Workflow
Great Wall Securities
icon
Search documents
阿特斯(688472):海外光储订单优质,经营表现稳健
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-26 11:34
大储羽翼丰满,优质订单支撑利润体量。公司储能业务 25 年上半年实现出货 约 3.1GWh,同比增长 19.23%,贡献营收约 44.3 亿元,同比+8.55%,其中 二季度储能交付 2.2GWh,环比增长超 140%,公司储能订单优质,单价高、 盈利好,叠加海外拉货节奏旺盛,测算 Q2 储能板块毛利率仍维持在 30%的 水平区间,对应单位盈利约为 0.3 元/Wh,继续领跑行业。截至报告期末, 阿特斯储能科技(e-STORAGE)已签署合同在手订单金额为 30 亿美元,在 美洲、澳洲、欧洲均有新签大规模项目,但考虑到主力市场当地补贴政策、 贸易变化的影响,保守调整全年出货预期至 7-9GWh,预计 25Q3 储能出货 2.1-2.3GWh。 坚持利润优先原则,组件业务限产保价。利润优先是公司在光伏领域的首要 经营原则,报告期内,公司出货组件 14.8GW,同比基本持平,贡献营业收 入约 143.62 亿元,同比-7.34%,对应 Q2 组件出货约 7.9GW,环比增长约 15%,得益于公司组件在北美市场出货量、市占率的增长韧性,测算 Q2 公 司组件毛利率明显改善,综合单瓦利润约为 0.02 元。展望后续, ...
兆易创新(603986):25Q2归母净利润环比+45%,利基型DRAM涨价持续至下半年
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-26 11:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 4.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year. This growth is primarily driven by government subsidy policies stimulating consumer demand and the AI wave boosting demand in sectors such as PCs, servers, and automobiles [2][12]. - The company is actively expanding its AI server market and has launched customized storage projects, with expectations for high single-digit revenue growth annually in the medium to long term [4][5]. - The company is positioned as the second-largest global market share holder in Nor Flash and eighth in MCU, with rapid growth in self-developed DRAM expected to yield net profits of 1.568 billion, 2.084 billion, and 2.587 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported total revenue of 5.761 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -29.1%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 13.788 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.2% [1][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 161 million yuan, with a projected increase to 2.587 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 24.2% [1][16]. - The company's latest diluted EPS is projected to grow from 0.24 yuan in 2023 to 3.90 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in earnings per share [1][16]. Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the storage chip revenue was 2.845 billion yuan, accounting for 69% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38.50% [3][12]. - The company’s DRAM gross margin has recovered to double digits due to supply shortages in the niche DRAM market, driven by the exit of overseas manufacturers [3][4]. - The microcontroller segment saw a revenue increase of 19% year-on-year, contributing 9.59 billion yuan to total revenue, with a gross margin of 37.31% [3][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on AI-driven product development, with plans to introduce customized storage solutions for AI PCs and smart devices by 2026 [4][5]. - The company has established a strong product matrix across MCU, storage, sensors, and analog products, which is expected to drive future growth [5][6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning in the semiconductor industry, emphasizing its competitive advantages and growth potential in the AI and storage markets [4][5].
吉宏股份(002803):25H1业绩超预期,“跨境电商+包装”双轮驱动增长
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-26 11:19
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][16]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 3.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 118 million yuan, up 63.27% year-on-year [2][3]. - The growth is driven by the dual engines of "cross-border e-commerce and packaging," with the cross-border e-commerce segment achieving revenue of 2.116 billion yuan, a 52.91% increase, and net profit of 55 million yuan, up 97.67% [2][3]. - The company has a strong market position in the Chinese paper-based fast-moving consumer goods packaging sector, benefiting from the rapid growth of instant retail, which has led to a surge in demand for food-grade packaging [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company expects revenue of 6.695 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.5%. However, a decline of 17.4% is projected for 2024 [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 345 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 87.6% year-on-year, followed by a decline of 47.3% in 2024 [1][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.4% in 2023, decreasing to 8.4% in 2024, and gradually recovering to 12.9% by 2027 [1][9]. Dividend and Globalization Strategy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.80 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 80 million yuan, emphasizing its commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - The recent listing of H-shares in Hong Kong is expected to enhance the company's global strategy, facilitating the expansion of its cross-border e-commerce and packaging businesses [3].
