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格林大华期货早盘提示:国债-20251010
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:38
联系方式:liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 研究员: 刘洋 从业资格: F3063825 交易咨询资格:Z0016580 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四国债期货主力合约开盘全线低开,早盘拉升一波后横向波动直至收盘,30 年期 品种走势较强,截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2512 上涨 0.46%,10 年期 T2512 上涨 0.15%,5 年期 TF2512 上涨 0.07%,2 年期 TS2512 上涨 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 1、公开市场:周四央行开展了 6120 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作,以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展 11000 亿元买断式逆回购操作,当日有 2063 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:焦煤、焦炭-20251010
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:36
Morning session notice 重要事项: 早盘提示 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料,格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证,也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正,但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价,投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关,格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失,敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发,须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 联系方式:010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1164.0,环比日盘开盘上涨 3.37%;焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1654.0,环比日盘开盘上涨 1.91%。夜盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:甲醇-20251010
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:36
Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 | 5 | 元至 | 2293 | 元/吨,华东主流地区甲醇现货价格下 | | | | | | | | | | 跌 | 29 | 元至 | 2213 | 元/吨。持仓方面,多头持仓增加 | 80184 | 手至 | 61.4 | 万手,多头持仓 | 增加 | 92365 | 手至 | 74.99 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面,国内甲醇开工率 | 82.5%,环比+2.6%。海外甲醇开工率 | 67.9%,环比-4.2%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面,中中国甲 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:铁矿-20251010
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:34
联系方式:010-56711796 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | 品种 | | | | | | 铁矿: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 节后首个交易日铁矿收涨。夜盘继续收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发布《关于治理价格无序竞争维护良好市场价 | | | | | 格秩序的公告》。《公告》指出,对价格无序竞争问题突出的重点行业,指导行业 | | | | | 协会等有关机构调研评估行业平均成本,为经营者合理定价提供参考。 | | | | | 2、本周,五大钢材品种供应 863.31 万吨,周环比降 3.76 万吨,降幅为 0.4%;总 | | | | 库存 | 1600.72 万吨,周环比增 127.86 万吨,增幅 8.7%;周消费量为 751.43 万吨, | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 其中建材消费环比降 32.8%,板材消费环比降 7.8%。 | | | | | 3、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯明确表态,支持在 2025 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示-20251010
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 00:27
早盘提示 联系方式:yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、Sam Altman 透露,OpenAI 未来几个月将有更多激进的基础设施押注,旨在应对 | | | | | 下一代 AI 模型催生的庞大需求。分析认为,这些交易以"交叉持股"模式为核心 | | | | | ——芯片巨头通过投资或股权承诺换取 OpenAI 订单,形成一种"AI 闭环经济"。 | | | | | 2、英伟达 CEO 表示:人工智能已经足够智能,人人都想使用它,我们现在正同时 | | | | | 经历两个指数级增长阶段。市场对 Blackwell 的需求确实非常、非常高,我认为我 | | | | | 们正处在新一轮基础设施建设、新一轮工业革命的起点。 | | | | | 3、xAI 正在筹集比最初计划更多的资金,其中包括来自英伟达的股权投资,使本轮 | | | | | 持续进行中的融资总额达到 200 亿美元。这笔融资将分为约 75 亿美元的股权融资 | | | | | 和最多 125 亿美 ...
