1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the stock market (Wande A-Share Index) generally declined, with the Wande A-Share Index closing down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, the main contracts of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rising 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.04%. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and the performance of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Thursday, the main contract of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, fluctuated horizontally in the morning, and rose in the afternoon. The 30 - year variety showed a strong trend. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.04% [1]. - **Stock Market**: On Thursday, the Wande A - Share Index opened lower, fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, closed down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, forming a doji candlestick, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 354 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 64.5 billion yuan [1]. - **Funding Market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32% (the same as the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48% (compared to 1.49% in the previous trading day) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds dropped 1.35 basis points to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 0.62 basis points to 1.57%, the 10 - year dropped 0.24 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30 - year dropped 1.20 basis points to 2.27% [1]. - **US Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 231,000, compared with an estimate of 212,000 and a previous value of 209,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits in the week of January 24 was 1.844 million, with an estimate of 1.85 million [1]. - **European Central Bank Interest Rates**: On February 5, the European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - **Economic Data**: The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.7%) [1]. - **Policy Signals**: On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". Recently, the governor of the central bank said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2].

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5224 元/吨，日涨幅 0.27%，夜盘收 5241 元/吨；SR609 合约 | | | | | 收盘价 5227 元/吨，日涨幅 0.25%，夜盘收 5250 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5256 元/吨，上涨 2 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间为 | | | | | 5270~5370 元/吨，少数上调 10~30 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5110~ 5180 元/吨， | | | | | 加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5580~5800 元/吨，报价持稳。 | | | | | 2.咨询机构 Stonex 近日发布报告，预计 2026/27 榨季巴西中南部地区食糖产量为 | | | | | 4070 万吨，较此前预估的 4150 万吨减少 80 万吨。预计 202 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周四铁矿收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 2128 万吨，平均日产 193.5 万吨，日产环比下降 2.2%；生铁 1915 万吨，平均日产 174.1 万吨，日产环比下降 3.0%；钢材 2130 万吨，平均日产 193.6 万吨，日产环比增长 3.2%。 2、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量 1471 万吨，环比上一旬减少 142 万吨，下降 8.8%；比年初增加 57 万吨，增长 4.0%；比上月同旬增加 57 万吨， 增长 4.0%；比去年同旬减少 64 万吨，下降 4.2%，比前年同旬增加 251 万吨，增长 20.6%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 3、Mysteel：1 月全国开工 1329 个项目，总 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic investment in the macro and financial sector is rated as "downward" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The world is on the verge of a "capital war" with high geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility, and the US is like a powder keg on the verge of civil war. The expected policy of the Fed's nominee chair will have a negative impact on global equity and commodity assets. The US's actions have brought great uncertainty to the global economy, and the Fed's uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend. The consumption trend in the US is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis. The US's adjustment of its economic strategy and the "tech self - cannibalism" era will also affect the market. The US's policy shift and the decline of the stock market may have a negative impact on the global economy and US consumption [4][5] Summary by Related Content Important Information - Deutsche Bank warns of the "tech self - cannibalism" era, with most tech stocks dropping up to 80% from their highs. Only Alphabet in the S&P 500 has soared 75% with a $1.7 trillion market - value increase, while the other six of the "Big Seven" have declined between 5% - 25% [3] - US momentum stocks experienced the fourth - largest single - day sell - off in the past decade. Investors sold growth and momentum stocks and flocked to value and traditional defensive stocks. The chemical sector had the fourth - largest single - day gain in a decade [3] - The software industry has lost $1 trillion in market value this year. Short - sellers targeted basic automation service companies. Giants like Microsoft and Oracle fell over 15%, and small and medium - sized software stocks dropped over 30%. Short - sellers increased their short positions [3] - US tech stocks have been in a three - month slump, making the Russell 1000 Value Index (RLV) perform strongly. Historically, RLV outperformed the growth index significantly only in 2022's bear market and 2001's early Internet bubble burst [3] - Nvidia, Amazon, etc. participated in OpenAI's $100 - billion financing. OpenAI is crucial for tech giants' valuations. Without continuous funding, it may lead to a 50% - 80% market - value shrinkage for tech giants. If OpenAI cuts spending on cloud providers, they could lose $1 trillion [3] - Google plans a capital expenditure of $175 - $185 billion in 2026 for servers and data centers, focusing on AI. Its CEO said Gemini is an "engine" rather than a terminator [3] - Over $17.7 billion in tech company loans became non - performing in the past four weeks. The total non - performing debt in the US tech industry reached about $46.9 billion, the highest since October 2022. The crisis has spread to private credit [3] - All 11 Democrats on the US Senate Banking Committee asked to postpone the nomination process of Fed nominee chair Kevin Warsh until the criminal investigation of current chair Powell and other Fed governors ends [3] Global Economic Logic - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio warns of a "capital war" and US civil - war risk, and investors should beware of capital control risks. The expected policy of Fed nominee chair Warsh will negatively impact global assets. US actions have brought great uncertainty to the global economy. Nomura says Fed uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend in July - November 2026. Goldman warns of a consumption trend similar to 2008's financial crisis. The US is adjusting its economic strategy. The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divide. The "tech self - cannibalism" era is here, and there was a large - scale sell - off of US momentum stocks [4] Impact on Assets and Economy - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes. Warsh's policy indicates a major shift in Fed monetary policy, creating a strong liquidity contraction expectation for equity assets. The Nasdaq futures may trigger a new wave of tech - stock selling, and the decline of the US stock market may negatively affect US consumption. The global economy started to decline after reaching its peak in late 2025 [5]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 06 日星期五 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.04%，收于2268 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价小幅下跌。东北地区深加工 | | | | | 企业收购价2171元/吨，较前一日跌1元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2303元/吨，较 | | | | | 前一日跌3元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价2 | | | | | 270-2280元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2400元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 6 日星期周五 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 5 日，有色板块再度大跌，文华指数走弱，植物油板块转跌，但是跌势不大。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8104 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.44%，日减仓 | | | | | 12674 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8046 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.35%，日增 | | | | | 仓 9525 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9042 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.05%，日减 | | | | | 仓 13432 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 901 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 【行情复盘】 | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 周四夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 20 元至 6122 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6235 元/吨 （-15），华南瓶片价格 6250 元/吨（-50）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 825 手至 7.5 万手，空头持仓增加 733 手至 7.8 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【重要资讯】 | | 能源与化 | | | 30.3 万吨，环比+0.38 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.4%，环比+0.8%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5662 元， 环比-151 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-26 元/吨，环比+22 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5.57 万吨，环比+10.44%。 2025 年 1-12 月累计出口量 645.45 万吨，较去年同期增加 60 ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 6 日星期五 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.08%报 4798.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 16.64% ...

