研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 1119.5 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日日盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1119.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.94%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1715.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.05%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1119.5，环比日盘收盘持平。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1706.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.5%。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 1、2026 年国补方案正式发布，国家发改委、财政部印发《关于 2026 年实施大规模设备 更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》，同时下达首批 625 亿元资金支持消费品以旧换新。 2026 年国补对象新增智能眼镜、智能家居等 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、上周（12 | 月 | 22 | 日-12 | 月 | 28 | 日），10 | 个重点城市新建商品房成交（签约）面积 | 总计 | 293.66 | 万平方米，环比增长 | 31.6%，同比下降 | 27.7%。 | | 2、据 | Mysteel | 不完全整理，2025 | 年超 | 130 | 个钢铁项目开工或投产。 | 3、2026 | 年国补方案 ...

Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 6 元至 6052 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6035 元/吨 （+0），华南瓶片价格 6080 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 2890 手至 5.35 万手，空头持仓增加 2242 手至 5.69 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上月增加 0.99 万吨。2025 年累计 出口量 586.5 万吨。 3、各大机构对需求前景仍不乐观，叠加西方节日气氛导致交易清淡的影响仍在，国 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2] 2. Report's Core View - ICE US cotton futures declined slightly, with the main 03 contract settling at 64.32 cents, a 0.05% drop. As the New Year's Day approaches, market sentiment is cautious, leading to some profit - taking on previous long positions in Zhengzhou cotton. Fundamentally, the expected supply pressure is alleviated, and the positive impact of the new - year subsidy policy is gradually digested. Coupled with the high - level hedging pressure, multiple factors are suppressing the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton, which is expected to remain volatile in the short term. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.32, down 3 points; 5 - month at 65.64, up 1 point; 7 - month at 66.85, up 1 point, with about 37,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 664,198 lots and an open interest of 1,149,796 lots. The settlement prices were 14,530 yuan/ton for January, 14,485 yuan/ton for May, and 14,670 yuan/ton for September [2] 3.2 Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% month - on - month decrease from 1,822 tons and a 28.3% year - on - year decrease from 2,374 tons. From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan's cumulative cotton imports were about 6,692 tons, a 32.5% decrease compared to 9,912 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] - From December 12th to 18th, the United States graded and inspected 199,300 tons of 2025/26 cotton, with 83.7% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. By the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 2.4243 million tons, with 82.7% meeting the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of 2025/26 Indian cotton was about 42,000 tons. The CCI sold about 72,000 tons through auctions, with a trading volume of 867 tons on the 19th and 1,003 tons the previous day. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with a strike price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, partially close out long futures positions, and it is recommended to stay in cash during the holiday [2]

