Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 11 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | -- ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 11 日星期三 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日 | SR605 | 合约收盘价 | 5278 | 元/吨，日涨幅 | 0.32%，夜盘收 | 5281 | 元/吨；SR609 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 5288 | 元/吨，日涨幅 | 0.27%，夜盘收 | 5290 | 元/吨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1.巴西对外贸易秘书处（Secex）公布的出口数据显示，巴西 | 2 | 月第一周出口糖和糖 | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic sector is rated as "downward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy has started to decline since the end of 2025 due to a series of wrong policies in the US [3] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major global assets [3] - Wash's combination of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in Fed's monetary policy, which will lead to a strong expectation of liquidity contraction for equity assets [3] - There are significant risks in the US financial market, including potential capital controls, a possible stock market crash, and a negative impact on consumption [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Situation - Hedge funds have been net - selling US stocks for four consecutive weeks, with the most intense selling since early April last year [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility put the world on the verge of a "capital war", and the US may face capital control risks [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of the Fed's incoming chairman Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - The uncertainty of the Fed is expected to peak from July to November 2026, which may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relations with China and trying to revive its economic autonomy [2] - Consumer spending in the US shows a K - shaped divergence, with high - income consumers remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] Stock Market Conditions - The short - selling volume of single - stocks reached a record high last week, and the short - selling scale was twice the long - buying scale from January 30 to February 5 [1] - Anxiety about AI reshaping the US economy led to a sell - off on Wall Street, with a total of $611 billion in market value evaporating from 164 stocks in the software, financial services, and asset management sectors last week [1] - Funds are flowing from tech stocks to defensive sectors, and investors should be wary of subsequent sharp fluctuations [1][2] - The Nasdaq futures rebounded after breaking through the six - month moving average, which is a technical pull - back and may trigger a new round of large - scale tech stock selling [3] Commodity Market Conditions - The core driving force of this round of commodity market is a "hard - asset rotation" from global investment portfolios, which can significantly boost commodity prices in the short term [1] Private Credit Market Conditions - AI's disruption of the software industry has impacted the private credit market, causing the stock prices of institutions like Ares and KKR to plummet [1] - UBS warns that if the disruption accelerates, the private credit default rate may soar to 13% [1] Space - related News - Musk has shifted SpaceX's focus from going to Mars to building a city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved within 10 years, while going to Mars will take more than 20 years [1] Monetary Policy Expectations - PIMCO's global economic advisor believes that Wash may adjust the forward guidance, balance sheet, credit allocation, and mortgage - related areas [1] - Wash may not provide forward guidance on monetary policy and may support two or even three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year [1]

证监许可【2011】1288号 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 贵金属：COMEX黄金、COMEX白银 走势 2025年12月31日COMEX黄金收盘4332.1美元/盎司，1月29日高点5626.8美元/盎司，2月2日低点4423.2美元/盎 司，2月9日收盘5084.20美元/盎司。 2025年12月31日COMEX白银收盘70.98美元/盎司，1月30日高点121.785美元/盎司，2月6日低点63.9美元/盎司， 2月9日收盘83.05美元/盎司。 报告 黄金白银近期走势分析 2026年2月10日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 沪金和沪银走势 2025年12月31日沪金收盘977.56元/克，1月29日高点1258.72元/克，2月2日低点1005.4元/克，2月10日收盘 1121.22元/克。 2025年12月31日沪银收盘17074元/千克，1月30日高点32382元/千克，2月6日低点17900元/千克，2月10日收盘 20284元/ ...

市场快讯 --- 出口大增 库存增速低于预期 2026年2月10日、马来西亚棕榈油局1月报告出台，MPOB数据显示，马来西亚1月棕榈油产量为157745吨，环比减少13.78%。 马来西亚1月棕榈油库存量为2815493吨，环比减少7.72%。马来西亚1月棕榈油出口为1484267吨，环比增长11.44%。马来西 亚1月棕榈油进口为32316吨,环比减少2.93%。 整体报告数据偏多，产量降幅高于预期,库存增幅低于预期，出口数据大增。但是由于春节临近、交易日不多、长假期间 外围市场仍有风险,建议可以买入虚值看涨期权P2605-C-9200进行参与。 类别 路透 预期 2026年 1月 2025年 12月 2025年 1月 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 数据来源：文华财 | 157.75 | 3.23 | 148.43 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (-13.78%) (-2.93%) | | (+11.44%) | (-7 | | 183 | 3.3 | 131.65 | | | 123.71 | 8.8 | 116.83 | T | 林大华期货有 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周一螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、据国际船舶网跟踪：2026 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 2 | 日至 | 2026 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 8 | 日，全球船厂共接获 | 65+2 | 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 | 58 | 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 | 7+2 | 艘新船订单。 | | 2、2026 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 6 | 日，巴西发展、工业、贸易和服务部外贸秘书处（Ministério | do | Desenvolvimento, | Indústri ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 12 元至 1788 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 30 元至 1790 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 8530 手至 26.1 万手，空头持仓增加 10680 手至 27.6 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.11 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 1.63 万吨；今日开工率 89.66%，较去年同期 87.01%回升 2.65%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 91.85 万吨，较上周减少 2.63 万吨，环比减 少 2.79%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比持平。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 41.3%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 66.4%，环比+2.8%。 4、印 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "range - bound". [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The coking coal market shows a supply - demand double - weak fundamental situation approaching the Spring Festival. Private coal mines are gradually shutting down for holidays, and downstream demand is weakly stable. Although the customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal has declined, the inventory pressure remains high, putting pressure on the coking coal futures. It is expected that both coking coal and coke will maintain a weakly stable operation before the festival. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - The main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1,147.0 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.75% compared to the daytime session opening. The main coke contract J2605 closed at 1,703.5 yuan/ton, up 0.26% compared to the daytime session opening. In the night session, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,126.5 yuan/ton, down 1.79% compared to the daytime session closing, and the coke main contract closed at 1,685.0 yuan/ton, down 1.09% compared to the daytime session closing. [1] Important Information - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced on February 9 that provincial ecological environment departments should pre - allocate the 2025 annual carbon emission allowances to key emission units in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries before April 10, 2026. - On February 9, the coking coal prices in Linfen Yaodu District, Linfen Anze, and Jinzhong markets remained stable. The high - sulfur strong fat coal in Linfen Yaodu District was priced at 1,150 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive tax at the factory; the low - sulfur main coking clean coal in Linfen Anze was 1,570 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive tax at the factory; and the medium - sulfur main coking clean coal in Jinzhong was 1,280 yuan/ton, cash - inclusive tax at the factory. [1] Market Logic - Approaching the Spring Festival, the overall supply - demand situation of coking coal is weak. Private coal mines are shutting down, and downstream demand is weakly stable. The high inventory of Mongolian coal at the port still exerts pressure on the coking coal futures. [1] Trading Strategy - The market is expected to be range - bound before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market during the Spring Festival holiday. [1]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 10 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | | | | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一铁矿收跌。夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约 2605 合约涨跌幅 0%，收于 2276 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、昨日深加工企业收购价弱稳为主。中国粮油商务网监测数据显示东北地区深加工 | | | | | 企业收购价2170元/吨，较上周五持平；华北地区企业收购均价2304元/吨，较上周 | | | | | 五跌1元/吨。 | | | | | 2、昨日南北港口价格稳定。中国粮油商务网监测数据显示锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2270-2280元/吨，较上周五持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2400元/吨，较上周五持平 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 3、仓单方面，大商所数据显示截至2月9日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0手 | | | 玉 ...