国能日新(301162):主业务保持强势,创新业务助力提升未来业绩上限
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-26 10:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company's main business remains strong, with innovative business segments contributing to future performance growth. The report projects revenue growth from CNY 6.95 billion in 2025 to CNY 11.70 billion by 2027, with net profit expected to rise from CNY 1.33 billion to CNY 1.79 billion during the same period [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of CNY 321 million, a year-on-year increase of 43.15%, and a net profit of CNY 46 million, up 32.48% [1]. - The projected revenue and net profit figures for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2025E: Revenue CNY 6.95 billion, Net Profit CNY 1.33 billion - 2026E: Revenue CNY 8.95 billion, Net Profit CNY 1.60 billion - 2027E: Revenue CNY 11.70 billion, Net Profit CNY 1.79 billion [9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10.4% in 2025 to 12.0% in 2027 [9]. Business Segment Performance - The company's power prediction service has seen significant growth, with revenue reaching CNY 205.11 million, a 55.14% increase year-on-year, accounting for 63.96% of total revenue [2]. - The revenue from the company's grid control and renewable energy management systems faced challenges, with a decline in revenue for the smart control products by 4.56% to CNY 51.02 million, representing 15.91% of total revenue [3]. - Innovative business segments, including power trading and virtual power plants, are contributing to revenue growth, with total revenue from these segments at CNY 16.16 million, a 1.53% increase year-on-year [9].
麦加芯彩(603062):新能源涂料业绩高增,工业涂料平台企业初具雏形
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-26 10:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [4][18]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth in the new energy coatings sector, with a notable increase in industrial coatings platform development [1][2]. - The strong performance in the wind power sector and resilience in the container coatings market are key drivers of the company's growth [2][3]. - The company is expanding into new business areas such as shipbuilding, offshore engineering, and photovoltaic coatings, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [3][9]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 1,141 million yuan in 2023, with projections of 2,139 million yuan in 2024 and 2,006 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -17.7%, 87.6%, and -6.3% respectively [1][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 167 million yuan in 2023 to 211 million yuan in 2024 and 265 million yuan in 2025, with corresponding growth rates of -35.8%, 26.3%, and 25.7% [1][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 7.9% in 2023 to 14.3% by 2027 [1][10]. Business Segments - The new energy segment achieved revenue of 280 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 70% and a gross margin of 36.09% [2]. - The marine equipment segment generated revenue of 604 million yuan, with a gross margin of 17.62%, indicating stable performance in the container business despite market challenges [2]. - The company is actively pursuing new business opportunities in ship coatings, photovoltaic coatings, and offshore wind power coatings, with significant progress in certifications and sales [3][9]. Production Capacity and Strategy - The company has completed the construction of its Zhuhai production base, which has a capacity of 70,000 tons, aimed at serving the South China and Southeast Asia markets [8]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity further with a new project in Nantong, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, supporting its industrial coatings platform strategy [8].
金风科技(002202):25H1风机制造盈利显著修复,风电服务出海趋势加速
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-26 06:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [5][19]. Core Views - The company's wind turbine manufacturing profitability has significantly improved, with a notable increase in the delivery of large models. The overall gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 15.35% and 5.83%, respectively, showing a recovery in manufacturing profitability [2][10]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total of 51.81 GW of orders as of June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.58%. This includes 7.36 GW of overseas orders, indicating a strong international market presence [3][10]. - The report highlights the acceleration of wind power services overseas, with a significant increase in revenue from wind power services, which grew by 21.99% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][9]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 72.68 billion yuan, 80.49 billion yuan, and 88.22 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.01 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 4.10 billion yuan [1][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 0.71 yuan in 2025 to 0.97 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [1][10]. - The report notes a significant increase in sales of wind turbines and components, with revenue reaching 218.52 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 71.15% [2].
债市周观察:美联储放鸽有利于四季度国内实施总量货币政策
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-26 02:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current bond market is in a headwind period, with the "slow bull in stocks and non - continuous sharp decline in bonds" state likely to continue due to liquidity and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury yield may face two - stage pressure levels: 1.80% and 1.90%. However, the resistance at 1.80% and the difficulty of breaking through 1.90% are relatively high [2][22]. - If three out of four conditions are met in the second half of this year, the probability of the domestic central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is very high. Currently, three conditions are gradually being met, and if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, the probability of the People's Bank of China synchronously lowering the OMO rate in the fourth quarter may increase. Then, the bond market will shift from a headwind period to a tailwind period [3][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest - rate Bond Data Review for Last Week - **Funds Rate**: In the week of August 18th, the funds rate first rose and then fell. DR001, R001, DR007, and FR007 all showed fluctuations in the same period [8]. - **Open - market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase volume reached 2.08 trillion yuan, with a total maturity of 711.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 1.37 trillion yuan, which is a relatively large net injection this month [8]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion range of the Sino - US bond yield spread has shown differentiation. The inversion range of the 6 - month interest rate spread has slightly increased, while the inversion range of the 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads has slightly decreased [13]. - **Term Spread**: The term spread of Chinese bonds remained unchanged, while that of US bonds slightly widened. The 10 - 2 - year term spread of Chinese bonds was 35BP, and that of US bonds was 58BP [15]. - **Interest - rate Term Structure**: The yield curve of Chinese bonds changed little, while that of US bonds shifted downward. The yield of Chinese bonds from 3 - month to 1 - year decreased by 2BP, and that from 5 - to 10 - year decreased by 1BP; the overall yield of US bonds decreased by more than 5BP [16]. 3.2 High - frequency Real - estate Data Tracking - **First - tier Cities**: In the week of August 22nd, the commercial housing transactions in first - tier cities were in a low - level oscillation state. The daily average transaction area was 57,500 square meters, and the daily average transaction volume was 532 units. The market fluctuated significantly, with the highest point on August 20th and the lowest on August 24th [25]. - **Ten Major Cities**: The commercial housing transaction data of ten major cities rebounded compared with last week, with an average daily transaction area of about 103,700 square meters, an increase of about 20,000 square meters per day compared with last week [25]. - **30 Large and Medium - sized Cities**: The commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The daily average transaction area was about 220,000 square meters, and the daily average transaction volume was about 2,566 units. The transaction area and volume reached the weekly peak on August 22nd [25].