Morning session notice 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘2603合约跌幅0.54%，收于2229元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加工企 | | | | | 业收购价2133元/吨，较前一日涨6元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2264元/吨， | | | | | 较前一日跌2元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日港口价格北强南稳。锦州港收购价2282-22 | | | | | 85元/吨，较前一日涨15元/吨；蛇口港成交价2410元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | | | 3、12月30日，玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0手，共计39395手。 | | | | | 4、12月30日，中储粮公司举行玉米采购交易，计划采购玉米量3.9万吨，成交量1. | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil market, due to factors such as potential biodiesel policy benefits, changes in production and export volumes, and inventory changes, the market is cautious around the New Year's Day holiday. It is advisable to take profits on previous long positions in vegetable oils and resume trading after the holiday [1][2]. - For the double - meal market, considering factors like global soybean trade re - evaluation, high domestic bean meal inventory, and limited terminal price acceptance, it is recommended to conduct intraday trading before the holiday and make long - term plans after the holiday [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oils Market Review - On December 30, driven by the strengthening of the Malaysian palm oil market, the Dalian palm oil market rose, leading to an increase in the overall vegetable oil prices. The main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all had price changes, with different trends in positions [1]. Important Information - The biodiesel policy may bring positive effects. The Trump administration may make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Starting from January 1, the tax credit for US biodiesel and renewable diesel producers will increase [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, with a decline in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield and oil extraction rate (OER). The export volume increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in November [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation increased by about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The B50 road test started in December, and the mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1]. - As of the end of the 52nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 36,700 tons week - on - week, a 1.60% decline [1]. Market Logic - Overseas, after Christmas, US soybean oil opened high and closed low but still had an upward trend. The Malaysian palm oil market was pressured by high - inventory expectations and technical resistance levels. Domestically, due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday, the market was cautious. For soybean oil, there were both long and short factors; for palm oil, it was mainly pressured; for rapeseed oil, the inventory continued to decline, and traders were reluctant to sell, with a positive sentiment [2]. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, take profits on previous long positions in vegetable oils and resume trading after the holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There are no arbitrage strategies for now [2]. Double - Meals Market Review - On December 30, the double - meal market opened low and closed high, with rapeseed meal performing stronger than soybean meal. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal had different price and position changes [2]. Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres [2]. - As of the week of December 25, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 870,199 tons, with 135,417 tons to the Chinese mainland [2]. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons [2]. - As of December 27, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 97.9%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1%. Argentina's soybean sowing is three - quarters complete, and the crop condition is generally good [3]. - Brazil's December soybean export volume is expected to be 3.57 million tons [3]. - S&P Global Research Report states that in 2026, the US soybean market may face a decline in both production and exports, while Brazil's soybean harvest may prompt China to seek more Brazilian supplies [3]. - As of the end of the 52nd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 875,000 tons week - on - week, the domestic bean meal inventory increased by 84,000 tons week - on - week, and the contract volume decreased [3]. - On December 24, there were rumors that the customs inspection procedures would be tightened until the second quarter of next year [3]. Market Logic - Overseas, the market re - evaluated global soybean trade, and with the end of the year approaching, previous funds withdrew, causing US soybeans to close down. Domestically, the high bean meal inventory restricted terminal procurement. Although there was some support on the supply side, the terminal's acceptance of price increases was limited, and the market trading was light [3]. Trading Strategy - Conduct intraday trading in the double - meal market before the holiday and make long - term plans after the holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There are no arbitrage strategies for now [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US is adopting a contractionary strategy globally, which will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes [3] - The Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak between July and November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" trend [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - The offshore RMB has broken through 6.99 yuan. With the expectation of RMB appreciation against the US dollar in 2026, the settlement speed of export foreign exchange earnings may accelerate [1] - Trump hinted at having a candidate for the next Fed chair, might fire current chair Powell, and is considering suing him for "gross negligence" [1][2] - Trump threatened to support strikes against Iran if it continues to develop ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons [1] - A Bloomberg survey shows that 21 strategists predict an average 9% rise in the S&P 500 index in 2026, but there are warnings about risks [1] - SoftBank will acquire DigitalBridge for about $4 billion in cash, a 15% premium to the last Friday's closing price [1] - There's no "concrete reason to short" silver. Low liquidity, increased margin requirements, and over - bought signals led to the price correction [1] - Passive funds tracking the BCOM index will sell gold and silver futures during re - balancing, and silver faces more concentrated technical selling pressure [1] - Trump will "consider" Zelensky's proposal to extend the 15 - year security guarantee period [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2026 and buy $40 billion of short - term bonds monthly, expanding its balance sheet [2] - The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, raising concerns about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning signal [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - JPMorgan strategists believe that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rose to 2.0% [2] - The US is releasing a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China and trying to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divergence, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families tighten their belts [2]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 在离岸人民币强劲升值的背景下，周二两市主要指数低开震荡上行后波动，机器人 | | | | | 板块领涨 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.20% to $4352.30 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.04% at 986.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed up 5.36% at 18792 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of December 30, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous day at 1071.99 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 149.46 tons to 16455.42 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.1%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.5% [1] - In the early morning of the 31st, the Fed's December meeting minutes showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in the December meeting, but officials had serious differences. If inflation gradually declines as expected, most officials think further rate cuts are appropriate. The committee will start buying short - term Treasury bonds as needed to maintain an adequate supply of reserves and will remove the total limit on the standing repurchase operation [1] Market Logic - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had serious differences. The decision - making process reflects the dependence of the future rate - cut rhythm on economic data and the divergence of policy paths. The market's expectation of a rate cut in January next year has remained below 20% recently, and it declined slightly on Tuesday [1] - CME Group raised the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29, which triggered long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. On Monday, precious metals fell sharply. On Tuesday, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 149.46 tons, indicating strong buying support for silver [1] - On December 30, the US dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.22. On December 30, COMEX gold rose first and then fell, while COMEX silver rebounded significantly [2] Trading Strategy - Due to the intensified short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2]

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.17%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 3125 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 593 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净投放 2532 亿元。 | | ...