行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 06 月 08 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -15% -7% 1% 9% 17% 25% 33% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 金属与材料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:黄金重 回 升 势 ，关 注权 益 板块 配 置机 会 》 2025-05-24 2 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观情 绪 回 暖 ，看 好基 本 金属 向 上修 复 》 2025-05-18 3 《 金 属 与 材 料 - 行 业 深 度 研 究:24&2 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - British American Tobacco focuses on expanding the Glo product line in the second half of the year, with expectations for revenue growth driven by innovative products [1] - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 1-2% for the fiscal year 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to rise by 1.5%-2.5% [1] - Despite a 9% year-on-year decline in industry sales, British American Tobacco has solidified its market share in the U.S. [1] - The electronic cigarette export value from China remained stable in April 2025, with a total export amount of $8.77 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.84% [4] Summary by Sections Emerging Industry - British American Tobacco's revenue for the first half of 2025 is better than expected, with strong performance in the Americas, Middle East, and Europe regions [1] - The modern oral tobacco product Velo is experiencing rapid growth, increasing its market share by 270 basis points to 14.3% [2] - Glo's market share has decreased by 90 basis points, primarily due to competition in Japan, but Glo Hilo's launch in Serbia shows promising results [2] Electronic Cigarettes - Vuse maintains its global value share leadership, but faces challenges from illegal products in the U.S. and Canada [3] - The company expects a double-digit revenue decline in the first half of the year, with improvements anticipated in the second half due to the launch of Vuse Ultra [3] - Long-term goals include a revenue growth target of 3-5% and adjusted operating profit growth of 4-6% by 2026 [3] Export Data - In the first four months of 2025, China's electronic cigarette exports totaled $3.242 billion, with the U.S. being the largest market, accounting for $334 million [4] - The UAE market has shown significant growth, surpassing Malaysia to become the fifth-largest destination for Chinese electronic cigarette exports [4] Investment Opportunities - Suggested companies to focus on include Smoore International, Yinghe Technology, and others in the vaping supply chain [5]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights an increase in infrastructure expectations in the western region, with significant opportunities emerging in the building materials sector [2][3] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize with government support, as indicated in the 2025 Government Work Report, which aims to promote a recovery in the real estate market [2][14] - The report identifies key projects that will drive demand for building materials, including the Three Gorges New Channel and the Mêdog Hydropower Station, which are expected to significantly boost cement demand [3][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.88%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) increased by 0.59% this week, with most sub-sectors showing positive returns [12] - Notable stock performances included Shandong Glass Fiber (+18.4%) and Quartz Shares (+14.1%) [12] Western Infrastructure Expectations - The report notes a significant increase in special bond issuance in central and western regions, with Sichuan (+162%), Chongqing (+35%), and Shaanxi (+1162%) showing remarkable growth [3][16] - Fixed asset investments in Tibet and Xinjiang also increased by 16.5% and 17.2% respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the region [3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks based on project involvement: Huaxin Cement, Xizang Tianlu, and Qingsong Jianhua, among others, which are expected to benefit from upcoming infrastructure projects [3][19] - The focus is on traditional building materials companies that are expected to see long-term value, as well as new energy materials that are likely to continue their growth trajectory [19] Building Materials Sub-Sector Tracking - Cement prices have shown a slight decline of 1.2% this week, with regional variations in price adjustments [17] - The glass market, particularly photovoltaic glass, is experiencing price drops due to weak demand, with significant inventory levels reported [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the stablecoin industry or Circle Core Insights - The global stablecoin market has a market capitalization exceeding $236.6 billion as of June 8, 2025, representing a growth of over 45 times since 2019, with expectations to reach a trillion-dollar scale in the future [3][15] - USDT and USDC dominate the stablecoin market, holding 64% and 25% of the market share respectively, indicating strong network effects and competitive barriers [4][20] - Regulatory frameworks are becoming clearer globally, with significant legislation such as the MiCA regulation in Europe and the GENIUS Act in the US, which are expected to accelerate the adoption of stablecoins [4][41] - Stablecoins are primarily used for cryptocurrency trading and DeFi activities but are increasingly penetrating the payment sector, offering advantages over traditional systems like SWIFT and ACH [4][28][31] Summary by Sections 1. Stablecoin Market Overview - Stablecoins are designed to maintain price stability by pegging their value to other assets, primarily fiat currencies [11] - The market has seen rapid growth, with stablecoins becoming a primary medium for trading on major platforms, accounting for 88% of Binance's trading volume as of June 3, 2025 [15][16] 2. Competitive Landscape - The stablecoin market is highly concentrated, with the top three stablecoins (USDT, USDC, and USDS) accounting for 92% of the market share [20] - Traditional financial institutions and governments are entering the stablecoin space, but the first-mover advantage of USDT and USDC