Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the lack of significant improvement at the industrial level, the short - term market may continue to be bullish under the anti - involution macro - expectations, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3072, up 0.23%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3201, up 0.25%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12730, up 0.539%. The night - session closed lower [1] Important News - The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes creating a fair - competition market environment. Trump announced that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, likely to take effect on August 1st, with rates ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [1] Market Logic - On Friday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil generally rose with average trading volume. After reaching new highs, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. Recently, blast - furnace overhauls have increased, and there are emission - reduction and production - restriction measures in Tangshan from July 4 - 15, having little impact on overall production. Steel inventories decreased slightly last week, and demand shows off - season characteristics [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The resistance level of the main rebar contract has moved up to 3130, with an important support level at 3000. The support level of hot - rolled coil is 3026, and the resistance level is 3282. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1]

Morning session notice | 研究员： | | --- | | 刘洋 | | 从业资格： | | F3063825 | | 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.11%报 3346.5 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.14%报 37.14 美 | | | | | 元/盎司。夜盘沪金主连涨 0.19%，报 777.00 元/克，沪银主连涨 0.16%，报 8931 | | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至北京时间 5 日 8:32，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 947.66 | | | | | 吨，较前一个交易日维持不变。 | | | | | 2、美国总统称已签署 12 封贸易信函，计划周一发出。贝森特称与欧盟的贸易磋商 | | | | | 正在推进，未来两天或宣布重大消息。 | ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 7 日星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五在银行板块拉升的带动下，上证指数向 3500 点整数位发起冲击，未能冲过后， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卖盘涌出，日线收出长上影。两市成交额 1.42 万亿元，温和放量。中证 1000 指数 收 6312 点，跌 30 点，跌幅-0.48%；中证 500 指数收 5911 点，跌 11 点，跌幅-0.19%； 沪深 300 指数收 3982 点，涨 14，涨幅 0.36%；上证 50 指数收 2740 点，涨 15 点， | | | | | 涨幅 0.58%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是游戏 ETF、银行 ETF、金融科技 ETF、 | | | | | 创新药 ETF、科创医药 ET ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as "Bullish" [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with positive factors such as strong US non - farm payroll data in June, expected Fed rate cut in September, expanding manufacturing PMIs in the US and China, and improved European manufacturing due to ECB rate cuts and Germany's military expansion [1] Summary by Related Information Important News - Trump has signed tariff letters to about 12 countries with tax rates from 10% to 70%, to be sent on July 8 and implemented on August 1 [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bentsen suggests a possible larger rate cut in September if no near - term cut [1] - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer's 5 - billion - pound welfare cut plan was rejected, causing a more than 20 - basis - point jump in 30 - year UK bond yields [1] - Bentsen says the US is taking measures to maintain the dollar's reserve status and warns about the euro - dollar exchange rate [1] - Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund had a $61.1 - billion loss in Q1, with overseas stocks down 6% and overseas bonds down 2% [1] - Tesla faces sales pressure due to a lack of new models, and Musk shifts focus to autonomous taxis and humanoid robots [1] - OPEC+ eight major members agreed to an 8 - month production increase of 548,000 barrels per day, exceeding the expected 411,000 barrels per day [1] - The Fed is evaluating factors reshaping the US economy and labor market [1] Global Economic Logic - US June non - farm payroll data was much better than expected, and the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September [1] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.0, continuing to expand, and China's June PMI production and new order indices also showed expansion [1] - China's crackdown on cut - throat competition boosts listed company performance [1] - The ECB has cut rates 8 times, and Germany's 30% military expansion drives up European manufacturing [1] - China may lead in the "robot race" due to manufacturing and policy advantages [1]

