Group 1 - The pricing power of 30Y government bonds has undergone three migrations, driven by the "asset shortage" and improvement in liquidity [1] - Before 2022, the focus on 30Y government bonds was low, with supply significantly lower than that of 10Y bonds, leading to weak liquidity and primarily driven by insurance companies [9][16] - From 2022 to 2024, the pricing power of 30Y government bonds shifted towards trading accounts, becoming a market "barometer" as liquidity improved and trading activity increased [18] Group 2 - The current situation of 30Y government bonds is characterized by a relief of the "asset shortage" and a mismatch in supply and demand structures [49] - The easing of the "asset shortage" is reflected in the steady rise of the Shanghai Composite Index and the continuous increase in dividend yields, indicating a shift in economic expectations [50][54] - The supply-demand contradiction arises from the mismatch between the long-term supply of government bonds and the short-term liquidity provided, leading to an oversupply of 30Y bonds [60] Group 3 - The pricing logic for 30Y government bonds has changed, with the market now requiring higher risk compensation due to the shift from a "supply-demand balance" to an "oversupply" situation [69] - The transition of pricing power may revert back to the allocation accounts as trading accounts face challenges in the current volatile market [74] - To alleviate the upward pressure on 30Y government bond yields, two main paths exist: adjusting prices to a more attractive range for allocation accounts and improving liquidity in the market [82]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on global sports brands, indicating a recovery in performance across most brands [4][5]. Core Insights - The latest financial quarter shows that most international sports brands exceeded expectations, with revenue growth for Deckers (+9.1%), Lululemon (+7.1%), Adidas (+3.0%), VF (+1.6%), and Nike (+1.1%), while Puma faced a decline of -15.3% [4][16]. - The guidance for the next financial quarter is cautious, with Nike expecting a low single-digit decline in revenue, while the overall annual performance outlook remains neutral to optimistic [4][17]. - Regional performance varies, with North America facing sales pressure, while the Greater China and European markets show signs of recovery [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview: Nike Revenue Growth and Adidas World Cup Preparations - Most brands reported better-than-expected performance, with significant revenue increases for Deckers, Lululemon, Adidas, VF, and Nike, while Puma continues to struggle [4][16]. 2. Nike: Strategic Adjustments and Revenue Forecast - Nike's revenue for FY26Q1 was $11.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, marking the first positive growth since FY24Q4. The company anticipates a low single-digit revenue decline for FY26Q2 [27][28]. 3. Adidas: Record Revenue and Upgraded Annual Guidance - Adidas reported a revenue increase of 3.0% in the latest quarter and has raised its annual performance guidance to a growth of approximately 9% [4][17]. 4. Lululemon: Exceeding Revenue and Profit Expectations - Lululemon's revenue grew by 7.1% in the latest quarter, with a notable 42.4% increase in the Greater China market [4][19]. 5. Puma: Continued Performance Pressure - Puma's revenue declined by 15.3%, with ongoing challenges affecting its profitability and market position [4][16]. 6. VF: Performance Exceeds Expectations - VF's revenue increased by 1.6%, but the company remains cautious about future guidance, expecting a decline in the next quarter [4][17]. 7. Deckers: Strong Performance from UGG and HOKA - Deckers reported a revenue increase of 9.1%, driven by strong sales from its UGG and HOKA brands [4][16]. 8. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on global supply chain manufacturers and outdoor sports brands, highlighting companies like Shenzhou International and Anta Sports as potential investment opportunities [5][18].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first 11 months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure reached 248,538 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%[6] Fiscal Trends - In November, broad fiscal expenditure showed improvement with a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a significant narrowing of 17.5 percentage points compared to October[7] - Broad fiscal revenue in November fell by 5.2% year-on-year, a further decline of 4.6 percentage points from October's -0.6%[7] Budget Completion and Support - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in November rose to 8%, up from 5.6% in October, indicating a year-end acceleration in spending[7] - The completion rate for broad fiscal revenue was 7%, consistent with the previous year and the five-year average[16] Factors Affecting Revenue - The decline in revenue is partly due to high base effects and ongoing weakness in land finance, with November's general public budget revenue showing a minimal change of -0.02% year-on-year[9] - Land finance continues to be a drag, with land transfer income remaining in negative growth territory[9] Future Fiscal Focus - Future fiscal priorities may include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, standardizing tax incentives, addressing local fiscal difficulties, and encouraging local debt management[3] - The emphasis will be on resolving issues related to local hidden debts and supplementing local financial resources[15] Expenditure Insights - General fiscal expenditure in November showed a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, but this was a significant improvement from October's decline of over 6 percentage points[29] - Health and technology-related expenditures saw notable increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.5% and 27.4%, respectively[29] Government Fund Performance - Government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, a significant recovery from previous declines[32] - The budget completion rate for government fund expenditure was 9.3%, below the five-year average of 10%[20]

