截止上周，截止上周，32 只主题 ETF 的平均周涨跌幅为-0.32%。其中大盘风 格 ETF 平均周涨跌幅为-0.45%，中小盘风格 ETF 平均周涨跌幅为-0.22%。从 成交量来看，我们跟踪的主题 ETF 总成交额为 314.80 亿元，比前周变化-41.92 亿元。其中，大盘风格 ETF 成交额为 134.30 亿元，变化-24.53 亿元；中小 盘风格 ETF 的成交额为 180.50 亿元，变化-17.39 亿元。 统计综合和行业主题下最具代表性的 ETF 表现。从收益来看，综合类 ETF 涨 跌互现，其中位列前三的 ETF 为 1000ETF、500ETF、800ETF，涨跌幅分别为 0.87%、0.57%、-0.50%。位列最后三位的 ETF 为创业板 50、深 100ETF、创业 板，涨跌幅分别为-1.89%、-1.56%、-1.10%。 行业主题类 ETF 涨跌互现，其 中位列前三的 ETF 为生物医药、军工龙头、军工 ETF，涨跌幅分别为 2.11%、 1.96%、1.85%。位列最后三位的 ETF 为新汽车、新能车、有色 ETF，涨跌幅 分别为-4.70%、-4.68%、-2.34%。 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 06 月 03 日 固定收益研究 相关研究 1.《九月债券投资展望》2024-08-30 2.《债市周观察（08.12-08.18）——短期内较难有资 本利得空间》2024-08-19 3.《债市周观察（08.05-08.11）——回调仍在持续， 但卖出是阶段性的》2024-08-12 债市周观察（5.26-6.1）——蛰伏 5 月制造业 PMI 低位修复，但仍处于收缩区间。5 月 PMI 录得 49.5%，较 上月小幅回升 0.5 个百分点。其中，生产指数环比上涨 0.9 个百分点，新 订单指数环比回升 0.6 个百分点。当月，中美关税摩擦显现阶段性缓和迹 象并达成临时性经贸协定，抢出口效应得以延续，但 PMI 整体读数仍低于 荣枯线且增幅不及预期，显示修复动能仍然不足。 上周关税局势再生变数，不确定性陡然加剧。5 月 28 日，美国国际贸易法 院裁定禁止执行特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税的行 政令；29 日，联邦巡回上诉法院批准政府请求，暂缓执行该禁令；同日， 位于首都华盛顿的哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院就特朗普政府依据《国际紧 急经济权力法 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 32.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, with adjusted EBITDA of 6.434 billion yuan, up 7.6%, and adjusted net profit of 4.580 billion yuan, up 4.4% [1]. - The average daily active users (DAU) reached a historical high of 408 million, with a DAU/MAU ratio of 57.3%, indicating strong user engagement [2]. - The company’s AI technology, Keling AI, has shown significant commercial progress, generating over 150 million yuan in revenue in Q1 2025, with a user base exceeding 22 million [3]. - The overseas business has achieved a revenue growth of 32.7% year-on-year, reaching 1.3 billion yuan, and has turned operationally profitable for the first time in a single quarter [4][8]. Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 141.783 billion yuan, 155.508 billion yuan, and 168.430 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding adjusted net profits of 17.248 billion yuan, 21.693 billion yuan, and 26.199 billion yuan [1][8]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 24.73% in 2024, decreasing slightly to 20.61% by 2027 [1]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decline from 33.40 in 2023 to 8.15 by 2027, indicating potential undervaluation as earnings grow [1].