市场快讯:假期蛋价超预期下跌,期货盘面大幅跳空低开
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 06:50
一假期蛋价超预期下跌 币场快讯- 期货盘面大幅跳空低开 长期来看,蛋鸡养殖规模持续提升或拉长价格底部周期,耐心等待养 殖端超淘驱动去产能进程的到来。 > 交易策略 节前持续提示大规模集中淘鸡发生前维持高空思路不变,且节前建议 前期空单可继续持有。 当前河北现货跌破2.5元/斤,今日早报提示今日开盘盘面或跳空低开, 前期空单可继续持有,建议逢低可考虑逐步止盈。 现货表现 假期期间鸡蛋市场供强需弱施压蛋价大幅走低。10月8日河北馆陶粉 蛋价格为2.49元/斤,较9月30日跌0.35元/斤。 > 期货表现 今日鸡蛋期货近月合约大幅跳空低开,2511合约开盘2890元/500ka. 跌幅4.24%,截至收稿盘面为2902元/500kg;远月合约表现相对平稳。 分析逻辑 中短期来看,阶段性供强需弱格局持续,蛋价承压走弱、局部区域跌 至饲料成本。重点关注低价驱动淘鸡力度和规模。 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 [2011] 1288号 从业资格:F0242716 交易咨询资格:Z0011864 联系甲话0371-65617380 息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确推及灵量性不作后倒保证,不保证报告信息已做最新变更 ...
EIA原油周度数据报告-20251009
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 06:49
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. oil production to reach a new high this year, exceeding previous expectations, and warns that an oil supply surplus in the coming months will put pressure on oil prices. The agency has also raised its global oil production forecast due to higher - than - expected non - OPEC oil production growth this year and next [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Data Inventory Data - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 827.246 million barrels, an increase of 4 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 420.261 million barrels, an increase of 3.715 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline inventory was 219.093 million barrels, a decrease of 1.6 million barrels from the previous week; distillate inventory was 121.559 million barrels, a decrease of 2.018 million barrels from the previous week [1][2] - Commercial crude oil inventory was 0.59% lower than the same period last year and 4% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory was 1.95% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the five - year average; distillate inventory was 2.57% higher than the same period last year and 6% lower than the five - year average [1] Other Operational Data - The U.S. refinery utilization rate was 92.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week, with a growth rate of 1.09% [2] - U.S. crude oil production was 13,629 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 124 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.92% [2] - U.S. crude oil imports were 6,403 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 570 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a growth rate of 9.77% [2] - U.S. crude oil exports were 3,590 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 161 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a decline rate of 4.29% [2]
市场快讯:印尼B50研发加快,棕榈油不建议追高
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 06:37
受到上述消息提振,国内植物油板块开盘高开高走、棕榈油领涨。但是国内目前大豆库存779万吨,五年新高,阿根廷零关 税大豆40船已在路上,油厂豆油146万吨,5年新高。棕榈油库存虽然偏低仅有52.4万吨,但是能保证刚性需求,菜籽油中加 贸易争端下,后续菜籽到港偏低,油厂菜籽油库存去化中,在三大油脂中基本面最强,抗跌性高。综合以上分析:棕榈油 和豆油不建议追高,上涨空间有限,菜籽油可逢低少量吸纳多单。 数据来源:文华财经,粮油商务网 研究员:刘锦 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询: Z0011862 联系电话13633849418 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288号 免责声明:本投合中的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的阵解俄及完整任不作任何紧证,不得证报告信息已收最新交更,也不保证分析师做出的担调建派会发生任何交更。在任何情况下,没告申的信息或所去达的意见于不够成场 赌博美郎出版视频价:在任何情况下,我公司不像提告申的任何交流的报告的孩故的坐探,没资者提拔改造、没取收留我承担。我公司可能发出与本报告意见不一致的单位拦,本报告见分析师本人的意见与党论,并 代表我公司的立场。未经我公司同意 ...
