Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Black (Coking Coal and Coke) Sector: Bearish [1] 2. Core View - The coking coal and coke market sentiment continues to weaken following the fundamentals. The double - coking market is waiting for the winter storage in December to potentially improve the supply - demand pattern [1] 3. Key Points from Different Aspects Market Performance - Coking coal main contract (Jm2601) closed at 1071.0, down 1.24% compared to the daytime session opening; at night on November 27, it closed at 1057.0, down 1.31% compared to the daytime session closing. Coke main contract (J2601) closed at 1607.0, down 0.74% compared to the daytime session opening; at night on November 27, it closed at 1570.0, down 2.30% compared to the daytime session closing [1] Important News - Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption. The goal is to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027, forming 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 billion - level consumption hotspots [1] Auction Information - On November 11, 2025, in the auction of Qinxin lean coal in Qinxin Group, Changzhi, Shanxi, the starting price was 1480 yuan/ton, with 4000 tons sold at 1480 yuan/ton and 36000 tons unsold. The previous auction on November 26 had a starting price of 1530 yuan/ton, with 300 tons sold at 1530 yuan/ton and 2700 tons unsold. The average transaction price decreased by 50 yuan/ton [1] - On November 27, 2025, in the auction of coking coal from Zhujiazhuang Mine of Liliu Group in Lvliang, Shanxi, the starting price was 1500 yuan/ton, and 2000 tons were all sold at 1500 - 1510 yuan/ton. The previous auction on November 3 had a starting price of 1350 yuan/ton, and 3000 tons were all sold at 1600 - 1680 yuan/ton. The average transaction price decreased by 135 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The coking coal spot market remains weak. This week, the raw coal output of 523 mines decreased, and the inventory reached a high level. Downstream demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, with the iron - making water output decreasing by 16000 tons to 2346800 tons this week. The steel mill profitability rate dropped to 35%, a new low this year [1] Trading Strategy - For coking coal, the support level of the main contract has moved down. The support for the main contract is at 1030, and the support for the Jm2605 contract is at 1100 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "volatile" [2] Report's Core View - The price of pure benzene is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with the 03 contract reference range of 5300 - 5650 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and future US dollar pure benzene market transaction prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 dropped 16 yuan to 5436 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5320 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the spot price in Shandong was 5245 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). Long positions decreased by 407 lots to 16,300 lots, and short positions increased by 116 lots to 19,100 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In October, China's pure benzene production was 1.9363 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In November, the planned maintenance was 50,000 tons, with limited supply reduction. In October, the pure benzene import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January, affecting 600,000 tons of pure benzene production capacity [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the sample ports in Jiangsu was 164,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.56%; a year - on - year increase of 39,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.20%. During the statistical period, about 45,000 tons arrived, 12,000 tons were unloading and not included in the statistics, and about 28,000 tons were picked up. The visible ship arrivals in the next period are about 105,000 tons, but considering the berth unloading capacity, the expected arrival is 60,000 tons [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 68.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of phenol was 79%, a month - on - month increase of 11.4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 88.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the operating rate of aniline was 75.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 55.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5%. Caprolactam factories have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there may be a reduction in pure benzene demand in December and January [2] - Other: A factory in Shandong plans to shut down its disproportionation unit at the beginning of December due to low disproportionation processing margins, with a monthly production decline of about 50%. The international oil price rose slightly. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2601 contract rose 2.3 to 445.1 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 451.6 yuan/barrel at night. The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting suppress the temporarily warming market sentiment [2] Market Logic - Recently, the gasoline cracking profit in Europe and the United States has declined, and the blending oil demand has weakened. The pure benzene port has accumulated inventory this week, and it is expected that the East China port will continue the inventory accumulation trend in the short - term. The operating rate of phenol in the demand side has rebounded significantly, and the weighted operating rate of downstream products has increased. The short - term price is mainly volatile [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a short - term volatile trading mindset [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term outlook for precious metals is that they may experience wide - range oscillations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Precious Metals Market Conditions - COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.02% at 946.90 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.29% to 12490 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of November 27, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 1045.43 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, also remained unchanged at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 13.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 9.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1% [1]. - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes showed that the Governing Council's assessment of the inflation outlook remained largely unchanged; the outlook was still unclear, and this uncertainty could also be a reason to keep interest rates unchanged. Most members believed that the inflation outlook faced two - way risks [1]. Market Logic - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, slightly lower than the estimated 225,000, but the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose slightly to 1.96 million, indicating increasing difficulty for the unemployed to find re - employment. - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7%; retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises on average lost 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. - The latest weak economic data has kept the probability of a Fed rate cut in December above 80%. On November 27, the US dollar index fluctuated widely horizontally, closing at 99.55. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, and COMEX silver rose slightly. Precious metals may oscillate slightly more in the short term [1]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals may experience wide - range oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly oscillatory The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - On Thursday, iron ore closed up and closed down at night [1] Important Information - From January to October 2025, the total profit of national large - scale industrial enterprises was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% The total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [1] - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost identification of disorderly price competition The NDRC will continue to promote relevant work with relevant departments to manage disorderly price competition among enterprises [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 855,710 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons or 0.7% The total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons or 2.25% The weekly consumption was 888,000 tons, a decrease of 0.7% Among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 0.3% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates increased by 2.3% week - on - week [1] Market Logic - During the policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December This week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased The daily output of molten iron this week was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 160,000 tons The profitability rate of steel mills was 35%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6% [1] Trading Strategy - Maintain the view that the short - term trend is expected to be mainly oscillatory The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Oscillation" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the macro - policy vacuum period, and the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to oscillate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and during the night session, rebar closed up while hot - rolled coils closed down [2] Important Information - From January to October 2025, the total profit of national industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [2] - On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost assessment of disorderly price competition [2] - From January to October, the total profit of the steel industry was 105.32 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [2] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons or 0.7%; the total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons or 2.25%; the weekly consumption was 8.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.7% [2] - In December 2025, the production plan of household air conditioners was 14.11 million units, a 22.3% decrease compared with the actual figure of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 8.13 million units, a decrease of 8.2%; the production plan of washing machines was 7.94 million units, a decrease of 1.9% [2] Market Logic - During the macro - policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. This week, rebar production decreased, hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to decline, but the decline rate slowed down. Overall, supply and demand were both weak [2] Trading Strategy - Maintain the previous view: rebar and hot - rolled coils will continue to oscillate. The first pressure level for the rebar main contract is 3150, and the 3000 level is still a strong support. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or hold an empty position [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be oscillatory, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, with the 30 - year contract opening lower. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.01%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.01%. The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, rose in the morning session and then declined, continued to oscillate and decline in the afternoon, closing down 0.01% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.72 trillion yuan, a slight decline from 1.80 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1][2] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 56.4 billion yuan [1] - **Funding Market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, down from 1.47% in the previous trading day [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly increased compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year increased by 1.01 BP to 1.63%, the 10 - year increased by 0.75 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.75 BP to 2.20% [1] - **Industrial Enterprise Data**: From January to October, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (1 - 9 months: 2.4%, 2024: 2.1%); the total profit was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (1 - 9 months: 3.2%, 2024: - 3.3%). In October, due to factors such as a higher base in the same period last year and a rapid increase in financial expenses, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [1] - **Automobile Consumption Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce will promote pilot reforms in automobile circulation and consumption, expand the circulation of second - hand cars, and expand the automobile aftermarket [1] - **Government Meeting**: The State Council executive meeting on November 27 listened to the report on the comprehensive supervision of promoting high - quality development, arranged to promote the provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance, reviewed and approved the draft "Regulations on Promoting National Reading", and discussed the draft amendment to the "Certified Public Accountant Law of the People's Republic of China" [1] Market Logic - The increase in the base in the same period last year and the rapid growth of financial expenses led to a 5.5% year - on - year decline in the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in October. As of the end of October, the asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 58.0%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and the same as at the end of September. The average collection period of accounts receivable of manufacturing enterprises above designated size was 71.2 days, an increase of 2.8 days year - on - year and 0.8 days from the end of September [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 28 日星期四 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2601 价格上涨 19 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating [1] - Red dates: Oscillating with a weak bias [3] - Rubber: Oscillating (Natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, Synthetic rubber) [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Domestic sugar market fundamentals have limited news, with new sugar gradually entering the market and general trading atmosphere. Technically, the short - term trend has improved, but there is pressure near the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands. Consider short - term trading strategies such as holding or partially closing SR601 short positions and buying put options [1]. - Red dates: After the negative factors are digested, the downward trend