Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Report's Core View - The methanol market is currently under pressure in the real - world situation due to significant inventory accumulation at ports and in the inland areas. The price of methanol is oscillating, and future focus should be on the de - stocking amplitude at ports and the start - stop status of Iranian plants. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2120 - 2220 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 5 yuan to 2151 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region dropped by 10 yuan to 2135 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 3784 lots to 462,000 lots, and short positions increased by 476 lots to 591,000 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports is 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 19,370 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, and that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 404,000 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.28% [1] - **Demand**: The order volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 86,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises is 193,600 tons, a decrease of 26,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 12.16%. The olefin operating rate is 88.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, unchanged from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the acetic acid operating rate is 77.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% [1] - **Import**: In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1417,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. The largest import volume came from Saudi Arabia, which was 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [1] - **Macroeconomic**: The report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. As a result, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%. Traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - The 2.3 - million - ton Kaveh plant in Iran shut down due to gas restrictions, but the 1.65 - million - ton Bushers plant restarted. There is still pressure in the real market as ports and the inland areas had significant inventory accumulation last week. The import volume in November was 1.417 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12%, and the methanol price is oscillating [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1]

联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 1 元至 1735 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 7334 手至 16.46 万手，空头持仓减少 6129 手至 18.83 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 106.89 万吨，较上周减少 11.08 万吨，环比 减少 9.39%。尿素港口样本库存量 17.7 万吨，环比+3.9 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | | | | 4、印度 NFL 发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购 150 万吨（西海岸 80 万吨东海岸 | | 能源与化 | 尿素 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 铁矿: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周五夜盘铁矿收涨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 | 年继续实施更加积极的财政政 | 策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 券效益。会议要求，2026 | 年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，大力 | 提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.31%报 4562.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 11.15%报 79.68 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.17%报 1018.1 元/克，沪银收涨 6.03%报 19204 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 26 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 2.86 | | | | | 吨，当前持仓量为 1071.13 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日减少 56.41 吨，当前持仓量为 163 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘螺纹热卷收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政 | | | | | 策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债 | | | | | 券效益。会议要求，2026 年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，大力 | | | | | 提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育壮大新动 | | | | | 能，进一步增加财政科技投入等。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，1-11 月份，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现利润总额 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周焦煤主力合约收于 1115.5 元/吨，周涨幅 1.09%；焦炭主力合约收于 1720.0 元/吨， | | | | | 周跌幅 1.15%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、全国工业和信息化工作会议在京召开。会议强调，2026 年要提高行业治理效能。加 | | | | | 快编制实施工业和信息化领域"十五五"系列规划。深入整治"内卷式"竞争，坚决遏 | | | | | 制低价低质量竞争。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，1-11 月份，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (government bonds) sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, the main contracts of government bond futures generally opened flat, with the 30 - year main contract TL2603 rising 0.36%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.03%. The short - term trend of government bond futures may be volatile. The stock market and government bond futures both rose on Friday. The trading - type investment should conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Market Performance - On Friday, the main contracts of government bond futures generally opened flat, with the 30 - year main contract TL2603 rising 0.36%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.03%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, climbed in the morning, then fell rapidly, rebounded in the afternoon and fell slightly, closing up 0.34% with a trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 1.94 trillion yuan [1][2] Important News - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 56.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 36.8 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%, up from 1.48% of the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year government bond yield rose 0.20 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year fell 0.80 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.10 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year fell 0.19 BP to 2.22% [1] - Industrial enterprise data: From January to November, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The total profit was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, indicating greater operating pressure on industrial enterprises [1] - Fiscal policy: The National Fiscal Work Conference from December 27th to 28th stated that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing the government bond tool combination, etc. A special consumption - boosting action will be carried out, and funds will be allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods [1] - Central bank report: The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", proposing to implement a more proactive macro - policy and prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and improve the institutional and policy environment for long - term investment [1][2] Market Logic - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. In December, industrial product prices continued to hover at low levels, while agricultural product wholesale prices rose, helping the December CPI to remain at a relatively high level within the year. New home sales in December continued to decline significantly year - on - year. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy according to the situation [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investment should conduct band operations [2]

