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v天华期货有限公司 煤焦数据快讯-2025年6月原煤产量数据 7月15日 2020-2025年中国原煤月度产量(亿吨) 2020-2025年中国原煤月度累计产量(亿吨) 47.6 50. 0 9.00 45. 0 7.7 8.00 40. 0 7.00 35. 0 6.00 30. 0 24.0 5.00 25. 0 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.9 20. 0 4. 00 15. 0 3.00 10. 0 2. 00 5.0 1. 00 0. 0 0. 00 5月 7月 11月 1-2月 3月 4月 6月 8月 9月 10月 12月 =2022年 ■2023年 ■2024年 ■2025年 2021年 2020年 ■2023年 ■2024年 ■2021年 2020年 =2022年 ■2025年 统计局7月15日数据显示，6月份原煤生产平稳增长。6月期上工业原煤产量：2亿吨，同比增长3.0%。增速比5月份放缓1.2个百分点，日均产量140万吨。 1-6月份,规上工业原煤产量24.0亿吨,同比增长5.4%。 播林大华0351团队点评：6月原煤产量4.2亿吨是历史申月最高产量，1-6月累计原煤产量24.0亿吨也是历史 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The relaxation of port inspections is expected to increase export demand. However, agricultural demand in July is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. In the short term, the price will oscillate within the range of 1720 - 1820 yuan/ton, and long positions should be held cautiously [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2509 dropped by 12 yuan to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price of urea in the central China's mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1840 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 1025 lots to 193,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 708 lots to 215,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 198,600 tons, 1,200 tons less than the previous working day and 29,100 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate is 85.79%, 7.52 percentage points higher than 78.27% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 967,700 tons, 50,800 tons less than last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%. The urea port inventory is 440,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 29.83%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, and the operating rate of melamine is 62.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [1] - Policy: To facilitate the self - regulated export of urea by circulation enterprises, the association has coordinated with relevant departments to open a port legal inspection channel. Three state - owned fertilizer trading enterprises will be the execution subjects for the self - regulated export port legal inspection of urea [1] - Tender: The RCF urea import tender received a total of 3.0809 million tons of supplies from 21 suppliers. Only 405,000 tons of supplies were below the CIF price of $500/ton [1] Market Logic - With the relaxation of port inspections, export demand is expected to increase. But in July, agricultural demand is decreasing month - on - month while supply remains high. Upstream factories are destocking this week, and the Indian tender results continue to be favorable for exports. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - Long positions should be held cautiously [1]

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is about coal and lignite import data in June 2025 and related market analysis [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The decline in coal prices is mainly due to domestic trade pressure, and imported coal is in a following state. After the price of coking coal stabilizes, it rebounds. The situation of month - on - month import reduction is expected to ease in July, but the annual coal import volume will decrease. The static annualized coal import volume in 2025 is only 440 million tons, a significant reduction compared to last year's 640 million tons. Whether it can return to the pre - pandemic soft quota range of 300 million tons requires more policy guidance [2] Group 4: Data Summary - In June 2025, China imported 3007000 tons of coal and lignite, a decrease of 3003000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 8.3%. From January to June, the cumulative import of coal and lignite was 22170200 tons, a year - on - year decline of 11.1% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The signing of memorandums between BYD and CATL, two leading lithium - ion battery companies, and BHP has led to a significant rise in the lithium - ion battery sector [4][5]. - The cooperation establishes the first - mover advantage of CATL and BYD in the industrial battery field, and expands the application scenarios of new - energy lithium - ion batteries, driving the expected future demand growth and promoting the development of lithium - ion battery technology [5]. - Under recent positive stimuli, lithium carbonate is oscillating strongly in the range of 65,000 - 68,000 yuan per ton [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cooperation Details - BYD's wholly - owned subsidiary FDB and BHP will jointly research and explore power battery system solutions and supporting flash - charging infrastructure for heavy - duty mining equipment and locomotives, and explore the use of BYD commercial and light vehicles in BHP's mines to promote the diesel replacement technology process [4]. - CATL and BHP will cooperate in areas such as electrification of