格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格下跌 8 元至 5908 元/吨。持仓方面，主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 合约 2509 持仓量为 4.23 万手，持仓-618 手。现货市场方面，华东市场水瓶级瓶片 价格下跌 5 元至 6000 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格下跌 10 至 6050 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 35.42 万吨，较上周减少 1.14 万吨。 | | | | | 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 77.5%，较上周下降 2.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5725 | | | | | 元，下降 3.1%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-300 元/吨，环比增加 ...

Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 04 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日 SM2509 合约收于 5712，环比上一交易日收盘下跌 0.24%。SF2509 合约收于 5390， 环比上一交易日收盘下跌 0.85%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本周，五大品种钢材总库存量 1339.93 万吨，周环比降 0.1 万吨。其中，钢厂库存 | | | | | 量 423.8 万吨，周环比降 9.72 万吨；社会库存量 916.13 万吨，周环比增 9.62 万吨。 | | | | | 2、7 月 3 日，国内市场炼焦煤稳中偏强运行。本周，Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山 | | | | | 样本精煤日均产量 73.9 万吨，环比增 0.1 万吨，精煤库存 409.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend. The US labor market is strong, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. China's economic indicators such as the PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition boosts listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's military expansion promotes the recovery of European manufacturing. China may take the lead in the "robot race" [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Important Information - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, and all Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face at least a 20% tariff and "fully open the market" to the US [1] - In June, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, and the non - farm payrolls in April and May were revised up by a total of 16,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% [1] - BlackRock believes that due to the strong profit growth driven by AI, US stocks are still the best investment choice and are expected to outperform European stocks again. In the context of inflation concerns and increasing debt burdens, US Treasuries will perform worse than US stocks [1] - The US Department of Commerce has revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China [1] - The London copper price has climbed close to this year's highest level, and the overnight spread of copper prices jumped to a premium of nearly $100 per ton last week, the largest gap since 2021. Analysts warn of a possible "short squeeze" [1] - The European Commission has proposed a revision to the European Climate Law, aiming to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2040 [1] - In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year, while the export volume only decreased by 3.9%, indicating that Japan maintained shipments and market share through significant price cuts but suffered a heavy blow to profits [1] - Citi believes that whether stablecoins substantially drive the demand for US Treasuries depends on the source of funds. If newly issued stablecoins come from the transfer of existing bank deposits or money market funds, there will be no net new demand for US Treasuries [1] Global Economic Logic - The strong US non - farm payroll data in June shows a robust labor market. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the rectification of involution - style competition boosts corporate performance. The European Central Bank's 8 interest - rate cuts and Germany's 30% military expansion drive the recovery of European manufacturing. China may lead in the "robot race" [1]

供给侧改革关键节点与煤炭、钢铁期货价格波动时间线 2021-2023年,能 耗双控政策采化, 煤炭、有色供给 百年 超星,PPI回升, 3288.2 5414 工业景气度改善。 2016年2月,《天 4656 2729.3 于化解钢铁煤炭过 剩产能的意见》设 定钢铁、煤炭去产 能里化目标,行政 与市场手段结合。 2025年7月,中央 2170.5 财经委会议提出 "防内卷",治 年10月,日 2015年11月,中央财 理低价音争,排 百次明确能想保 经领导小组十一次会 释放煤矿先进产能 议首次提出"供给侧 高质量 的经 2022年2月,俄马冲 1611.7 结构性改革" 突加剧能源危机 2015年12月,中央经 2022年3月,美国盲 T作会议细化"二 布释放1.8亿桶原油 补" 任务 储备 2024年3月,《曲廣 20年7月起,疫情直 作报告》设定单位GDP 2384 1052.8 次复苏,大宗商品供 能耗降低目标(2.5%) 2017-2018年,产能出 音音歌 2024年5月,《节能降 843.0 清完成,钢铁、煤炭产 2020年9月,"双張" 碳行动方案》,分行 能利用率回升至合理水 目标提出,改革重 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹、热卷大幅上涨，夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委近日安排超 3000 亿元支持 2025 年第三批"两重"建设项目。至此， | | | | | 今年 8000 亿元"两重"建设项目清单已全部下达完毕。 | | | | | 2、截至 6 月 30 日，27 城出台 34 条楼市松绑政策，其中多地住房公积金政策再迎 | | | | | 优化，包括进一步拓宽使用场景、打破区域壁垒、扩大覆盖人群等，部分城市延长 | | | | | 相关松绑政策期限。 | | | | | 3、国务院副总理张国清近日在湖北调研制造业转型升级和创新发展等工 ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，全天震荡上行，30 年期品种表现较强，截至 收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 0.40%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 0.14%，5 | | | | | 年期 TF2509 上涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 985 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 3653 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日实现净回笼 2668 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金 ...

