证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 医药生物 关税影响下，推荐医药韧性领域 ——医药生物周跟踪 20250406 投资要点 ❑ 周思考：关税影响下，医药观点变化 2025 年以来，各行业表现交织，中美医药关税博弈已从"全行业对抗"转向"精准 技术封锁"，我们推荐进口替代加速和内需确定性两条主线，但同时也提示不可忽 略具备全球竞争力的产品或服务提价预期带来的投资机会。 ➢ 进口替代加速：生命科学服务、高端医疗器械。国内生命科学服务领域的试 剂、仪器等不断技术升级，以达到进口替代和出海作增量市场的目的，贸易摩擦 强化下，我们认为这更有利于这些产品的替代升级，典型公司如华大智造、迈瑞 医疗、联影医疗、纳微科技、百普赛斯、泰坦科技、毕得医药、皓元医药等； 2025Q2 医药行业观点：我们推荐医药行业那些具备"重构者"角色的子领域，这 些领域中期或成为并购整合、新品突破的引领者，逐步成为重构产业生态的主角。 这些领域包含有较大α增量的创新药械、现金流丰富的传统药企以及具备全球竞 争力的出海企业（包括产品及服务）。 投资建议：科伦药业、泽璟制药、康方生物、药明康德、康龙化成、泰坦科技、 毕得医药、国邦医药、天宇股份、上海医药 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度有所回落 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 4 月 5 日）为 5.4%，较上周 5.7%略有回落，或表 征一季度经济开门红脉冲后，经济增长景气有所回摆。我们认为，随着美国加征关税 的冲击，GDP 周频景气指数或进入下行通道，有待持续跟踪验证。 从生产法来看，工业、服务业景气总体上相较上周总体环比回落。 从需求侧来看，消费表现尚可，固投、出口景气度本周回落。 从价格端来看，本周物 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for SANY Heavy Industry is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan, reflecting confidence in its future [1] - The construction machinery industry is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit [2][3] - SANY's excavator revenue accounts for a significant portion of its income, providing substantial earnings elasticity during industry upturns [4] - The company plans to repurchase shares and issue Hong Kong stocks, indicating a commitment to global expansion [5] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 show strong growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 34% for net profit [6] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY Heavy Industry, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [6] Company Developments - On April 3, 2025, SANY announced a 2025 employee stock ownership plan with a scale not exceeding 535 million yuan, representing about 1% of the total share capital [1] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 1-2 billion yuan to support the employee stock ownership plan and has announced plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] Industry Analysis - The domestic excavator sales in China for January-February 2025 reached 17,045 units, a year-on-year increase of 51% [2] - The CMI index for March 2025 was 128.56, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 21% month-on-month increase, indicating a market entering a peak season [2] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in March 2025 increased by 7% year-on-year and 94% month-on-month [3] Financial Performance - SANY's excavator revenue accounted for 39% of its total revenue in the first half of 2024, indicating strong earnings potential during industry upturns [4] - The company's net profit margin improved to 8.6% in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 percentage points, with operating cash flow reaching 12.4 billion yuan, up 145% year-on-year [4] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 78.194 billion yuan, 94.397 billion yuan, and 115.568 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit forecasts of 5.8 billion yuan, 8.484 billion yuan, and 11.011 billion yuan [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The impact of the "reciprocal tariffs" on the company is relatively limited due to sufficient inventory in the U.S. and the commencement of local production in late 2023 [2][5] - The company is actively establishing new factories in low-tariff regions and adjusting product prices to mitigate potential tariff risks [3][5] - The revenue share from the U.S. market is expected to gradually decline as the company expands its presence in other regions [4][5] Summary by Sections Short-term Impact - The company has sufficient inventory in the U.S. to meet sales demands for the next 6-9 months and is confident in achieving its annual business goals in the U.S. [2] - Local production facilities in the U.S. are operational, allowing the company to leverage capacity advantages and potentially shift certain high-automation products to local manufacturing [2] Long-term Strategy - The company is enhancing its global supply chain by establishing manufacturing in low-tariff countries such as Mexico, which will help minimize tariff risks [3] - The company plans to adjust product prices in response to market conditions, with strong demand from U.S. customers willing to share the burden of additional tariff costs [3] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 48.33 billion, 60.52 billion, and 76.83 billion respectively, with net profits of 8.05 billion, 11.19 billion, and 13.98 billion [5][11] - The company anticipates a significant growth rate in its energy business and is actively pursuing AI and robotics as a new growth avenue [5]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 06 日 风偏回落，继续关注稳健类转债 核心观点 我们认为海外关税短期冲击市场风险偏好，中期影响基本面预期，结合 4 月年报密集 披露，市场短期或将切回稳健风格，建议投资者关注高等级、基本面稳健转债，同时 受益于消费补贴利好的消费电子、家电、家居等相关转债也可适当关注。 ❑ 风偏回落，继续关注稳健类转债 过去一周（3 月 31 日至 4 月 3 日，下同）转债指数涨跌参半，其中可转债公 用、医疗、日常消费行业指数，双低转债指数领涨，市场整体呈现出稳健风格。 估值方面，债性、平衡性的四周移动平均估值均出现压缩，股性转债的估值上 升。