Economic Indicators - In April 2025, the PPI decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, marking 31 consecutive months of negative growth[1] - The CPI showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, remaining around 0% for 25 months[1] - The GDP deflator index has been negative for 8 consecutive quarters, setting a historical record for duration[1] Price Trends - Food prices, including pork, have been declining, with pork CPI turning positive since April 2024, but overall support for CPI remains weak[1][2] - The decline in PPI is broad and significant, with both production and living materials experiencing substantial price drops[2] Consumption and Policy Recommendations - Social retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April 2025, but the growth rate has decreased compared to the previous month[3] - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to enhance residents' income, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, and stabilize property and stock market incomes[3] - The report suggests implementing more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, including government-led investments in new infrastructure and urban renewal[2] Market Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on defensive sectors, "expanding domestic demand," and self-sufficiency in technology[6][7] - The report highlights the importance of supporting struggling enterprises and enhancing financing to stabilize foreign trade[5][6] Risks - Potential risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, underperformance of listed companies, geopolitical conflicts, and insufficient consumer recovery[8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is a leading domestic solid-state laser manufacturer, expanding its product spectrum to unlock significant growth potential [10]. - The demand for laser micro-machining is driven by WLG optical innovations and advanced packaging, with sustained high growth in niche markets [2]. - The supply side is characterized by a high-barrier market structure, with accelerated domestic substitution processes [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from 368 million yuan in 2023 to 903 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.9% [1]. - The net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 4 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 131 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from -0.5% in 2023 to 10.6% in 2027 [1]. Demand Side Analysis - The solid-state laser market is experiencing continuous high growth due to its applications in precision micro-machining, particularly in the semiconductor sector [2]. - WLG technology is a critical innovation in the optical field, enhancing laser processing demand in consumer electronics and advanced packaging [2]. - The semiconductor capital expenditure is expected to rise, driven by AI demand, positioning advanced packaging as a new engine for laser processing demand [2]. Supply Side Analysis - The domestic laser industry is evolving towards high power, high precision, and intelligent manufacturing, with solid-state lasers playing a crucial role in micro-machining [3]. - The domestic supply chain is growing, accelerating the process of localization and substitution in the laser market [3]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 51 million yuan, 80 million yuan, and 131 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.86 yuan [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 86.5x in 2025 to 34.0x in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [1].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Transactional Index Fund Capital Flow Weekly Report [1] - Data Date: May 19 - May 23, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Jin Ling [1] - Report Date: May 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Domestic Passive Stock Funds - **Comprehensive Category**: - Funds like Shanghai Composite 50 had a scale of 159.456 billion yuan, a weekly decline of 0.09%, and a net capital outflow of 912 million yuan; CSI 300 had a scale of 983.449 billion yuan, a decline of 0.04%, and an outflow of 2.504 billion yuan; CSI 500 had a scale of 140.12 billion yuan, a decline of 0.81%, and an outflow of 624 million yuan; CSI 1000 had a scale of 116.917 billion yuan, a decline of 1.09%, and an outflow of 1.163 billion yuan; ChiNext Index had a scale of 126.448 billion yuan, a decline of 0.79%, and an outflow of 1.876 billion yuan; STAR Market and ChiNext 50 had a scale of 32.965 billion yuan, a decline of 0.94%, and an outflow of 59 million yuan; STAR 50 had a scale of 181.221 billion yuan, a decline of 1.28%, and an inflow of 1.227 billion yuan; STAR 100 had a scale of 25.701 billion yuan, a decline of 1.28%, and an inflow of 237 million yuan; STAR 200 had a scale of 547 million yuan, a decline of 1.31%, and no net inflow; A50 had a scale of 36.101 billion yuan, an increase of 0.24%, and an outflow of 741 million yuan; A500 had a scale of 198.099 billion yuan, a decline of 0.10%, and an outflow of 4.363 billion yuan; Hang Seng Index had a scale of 6.723 billion yuan, an increase of 0.38%, and an inflow of 14 million yuan; Hang Seng