Report Investment Rating - The global economic situation is rated as (weakening) [1] Core View - The global economy is at the top and starting to weaken due to consecutive wrong policies in the US [2] Summary by Category Macroeconomic and Financial Information - The Fed's economic Beige Book shows that government shutdowns and AI applications have led to a weak job market, while rising tariffs and healthcare costs have increased corporate spending, potentially exacerbating inflation concerns. Consumer K-shaped differentiation is intensifying, with high-income consumers maintaining spending resilience, but middle and low-income families tightening their belts [1] - This year on Black Friday, US consumers' shopping carts have changed significantly, shifting from seeking discounts on big-ticket items to stockpiling daily necessities. 85% of consumers expect tariffs to drive up prices, making them more cautious in their purchasing strategies [1] - MIT research finds that AI can replace 11.7% of the US labor market, equivalent to a wage scale of $1.2 trillion in the finance, healthcare, and professional services sectors [1] - BofA expects the AI data center market to grow fivefold to over $1.2 trillion by 2030. Even if NVIDIA's market share drops from 85% to 75%, its absolute earnings will still grow explosively. GPUs have an irreplaceable advantage in the public cloud and enterprise markets, and the current valuation does not fully reflect long-term profitability [1] - WeRide and Uber have launched fully unmanned services in Abu Dhabi, the first L4-level fully unmanned operation in the Middle East. Abu Dhabi is the first city outside the US to launch fully unmanned Robotaxi, attracting global attention in the autonomous driving industry [1] - Li Auto's CTO, Xie Yan, said that the company's self-designed M100 AI inference chip is undergoing large-scale system testing and is expected to be commercialized next year. After collaborative design with the basic model compiler and software system, its performance-cost ratio will be more than three times that of current high-end chips [1] - Many technology companies, including Dell Technologies and HP, have warned that due to the surge in demand from AI infrastructure construction, there may be a shortage of memory chips in 2026. Consumer electronics manufacturers such as Xiaomi Group have issued potential price increase warnings, while companies like Lenovo Group have started hoarding memory chips [1] - In September, US core capital goods orders jumped 0.9% month-on-month, growing strongly for two consecutive months and far exceeding market expectations, indicating strong corporate capital expenditure willingness. Although the growth of overall durable goods orders slowed to 0.5% due to the drag from industries such as transportation, orders excluding transportation increased by 0.6%, still exceeding expectations [1] - The UK Labour Party has proposed the most "heavy tax" budget in history, with the tax burden soaring to 38% of GDP. Although the market initially welcomed it, the early leakage of the budget by 40 minutes and the tax measures targeting wage earners and capital gains have raised questions about the government's governance ability [2] - JPMorgan predicts that Brent crude oil prices may fall to $30 per barrel in 2027 due to a severe supply glut. Goldman Sachs advises investors to short crude oil immediately and expects the average price of WTI crude oil to drop to $53 in 2026 as OPEC+ and American oil producers continue to increase production, and the Russia-Ukraine peace talks may release more Russian supply [2] Global Economic Logic - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K-shaped differentiation is intensifying, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen significantly to 80% as employment data weakens [2] - Alibaba's CEO said that in the industry, including Alibaba and large US cloud providers, not only are new GPUs fully utilized, but even previous generations of GPUs are also fully occupied. There is unlikely to be an AI bubble in the next three years [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head said that the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000-fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet the rising demand for AI services [2] - NVIDIA's CEO, Huang Renxun, said that China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists believe that the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years. The planned capacity of US data centers has soared to 245 gigawatts, with an increase of 45 gigawatts in the third quarter alone. Due to a lack of confidence in the power grid supply capacity, developers are turning to building their own power plants using natural gas in energy-producing areas such as Texas [2] - US retail sales in September only grew by 0.2%, far lower than expected, indicating that Americans are cutting spending, and the burden capacity crisis is starting to impact the consumer side [2] - ADP weekly data shows that private enterprises have cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, up from 2,500 jobs per week in the previous update, with the pace of layoffs accelerating significantly. Well-known companies such as Amazon have carried out large-scale layoffs, and economists are worried that these layoffs may be an economic warning signal [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, while the driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 284,007 lots and an open interest of 954,257 lots. The settlement prices were 13,635 yuan/ton for the January contract, 13,595 yuan/ton for the May contract, and 13,715 yuan/ton for the September contract. The ICE December contract settled at 62.77 cents, up 34 points; the March contract at 64.57 cents, up 34 points; and the May contract at 65.75 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning mills in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2601 contract was 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 1.499 billion square meters of cotton products, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 9.789 billion square meters of textiles and