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅下降到 120.25 元，处在 2017 年以来的 79.38%水平。整体来看，当前转债市场相对此前的高涨状态逐渐降温。 我们认为当前可转债市场跟随权益出现滞涨状态，一方面在于新质生产力相关板 块短期涨幅过高，市场在年报密集披露前后定价核心重回基本面，而该部分相关 标的普遍短期业绩预期无法落地，市场或有市场风格切换的可能性；另一方面， 基于 2024 年财报 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The ongoing trade war has led to increased tariffs, with the U.S. imposing a total of 20% tariffs on Chinese goods as of February and March 2025, followed by an additional 34% tariff announced in April 2025 [1][2] - In response, China has implemented a 34% tariff on all U.S. imports and has taken measures against 16 U.S. entities, indicating an escalation in the trade conflict [2] - The heightened tensions between the U.S. and China have underscored the importance of self-reliance in technology and the need for China to enhance its technological capabilities [3] - The software sector is expected to focus on domestic demand, with significant potential for market growth and technological substitution [3] - 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for government and party-related technology initiatives, with a focus on PC-based technology updates and strong performance from key companies in Q1 and throughout the year [3] - Domestic AI models, such as those from Alibaba and DeepSeek, are now among the global leaders, driving the development of AI applications tailored to local needs [4] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including those with high market share in foundational software, AI applications, and hardware sectors [5] Summary by Sections - **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. has increased tariffs on Chinese goods, leading to a total of 20% and then 34% tariffs, prompting China to retaliate with similar measures [1][2] - **Technological Self-Reliance**: The report emphasizes the need for China to focus on self-reliance in technology amidst rising tensions, particularly in the software sector [3] - **AI Development**: Chinese AI models are gaining global recognition, with a focus on applications that meet domestic enterprise needs [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: Key companies recommended for investment include Dameng Data, China Software, and others in the AI and hardware sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 174.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.66%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.228 billion yuan, up 15.38% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from liquor products reached 170.612 billion yuan, with a volume and price increase of 13.73% and 1.90% respectively [2] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of approximately 9% for 2025, ensuring stable pricing for its flagship products [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 51.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.77%, with a net profit of 25.401 billion yuan, up 16.21% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 91.93%, with a net profit margin of 52.27% [4] - The company distributed a total cash dividend of 64.7 billion yuan, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 75% [5] Product Performance - Revenue from Moutai liquor was 145.928 billion yuan, up 15.28% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was 24.684 billion yuan, up 19.65% [2] - The proportion of series liquor revenue increased by 0.45 percentage points to 14.47% [2] Market Dynamics - Domestic and international market revenues were 165.423 billion yuan and 5.189 billion yuan respectively, with the international market revenue surpassing 5 billion yuan for the first time [3] - Direct sales and wholesale channel revenues were 74.843 billion yuan and 95.769 billion yuan, with direct sales accounting for 43.87% of total revenue [3] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a balanced growth in volume and price, with a projected revenue growth of 9.03%, 8.20%, and 8.16% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][14] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 74.85 yuan, 80.94 yuan, and 87.60 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.115 billion yuan, down 16.61% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.582 billion yuan, a decline of 11.45% year-on-year, and a net loss of 217 million yuan, compared to a loss of 7 million yuan in the same period last year. The lower net profit was primarily due to a provision for expected liabilities of 254 million yuan related to litigation [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales Performance - In 2024, the total sales volume was 2.9749 million tons, a decrease of 0.75% year-on-year, with an average price of 4,923 yuan per ton, down 0.40% year-on-year. The fourth quarter sales volume was 317,900 tons, a decline of 8.07% year-on-year, with an average price of 4,975 yuan per ton, down 3.68% year-on-year. The high-end beer sales ratio increased, with premium revenue down 2.97% (volume up 