remains significant [23][27] 3. Application Scenarios - Stablecoins are increasingly being adopted in payment systems, with transaction volumes exceeding $10.8 trillion in 2023, showing a 17% year-over-year growth [28][31] - The potential for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is significant, with estimates suggesting a market size in the hundreds of trillions of dollars [34][35] 4. Regulatory Developments - Major economies are establishing regulatory frameworks for stablecoins, enhancing clarity and compliance, which is expected to drive market growth [41][46] - The US GENIUS Act and the EU MiCA regulation are pivotal in shaping the future of stablecoin issuance and management [41][42] 5. Circle's Position - Circle is a leading compliant dollar stablecoin issuer, with USDC being the second-largest stablecoin by market capitalization at approximately $58.8 billion [5] - The company focuses on building a comprehensive financial infrastructure around USDC, enhancing its adoption through partnerships with major exchanges and financial institutions [5][50]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the Wind All A Index to determine the overall market environment and identify market trends [1][9][12] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the 20-day moving average (short-term) and the 120-day moving average (long-term) of the Wind All A Index 2. Compute the difference between the two moving averages: $ \text{Difference} = \text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA} $ 3. Evaluate the absolute value of the difference. If the absolute value is less than 3%, the market is considered to be in a consolidation phase [1][9][12] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's consolidation phase and provides a clear signal for timing decisions [1][9][12] - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries with medium-term growth potential and recommends allocation based on sectoral trends and macroeconomic factors [2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze macroeconomic factors and market sentiment 2. Identify sectors with potential for recovery or growth, such as "distressed reversal" sectors 3. Recommend specific industries, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and new consumption in the Hong Kong market, as well as technology sectors like consumer electronics [2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights for medium-term industry allocation, focusing on sectors with growth potential [2][3][10] - **Model Name**: TWO BETA Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying high-growth sectors, particularly in technology, and recommends allocation based on their performance trends [2][3][10] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Analyze the performance of high-beta sectors, such as technology and consumer electronics 2. Monitor the upward trend of specific industries, such as banking and gold stocks, to identify allocation opportunities [2][3][10] **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying high-growth sectors and provides a focused approach to sectoral allocation [2][3][10] - **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation indicators and short-term market trends [2][10][12] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate the PE and PB valuation levels of the Wind All A Index 2. Assess the relative position of these indicators within their historical ranges 3. Combine valuation analysis with short-term market trend signals to recommend an equity allocation level (e.g., 50% for absolute return products) [2][10][12] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to equity allocation, considering both valuation and market trends [2][10][12] Model Backtesting Results - **Timing System Model**: The moving average difference is 0.68%, with the absolute value remaining below 3%, indicating a consolidation phase [1][9][12] - **Position Management Model**: - PE valuation level: 60th percentile, indicating a medium level - PB valuation level: 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level - Recommended equity allocation: 50% [2][10][12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the REITs industry Core Insights - The Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission has proposed measures to enhance the quality and expansion of infrastructure REITs in the city, encouraging local enterprises to actively apply for project reserves [1][7] - The overall REITs market showed positive performance, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index increasing by 1.58% during the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.69 percentage points [2][17] - The total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 1,744 billion yuan, with 66 REITs issued as of June 6, 2025 [8] Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission has issued a notification to strengthen project reserve planning for infrastructure REITs, establishing a "green channel" for high-quality projects [1][7] Primary Market - As of June 6, 2025, the total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 1,744 billion yuan, with a total of 66 REITs issued [8] Market Performance - During the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025, the CSI REITs Total Return Index rose by 1.58%, while the REITs Total Index increased by 1.57% [2][17] - The leading performers included the China Merchants Highway REIT, which increased by 7.96% [2][17] Liquidity - The total trading volume of REITs increased, with a total trading amount (MA5) of 498 million yuan, up 4.6% from the previous week [3][37] - The largest REITs type by trading amount was transportation infrastructure, accounting for 32.4% of the total [3][37] Valuation - The report does not provide specific valuation metrics for the REITs industry