of red date futures prices weakens. However, due to the seasonal inventory accumulation period and unsold upstream goods, there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak. Continue to be bearish and adopt a strategy of short - selling on upward rebounds [3]. - Rubber: Natural rubber has long - short factors intertwined. Supply - side support exists as domestic production areas enter the off - season and Southeast Asian weather is unstable, but there is pressure from increased overseas arrivals and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental contradictions with stable raw material supply and general downstream demand. Pay attention to price ranges for different rubber varieties [4]. Group 3: Content Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - SR601 contract closed at 5403 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.45% daily, and 5411 yuan/ton at night. SR605 contract closed at 5325 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.30% daily, and 5335 yuan/ton at night [1]. Important Information - The external market was closed yesterday with no quote. - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi rose by 9 yuan/ton to 5397 yuan/ton. New sugar in Guangxi was priced at 5580 - 5650 yuan/ton, and Yunnan's sugar prices were also given. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, 20 sugar mills have started crushing, 25 less than the same period last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 146,000 tons, 260,500 tons less than last year. - It is estimated that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, up 14.9% year - on - year, and sugar production will be 1.075 million tons, up 18.9% year - on - year. - As of November 23, 2025/26 in India's Maharashtra state, 154 sugar mills have started crushing, 34 more than the same period last year, with 15.177 million tons of cane crushed and 1.1592 million tons of sugar produced. - StoneX predicts that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will be 620.5 million tons, and sugar production will be 41.5 million tons, up 3.3% from the 2025/26 season. - Yesterday, the number of white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 75, a decrease of 7618 from the previous day [1]. Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar was closed yesterday with no quote. - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar rose slightly. Technically, short - covering has improved the trend, and short - term pressure at the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands should be noted [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold or partially close SR601 short positions, close profitable call - selling options at 5600, close profitable bear - spread combinations, and consider buying put options [1]. Red Dates Market Review - CJ601 contract closed at 9150 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.11% daily. CJ605 contract closed at 9295 yuan/ton, up 0.05% daily [3]. Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample warehouses this week was 10,848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week, a 5.01% increase. - In the Hebei market, the price of extra - grade red dates was 9.83 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day. - In the Guangzhou Ruyifang market, 4 trucks of red dates arrived, a decrease of 3 trucks from the previous day [3]. Market Logic - The red - date acquisition in some areas of Xinjiang is completed, and the acquisition in other main producing areas is in the second half. The price in the Hebei sales area has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. After the negative factors are digested, the downward trend weakens, but there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak [3]. Trading Strategy - Hold or partially close CJ601 short positions and short - sell CJ605 on rebounds [3]. Rubber Market Review - RU2601 contract closed at 15,280 yuan/ton on November 27, up 0.56% daily. NR2601 contract closed at 12,205 yuan/ton, up 0.33% daily. BR2601 contract closed at 10,400 yuan/ton, up 0.39% daily [4]. Important Information - The average weekly price of Shanghai full - latex rubber was 14,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1835 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton. - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, an increase of 16,300 tons from the previous period, a 3.60% increase. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 66%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points from the previous week and 13.64 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points from the previous week and 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year. - In October 2025, Thailand's natural - rubber exports to the world were 409,700 tons, a 15.71% increase from the previous month and an 8.88% increase from the same period last year. - The delivery price in the central Shandong region was 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton. - This week, the mainstream sales companies lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis polybutadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The domestic production area has entered the off - season, and the raw - material price is stable, but there is pressure from increased overseas arrivals and weak demand. - Synthetic rubber: The fundamental contradictions of BR futures prices are limited, with sufficient raw - material supply and cautious downstream buying. The cost support is neutral, and the price is unlikely to rise significantly [4]. Trading Strategy - The short - term activity range of the RU main contract is 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton, the NR main contract is 12,100 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the BR is 10,200 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical (bottle chips) sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate with raw materials, and the reference range for the main contract is 5600 - 5780 yuan/ton. A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the main price of bottle chips dropped by 20 yuan to 5640 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell by 30 yuan to 5700 yuan/ton, and that in South China dropped by 30 yuan to 5740 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 679 lots to 5.13 million lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 1850 lots to 4.79 million lots [1] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 33.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 million tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 72.