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中国9月出口增长超预期
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 09:36
期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年10月13日 | 宏观国债研究员:刘洋 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号: | F3063825 | 交易咨询证号: Z0016580 联系方式: liuyang18036@greend h.com 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间:2025年10月13日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 17.4%。前9个月出口汽车(包括底盘)同比增长10.8%,1-8月同比 增长10.8%,去年全年增长15.5%。前9个月出口家电同比下降2.2% ,1-8月同比下降1.2%,去年全年增长14.1%。前9个月出口服装及衣 着附件同比下降2.5%,1-8月同比下降1.7%,去年全年增长0.3%。前 9个月出口玩具同比下降8.3%,1-8月同比下降5.2%,去年全年下降1 .7%。从出口品类金额的增减变化,我们可以观察到9月新兴产品和传 统产品的出口进一步分化。机电产品、高科技产品、集成电路的出口 增速扩大,传统的劳动密集型产品服装、玩具出口降幅扩大,家电出 口降幅扩大,汽车出口增长保持了平稳。 9月中国进口增长超预期。9月中国 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:三油-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 05:40
Morning session notice 研究员: 刘锦 从业资格:F0276812 交易咨询资格:Z0011862 联系方式:13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 10 月 10 日,马来 9 月供需报告意外偏空,库存实际情况与市场预期相左,引发内 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 外盘齐跌,植物油板块走弱。 豆油主力合约 Y2601 合约报收于 8302 元/吨,按收盘价日环比下跌 0.36%,日减仓 | | | | | 1961 手; | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8052 元/吨,按收盘价日环比下跌 0.27%,日增 | | | | | 仓 2663 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 9438 元/吨,按收盘价日环比下跌 1.38%,日减 | | | | | 仓 11311 手; | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 9266 元/吨,按收盘价日环比下跌 1%,日增仓 11306 | | | | | 手; | | | | | 菜籽油 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:贵金属-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:34
研究员: 刘洋 从业资格: F3063825 交易咨询资格:Z0016580 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 13 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式:liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.58%报 4035.50 美元/盎司,COMEX 白银期货涨 0.76%报 47.52 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.42%报 913.26 元/克,沪银跌 1.37%报 11059 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、截至 10 月 10 日,全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.72 | | | | | 吨,当前持仓量为 1017.16 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日减少 8.47 吨,当前持仓量为 154 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:钢材-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:33
研究员: 纪晓云 从业资格: F3066027 交易咨询资格:Z0011402 联系方式:010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 钢材: | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五螺卷跳空高开,收阴线。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问时表示,中国的 | | | | | 出口管制不是禁止出口,对符合规定的申请将予以许可。中方事先已就措施可能对 | | | | | 产供链产生的影响进行了充分评估,并确信相关影响非常有限。如果美方一意孤行, | | | | | 中方也必将坚决采取相应措施,维护自身正当权益。 | | | | | 2、住建部:目前全国白名单项目贷款的审批金额已经超过了 7 万亿元,有力保障 | | | | | 了商品房项目建设交付。存量住房市场规模持续扩大,全国已有 15 个省区市二手 | | | | | 住宅的交易量超过新房。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 3、据了解,自国家发 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:焦煤、焦炭-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:28
联系方式:010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1161.0 元/吨,较本周开盘上涨 3.13%;焦炭主力合约 | | | | | J2601 收于 1666.5 元/吨,较本周开盘上涨 2.49%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问时表示,中国的出口 | | | | | 管制不是禁止出口,对符合规定的申请将予以许可。中方事先已就措施可能对产供链产 | | | | | 生的影响进行了充分评估,并确信相关影响非常有限。如果美方一意孤行,中方也必将 | | | | | 坚决采取相应措施,维护自身正当权益。 | | | | | 2、住建部:目前全国白名单项目贷款的审批金额已经超过了 7 万亿元,有力保障了商 | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 短空 | 品房项目建设交付。存量住房市场规模持续扩大,全国已有 15 个省区市二手住宅的交 | | | 焦炭 | | 易量超 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:国债-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 01:58
研究员: 刘洋 从业资格: F3063825 交易咨询资格:Z0016580 联系方式:liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘半数小幅高开半数平开,全天震荡下行,截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2512 下跌 0.49%,10 年期 T2512 下跌 0.06%,5 年期 TF2512 | | | | | 下跌 0.09%,2 年期 TS2512 下跌 0.05%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场:上周五央行开展了 4090 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作,当日有 6000 亿元 | | | | | 逆回购到期,当日合计实现净回笼 1910 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场:10 月 11 日银行间市场正常开盘,银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交 | | | | | 易日小幅下行,DR001 全天加权平均为 1.31%,上一交易日加权平均 1.32%;DR007 | | | | | 全天加权平均为 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:全球经济-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 01:08