China Enterprises Index had a scale of 915 million yuan, an increase of 0.71%, and an outflow of 1 million yuan; Others had a scale of 129.449 billion yuan, a decline of 0.20%, and an outflow of 1.715 billion yuan [4]. - **Industry - Theme Category**: - Big Technology funds had a scale of 216.688 billion yuan, a decline of 1.56%, and an outflow of 375 million yuan; Big Finance had a scale of 128.483 billion yuan, a decline of 1.15%, and an inflow of 1.136 billion yuan; Big Health had a scale of 100.161 billion yuan, an increase of 2.41%, and an outflow of 4.06 billion yuan; Big Manufacturing had a scale of 72.818 billion yuan, a decline of 1.03%, and an inflow of 2.928 billion yuan; Big Consumption had a scale of 56.089 billion yuan, a decline of 0.09%, and an outflow of 45.5 million yuan; Big Cycle had a scale of 21.416 billion yuan, an increase of 0.35%, and an inflow of 137 million yuan; Public Utilities had a scale of 6.614 billion yuan, a decline of 0.05%, and an outflow of 6.5 million yuan; Carbon Neutrality had a scale of 13.051 billion yuan, an increase of 0.21%, and an outflow of 9.8 million yuan; State - owned Enterprise Reform had a scale of 61 million yuan, a decline of 0.68%, and no net inflow; Others had a scale of 74.2 million yuan, an increase of 0.24%, and an outflow of 200,000 yuan [4]. - **Style - Strategy Category**: - Dividend funds had a scale of 59.877 billion yuan, an increase of 0.90%, and an outflow of 56.9 million yuan; Growth had a scale of 7.306 billion yuan, a decline of 0.48%, and an inflow of 1.1 million yuan; Value had a scale of 3.308 billion yuan, an increase of 0.18%, and an outflow of 300,000 yuan; Dividend Low - Volatility had a scale of 43.535 billion yuan, an increase of 0.59%, and an inflow of 52.9 million yuan; Quality had a scale of 1.332 billion yuan, an increase of 0.27%, and an outflow of 30,000 yuan; Low - Volatility had a scale of 25.5 million yuan, a decline of 0.27%, and no net inflow; Others had a scale of 11.1 million yuan, a decline of 0.14%, and no net inflow [4]. - **Enterprise - Nature and Region Category**: - China Special Valuation had a scale of 51.633 billion yuan, an increase of 0.20%, and an outflow of 78.3 million yuan; Regional funds had a scale of 4.342 billion yuan, a decline of 0.07%, and an outflow of 300,000 yuan [4]. Group 3: Overseas - Related Funds - **Comprehensive Category**: - Nasdaq 100 had a scale of 78.421 billion yuan, a decline of 1.22%, and an outflow of 994 million yuan; S&P 500 had a scale of 20.837 billion yuan, a decline of 0.92%, and an outflow of 60 million yuan; Dow Jones had a scale of 1.708 billion yuan, a decline of 1.18%, and an outflow of 60 million yuan; German DAX had a scale of 975 million yuan, an increase of 1.19%, and an inflow of 44 million yuan; French CAC40 had a scale of 601 million yuan, an increase of 1.14%, and no net inflow; Nikkei 225 had a scale of 3.611 billion yuan, a decline of 0.41%, and an outflow of 8.2 million yuan; Tokyo Stock Price Index had a scale of 771 million yuan, an increase of 0.69%, and an outflow of 5.6 million yuan; Saudi Arabia had a scale of 540 million yuan, a decline of 1.86%, and an inflow of 6.2 million yuan; Hang Seng Index had a scale of 19.174 billion yuan, an increase of 0.45%, and an outflow of 7.7 million yuan; Hang Seng China Enterprises Index had a scale of 12.002 billion yuan, an increase of 0.54%, and an outflow of 6.9 million yuan; Others had a scale of 3.713 billion yuan, an increase of 0.10%, and an outflow of 11.5 million yuan [5]. - **Industry - Theme Category**: - Hong Kong Stock Technology had a scale of 92.609 billion yuan, a decline of 1.18%, and an outflow of 3.8 million yuan; Chinese Internet had a scale of 45.35 billion yuan, a decline of 1.13%, and an outflow of 25.4 million yuan; Hong Kong Stock Medical had a scale of 27.231 billion yuan, an increase of 5.49%, and an outflow of 239 million yuan; Hong Kong Stock Consumption had a scale of 968 million yuan, an increase of 0.04%, and an outflow of 9.8 million yuan; Others had a scale of 16.931 billion yuan, a decline of 0.95%, and an inflow of 6.2 million yuan [5]. - **Style - Strategy Category**: - Dividend had a scale of 1.269 billion yuan, an increase of 2.40%, and an inflow of 10.9 million yuan; Dividend Low - Volatility had a scale of 77.7 million yuan, an increase of 0.95%, and an inflow of 1.8 million yuan [5]. Group 4: Bond and Commodity Funds - **Bond Funds**: - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: 30 - year bonds had a scale of 8.969 billion yuan, an increase of 0.28%, and an inflow of 821 million yuan; 10 - year bonds had a scale of 4.09 billion yuan, an increase of 0.16%, and an inflow of 113 million yuan; 5 - 10 - year bonds had a scale of 38.952 billion yuan, an increase of 0.18%, and an inflow of 365 million yuan; 5 - year bonds had a scale of 6.948 billion yuan, an increase of 0.09%, and an inflow of 66 million yuan; Bonds under 5 - year had a scale of 22.725 billion yuan, an increase of 0.02%, and an outflow of 195 million yuan; Others had a scale of 371 million yuan, an increase of 0.10%, and an outflow of 2.8 million yuan [6]. - **Credit Bonds**: Medium - to - high - grade bonds had a scale