分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -11% -5% 0% 6% 12% 17% 23% 28% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,206.92 | -0.14 | 深证成指 | 9,885.65 | -0.12 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 3,768.97 | -0.16 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 3,583.49 | -0.17 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,427.10 | -0.0 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 有色金属医药行业领涨 A 股小幅震荡 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：观望情绪提升 A 股宽幅震荡》 2025-01-03 《市场分析：家电消费行业走强 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2025-01-03 风险提示：海外超预期衰退，影响国内经济复苏进程；国内政 策及经济复苏进度不及预期 ；宏观经济超预期扰动；政策超预期 变化；国际关系变化带来经济环境变化；海外宏观流动性超预期 收紧；海外波动加剧。 《市场分析：防御行业走强 A 股震荡整固》 2024-12-31 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 06 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周一（01 月 06 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低 开后震荡回落，盘中股指在 3185 点附近获得支撑，随后股指企稳回 升，午后维持震荡，盘中医药、电源设备、有色金属以及医疗器械等 行业表现较好；商业百货、酿酒、食品饮料以及通信服务等行业表现 较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 06 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -2% 4% 9% 15% 21% 26% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.09 2025.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,211.43 | -1.57 | | 深证成指 | | 9,897.12 | -1.89 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,775.16 | -1.18 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,589.44 | -0.97 | | 中证 | 5 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 观望情绪提升 A 股宽幅震荡 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：家电消费行业走强 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2025-01-03 《市场分析：防御行业走强 A 股震荡整固》 2024-12-31 《市场分析：金融煤炭行业走强 A 股小幅上 行》 2024-12-30 联系人： 李智 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 03 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周五（01 月 03 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、宽幅震荡，早盘股指高开后 快速上行，盘中股指在 3269 点附近遭遇阻力，随后股指震荡回落， 盘中黄金、煤炭、有色金属以及医药等行业表现较好；半导体、软件 开发、互联网服务、通信设备以及证券等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基 本呈现宽幅震荡的运行特征。创业板市场周五震荡回落，创业板成分 指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 周五 A 股市场冲高遇阻、宽幅震荡，早盘股指高开后快速上行，盘中 股指在 3269 点附近遭遇阻力，随后股指震荡回落，盘中黄金、煤炭、 有色金属以 ...

食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业 2024 年 12 月月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 弱于大市(调降) 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 03 日 食品饮料相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《食品饮料行业年度策略：2025 年食品饮料 行业投资策略》 2024-12-17 《食品饮料行业月报：板块微幅反弹，行情呈 上下拉锯状 》 2024-12-02 《食品饮料行业年度策略：行业中枢下沉，寻 找相对高增的资产》 2024-11-27 联系人：李智 投资要点： 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 逻辑缺位，行情掉头，量缩价降显著 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共12页 11797 -24% -17% -10% -3% 4% 11% 19% 26% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.08 2024.12 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18 楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 ...

——家居行业专题研究 家居 分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 longyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 家居行业专题报告：地产及消费政策支 持下，家居板块有望受益 证券研究报告-行业专题研究 强于大市(上调) 发布日期：2025 年 01 月 02 日 风险提示：政策不及预期的风险；房地产景气度不及预期的风险；需 求不及预期的风险；行业竞争加剧的风险；原材料价格大幅上涨的风险。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共22页 投资要点： -29% -21% -13% -6% 2% 10% 18% 26% 2024.01 2024.05 2024.08 2024.12 家居 沪深300 家居相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 《家居行业深度分析：家居产业链分析之河 南概况》 2024-04-30 联系人：李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1 座22 楼 ⚫ 地产及促消费政策持续落地： ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,262.56 points, down 2.66%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,088.06 points, down 3.14% [19] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices is currently at 14.23 times and 36.04 times respectively, which is at the median level over the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [23] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 14,098 billion, which is above the median of the daily trading volume over the past three years [23] Group 2 - The report highlights that over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with sectors such as commercial retail, jewelry, food and beverage, and tourism showing positive performance, while sectors like semiconductors, software development, and insurance faced significant declines [6] - The report suggests short-term investment opportunities in the home appliance, food and beverage, and commercial retail sectors [23] - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau indicate a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [23]

Key Points - The report highlights the significant impact of government policies on economic growth, emphasizing the need for high-quality development and technological self-reliance by 2025 [2][7] - The manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1, indicating a slight decrease, while the non-manufacturing PMI shows an increase to 52.2, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [2][7] - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with defensive sectors showing strength, while financial and coal industries are also performing well [5][8] - The solar photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with a 7.43% decline in December, underperforming compared to the broader market [18] - The report discusses the potential of the 0BB technology in the solar industry, which is expected to drive demand for related equipment and materials [20] - The report suggests that the food and beverage sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with only specific segments like liquor and snacks showing positive trends [38][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the photovoltaic industry relative to the CSI 300 index [16]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant adjustment, with a 7.43% decline in December, underperforming the CSI 300 index. All sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry saw declines, with the most significant drop in solar cell prices [16][51][52]. - The report highlights the need for structural adjustments in the supply side, as production cuts in polysilicon and silicon wafers are stabilizing prices across the photovoltaic supply chain [4][5][66]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to address "involution" competition and accelerate the construction of new energy bases, which is expected to lead to differentiated competition and technological upgrades in the industry [3][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic industry index saw a significant drop in December, with an average daily trading volume of 25.04 billion yuan, a substantial decrease compared to previous months [51]. - All sub-sectors within the photovoltaic industry experienced declines, with the largest drop in solar cell prices at 19.29% [52]. Industry Dynamics - In November, domestic demand for photovoltaic installations grew steadily, with an increase of 25 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.26%. Cumulatively, from January to November, the total new installations reached 206.30 GW, a 25.88% increase year-on-year [17][40]. - The report notes that the export of solar battery components increased significantly in quantity but decreased in value, indicating a price reduction trend in the overseas market [63]. Key Company Announcements - The report suggests focusing on companies in the photovoltaic glass, integrated component manufacturers, polysilicon materials, and electronic silver paste sectors, particularly those with clear capacity clearance expectations [5][48]. - The report also mentions that the introduction of polysilicon futures is expected to stabilize the market and improve price transparency [60].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3413 points, leading to a decline in the index [4][23] - The performance of various sectors varied, with industries such as liquor, gas, jewelry, and shipping ports showing positive performance, while semiconductor, software development, communication equipment, and securities sectors lagged [4][23] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index is currently at 14.46 times and 37.23 times respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [23] Group 2 - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 13,588 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [23] - Recent policy signals from the Political Bureau meeting suggest a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, boosting consumption, and implementing more aggressive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [23] - The focus of market dynamics is expected to shift towards domestic macro policies and their impact on market confidence and expectations, with an emphasis on supporting technological innovation and industrial upgrades [23] Group 3 - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in the liquor, gas, coal, and shipping port sectors [23] - The report indicates that over 90% of stocks in the two markets declined, with only the gas and liquor industries showing slight increases, while semiconductor and securities sectors saw significant outflows of funds [17][23] - The report highlights the need to closely monitor economic data recovery and external factors affecting the market [23]