从经济四周期配置大类资产10月篇
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 06:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - AI generalization has entered a large-scale application period, leading to an exponential increase in computing power demand across various industries. The US is facing a power crisis, and China is likely to experience a power shortage in 1 - 2 years. China will win the Sino-US AI game, and the semiconductor equipment and energy storage industries will be highly prosperous. Silver is a commodity that benefits from both endless computing power and endless electricity. The stock market style is shifting, and the CSI 300 Index is well-balanced. Gold will soar due to the Fed's policy shift, and the demand for commodities will decline. The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Cycles - **Kitchin Cycle**: China's current Kitchin cycle is expected to reach its peak in Q4 2025, while the US will reach its peak in Q1 2026 [6]. - **Juglar Cycle**: China's Juglar cycle is currently in an upward phase and is expected to peak in early 2027 [7]. - **Kuznets Cycle**: China's current Kuznets cycle is expected to bottom out around 2030 [8]. - **Kondratieff Cycle**: The current Kondratieff depression started in 2020 due to the COVID-19 impact and is expected to end around 2030, followed by a 10-year recovery period. China is the center of this technological innovation cycle, with AI being the most significant innovation [9]. AI Computing Power Demand - The implementation of the "AI +" action indicates China's full transition to an AI economy. The demand for computing power is growing exponentially, with token usage expected to increase by about 30 times in a year, 900 times in two years, and 27,000 times in three years. Tech giants are making substantial investments in computing power infrastructure, and global AI data center and chip investment is expected to reach $2.9 trillion by 2028 [10][11][14]. Power Demand and Crisis - The exponential growth in computing power demand leads to an exponential increase in power demand, intensifying the Sino-US power competition. The US is facing a power crisis as its aging power grid struggles to meet the growing demand. China is likely to experience a power shortage in 1 - 2 years despite its efforts to expand new energy power generation [15][16][23]. Semiconductor Equipment Industry - Huawei's AI chip computing power supernodes lead the industry, indicating China's full autonomy in the chip industry chain. The surging demand for computing power will drive the semiconductor equipment industry to remain highly prosperous, and related ETFs are expected to perform well [24][25][28]. Energy Storage and Photovoltaic Industries - China's strong power construction mobilization ability ensures its victory in the Sino-US AI game. The energy storage industry is highly prosperous due to the increasing power demand, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to recover in 2026 [33][36]. Silver - Silver benefits from both endless computing power and endless electricity. The demand for silver is expected to surge, widening the supply-demand gap and leading to a shortage of physical silver [37]. Stock Market - The stock market style is shifting, and the CSI 300 Index is well-balanced with limited downside and significant upside potential. The CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices have reached new highs, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index and ChiNext Index are expected to continue rising. A large amount of domestic and foreign capital is flowing into the A-share market [44][46][47]. Gold - The Fed's policy shift towards full employment and tolerance of inflation, combined with the potential for negative real interest rates in the US, will drive gold prices higher [48][49]. Commodities - Due to the anti-involution in the mid - and downstream industries, the demand for upstream resource commodities is weakening. However, copper prices may strengthen temporarily, and lithium carbonate may enter a new bull market in H2 2026 [50][51][52]. Bonds - As the stock market rises, bond funds are facing large-scale redemptions, and the bond market is becoming a source of funds for the stock market. The real interest rate is trending towards negative values [52]. Foreign Exchange - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is likely to enter the 6 - level by the end of the year [53][55][56]. October Outlook for Major Asset Classes - **Equity Assets**: The stock market's wealth effect is attracting savings from the household sector, and overseas funds are flowing into Chinese assets. The semiconductor equipment index and battery index are expected to remain highly prosperous [3][56]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold will soar due to the Fed's policy shift, and silver may face severe supply shortages [3][56]. - **Commodities**: The demand for upstream resource commodities is weakening [3][56]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market is becoming a source of funds for the stock market as the real interest rate turns negative [3][56]. - **Foreign Exchange Assets**: The offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen and enter the 6 - level by the end of the year [3][56].
格林大华期货早盘提示:甲醇-20251009
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 05:19
Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价,投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关,格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失,敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发,须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员:吴志桥 从业资格:F3085283 交易咨询资格:Z0019267 联系方式:15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 9 月 30 日甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 28 元至 2328 元/吨,华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 11 元至 2242 元/吨。持仓方面,多头持仓增加 13925 手至 70.45 万手,空 头持仓减少 14382 手至 84.21 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面,国内甲醇开工率 82.5%,环比+2.6%。海外 ...