中信建投 | 持续推荐算力板块，重视深海经济产业链 中信建投证券研究 2025年03月17日 07:28 北京 文｜阎贵成 刘永旭 武超则 汪洁 尹天杰 英伟达2025年GTC大会将于本周（3月17-21日）举办，将有超过1000场演讲、300多场 现场展示，涉及领域涵盖半导体芯片、人形机器人、网络安全、医疗、自动驾驶、量子计 算等。鸿海法说会上表示，GB200的良率已经达到批量生产标准，生产已经愈来愈稳定； 预计2025年一季度AI服务器收入同比环比均将倍数增长，2025年全年AI服务器营收破兆 元（新台币），占服务器营收达50%。持续推荐算力板块，建议重点关注CPO、液冷、供 电、PCB等领域新技术渗透。 政府工作报告首次纳入"深海科技"。深海科技涵盖深海探测技术、深海资源开发技术、深海 通信与导航技术及深海工程技术。目前，我国已形成覆盖深海探测、资源开发、装备制 造、生态保护的全产业链布局。建议重视相关产业链机会。 点击小程序查看报告原文 英伟达2025年GTC大会将于下周（3月17-21日）举办，将有超过1000场演讲、300多场现场展 示，涉及领域涵盖半导体芯片、人形机器人、网络安全、医疗、自动驾驶 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the A-share market, highlighting a "confidence reassessment bull market" characteristic as it has shown independent performance during a period of decline in US stocks [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The A-share market has demonstrated resilience, achieving a new total market capitalization high and surpassing the 3400-point index mark, marking the first time in nearly 20 years that it has moved independently of US market declines [2][4]. - The current spring market rally has reached historical average levels in terms of duration and space, with the average spring rally lasting about 38 trading days and an average gain of 19.6% since 2008 [2][10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation, particularly focusing on cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, real estate, electronics, telecommunications, media, computers, and machinery [1][3][21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a significant independent rally during a period of US stock market decline, with the total market capitalization reaching new highs [2][4]. - The current spring rally has lasted 39 trading days with a maximum gain of approximately 14%, indicating potential for further growth [14][26]. Sector Focus - The report suggests a short-term rebalancing towards sectors that are experiencing price increases, such as certain metals (antimony, tin) and construction materials, which are showing signs of price improvement [3][23]. - The "AI+" theme remains a core focus for mid-term investment, with strong growth potential and investment value being highlighted [25][26]. Policy and Economic Factors - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption, including birth incentives, are expected to positively impact consumer sectors, which have lagged behind in previous gains [21][24]. - The report notes that the current economic environment supports a recovery in demand and a reduction in supply, contributing to profitability improvements [23][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant growth in net profit over the next few years [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved over 30% growth in both revenue and net profit in 2024, driven by a recovery in downstream testing demand and improved orders since Q3 2024 [1][3]. - The core product STS8300 saw a substantial increase in shipment volume, contributing to revenue growth [1][3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas customer base, with the first STS8300 unit installed in Malaysia, and a new product STS8600 expected to complete validation and start receiving orders [1][11]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 905.35 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.05%, and a net profit of 333.91 million yuan, up 32.69% [2][8]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.31%, reflecting a 0.84 percentage point increase from the previous year [4][8]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 36.88%, a 0.46 percentage point increase year-on-year [8]. Market Outlook - The semiconductor testing equipment market is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 8 billion USD in 2025 [9]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with contract liabilities reaching 56.25 million yuan, a 103.27% increase year-on-year, indicating robust future performance [9]. Product Development and Global Expansion - The new SoC testing system STS8600 is currently undergoing client validation, with expectations for significant progress in 2025 [10]. - The company has made strides in global expansion, with new subsidiaries established in Japan and the U.S., and a factory in Malaysia operational [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% [10]. Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances is positioned favorably with multiple advantages including an upward trend in fundamentals, high dividends, and low valuation. The company is expected to benefit from the long-term national subsidy policy for high-end air conditioners, which has significantly boosted its retail market share since Q4 2024 [1][2]. - The introduction of the Jinghong air conditioner brand aims to penetrate the lower-tier market, leveraging Gree's strong brand reputation to create a second growth curve [1][9]. - Recent share purchases by the dealer group Jinghai Interconnect reflect a stabilization of channel relationships and confidence in Gree's long-term development [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the increasing focus on high dividend yields in the current investment environment, suggesting that Gree's low valuation presents a rebound opportunity [1]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The long-term national subsidy policy has positively impacted the high-end air conditioning market, leading to a notable rebound in Gree's market share. The subsidy for high-efficiency air conditioners can reach up to 20%, stimulating consumer demand for high-performance products [2]. - Gree's market share showed a decline in the first three quarters of 2024 but rebounded by 2.00 percentage points in Q4, with further growth of 4.63% in January-February 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - Key financial metrics for Gree Electric Appliances are as follows: - Revenue (in million): 188,988.38 in 2022, projected to reach 232,403.65 by 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 5.35% [3]. - Net Profit (in million): 24,506.62 in 2022, expected to grow to 37,297.65 by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 7.72% [3]. - Gross Margin: Expected to increase from 26.04% in 2022 to 31.20% by 2026 [3]. - P/E Ratio: Projected to decrease from 10.39 in 2022 to 6.83 by 2026, indicating improving valuation [3]. Strategic Initiatives - Gree plans to launch the Jinghong air conditioner brand to target the engineering and low-price market segments, aiming to regain market share in the lower-tier market where competitors have been gaining ground [9]. - The company maintains a robust dividend policy, with a proposed dividend of 2.38 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 131.42 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend rate of 45.29% and a yield exceeding 6% [10]. Industry Outlook - The global air conditioning demand is expected to remain stable, with domestic sales projected to grow by 1.9% to 10.38 million units in 2025, driven by the national subsidy policy [7]. - Gree is well-positioned to benefit from the overall industry demand increase, particularly in the high-end segment [7].

证券研究报告·A 股公司简评 化学制药 原料药业务韧性凸显， 看好制剂及 CDMO 加速 核心观点 公司 2024 年收入端在核心板块带动下保持平稳，利润端预计受 到 API 品种价格和制剂行业趋势等因素略有扰动。原料药业务韧 性凸显，产能释放有望带来增量。CDMO 能力升级，项目增长趋 势良好。制剂品种扩充，盈利能力提升。研发投入保持高强度， 搭建完善技术平台。展望 2025，我们认为值得关注：1）原料药 板块医美、合成生物学等新兴业务贡献业绩增量；2）CDMO：D 端 M 端齐发力；3）制剂管线扩充拉动增速；4）兽药品种价格见 底回升，需求端兽药使用量预计有望边际向上，关注兽药弹性。 事件 公司发布 2024 年年度报告及分红预案 公司 2024 年实现营业总收入 120.22 亿元，同比增长 4.77% ； 归母净利润 10.31 亿元，同比下降 2.29%；扣非归母净利润 9. 84 亿元，同比下降 4.09%。 分红预案：拟每 10 股派发现金红利 3.56 元（含税），合计 派发现金红利 4.12 亿元，现金分红比例 40%。2024 年度公司回 购股份注销总金额 2 亿元，现金分红和回购注销金额 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific assets [30]. Core Views - The "Black Monday" event is attributed to three main reasons: loosening of the tech narrative, tariff shocks affecting risk appetite, and concerns over fiscal contraction leading to recession fears [1][8]. - The report suggests that the U.S. stock market, represented by risk assets, has not yet reached a major turning point, as three cycles—technology, credit, and fiscal—are still in play, with the technology cycle being the most decisive [1][17]. - The emergence of Deepseek indicates that China may challenge the U.S. "technological advantage," leading to a systematic revaluation of Chinese assets and a downward adjustment of U.S. assets [1]. Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S. Asset Volatility - Since the Spring Festival, the pricing of U.S. and Chinese assets has begun to reverse, challenging the previous "strong U.S. stock-strong dollar-weak U.S. bonds" narrative [6]. - The Nasdaq index has experienced a significant decline, erasing all gains since Trump's election and reaching lows not seen since mid-2024 [6]. - U.S. Treasury yields have also dropped significantly, with the 10-year yield falling from a high of 4.9% to around 4.2%, and the 2-year yield dropping below 4% [6][7]. Section 2: Reasons for U.S. Asset Adjustment - The report identifies three key reasons for the current adjustment in U.S. assets: the weakening tech narrative, tariff impacts leading to reduced risk appetite, and fiscal contraction raising recession concerns [8]. - The introduction of tariffs under Trump's administration has shifted market perceptions from inflation effects to potential recession effects, leading to an overall reduction in risk appetite [8]. - High interest rates are limiting credit expansion, with signs of weakening demand related to private sector credit [8]. Section 3: Global Technology Cycle and Dollar Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of the U.S. technology cycle, which is still expanding, indicating that the current adjustment in U.S. assets does not resemble the 2001 internet bubble burst but rather the 2024 recession narrative [12][21]. - The ongoing AI-driven industrial revolution is crucial for the U.S., as it allows the economy to transcend global demand, impacting asset pricing and the flow of global capital [12][17]. - The report raises two critical questions post-"Black Monday": whether the U.S. economy is truly facing a recession and if the global technology cycle and dollar trends are reversing [12]. Section 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that there may be rebound opportunities for U.S. stocks following the recent volatility, with potential upward movement in Treasury yields and a short-term decline in the dollar index [18][21]. - The analysis indicates that the current phase of the technology cycle is still in its early stages, with capital expenditures accelerating, which could lead to a favorable environment for risk assets [21].

证券研究报告·A 股公司简评 计算机设备 AI 应用加速落地，跨境支付与 网证改革打开成长新空间 | | 【中信建投计算机设备Ⅱ】新大陆 | | --- | --- | | 19.04.21 | (000997):业绩符合预期，商户运营及金 | | | 融服务稳健成长 | | | 【中信建投计算机设备Ⅱ】新大陆 | | 18.12.05 | (000997):深度报告：收单收入稳步提 | | | 升，打造一站式商户服务平台 | 核心观点 公司深耕人工智能领域多年，技术与场景兼备；积极把握 A I 应用浪潮，推动 AI 与商户运营与智能终端深度融合，商业化、规 模化落地可期，有望核心受益 DeepSeek 等技术突破带来的 A I 商 业化提速红利。第三方支付行业供需格局逐步改善，公司作为第 三方支付 IT 龙头，跨境支付与网证改革有望带来业务新增量。公 司经营业绩稳健与低估值错配，叠加大力度回购计划，不仅为公 司构筑坚实的安全垫，也彰显长期发展信心，给予"买入"评级。 简评 积极把握 AI应用浪潮，场景明确、落地加速。（1）持续深 耕 AI 领域。自 2013 年起，公司投身人工智能领域，逐步构建起 具有完全 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [5]. Core Insights - The personal pension system is being expanded from 36 pilot cities to nationwide, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 51.7% in personal pension fund size and a staggering 373.7% increase in cumulative sales of personal pension financial products by the end of Q4 2024 [1]. - The inclusion of index funds in the personal pension product catalog has led to a 59.2% year-on-year and 43.9% quarter-on-quarter increase in the number of personal pension fund products by the end of Q4 2024 [1]. - The implementation plan for promoting long-term capital market entry has been released, aiming to gradually increase the investment ratio of social security funds in equity assets and to refine the long-term assessment mechanisms for pension funds [1]. Summary by Sections First Pillar Pension Tracking - As of Q4 2024, the entrusted investment scale of the basic pension insurance fund reached 2.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.1% [2][11]. Third Pillar Pension Tracking Pension Financial Products Tracking - By the end of Q4 2024, the number of pension target funds and pension financial products stood at 270 and 51, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 3.4% and no change [18]. - The scale of pension target funds was 602 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.5% [19]. Personal Pension Tracking - The number of personal pension funds and personal pension financial products reached 285 and 30, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 59.2% and 30.4% [57]. - The scale of personal pension funds was 9.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 51.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.5% [3][57]. Pension Financial Policy Tracking - The report highlights the national-level policies aimed at promoting the development of a multi-tiered pension insurance system and improving social security benefits [11]. Pension Industry Financial Tracking - The report provides insights into the market structure and performance of various pension financial products, including the performance of pension target funds and the distribution of pension financial products among different financial institutions [42][50].