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格林大华期货早盘提示-20251017
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 23:46
早盘提示 | 资金买入热情不减,10 月 9 日以来黄金主题 ETF 净流入逾百亿元。 | | --- | | 7、美联储褐皮书显示,劳动力市场方面,就业水平总体保持稳定。不过多数地区 | | 报告称,更多雇主通过裁员或自然减员减少员工数量,原因包括需求疲软、经济不 | | 确定性持续,以及对人工智能的投资增加。 | | 8、近期与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)挂钩的期权交易显示,交易员正加码押注美 | | 联储在本月晚些时候或 12 月的会议上至少实施一次 50 基点的降息。这超出了利率 | | 互换市场当前定价的两次 25 个基点的降息幅度。 | | 9、美联储常备回购便利工具(SRF)突然被动用 67.5 亿美元,为疫情以来非季末 | | 最高水平,市场资金缺口迅速暴露。SOFR 利差抬升叠加财政发债压力回流市场,引 | | 发对下一轮流动性危机的担忧。 | | 【市场逻辑】 | | 周四两市价值周期指数整理,成长类指数调整。10 月 10 日,权益类 ETF 净申购额 | | 合计达到 314.88 亿元。从今年以来权益类 ETF 的单日净申购额看,仅次于 4 月 7 | | 日、8 日。10 月 1 ...
格林大华期货研究院专题报告:深入东北主产区看‘新季玉米上市季’产业全景
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:21
期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 农林畜 2025年10月16日 农林畜研究员:张晓君 题目 深入东北主产区看'新季玉米上市季' 产业全景 目录 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间:2025年10月16日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 从业资格证号:F0242716 交易咨询证号:Z0011864 联系方式: 0371-65617380 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格: 一、新陈交替之际 产业聚焦新季玉米 二、玉米市场现状与展望 三、企业参与玉米期货及衍生品情况 四、玉米期货观点及操作建议 期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 正文: 一、新陈交替之际 产业聚焦新季玉米 进入9月下旬,国内玉米主产区新季玉米陆续收获上市,玉米市场进入新陈 交替阶段。当前,主产区新作玉米定产情况、基层售粮情绪及下游建库节奏等成 为近期市场关注焦点;亦是新陈玉米价格如何对接的关键驱动因素。 在此业内瞩目的重要时间节点,笔者在大商所的带领下,历时5天,走访了 黑龙江区域玉米市场上、中、下游全产业链,包括玉米种植户/农场、贸易商、 深加工企业以及交割库等,总计13家相关企业。深入了解了东北地区新季玉米整 体 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-20251016
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 23:30
早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员: 于军礼 从业资格: F0247894 交易咨询资格:Z0000112 联系方式:yujunli@greendh.com 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 16 日 星期四 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美联储主席鲍威尔暗示,美国的劳动力市场持续恶化,尽管政府关门影响了 | | | | | 对经济的判断,仍保留了本月降息的可能性。他还透露,美联储可能会在未来 | | | | | 几个月内停止缩减资产负债表行动。 | | | | | 2、周三早上,人民币中间价升至 7.10 元下方,为去年 11 月来首次。人民币兑美 | | | | | 元中间价报 7.0995,上调 26 点;上一交易日中间价 7.1021,上一交易日官方收盘 | | | | 价 | 7.1411。随后,离岸人民币直线拉升。 | | | | | 3、美国银行上调了对黄金和白银的价格 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-20251015
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 23:30
早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、摩根大通宣布启动十年 1.5 万亿美元"安全与韧性倡议",将在供应链制造、国 | | | | | 防航空、能源技术、前沿科技等四大领域的 27 个细分技术投资最多 100 亿美元。 | | | | | 用于对特定美国公司的直接股权投资和风险投资,以帮助它们扩大规模、加速创新。 | | | | | 2、瑞银在最新发布的报告中指出,如果 MSCI 中国指数跌至 74 水平,将获得强劲 | | | | | 支撑,投资者可能逢低买入。站在当前时点,多家外资机构认为,A 股近期估值合 | | | | | 理偏低,无论是建立全球多元化配置,还是对冲美元资产风险,对外资均有吸引力。 | | | | | 3、OpenAI 与博通宣布达成战略合作,将共同推出总容量达 10GW 的定制芯片。 | | | | | OpenAI 将负责芯片设计,博通则从 2026 年下半年开始进行芯片开发与部署。这项 | | | | | 合作是科技 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:棉花-20251014
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 03:20
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bearish [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Affected by the external environment, ICE cotton futures closed lower, with the main 12 - month contract settling at 63.59 cents, a decline of 0.39%. The purchase price of seed cotton remains cautious, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan per kilogram. Downstream textile enterprises maintain normal operation, but the orders in the peak season are insufficient. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillating and bottom - building [1] 3) Summary by Related Content [Market Review] - ICE December contract settled at 63.59, down 25 points; March at 65.26, down 34 points; May at 66.56, down 33 points, with about 44,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 424,737 contracts, with an open interest of 839,493 contracts. The settlement prices of January, May, and September contracts were 13,285 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton), 13,325 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), and 13,510 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton) respectively compared to the previous day [1] [Important Information] - On