证券研究报告| 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 27 日 圣泉集团（605589.SH） 1H25 公司业绩实现较高增速，合成树脂和先进电子材料板块表现 优异 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 9,120 | 10,020 | 11,575 | 14,371 | 16,270 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -5.0 | 9.9 | 15.5 | 24.2 | 13.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 789 | 868 | 1,286 | 1,425 | 1,672 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 12.2 | 9.9 | 48.1 | 10.8 | 17.4 | | ROE（%） | 8.4 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 12.2 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.93 | 1.03 | 1.52 | 1.68 | 1.98 | | P/E（倍） | 34.4 | 31.3 | 21.1 | 19.1 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has achieved high profitability from overseas energy storage orders, and despite disruptions, it maintains its annual targets [1] - The inverter market is recovering, with strong demand in traditional markets and contributions from new segments [2] - The energy storage segment has seen significant revenue growth, supported by high-margin orders and a strong brand effect [3] - The company is actively adapting to policy changes affecting its power station development business and is exploring new opportunities in AIDC [4] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 72,251 million yuan in 2023 to 110,546 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 8.5% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from 9,440 million yuan in 2023 to 14,035 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 1.3% in the final year [1] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 32.6% in 2023 to 18.7% in 2027 [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 4.55 yuan in 2023 to 6.77 yuan in 2027 [1] Segment Performance - The inverter segment generated revenue of 153.27 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.06% and a gross margin of 35.74% [2] - The energy storage systems segment achieved revenue of 178.03 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 127.78% [3] - The company’s new energy investment and development business reported a revenue of 83.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 6.22% year-on-year [4]

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 27 日 泰胜风能（300129.SZ） 产能建设推进顺利订单充裕，海外海上出货放量可期 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 4,813 | 4,838 | 6,061 | 6,937 | 8,030 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 53.9 | 0.5 | 25.3 | 14.4 | 15.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 292 | 182 | 308 | 446 | 550 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 6.4 | -37.8 | 69.4 | 44.7 | 23.4 | | ROE（%） | 6.8 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 9.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.31 | 0.19 | 0.33 | 0.48 | 0.59 | | P/E（倍） | 24.9 | 40.1 | 23.7 | 16.4 | 13.2 | | P/B（倍） | 1.7 | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 08 月 26 日 龙蟠科技（603906.SH） 铁锂出海迎收获，碳酸锂步入正轨 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8,729 | 7,673 | 8,686 | 10,447 | 12,386 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -38.0 | -12.1 | 13.2 | 20.3 | 18.6 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -1,233 | -636 | 88 | 284 | 640 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -263.8 | 48.5 | 113.8 | 224.4 | 125.2 | | ROE（%） | -36.2 | -19.9 | 2.6 | 7.9 | 15.1 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | -1.80 | -0.93 | 0.13 | 0.42 | 0.93 | | P/E（倍） | -8.2 | -15.8 | 114.8 | 35.4 | 15.7 | | ...

扣非盈利同比提升，新能源量增对冲价减 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 180,999 | 179,182 | 176,287 | 182,102 | 187,018 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -7.0 | -1.0 | -1.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,609 | 9,831 | 7,422 | 8,222 | 8,822 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 98.8 | 75.3 | -24.5 | 10.8 | 7.3 | | ROE（%） | 10.0 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.3 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.31 | 0.55 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.49 | | P/E（倍） | 15.3 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 9.7 | | P/B（倍） | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 资料来源：公司财报， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant profit growth in Q2 2025, with a revenue of 2.223 billion yuan (up 2.55% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 169 million yuan (up 0.96% year-on-year) [1] - The core business of the company, which is the sale of malt products, achieved a revenue of 2.135 billion yuan in H1 2025 (up 1.27% year-on-year), accounting for 96.03% of total revenue [2] - The company is positioned as the largest malt supplier in Asia, benefiting from scale advantages, strong customer barriers, and a unique cost structure [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to reach 4.426 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, and net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 334 million yuan, reflecting an 11.4% increase [4] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for Q2 2025 were 13.24% and 8.17%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases [2] - The company has optimized its production capacity to align with the trend of high-end beer consumption, with a total production capacity of 1.08 million tons per year [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages in the short term and increased demand for high-end beer in the long term [3] - The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase to 50.27% in 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3] - The company is actively pursuing a strategy to enhance its product structure towards high-end and customized products [3]

