早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日 星期二 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一两市主要指数震荡整理，收盘涨跌不一，商业航天板块继续走强。两市成交额 | | | | | 2.13 万亿元，变化不大。中证 500 指数收 7430 点，跌 28 点，跌幅-0.38%；中证 | | | | | 1000 指数收 7594 点，跌 11 点，跌幅-0.15%；沪深 300 指数收 4639 点，跌 17 点， | | | | | 跌幅-0.38%；上证 50 指数收 3034 点，跌 10 点，跌幅-0.35%。行业与主题 ETF 中 | | | | | 涨幅居前的是航天 ETF、通用航空 ETF 基金、航空 ETF、中韩半导体 ETF、军工龙头 | | | | | ETF，跌幅居前的是稀有金属 ET ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、野村预计，美联储新主席将在 6 月主导一次降息，但 FOM 内部可能强烈反对进 | | | | | 一步降息，可能引发美联储与特朗普政府之间的紧张关系。这种不确定性预计将在 | | | | 明年 | 7 月至 11 月集中爆发，届时市场可能出现"逃离美国资产"的趋势。 | | | | | 2、以色列总理将在美国佛州分别与美国国务卿和美国总统会面，可能与美方讨论 | | | | | 再次打击伊朗导弹项目的问题。伊朗总统表示，伊朗正面临与美国、以色列和欧洲 | | | | | 的"全面战争"。伊朗将对任何新的美以"侵略行为"做出更加果断的回应。 | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Short - term silver prices are experiencing violent fluctuations. The CME's increase in precious metal futures margins reflects concerns about market volatility. Investors are advised to assess their risk tolerance and control investment risks. Gold has a relatively smaller fluctuation range due to its slower previous rise [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Market Performance**: On December 26, 2025, London spot silver rose over 10% to $79 per ounce. On December 29, it opened above $80 per ounce, reaching a high of $83.971 per ounce and then quickly falling to near $75 per ounce [3]. - **Margin Adjustment**: The CME will comprehensively raise the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29. The initial margins of COMEX100 - ounce gold futures (GC) Non - HRP and HRP contracts will be raised by 10%, and those of COMEX5000 - ounce silver futures (SI) Non - HRP and HRP contracts will be raised by over 13% [3]. - **Historical Reference**: In 2011, the CME raised silver futures margins five times from April 25 to May 5, increasing the initial margin requirement from 6% to 12%, which led to a sharp short - term decline in silver futures prices [3].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE3 | 月合约结算价 | 64.24 | 涨 | 23 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.49 | 涨 | 29 | 点，7 | 月 | 66.58 | 涨 | 31 | 点；成 | 交约 | 2.6 | 万手。 | | | | | | | | | | 郑棉总成交 | 452688 | 手，持仓 | 1132769 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘螺纹热卷收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政 | | | | | 策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债 | | | | | 券效益。会议要求，2026 年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，大力 | | | | | 提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育壮大新动 | | | | | 能，进一步增加财政科技投入等。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，1-11 月份，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现利润总额 ...

Group 1 - The report provides the daily customs clearance data of Ganqimao Port from December 8th to 27th, 2025, including the number of customs clearance vehicles, AGV numbers, the total number of customs clearance vehicles, the increase or decrease, and short - haul freight rates [1] - As of December 27th, the average daily number of customs clearance vehicles in December was 1464, and the short - haul freight rates showed a slight decline. The customs clearance vehicles at Ganqimao Port maintained a high - level operation [1] Group 2 - There is a chart showing the daily customs clearance vehicles and monthly average customs clearance level of 288 Port [4]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 1 元至 1735 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 7334 手至 16.46 万手，空头持仓减少 6129 手至 18.83 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 106.89 万吨，较上周减少 11.08 万吨，环比 减少 9.39%。尿素港口样本库存量 17.7 万吨，环比+3.9 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | | | | 4、印度 NFL 发布 ...

Group 1 - Report Core View - On December 26, 2025, the London spot silver rose by over 10% and reached $79 per ounce. The CME Group announced a significant margin adjustment, increasing the initial margins for gold, silver, and lithium futures contracts after the close on December 29. The initial margins for COMEX 100 - ounce gold futures (GC) Non - HRP and HRP contracts were raised by 10%, and those for COMEX 5000 - ounce silver futures (SI) Non - HRP and HRP contracts were increased by over 13%. The market believes this reflects the exchange's deep concern about the abnormal fluctuations in the precious metal market [2]. - On December 29, the London spot silver opened above $80 per ounce, reaching a high of $83.971 per ounce and then quickly dropping to near $75 per ounce. In 2011, the CME Group also raised silver futures margins multiple times, causing a sharp short - term decline in silver futures prices. Given the short - term volatility of silver, investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance and control investment risks. Gold has a relatively smaller fluctuation range due to its slower previous price increase [2]. Group 2 - Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report.

Group 1 - As of December 26, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port continued to rise by 200,000 tons to 3.88 million tons, still 777,500 tons short of the highest inventory point of 4.6575 million tons on February 28, 2025 [1] - The inventory data from September 27, 2025, to December 26, 2025, shows fluctuations, with increases and decreases in different periods. For example, the inventory increased by 160,000 tons on September 27, 2025, and decreased by 950,000 tons on October 7, 2025 [4] Group 2 - No industry investment rating is provided in the report - The core view of the report is to present the current situation and historical data of the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port, showing the trend of inventory changes [1][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of pure benzene is expected to be oscillating bullish in the short - term, with the 03 contract reference range of 5420 - 5600 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus should be on port arrivals and future US dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or buy on dips [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 rose 46 yuan to 5501 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5325 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the spot price in Shandong was 5167 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan). Long positions increased by 505 lots to 17,300 lots, and short positions increased by 500 lots to 20,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: In November, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.93%. There were many planned overhauls in December. In October, the pure benzene import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January, affecting a pure benzene production capacity of 600,000 tons [1] - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 293,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous inventory of 280,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.6%. From December 15 to December 21, the estimated arrival was about 33,000 tons, and the pick - up was about 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of styrene was 69.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1%; the operating rate of phenol was 75%, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the operating rate of aniline was 61.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.6%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 59.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. Caprolactam plants started self - disciplined production cuts, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into production [1] - **Import Data**: In November 2025, China's pure benzene monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 5,071,144.069 tons. The monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [1] - **Crude Oil**: Due to the Western Christmas holiday, international crude oil futures were closed for one day without settlement prices. The 2602 contract of China INE crude oil futures rose 0.4 to 443 yuan/barrel and rose 1.7 to 444.7 yuan/barrel at night [1] - **Economic Data**: The US November consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The opening of the arbitrage window between Asia and America may ease the future arrival pressure, and crude oil has rebounded from a low level recently. The pure benzene port has a slight inventory build - up, but the speed has slowed down, and the downstream operating rate on the demand side has declined. The transaction price in Shandong continued to rise over the weekend. The short - term pure benzene price is oscillating bullish [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Wait and see or buy on dips [1]