1.37%, price down 4.3%), mainstream revenue down 1.02% (volume down 3.81%, price up 2.9%), and economy revenue up 15.56% (volume up 13.49%, price up 1.8%) [2] Regional Performance - The South region performed relatively well, while the Northwest and Central regions faced challenges. In 2024, the Northwest, Central, and South regions generated revenues of 3.884 billion, 5.969 billion, and 4.316 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -3.46%, -1.88%, and -0.42%. In Q4 2024, revenues were 211 million, 620 million, and 631 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -17.47%, -15.57%, and -8.59%. The South region's revenue share increased by 0.45 percentage points to 30.46%, mainly driven by tourism recovery in regions like Yunnan and Guangxi [3] Profitability and Costs - The company's gross margin and net profit margin in 2024 decreased by 0.58 and 2.94 percentage points to 48.57% and 15.36%, respectively. In Q4 2024, the gross margin and net profit margin decreased by 5.42 and 26.53 percentage points to 43.38% and -26.38%, respectively. The cost per ton based on operating costs was 2,532 yuan, up 0.72% year-on-year, while the cost per ton for beer business was 2,396 yuan, down 1.06% year-on-year [4][5] Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, a slight growth is expected, with beer consumption showing signs of recovery. The company anticipates a modest increase in revenue and profit for the first quarter. For the full year 2025, growth in sales is expected to be driven by the recovery of dining scenarios, with stable expense ratios. The cost per ton will need to be monitored based on sales performance, with potential increases in depreciation and amortization costs from the Foshan factory, although improvements in raw material procurement costs and transportation costs may offset some of these increases [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are projected at 2.0%, 2.6%, and 2.6%, while the net profit growth rates are expected to be 14.4%, 4.4%, and 4.3%. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.6, 2.8, and 2.9 yuan per share, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22.7, 21.7, and 20.8 times, respectively. The current valuation is considered cost-effective, supporting the "Buy" rating [7]

4 月防守看出版，免征税利润释放加高股息防御价值突显 ——行业点评报告 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 传媒 投资要点 出版行业主业稳健、分红意愿高，所得税免征后预计 25Q1 净利润普遍同增 30- 40%，当前股息率普遍在 4%以上，看好出版板块高股息防御价值，关注 AI 教 育业务带来新增量。 教材教辅主业稳健，广东、山东等地具有人口增长优势。 2025 年在校学生数主要由 07-19 年各地区出生率决定，根据我们估算，25-26 年，广东、山东、四川、湖北仍将维持在校人口正增长。25-26 年广东和山东省 在校学生数分别预计同比增长+2.2%/1.7%和+0.8%/0.4%。此外，从人口流动看从 常住人口规模看，经济发达地区如浙江、广东、江苏人口流入维持增长趋势，进 一步支持在校学生数的增长。 税率变动影响下，主要出版公司 25Q1 净利润普遍同增 30-40%。 2025 年，由于所得税免征政策，以及 2024 年低基数影响，预期税后净利润有显 著改善。 假设 25Q1 出版行业公司实际税率恢复到 23Q1 水平，则各公司 25Q1 净利润同比增速普遍在 30-40%之间。 按照 2025 年 3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company's revenue growth in 2024 is primarily driven by an increase in container throughput and the consolidation of the Indonesian NPH project. The total global throughput reached 195 million TEU, reflecting an 8.3% increase, which is higher than the average growth rate of domestic ports [1] - The company has strengthened its domestic hub position, with the Shenzhen West Port area achieving a throughput of 15.99 million TEU, up 17.7%, and foreign trade market share exceeding 50% [1] - The company has also seen significant contributions from overseas projects, with notable performances from Brazil's TCP (+24.3%), Togo's LCT (+3.9%), and Djibouti's PDSA (+47.9%). The newly acquired Indonesian NPH contributed an additional 417,000 TEU since July [1] - The company has effectively controlled operating costs, resulting in a 1.3% decrease in operating costs year-on-year, leading to an increase in gross profit by 500 million yuan and a gross margin of 43.0%, up 2.15 percentage points [1] - The proposed cash dividend of 0.74 yuan per share for 2024 represents a dividend payout ratio of 40.8%, the highest in eight years, with a dividend yield of 3.7% [1] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue of 161.31 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 45.16 billion yuan, reflecting a 26.44% increase [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.81 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.03 [4] - The company anticipates net profits of 47.56 billion yuan, 49.8 billion yuan, and 52.27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][4] Industry Outlook - The company's global network is expected to continue deepening, with the full-year consolidation of the Indonesian NPH and the ramp-up of HIPG's container business. The throughput growth for Terminal Link is projected to be 5.7% year-on-year in 2024 [2] - The RCEP benefits are expected to persist, with Southeast Asian ports likely to maintain high growth rates, further solidifying the company's hub positions in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta regions [2]