Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹、热卷上涨。夜盘继续冲高。 【重要资讯】 1、1-6 月，规上工业原煤产量 24.0 亿吨，同比增长 5.4%。 2、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 6 月中国空调产量 2838.3 万台，同比增长 3.0%。 1-6 月累计产量 16329.6 万台，同比增长 5.5%。6 月全国冰箱产量 904.7 万台，同 | | | | | 比增长 4.8%；1-6 月累计产量 5064.2 万台，同比持平。6 月全国洗衣机产量 950.8 | | | | | 万台，同比增长 16.5%；1-6 月累计产量 5860.4 万台，同比增长 10.3%。6 月全国 | | | | | 彩电产量 1625.2 万台，同比下降 11.1%；1-6 月累计产量 9187.1 万台，同比下降 | | | | | 5.5 ...

Group 1 - The report is from Green Grand Futures Research Institute, dated July 18, 2025 [1] - The researcher is Ji Xiaoyun with qualification F3066027 and trading consultation qualification Z0011402, contact number 010 - 56711796 [1]

联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格上涨 70 元至 5964 元/吨。持仓方面，主 力合约 2509 持仓量为 3.69 万手，持仓-922 手。现货市场，华东市场水瓶级瓶片价 格稳上涨 10 元至 5935 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格上涨 10 元在 6010 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.7 万吨，较上周减少 2.72 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 71.5%，较上周下降 5.9%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5671 元，下降 0.9%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-214 元/吨，环比增加 86 元/吨。 | | 能源与化 工 | 瓶片 | 震 荡 偏 强 至 | 2、需求方面，2025 年 5 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 61.9 万吨，较上月增加 3.82 万吨。 2025 年累计出口量 269.55 万吨。 3、市场对中东局势的不稳定性仍有担忧，叠加美国传统燃油旺季延续，国际油价上 涨。 ...

币场快讯 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整: 假记载、误导性欲述重大遗漏。 藏格矿业股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")全资子公司格尔木藏格 展公司(以下简称"藏格押肥")于2025年7月16日收到海西州自然资源局、 西州盐湖管理局下发的《关于责令立即停止锂资源开发利用活动的通知》(西自 然资(2025)(以下简称《通知》),现将有关事项公告如下: 一、《通知》主要内容 《通知》要求严格依照国家法律法规,切实履行企业主体责任,立即停止违 规开采行为并积极整改,完善理资源合法手续,待锂资源手续合法合规后,向海 西州盐湖管理局申请复产,经申请通过后方可复产。 二、公司已采取的措施 收到《通知》后,公司全资子公司格尔木藏格理业有限公司(以下简称"藏 格锂业")己按要求停产;同时,公司正积极推进锂资源开采手续办理,待倒资 源开采手续办理完成后,将及时向涛西州盐湖管理局申请复产。 三、对公司的影响 -- 藏格锂业因缺少锂资源开采手续被责令立即停止锂资源开发,碳酸锂期货大涨 ti通知》 碳酸锂 2025年7月17日 7月15日,中国商务部发布新版《中国禁止出口限制出口技术目录》新增对电池技 术及锂矿提 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 14 元/吨至 2362 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 货价格下跌 3 元/吨至 2382 元/吨。多头持仓减少 9621 手至 36.86 万手，空头持仓 减少 823 手至 46.51 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 84.7%，环比下跌 3.8%。海外甲醇开工率 71.13%， 环比上涨 7.1%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 79.02 万吨，较上一期数据增加 7.13 万吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 6.35 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 0.78 万吨。 | | | | | 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 35.23 万吨，较上期减少 0.46 万吨，环比跌 1.28%。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 6.3 万吨，环比增加 2.6 万吨。样本企业订单待发 ...

