早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郑棉总成交 | 334671 | 持仓 | 1046048。结算价 | 5 | 月 | 14615，9 | 月 | 14730，1 | 月 | 15130。 | ICE3 | 月合约结算价 | 61.61 | 涨 | 55 | 点，5 | 月 | 63.76 | 涨 | 72 | 点，7 | 月 | 65.45 | 涨 | 62 | 点；成 | ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 10 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 属市场暴跌。交易员将沃什视为最终候选人中最坚定的通胀抗击者，这提高了对美 元构成支撑、削弱以美元计价黄金的货币政策预期。我们认为美国总统提名美联储 前理事沃什担任美联储主席仅仅是导火索，重要的是市场之前的连续大涨积累了大 量的获利盘，市场变得十分拥挤，而导火索则引发了获利回吐，并发生连锁反应， 引起了市场的踩踏。美国 12 月 JOLTs 职位空缺录得 654.2 万人，为 2020 年 9 月以 来新低。密歇根大学消费者信心调查：美国 1 年期通胀预期从 4%降至 13 个月低点 3.5%。美国的最新就业和通胀预期数据有利于推动降息。2 月 9 日美元指数收跌 0.78%，报 96.85。伊朗地缘风险持续发酵。2 月 9 日 COMEX 黄金在 5000 美元/盎司 上方窄幅波动、小幅上涨，COMEX 白银涨幅较大收盘站上 83 美元/盎司。金银暂时 未形成新的趋势方向。作为春节假期安排，上期所宣布自 2026 年 2 月 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘多数低开，早盘小幅冲高后回落，午后窄幅震荡临近收 盘有所拉升，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.14%，10 年期 T2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.06%，5 年期 TF2603 上涨 0.08%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.04%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 1130 亿元亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 750 亿元 | | | | | 逆回购到期，当日合计净回笼 380 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周一银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日持平，DR001 全天加权平 | | | | | 均为 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 53 元至 6016 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 6035 元/吨（环比-15），山东地区现货价格 6066 元/吨（环比-73）。持仓方面， 多头减少 654 手至 1.8 万手，空头减少 1934 手至 1.85 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 纯苯 | 震荡 | 1、供应方面，1 月国内纯苯产量 191.5 万吨，同比-0.8%。12 月纯苯进口量 53.7 万吨，环比+16.8%。 2、库存方面，2026 年 2 月 9 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：29.7 万吨，较 上期库存 29.6 万吨累库 0.1 万吨，环比增加 0.34%；较去年同期库存 16.8 万吨累 库 12.9 万吨，同比上升 76.79%。2 月 2 日-2 月 8 日，不完全统计到货 2.6 吨，提 货约 2.5 万吨。周期内，所统计库区中， ...

联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 10 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 20 元至 6146 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6245 元/吨 （+10），华南瓶片价格 6275 元/吨（+25）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 5882 手至 6.81 万手，空头持仓减少 5988 手至 7.1 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 30.3 万吨，环比+0.38 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.4%，环比+0.8%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5662 元， 环比-151 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-26 元/吨，环比+22 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The period 2025 - 2026 marks the end of "American exceptionalism" and the start of "global rebalancing," with international stocks, Chinese consumer stocks, and emerging - market commodity producers as potential winners [1] - US stocks face ongoing selling pressure, and market volatility is likely to increase due to factors such as CTA strategy reduction, liquidity depletion, and negative gamma effects [1] - The world is on the verge of a "capital war" due to geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility, and investors should note capital control risks [2] - The Fed's policy uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend from July to November 2026 [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [3] - The Fed's monetary policy is about to make a major shift, creating a strong expectation of liquidity contraction for equity - related assets [3] - The global economy started to decline after reaching its peak in late 2025 due to consecutive wrong US policies [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Financial Market - High - profile figures' warnings: - BofA's chief investment strategist believes the new cycle will see non - US assets as winners [1] - Bridgewater's founder warns of a "capital war" and capital control risks in the US [2] - Goldman Sachs warns of ongoing selling pressure on US stocks, with potential sell - offs of about $33 billion if the market weakens and $8.7 billion if it rises [1] - Policy and geopolitical impacts: - The expected policy of Fed nominee Wash will have a negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - US geopolitical actions bring great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - The Fed's uncertainty may lead to a "flight from US assets" trend from July to November 2026 [2] - Market trends and asset performance: - In early February, US momentum stocks suffered a major sell - off, and investors shifted to value and traditional defensive stocks [2] - Nasdaq futures' rebound after breaking through the half - year line is a technical pullback, and a new round of tech - stock selling may occur [3] - The decline of US stocks may negatively impact US consumption [3] - The global economy started to decline after reaching its peak in late 2025 [3] Other News - SpaceX is recruiting engineers to develop AI satellites and space data centers, and Musk mentioned a large - scale return to the moon [1] - Japan's political situation leads to expectations of fiscal stimulus, pushing up stock index futures and weakening the yen and Japanese bonds [1] - Base metals are expected to rebound before gold in the second quarter [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. stock market is facing a significant downward shock, and