| 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌 (%) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | (点) | 1日 | 5 目 | 1月 | | 上证指数 | 3870 | 1.19 | -2.56 | -0.77 | | | | | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | I | | | 2 . . | A | 1 | | | | | 14/ | | 今日重点推荐 2025 年 12 月 18 日 中国铁建 (01186) 深度: 报表优化, 分红提升, 估值修复 亮点一：2026 年行业投资维稳，总量有支撑。年初至今固定资产投资增速 放缓,基建、制造业、地产均呈现压力,展望 2026 年,随着地方政府化债 的有序推进，叠加中央"两重"项目实施，2026年投资有望维稳。 亮点二：公司新签订单边际改善，结构优化，在手订单充裕，保障长期稳 键增长。公司 2021-2024、2025Q1-3 累计新签合同额分别同比 +10.39%/+15.09%/+1.51%/-7.80%/+3.08%，2025 年前三季度新签订 单边际改善。 亮点三：资产负债表持续 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the investment in the industry is expected to stabilize in 2026, supported by the orderly debt resolution by local governments and the implementation of central "dual heavy" projects [1][15] - The company has shown marginal improvement in new contract signings, with a robust backlog ensuring long-term stable growth. The cumulative new contracts from 2021 to 2025Q1-3 show a mixed trend, with a notable improvement in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][15] - The company's balance sheet is continuously improving, with enhanced cash flow and optimized accounts receivable aging structure. Despite revenue and profit pressures, the company has implemented a three-year plan to control financial metrics, resulting in a significant reduction in cash outflow [3][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The fixed asset investment growth has slowed down this year, affecting infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate sectors. However, the outlook for 2026 suggests stabilization due to government initiatives [1][15] Company Performance - The company’s new contract amounts from 2021 to 2025Q1-3 are as follows: +10.39% in 2021, +15.09% in 2022, +1.51% in 2023, -7.80% in 2024, and +3.08% in 2025. The first three quarters of 2025 show a marginal improvement in new orders [2][15] - As of Q3 2025, the company has a backlog of contracts amounting to 8.10 trillion RMB, which is sufficient to support long-term growth [2][15] Financial Health - The company reported total revenue of 728.4 billion RMB in 2025Q1-3, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.8 billion RMB, down 5.6% year-on-year. The company is focusing on financial recovery through a three-year plan [3][15] - The aging structure of accounts receivable has improved, with the proportion of long-term receivables decreasing, indicating better cash flow management [3][15] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report notes a significant discount for H-shares compared to A-shares, with H-share PE (TTM) at 3.6X and PB at 0.25X, making it more attractive for dividends, with H-share dividend yield at 5.93% [3][15] - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 at 21.4 billion, 21.7 billion, and 22.3 billion RMB respectively, with a target market cap of 779 billion RMB based on a PE of 3.6X for 2026 [4][15]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company is a key player in the agricultural and animal husbandry industry in Xinjiang, with a comprehensive business model covering feed production, animal health, pig farming, and protein oil processing. It ranks among the top 20 in pig farming and feed production in China [4][17]. - Despite a downturn in the pig farming industry, the company managed to achieve a revenue of 13.61 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4%, and a net profit of 412 million yuan [4][24]. - The report emphasizes the dual catalysts of fundamental and policy factors driving the pig farming sector, suggesting a left-side investment opportunity as the industry undergoes capacity adjustments [6][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a state-owned enterprise under the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, established in 1993, and has expanded its operations to include various segments of the agricultural industry [17][18]. - It has a strong market position, being one of the eight designated producers of foot-and-mouth disease vaccines in China [4][17]. 2. Pig Farming Sector - The report notes that the pig farming sector is experiencing a decline in profitability, with the average price of pigs dropping from 15-16 yuan/kg at the beginning of 2025 to around 11-12 yuan/kg by December 2025 [32][39]. - The company is expected to face further losses in the coming quarters due to ongoing supply pressures and market conditions [41][42]. 3. Business Growth and Cost Optimization - The company is focusing on both internal growth through cost optimization and external growth via acquisitions, such as the recent purchase of Qiangdu Livestock [6][55]. - The report highlights that the company’s pig output has been steadily increasing, with a projected output of 302.85 million pigs in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [56][60]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 17.50 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 660 million yuan, and further growth expected in subsequent years [5][7]. - The report estimates a target market value of 13.68 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 38.3% from the current market capitalization [7][29]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the broader industry context, noting that the current cycle of capacity reduction in pig farming is expected to be more pronounced than in previous years, which may lead to a stabilization of prices in the future [9][47]. - The company’s strategic positioning and operational efficiencies are expected to enhance its competitive edge in a challenging market environment [9][55].