October 11, in Kashgar, Xinjiang, the basis of hand - picked new cotton of Double 29 quality with less than 1.7% impurity for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was around 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,500 - 14,550 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous day [1] - According to US Department of Commerce data, in August 2025, US retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories (seasonally adjusted) were $27.183 billion, an 8.27% year - on - year increase (the adjusted figure in the same period last year was $25.106 billion) and a 1.02% month - on - month increase (last month was $26.908 billion) [1] - The warm and dry weather in the southwestern and south - central cotton regions of the US promotes harvesting, while thunderstorms in the southeastern cotton region pose a threat to the quality of boll opening [1] - As of September 25, according to local Brazilian industry institutions, the cotton picking progress in Brazil was about 99.7%, and the processing progress was 46% [1] - On October 11, the spot price of cotton yarn was stable. According to feedback from inland textile enterprises, new orders are generally sluggish in October, and there is always downward pressure on cotton yarn prices. Enterprises have difficulty making profits, so the cotton consumption is in a state of contraction [1] [Market Logic] - Due to external environmental impacts, ICE US cotton futures closed lower. The purchase price of seed cotton is cautious, and although downstream textile enterprises maintain normal operation, the peak - season orders are insufficient, resulting in Zhengzhou cotton oscillating and building a bottom [1] [Trading Strategy] - Hold the previous at - the - money straddle options of the 01 contract [1]
格林大华期货早盘提示:苹果-20251014
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 02:53
早盘提示 研究员:王子健 从业资格:F03087965 交易咨询资格:Z0019551 联系方式:17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 苹果期价回调,主力合约移仓换月,2601 合约收盘价 838 元/吨,收跌 1.21%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 山东:库存纸袋晚富士 80#价格在 3.80-4.00 元/斤(片红,一二级);纸袋晚富士 | | | | | 80#以上价格3.00-3.50元/斤(片红,统货),纸袋晚富士80#以上三级价格2.50-2.80 | | | | | 元/斤,库存条纹 80#一二级价格 4.10-4.50 元/斤。 | | | | | 陕西;纸袋晚富士 70#起步半商品价格在 4.70-4.80 元/斤。渭南产区冷库剩余少量 | | | | | 客商货源,多自提出货为主,调货采购不多,行情稳定。当前晚富士 75#起步统货 | | | | | 价格在 4.00 元/斤左右。 | | | | | 甘肃:目前仁大镇库存晚 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:原木-20251014
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 02:52
Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 14 日星期二 研究员:王子健 从业资格:F03087965 交易咨询资格:Z0019551 联系方式:17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 原木期价回调,主力 2511 合约收盘价 803.0 元/立方米,收跌 2.19%。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1、山东 3.9 米中 A 辐射松原木现货价格为 750 元/方,较昨日持平,较上周上跌 10 元/方;江苏 4 米中 A 辐射松原木现货价格为 780 元/方,较昨日持平,较上周下跌 10 元/方。 2、截至 8 月 15 日,国内针叶原木当周到港量 33.9 万方,较上周减少 16.65 万方 | | | | | 3、中国 7 省 13 港针叶原木日均出库量为 6.33 万立方米,较上周降 0.09 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | 农林畜 | 原木 | 偏多 | 近期国 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:贵金属-20251014
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 01:50
联系方式:liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 14 日星期二 | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料,格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证,也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正,但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价,投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关,格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失,敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发,须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 品种 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | | COMEX | 黄金期货收涨 3.24%,报 4130 美元/盎司;COMEX 白银期货收涨 7.47%,报 50.775 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 2 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:国债-20251014
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 01:49