美迪凯(688079):光学半导体领军企业,产品矩阵进入收获期
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-25 13:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the optical semiconductor industry, with its product matrix entering a harvest phase [1][2]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in semiconductor processes, enhancing its product offerings and market potential [2][38]. - The company is expected to improve its profitability gradually, with projected net profits turning positive by 2025 [8][25]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 321 million yuan in 2023 to 1.4 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 40% [1]. - The net profit is expected to shift from a loss of 84 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 266 million yuan in 2027 [1]. - The company's EPS is forecasted to improve from -0.21 yuan in 2023 to 0.65 yuan in 2027 [1]. Business Development - The company has a stable and clear shareholding structure, with significant stock option and restricted stock incentive plans to boost employee motivation [14][22]. - The company has developed advanced packaging technologies, such as TGV technology, to meet the growing demands of AI development [7][8]. - The company has expanded its product matrix to include various optical semiconductor solutions, which have already passed customer certifications and entered mass production [2][38]. Market Position - The company has established a strong presence in the semiconductor optical packaging substrate and precision processing services, with partnerships with major clients like Sony and Canon [38]. - The company is actively optimizing its business and revenue structure, aiming to enhance its market share and brand recognition [8][25].
江波龙(301308):25Q2扣非净利润环比+215.9%,看好存储价格回暖+企业级存储订单持续放量
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-25 13:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Jiangbolong (301308.SZ) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in storage prices and a continuous increase in enterprise-level storage orders, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit [1][2] - The embedded storage business is projected to continue its growth trajectory, while the SSD business is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of enterprise-level storage [2][3] - The global AIGC wave and the "Digital China" initiative are expected to provide new growth momentum for the storage market, positioning the company as a leading independent storage manufacturer in China [4] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 10,125 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.6%. The projected revenue for 2024A is 17,464 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 72.5% [1][15] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2024A, reaching 499 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 160.2% [1][15] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -13.0% in 2023A to 7.3% in 2024A, and further to 12.6% in 2025E [1][15] Business Segments - The embedded storage segment is expected to generate revenue of 84.25 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 48% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 17.45% [2] - The SSD segment is projected to generate revenue of 41.47 billion yuan in 2024, representing 24% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 15.93% [2] - The enterprise-level storage business saw a revenue increase of 138.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating strong demand and successful integration into major internet companies' supply chains [3][4] Market Outlook - The cessation of Micron's mobile NAND product development is expected to create new growth opportunities in the domestic consumer NAND market, potentially leading to price recovery [3] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for storage solutions driven by advancements in technology and increasing digitalization [4]
蓝特光学(688127):25年H1业绩同比高增,微棱镜与车载光学驱动成长
Great Wall Securities· 2025-08-25 12:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][19]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 52.54%, driven by the demand for micro-prisms and automotive optics [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 35.98%, reflecting a year-on-year improvement of 4.38 percentage points, while the net profit margin increased by 5.09 percentage points to 18.17% [2]. - The company is benefiting from a diversified product matrix, with key products such as optical prisms, glass wafers, and glass aspheric lenses seeing revenue growth due to expanding applications in consumer electronics, automotive intelligent driving, and optical communications [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections show a strong upward trend, with expected revenues of 754 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 2,831 million yuan by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.4% [1]. - The net profit is projected to grow from 180 million yuan in 2023 to 567 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 30.6% [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 11.0% in 2023 to 19.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [1]. Business Expansion and Market Opportunities - The company is actively exploring demand in multiple downstream sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive intelligent driving, and optical communications, which are expected to drive growth [3]. - The demand for optical components is anticipated to continue expanding due to rapid developments in consumer electronics, automotive, and semiconductor sectors, as well as emerging fields like artificial intelligence and high-speed optical communication [3][8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic partnerships with major clients, which are expected to support stable growth in the glass wafer business as technology applications evolve [3].