大储羽翼丰满，优质订单支撑利润体量。公司储能业务 25 年上半年实现出货 约 3.1GWh，同比增长 19.23%，贡献营收约 44.3 亿元，同比+8.55%，其中 二季度储能交付 2.2GWh，环比增长超 140%，公司储能订单优质，单价高、 盈利好，叠加海外拉货节奏旺盛，测算 Q2 储能板块毛利率仍维持在 30%的 水平区间，对应单位盈利约为 0.3 元/Wh，继续领跑行业。截至报告期末， 阿特斯储能科技（e-STORAGE）已签署合同在手订单金额为 30 亿美元，在 美洲、澳洲、欧洲均有新签大规模项目，但考虑到主力市场当地补贴政策、 贸易变化的影响，保守调整全年出货预期至 7-9GWh，预计 25Q3 储能出货 2.1-2.3GWh。 坚持利润优先原则，组件业务限产保价。利润优先是公司在光伏领域的首要 经营原则，报告期内，公司出货组件 14.8GW，同比基本持平，贡献营业收 入约 143.62 亿元，同比-7.34%，对应 Q2 组件出货约 7.9GW，环比增长约 15%，得益于公司组件在北美市场出货量、市占率的增长韧性，测算 Q2 公 司组件毛利率明显改善，综合单瓦利润约为 0.02 元。展望后续， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 4.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year. This growth is primarily driven by government subsidy policies stimulating consumer demand and the AI wave boosting demand in sectors such as PCs, servers, and automobiles [2][12]. - The company is actively expanding its AI server market and has launched customized storage projects, with expectations for high single-digit revenue growth annually in the medium to long term [4][5]. - The company is positioned as the second-largest global market share holder in Nor Flash and eighth in MCU, with rapid growth in self-developed DRAM expected to yield net profits of 1.568 billion, 2.084 billion, and 2.587 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported total revenue of 5.761 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of -29.1%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 13.788 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 20.2% [1][16]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 161 million yuan, with a projected increase to 2.587 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 24.2% [1][16]. - The company's latest diluted EPS is projected to grow from 0.24 yuan in 2023 to 3.90 yuan in 2027, indicating a strong upward trend in earnings per share [1][16]. Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the storage chip revenue was 2.845 billion yuan, accounting for 69% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38.50% [3][12]. - The company’s DRAM gross margin has recovered to double digits due to supply shortages in the niche DRAM market, driven by the exit of overseas manufacturers [3][4]. - The microcontroller segment saw a revenue increase of 19% year-on-year, contributing 9.59 billion yuan to total revenue, with a gross margin of 37.31% [3][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on AI-driven product development, with plans to introduce customized storage solutions for AI PCs and smart devices by 2026 [4][5]. - The company has established a strong product matrix across MCU, storage, sensors, and analog products, which is expected to drive future growth [5][6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic positioning in the semiconductor industry, emphasizing its competitive advantages and growth potential in the AI and storage markets [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [4][16]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 3.234 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 118 million yuan, up 63.27% year-on-year [2][3]. - The growth is driven by the dual engines of "cross-border e-commerce and packaging," with the cross-border e-commerce segment achieving revenue of 2.116 billion yuan, a 52.91% increase, and net profit of 55 million yuan, up 97.67% [2][3]. - The company has a strong market position in the Chinese paper-based fast-moving consumer goods packaging sector, benefiting from the rapid growth of instant retail, which has led to a surge in demand for food-grade packaging [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, the company expects revenue of 6.695 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.5%. However, a decline of 17.4% is projected for 2024 [1][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 345 million yuan in 2023, with a significant increase of 87.6% year-on-year, followed by a decline of 47.3% in 2024 [1][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.4% in 2023, decreasing to 8.4% in 2024, and gradually recovering to 12.9% by 2027 [1][9]. Dividend and Globalization Strategy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.80 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 80 million yuan, emphasizing its commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - The recent listing of H-shares in Hong Kong is expected to enhance the company's global strategy, facilitating the expansion of its cross-border e-commerce and packaging businesses [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index within the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company's main business remains strong, with innovative business segments contributing to future performance growth. The report projects revenue growth from CNY 6.95 billion in 2025 to CNY 11.70 billion by 2027, with net profit expected to rise from CNY 1.33 billion to CNY 1.79 billion during the same period [9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of CNY 321 million, a year-on-year increase of 43.15%, and a net profit of CNY 46 million, up 32.48% [1]. - The projected revenue and net profit figures for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2025E: Revenue CNY 6.95 billion, Net Profit CNY 1.33 billion - 2026E: Revenue CNY 8.95 billion, Net Profit CNY 1.60 billion - 2027E: Revenue CNY 11.70 billion, Net Profit CNY 1.79 billion [9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10.4% in 2025 to 12.0% in 2027 [9]. Business Segment Performance - The company's power prediction service has seen significant growth, with revenue reaching CNY 205.11 million, a 55.14% increase year-on-year, accounting for 63.96% of total revenue [2]. - The revenue from the company's grid control and renewable energy management systems faced challenges, with a decline in revenue for the smart control products by 4.56% to CNY 51.02 million, representing 15.91% of total revenue [3]. - Innovative business segments, including power trading and virtual power plants, are contributing to revenue growth, with total revenue from these segments at CNY 16.16 million, a 1.53% increase year-on-year [9].