of 10.916 billion yuan, an increase of 0.12%, and an inflow of 893 million yuan; Urban Investment Bonds had a scale of 13.817 billion yuan, an increase of 0.18%, and an inflow of 328 million yuan; Short - term Commercial Papers had a scale of 29.341 billion yuan, an increase of 0.03%, and an inflow of 1.707 billion yuan [6]. - **Convertible Bonds**: Had a scale of 43.859 billion yuan, an increase of 0.07%, and an outflow of 688 million yuan [6]. - **Commodity Funds**: - Gold had a scale of 70.887 billion yuan, an increase of 3.78%, and an outflow of 563 million yuan; Soybean Meal had a scale of 4.193 billion yuan, an increase of 0.84%, and an inflow of 11 million yuan; Non - ferrous Metals had a scale of 745 million yuan, a decline of 0.36%, and an inflow of 1.5 million yuan; Energy and Chemicals had a scale of 293 million yuan, a decline of 1.75%, and an outflow of 3 million yuan [6]. Group 5: Index - Enhanced Funds - Index - enhanced funds related to Shanghai Composite 50 had a scale of 76 million yuan, a decline of 0.38%, and no net inflow; CSI 300 had a scale of 3.209 billion yuan, an increase of 0.13%, and an outflow of 1.5 million yuan; CSI 500 had a scale of 1.978 billion yuan, a decline of 0.50%, and an outflow of 500,000 yuan; CSI 1000 had a scale of 656 million yuan, a decline of 0.97%, and an outflow of 70,000 yuan; ChiNext Index had a scale of 469 million yuan, a decline of 0.92%, and an outflow of 50,000 yuan; STAR Market and ChiNext 50 had a scale of 62 million yuan, a decline of 1.38%, and no net inflow; STAR 50 had a scale of 935 million yuan, a decline of 1.63%, and an inflow of 1.5 million yuan; STAR 100 had a scale of 317 million yuan, a decline of 1.49%, and an inflow of 10,000 yuan; Others had a scale of 194 million yuan, a decline of 0.70%, and an outflow of 90,000 yuan [6]

Group 1: Fund Market Overview - The major domestic stock indices experienced a decline last week, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index showing changes of -0.18%, -0.18%, and -0.57% respectively [7] - The mid and small-cap indices, including the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext, recorded declines of -1.10%, -1.29%, and -0.88% respectively [7] - The trading volume of comprehensive ETFs was 40.459 billion, a decrease of 20.628 billion from the previous week, with large-cap style ETFs accounting for 21.370 billion and small-cap style ETFs for 19.339 billion [25] Group 2: ETF Performance - The average weekly change for 32 thematic ETFs was -0.67%, with large-cap style ETFs averaging -0.50% and small-cap style ETFs averaging -0.80% [26] - The top three performing comprehensive ETFs were the Shen 100 ETF, 300 ETF, and another 300 ETF, with changes of 0.26%, 0.00%, and -0.03% respectively [31] - The industry thematic ETFs showed mixed results, with the top performers being the Pharmaceutical ETF, Biopharmaceutical ETF, and Nonferrous ETF, with changes of 1.93%, 1.82%, and 1.33% respectively [31] Group 3: Fund Flow Trends - Comprehensive ETFs saw significant outflows, while sectors like military, semiconductor, and electronics attracted substantial inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [31] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced outflows as investors took profits [31] - The trading activity was concentrated in the ChiNext 50, ChiNext, military leaders, banking ETFs, and computer sectors, indicating areas of investor interest [23]

Group 1: Fund Market Overview - The public fund market experienced a slight decline in scale at the end of Q1 2025 compared to the end of 2024, primarily due to a reduction in fixed-income fund sizes, which have seen net redemptions for three consecutive quarters [2][9] - The total number of funds reached 12,600, an increase of 240 funds, while the total fund share decreased by 7,603.52 million shares, a decline of 2.52% [10] - The total net asset value of funds was 316,208.04 billion, down by 6,424.19 million, a decrease of 1.99% [10] Group 2: Active Equity Funds - Active equity funds saw a scale increase to 34,603.43 billion, up by 615.55 million, a rise of 1.81% [19] - The share of active equity funds reached 29,570.73 billion, with a net redemption of 676.11 million shares, significantly reduced compared to previous quarters [19] - The average stock position of active equity funds increased to 83.01%, nearing historical highs, with specific categories showing varied changes in stock positions [33] Group 3: Passive Index Funds - The scale of passive index funds reached a new high of 34,439.07 billion, increasing by 1,507.29 million, a growth of 4.58% [24] - The share of passive index funds was 29,720.32 billion, with a net subscription of 717.53 million shares, although the growth trend has shown signs of slowing down [24] Group 4: Fixed-Income Funds - Fixed-income funds experienced a decline in scale to 90,467.87 billion, down by 3,706.54 million, a decrease of 3.94% [26] - The share of fixed-income funds was 82,821.33 billion, with net redemptions continuing for three consecutive quarters [26] Group 5: Fund Holdings by Industry - The top five industries with increased holdings in fund portfolios were non-ferrous metals, automobiles, machinery, computers, and media, with respective increases of 0.51%, 0.47%, 0.22%, 0.13%, and 0.07% [4][37] - The industries with the largest decreases in holdings included electric power equipment and new energy, communication, non-bank financials, food and beverage, and electronics, with declines of -0.61%, -0.51%, -0.45%, -0.33%, and -0.25% respectively [4][37] Group 6: Comparison of Fund Holdings - A comparative analysis of fund holdings across different management capabilities revealed varying trends in industry allocations among all market funds, active equity funds, and top-tier funds, indicating potential market consensus and divergence [41]