mining equipment, construction of fast - charging infrastructure, energy storage, and battery recycling to promote the electrification transformation of mine operations [4]. Market Performance - Lithium - ion battery stocks have hit the daily limit, and the sentiment has driven up lithium carbonate futures. As of the time of writing, the main contract price of lithium carbonate is 66,780 yuan per ton, with an intraday high of 68,360 yuan per ton [5]. Market Scale Forecast - According to BloombergNEF, the global market size of electrified mining equipment is expected to reach $28 billion by 2030 [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [3] - Egg: Interval [3] Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the spot market is generally weak and stable; in the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to gradually tighten and the price center will move upward; in the long term, policy grain sources and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space [1]. - Pig: In the short term, the pig price may fluctuate; in the medium term, the supply is expected to increase and it is difficult for the price to rise continuously; in the long term, the production capacity will continue to be realized [3]. - Egg: In the short term, the egg price stops falling and stabilizes; in the medium term, it may rebound; in the long term, if the breeding profit turns positive, the supply pressure may reappear and the price may fall [3]. Content Summaries by Variety Corn - **Market Review**: Last Friday night, the corn futures continued to be weak. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 1.25% to 2283 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: As of the end of the 28th week of 2025, Guangzhou port's grain inventory was 1.75 million tons; as of July 11, the four northern ports' corn inventory was about 2.56 million tons, and the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3350 lots; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 30 yuan/ton; on July 11, the auction of imported genetically - modified corn had a 49% transaction rate [1]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: Imported corn auctions continue with a lower transaction rate, and the overall bullish expectation in the spot market weakens. Medium - term: Imported grains and substitutes are expected to decrease, and the supply pattern will gradually tighten. Long - term: Policy grain sources and wheat substitution may limit the price increase [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term: Interval operation; medium - term: Go long at low levels; short - term: Under pressure, the support for the 2509 contract moves down to 2260 - 2280 [1]. Pig - **Market Review**: Last Friday, the main pig futures contract fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.1% to 14345 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.04% to 13645 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: On the 13th, the national average pig price was 14.64 yuan/kg; in May 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million; on July 11, the fat - standard price difference was 0.11 yuan/jin; on July 10, the weekly average slaughter weight was 124.74 kg; on July 11, the pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 447 lots [3]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: Support and pressure coexist, and the pig price may fluctuate. Medium - term: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Long - term: The production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term: Go short; medium - term: Interval operation; short - term: Try to break through the upper pressure. Pay attention to the band short - selling opportunities after the price reaches the pressure level. The pressure for the 2509 contract is 14400 - 14600, and for the 2511 contract is 13800 [3]. Egg - **Market Review**: Last Friday, the egg futures fluctuated. The JD2508 contract fell 0.15% to 3442 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract rose 0.22% to 3580 yuan/500kg [3]. - **Important Information**: On the 13th, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs rose to 2.58 yuan/jin; on the 11th, the average inventory in the production and circulation links decreased; on the 11th, the average price of old hens rose to 4.7 yuan/jin; in June, the number of laying hens was about 1.34 billion, and the estimated number in July is 1.352 billion [3]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: The egg price stops falling and stabilizes. Medium - term: It may rebound in August - September. Long - term: If the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The JD2508 contract operates in a wide range, with support at 3400 - 3420 and pressure at 3580 - 3600. The JD2509 contract adopts a short - selling strategy, with short - term pressure at 3650 - 3680 and support at 3500 - 3550. If the culling in the third quarter is less than expected, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [3].

