 2. Server Power Supply - The company is positioned as a domestic leader in high-power server power supplies, expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI computing power. The server power supply segment is projected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates of 60%, 40%, and 28% from 2025 to 2027 [9][10][15]. - The company’s products cover a wide range of power requirements, including high-efficiency solutions tailored for AI servers, which are critical for meeting the evolving demands of the market [9][74]. 3. Other Business Segments - The power adapter segment remains a stable revenue source, while the company is actively expanding into new areas such as electric vehicle chargers and other specialized power products, which are expected to contribute to future growth [9][82]. - The company is leveraging the recovery in consumer electronics demand to boost its power adapter sales, with significant growth anticipated in the display market, driven by new technologies and increased gaming demand [82][85]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 48.42 billion, 59.10 billion, and 69.33 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3.80 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.39 billion yuan. The report suggests a target market capitalization of 311.45 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current market value [10][15].

国内心局 2025 年 12 月 26 日 开局之年, 地方如何"因地制宜" ? 部委与地方学习中央经济工作会议精神解析 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释 放的增量信息与政策信号有何深意？本文分析，可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体,突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后,中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方 向，密集开展会议精神的学习、解读与部署工作。各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消 带结构演变等,财税部门聚焦财力保障,经济大省侧重开放布局,边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻 性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。融资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"， 与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化,坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。其指出"我国 正在从以商品消费为主转向商品消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦 消费类基建,并提出"靠前 ...

宏 观 研 究 国内政策 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释 放的增量信息与政策信号有何深意？本文分析，可供参考。 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体，突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方 向，密集开展会议精神的学习、解读与部署工作。各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消 费结构演变等，财税部门聚焦财力保障，经济大省侧重开放布局，边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻 性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。融资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"， 与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化，坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。其指出"我国 正在从以商品消费为主转向商品消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦 消费类基建，并提出"靠前实施具备条件的'十五五'重大项目"。 改革方面，中财办注重统一大市场与"双碳"建设。"反内卷"层 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The government has increased its emphasis on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, with multiple policies coordinated to promote the construction of the domestic economic cycle and the domestic demand system [2][7][8] - It is expected that the year-on-year pork price will gradually turn positive in the second half of 2026, which will support the CPI, especially the food CPI [2][14][20] - The CSI All-China Food Index selects leading companies in the food industry, with high price elasticity, strong offensive ability, and long - term stable excess return potential. Currently, the valuation of the food sector has bottomed out, and the medium - to - long - term allocation cost - effectiveness is prominent [2][22][50] - The Huaxia CSI All - China Food ETF closely tracks the CSI All - China Food Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error [2][52] Summary According to the Directory 1. Policy Emphasizes Expanding Domestic Demand and Boosting Consumption, Focus on Investment Opportunities in the Food Sector - **Policy Attention Increased: Boosting Consumption and Expanding Domestic Demand** - Multiple policies are coordinated to promote the domestic economic cycle and the construction of the domestic demand system. Since December, authoritative media and high - level authorities have continuously emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the significance of boosting consumption [2][7][8] - The "Qiushi" magazine pointed out that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move related to economic stability and security. The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year, and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the firm implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand [2][9][13] - **Expected Gradual Recovery of Pork Prices, Focus on Food CPI Changes in 2026** - Since the second half of 2022, the CPI has been continuously declining and has been hovering at a low level since 2025, suppressing the contribution of prices to the profits of mass consumer goods [2][14] - Although the CPI was at a low level in 2025, the demand for dairy products showed signs of stabilization. The retail prices of milk and yogurt ended a three - year decline in the second half of 2025 [17][19] - Due to the structural surplus of production capacity and low breeding costs, the year - on - year decline in pork prices has widened since the second half of 2025. It is expected that the year - on - year pork price will gradually turn positive in the second half of next year, supporting the CPI, especially the food CPI [20][21] 2. CSI All - China Food Index - **Index Compilation: Selecting Leading Food Industry Companies** - The CSI All - China Food Index was released on July 15, 2013. It selects all listed company securities belonging to the tertiary "Food" industry from the CSI All - China sample space, aiming to comprehensively reflect the overall performance of A - share food industry listed company securities [22][25][26] - The index samples are adjusted semi - annually, with a single sample weight limit of 10% [26] - **Industry Market Value Characteristics: Industry Concentrated in the Primary Consumption Sector, with a Market Value Pattern Dominated by Leading Companies** - As of December 18, 2025, the index has 79 constituent stocks, with an average total market value of 1.6575 billion yuan. There are 3 stocks with a market value exceeding 10 billion yuan, and more than half of the constituent stocks have a total market value of less than 1 billion yuan [27][30][33] - The top ten constituent stocks have a total weight of 50.4%, and the top three weighted stocks are Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd., Haitian Flavoring & Food Co., Ltd., and Shuanghui Development Co., Ltd., with weights of 10.52%, 9.05%, and 6.05% respectively [30][31][33] - The index is concentrated in the food sub - industries, especially in the seasoning fermentation products II, food processing, and beverage dairy sectors, with a combined proportion of over 64%, highly focusing on the food field directly facing consumers [33][34][39] - **High Index Volatility and Strong Offensive Ability** - Historically, the index has shown a clear offensive ability, especially in the market driven by the consumption sector, with long - term stable excess return potential. It also has significant high elasticity, with higher volatility and drawdown than the market broad - based index [40][42][45] - In the long run, the index has shown stable income growth ability, with a cumulative return and annualized return of 256.10% and 8.87% respectively, exceeding the performance of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI All - China Index during the same period, reflecting the long - term allocation value of the core assets in the consumption industry [42][43] - **The Valuation of the Food Sector has Bottomed Out, and the Medium - to - Long - Term Allocation Cost - Effectiveness is Prominent** - As of December 18, 2025, the price - to - earnings ratio of the index is 31.52, with a historical quantile of 22.26%, and the price - to - book ratio is 2.85, with a historical quantile of 5.32% [50][51][52] - The index has experienced an adjustment since the high in late 2020, and recently shows signs of stabilization, with limited downside risk [50] 3. Huaxia CSI All - China Food ETF - The Huaxia CSI All - China Food ETF (fund code: 159151) closely tracks the CSI All - China Food Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and tracking error. The fund started raising funds on December 22, 2025, and ended on December 26, 2025, with fund manager Wang Xinwei [2][52][55]

