2025 年 1-2 月经济：生产扩张，经济向上 ——2025 年 1-2 月宏观数据解读 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 1-2 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.9%，高于市场预期，与我们预期 （5.4%）较为接近。工业稳增长政策助力工业生产开门红，结构上，节后大企业 复工节奏快于中小企业，工业大省、重点行业是稳增长重点。如我们前期提示， 装备制造业是工业稳增长的重点。1-2 月份，装备制造业增加值同比增长 10.6%， 比上年全年加快 2.9 个百分点，对工业增长形成有力支撑。1-2 月服务业生产指数 同比增长 5.6%，延续积极态势，主要在于生产性服务业活跃度较高，工业企业生 产活跃积极带动生产性服务业，同时资本市场活跃对金融业有所支撑。 ❑ 1-2 月社零同比增速抬升，政策发力与汽车拖累并存 1-2 月社会消费品零售总额同比+4.0%（前值+3.7%），社零读数较上个月回升 0.3 个百分点，其中除汽车以外的消费品零售额同比增长 4.8%。结构上，其一，缘于 消费品以旧换新政策发力、消费结构升级驱动的影响，通讯器材、体娱用品、文 化办公用品零售额领跑其他品类，对社零形成支撑，其 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.921 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.57%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.557 billion yuan, up 35.29% year-on-year [7] - The company is actively implementing its "1238" strategy, which focuses on a dual-driven development model of pharmaceuticals and health consumer products, along with a three-industry integration of the gelatin industry chain [7] - The company plans to enhance brand exposure and terminal promotion, with sales expenses expected to increase to 1.973 billion yuan in 2024, a rise of 32.77% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 72.42%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher proportion of high-margin gelatin products [7] - The company has shown significant improvement in operational efficiency, with accounts receivable turnover days reduced by 14.27 days to 23.51 days [7] - A high cash dividend payout ratio is noted, with a total cash dividend of 1.555 billion yuan for the year [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.972 billion yuan, 8.074 billion yuan, and 9.283 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.75%, 15.80%, and 14.97% [3][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.943 billion yuan in 2025, 2.359 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.860 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 24.80%, 21.41%, and 21.25% respectively [3][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.02 yuan in 2025, 3.66 yuan in 2026, and 4.44 yuan in 2027 [3][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 24.29 in 2024 to 13.22 in 2027 [3][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.921 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.57%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.557 billion yuan, up 35.29% year-on-year [7] - The company is actively implementing its "1238" strategy, which focuses on a dual-driven development model of pharmaceuticals and health consumer products, along with a three-industry integration in the gel product chain [7] - The company plans to enhance sales investment in 2024, aiming for growth and breakthroughs in 2025, with a sales expense of 1.973 billion yuan, an increase of 32.77% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected at 72.42%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher proportion of high-margin gel products [7] - The company has shown significant improvement in operational efficiency, with accounts receivable turnover days reduced by 14.27 days to 23.51 days [7] - The company completed its first interim cash dividend of 737 million yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 99.77% [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 1.943 billion yuan, 2.359 billion yuan, and 2.860 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 24.80%, 21.41%, and 21.25% [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 5.921 billion yuan, 6.972 billion yuan, 8.074 billion yuan, and 9.283 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 25.57%, 17.75%, 15.80%, and 14.97% [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 2.42 yuan, 3.02 yuan, 3.66 yuan, and 4.44 yuan, respectively [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 24.29 in 2024 to 13.22 in 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][21]. Core Insights - The company has received small batch orders for hollow cup motors in the humanoid robot sector, indicating a strong product reserve in this area. The company has been a leading supplier in the hollow cup motor market since 2014 and is well-positioned for growth in humanoid robotics [1][9]. - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate, with a projected demand of approximately 2.04 million units in China and the US by 2030, representing a market space of about 305 billion yuan, with hollow cup motors accounting for around 7% of the value, equating to approximately 20.4 billion yuan [2]. - The smart controller business is anticipated to benefit from the AI wave, with a market CAGR of 13% over the past five years, suggesting a potential for accelerated demand in the coming