Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The monetary policy in 2026 will continue to align with fiscal measures, supporting debt sustainability and fiscal health [2] - Interest rate cuts in 2026 may remain restrained due to reduced urgency from anti-involution trends [2] - The international economic struggle will have financial implications, particularly for the internationalization of the RMB amid intensified US-China tensions [2][13] Group 2: Misunderstandings about "Deposit Migration" - There are three main misunderstandings regarding "deposit migration": underestimating excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [3][15] - The potential scale of household savings entering the stock market could exceed one trillion yuan, driven by a significant increase in excess savings [3][15] - The speed of funds entering the market may be underestimated due to reliance on non-bank deposit tracking, which does not accurately reflect the migration of household funds [3][15] Group 3: Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521) Insights - Huahai Pharmaceutical integrates raw materials and formulations, establishing a solid foundation for growth, with a projected revenue of 5.759 billion yuan in 2024 [4][14] - The company is focusing on innovative drug development in immunology and oncology, with over 70 patents filed and several projects in clinical stages [4][18] - The target market capitalization for Huahai Pharmaceutical is estimated at 34.4 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 30.04% [4][18] Group 4: Zhongxin Innovation (03931) Overview - Zhongxin Innovation is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for energy storage and electric vehicle batteries, with a revenue of 16.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [19][20] - The company is expanding its market share and enhancing its product offerings, with a focus on high-end battery products and a global production network [19][20] - The projected net profit for Zhongxin Innovation is expected to grow significantly, reaching 3.84 billion yuan by 2027 [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's high-end strategy and the integration of its ecosystem across vehicles and home appliances provide stronger resilience compared to previous storage cycles [4] - The company has reported slightly better-than-expected earnings for Q3 2025, with revenue of 113.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22% [6] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 reached 11.3 billion RMB, up 81% year-on-year [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 271 billion RMB - 2024: 366 billion RMB - 2025E: 476 billion RMB - 2026E: 565 billion RMB - 2027E: 679 billion RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -3% for 2023, 35% for 2024, 30% for 2025, 19% for 2026, and 20% for 2027 [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 43.5 billion RMB - 2026E: 44.5 billion RMB - 2027E: 58.4 billion RMB - Corresponding year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 59% for 2025, 2% for 2026, and 31% for 2027 [5][6] Business Segment Performance - Smartphone segment: - Q3 2025 revenue of 460 billion RMB, with an average selling price (ASP) of 1,063 RMB per unit [6] - The company aims to ship 170 million units in 2025, with a slight adjustment in forecasts due to market conditions [6] - IoT segment: - Q3 2025 revenue of 27.6 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 23.9% [6] - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 29% for 2025 [6] - Internet services: - Q3 2025 revenue of 9.4 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 76.9% [6] - Electric vehicle (EV) segment: - Q3 2025 revenue of 29 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 25.5% and a delivery target of 400,000 units for 2025 [6]

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The scale of excess savings is underestimated; excess savings exceed excess deposits, with a potential market entry scale of over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][33] - The current household savings rate has reached a 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][33] - The market's calculation of excess savings based on deposits alone (approximately 3.7 trillion yuan) ignores the impact of wealth management products[2][30] Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations of household funds entering the market, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][38] - Non-bank deposits amount to 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market (settlement margin) are only 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a significant discrepancy[4][39] - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing substantial increases since September 2024[4][41] Group 3: Investment Sensitivity of Excess Savings - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][59] - The reduction in housing expenditure has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][59] - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, indicating a pressing need for asset reallocation among residents[6][64]