Overview - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, exceeding market expectations and nearing the "Sam Rule" threshold of 4.7%[1] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, slightly above the expected 50,000, while October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs[1][7] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%[1][10] Employment Dynamics - The rise in unemployment is attributed to temporary layoffs and an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising to 62.5%[2][11] - The October job losses were primarily due to the government's "deferred resignation" plan, impacting non-farm employment significantly[2][18] - Employment trends varied across sectors, with construction and healthcare showing improvements, while finance and information sectors remained weak[2][18] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2026 is uncertain and will depend on December's economic data[3] - Current unemployment data may be distorted, and the Fed's Chair Powell indicated that employment figures could be misleading[3] - Despite the rise in unemployment, retail performance in October was strong, suggesting resilience in consumer spending[3]

Group 1 - The global Fab market is expected to grow by 27% year-on-year in 2025, driven by demand from GPU/ASIC and consumer electronics orders [3][9][23] - The advanced process is in an expansion phase, significantly boosted by AI demand, with the Chinese high-end AI chip market projected to grow over 60% in 2026 [3][23][26] - Domestic Fab manufacturers are focusing on mature processes, benefiting from the recovery of the domestic market, with a projected share of over 75% in global mature process capacity additions by 2026 [3][46][53] Group 2 - Key companies to watch include SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Jinghong Integrated Circuit, which are positioned to benefit from local manufacturing and the expansion of production capacity [3][41][71] - The third phase of the National Big Fund has not yet entered large-scale project investments, but it is expected to become a capital expenditure increment for the Fab industry in 2026 [3][39][40] - The domestic supply chain is gradually proving itself, with companies like Cambrian and Huawei leading the way in local AI chip production and supply chain development [3][30][34]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The monetary policy in 2026 will continue to align with fiscal measures, supporting debt sustainability and fiscal health [2][12] - Interest rate cuts in 2026 may remain restrained due to reduced urgency from anti-involution trends, with a higher probability of one rate cut rather than two [2][12] - The international economic struggle will have financial implications, particularly for the internationalization of the RMB amid intensified US-China competition [2][12] Group 2: Misunderstandings about "Deposit Migration" - There are three main misunderstandings regarding "deposit migration": underestimating excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [3][14] - The potential scale of excess savings is estimated to exceed 9.4 trillion, indicating significant funds could enter the stock market [3][14] - The speed of funds entering the market may be underestimated due to reliance on non-bank deposit tracking, which does not accurately reflect the migration of resident funds [3][14] Group 3: Huahai Pharmaceutical (600521) Analysis - Huahai Pharmaceutical is a leading domestic producer of specialty APIs, with a strong focus on global formulation strategies [4][13] - The company has applied for over 70 domestic and international patents in the field of biopharmaceuticals, particularly in immunology and oncology [4][17] - The projected revenue for Huahai Pharmaceutical from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 8.632 billion, 9.413 billion, and 10.282 billion respectively, with a target market value indicating a potential upside of 30.04% [4][17]

Group 1: Aluminum vs. Copper in Air Conditioning - The shift from copper to aluminum in air conditioning systems is driven by the copper-aluminum price gap, energy efficiency standards upgrades, and refrigerant replacements, with microchannel technology becoming increasingly prevalent[3] - The competitive landscape for microchannel heat exchangers is dominated by three players: Sanhua, Mahler/Delphi, and Danfoss[3] - Sanhua's revenue growth has slowed, indicating a need for innovation and adaptation in the market[14] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion Developments - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to accelerate due to continuous technological breakthroughs and policy support, with significant project milestones achieved in 2025[19] - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to reach approximately $479.5 billion by 2029, with a total of 196 fusion devices expected by 2035[40][42] - Key investment opportunities in nuclear fusion include core supporting entities and high-value segments within the supply chain, such as superconducting magnets and power systems[46] Group 3: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is witnessing stable or potentially increasing core players due to cost reduction trends, with a focus on satellite manufacturing and launch services[3] - The domestic satellite constellation projects, such as G60 and GW, are set to significantly increase satellite launches, with G60 planning to deploy 1,296 satellites by the end of 2027 and 15,000 by 2030[60] - The market for satellite services and ground equipment is expected to dominate, accounting for over 90% of the commercial aerospace value chain[52]