years [2]. - The company is undervalued when viewed solely as a smart controller manufacturer, as it is transitioning towards a more integrated approach with control technology as its foundation [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues are as follows: - 2023: 8,992 million yuan - 2024: 10,542 million yuan (up 17.2%) - 2025: 12,116 million yuan (up 14.9%) - 2026: 14,273 million yuan (up 17.8%) [3][20]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is: - 2023: 516 million yuan - 2024: 670 million yuan (up 30%) - 2025: 887 million yuan (up 32.5%) - 2026: 1,085 million yuan (up 22.2%) [3][20]. - The company maintains a long-term R&D investment ratio of 7-10% of revenue, with a total of 1,138 invention patents, indicating a strong focus on innovation [11][15]. Additional Insights - The company has established a dedicated business unit for humanoid robots, reflecting its commitment to this growing market [10]. - The company’s stock option incentive plan for 2024 aims for revenue targets of 11.6 billion yuan, 13.8 billion yuan, and 16 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [8]. - The company has been recognized as a national high-tech enterprise, which will provide a 15% income tax rate benefit from 2024 to 2026, potentially enhancing profit margins [7][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "看好" (Positive) based on the expectation that the industry index will outperform the CSI 300 index by more than 10% in the next six months [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that 大金重工 (Dajin Heavy Industry) is a leading player in the offshore wind power tower market, with significant growth potential due to increasing overseas orders and market share [5] - The company is expected to exceed performance expectations due to a clear demand for offshore wind towers in Europe, with a projected CAGR of 50.4% from 2024 to 2026 [5] - The profitability of tower units is anticipated to improve significantly, as the cost of materials and labor in Europe is approximately 1.4 and 3.4 times higher than in China, respectively [5] Summary by Sections Market Overview - On March 17, the total trading volume of the A-share market was 16,209 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 10.483 billion HKD from southbound funds [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.19%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.24% [4] Industry Performance - The best-performing sectors on March 17 included construction materials (+2.05%), environmental protection (+1.88%), and real estate (+0.96%) [4] - The worst-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals (-0.79%), beauty and personal care (-0.73%), and coal (-0.35%) [4] Company Insights - Dajin Heavy Industry is positioned as a leader in the offshore wind tower market, with a focus on capturing overseas opportunities [5] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 3,992.96 million yuan in 2024, 6,061.58 million yuan in 2025, and 9,066.62 million yuan in 2026 [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 428.51 million yuan, 781.71 million yuan, and 1,425.73 million yuan, respectively [6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 展望未来消费政策发力路径，我们认为在结构转型的大背景下，把消费作为逆周期的 发力手段需要一个凝聚共识的阶段，所以我们预判消费发力是一个渐进的过程。但我 们也同样提示，若中美贸易摩擦超预期，逆周期调节力度可能明显增强，消费领域超 常规逆周期政策可能包括发放全国消费券，以及给中低收入群体直接发补贴。资金来 源可能结合特别国债、央行利润上缴及中央财政共同出资，极端情况下或依赖央行扩 表支持。 ❑ 重点通过"增收组合拳"促进消费，而非"现金派发" 《提振消费专项行动方案》（后文简称"方案"）将"城乡居民增收促进行动" 置于首位，通过工资性收入、财产性收入、农民增收、账款清欠四维发力。我们 认为该举措体现了国家将收入分配改革作为扩大内需的核心抓手，而非直接"现 金派发"，体现了对长期可持续发展与短期刺激的平衡考量。 具体而言：其一，覆盖居民收入主要构成，其中工资性收入和财产性收入在居民 人均可支配收入中占比 65%，是居民的收入的主要来源，增收政策把握了核心矛 盾。其二，强调供需两端综合发力，此前的消费政策大多从供给侧入手，强调以 供给引领创造需求。这次《方案》在需求侧加大 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry has evolved from traditional appliances to smart appliances and now to AI-enabled appliances, driven by breakthroughs in domestic large models [2] - The integration of AI technology is expected to transform televisions into the central hub of smart home systems, enhancing user experience through voice control and remote monitoring [2] - Major brands are actively embracing AI applications, with Samsung leading the way through a comprehensive ecosystem built on chip, system, and software integration [3][4][5] Summary by Sections 1. AI-Driven Transformation in the Television Industry - The evolution of home appliances has progressed through several stages, culminating in AI appliances that can proactively serve user needs [11][12] - The introduction of large models like DeepSeek is expected to enhance the capabilities of AI appliances, allowing for more personalized and efficient user interactions [14][17] 2. Leading Black Appliance Brands and Their AI Applications - Samsung has