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a stable economic growth target of around 5% for 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to address complex global challenges while maintaining confidence in domestic economic strengths, highlighting a clear focus on boosting consumption, expanding employment, and stabilizing the real estate market [3][4]. - It outlines ten key areas of focus for 2025, including consumption enhancement, modern industrial construction, and risk prevention [14][19]. Summary by Sections Overall Situation Assessment - The global economic environment is increasingly complex and severe, with insufficient growth momentum and rising geopolitical tensions impacting trade and technology sectors [4]. - There is a recognition of domestic challenges, including weak consumer demand and employment pressures, but also a strong belief in China's institutional advantages and long-term economic potential [4][5]. Main Economic Goals - The GDP growth target is set at approximately 5%, with a CPI growth target of around 2% [7][9]. - The fiscal deficit is projected at 4% of GDP, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [8][9]. Main Policy Directions - The report advocates for a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of adjusting policies dynamically based on changing circumstances [11][12]. - It stresses the need for policies to focus on improving people's livelihoods and stimulating consumption to drive economic growth [12][13]. Key Work Areas for 2025 - The ten key work areas include boosting consumption, modern industrial development, and risk prevention, with specific measures outlined for each area [14][19]. - For consumption, around 18 specific measures are proposed to expand domestic demand and enhance investment efficiency [15][19]. - Employment stabilization efforts include support for labor-intensive industries and enhancing job opportunities for vulnerable groups [16][19]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and managing local government debt risks [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the automation equipment industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the Genie Operator-1 model (GO-1) by Zhiyuan Robotics, which introduces the innovative ViLLA architecture, enabling robots to learn from human video and achieve rapid generalization with small samples, thus lowering the barriers to embodied intelligence [1][2][19]. - The release of the Lingxi X2 robot showcases significant advancements in motion control and interaction capabilities, with a modular design that enhances its performance in complex tasks [3][33]. - The report emphasizes the rapid development of the humanoid robot industry, with manufacturers planning to initiate mass production of thousands to tens of thousands of units by 2026, suggesting a focus on companies with cost-effective component supply capabilities and technological advantages [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Development of Zhiyuan Robotics - Zhiyuan Robotics has achieved mass production of general-purpose embodied robots since its establishment in February 2023, with significant milestones including the launch of the first commercial humanoid robots and the establishment of a manufacturing facility [9][10]. 2. Launch of GO-1 Model - The GO-1 model, released on March 10, 2025, utilizes the ViLLA architecture to enhance robot learning capabilities by leveraging human video data for training, which significantly reduces training costs and accelerates the adoption of embodied intelligence [19][23][30]. 3. Introduction of Lingxi X2 Robot - The Lingxi X2 robot, launched on March 11, 2025, features a modular design and advanced motion control capabilities, allowing it to perform complex actions such as cycling and dancing, while also achieving rapid interaction responses [3][35][33]. 4. Humanoid Robot Industry Chain Analysis - The report outlines the expected mass production plans for humanoid robots, recommending a focus on companies with strong supply chain capabilities and technological advantages, highlighting key players in the industry [3][36].