研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货：昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡走弱，截止夜盘收盘2509合约跌幅0.61%，收 | | | | | 于2280元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、昨日现货市场弱稳为主。中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日锦州港收购价（15%水/ | | | | | 容重680-720）2310-2320元/吨，较前一日跌10元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2440元/ | | | | | 吨，较前一日持平。东北深加工企业主流收购价2243元/吨，较前一日跌7元/吨；华 | | | | | 北地区深加工企业昨日主流收购价2449元/吨， 较前一日跌2元/吨。 | | | | | 2、截至7月16日，玉米期货仓单减少390手，共计185421手。 | | | | | 3、WIND数据显示，截至7月16日山东地区小麦-玉米价差为50元/吨，较前一 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格下跌 6 元至 5876 元/吨。持仓方面，主力 合约 2509 持仓量为 3.86 万手，持仓+155 手。货市场，华东市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳 定在 5925 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳定在 6000 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 32.7 万吨，较上周减少 2.72 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 71.5%，较上周下降 5.9%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5671 元，下降 0.9%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-214 元/吨，环比增加 86 元/吨。 | | 能源与化 工 | 瓶片 | 震 荡 偏 弱 货 跌 | 2、需求方面，2025 年 5 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 61.9 万吨，较上月增加 3.82 万吨。 2025 年累计出口量 269.55 万吨。 3、虽然美国商业原油库存下降，但成品油库存增长引发夏季需求减弱担忧，国际油 价下跌。NYMEX 原油期货 08 合约 66.38 跌 0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend going long on all four stock index futures contracts (IH, IF, IM, IC) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to evolve into a trend - rising market. With the recovery of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points, it is recommended to go long on stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main indices of the two markets fluctuated widely, falling first and then rising, with growth - style indices being strong. The total turnover of the two markets was 1.44 trillion yuan, showing a contraction in volume. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6462 points, up 19 points or 0.30%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6017 points, down 1 point or - 0.03%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2740 points, down 6 points or - 0.23%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 4007 points, down 11 points or - 0.30%. Among industry and theme ETFs, auto parts, film and television, robotics, traditional Chinese medicine, and biovaccine ETFs led the gains, while steel, semiconductor materials, and software ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices, chemical pharmaceuticals, film and television theaters, reducers, home appliance parts, and auto services led the gains, while components, games, energy metals, lithium extraction from salt lakes, and small and medium - sized bank indices led the losses. The settled funds of stock index futures for CSI 1000, SSE 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 had net outflows of 53, 34, 22, and 12 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The Central Urban Work Conference deployed 7 key tasks, including optimizing the modern urban system, building innovative, livable, green, resilient, and smart cities [1] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun said that Chinese AI models are "world - class", and AI is changing every industry, with China's open - source AI being a catalyst for global progress [1] - Great Wall Securities believes that the humanoid robot industry is expanding rapidly, with many domestic and foreign manufacturers launching mass - produced products, and the commercialization process is expected to accelerate further [1] - Zuckerberg announced that Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers, indicating confidence in medium - term revenue growth and a strong signal that the AI capital expenditure cycle is far from over [1] - A survey by Bank of America's fund managers shows that global risk appetite has grown at the fastest rate since 2001, with funds flowing into US, European stocks, and the technology sector at a record pace, and cash allocation dropping below the 3.9% warning line, suggesting a possible market adjustment [1] - The South Korean government is considering "strategic concessions" on some agricultural product import restrictions to gain more room for a broader trade agreement with the US, which has triggered a strong backlash from farmers' groups [2] - France's 40 - billion - euro fiscal adjustment plan will focus on increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, but each aspect faces great resistance. With limited tax measures, the main part of the adjustment will come from spending cuts. The yield of France's 30 - year bonds has risen to 4.2140%, the highest since 2011 [2] - The US CPI in June failed to ease tariff concerns, leading investors to reduce their expectations of an interest rate cut in September, and a sell - off of long - term US bonds. A large amount of funds flowed into the options market, betting that the yield of 30 - year US bonds will jump to 5.3% in about five weeks [2] - JPMorgan Chase warned that as tariff pressure spreads to a wider range of commodities, price pressure will intensify in the coming months, and the Fed may remain on hold [2] - Trump said that pharmaceutical tariffs may be introduced "by the end of the month", and the timeline for