早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员: 于军礼 从业资格: F0247894 交易咨询资格:Z0000112 联系方式:yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、全球央行行长将在下周 IMF 和世界银行秋季年会上重点讨论股市泡沫及潜在的 | | | | 崩盘风险。IMF 总裁 Kristalina Georgieva 已经警告,当前资产估值已接近 25 年 | | | | 前互联网泡沫时期的水平,市场若大幅回调将拖累全球经济。 | | | | 2、商务部表示,中国的出口管制不是禁止出口,只要是用于民用用途的、合规的 | | | | 出口申请,都可以获得批准,相关企业无须担心。美方管制清单物项超过 3000 项, | | | | 而中方出口管制清单物项仅 900 余项。 | | | | 3、伦敦现货白银价格相对纽约期货出现了史无前例的溢价水平,市场流动性几乎 | | | | 枯竭。持有空头头寸的交易商难以找到可交割的金属,被迫支付高昂成本以延后结 | | | | 算 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:甲醇-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 00:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "oscillating weakly" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Methanol downstream shows a lackluster peak season, with both ports and production areas accumulating inventory after the holiday. The import volume in August was 175.98 million tons, a 59% increase month-on-month. Trump's sudden announcement of a 100% tariff on all Chinese exports to the US led to a sharp drop in the crude oil price. However, the rumored expansion of sanctions on Iranian shipping may disrupt future imports. In the short term, the methanol price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a reference range of 2260 - 2360 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On the Friday night session, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose by 19 yuan to 2314 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the mainstream East China region rose by 20 yuan to 2245 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 4918 lots to 617,600 lots, while short positions decreased by 200 lots to 745,700 lots [2] 2. Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 82.5%, a 2.6% month-on-month increase, and the overseas operating rate is 68.4%, a 7% month-on-month increase [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5432 million tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 47,800 tons, and that in South China increased by 3,200 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 339,400 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons from the previous period, a 6.08% month-on-month increase [2] - **Demand**: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 18,700 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons month-on-month. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 115,200 tons, a decrease of 157,800 tons from the previous period, a 57.79% month-on-month decrease. The olefin operating rate is 93.7%, a 4.4% month-on-month increase; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 4.9%, a 2.2% month-on-month decrease; the methyl chloride operating rate is 88.7%, a 1.1% month-on-month increase; the acetic acid operating rate is 82.9%, a 0.7% month-on-month decrease; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.1%, a 10% month-on-month decrease; the MTBE operating rate is 64.1%, a 0.1% month-on-month decrease [2] 3. Market Logic - Methanol downstream shows a lackluster peak season, with inventory accumulation after the holiday. The sharp increase in August imports and Trump's tariff announcement have an impact on the market. The Iranian shipping sanctions may disrupt future imports, and the short - term methanol price is expected to oscillate weakly [2] 4. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the strategy is mainly short - selling at high levels [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示:尿素-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 00:51
Morning session notice 联系方式:15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 10 加 | 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2601 价格下跌 22 元至 1597 元/吨,华中主流地区现货价格下跌 元至 1530 元/吨。持仓方面,多头持仓增加 15799 手至 22.37 万手,空头持仓增 22397 手至 27.48 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面,尿素行业日产 19.94 万吨,较上一工作日减少 0.1 万吨;今日开工率 | | | | | 85.2%,较去年同期 85.13%增加 0.08%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面,中国尿素企业总库存量 144.39 万吨,较上周增加 21.22 万吨,环比 | | | | | 增加 17.23%。尿素港口样本库存量 41.5 万吨,环比减少 3.8 万吨。 | | 能源与化 | 尿素 | 偏空 | 3、需求方面,复合肥开工率 25.5%,环比-6.9%,三聚氰胺开工率 65.4%,环比+3.9%。 | | 工 | | | 4、印度 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-12 23:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index led to the adjustment of the two - market major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding strong support around the 3900 - point level [1][2] - The decline of the semiconductor equipment sector was due to the liquidity shock of the reduction in the margin collateral conversion rate, which did not affect the long - term optimism of semiconductor self - controllability [2] - The new tariff shock is likely to hit the bottom in the first half of the week, or even on Monday [2] - The US's restriction on Chinese chips and China's counter - control of rare earths have changed the offensive - defensive situation in the Sino - US AI competition, and the interruption of US AI evolution may cause a catastrophic decline in US stocks [2] - The impact of the current situation on the Chinese stock market will be much smaller than that in April, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to have strong support around the 3800 - point level [2] - The semiconductor self - controllable and substitution fields are expected to become hotspots, while the overseas computing power chain will face negative impacts [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Affected by the sharp decline of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index, the two - market major indices adjusted. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.51 trillion yuan, showing a slight contraction. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4616 points, down 92 points or - 1.97%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2974 points, down 45 points or - 1.51%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7398 points, down 150 points or - 2.00%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7533 points, down 114 points or - 1.49% [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were building materials ETF, coal ETF, Belt and Road ETF, breeding ETF, and oil and gas resources ETF; those with the highest losses were lithium battery ETF, integrated circuit ETF, and Sci - Tech Innovation chip ETF. Among the two - market sector indices, those with the highest gains were ground military equipment, cement, coke processing, water services, and gas indices; those with the highest losses were battery, semiconductor, energy metals, home appliance parts, and photovoltaic equipment indices [1] - The net outflows of settled funds from stock index futures of the CSI 500, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 Indices were 4.8 billion, 1.4 billion, and 400 million yuan respectively [1] Important Information - China's export control is not a ban on exports. As long as the export applications are for civilian use and compliant, they can be approved. The US control list has over 3000 items, while China's export control list has only over 900 items [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, and will conduct research and evaluation on the average industry cost [1] - For A - shares with a static price - earnings ratio of over 300 times or a negative value, and warrants, the conversion rate in margin trading is adjusted to 0% [1] - "Deep learning father" Hinton suggested that AI may have "subjective experience" and self - awareness that has not yet awakened [1] - The London spot silver price has a record - high premium over the New York futures price, and market liquidity is almost exhausted [1] - Deutsche Bank predicted that by 2030, Bitcoin and gold may jointly become important components of central bank reserve assets. Currently, the global central bank's US dollar reserve share has dropped to 41%, while the gold reserve has exceeded 36,000 tons [2] - Investors expect that after the Red Sea - Suez Canal resumes safe passage, the global supply chain efficiency will be restored, and the high container freight rates will decline. However, the insurance industry has chosen to stay put [2] - Global central bank governors will focus on discussing stock market bubbles and potential crash risks at the upcoming IMF and World Bank autumn annual meetings. IMF President Kristalina Georgieva has warned that current asset valuations are close to those during the Internet bubble 25 years ago [2] Market Logic - The adjustment of the two - market major indices was due to the sharp decline of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index, and the Shanghai Composite Index found strong support around the 3900 - point level. The decline of the semiconductor equipment sector was due to the liquidity shock of the reduction in the margin collateral conversion rate, which did not affect the long - term optimism of semiconductor self - controllability [1][2] - The launch of the DeepSeek V3.2 - Exp efficient AI model by Goldman Sachs will greatly reduce the threshold for using AI technology, leading to an increase in demand for computing power infrastructure and related hardware [2] - According to the HSBC emerging market survey, investors' optimism has increased, and China has become the preferred market for stock investment. 100 surveyed institutions manage a total of $423 billion in emerging market assets [2] Future Market Outlook - Due to the liquidity shock of the reduction in the margin collateral conversion rate, the two - market major indices fell sharply on Friday. Affected by the US President's tariff remarks, US stocks tumbled on Friday night [2] - China's control of rare earths is a firm response to the US's large - scale restriction on mature - process semiconductor equipment materials. The interruption of US AI evolution may cause a catastrophic decline in US stocks [2] - The impact on the Chinese stock market will be much smaller than that in April, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to have strong support around the 3800 - point level [2] Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, the shock is likely to hit the bottom in the first half of the week, or even on Monday. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly configured with the CSI 300 Index [3] - For stock index option trading, the shock is likely to hit the bottom in the first half of the week, or even on Monday. Investors can choose to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 300 Index at the bottom [3]