格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 14 日星期二 研究员: 刘洋 从业资格: F3063825 交易咨询资格:Z0016580 联系方式:liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开,早盘横向波动,午后略有回落,截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2512 上涨 0.37%,10 年期 T2512 上涨 0.10%,5 年期 TF2512 | | | | | 上涨 0.03%,2 年期 TS2512 上涨 0.02%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场:周一央行开展了 1378 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作,当日无逆回购到期, | | | | | 当日实现净回笼 1378 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场:周一银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日持平,DR001 全天加权平 | | | | | 均为 1.31%,上一交易日加权平均 1.31%;DR007 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-20251014
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 23:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is "flat" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a complex global economic and financial situation, with various factors influencing different markets. The U.S. economic data shows a "schizophrenic" state, and the global economic order is facing challenges. Meanwhile, China's economic indicators are positive, and the AI competition between China and the U.S. has changed the situation [1][2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Important Information - After U.S. President Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China on the 12th, U.S. stock index futures rose [1] - The spread between the near - month New York silver futures contract and the London silver spot reached $2.73 per ounce, a multi - year high. The one - month implied lease rate of London silver spot has risen to 40.3%, and the free - floating volume in the London silver market has dropped by 75% compared to the 2019 high [1] - The core driving force of the gold price is the market's expectation of the "order reconstruction" of the global political and economic situation, and its upward trend may not end [1] - Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that the rapid growth of U.S. government debt and intensifying internal and external conflicts are creating a situation "very similar" to that before World War II [1] - U.S. consumer spending and AI capital expenditure are strong, with third - quarter consumer spending growing nearly 3%, but the employment market has slowed down and the unemployment rate has risen, which poses challenges to asset pricing [1] - The era when the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is above 4% is coming to an end [1] - The U.S. stock bull market that started in October 2022 has reached its third anniversary, with the S&P 500 index rising 83% and its market value increasing by $28 trillion. The current valuation is at a record - high price - to - earnings ratio of 25 times [1] - The Houthi rebels said they would stop attacking Israeli and Israel - related ships in the Red Sea if Israel complies with the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip [1] - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for Alibaba's capital expenditure in the next three years to 460 billion yuan, believing that AI capital expenditure transformation is reshaping Alibaba's growth expectations [1][2] Global Economic Logic - China's September exports were $328.5 billion, with an 8.3% year - on - year increase, and imports had a 7.4% year - on - year increase, reaching a six - month high for exports and a 17 - month high for imports [2] - China's control of rare earths is a firm response to the U.S. restrictions on mature - process semiconductor equipment and materials. Interrupting the U.S. AI chip production may lead to a catastrophic decline in U.S. stocks [2] - According to the HSBC emerging markets survey, China is the preferred stock investment market. International capital is actively increasing its positions in China's technology sector [2] - Huawei's Ascend chips are leading NVIDIA in computing power. Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [2] - Due to the U.S.'s continuous wrong policies, the global economy is entering the top - region [2]