Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The combination of anti - involution policies and the new mining law has driven the bottom - up rebound of lithium carbonate prices, but the price spread still shows a back structure. Short - term price surges are mainly influenced by market sentiment and capital. After the exchange restricted the opening of lithium carbonate futures positions, the bulls retreated significantly. The prices of anti - involution commodities will face corrections, and price volatility will remain high. Considering the supply surplus, the price center of lithium carbonate is expected to be between 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. If the production of Yichun lithium mines is restricted, the price center may rise to 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [1][21]. Summary by Section 1. Anti - involution + New Mining Law Drives Price Rebound - Timeline of the market: On July 1st, the Central Financial and Economic Commission signaled national anti - involution policies, boosting lithium carbonate prices. On July 14th, a rumor about the verification of mining rights in Yichun led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices due to capital concentration. In mid - July, there was a certain short - squeeze sentiment in the market. On July 15th, the new export restrictions on battery and lithium extraction technologies increased the overseas production threshold. On July 17th, Zangge Lithium Industry's suspension of production caused a sharp rise in lithium carbonate futures. On July 21st, Jiangte's production halt and concerns about mining licenses led to supply contraction expectations. On July 23rd and 25th, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading rules and restricted daily opening positions to curb speculation [6][7][8]. 2. Impact of Anti - involution - Since mid - 2024, especially in 2025, anti - involution has become a major supply - side policy. The anti - involution policy helps to eliminate inefficient production capacity, slow down the release of new capacity, and optimize the supply - side structure, which is conducive to stabilizing market prices in the long run. The draft amendment to the Price Law provides a legal basis for anti - involution price work. Based on production costs, a price range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton for lithium carbonate can meet the requirements of anti - involution [9][10]. 3. Impact of the New Mining Law - **New Law Highlights**: The new mining law includes 10 major highlights, such as ensuring national mineral resource security, promoting competitive transfer of mining rights, separating property rights registration from exploration and mining permits, implementing a "direct - access" system for exploration and mining, protecting the legitimate rights and interests of mining right holders, etc. Mines included in the strategic catalog will receive policy support [13][14][15]. - **Impact on the Supply Side**: Zangge Lithium Industry's suspension of production has little impact on the annual output. The market has expectations of supply contraction due to issues such as mining license renewals, which support the rise of lithium carbonate futures prices. However, the high inventory (about 1.5 times the monthly output) restricts price increases [17][18]. 4. Future Trend Outlook - In the short term, price volatility will remain high, and it is not recommended to chase up or sell short unilaterally. Instead, investors can use long straddle option combinations. In the short term, attention should be paid to the renewal of Ningde Jianxiawo's mining license on August 9th, the submission of resource reserve reports by 8 mines in Yichun on September 30th, and the government's mining exploration progress. Considering supply surplus, the price center is expected to be 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. In September, factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's policy implementation, demand front - loading in the fourth quarter, and increased production costs due to the new mining law will affect prices. If Yichun's lithium mine production is restricted, the price center may rise to 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher collectively. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.56%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.18%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.13%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with 170.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined on Monday. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.46% (previous 1.52%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.58% (previous 1.65%) [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined on Monday. The 2 - year yield fell 2.00 BP to 1.42%, the 5 - year fell 2.00 BP to 1.58%, the 10 - year fell 1.78 BP to 1.71%, and the 30 - year fell 2.00 BP to 1.95% [1] - On July 28th local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [1] - Europe and the United States reached a trade agreement, agreeing to accept a 15% tariff on most US exports to the EU [1] Market Logic - On July 18th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies would be introduced, boosting the risk appetite of the financial market. Last week, the Wind All - A stock index rose continuously, as did the prices of commodity futures mainly for domestic demand, while treasury bond futures fell continuously [1] - Since July, the decline rate of the national new - home sales area has accelerated, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly