Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期周二 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 29 日，元旦假期在即，市场交投谨慎，植物油板块承压，棕榈油技术位面临 较大压力，豆油和菜籽油呈现弱势振荡。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7818 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.23%，日增仓 | | | | | 3768 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7716 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.31%，日增 | | | | | 仓 646 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8512 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.65%，日减 | | | | | 仓 26557 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周一夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格上涨 5 元至 2182 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 | | | | | 格上涨 15 元至 2150 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 672 手至 46.1 万手，空头持 | | | | | 仓减少 6775 手至 58.3 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.2%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 141.25 万吨，较上一期数据增加 19.37 吨。 | | | | | 其 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors are advised to adjust positions and control risks [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures fell 4.45% to $4350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 4% at 975.8 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 8.74% at 17,237 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important News - As of December 29, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.86 tons to 1071.99 tons, while the持仓 of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 84.6 tons to 16305.96 tons [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9% [1] - Trump confirmed that the US military attacked a large - scale facility in the Venezuelan operation. He also stated that if Iran continues to develop ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons, he supports strikes against Iran [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains within 20%. CME Group announced a significant margin adjustment on December 26, raising the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29, which triggered long - position profit - taking. On December 29, the US dollar index fell slightly by 0.04% to 98.00, and both COMEX gold and silver declined significantly with silver fluctuating violently throughout the day [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the intensified short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust positions and control risks [1]

联系方式：0371-65617380 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 Morning session notice 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘2603合约涨幅0.54%，收于2249元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加工企 | | | | | 业收购价2127元/吨，较上周五涨9元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2266元/吨， | | | | | 较上周五跌9元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日港口价格明显上涨。锦州港收购价2265-22 | | | | | 80元/吨，较上周五涨25元/吨；蛇口港成交价2410元/吨，较上周五涨20元/吨。 | | | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is rated as "volatile"; jujube in the same sector is also rated as "volatile"; rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is rated as a combination of "volatile" for natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and synthetic rubber [1][4][5]. Group 2: Core Views - For the sugar market, overseas sugar supply pressure remains due to increasing Indian sugar production, and both domestic and overseas sugar markets have a bearish outlook in the medium to long - term. For the jujube market, although there is a seasonal de - stocking, the total inventory is still high, and there are insufficient positive factors for a significant price rebound in the medium to long - term. For the rubber market, natural rubber may face a correction due to eased overseas tensions and continued inventory accumulation, and the upward momentum of synthetic rubber prices may be hindered [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - On the previous trading day, the SR605 contract closed at 5,253 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the night - session closed at 5,263 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 5,299 yuan/ton. The price ranges of sugar - making groups and processing plants also had different degrees of decline. As of December 27, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 16.71% year - on - year, and sugar production decreased by 15.83%. As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased by 27.69% year - on - year. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,038 [1]. Market Logic - The ICE raw sugar price stabilized after the previous positive news was digested. The domestic sugar market was quiet in terms of news, and the fundamental expectations changed little. The significant rebound of the previous domestic sugar futures was mainly due to the overseas market and the departure of short - selling funds. Currently, domestic sugar mills are in full - swing production, and new sugar will be on the market at a high speed in the future [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the SR605 contract, and partially take profit on the previously held call options [1]. Jujube Market Review - On the previous trading day, the CJ605 contract closed at 8,970 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.11% [4]. Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 15,898 tons, a decrease of 1.30% week - on - week and an increase of 37.17% year - on - year. The wholesale price of top - grade jujubes in Hebei decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1. The number of jujube warehouse receipts increased by 79 to 1,171 [4]. Market Logic - The jujube inventory is in the seasonal de - stocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negative factors are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has received some support after falling to the previous low. In the medium to long - term, there are insufficient positive factors, and the futures price may not have much room for a significant rebound. In the short - term, it may fluctuate at a low level without new news and capital injection [4]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract or take profit and exit [4]. Rubber Market Review - As of December 29, the RU2605 contract closed at 15,665 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.73%; the NR2602 contract closed at 12,665 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%; the BR2602 contract closed at 11,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.30% [5]. Important Information - The price of raw material glue in Thailand and the prices in Hainan remained unchanged. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.28% week - on - week. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 2.5%. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises decreased. The prices of various rubber products had different degrees of changes. The price of butadiene had different price ranges in different regions, and the prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in Shandong market increased [5]. Market Logic - The natural rubber price was weak. The easing of overseas tensions limited the increase in Thai raw material prices, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. In the context of the release of previous positive factors and the weakening of the commodity market atmosphere, the natural rubber may face a correction. For synthetic rubber, the rising butadiene price supports the cis - butadiene rubber price, but the stalemate in the spot market negotiation and the drag of the natural rubber futures may hinder the upward momentum of the BR futures price [5]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the rubber series, and consider taking profit on the previously held long positions in a timely manner [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is from Green大华 Futures Research Institute on December 30, 2025, written by researcher Wang Zijian [2] Group 2: Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settlement price is 64.35, down 14 points; 5 - month is 65.63, down 15 points; 7 - month is 66.84, down 11 points, with about 35,000 lots traded [2] - Zhengzhou cotton total trading volume is 664,198 lots, open interest is 1,149,796 lots. Settlement prices are 14,530 yuan/ton for January, 14,485 yuan/ton for May, and 14,670 yuan/ton for September [2] Group 3: Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% decrease from the previous month and a 28.3% decrease from the same period last year. From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan's cumulative cotton imports are about 6,692 tons, a 32.5% decrease year - on - year [2] - From December 12 to 18, 2025, the United States graded and inspected 199,300 tons of cotton in the 2025/26 season, with 83.7% of lint meeting ICE futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection is 2,424,300 tons, with 82.7% meeting the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons of lint. The CCI sold about 72,000 tons through reserve auctions, with a trading volume of 867 tons on that day, and the S - 6 auction base price is stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] Group 4: Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures rose and then fell. The main 03 contract settled at 64.35 cents, down 0.22%. With the New Year's Day approaching, the market sentiment is cautious. Some long positions in Zhengzhou cotton were closed. Fundamentally, the expected supply pressure eases, the positive impact of the subsidy policy is gradually digested, and the high - level hedging pressure exists, suppressing the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a volatile trend [2] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with a strike price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, and partially close the long positions in futures [2]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半、大致平开，早盘开盘后即大幅下行一波然后 走平，午后小幅下探后略有反弹，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.91%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.28%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.18%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 4823 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 673 亿元逆回 购到期，当日合计净投放 4150 亿元 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘主力合约期货 BZ2603 价格下跌 62 元至 5470 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 格 5360 元/吨（环比+35），山东地区现货价格 5206 元/吨（环比+39）。持仓方面， 多头持仓增加 652 手至 1.72 万手，空头持仓增加 1863 至 2.2 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 纯苯 | 震荡 | 2、库存方面，截 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 30 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2605 价格 1735 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 10 元至 1700 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 4241 手至 16.03 万手，空头持仓减少 2631 手至 18.53 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 70 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 106.89 万吨，较上周减少 11.08 万吨，环比 减少 9.39%。尿素港口样本库存量 17.7 万吨，环比+3.9 万吨。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比- ...

联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 20 元至 6020 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6035 元/吨 （-45），华南瓶片价格 6080 元/吨（-50）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 5347 手至 5.08 万手，空头持仓减少 6284 手至 5.46 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上月增加 0.99 万吨。2025 年累计 出口量 586.5 万吨。 3、美乌领导人会晤未能达成实质性突破，俄乌双方冲突仍在进行，地缘不稳推升供 | | 工 | 瓶片 | 震荡 | 应风险，国际油价上涨。NYMEX 原油期货 02 合约 58.08 涨 1.34 美元/桶 ...