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 104 元至 6022 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6080 元/吨 （+95），华南瓶片价格 6130 元/吨（+100）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 3572 手至 5.66 万手，空头持仓减少 2831 手至 6.09 万手。 【重要资讯】 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | | | | | 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 | | | | | 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上月增加 0.99 万吨。2025 年累计 | | | | | 出口量 586.5 万吨。 | | 能源与化 | 瓶片 | 震荡 | 3、因西方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, it is recommended to short - term go long and wait for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the two - meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, it is expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1 Market Review - On December 26, the vegetable oil sector showed an overall strong trend. The large - scale exit of short positions in soybean oil boosted its price. Palm oil was still under pressure at the 20 - day moving average, and the rebound of rapeseed oil weakened. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,836 yuan/ton, up 0.15% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 10,112 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - The biodiesel policy may be favorable. The Trump administration may make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. From January 1, 2026, the tax credit for US biodiesel producers will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and that for renewable diesel producers will increase to 53 cents per gallon [1] - Indian buyers have locked in a large - scale purchase of 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil from April to July 2026 [1] - From December 1 - 20, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 6.26% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.17% month - on - month [1] - From December 1 - 25, the palm oil export volume in Malaysia was 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [1] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources released the total biodiesel allocation for 2026 as 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 road test was launched in December 2025, with the mandatory addition plan expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.30% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Overseas: After Christmas, US soybean oil opened higher and closed lower, but the overall center of gravity moved up and was still in a rebound. Domestic: For soybean oil, the factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating a short - term supply shortage, but the oil mill's crushing volume and operating rate remained high. For palm oil, the Malaysian market opened and closed higher. The strong overseas vegetable oil market is expected to boost the domestic market. For rapeseed oil, due to market news that many traders plan to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and actively inquire about crude rapeseed oil, and the continuous reduction of rapeseed oil inventory in East China, the 2601 Zhengzhou rapeseed oil contract led the domestic vegetable oil market, and the 2605 contract also followed the upward trend [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New positions in vegetable oils should be short - term long, and a long - term short - selling mindset should be maintained. Do not engage in long - term trading during the New Year's Day holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 8,400 and a support level of 7,400 [2] - Arbitrage: None Two - Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Sector 3.1 Market Review - On December 26, the customs rumors led to an increase in spot market transactions, boosting the futures market. The main bean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, up 1.09% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 6,453 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting area and increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres [2] - StoneX reported that China has purchased more than 8 million tons of US soybeans, moving towards the goal of 12 million tons [2] - As of December 11, the sowing of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 97% complete, higher than 94% a week ago [2] - StoneX predicts that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [3] - As of December 13, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 94.1%, compared with 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.6% [3] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) expects the soybean export volume in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 3.33 million tons [3] - S&P Global Research Report states that in 2026, the US soybean market will face a decline in both output and exports, while Brazil's soybean harvest may prompt China to seek more Brazilian supplies [3] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.646 million tons, a decrease of 409,000 tons compared to last week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 1.095 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.38% [3] - On December 24, there were rumors that the customs inspection procedures would be tightened until the second quarter of next year [3] 3.3 Market Logic - Overseas: The price of US soybeans rebounded after Christmas. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and some enterprises continued to raise prices after the market closed. Traders replenish goods as needed, waiting for the shutdown arrangement of oil mills in January. The terminal has pre - holiday stocking demand but is not willing to chase high prices. The market is concerned about whether it can break through the half - year line pressure level under the drive of the rise in bean meal. In the spot market, terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with general trading volume, and prices fluctuate with the futures market, and the basis quotation shows a narrow - range adjustment [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rebound from a low level. New selling points should be sought after the rebound ends. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 2,858 and a support level of 2,660 [3] - Arbitrage: None

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook in the macro and financial sector is (weakening) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is weakening as the US makes continuous policy mistakes and is past its peak [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Trump ordered an air strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve, escalating US tensions with the largest economy in West Africa, and the move is related to global energy pattern changes and strategic mineral supply - chain competition [1] - The US economy shows a "K - shaped divide", with large enterprises profiting from the AI wave while small businesses face difficulties due to inflation, tariffs, and consumption downgrade, exacerbating employment and social inequality [1] - Large tech companies are moving over $120 billion in data - center spending off their balance sheets via SPVs, raising concerns about financial risks in AI investment [1] - Mark Strouse from JPMorgan believes that in 2025, investors only need AI exposure, but in 2026, actual deals and order accumulation are required [1] - A new La Nina is forming, the fifth in the past six years, which will disrupt the global weather system and pose risks to agriculture, energy markets, and supply chains [1] - Jim Rickards predicts that factors driving the metal market up will continue next year, with gold possibly reaching $10,000 and silver $200 [1] - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the one - year silver swap spread at - 7.18%, showing a shortage of physical silver [1] - Fujitsu will join a project led by SoftBank to develop next - generation memory for AI and supercomputers, aiming to revive Japan's memory production technology [1] Global Economic Logic - Goldman Sachs believes global stocks are in the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with a 15% total return (including dividends) in 2026 [2] - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to pre - 2008 financial crisis signals [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to boost its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a growing K - shaped divide among US consumers [2] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun thinks China will win the AI race due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]