clothing, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. The import value of textiles and clothing was $9.53 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, both the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures increased, and prices rose, while the spot market remained stable. Some spinning mills reported that recent downstream sales have slowed down, finished product inventories have increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market has intensified [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, with the main 03 contract settling at 64.57 cents, up 0.53%. The driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract - Hold the call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1084.5，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.14%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 于 16 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects the iron ore market to be mainly in a volatile state in the short - term. The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Ore Market Conditions - In the night session on Wednesday, iron ore closed down [3]. Important Information - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.61 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period the year before last [3]. - On November 26, 5 steel enterprises, including Henan Minyuan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., carried out the publicity of the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and assessment and monitoring. So far, 230 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [3]. - On November 25, the Shanghai Clearing House completed the optimization of the agreement elements of the RMB iron ore swap central counterparty clearing business. The RMB iron ore swap is based on the average spot price of imported iron ore (60.8% grade PB powder) at Rizhao and Qingdao ports, with cash settlement and denominated, cleared, and settled in RMB [3]. Market Logic - During the macro - policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. According to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of screw coils and five major steel products decreased this week. The daily output of molten iron last week was 2.3628 million tons, and a reduction is expected this week. The arrival of domestic iron ore is low, but the shipment is active. The foreign port inventory is at the highest level since the fourth quarter [3]. Trading Strategy - The view remains unchanged: it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. The upper important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [3].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 27 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘继续收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、2025 年 11 月中旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量 1561 万吨，环比上一旬增加 12 万吨，增长 0.8%；比年初增加 324 万吨，增长 26.3%；比上月同旬减少 97 万吨， 下降 5.9%；比去年同旬增加 6 万吨，增长 0.4%，比前年同旬增加 28 万吨，增长 1.8%。 2、据中钢协网站消息，11 月 26 日，有 5 家钢企进行超低排放改造和评估监测进展 情况公示，为河南闽源钢铁集团有限公司、福建青拓镍业有限公司、福建青拓新材 料有限公司、福建青拓实业股份有限公司、四川盛泉钢铁集团有限公司。截至目前， 已有 230 家钢铁企业在中钢协网站进行公示。 | | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Precious metals are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 949.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73% to 12450 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of November 26, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1045.43 tons, an increase of 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged from the previous day at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6% [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, the lowest since the week of April 12, 2025. The forecast was 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 220,000 to 222,000. Although the number of initial jobless claims was stable, the number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week climbed slightly to 1.96 million, indicating that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs [1]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity changed little during the more than one - month period covering the government shutdown. Tariff pressures squeezed corporate profits, AI suppressed some recruitment demand, and retailers reported that the government shutdown had a negative impact on consumption [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, less than the expected 2.7% growth; the US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises reduced an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2,500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. The latest weak economic data has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. On November 26, the US dollar index fell and closed at 99.59. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, while COMEX silver rose sharply. Precious metals may fluctuate slightly more in the short term [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat on Wednesday, with the 30 - year contract opening much lower and all contracts declining throughout the day. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. Treasury bond futures may open higher today, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat, with the 30 - year contract TL2603 opening much lower. By the close, TL2603 fell 0.86%, T2603 fell 0.36%, TF2603 fell 0.22%, and TS2603 fell 0.05%. The Wande All - A index opened slightly lower, rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon, closing up 0.25% with a trading volume of 1.80 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous trading day's 1.83 trillion yuan [3][4] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 213.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 310.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 97.2 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (previous day: 1.32%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (previous day: 1.45%) [3] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds rose compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year yield rose 0.42 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 1.84 BP to 1.62%, the 10 - year rose 1.61 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.75 BP to 2.19% [3] - Policy: On November 25th, six departments issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 and form a high - quality development pattern by 2030 [3] Market Logic - Unemployment rates for certain age groups are higher than last year, indicating that efforts to stabilize growth and employment are still needed. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased by 5.6%, suggesting good export prospects for China in November. The overall inflation level in China remains moderate, and the decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities has widened, with housing prices still bottoming out [3] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The global economic investment rating is (turning weak) [1] 2. Report's Core View - The so - called AI bubble is unlikely to exist in the next three years, and the market's long - standing "AI trading" logic has changed significantly. The AI industry is shifting from "scaling up" to the "research era." The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly. The US economy shows signs of weakening, with slow retail sales growth, accelerated private enterprise job cuts, and an emerging burden - of - cost crisis on the consumer side. The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Important Information - AI - related: Industry leaders like the CEO of Alibaba suggest that new and previous generations of GPUs are fully utilized, indicating no AI bubble in the next three years. Google's full - stack innovation creates a multiplier effect, and about 5 years later, people will be excited about quantum technology. The market's "AI trading" logic has changed, with "Google chain" stocks rising and "OpenAI chain" stocks falling. The era of AI breakthroughs by "scaling up" is over, and the industry is moving towards a "research era" [1] - Economic - related: Goldman Sachs launched a new portfolio GSXUPROD with non - tech companies integrating AI. US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far below expectations, and consumer confidence dropped. ADP data shows private enterprises are laying off more employees, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. US PPI rose in September, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Musk is promoting an AI - replacing - human strategy [1][2] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 80%. Google plans to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years. The CEO of NVIDIA believes China will win the AI competition. The construction of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion, and US data center planning capacity has increased. US stock market retail participation is accelerating. US economic indicators such as retail sales and employment are weakening, and the global economy is entering the top - region due to US policies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is bearish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the coking coal and coke market remains bearish. The coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1086.0, a 0.96% decline compared to the opening of the day session. The main coke contract J2601 closed at 1643.0, a 0.64% increase compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1062.5, a 1.75% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the J2601 contract closed at 1593.5, a 3.01% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] 3.2 Important Information - Local government special bonds are experiencing a peak in issuance for investment in government - funded funds. Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province, and Shanghai will issue a total of 20 billion yuan in special bonds on November 28, which will be injected into the Guangdong Provincial Government Investment Fund, Chengdu Venture Capital Fund, and Shanghai Future Industry Fund respectively. Coupled with the more than 60 billion yuan of relevant special bonds issued in many places before, the total scale of local government special bonds invested in government - funded funds currently disclosed will exceed 80 billion yuan [1] - Recently, the "Work Plan for the Classification and Disposal of Coal Mines below 600,000 Tons/Year in Shaanxi Province" was issued, which mentioned accelerating the classification and disposal of coal mines below 600,000 tons/year and guiding the closure and exit of coal mines with exhausted resources and those without safe production conditions [1] - As of November 21, the daily coal consumption of 493 power plant samples nationwide was 4.091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons. The total on - site coal inventory was 101.691 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.215 million tons, and the available days were 24.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 days [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Affected by the snowfall at the Ganqimaodu Port, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has declined. The sentiment has led to a slight rebound in the day - session market. However, the recent coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The overall sentiment remains bearish. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - After the main coking coal contract rebounds and meets resistance, it falls back. The lower support is at 1050 for the Jm2601 contract and 1150 for the Jm2605 contract. It is regarded as weakly volatile in the short term [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期周三 | | | 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 11 月 24 日，需求疲弱，垒库预期上升，马棕榈油走弱，连棕榈油领跌植物油板块。 豆油主力合约 Y2601 合约报收于 8090 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 0.66%，日减仓 1345 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7890 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.70%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1079 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 8360 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.48%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1873 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 8442 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.52%，日增仓 | | | ...