investors should be cautious of the spill - over risk of the U.S. stock market during the long holiday. Global risk preference has shifted, and it is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures and reduce positions in equity assets before the holiday [1][64]. Summary by Related Catalogues U.S. Stock Market - The expectation of the balance - sheet reduction policy of the incoming Fed Chairman Wash has severely hit the silver market and changed the market risk preference, leading to an upward movement of the U.S. dollar index [3][5]. - The Nasdaq is on shaky ground, with retail trading dominating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new high is a result of the rotation of funds in the U.S. stock market, which is a dangerous signal for technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq [8][11]. - The S&P software index has been severely hit due to the acceleration of AI substitution, and $400 billion in private equity credit funds are in trouble. Amazon's 2026 capital expenditure guidance has increased to $200 billion, but the market has responded negatively [13][16]. - Due to power constraints, the growth of U.S. computing power may slow down significantly, and AI progress will hit a ceiling. Microsoft in MAGA7 has tumbled into a technical bear market due to AI's impact on the software industry and power constraints on capital expenditure [18][21]. - The Nasdaq has fallen below the six - month moving average, and the rebound on Friday was a technical pullback. A downward shock in the U.S. stock market is imminent [24]. Japanese Market - After the victory of the Japanese high - level government in the House of Representatives election, Japanese government bonds will face a new round of selling pressure, and Japanese bond yields are expected to continue to soar. A new round of yen depreciation may be inevitable. If the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, yen carry - trade funds will flow back rapidly, impacting the global equity and bond markets [26][28]. Chinese Market - The Hang Seng Technology Index has broken through its support level. The CSI 500 Index has shown a phased top and entered an adjustment period. The CSI 300 Index has broken through its support level, with a locked - in area of 1 trillion yuan in ETFs above, forming a significant resistance level [31][34][36]. - The margin trading balance has entered a de - leveraging phase [39]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, and the real interest rate has been negative continuously, with a month - on - month growth of 0.2%. The month - on - month increase in the industrial producer purchase price index in December was 0.4%, indicating that the Chinese economy is moving towards re - inflation [42][45]. - China's export value in December reached a record high of $357.7 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%, showing resilience in exports [47]. - In December, the month - on - month value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.87 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 10.5%, indicating a stall in manufacturing investment. The month - on - month value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 15.9%, reflecting the financial difficulties of local governments. The year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment in December was - 36.8%, hitting a new low [50][53][56]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in December was 4.51 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.9%. In the context of a downward export outlook and a stall in investment, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth, but the year - on - year growth rate in December hit a new low [59]. - The acceleration of the RMB's appreciation is conducive to the continuous inflow of international capital into China [62].

2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周五焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1138.5 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 2.86%；焦炭主力合 约 J2605 收于 1698.5 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 2.27%。周五夜盘，焦煤主力合约收于 | | | | | 1130.5 元/吨，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.70%，焦炭主力合约收于 1683.0 元/吨，环比日盘 | | | | | 收盘下跌 0.91%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、上周，247 家钢厂高炉开工率 79.53%，环比增加 0.53 个百分点，同比增加 1.55 个 | | | | | 百分点；日均铁水产量 228.58 万吨，环比增加 0.60 万吨，同比增加 0.14 万吨。 | | | 焦煤、 | | 2、河北 6 市启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。石家庄、唐山、保定、廊坊 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周五螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收跌。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、中机联：预计 2026 年机械工业主要指标增速在 5.5%左右。 | | | | 2、1 月份全球制造业采购经理指数为 51%，较上月上升 1.5 个百分点。 | | | | 3、中国工程机械工业协会：2026 年 1 月我国挖掘机开工率为 48.6%。 | | 黑色建材 钢材 | 震荡 | 4、河北 6 市启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。石家庄、唐山、保定、廊坊、衡水、 | | | | 沧州于 2 月 8 日启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。 | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | 本期钢材供需双降，临近假期，下游需求逐渐减少，市场基本处于半停滞状态。库 | | | | 存继续增加，冬储力度偏弱，冬储价格 3050-3150 元，后结算模式，市场 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 工 | 甲醇 | 震荡 | 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘主力合约 2605 期货 ...