introducing chip tariffs is similar to that of pharmaceutical tariffs [2] Market Logic - On Wednesday, the main indices of the two markets fluctuated widely, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3500 - point mark. Citi believes that China's exports in June showed resilience, and imports had their first year - on - year positive growth this year, reflecting improved domestic demand and potentially supporting stable economic growth. Great Wall Securities believes that the commercialization process of the humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate [1][2] Future Market Outlook - The main indices of the two markets fluctuated widely on Wednesday, and the Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3500 - point mark. In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year and 0.50% month - on - month. The global reallocation of financial assets is moving away from the US, which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The anti - involution trend is expected to boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trend - rising market. With the recovery of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points, the wealth effect of the stock market is emerging, and the inflow of funds is expected to accelerate in the future [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, it is recommended to go long on the four major stock index futures contracts as the market is expected to evolve into a capital - driven upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3500 - point mark. For stock index option trading, as the market is expected to evolve into a trend - rising market, it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [2]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美银的基金经理调查显示，全球风险偏好出现了 2001 年以来最快的增长速度， | | | | | 资金正创纪录涌入美股、欧股和科技板块，现金配置降至 3.9%的警戒线以下。市场 | | | | | 贪婪氛围浓厚，该指标再次发出预警，暗示市场或面临调整。 | | | | | 2、美国 6 月 CPI 未能平息关税担忧，投资者削减 9 月降息预期，美国长债遭抛售 | | | | | 潮。有大量资金涌入期权市场，押注 30 年期美债收益率将在约五周内跳升至 5.3%。 | | | | | 3、摩根大通预警，随着关税压力向更广泛商品类别扩散，价格压力将在未来几个 | | | | | 月进一步加剧。美联储或将继续按兵不动，静待通胀与就业前景的进一步明朗 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 'year-on-year growth' of the current data has limited practical significance, and the market should focus on the relative strength between the current supply increase and the increase already reflected in the futures market [7]. - The current pig price is in the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases, and active/passive capacity reduction has not yet started [10]. - The most likely way to reduce capacity this year is passive capacity reduction driven by diseases, but large - cycle market trends still await active capacity reduction driven by low prices [12]. - The main trading logic of live - hog futures this year is the bearish logic of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectations are basically fulfilled, it trades the basis repair logic under different drivers [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 'Year - on - Year Growth' Effective Significance Is Insufficient - Due to capacity adjustments in 2023 - 2024, the year - on - year growth in 2025 supply was expected and already reflected in the futures market. Comparing 2025 data with 2023 shows that although the number of live - hogs in the first quarter of 2025 was higher than in 2024 but lower than in 2023, the increase in pork output was due to higher slaughter weights [7][8]. - Comparing the first half of 2025 with the same period in 2024 and 2023, the decline in the number of live - hog inventories in the second quarter of 2025 narrowed compared to 2023, and the year - on - year growth rate of live - hog slaughter in the first half of the year increased compared to the first quarter, indicating a continuous recovery in inventory. However, the contribution of weight to pork output in the second quarter weakened compared to the first quarter, and overall supply pressure still exists [8][9]. 3.2 Pig Capacity Cycle Issues and Thoughts 3.2.1 Current Stage of the Pig Capacity Cycle - As of the end of the second quarter, the number of breeding sows increased quarter - on - quarter. The current pig price is in the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases, and active/passive capacity reduction has not yet started [10]. 3.2.2 How to Achieve Capacity Reduction - There are three ways to reduce capacity: active capacity reduction driven by low prices (currently ineffective as pigs and piglets are profitable); passive capacity reduction caused by diseases (need to pay attention to winter disease prevention at the end of the year); and forced capacity reduction driven by environmental protection policies (the most likely way currently, which will promote large - scale development) [11]. 3.2.3 Main Trading Logic of Live - Hog Futures - The main trading logic this year is the bearish logic of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectations are fulfilled, it trades the basis repair logic. In the long - term, maintain a short - selling strategy unless the number of newborn piglets decreases; in the medium - term, it may operate in a wide range around the expected support and pressure of spot pig prices; in the short - term, it is trading the repair of the futures discount driven by the weight - reduction expectation [13].