Group 1: JD (京东) Analysis - The revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to decline by 0.4% year-on-year to 345.5 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit expected to be 216 million yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 0.1% [2][12] - JD's retail revenue is anticipated to decrease by 4.7% year-on-year to 292.6 billion yuan in Q4 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year driven by national subsidies [3][12] - The company is expected to face pressure on growth in the battery-powered category, while the daily necessities category is projected to maintain relatively stable growth [3][12] - JD is actively responding to market changes by increasing subsidies, which may lead to a decline in retail profit margins year-on-year [3][12] - The company is focusing on its food delivery and international business, with expectations of narrowing losses in the food delivery segment in Q4 [12] - JD has launched "JD Review" to innovate the local life service ecosystem, aiming to provide objective consumer references [12] Group 2: Deer Chemical (迪尔化工) Analysis - Deer Chemical is transitioning from a cyclical business model to a growth-oriented one by integrating its nitrate production with molten salt energy storage [4][11] - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in production capacity starting in 2025, which will enhance its sales and overall performance [4][11] - The traditional business is anticipated to recover as the chemical industry stabilizes, with nitrate prices supported by liquid ammonia [11][13] - The demand for molten salt is projected to grow significantly due to its applications in concentrated solar power and flexible coal power generation [13][16] - The company aims to establish a complete product matrix involving potassium nitrate and sodium nitrate, enhancing its competitive edge in the energy storage market [16] Group 3: Unisoc (紫光国微) Analysis - Unisoc is collaborating with Ningde Times to establish a leading platform for automotive-grade chips, enhancing its market competitiveness [15][16] - The establishment of Unisoc Tongxin aims to optimize capital structure and improve performance in the automotive domain [16] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for special integrated circuits driven by national defense and commercial aerospace sectors [16] - Unisoc maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.723 billion, 2.460 billion, and 3.495 billion yuan respectively, with a strong growth outlook [16]

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 24 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 17.43 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 18.50/7.64 | | 市净率 | 1.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.80 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 58,434 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,940.95/13,486.42 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.09 | | 资产负债率% | 73.11 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 4,225/3,352 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/774 | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -50% 0% 50% 100% 12-24 01-24 02-24 03-24 04-24 05-24 06-24 07-24 08-24 09-24 10-24 11-24 12-24 金风科技 沪深 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive industry, specifically recommending companies with strong alpha potential and growth prospects [2][4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the used car export market, particularly from Japan, emphasizing the need for standardized rating systems and trust-building measures between buyers and sellers [3]. - It suggests that companies with strong operational capabilities, such as large dealership groups and platforms like Uxin, are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of used car exports [3]. - The report notes that the automotive parts sector is currently facing headwinds due to high inventory levels and the exhaustion of trade-in subsidies, but there is a cautious optimism for market recovery in the coming year [4]. - Companies like Daimay and Fuda are highlighted for their stable performance and growth potential, particularly in the robotics sector and their international market presence [5][6]. Summary by Sections Used Car Export Insights - The used car export market is hindered by trust issues and a complex transaction chain, with Japan's stringent vehicle inspection policies serving as a potential model for improvement [3]. - Uxin is identified as a key player with a growing inventory of nearly 7,000 used cars, making it a recommended investment for the next two to three years [3]. Automotive Parts Sector Update - The automotive industry did not experience the anticipated year-end surge, primarily due to the depletion of trade-in subsidies and consumer hesitance [4]. - Recommendations include companies with strong alpha characteristics such as Shuanghuan Transmission and Yinlun, which are expected to benefit from stable growth and high market ceilings [4]. Daimay and Robotics Sector - Daimay is recognized for its stable earnings, low valuation, and significant growth potential, particularly in automotive interior components and robotics [5][6]. - The company has made significant strides in expanding its client base, including partnerships with major electric vehicle manufacturers, and is positioned to support Tesla's localization efforts in North America [6].