早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四铁矿主力收于 | 705.5，上涨 | 0.64%；次主力收于 | 679.5，上涨 | 0.74%。 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、国家发改委：第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于 | 7 | 月下达。 | | | | | 2、欧亚经济委员会继续对华无缝钢管征收反倾销税。 | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | | | 短 | 线 | 震 | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 周四螺卷现货价格有涨有跌，成交一般。盘面表现，焦煤领涨，尾盘成材走高。钢 | 荡 | | 联数据，本周螺纹产量增加，库存下降，表需微增。热卷产量和库存微增，表需下 | 降。本期铁矿到港量增加。月底铁矿发运继续冲量，会形成 | 7 | 月到港冲击。关注晚 | | | | | 上发布的铁水产量数据。黑色系中，焦煤领涨，可能带动其他黑色走高。目前看， | 铁矿盘面仍震荡区间内。主力上方 | 720 | ...

格林大华期货国债期货半年报 从业资格：F0276812 2025年6月26日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 盘面回顾 03. 策略建议 02. 本期分析 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01. PART 01 盘面回顾 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债期货活跃合约走势 2024年11月起国债期货市场即抢跑，连续大幅上涨至今年1月，1月10日人民银行宣布1月起暂停开展公开 市场国债买入操作，30年期品种在2月初创出高点，然后连续下跌至3月中旬止跌反弹。4月上旬，因美方 宣布加征对等关税消息国债期货上涨，随后横向盘整，5月12日中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，国债 期货价格略有回落，随后横盘窄幅波动。进入6月，随着资金利率下行，国债期货小幅盘升。 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率走势 国债现券收益率多数在1月初创出低点，透支了全年的降息预期。2年期国债到期收益率最低接近1%，市 场对"适度宽松的货币政策 ...

格林大华期货中国宏观经济半年报 从业资格：F0276812 2025年6月26日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-5月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增长17.3% "两新"工作加力扩围提质带动效果持续显现，设备购置投资快速增长。1-5月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增 长17.3%，增速比全部投资高13.6个百分点；对全部投资增长的贡献率为63.6%，拉动全部投资增长2.3个百分点。 （2024年，设备工器具购置投资增长15.7%，2023年是6.6%）。6月26日国家发改委政策研究室副主任李超在发布 会上表示，抓紧推出加力实施设备更新贷款贴息政策，进一步降低经营主体设备更新融资成本。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-5月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降2.9%，1-4月同比下降2.8% 1-5月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，市场预期4.0%，1-4月份为4.0% 1-5月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，市场预 ...

全球经济和大类资产半年报 全球经济进入冲顶期 2025年6月26日 F0247894 Z0000112 3 受对等关税冲击，全球制造业PMI4月、5月收缩 于军礼 全球经济和大类资产半年报 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 2 48.0 48.5 49.0 49.5 50.0 50.5 51.0 51.5 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 全球制造业PMI指数 48.00 49.00 50.00 51.00 52.00 53.00 54.00 55.00 56.00 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025- ...

