早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 09 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ICE3 月合约结算价 61.06 跌 70 点，5 月 63.04 跌 46 点，7 月 64.83 跌 43 点；成 | | | | | 交约 12.1 万手。 | | | | | 郑棉总成交 356519 持仓 1036886。结算价 5 月 14590，9 月 14720，1 月 15125。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1月 29日南疆巴州区域纺企采购 31级双 29含杂 2.7%以内机采新棉疆内库 2605 | | | | | 合约基差成交价 1150-1250 元/吨，提货价在 16050-16200 元/吨，较前一日上 ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | 红枣 | 震 荡 偏空 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8695 元/吨，日跌幅 0.74%。CJ609 合约收盘价 8920 元/吨， 日跌幅 0.56%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 11888 吨，较上周减少 1255 吨，环比减少 9.55%， 同比增加 12.84%，样本点库存环比下降。 2.昨日河北特级红枣批发价 9.20 元/公斤，日环比+0 元/公斤。 3.昨日广东如意坊市场到货车辆 0 车，日环比+0 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3350 张，日环比+0 张。 【市场逻辑】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | | | | | | | | 近期红枣期价保持震荡偏弱运行。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限，节 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货收涨 2.03%，报 4988.6 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货收涨 1.06%，报 77.525 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约收涨 2.82%，报 1115 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 3.51%，报 19840 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 2 月 6 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 1.72 吨， 当前持仓量为 1076.23 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.36 吨，当前持仓量为 16191.09 吨。 | | 有色与贵 | 贵金属 | 黄 金 震 荡 | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 19.9%，维持利 率不变的概率为 80.1%。 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 3 元至 1776 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1760 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 7675 手至 25.3 万手，空头持仓增加 7793 手至 26.6 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.11 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 1.63 万吨；今日开工率 89.66%，较去年同期 87.01%回升 2.65%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 91.85 万吨，较上周减少 2.63 万吨，环比减 少 2.79%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比持平。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 41.3% ...

| | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 6 日，大宗商品市场走势整体偏弱，植物油板块弱势振荡为主。 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8102 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.02%，日减仓 | | | | | 14549 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8054 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.10%，日增 | | | | | 仓 1551 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9026 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.18%，日减 | | | | | 仓 11261 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 8998 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.18%，日减仓 | | | | | 2111 手； | | | | | 菜籽油次主力合约 OI2605 合约报收于 9144 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - On Friday, iron ore prices declined both during the day and in the night session. Although iron ore inventory continued to rise and approached 180 million tons, the inventory pressure was expected to be acceptable and would not drive the price down. The rigid demand for iron ore was unlikely to increase as the change in molten iron production was minimal approaching the holiday. It is expected that the lower limit of 750 for the iron ore futures main contract before the holiday would still serve as strong support. Traders were advised to hold light positions or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - Iron ore prices declined on Friday and in the night session [1] Important Information - The China National Machinery Industry Federation predicted that the growth rate of the main indicators of the machinery industry in 2026 would be around 5.5% [1] - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in January 2026 was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The China Construction Machinery Association reported that the operating rate of excavators in China in January 2026 was 48.6% [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills across the country was 103.1664 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4805 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by the sampled steel mills was 282,240 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,290 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 36.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 days [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 179.1468 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5642 million tons; the total inventory at 45 ports was 171.4071 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1845 million tons [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.006 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0014 million tons [1] Market Logic - The current daily molten iron output was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.006 million tons. As the holiday approached, the change in molten iron production was minimal, so the rigid demand for iron ore was unlikely to increase. Iron ore inventory continued to rise and approached 180 million tons. After comprehensively analyzing the inventory structure, it was expected that the inventory pressure was acceptable and would not drive the price down [1] Trading Strategy - It was expected that the lower limit of 750 for the iron ore futures main contract before the holiday would still serve as strong support. Traders were advised to hold light positions or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1]