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. The production cost was 5295 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit was - 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [1] - In October 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 52.31 million tons, an increase of 5.53 million tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 533.21 million tons [1] - Concerns about geopolitical instability and Western holiday - induced trading slump led to a slight increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures were closed for the Western Thanksgiving holiday, and ICE Brent crude futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.33%. China INE crude futures 2601 contract rose 2.3 yuan to 445.1 yuan/ton and 6.5 yuan to 451.6 yuan/ton at night [1] - The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and uncertainties about the December FOMC meeting suppressed the temporarily improved market sentiment [1] Market Logic - Last week, the supply of bottle chips changed little, and downstream factories mainly replenished inventory for rigid demand. The expected commissioning of new plants had little impact on the market. Cost support was average, and downstream demand remained for just - in - time replenishment. The increase in bottle chip exports in October and the relaxation of Indian policies were beneficial to polyester products, but had limited impact on bottle chips [1] Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is recommended [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Thursday's intraday rise and subsequent fall of the major indices in the two markets were normal technical movements, and the direction of oscillatory recovery remained unchanged [1][2][3] - The upcoming collective launch of the first batch of 7 Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs on Friday, with a minimum fundraising time of only 3 days, is expected to provide investors with a new tool for investing in "hard technology" and bring more incremental funds to the market [2][3] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to over 80% due to lower-than-expected US retail sales in September and an accelerating pace of layoffs [2][3] - The Chinese stock market is expected to have another prosperous year in 2026, supported by many favorable driving factors such as the development of the innovation sector [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Review - On Thursday, the major indices in the two markets rose intraday and then fell back, closing slightly up or down. The total trading volume in the two markets was 170 million yuan, with little change. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,515 points, down 2 points or -0.05%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,972 points, up 1 point or 0.02%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,951 points, down 13 points or -0.20%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,257 points, up 9 points or 0.12% [1] - Among industry and thematic ETFs, the top gainers were the China - South Korea Semiconductor ETF, Chemical Industry ETF, Science and Technology Innovation New Energy ETF, Integrated Circuit ETF, and Science and Technology Innovation New Materials ETF. The top losers were the Film and Television ETF, Software ETF, and Game and Media ETF [1] - Among the sector indices in the two markets, the top gainers were the silicone concept, papermaking, forestry, POE film, and sodium - battery indices. The top losers were the film and television theater, fishery, e - commerce, cloud service, and cultivated diamond indices [1] - The CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 index futures saw net inflows of 1.6 billion, 1.5 billion, 1.2 billion, and 900 million yuan in sedimentary funds respectively [1] Important Information - Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a document to promote consumption, encouraging platform companies to use AI technology to tap user needs and match and push products and services [1] - As of November 25, Hong Kong stock technology - related ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of 43.9 billion yuan in the past month, with 13 Hang Seng Technology ETFs attracting over 24 billion yuan [1] - Li Auto's CTO stated that the company's self - designed M100 AI inference chip is undergoing large - scale system testing and is expected to be commercialized next year, with a performance - to - cost ratio more than three times that of current high - end chips [1] - The Fed's economic beige book reported that government shutdowns and AI applications led to a weak employment market, and rising tariffs and medical insurance costs pushed up corporate spending, potentially exacerbating inflation concerns [1] - BofA predicted that the AI data center market will grow five - fold to over $1.2 trillion by 2030. Even if NVIDIA's market share drops from 85% to 75%, its absolute earnings will still grow explosively [2] - Multiple tech companies warned of a potential shortage of memory chips in 2026 due to surging demand from AI infrastructure construction, and consumer electronics manufacturers issued potential price - hike warnings [2] - Wenyuanzhixing launched a fully driverless service in Abu Dhabi, attracting global attention in the autonomous driving industry [2] - A MIT study found that AI can replace 11.7% of the US labor market, equivalent to a wage scale of $1.2 trillion in the finance, healthcare, and professional services sectors [2] - During this year's Black Friday, US consumers shifted their shopping focus from discounted big - ticket items to daily necessities, with 85% of consumers expecting tariffs to raise prices [2] - The UK Labour Party proposed a high - tax budget, with the tax burden reaching 38% of GDP, which initially received market welcome but also raised questions about government governance [2] - JPMorgan predicted that Brent crude prices may fall to $30 per barrel in 2027, and Goldman Sachs advised investors to short crude oil immediately, expecting the average WTI crude price to drop to $53 in 2026 [2] Market Logic - The Thursday's intraday rise and subsequent fall of the major indices in the two markets were normal technical movements, and the direction of oscillatory recovery remained unchanged. The launch of the 7 Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETFs is expected to bring incremental funds [2] - Alibaba is making efforts in both AI to B and AI to C directions, and Qianwen APP is expected to create the future AI life entrance [2] - In the first 10 months of this year, the total amount of overseas funds flowing into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion, far exceeding the $11.4 billion in 2024. The Chinese technology sector has become one of the main destinations for foreign capital [2] - Morgan Stanley predicted that the Chinese stock market is expected to continue its strong performance in 2026 [2] - NVIDIA's CEO said that China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2][3] Future Outlook - The major indices' intraday rise and subsequent fall on Thursday were normal technical movements, and the direction of oscillatory recovery remained unchanged. There is unlikely to be an AI bubble in the next three years [3] - Google needs to double its AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet the growing AI service demand [3] - Traders' bullish sentiment towards the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high [3] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to over 80% [3] - The Chinese stock market is expected to have another good year in 2026, supported by favorable factors [3] - For futures trading, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index for range trading [3] Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, with the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December rising to over 80%, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 Index for range trading [3] - For stock index option trading, as the stock index enters an oscillatory recovery period, investors should observe investment opportunities in out - of - the - money long - term call options [3]