Group 1: Market Overview - A-share market showed a large consolidation platform in the first half of the year, with a deep V-shaped trend triggered by the tariff war. After the Middle East situation eased on June 24, the stock index rose rapidly [8]. - Due to the impact of DeepSeek and the US imposing reciprocal tariffs, international capital fled from US stocks on a large scale, with technology stocks being the hardest hit [10]. - After the rebound of US stocks in April, the main buyers were retail investors, while institutions withdrew one after another, and the short positions of hedge funds reached a record high [13]. Group 2: Market Outlook - A-shares are expected to transform into a capital-driven upward trend. After the Middle East situation eased, the risk appetite of A-shares quickly recovered, and the main indexes of the two markets rose rapidly. With the one-year deposit rate falling below 1%, the large-scale savings of the household sector are accelerating to flow into the stock market, preferring high-dividend sectors, which has driven the bank ETF to continuously reach new highs. The balance of margin trading has rebounded, and the financing balance has remained above 1.8 trillion yuan for 11 consecutive trading days (from June 9 to June 23). Global investors are increasingly focusing on China's innovation and leading position, and many foreign giants have suddenly collectively turned bullish on Chinese assets. Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and Bank of America believes that global capital allocation is gradually shifting from the US to the Eurasian market. Since October 2024, A-shares have been consolidating on a large platform for more than 8 months and are facing an upward breakthrough [18]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, A-shares have been consolidating on a large platform for more than 8 months and are facing an upward breakthrough. They are expected to transform into a capital-driven upward trend and evolve from a volatile recovery market to a trending upward market [19]. - For stock index option trading, after breaking through the large consolidation platform, investors can buy out-of-the-money long-dated call options on stock index options [19]. Group 4: Interest Rate and Market Impact - The one-year deposit rate was cut by 15 basis points to 0.95%, which will promote the continuous transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The 1-year deposit rate breaking below 1% accelerates the transfer of household savings and insurance funds to the stock market, and the decline in deposit rates boosts the value style of the stock market [23][26]. - The issuance of free cash flow ETFs helps the value style. Free cash flow is an indicator of a company's moat in operation and development, and it can relatively truly reflect the company's financial health and profitability in terms of cash. Domestic free cash flow index ETFs were first launched by Huaxia Fund and Guotai Fund in January 2025, tracking the China Securities Free Cash Flow Index and the FTSE China A-share Free Cash Flow Focus Index respectively. The free cash flow strategy has certain growth potential on the basis of value investment, while the dividend strategy is more suitable for investors who prefer low valuations and stable dividends [29]. Group 5: Global Capital Allocation - Global large funds are collectively "de-Americanizing," reducing their allocation of US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar, and increasing their allocation of European and Asian stocks, gold, and non-US currencies. Institutions generally hold different views on US stocks, but the overall allocation has been reduced to a neutral level, making it the least favored market globally. "Buying Asia and Europe" has become a consensus among global large funds. European and Japanese stock markets have been upgraded, and emerging market stock markets remain overweight [30]. - Institutions generally reduce their holdings of US and Japanese bonds and turn to increasing their positions in UK, German, Italian bonds, and local bonds in emerging markets. In the foreign exchange market, the selling of the US is more obvious, and the US dollar continues to be underweighted, while the euro and the yen continue to be overweighted [31][32]. Group 6: Foreign Investment Views - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for Chinese assets, expecting the target point of the CSI 300 to be 4,600 and the target point of the MSCI China to be 84, implying an upside potential of about 10%. Goldman Sachs has recently upgraded the ratings of the banking and real estate sectors, mainly benefiting from domestic policy support, and continues to overweight consumer-related sectors, including medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce retail [33]. - Overseas "smart money" is bullish on Chinese assets with real money. From the frequent due diligence of quantitative private equity funds by foreign investors to the aggressive layout of sovereign funds, overseas "smart money" has turned its attention to the Chinese market. Many international investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy. In the view of many foreign institutions, the continuous efforts of China's monetary and fiscal policies, the resilience of the service industry, and the technological breakthroughs driving the revaluation of assets will jointly support the recovery of the Chinese economy and the warming of the capital market [36]. Group 7: China's Economic Data - In May, China's export amount reached $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, exceeding expectations. In April, China's export volume increased by 13.0% year-on-year and 8.5% month-on-month. The export structure continued to upgrade, with the export amount of mechanical and electrical products reaching $181.9 billion in May, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The export volume of general equipment and special equipment continued to grow rapidly, indicating the continuous upgrading of the export structure [38][41][44]. - In May, China's export to ASEAN reached $58.3 billion, with a surplus of $27.1 billion, reaching a record high. China's export to the EU reached $49.5 billion in May, hitting a new high in nearly three years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [50][53]. - In May, Vietnam's export amount reached $39.5 billion, a record high, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7%, indicating an acceleration of trade transfer [56]. - In May, China's manufacturing fixed asset investment reached 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues to make large-scale investments in emerging and future industries. Infrastructure investment reached 2.26 trillion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining a medium-to-high growth rate [59][62]. - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized. In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating a continuous improvement in consumption. The monthly volume of express delivery services by large-scale enterprises in China reached 17.32 billion pieces in May, the second-highest in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.2%. The output of industrial robots reached 69,000 units in May, at a high level, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.1%. The output of integrated circuits reached 42.4 billion pieces in May, the second-highest in history, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating an acceleration of domestic chip substitution. China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 units in May, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both reaching new highs [65][68][71]. Group 8: US Economic Data - In May, the US manufacturing PMI and service industry business activity index showed certain trends. The prices of the US manufacturing and service industries continued to rise rapidly. The US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.3%, indicating strong consumer demand [83][85][88]. - In April, the US consumer goods import amount reached $69.8 billion, returning to normal, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.2%. The US capital goods import amount reached $90.5 billion in April, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.2%, indicating an acceleration of the reshoring of the US manufacturing industry and the "re-industrialization" of the US. The US service export reached $98.8 billion in April, hitting a new high this year, indicating the strength of the US service industry [91][94][97]. - In May, the US core CPI increased by 2.8% year-on-year, the same as the previous value, and increased by 0.2% month-on-month. The market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September. In April, the number of job openings in the US reached 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a new high in a year, indicating a tightening labor market. The US wholesalers' inventory increased by 2.3% year-on-year in April, and the manufacturers' inventory increased by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [100][103][106]. Group 9: Eurozone and Indian Economic Data - In May, the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and Germany showed certain trends. India's manufacturing and service industry PMIs also showed certain trends [113][116]. Group 10: Strategy Recommendations - After the Middle East situation eases, the risk appetite of A-shares quickly recovers, and the main indexes of the two markets rise rapidly. The brokerage ETF, known as the "bull market flag bearer," closed with a long positive line on June 25. Driven by the continuous inflow of funds, A-shares are expected to shift from a volatile recovery market to a trending upward market, and investors are bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts [120][122][125]. - Affected by quantitative capital hedging, the 2509 contracts of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indexes still have relatively deep discounts. With limited downside risks, investors can earn the discount income. After the market breaks through the large platform upwards, investors are bullish on the out-of-the-money long-dated call options on stock index options [128][131].

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三市场继 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 甲醇 | 震荡偏 24.07 强 ⼯率 | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 31 元/吨至 2419 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 货价格上涨 10 元/吨至 2650 元/吨。多头持仓增加 12386 手至 54.78 万手，空头持 仓增加 16030 手至 61.67 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 88.65%，环比上涨 0.76%。海外甲醇开工率 55.11%， 环比下降 15.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 67.05 万吨，较上一期数据增加 8.41 万吨。 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.90 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 2.51 万吨。 中国甲醇 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 于 | 周三螺纹主力收于 2 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 多（空） | | --- | | 推荐理由 | | 板块 品种 | | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 ...