Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 6 日星期五 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 2128 万吨，平均日产 193.5 万吨，日产环比下降 2.2%；生铁 1915 万吨，平均日产 174.1 万吨，日产环比下降 3.0%；钢材 2130 万吨，平均日产 193.6 万吨，日产环比增长 3.2%。 2、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量 1471 万吨，环比上一旬减少 142 万吨，下降 8.8%；比年初增加 57 万吨，增长 4.0%；比上月同旬增加 57 万吨， 增长 4.0%；比去年同旬减少 64 万吨，下降 4.2%，比前年同旬增加 251 万吨，增长 20.6%。 3、Mysteel：1 月全国 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 受外盘影响，周四两市主要指数低开下行，下午有所反弹。主要指数呈现破位形态， 叠加纳指趋弱，后市不乐观。两市成交额 2.17 万亿元，继续缩量。沪深 300 指数 收 4670 点，跌 28 点，跌幅-0.60%；上证 50 指数收 3059 点，跌 10 点，跌幅-0.33%； 中证 500 指数收 8146 点，跌 152 点，跌幅-1.84%；中证 1000 指数收 8068 点，跌 | | | | | 139 点，跌幅-1.69%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是银行 ETF 天弘、影视 ETF、 食品 ETF 鹏华、旅游 ETF、消费 ETF 华夏，跌幅居前的是光伏 ETF 华夏、黄金股 ETF 工银、中韩半导体 ETF。两市板块指数中涨幅居前的是影视院线、日用化工、医疗 | | | | | 美容、酒店餐饮、中小银行指数，跌幅居前的是光伏设备、贵金属、工业金属、稀 | | | | IF （弱） | 有金属、风电设备指数。沪深 3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment changes rapidly. Near the Spring Festival, funds have a need for risk aversion. This week, there was a slight inventory reduction at the Jiangsu port for pure benzene, and the demand side showed a stable performance. The export of downstream styrene was good, and the inventory of Shandong refineries was at a low level, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level. Pure benzene was in a high - level wide - range shock, and the reference range for the 03 contract was 6060 - 6350 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy was to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the BZ2603 main - contract futures fell by 47 yuan to 6135 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 6150 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan), and the spot price in Shandong was 6165 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan). In terms of positions, the long positions decreased by 1608 lots to 20,600 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1717 lots to 21,800 lots [2] 2. Important Information - **Supply**: In January, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.915 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. In December, the pure benzene import volume was 537,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.8% [2] - **Inventory**: As of February 2, 2026, the total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 296,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons compared with the previous inventory of 305,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.95%; compared with the inventory of 155,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 141,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90.97%. From January 26 to February 1, the incomplete statistics showed that the arrival volume was 0 tons and the pick - up volume was about 9,000 tons. During the period, among the statistical storage areas, 3 storage areas decreased and 4 remained stable [2] - **Demand**: The styrene operating rate was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%; the phenol operating rate was 88%, unchanged from the previous month; the caprolactam operating rate was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%; the aniline operating rate was 88.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the adipic acid operating rate was 68.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The statistical price of pure benzene in Shandong yesterday was around 2100, with the low end at 6150 and the high end at 6180 [2] - **International Oil Price**: The US and Iran officially confirmed that they would hold talks, the market's concern about geopolitical risks eased, and the US dollar exchange rate strengthened, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract fell 1.85 dollars/barrel to 63.29 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 2.84%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract fell 1.91 dollars/barrel to 67.55 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%. The China INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 5.2 to 467.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 3.5 to 463.9 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3. Market Logic - The market sentiment changes rapidly. Near the Spring Festival, funds have a need for risk aversion. This week, there was a slight inventory reduction at the Jiangsu port for pure benzene, and the demand side showed a stable performance. The export of downstream styrene was good, and the inventory of Shandong refineries was at a low level, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level. Pure benzene was in a high - level wide - range shock, and the reference range for the 03 contract was 6060 - 6350 yuan/ton [2] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy was to wait and see [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 1172.0 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1172.0 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 3.06%；焦炭主力合约 J2605收于 1738.0 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.81%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约收于 1161.0 | | | | | 元/吨，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.94%，焦炭主力合约收于 1733.0 元/吨，环比日盘收盘下跌 | | | | | 0.29%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本周，五大钢材品种供应 819.9 万吨，周环比下降 3.27 万吨，降幅 0.4%；五大钢材 总库存 1337.75 万吨，周环比增 59.24 万吨，增幅 4.6%；五大品种周消费量为 760.66 | | | 焦煤、 | | 万吨，降 5. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the stock market (Wande A-Share Index) generally declined, with the Wande A-Share Index closing down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, the main contracts of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rising 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.04%. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and the performance of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Thursday, the main contract of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, fluctuated horizontally in the morning, and rose in the afternoon. The 30 - year variety showed a strong trend. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.04% [1]. - **Stock Market**: On Thursday, the Wande A - Share Index opened lower, fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, closed down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, forming a doji candlestick, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 354 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 64.5 billion yuan [1]. - **Funding Market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32% (the same as the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48% (compared to 1.49% in the previous trading day) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds dropped 1.35 basis points to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 0.62 basis points to 1.57%, the 10 - year dropped 0.24 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30 - year dropped 1.20 basis points to 2.27% [1]. - **US Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 231,000, compared with an estimate of 212,000 and a previous value of 209,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits in the week of January 24 was 1.844 million, with an estimate of 1.85 million [1]. - **European Central Bank Interest Rates**: On February 5, the European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - **Economic Data**: The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.7%) [1]. - **Policy Signals**: On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". Recently, the governor of the central bank said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2].