in the first half of July, with a faster decline on the US - West route. The economic fundamentals still face challenges in terms of demand [1] - The implementation of anti - involution policies may be relatively mild, optimizing supply and increasing some prices, but the short - term reaction in the commodity futures market was too intense. On Monday, commodity futures led by coking coal fell sharply after a continuous sharp rise last week, the market risk appetite declined relatively, and treasury bond futures prices rebounded significantly [1] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27th to 30th, and the results are worthy of attention. There is also an important Politburo meeting this week [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as (Bullish) [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with China strengthening its domestic circulation, the US retail and food sales increasing, the market expecting the Fed to cut interest rates, the US manufacturing PMI expanding, China improving manufacturing profits, the European Central Bank cutting interest rates, Germany expanding its military and increasing industrial output, and the US government promoting AI development [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - The Trump administration's AI action plan indicates the US views AI as a zero - sum game, with data center power consumption expected to rise from 4.4% of the US total in 2023 to 6.7% - 12% in 2028 [1] - 84% of US companies' EPS and 79% of revenues are above expectations, with revenue surprises being the strongest in 4 years [1] - South Korea's corporate governance reform has attracted over $3 billion in foreign capital inflows in July, and the KOSPI has risen over 3% this year, with a total market value back to $2 trillion [1] - The possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates again this year has resurfaced [1] - The US - Japan tariff agreement has pushed the Japanese stock market to a new high, but technical indicators show risks [1] - European small - cap stocks have a regional distribution advantage, with 60% of their income from Europe, and have seen 10 consecutive weeks of net inflows [1] - The key for gold prices to rise is whether ETF fund inflows can be reignited [1] Global Economic Logic - China is shifting from price - cutting competition to value - optimization. The US retail and food sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and accelerate in 2026. The US manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0. China's manufacturing profits improved in June. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times. Germany's military has expanded by 30%, and its industrial output in May increased by 1.2% month - on - month. The US government released an AI action plan, and Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in large data centers [1]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the weekly market trends of treasury bond futures, including price movements, yield curve changes, and influencing factors, and provides market logic and trading strategies [26] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - After the short - term sharp decline this week, treasury bond futures prices may stabilize. The anti - involution policy implementation may be relatively mild, and the short - term rapid rise in the commodity futures market may end. The stock - bond seesaw may reappear, and the results of the upcoming economic talks and the Politburo meeting are worth attention. The trading strategy is for trading - type investments to conduct band operations [26] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures fell continuously with significant retracements. The 30 - year treasury bond dropped 2.14%, the 10 - year dropped 0.58%, the 5 - year dropped 0.41%, and the 2 - year dropped 0.12% [4] 3.2 Changes in Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve - As of July 25, compared with July 18, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted upward overall. The 2 - year yield rose from 1.38% to 1.44%, the 5 - year from 1.53% to 1.60%, the 10 - year from 1.67% to 1.73%, and the 30 - year from 1.89% to 1.97% [6] 3.3 Market Risk Preference and Related Influencing Factors - This week, market risk preference increased, showing an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect [9] - Since July, the decline rate of the national new - home sales area has accelerated. From January to March, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, it was 230,000 square meters, a 12% year - on - year decrease. In May, it was 260,000 square meters, a 3% decrease. In June, it was 310,000 square meters, an 8.4% decrease. From July 1 to 25, it was 200,000 square meters, a 20% decrease [12] - In the first half of July, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, with a faster decline in the US - West route. The CCFI US - West route index reached a recent high of 1256.91 on June 20 and then declined. The CCFI composite index reached a recent high of 1369.34 on June 27 and fell to 1261.35 on July 25 [15] - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies would be introduced, driving up the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index [18] 3.4 Commodity Market Conditions - On Friday night, the prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly. After five consecutive days of rapid price increases in the first five days of this week, coking coal prices dropped sharply on Friday night after the exchange issued a risk warning, indicating that the short - term rapid rise may end [21] 3.5 Capital Interest Rate Situation - This week, the fluctuation of capital interest rates increased. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.44% this week, compared with 1.47% last week. DR001 rose from a weighted average of over 1.3% in the first three days to 1.65% and 1.52% on Thursday and Friday. The weighted average of DR007 was 1.54% this week, compared with 1.53% last week. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65% this week, compared with 1.63% last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategies - Market Logic: The announcement of anti - involution policies increased market risk preference, causing stocks and commodity futures to rise and treasury bond futures to fall. The economic fundamentals still face challenges in terms of demand. The short - term rapid rise in the commodity futures market may end, and treasury bond futures prices may stabilize after a sharp decline. The stock - bond seesaw may reappear, and the results of the economic talks and the Politburo meeting are worth attention [26] - Trading Strategy: Band operations for trading - type investments [26]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The steel and ore prices have risen rapidly recently, driven by macro - expectations and anti - involution expectations. The medium - term trend is expected to be strong, with the rebar main contract likely to break through 3400, and iron ore performing weaker than finished products. There may be adjustments after the short - term rapid rise. The market may have reversed rather than just rebounded. [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Situation - This week, the steel and ore market was strong, hitting new highs and breaking through the first - half highs [7]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 24.13 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; new orders were 44.33 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%; as of the end of June, the order backlog was 234.54 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7% [12]. - In the first half of 2025, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [12]. - In August 2025, the production plan for household air conditioners was 11.155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%, with domestic sales planned at 6.51 million units (down 5.3% year - on - year) and exports at 4.645 million units (down 9.5% year - on - year) [12]. - Relevant departments are promoting the rectification of involution - style competition and taking measures to regulate the market [12]. - Japan launched an anti - dumping investigation on cold - rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from China [12]. - The second round of coke price increase started on July 22, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamped wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamped dry - quenched coke [13]. - In the first half of this year, China completed 532.9 billion yuan in water conservancy construction investment, implemented 34,400 water conservancy projects, and started 18,800 new projects [13]. Steel Supply, Inventory and Consumption - This week, the total steel supply was 8.6697 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons (0.1%); the total inventory was 13.365 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 tons (0.1%); the apparent consumption was 8.6813 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,800 tons (0.2%) [14]. - This week, rebar supply was 2.1196 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons (1.4%); total inventory was 5.3864 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,200 tons (0.9%); apparent consumption was 2.1658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.0% [17]. - This week, hot - rolled steel supply was 3.1749 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,500 tons (1.1%); total inventory was 3.4516 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,500 tons (0.7%); apparent consumption was 3.1524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,500 tons (2.6%) [17]. - Rebar inventory contradictions are not prominent. This week, rebar factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory decreased. Hot - rolled steel factory, social, and total inventories all increased, and inventory contradictions were not prominent [18][19]. Iron - related Data - This week, the daily iron - water output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, but it remained at a relatively high level [22].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 25 日星期五 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货：昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截止夜盘收盘2509合约跌幅0.17%，收 | | | | | 于2314元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、昨日现货主线稳定、局部涨跌调整。南北港口价格北稳南弱，锦州港主流收购价 | | | | | 2290-2305元/吨，较前一日涨5元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2440元/吨，较前一日跌1 | | | | | 0元/吨。昨日深加工企业收购价弱稳为主。东北地区深加工企业收购价2257元/吨， | | | | | ；华北地区企业主流收购价2483元/吨，较前一日跌1元/吨。 | | | | ...

市场快讯 -- 反内卷主题下资金放大波动率,碳酸锂期货大涨 F0276812 公易答间: 70021310 碳酸锂 2025年7月24日 截至发文,碳酸锂主力合约价格77240元/吨,涨幅8%,日增仓8.8万手。 日内传小作文江西主要锂矿到期或将长期停产,午间已澄清为假消息。 宏观背景,中美第三轮谈判将于7.27-7.30在瑞典举行,中美关系整体回温。近期 一关注点为7月底政治局会议,财政货币政策方面,4月份为应对美国对等关税,已 大相关政策刺激力度,在中美关系缓和、国内金融市场好转背景下,预计本次会议 大财政货币政策刺激可能性较小。重点关注会议对"反内卷"内容的进一步定调。 近日碳酸锂大幅波动为资金面推动影响,昨日,广期所已发布公告,提升工业硅, 多晶硅涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金标准、交易手续费标准、交易限额的通知,碳酸锂 碳酸锂期货LC2509合约的交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点六,日内平今 仓交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点六。旨在降低投机资金热度,引导投 质者理性投资。 当下碳酸锂期货市场较现货市场价格升水较高,现货市场下游 对高价碳酸锂接受 程度较低,实际成交情况刚需为主。而期货市场 ...