联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 19 元/吨至 2412 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 减少 | 货价格下跌 65 元/吨至 2465 元/吨。多头持仓减少 382 手至 43.13 万手，空头持仓 19618 手至 49.81 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 88.65%，环比上涨 0.76%。海外甲醇开工率 54.25%， 环比下降 0.7%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 67.37 万吨，较上一期数据增加 0.32 万吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 1.35 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.03 万吨。 | | | | | 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 35.23 万吨，较上期增加 1.07 万吨，环比涨 3.14%。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 6.1 万吨，环比减少 0.4 万吨。样本企业订单待发 | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 震荡偏 24.13 | 万吨，较上 ...

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 焦炭 | 震荡偏多 | 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2509 收于 843.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 3.56%；焦炭主力合约 J2509 收于 1442.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 3.85%。夜盘 Jm2509 收于 844.0，环比日收盘上涨 0.06%。 J2509 合约收于 1435.0，环比日收盘下跌 0.49%。 【重要资讯】 1、美国总统特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征收 20%关税，任 何转运货物将被征收 40%的关税。另外，越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。 2、本周，全国 110 家洗煤厂样本开工率为 59.72%，较上期增 0.62 个百分点；日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on four major stock index futures contracts, suggesting a long position [2] - Recommend buying out - of - the - money long - term index call options [2] 2. Core View - The capital market's role as a multi - level "accelerator" and "stabilizer" in promoting consumption is becoming more prominent through a closed - loop policy design [1][2] - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market as the central financial commission promotes the construction of a unified national market and regulates disorderly low - price competition among enterprises [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Review - On Wednesday, the main stock indices in the two markets showed divergent trends. Value - based indices were consolidating strongly, while growth - based indices were adjusting. The photovoltaic sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.37 trillion yuan, showing a contraction. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6309 points, down 64 points (-1.01%); the CSI 500 index closed at 5892 points, down 41 points (-0.70%); the SSE 300 index closed at 3943 points, up 1 point (0.02%); the SSE 50 index closed at 2722 points, up 4 points (0.18%) [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, steel ETF, photovoltaic leading ETF, building materials ETF, coal ETF, and new energy innovation ETF led the gains, while innovative drug ETF (Fuguo), aerospace ETF, and 5G communication ETF led the losses [1] - Among the sector indices in the two markets, the marine economy, general steel, photovoltaic equipment, cement, and BC battery indices led the gains, while the ground military equipment, components, military trade concept, communication equipment, and human brain engineering indices led the losses [1] - The net inflow of settled funds in the SSE 300 index futures (IH) was 300 million yuan [1] Important News - The automotive industry's "involution - style" competition has led to a continuous 10% - 15% decline in parts procurement prices, deteriorating the operations of upstream suppliers and downstream dealers [1] - Bond ETFs have become an important tool in asset allocation, with their total scale exceeding 350 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The prices of Chinese - made goods on Amazon in the US are rising faster than the overall US inflation rate, and tariffs are starting to impact US consumers [1] - The eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, and Germany's manufacturing PMI reaching a 34 - month high [1] - US JOLTS job openings in May were 7.769 million, higher than the expected 7.3 million, and the number of voluntary quits increased from 3.215 million to 3.293 million [1][2] - Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 index to continue its upward trend in July and may start to decline in the next month [2] - Hedge funds' net buying of bank stocks last week reached the highest level in nearly a decade, supported by expectations of banking regulatory relaxation and Fed rate cuts [2] - Morgan Stanley reported that the US tariff revenue in June reached an annualized 327 billion US dollars, equivalent to 1.1% of the US GDP [2] - The US Senate passed the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by a narrow margin of one vote [2] Market Logic - The main stock indices in the two markets showed divergent trends on Wednesday. The central financial commission is promoting the construction of a unified national market and regulating disorderly low - price competition among enterprises, highlighting the capital market's role in promoting consumption [1][2] Future Outlook - The domestic supply - demand imbalance in the photovoltaic glass market will improve as domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to cut production by 30% starting from July [2] - Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by 25 basis points each in September, October, and December this year, and has lowered its terminal interest rate forecast [2] - Morgan Stanley said that technology giants hope to expand AI tools to the physical world through open - source, and China may take the lead in the "robot race" [2] - The global financial asset re - allocation trend of "de - Americanization" is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares [2] - The central financial commission's efforts to promote the unified national market and regulate disorderly competition are expected to boost listed companies' performance, and the market is expected to evolve into an upward - trending market [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts, as growth - based indices have higher elasticity [2] - For stock index option trading, buy out - of - the - money long - term index call options as the market is expected to evolve into an upward - trending market [2]

研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 03 日星期四 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货：隔夜夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截止夜盘收盘2509合约跌幅0.25%，收 | | | | | 于2363元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日南北港口价格稳定。鲅鱼圈（容重680-730/15% | | | | | 水）收购价2320-2340元/吨，较前一日稳定；锦州港（15%水/容重680-720）收购价 | | | | | 2320-2340元/吨，较前一日稳定；蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2470元/吨，较前一日稳定 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日 ...