早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、美国零售联合会（NRF）发布数据，从感恩节到"网络星期一"的五天内，约有 | | | | | 2.029 亿美国消费者进行了购物。这不仅超出 NRF 此前预测的 1.869 亿人次，更是 | | | | | 打破了该组织自 2017 年开始追踪该数据以来的所有记录。 | | | | | 2、在美国期货市场上，与"有担保隔夜融资利率"（SOFR）挂钩的短端利率曲线 | | | | | 结构需求正在增加，该利率与市场对美联储政策利率的预期高度相关。这些押注反 | | | | | 映出一种可能性：美联储主席任期于明年 5 月结束后，货币政策宽松步伐可能加快。 | | | | | 3、英伟达 CFO 表示，多年来数据中心的计算负载大部分由 CPU 完成，而这些工作 | | | | | 正在 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌10元至5437元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5325 | | | | | 元/吨（环比-10），山东地区现货价格 5238 元/吨（环比+7）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓减少 177 手至 1.6 万手，空头持仓减少 466 至 1.91 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 | | | | | 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 | | | | | 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，2025 年 12 月 1 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：22.4 万吨， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a macro - policy vacuum period, but there may be expectations later. The fundamentals show that last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar closed flat and hot - rolled coils closed down. They also closed down at night [1] Important Information - In October 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22%. In October, China's stainless - steel imports were 124,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons or 3.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 34,100 tons or 21.56%. From January to October, the total stainless - steel imports were 1.2621 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 343,000 tons or 21.37%. In October, the domestic stainless - steel exports were 358,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,400 tons or 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 59,300 tons or 14.2%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 4.1408 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons or 0.04%. In October, China's stainless - steel apparent consumption was 3.0459 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons or 4.68% [1] - Chinalco Group: The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent, carrying 200,000 tons of iron ore [1] - On December 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,320 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 29 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton [1] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in November, the national passenger car market retail sales were 2.263 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the new - energy market retail sales were 1.354 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the new - energy market retail penetration rate was 59.8% [1] Market Logic - In the macro - policy vacuum period, there may be expectations later. Fundamentally, last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak [1] Trading Strategy - The upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations. The main contract has been rolled over to the May contract. The resistance level of the rebar 2605 contract is 3,200, and the strong support level is around 3,050. It is not recommended to chase long for now [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the Chinese stock market is expected to rise further in 2026, continuing this year's strong upward trend [2]. - A team led by the head of Asia at J.P. Morgan and the co - head of global emerging market equity strategy upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - Due to the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which has a negative impact on the peripheral markets, the major indices of the two Chinese stock markets oscillated and declined on Tuesday. However, the markets have basically digested the external negative factors, and the shrinking trading volume shows that the selling pressure is not significant. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and recover in the future [1][2][3]. - The stock market's profit - making effect will trigger the reallocation of domestic and global funds, with overseas capital flowing back to the Chinese market. This round of market may become a bubble and reach a considerable height [3]. - In the next three years, there is unlikely to be an AI bubble as current GPUs, including older generations, are fully utilized [3]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, affected by the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the major indices of the two markets oscillated and declined. The trading volume was 1.59 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking trend during the adjustment. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,554 points, down 22 points or 0.48%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2,978 points, down 15 points or 0.51%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,040 points, down 61 points or 0.87%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,313 points, down 73 points or 1.00% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top - performing ones were 5G Communication ETF, Building Materials ETF, China State - owned Enterprises ETF, Infrastructure 50 ETF, and General Aviation ETF, while the worst - performing were Media ETF, Film and Television ETF, and Rare Metals ETF Fund. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top - performing were forestry, aquatic products, hotel and catering, real estate services, and petrochemical indices, and the worst - performing were household appliance parts, motor manufacturing, energy metals, gaming, and film and television theater indices [1]. - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 2.7 billion, 2.2 billion, 1.7 billion, and 1.2 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - As of the last trading day of November (November 28), among all the funds that individual pension can invest in (Y - share funds), the best - performing funds in 2025 are mainly index funds such as CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50, ChiNext 50, ChiNext, and SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 [1]. - DeepSeek released DeepSeek - V3.2 and DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale. DeepSeek - V3.2 aims to balance reasoning ability and output length for daily use and reaches the highest level of current open - source models in agent evaluation. DeepSeek - V3.2 - Speciale aims to push the reasoning ability of open - source models to the extreme [1]. - J.P. Morgan upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [2][3]. - Alibaba Group's CEO stated that Alibaba is making efforts in both AI - to - B and AI - to - C directions, and based on its ecological advantages, Qianwen APP is expected to create the future AI living entrance [2]. - International Finance Association data shows that in the first 10 months of this year, overseas capital flowing into the Chinese stock market totaled $50.6 billion, far exceeding the full - year figure of $11.4 billion in 2024 [2][3]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun said that China will win the artificial intelligence competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan's expected interest rate hike has led to market concerns about a potential "carry - trade massacre" similar to that in December 2022 [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November was 48.2, lower than the expected 49 and the previous value of 48.7, indicating continuous contraction in the manufacturing industry [2]. - India's industrial output growth rate in October was much lower than that in September and the expected value, with manufacturing, mining, and power sectors all showing declines [2]. Market Logic - Affected by the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the major indices of the two markets oscillated and declined on Tuesday. The trading volume was 1.59 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking trend during the adjustment. The scale of newly - registered private equity fund products in October was only over 40 billion yuan, which is normal, but the existing scale increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, with an increase of more than 17 percentage points [1][2]. Future Outlook - The major indices of the two markets have basically digested the external negative factors, and the shrinking trading volume shows that the selling pressure is not significant. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and recover. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices for range trading [1][2][3]. - Traders' bullish sentiment on the offshore RMB has reached a 14 - year high [3]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to over 85% [3]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The major indices of the two markets have basically digested the external negative factors, and the shrinking trading volume shows that the selling pressure is not significant. The market is expected to continue to oscillate and recover. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices for range trading [3]. - Stock index option trading: As the stock index is in the stage of oscillating recovery, look for opportunities to buy deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options on the stock index [3].

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 周一尿素主力合约 2601 价格下跌 3 元至 1675 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 元至 1680 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 5655 手至 21.29 万手，空头持仓增 541 手至 23.38 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.9 万吨，较上一工作日-0.44；较去年同期增加 1.45 万吨；今日开工率 82.28%，较去年同期 81.6%提升 0.67%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 136.39 万吨，减少 7.33 万吨，环比减少 5.10%。 尿素港口样本库存量 10 万吨，环比持平。 | | 能源与化 | ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 02 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 隔夜夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘2601合约涨幅0.27%，收于2243元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加工企业 | | | | | 收购价2078元/吨，较28日涨21元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2277元/吨，较2 | | | | | 8日跌3元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日港口价格涨势延续。昨日锦州港15%水二等新季玉 | | | | | 米收购价2210-2240元/吨左右，较28日涨10元/吨；蛇口港成交价2400元/吨，较28 | | | | | 日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、昨日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 重要事项: 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 2 日星期二 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1093.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.44%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1619.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.86%。昨日夜盘，Jm2601 收于 1095.5，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘上涨 0.23%；J2601 合约收于 1617.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.12%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国钢铁工业协会党委副书记、副会长兼秘书长姜维表示，钢铁需求总量已进入下 | | | | | 行期，成本压力空前巨大。中国钢铁以及河北钢铁要聚焦高端化、绿色化、智能化和融 | | | | | 合化发展；要努力打 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约期货价格上涨 | 40 | 元至 | 2161 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格上 | | | | | | | | | | 涨 | 8 | 元至 | 2118 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 32099 | 手至 | 60.28 | 万手，空头持仓 | 减少 | 28993 | 手至 | 70.9 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 89.1%，环比+0.37%。海外甲醇开工率 | 66.9%，环比 | | | | | | | | | | | | -5.8%。 | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 | 136.35 | 万吨，减少 | 11.58 | 万 ...

联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郑棉总成交 | 362854 | 持仓 | 1016214。结算价 | 1 | 月 | 13760，5 | 月 | 13725，9 | 月 | 13825。 | ICE12 | 月合约结算价 | 62.83 | 跌 | 8 | 点，3 | 月 | 64.63 | 跌 | 8 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.78 | 跌 | 14 | 点；成 | | 交约 | 3.2 | 万手。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 ...