Group 1: Misunderstandings about Excess Savings - The market underestimates the scale of excess savings, which is greater than excess deposits, with current excess savings estimated at over 9.4 trillion yuan[2][34]. - The household savings rate has reached a near 15-year high of 29.8%, indicating a significant increase in excess savings[2][34]. - The potential scale of household savings entering the stock market could exceed 1 trillion yuan, based on historical experiences from previous bull markets[3][38]. Group 2: Misunderstandings about Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "deposit migration" may lead to underestimations, as this figure includes interbank business disturbances[4][42]. - Non-bank deposits total approximately 35 trillion yuan, while the actual funds entering the stock market are only about 2.8 trillion yuan, indicating a mismatch in tracking methods[4][42]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for household market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024[4][44]. Group 3: Misunderstandings about Investment Attributes - Unlike overseas experiences, China's excess savings since 2021 have a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation during real estate adjustments[6][63]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has significantly contributed to excess savings, with annual housing consumption dropping from 7.7 trillion yuan to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025[6][63]. - Areas with high excess savings are experiencing more pronounced downward pressure on housing prices, suggesting a greater urgency for asset reallocation among residents[6][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission has recently intensified efforts in reforming the REITs market, emphasizing the acceleration of commercial real - estate REITs pilot projects, and promoting the high - quality development of the market through measures such as enhancing system inclusiveness and flexibility [4]. - In the first half of December, the REITs market declined, hitting a new low since the second half of 2025, with most sectors in the red, and market trading volume and liquidity hitting new lows [4]. - The interest rate spread between REITs and dividend stocks turned negative, and the valuations of most REITs assets remained high, but the internal rate of return (IRR) generally increased [4]. - Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT will conduct offline inquiries on December 17th, and Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT will be listed on December 19th. The valuation difference of Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT compared to comparable REITs has widened [4]. - The expansion plan of AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT was approved, and three REITs will be lifted from the restricted - sale period in the second half of December. There is one new application and one new acceptance in the queue of REITs projects, and Jinjiang Group may issue hotel - related REITs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commercial Real - estate REITs Promising, Market Trading Volume Shrinking to the Bottom - **Policy Support**: The CSRC is promoting the implementation of commercial real - estate REITs pilot projects and enhancing system inclusiveness and flexibility [4][7][8]. - **Market Performance**: In the first half of December, the A - share market showed a slight upward trend, commodities rose, and long - term bond yields increased. The REITs market fell 1.8%, reaching a new low since the second half of 2025. Only IDC and public utilities showed slight increases, while transportation had the largest decline. The overall daily average turnover rate of REITs dropped to 0.35%, the lowest level of the year [4][16][21]. - **Dividend Yield and Valuation**: The dividend yields of equity - type and concession - type REITs were 4.48% and 8.86% respectively. The interest rate spread between equity - type REITs and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 2.64%, and the spread with CSI Dividend Index was - 0.65%. Most asset valuations remained high, with the P/NAV of equity - type REITs at 1.23X (69% quantile) and the P/FFO of concession - type REITs at 12.64X (41% quantile). The IRR generally increased [4][32][43]. 3.2 Zhonghe Clean Energy Inquiries Initiated, Anbo Logistics to Be Listed Soon - **Market Scale**: As of December 15, 2025, there were 77 listed REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a total market value of 216 billion yuan [57]. - **New REITs Progress**: Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT will conduct offline inquiries on December 17th, with an issue size of 300 million shares and a price range of 3.356 - 5.033 yuan per share. Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT will be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on December 19th, and the shares allocated to offline investors will be fully tradable on the listing day. The valuation difference of Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT compared to comparable REITs has widened. The offline subscription return rate of 100 million yuan for REITs from January to December 2025 was 3.49% [59][70][71]. 3.3 Jingneng Photovoltaic Expansion Plan Approved, Three REITs to Be Lifted from Restricted - Sale Period in the Second Half of the Month - **Important Announcements**: In the first half of December, 10 REITs announced dividend plans. Huaxia Runhe Youchao REIT's expansion was allocated to original holders, and AVIC Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT's expansion plan was approved by the holders' meeting [84][86]. - **Restricted - Sale Period Lifting**: In the second half of December, Guangfa Chengdu Gaotou Industrial Park REIT, Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT, and Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT will have part of their shares lifted from the restricted - sale period [86]. 3.4 One New Application, One New Acceptance, Jinjiang Group May Issue Hotel REITs - **Queue of Projects**: There are 12 initial public offering (IPO) projects and 3 expansion projects in the queue at the exchange. In the first half of December, the exchange accepted Ping An Xi'an Gaoke Industrial Park REIT, and Boshi Shandong Tietou Road and Bridge REIT submitted an application [91]. - **Tendering Information**: In the first half of December, the tendering information of 6 public REITs projects was updated. Jinjiang Group may issue hotel - related REITs, and Penghua Fund won the bid for Xuzhou Guotou Energy Group's infrastructure REITs project, while Jianxin Fund won the bid for Shuifa Group's water - related REITs project [94][97].

Group 1: Market Trends - The number of newly added private placement projects increased to 26 in the last two weeks, a 62.5% increase from the previous period[5] - The approval rate for projects remains at 100%, with 27 projects approved by the review committee, up 171.4% from the previous period[5] - There are currently 631 projects in the normal review stage, with 92 projects having received approval, an increase of 33.33%[5] Group 2: Fundraising Dynamics - Total fundraising amount in the last two weeks was 1.567 billion yuan, a decrease of 84.48% from the previous period[29] - The average benchmark discount rate for fundraising projects dropped to 9.81%, a decrease of 10.03%[29] - The average premium rate for bidding projects increased to 10.62%, up 8.77% from the previous period[39] Group 3: Project Analysis - Aopu Mai plans to acquire a preclinical CRO service company, with an estimated valuation of 1.452 billion yuan, reflecting a 56.62% increase in value[22] - Qide New Materials aims to raise up to 275 million yuan for expanding production capacity, with a PE ratio of 211.91X, placing it in the top 30% of industry valuations[23] - The average absolute return for newly unlocked bidding projects was 36.29%, a decrease of 41.07% from the previous period[29]

Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in demand, particularly in consumer spending, which has been significantly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies for trade-ins [2][3] - Cumulative retail sales growth for January to November 2025 is reported at 4.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, with automobile sales showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.0% [3][22] - Industrial value-added growth for November 2025 is at 6.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from October, indicating a divergence between traditional industries related to real estate and high-tech sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The report notes a rebound in inflation, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a 0.5 percentage point rise [3][5] - Fixed asset investment shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% for November, with real estate investment down 15.9% and infrastructure investment at 0.13% [3][7] - The report indicates that the overall economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3][23]

Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in consumer demand, particularly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies, indicating that sustained policy support is necessary to boost consumer spending [3] - Industrial value-added growth remains resilient at 6.0% year-on-year, although there is a clear divide between traditional industries, such as real estate, which are contracting, and high-tech industries that are supporting growth [3][4] - Inflation is showing signs of recovery, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first positive change in food prices this year [3][5] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment has seen a further decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, driven by downturns in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments [3][7] - The report notes that the economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending both declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with cumulative sales area down 11.1% year-on-year, indicating a persistent contraction since the second quarter of this year [3][10]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A total of 26 new private placement projects were added in the last two weeks, a 62.5% increase from the previous period[5] - The approval rate for projects remains at 100%, with 27 projects approved by the review committee, an increase of 171.4%[5] - There are currently 631 projects in the normal review stage, with 92 projects having received approval, an increase of 33.3%[5] Group 2: Fundraising Trends - The total fundraising amount in the last two weeks was 1.567 billion yuan, a decrease of 84.48% compared to the previous period[29] - The average benchmark discount rate for fundraising projects has dropped to 9.81%, a decrease of 10.03%[29] - The average participation rate in competitive bidding projects increased to 55.75%, up by 1.05 percentage points[29] Group 3: Performance Analysis - The average absolute return for newly unlocked competitive bidding projects was 36.29%, down by 41.07 percentage points[29] - The average market price discount rate for competitive projects was 18.38%, an increase of 1.76 percentage points[29] - The average absolute return for pricing projects was 107.39%, down by 20.09 percentage points[29] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected review progress, fluctuations in secondary market stock prices, and changes in the market environment for private placements[5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) [8][33] Core Insights - The report highlights that the construction industry is expected to stabilize in 2026, supported by local government debt management and the implementation of key national projects [7][14] - CRCC's new contract signing has shown marginal improvement, with a robust backlog of orders ensuring steady long-term growth [7][17] - The company's balance sheet is continuously improving, with enhanced cash flow and optimized accounts receivable aging structure [7][21] - The H-shares of CRCC are trading at a significant discount compared to A-shares, making them more attractive from a dividend yield perspective [7][25] - The report projects CRCC's net profit for 2025-2027 to be RMB 21.4 billion, RMB 21.7 billion, and RMB 22.2 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 3.1X, 3.2X, and 3.1X [7][29] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for CRCC are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1,137.99 billion - 2024: RMB 1,067.17 billion - 2025E: RMB 1,092.29 billion - 2026E: RMB 1,114.13 billion - 2027E: RMB 1,133.25 billion - The expected growth rates are 3.80%, -6.22%, 2.35%, 2.00%, and 1.72% respectively [3][30] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: RMB 26.10 billion - 2024: RMB 22.22 billion - 2025E: RMB 21.41 billion - 2026E: RMB 21.69 billion - 2027E: RMB 22.23 billion - The corresponding growth rates are -2.19%, -14.87%, -3.62%, 1.30%, and 2.51% [3][30] Market Data - As of December 15, 2025, CRCC's closing price is HKD 5.51, with a market capitalization of HKD 748.23 billion [4][8] - The H-shares are trading at a P/E ratio of 3.6X and a P/B ratio of 0.25X, indicating a significant discount compared to A-shares [7][25] Order and Contract Insights - CRCC's cumulative new contract amounts from 2021 to 2025Q3 are as follows: - 2021: RMB 2.82 trillion - 2022: RMB 3.25 trillion - 2023: RMB 3.29 trillion - 2024: RMB 3.04 trillion - 2025Q1-3: RMB 1.52 trillion - The new contract signing has shown a year-on-year growth of 10.39%, 15.09%, 1.51%, -7.80%, and 3.08% respectively [7][17]