Group 1 - The black building materials sector of steel products is expected to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - Friday, rebar continued to rise, but closed lower at night [1] - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, chaired a party group meeting, emphasizing high - end, intelligent, and green development in manufacturing [1] - This week, the output of five major steel products was 872,720 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,440 tons; the total inventory was 1,339,580 tons, a weekly decrease of 350 tons; consumption decreased by 1.4% [1] - Li Yongjun believes that the key to judging the industrial cycle is demand, and there is still room for per - capita consumption of crude steel in China [1] - Recently, steel mills in Shanxi are restricted in production by 10 - 20%. Last week, rebar production decreased, social inventory decreased, factory inventory increased, and total inventory decreased. Demand shows off - season characteristics [1] - The main pressure level of rebar is 3200, with an important support level at 3000; the support level of hot - rolled coil is 3130, and the pressure level is 3300; the support level of stainless steel is 12600, and the pressure level is 13000 [1] - The spread between spot and futures has widened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying spot and selling futures. For single - sided trading, there is a high possibility of a short - term correction. Aggressive investors can try short - selling with a stop - loss set [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening. The first round of coke price increase this week is expected to be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract as the spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening [1] Important Information - This week, the output of five major steel products was 872.72 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.44 million tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 1339.58 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the consumption of five major steel products was 873.07 million tons, a decrease of 1.4% [1] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.918 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 642.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.5 million tons [1] - On July 11, the price of top - charged coke in major production areas such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia increased by up to 95 yuan/ton, and the prices of tamping wet - quenched coke and dry - quenched coke increased by 70 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively [1] Market Logic - On Friday night session, both coking coal and coke continued to see significant position - increasing, but the increase was relatively limited. The first round of coke price increase this week will be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly [1] Trading Strategy - The spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1]

Report Overview - The report is issued by Green大华 Futures Research Institute on July 14, 2025, focusing on the morning session notice of precious metals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The prices of gold and silver in the precious metals sector are in a state of oscillation. The price of COMEX gold is expected to range between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce, and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract is expected to operate between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1] Key Information Summary Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to 3370.3 dollars per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to 39.08 dollars per ounce. At night, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.68% to 778.42 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 2.38% to 9232 yuan per kilogram [1] ETF Holdings - As of July 11, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.17 tons from the previous day to 947.64 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 131.41 tons from the previous day to 14758.52 tons [1] CFTC Data - As of the week ending July 8, COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,855 contracts to 134,842 contracts [1] Tariff Policy - On July 12, local time, Trump announced on social media that starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU. On July 9, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, effective from August 1, 2025 [1] Market Logic - US fiscal deficits and tariff policies have increased inflation concerns. The US dollar index rebounded slightly on July 11 and then fluctuated narrowly horizontally. Gold prices rose on July 11, and silver prices increased significantly [1] Trading Strategy - Gold prices are oscillating, with COMEX gold operating between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract operating between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, pigs, eggs) are rated as "Range" [1][3] Core Viewpoints - For corn, short - term prices are weak and stable, mid - term prices may rise but with limited upside, and long - term prices are restricted by policies and substitutes, following an import - substitution and planting - cost pricing logic [1] - For pigs, short - term prices will oscillate, mid - term supply may increase, and long - term production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3] - For eggs, short - term prices may confirm a bottom, mid - term prices may rebound during the peak season, and long - term prices may fall if the fourth - quarter supply pressure is realized [3] Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Review**: Overnight corn futures oscillated. The 2509 contract rose 0.04% to 2319 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were stable with a slight decline; port prices were stable in the north and weak in the south; futures warehouse receipts decreased; wheat - corn spread was 30 yuan/ton; 305,643 tons of imported corn will be auctioned on July 11 [1] - **Market Logic**: Short - term bullish expectations are weak, mid - term supply may tighten, but long - term price increases are restricted [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term range operation; mid - term low - buying; short - term downward pressure, with support for the 2509 contract at 2300 - 2320 [1] Pigs - **Market Review**: The main contracts of pig futures were slightly stronger. The LH2509 contract rose 1.09% to 14375 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.77% to 13695 yuan/ton [3] - **Important Information**: The national average pig price fell slightly; relevant inventory and price differentials were announced [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term oscillation, mid - term supply may increase, and long - term production capacity will continue to be realized [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term short - selling; mid - term range operation; short - term strength to test resistance, with pressure for the 2509 contract at 14400 - 14600 and for the 2511 contract at 13800 [3] Eggs - **Market Review**: Egg futures oscillated. The JD2508 contract fell 0.69% to 3446 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract fell 0.2% to 3578 yuan/500kg [3] - **Important Information**: Egg spot prices stopped falling with some small increases; inventory decreased; relevant data on laying hens were announced [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term prices may confirm a bottom, mid - term prices may rebound, and long - term prices may fall if supply pressure is realized [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The 08 contract has a wide - range operation, with pressure at 3600 - 3650 and support at 3400 - 3450; the 09 contract has a short - selling strategy, with pressure at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550. If the third - quarter culling is less than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for other contracts [3][4]