Morning session notice 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 7 | 元至 | 1737 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格上 | | | | | | | 涨 | 20 | 至 | 1800 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 1517 | 手至 | 17.34 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 2269 | 手至 | 19.59 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开工 | 85.79%，较去年同期 | 78.27%提升 | 7.52% ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 04 日星期五 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货：隔夜夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截止夜盘收盘2509合约跌幅0.08%，收 | | | | | 于2362元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日南北港口价格稳定。鲅鱼圈（容重680-730/15% | | | | | 水）收购价2320-2340元/吨，较前一日稳定；锦州港（15%水/容重680-720）收购价 | | | | | 2320-2340元/吨，较前一日稳定；蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2470元/吨，较前一日稳定 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 截至 07 月 03 日： | | | | | RU2509 合约收盘价为 14015 元/吨，日跌幅 0.78%。 | | | | | NR2508 合约收盘价为 12125 元/吨，日跌幅 1.22%。 | | | | | BR2508 合约收盘价为 11185 元/吨，日跌幅 0.67%。。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.本周上海全乳胶周均价 14000 元/吨，+150/+1.08%；青岛市场 20 号泰标周均价 | | | | | 1724 美元/吨，+29/+1.71%；青岛市场 20 号泰混周均价 13926 元/吨，+156/+1.13% | | | | | 2.截至 7 月 3 日，OSE12 月 RSS3 橡胶收盘价 310.5 日元/公斤，日跌幅 0.80%。 | | | | | 3.本周中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为 64.13%，环比-6.27 个百分点，同比-15.85 | | | | | 个百分点 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘多数小幅上涨，全天走势为探底回升，收长下影线，截 至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 下跌 0.02%，10 年期 T2509 持平，5 年期 | | | | | TF2509 上涨 0.01%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 572 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 5093 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日实现净回笼 4521 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场短期利率较上一交易日小幅下行，DR001 全天加 | | | | | 权平均为 1.32%，上一交易日加权平均 1.36%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.47%，上一 | | | | | 交易日加权平均 1.51%。 | | | | TL、T、 | 3、现券市场：周四银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日窄幅波动，2 年期国债 | | | | TF、 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market due to measures such as anti - involution, capital market reforms, and the improvement of the A - share market's attractiveness [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the major indexes of the two markets fluctuated slightly upward. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6342 points, up 33 points or 0.53%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5922 points, up 29 points or 0.50%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2724 points, up 2 points or 0.07%; the CSI 300 index closed at 3968 points, up 24 points or 0.62%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.30 trillion yuan, showing a slight contraction. The top - rising ETFs were 5GETF, Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF Cathay, etc., while the top - falling ones were Energy ETF, Oil and Gas Resources ETF, etc. The top - rising sector indexes were consumer electronics, components, etc., and the top - falling ones were marine economy, coal mining, etc. The margin funds of CSI 1000, CSI 500, and CSI 300 index futures had net inflows of 100 million, 50 million, and 20 million yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The CSRC meeting proposed to optimize capital market mechanisms and promote a new round of comprehensive in - depth capital market reforms. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission initiated anti - involution and capacity - reduction actions in industries such as photovoltaic, steel, and cement. In June 2025, the number of new A - share accounts reached 1.65 million, with a cumulative total of 12.6 million in the first half of the year. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned to regulate the photovoltaic industry's low - price competition. The US Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major chip design software suppliers to apply for a license for their business in China. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year. There were different views on the impact of stablecoins on US Treasury bond demand. Some institutions believed that US stocks were the best investment choice, and the US employment data was mixed [1][2]. Market Logic - The anti - involution actions boosted listed companies' performance, and the capital market played a multi - level role in promoting consumption through a closed - loop policy design [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to trend upward. Factors include capital market reforms, anti - involution and capacity - reduction actions, the recovery of new account openings in the A - share market, the revocation of restrictions on chip design software suppliers' business in China, the potential inflow of international funds into the A - share market, and the governance of low - price competition in enterprises [2]. Trading Strategy - For stock index futures, go long on the four major stock index futures contracts. For stock index options, buy out - of - the - money long - term call options [2].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹主力收于 3076，上涨 1.45%；热卷主力收于 3208，上涨 1.45%。不锈钢主 力收于 12710，上涨 0.55%。夜盘继续收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、本周，五大品种钢材总库存量 1339.93 万吨，周环比降 0.1 万吨。其中，钢厂 | | | | | 库存量 423.8 万吨，周环比降 9.72 万吨；社会库存量 916.13 万吨，周环比增 9.62 | | | | | 万吨。 | | | | | 2、乘联分会：6 月 1 日-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 203.2 万辆，同比增长 15%， | | | | | 环比增长 5%；全国乘用车新能源市场零售 ...