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5224 元/吨，日涨幅 0.27%，夜盘收 5241 元/吨；SR609 合约 | | | | | 收盘价 5227 元/吨，日涨幅 0.25%，夜盘收 5250 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 5256 元/吨，上涨 2 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间为 | | | | | 5270~5370 元/吨，少数上调 10~30 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5110~ 5180 元/吨， | | | | | 加工糖厂主流报价区间为 5580~5800 元/吨，报价持稳。 | | | | | 2.咨询机构 Stonex 近日发布报告，预计 2026/27 榨季巴西中南部地区食糖产量为 | | | | | 4070 万吨，较此前预估的 4150 万吨减少 80 万吨。预计 202 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周四铁矿收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 2128 万吨，平均日产 193.5 万吨，日产环比下降 2.2%；生铁 1915 万吨，平均日产 174.1 万吨，日产环比下降 3.0%；钢材 2130 万吨，平均日产 193.6 万吨，日产环比增长 3.2%。 2、2026 年 1 月下旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量 1471 万吨，环比上一旬减少 142 万吨，下降 8.8%；比年初增加 57 万吨，增长 4.0%；比上月同旬增加 57 万吨， 增长 4.0%；比去年同旬减少 64 万吨，下降 4.2%，比前年同旬增加 251 万吨，增长 20.6%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 3、Mysteel：1 月全国开工 1329 个项目，总 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic investment in the macro and financial sector is rated as "downward" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The world is on the verge of a "capital war" with high geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility, and the US is like a powder keg on the verge of civil war. The expected policy of the Fed's nominee chair will have a negative impact on global equity and commodity assets. The US's actions have brought great uncertainty to the global economy, and the Fed's uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend. The consumption trend in the US is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis. The US's adjustment of its economic strategy and the "tech self - cannibalism" era will also affect the market. The US's policy shift and the decline of the stock market may have a negative impact on the global economy and US consumption [4][5] Summary by Related Content Important Information - Deutsche Bank warns of the "tech self - cannibalism" era, with most tech stocks dropping up to 80% from their highs. Only Alphabet in the S&P 500 has soared 75% with a $1.7 trillion market - value increase, while the other six of the "Big Seven" have declined between 5% - 25% [3] - US momentum stocks experienced the fourth - largest single - day sell - off in the past decade. Investors sold growth and momentum stocks and flocked to value and traditional defensive stocks. The chemical sector had the fourth - largest single - day gain in a decade [3] - The software industry has lost $1 trillion in market value this year. Short - sellers targeted basic automation service companies. Giants like Microsoft and Oracle fell over 15%, and small and medium - sized software stocks dropped over 30%. Short - sellers increased their short positions [3] - US tech stocks have been in a three - month slump, making the Russell 1000 Value Index (RLV) perform strongly. Historically, RLV outperformed the growth index significantly only in 2022's bear market and 2001's early Internet bubble burst [3] - Nvidia, Amazon, etc. participated in OpenAI's $100 - billion financing. OpenAI is crucial for tech giants' valuations. Without continuous funding, it may lead to a 50% - 80% market - value shrinkage for tech giants. If OpenAI cuts spending on cloud providers, they could lose $1 trillion [3] - Google plans a capital expenditure of $175 - $185 billion in 2026 for servers and data centers, focusing on AI. Its CEO said Gemini is an "engine" rather than a terminator [3] - Over $17.7 billion in tech company loans became non - performing in the past four weeks. The total non - performing debt in the US tech industry reached about $46.9 billion, the highest since October 2022. The crisis has spread to private credit [3] - All 11 Democrats on the US Senate Banking Committee asked to postpone the nomination process of Fed nominee chair Kevin Warsh until the criminal investigation of current chair Powell and other Fed governors ends [3] Global Economic Logic - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio warns of a "capital war" and US civil - war risk, and investors should beware of capital control risks. The expected policy of Fed nominee chair Warsh will negatively impact global assets. US actions have brought great uncertainty to the global economy. Nomura says Fed uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend in July - November 2026. Goldman warns of a consumption trend similar to 2008's financial crisis. The US is adjusting its economic strategy. The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divide. The "tech self - cannibalism" era is here, and there was a large - scale sell - off of US momentum stocks [4] Impact on Assets and Economy - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes. Warsh's policy indicates a major shift in Fed monetary policy, creating a strong liquidity contraction expectation for equity assets. The Nasdaq futures may trigger a new wave of tech - stock selling, and the decline of the US stock market may negatively affect US consumption. The global economy started to decline after reaching its peak in late 2025 [5]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 06 日星期五 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.04%，收于2268 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价小幅下跌。东北地区深加工 | | | | | 企业收购价2171元/吨，较前一日跌1元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2303元/吨，较 | | | | | 前一日跌3元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价2 | | | | | 270-2280元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2400元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | 玉米 | 区间 | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 6 日星期周五 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 5 日，有色板块再度大跌，文华指数走弱，植物油板块转跌，但是跌势不大。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8104 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.44%，日减仓 | | | | | 12674 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8046 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.35%，日增 | | | | | 仓 9525 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9042 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.05%，日减 | | | | | 仓 13432 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 901 ...