| | 3、仔猪数量来看，2025年1-9月新生仔猪数量环比持续增加（仅7月环比下降），对 | | --- | --- | | | 应今年3月前生猪出栏头数仍呈增加趋势；2025年10、11、12月新生仔猪连续3个月 | | | 环比下降，分别下降1%、0.8%、1.2%，对应今年4月起供给压力有所缓解。 | | | 4、体重来看，生猪出栏体重环比继续回落。截至2月5日生猪出栏均重为124.27公斤 | | | ，较前一周减少0.23公斤，环比降幅扩大。 | | | 5、肥标价差来看，2月6日生猪肥标价差为0.47元/斤，较前一日持平。 | | | 6、仓单数量来看，2月6日生猪期货仓单较前一日增减0手，共计647手。 | | | 7、2月6日农业农村部发布 "关于落实《中共中央国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 | | | 扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》的实施意见"，文件提及'强化生猪产能综合调控 | | | ，对头部生猪养殖企业实行年度生产备案管理，有序调控全国能繁母猪存栏量，促 | | | 进市场供需更加适配。 | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | 短期来看，本周进入春节前集中备货阶段，养殖端积极出栏，生猪市场 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 9 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格 6122 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6235 元/吨（+0），华南 瓶片价格 6250 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 973 手至 7.39 万手，空头持 仓减少 1425 手至 7.7 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 30.3 万吨，环比+0.38 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 65.4%，环比+0.8%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5662 元， 环比-151 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-26 元/吨，环比+22 元/吨。 2、2025 年 12 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 58.87 万吨，较上月增加 5. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures in the macro and finance sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day, with the 30-year variety showing stronger performance. The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5%. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom-bust line. The bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day. The 30-year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.42%, the 10-year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5-year TF2603 rose 0.03%, and the 2-year TS2603 rose 0.02%. The Wind All A index opened lower, rose in the morning session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing down 0.19% from the previous trading day, forming a small Yang line with an upper shadow, with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight contraction compared to the previous trading day's 2.19 trillion yuan [1][2] Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 31.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations. With 477.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 146 billion yuan. - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interbank funding market rate remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, and that of DR007 was 1.48%. - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of interbank government bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2-year government bond dropped 0.37 BP to 1.36%, the 5-year dropped 1.34 BP to 1.56%, the 10-year dropped 0.67 BP to 1.81%, and the 30-year dropped 2.00 BP to 2.25%. - US policy: The US President signed an executive order to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran, but no new tariffs have been added for now. The US and Iran held "very good talks," and the US will negotiate with Iran again next week. - US inflation expectation: The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5% [1] Market Logic - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line, with the new order index at 49.2%, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8%, and that of the service industry was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] Trading Strategy - Trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - 1 - month official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back below the boom - bust line, with a decline in manufacturing market demand; construction and service business activity indices were weak; the Ministry of Finance will maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure; the central bank governor said there is room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year; the Wande All - A Index was slightly weak this week, and capital interest rates fell compared to last week; treasury bond futures rose overall, and may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term [39] - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, most treasury bond futures main contracts showed a trend of hitting bottom and then rebounding. The 30 - year variety was strong. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.63% for the whole week, the 10 - year rose 0.12%, the 5 - year rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year rose 0.06% [5] - As of February 6, compared with January 30, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted downward overall, with the ultra - long end shifting down slightly more. The 2 - year yield dropped 2 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 2 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year remained flat at 1.81%, and the 30 - year dropped 4 BP to 2.25% [7] 3.2 January Manufacturing PMI Data - January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back in the contraction range, with large enterprises continuing to expand and medium - and small - sized enterprises' prosperity declining [10] - The production index was 50.6% and the new order index was 49.2%, indicating continued expansion in production but a decline in market demand. The procurement volume index was 48.7%, falling below the boom - bust line [13] - The new export order index was 47.8% and the import index was 47.3%. The new export order index declined compared to December [16] - The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, both expanding compared to the previous month. The average value of the South China Industrial Products Index rose 4.4% month - on - month and fell 4.75% year - on - year [18] - The raw material inventory index was 47.4% and the finished product inventory index was 48.6%. Inventory remained stable, and the profits of large - scale manufacturing enterprises increased in 2025 [21] - The manufacturing employment index was 48.1%, with little change in the employment prosperity level. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%, indicating a decline in future prosperity expectations [24] 3.3 January Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index Data - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%. The construction business activity index was 48.8%, and the service business activity index was 49.5%, falling below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month [27] - The construction new order index was 40.1%, the employment index was 41.1%, and the business activity expectation index was 49.8%, all showing a decline [30] - The service new order index was 47.1%, the employment index was 47.0%, and the business activity expectation index was 57.1%, slightly rising. The input price index was 49.7% and the sales price index was 48.9%. Financial and insurance industries were active, while the real estate industry was weak [33] 3.4 Capital Interest Rate and Market Operation - This week, capital interest rates fell compared to last week. DR001 dropped to 1.275%, DR007 dropped to 1.46%, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate dropped to 1.59%. On February 4, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase maturing on the same day [36]