市场快讯 -- 反内卷主题下资金放大波动率,碳酸锂期货大涨 近日碳酸锂大幅波动为资金面推动影响,昨日,广期所已发布公告,提升工业硅, 多晶硅涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金标准、交易手续费标准、交易限额的通知,碳酸锂 碳酸锂期货LC2509合约的交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点六,日内平今 仓交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点六。旨在降低投机资金热度,引导投 质者理性投资。 当下碳酸锂期货市场较现货市场价格升水较高,现货市场下游 对高价碳酸锂接受 程度较低,实际成交情况刚需为主。而期货市场持仓量不断增长,关注持仓量与仓单 量对比。预计短期碳酸锂仍将手资金影响偏强运行,波动幅度较大,期货单边持有 哈较大,可以买入期权工具作为保护,或考虑买众登录想权费 联糸方式: wangchen@greendh.com 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 L2011 碳酸锂 2025年7月24日 截至发文,碳酸锂主力合约价格77240元/吨,涨幅8%,日增仓8.8万手。 日内传小作文江西主要锂矿到期或将长期停产,午间已澄清为假消息。 宏观背景,中美第三轮谈判将于7.27-7.30在瑞典举行,中美关系整体回温。近期 一关注点为 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (corn, pork, and eggs) are rated as "Range" [1][3] Core Views - The market for corn has short - term support and pressure, with the mid - term supply pattern expected to tighten but the long - term price increase limited by policies and substitutes. Pork futures were boosted by sentiment but will return to supply - demand fundamentals, with short - term price fluctuations, mid - term supply increase expectations, and long - term high production capacity. Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the short - term, have a potential mid - term rebound, but may face pressure in the long - term if the elimination of laying hens is less than expected [1][3][4] Summary by Commodity Corn - **Market Review**: The night - session of the previous day saw corn futures fluctuating. The 2509 contract rose 0.17% to close at 2315 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Spot prices were weak and stable, with port prices slightly down and deep - processing enterprise prices mostly stable. As of July 23, futures warehouse receipts decreased by 207 to 175,450 hands. An auction of 195,017 tons of imported corn is scheduled for July 25 [1] - **Market Logic**: Short - term price increases are limited; mid - term prices may rise but with limited upside; long - term prices are restricted by policies and substitutes [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term range operation; mid - term low - buying; short - term testing of support and pressure. The 2509 contract was suggested for band - buying, with pressure at 2340 - 2360 [1] Pork - **Market Review**: The previous day, all main pork futures contracts rose. The LH2509 contract rose 1.67% to 14,590 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 2.77% to 14,300 yuan/ton [3] - **Important Information**: On July 23, the national average pig price was 14.23 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day. In June 2025, the number of breeding sows was 40.43 million, up 0.1% year - on - year. The inventory of medium and large pigs decreased by 0.8% in June. The fat - standard price difference on July 23 was 0.16 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. The weekly average slaughter weight on July 17 was 124.56 kg, down 0.18 kg. On July 23, the number of futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting high - quality development of the pig industry [3] - **Market Logic**: Futures were driven up by sentiment but will return to supply - demand. Short - term prices may fluctuate; mid - term supply may increase; long - term production capacity remains high [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term short - selling; mid - term range operation; short - term, breeding enterprises are advised to consider selling hedging when far - month contracts face pressure. Pressure levels for 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are provided [3] Eggs - **Market Review**: The previous day, egg futures rose and then fell. The JD2509 contract rose 0.36% to 3637 yuan/500kg [3] - **Important Information**: Egg prices continued to rise. The average price in the main production areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin. The average inventory in the production and circulation links was 0.89 and 1.01 days respectively. The average price of old hens was 5.79 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin. In June, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.34 billion, and the estimated inventory in July is 1.352 billion [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term prices may strengthen; mid - term prices may rebound but with limited upside; long - term prices may face pressure if the elimination of laying hens is less than expected [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The 09 contract has a short - long and long - short strategy, with pressure at 3680 - 3700 and support at 3500 - 3550. The 10 contract is in a range, and short - selling opportunities for 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts are suggested if the elimination is less than expected [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, but they declined in the morning and accelerated the decline in the afternoon, closing at a low level. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts (TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509) fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] - The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, with a decline in the morning and an accelerated decline in the afternoon. The 30 - year (TL2509), 10 - year (T2509), 5 - year (TF2509), and 2 - year (TS2509) treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [1] - Capital market: The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] Market Logic - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]