Group 1: Market Analysis of Trade Friction - The report reviews the impact of the US-China trade friction from 2018 to 2019, categorizing it into seven phases based on eight major events, highlighting the volatility in the market during these periods [1][9][12] - During the phase from May 29, 2018, to November 30, 2018, the market experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 17% [9][13] - Following a series of negotiations and agreements, the market rebounded significantly from December 1, 2018, to May 4, 2019, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 18.94% [9][13] Group 2: Domestic Industrial Production - The industrial production index has shown signs of recovery, with specific sectors such as methanol, high furnace production in Tangshan, polyester filament, and soda ash experiencing growth, while Shandong's independent refineries and tire production have declined [17][19] - The subway passenger volume in major cities has decreased, indicating a potential slowdown in urban mobility [17][18] Group 3: International Employment Trends - In May, the US non-farm employment figures showed a decline but were still above expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the forecast of 126,000 [29][30] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with expectations, while wage growth exceeded predictions with an average hourly wage increase of 0.4% [29][30] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: advancements in AI technology, recovery in consumer stocks, and the rise of undervalued dividends [4] - The consumer sector is highlighted as having low valuations, with potential for recovery driven by declining interest rates and policy support [4]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 跨月后，本周资金面维持均衡偏松，资金利率中枢有所下移，央行打破月 末公告买断式逆回购操作惯例，宣布 10000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，释放 流动性呵护信号，资金分层现象仍不明显。 央行前置买断式逆回购操作，如何理解？ 固收周度点评 20250608 证券研究报告 暖风再起，静待下行 政策暖风再起，短端表现较强，收益率曲线走陡 本周（6/3-6/6）债市有所回暖，短端明显强势，曲线走陡，背后有几点 驱动因素：一是月初资金面维持均衡宽松，央行超预期前置买断式逆回购 操作，释放重要信号，以及市场开始预期国债买卖适时重启，对短端品种 形成利好，机构抢跑；二是中美元首通话落地，中美贸易局势的演绎、以 及后续中美关税贸易谈判存在的不确定性，基本面逻辑整体或仍有利于债 市。 全周收益率走势来看，债市收益率普遍下行，短端表现好于长端。截至 6/6， 1Y、2Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率较上周分别下行 4.5BP、3.6BP、1.7BP、2.0BP 至 1.41%、1.43%、1.65%、1.88%。 流动性呵护之下，资金面均衡宽松 6 月 5 日，中国人民银行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告，此 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Municipal Development and Reform Commission has proposed measures to enhance the quality and expansion of infrastructure REITs in the city, encouraging local enterprises to actively apply for project reserves [1][7] - The total issuance scale of listed REITs reached 174.4 billion yuan, with 66 REITs issued as of June 6, 2025 [8] Market Performance - During the week of June 3 to June 6, 2025, the CSI REITs total return index increased by 1.58%, while the total REITs index rose by 1.57%. The property REITs index saw a gain of 0.85%, and the operating rights REITs index increased by 2.87% [2][17] - The total REITs index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.69 percentage points and the CSI All Bond index by 1.41 percentage points, but underperformed the Nanhua Commodity index by 0.24 percentage points [2][17] Liquidity - The overall trading activity of REITs increased, with a total trading volume (MA5) of 498 million yuan, up 4.6% from the previous week. The trading volumes for property and operating rights REITs were 270 million yuan and 228 million yuan, respectively [3][37] - The largest trading volume among REIT types was in transportation infrastructure, accounting for 32.4% of the total [3][37] Correlation - The correlation coefficients between the CSI REITs index and major indices over the past 20 days show a positive correlation with the CSI 300 index (0.583) and a negative correlation with the CSI All Bond index (-0.053) [29][30] - The internal correlation among different REIT categories indicates a strong relationship between industrial park REITs and warehouse logistics REITs (0.814) [31]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank with a target price of 9.59 CNY, corresponding to a 0.91x PB for 2025 [5]. Core Views - Changshu Bank focuses on serving small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, emphasizing a "small and scattered" approach to deepen its presence in the inclusive finance sector [1][2]. - The bank benefits from a strong net interest income, with significant potential for improvement in non-interest income [2]. - The bank's asset quality is robust, supported by prudent risk control and sufficient provisioning, which enhances its ability to maintain stable dividends and internal capital replenishment [2][4]. - The macroeconomic policies promoting consumption and rural development are expected to favorably impact the bank's future growth [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Advantages - Jiangsu Province, where Changshu Bank is located, shows strong economic growth, with a GDP of 13.7 trillion CNY in 2024, ranking second nationally with a growth rate of 6.85% [12][15]. - Changshu City is strategically positioned in the Yangtze River Delta, contributing significantly to regional industrial chains and financial activities [2][31]. 2. Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is primarily derived from net interest income, with projections indicating a net profit growth rate of 12.67%, 12.60%, and 12.17% for 2025-2027 [4]. - The bank's financial metrics for 2025 include an expected operating income of 117 billion CNY and a net profit of 43 billion CNY [4]. 3. Business Strategy - Changshu Bank has established a broad network of branches, with 170 branches as of 2024, focusing on local markets while expanding into other regions through village and town banks [49][50]. - The bank's strategy includes leveraging its "investment management bank" qualifications to acquire smaller banks, facilitating future credit business expansion [2][4]. 4. Future Outlook - The bank's digital transformation strategy aims to enhance its operational efficiency and service delivery, with a focus on small and micro-loans [44][45]. - The bank's commitment to supporting rural and small business financing aligns with national policies aimed at promoting economic development in these sectors [51].