林大华期货有限公司 IN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. EIA原油周度数据报告 2026年2月5日 研究员:王琛 从业资格:F03104620 交易咨询资格:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 数据解读:美国能源信息署数据显示,截止2026年1月30日当周,包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量8.35512亿桶, 比前一周下降324.1万桶:美国商业原油库存量4.20299亿桶,比前一周下降345.5万桶;美国汽油库存总量2.57898亿桶, 比前一周增长68.4万桶; 馏分油库存量为1.27368亿桶,比前一周下降55.2万桶。受摩欣原油库存下降与美伊局势反复共 同影响,原油地缘风险溢价上行。美国周一宣布与印度达成贸易协议,将美国对印度商品的关税从50%的减至18%,作为 交换,印度同意降低贸易壁垒、停止购买俄罗斯石油,然度境内统厂、能源安全与原油品质差异使得完全"立即停购" 在操作上存在过渡期和不确定性,美伊谈判前仍表现出反复迹象,她缘仍是短期影响油价方向关键,美伊局势有定论 前,预计短期价格震荡向上趋势,关注周五美伊谈判情况。 | | 2026年1月30日 ...

市场快讯 -- 金属板块资金流出叠加严监管持续,碳酸锂触及跌停 分位管理。 教据未源:wind,格林大华期1 研究员:王琛 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 士剛情况下,我公司个歌張吉甲的牡阿內合对任何技英册硕士任何形式的担保,授受 ● 截止2月5日上午收盘,碳酸锂主力合约132380元/吨 触及跌停,日内减仓1.8万手,持仓量34.19万手。 ● 今日贵金属、有色金属相关合约普遍下跌,板块资 金流出明显,碳酸锂受影响承压下行。 ● 政策方面,广期所仍在持续加强风险管理,倒查账 户持仓,周内对多晶硅违反持仓限制账户进行纪律 处分。春节假期临近,多头平仓离场意愿增强,盘 面下行压力增加,目前主力合约前二十家期货公司 多空持仓比0.67。近期预计13-15万/吨区间宽幅震荡。 关注周度库存数据。 ● 策略方面可选择卖出宽跨期权组合,期货方面以短 线操作或观望为主。 风险提示:春节假期临近,关注交易所政策,做好 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 > 碳酸锂 2026年2月5日 ...