Core Insights - The report highlights the persistent low inflation in China, with April 2025 PPI down 2.7% year-on-year for 31 consecutive months and CPI down 0.1% year-on-year, remaining around 0% for 25 months [1][2] - The report emphasizes the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies to address the low inflation, suggesting the use of fiscal and monetary tools to stimulate demand and support economic recovery [2][3] Economic Conditions - The prolonged low inflation is attributed to several factors, including a deep adjustment in the real estate market, which negatively impacts both upstream manufacturing and downstream sales, leading to insufficient consumer demand [2] - The report notes that since April 2023, emerging industries such as new energy and photovoltaics have experienced overcapacity, resulting in declining product prices and profits [2] Policy Recommendations - To combat low inflation, the report recommends implementing more aggressive fiscal policies, focusing on government-led investment in new infrastructure and urban renewal [2] - It suggests utilizing special government bonds and other unconventional fiscal tools to stimulate the economy and support trade and enterprise relief efforts [2] Consumer Demand - The report indicates that consumer spending needs to be further stimulated, with retail sales in April 2025 growing by 5.1% year-on-year, showing a decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [3] - It calls for measures to increase residents' income, particularly for low- and middle-income groups, and to stabilize property and stock market incomes [3] Industry Focus - The report advocates for enhancing supply-side policies to create demand in sectors such as service consumption and new consumption, including areas like hospitality, healthcare, and digital consumption [3] - It emphasizes the importance of pushing for capacity clearance and structural upgrades in certain industries to avoid "involution" and promote healthy competition [5] Market Strategy - The report suggests focusing on defensive sectors, expanding domestic demand, and promoting self-sufficiency in investment strategies, especially in light of ongoing trade tensions and market uncertainties [6][7] - It identifies consumer sectors such as home appliances, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals as beneficiaries of domestic consumption policies, while also recommending investments in technology and strategic resources [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [4][23]. Core Viewpoints - Xiaomi has launched its self-developed "Xuanjie O1" chip, enhancing its "Human-Vehicle-Home" ecosystem. The company plans to invest an additional 200 billion yuan in core technology research and development from 2026 to 2030 [2][21]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in revenue and net profit, with projections of 309.48 billion yuan, 400.08 billion yuan, and 501.72 billion yuan in net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [23]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Indicators - Revenue (million yuan): 270,970.14 in 2023, projected to reach 673,424.43 by 2027, with a CAGR of 16.89% [1]. - Net profit (million yuan): 17,475.17 in 2023, expected to grow to 50,172.45 by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 25.40% [1]. - ROE: Expected to increase from 10.66% in 2023 to 16.19% in 2027 [1]. - EPS: Projected to rise from 0.67 yuan in 2023 to 1.93 yuan in 2027 [1]. Product Launches and Innovations - The "Xuanjie O1" chip is a significant milestone, utilizing a second-generation 3nm process and featuring a 10-core CPU and a 16-core GPU [11][12]. - The Xiaomi 15S Pro, Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, and Xiaomi Watch S4 were launched, all equipped with the new chip, showcasing advancements in technology and design [2][11]. - The high-performance SUV, Xiaomi YU7, was introduced, featuring impressive specifications such as a maximum horsepower of 690PS and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of just 3.23 seconds [3][21]. Market Position and Strategy - Xiaomi's smartphone business remains strong, consistently ranking among the top three globally for 19 consecutive quarters. The company is also expanding into the electric vehicle market, which is expected to provide a second growth curve [17][23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining high R&D investments, totaling 1,020 billion yuan over the past five years, to support product upgrades across its ecosystem [17][21].