established a strong competitive edge by integrating AI capabilities into its televisions, utilizing advanced chips and software systems to enhance user experience [30][31] - Hisense has become the first brand to integrate the DeepSeek model, significantly improving its AI television's logical reasoning and multi-scenario applications [40] - TCL is also integrating DeepSeek technology across its product lines, enhancing smart home device interconnectivity and user experience [45] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies capable of integrating chips, systems, and application ecosystems will gain a competitive advantage in the upcoming AI wave [5] - Hisense and TCL are specifically recommended as potential beneficiaries of the AI-driven transformation in the television sector [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a trend of improving profitability due to the increasing revenue share from high-margin businesses such as CDMO and formulations, along with rising capacity utilization and production efficiency [1][10] - The financial performance shows short-term profit pressure but maintains high operational quality, with 2024 revenue reaching 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, and a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, a decline of 2.29% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.29% [1] - The cash flow from operating activities was 1.209 billion yuan, showing a strong operational quality with a year-on-year increase of 17.20% [1] Growth Potential - The raw material and intermediate business saw stable growth, with sales revenue of 8.651 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.32% year-on-year [2] - The CDMO business reported revenue of 1.884 billion yuan in 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 6.05%, with a significant increase in project numbers, indicating strong growth potential [3] Profitability - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 23.85%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in gross margin from the raw material and intermediate business [4] - The company is expected to enter a period of improving profitability as high-margin business revenues increase and production efficiency improves [10] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.00, 1.13, and 1.36 yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times for 2025 [11] - The company is anticipated to enter a new cycle of high-quality growth driven by supply upgrades as capacity is gradually released [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a trend of improving profitability due to the increasing revenue share from high-margin businesses such as CDMO and formulations, along with rising capacity utilization and production efficiency [1][10] - The financial performance shows short-term profit pressure but maintains high operational quality, with 2024 revenue at 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.77%, and a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, down 2.29% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability [1] - The cash flow from operating activities was 1.209 billion yuan, up 17.20% year-on-year, indicating strong operational quality [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 23.85%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin of the raw material and intermediate business [4] Growth Potential Summary - The raw material and intermediate business saw stable growth, with sales revenue of 8.651 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 8.32% year-on-year [2] - The CDMO business maintained strong growth, with 1,601 quoted projects, a 77% increase year-on-year, and 996 ongoing projects, a 35% increase year-on-year [3] - The pharmaceutical business generated revenue of 1.256 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on a multi-variety development strategy and a pipeline of 64 projects [4] Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to enter a period of improving profitability as the revenue share from high-margin businesses increases [10] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.00, 1.13, and 1.36 yuan, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [11]

DeepSeek 投研应用系列：量化代码实测 ❑ DeepSeek 可以实现用户自定义的行情更新、因子计算及选股代码 行情更新：DeepSeek 实现行情数据读取和本地化保存，并给出对应的数据库存 储建议，用户可以进一步通过 DeepSeek 实现本地数据库的维护和定时更新。 因子计算：DeepSeek 能根据研报及文献等公开资料实现计算指标及因子的代 码，也可以根据用户提示实现相应因子计算的代码。将单个标的的单因子计算实 现为函数形式，再结合定时任务，在每日行情更新后，进行增量因子的计算，实 现本地数据库的因子更新。 选股实测：我们以查询上证 50 指数成分股中上穿 10 日均线的股票和筛选近期股 吧评论热度最高的前 10 只股票为例，验证了 DeepSeek 可以实现对标准及另类数 据处理并实现条件筛选的代码逻辑，并按指定格式保存结果。 ❑ 简洁有效的提问可以快速引导 DeepSeek 给出实用代码样例： （1）良好的提问模板：行动 + 领域 + 输出格式;（2）给 DeepSeek 设定确切的 角色；（3）尽可能将任务细化分解，巧用多回合对话；（4）提供样例，让 DeepSeek 按照需要的代码风格进行 ...