Morning session notice 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 1 日，天气扰动，东南亚洪涝，马棕榈油继续走强，带动植物油板块整体走强。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约Y2601合约报收于8288元/吨，按收盘价日环上涨0.53%，日增仓14314 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8086 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.57%，日增 | | | | | 仓 31341 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 8652 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.30%，日减 | | | | | 仓 18937 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 8698 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.23%，日减仓 | | | | | 2411 手； | | | | | 菜籽油主力合约 OI2 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一两市主要指数震荡上行，通信设备、有色板块领涨。两市成交额 1.87 万亿元， | | | | | 上涨放量。沪深 300 指数收 4576 点，涨 49，涨幅 1.10%；上证 50 指数收 2993 点， | | | | | 涨 24 点，涨幅 0.81%；中证 500 指数收 7101 点，涨 70 点，涨幅 1.00%；中证 1000 | | | | | 指数收 7386 点，涨 52 点，涨幅 0.72%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是黄金股票 | | | | | ETF 基金、工业有色 ETF、通信设备 ETF、物联网 ETF、旅游 ETF，跌幅 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、白银价格创下新高。中国白银库存降至 715.8 吨的七年新低。这一行情不仅反 | | | | 映 | 10 月份中国创纪录出口 660 吨白银引发的供需失衡，更印证供应驱动型涨价正 | | | | | 从贵金属向工业金属蔓延，成为大宗商品的普遍趋势。 | | | | | 2、半夏投资创始人李蓓表示，富人面临财富无处安放的资产荒。股市赚钱效应将 | | | | | 引发居民储蓄搬家、国内机构资产配置重构，更会触发全球资金重新配置、海外资 | | | | | 本回流中国市场的浪潮。这一轮行情非常可能会泡沫化，达到相当的高度。 | | | | | 3、马斯克表示，未来 SpaceX、特斯拉和 xAI ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，早盘小幅冲高后回落，午后横向窄幅波动， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.05%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.03%， 5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 3013 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 3750 亿元 逆回购到期，当日合计净回笼 737 亿元。 | | | | | 2 ...

Morning session notice 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 | 8.97%，同比下降 | 8.95%。 | 8、11 | 月 | 11 | 日（周二），研究机构 | CGS | International | Research | 表示，植物油市场受到需 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 求增加支撑，这将导致毛棕榈油价格进一步上涨。 | 其并称，预计 | 2026 | 年全球生物柴油需求 | 将强劲增长，给全球植物油价格提供结构性支撑。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 现货方面：截止 | 11 | 月 | 28 | 日，张家港豆油现货均价 | 8530 | 元/吨，环比 | 0 | 元/吨；基差 | 286 | 元/吨，环比下跌 | 20 | 元/吨；广东棕榈油现货均价 | 8390 | 元/吨，环比上涨 | 100 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货收涨 1.59%报 4256.4 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货收涨 6.06%报 57.085 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.97%报 959.82 元/克，沪银涨 5.17%报 13191 元/千 克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 11 月 28 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1045.43 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 增加 28.21 吨，当前持仓量为 15610.54 吨。。 2、据 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 86.4%， 维持利率不变 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market has an international supply situation with increased production in Brazil and a good harvest in the US. Domestically, new - cotton processing is faster, but textile companies are cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory. The recommended trading strategy is to close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume is 284,007 lots, and the open interest is 954,257 lots. The settlement prices for January, May, and September are 13,635 yuan/ton, 13,595 yuan/ton, and 13,715 yuan/ton respectively. The ICE December contract settlement price is 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract is 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract is 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning enterprises in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with impurity within 2.8%. The basis transaction price of the 2601 contract is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price is 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures both increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning enterprises reported that the downstream sales had slowed down, the finished - product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Market Logic - Internationally, Brazil's cotton production is expected to reach 4.11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 11.1%), and the export shipment volume remains high; the US production has been adjusted up to 3.07 million tons, and the harvest progress is slightly faster than the annual average. Domestically, the new - cotton processing progress is faster than the same period last year, and the improved quality indicators have significantly increased the sales rate. However, textile enterprises are still cautious about restocking due to weak orders and sufficient raw - material inventory [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract and hold the long - call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bearish" [1] Core View - The overall performance of the coking coal spot market remained weak last week. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. Although the downward range slowed down last week, there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the closing price of the coking coal main contract was 1,067.0 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.26%. The closing price of the coke main contract was 1,574.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [1] Important Information - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1] - In October, the bond market issued a total of 635.746 billion yuan of various bonds. Treasury bonds issued 116.955 billion yuan, local government bonds issued 56.047 billion yuan, financial bonds issued 80.108 billion yuan, corporate credit - related bonds issued 118.362 billion yuan, credit asset - backed securities issued 3.434 billion yuan, and inter - bank certificates of deposit issued 256.49 billion yuan [1] - Shanxi officially released a new "Regulations on Ecological and Environmental Protection in Shanxi Province", which for the first time established a special chapter on "green and low - carbon development", clearly requiring the promotion of green and low - carbon transformation of energy, emission reduction and carbon reduction in key areas, and the establishment of a coal consumption total control system [1] Market Logic - Last week, the coking coal spot market was still weak. The profitability of steel mills continued to shrink, production enthusiasm was average, and pig iron output declined steadily. The first round of price cuts in the coke market started last Friday and is expected to be implemented this week. The double - coking futures led the decline in the spot market. The downward range slowed down last week, and there is obvious support below due to the winter storage expectation in December. In the short term, double - coking may oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - The support level of the coking coal futures has moved down. The support for the main contract is 1,030, and the support for the Jm2605 contract is 1,100 [1]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收涨， | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、工信部：智能网联汽车将形成万亿元级消费领域。 | | | | | 2、 中钢协：2025 年 11 月焦煤长协煤钢联动浮动值，比 10 月上涨 78 元。 | | | | | 3、重庆：支持使用专项债券收回收购符合条件的存量闲置土地。 | | | | | 4、全联冶金商会会长龚盛强调，在全球贸易壁垒加剧、传统需求收缩的情况下， | | | | | 必须苦练内功创新发展，以自身的确定性应对外部的不确定性。民营钢铁企业要加 | | | | | 大研发投入，突破关键技术；推进智能化改造，提升生产效率；深化绿色化发展， | | | | | 构建绿色制造体系。 | | | | | 5、国家统计局数据显示，11 月份我国制造业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百 | ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五两市主要指数走势分化，半导体设备板块领涨，随着 AI 关注点转向应用，成 | | | | | 长类指数逐步成为焦点。两市成交额 1.58 万亿元，继续缩量。沪深 300 指数收 4526 | | | | | 点，涨 11，涨幅 0.25%；上证 50 指数收 2969 点，跌 2 点，涨幅-0.09%；中证 500 | | | | | 指数收 7031 点，涨 80 点，涨幅 1.15%；中证 1000 指数收 7334 点，涨 76 点，涨幅 | | | | | 1.06%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是科创半导体 ETF、稀有金属 ETF、卫星 ETF、 | | | | | 半导体设备 ETF、新能源车 ETF，跌幅居前的是中药 ETF、银行 ETF 基金、创新药 | | | | | ETF 华泰柏瑞。两市板块指数中涨 ...