Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - China's overall export growth in the first seven months of this year exceeded that of 2024, despite negative year-on-year growth in exports to the US, due to export diversification [2][8] - The adjustment of the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" by the US on August 7 and China's front - loaded exports in the first seven months, along with a relatively high export base in Q4 2024, will lead to a slowdown in China's export growth [3][11] Summary by Related Content Overall Export and Import Situation - In July, China's US - dollar - denominated exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year (estimated 5.8%, previous 5.9%), imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year (estimated 0.3%, previous 1.1%), and the trade surplus was $98.24 billion (previous $114.75 billion) [1][4] - From January to July, China's cumulative export value increased by 6.1% year - on - year (5.82% in 2024), and the cumulative import value in the first half of the year decreased by 2.7% year - on - year (1.03% in 2024) [1][4] Export to Major Trade Partners - In July, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6% year - on - year (16.9% in June, 13.5% from January to July, 12% in 2024), exports to the EU increased by 9.2% year - on - year (7.6% in June, 7.0% from January to July, 3.0% in 2024), and exports to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year (down 16.1% in June, - 12.6% from January to July, 4.9% in 2024) [2][5] - In July, China's exports to South Korea increased by 4.6% year - on - year (down 6.7% in June, - 1.1% from January to July, - 1.8% in 2024), and exports to Japan increased by 2.5% year - on - year (6.6% in June, 4.4% from January to July, - 3.5% in 2024) [5] Export Diversification - In July, China's exports to countries and regions outside the top five export destinations increased by 13.5% year - on - year, faster than the overall 7.2% year - on - year growth of China's US - dollar - denominated exports in July [2][8] - In the first seven months, China's exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 10.4% year - on - year, and exports to Africa in July increased by 42.4% year - on - year (34.8% in June, 24.5% cumulative year - on - year from January to July, 3.5% in 2024) [2][8] Export Product Categories - In the first seven months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products were $1.18 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 8.1% (7.5% in 2024), and exports of high - tech products increased by 6% year - on - year (4.8% in 2024) [3][9] - In the first seven months, exports of traditional labor - intensive products such as clothing, toys, and furniture decreased year - on - year, as did exports of home appliances and mobile phones, while exports of high - tech and high - value - added products such as integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships increased [3][9] Impact of US Tariff Policy - On July 31, the US signed an executive order to adjust the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple trading partners, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, effective August 7, which will impact global trade [3][11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [2] 2. Core View - In August, the downstream of methanol is still in the seasonal off - season. This week, the ports continued to accumulate inventory while the inland reduced inventory. The import volume is expected to increase significantly in July. With tight inland supply, considering the time window for port back - flow and coal cost support, the short - term methanol price will oscillate within the range of 2360 - 2450 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 1 yuan/ton to 2394 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region fell 6 yuan/ton to 2382 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 8657 lots to 247,600 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 11,765 lots to 305,700 lots [2] Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 81.6%, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period. The overseas methanol operating rate is 70.6%, a 0.5% increase from the previous period [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 70,000 tons, and that in South China increased by 47,100 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period, a 9.50% decrease [2] - **Demand**: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 36,000 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a 4.37% increase. The olefin operating rate is 85.11%, a 1.5% increase; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.33%, unchanged; the methyl chloride operating rate is 85.5%, a 4.08% increase; the acetic acid operating rate is 89.2%, a 2.1% decrease; the formaldehyde operating rate is 41.6%, a 1.6% decrease; the MTBE operating rate is 66.6%, a 1.1% decrease [2] - **Policy**: On July 18, Xie Shaofeng, the chief engineer of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated at a press conference that it is necessary to strengthen the foundation of the industrial economy, implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, and promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. The specific work plans will be gradually released in the near future [2] Market Logic - Due to the seasonal off - season of downstream methanol in August, port inventory accumulation, inland inventory reduction, expected significant import increase in July, tight inland supply, and coal cost support, the short - term methanol price will oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2450 yuan/ton [2] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 7 日星期四 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 6 元至 1750 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格上 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 涨 10 至 1790 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 2819 手至 17.29 万手，空头持仓减 少 5677 手至 19.06 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.21 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.20 万吨；较去年同 期增加 1.91 万吨；今日开工 82.98%，较去年同期 78.44%提升 4.54%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 88.76 万吨，较上周减少 2.97 万吨，环比减 | | | | | 少 3.24%。尿素港口样本库存量 49.3 万吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol price will oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 2360 - 2450 yuan/ton. Traders are advised to wait and see or make short - term long positions. The 8 - month methanol downstream is in the seasonal off - season, last week the ports saw inventory accumulation while the inland areas had inventory reduction, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in July. The improved inland auction transactions and olefin external procurement provide support, along with coal cost support [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday night, the futures price of the methanol main contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 2392 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the mainstream East China region rose 5 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 7677 lots to 274,200 lots, and the short - position decreased by 7665 lots to 341,300 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 85.36%, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 72.45%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 25,000 tons, and that in South China increased by 57,600 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51% [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 36,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7500 tons. The orders to be shipped of sample enterprises are 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.76%. The olefin operating rate is 86.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.42%, a month - on - month increase of 5.63%; the acetic acid operating rate is 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 43.29%, a month - on - month increase of 5.55%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22% [2] - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. The specific work plans will be released soon [2] Market Logic - In August, the methanol downstream is in the seasonal off - season. Last week, ports saw inventory accumulation while inland areas had inventory reduction. In July, the import volume is expected to increase significantly. The improved inland auction transactions and olefin external procurement provide support, along with coal cost support, so the short - term methanol price will oscillate [2] Trading Strategy - Wait and see or make short - term long positions [2]

市场快讯 -- 欧洲预期需求走强 棕榈油内外具强 1、印尼一位部长表示,当(印尼和 欧盟) 双方批准即将签署的自由贸 易协定时,欧盟将对每年100万吨印 尼毛棕榈油出口配额给予零关税待 遇。欧盟和印尼预计将于9月正式签 署自贸易协定,并有望在明年获 得各自立法机构批准。 在庫屋屋屋屋屋屋屋屋屋屋 電電電電電電電 2、中国棕榈油进口利润好转,买船 增加,带动中国棕榈油李节性垒库, 国内为9月开学准备,消费提前启动。 综上所述:中长期保持看涨思路, 棕榈油远月2601合约多单继续持有。 数据来源:文华财经,粮油商务网 研究员：刘锦 从业资格 FO276812 交易咨询：Z0011862 联系电话13633849418 免责声 ; 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的培育性及完整作不作任何保证、不保证报告信息已做展新变受、也不保证分领取做出的至何建议不会发生任何变受，在任何情况下，报告中的信息或所达处意见，不构成欣 都投高的买卖的出价或为价。在任何情况下，我公司不能提合中的但何内容对任何投资所做出任何形式放担保。投资者假必没领，贺谈习到彼发出与本报告意见不一张的其他托管，本报告反映分析体人的意见与短波 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 5 日 星期二 早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一两市主要指数回升，机器人板块领涨市场。两市成交额 1.49 万亿元，稍有缩 | | | | | 量。中证 1000 指数收 6739 点，涨 69 点，涨幅 1.04%；中证 500 指数收 6261 点， | | | | | 涨 48 点，涨幅 0.78%；沪深 300 指数收 4070 点，涨 15 点，涨幅-0.39%；上证 50 | | | | | 指数收 2769 点，涨 15 点，涨幅 0.55%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是黄金股 ETF、 | | | | | 航空航天 ETF、卫星产业 ETF、机器人 50ETF、游戏 ETF，跌幅居前的是 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, Guangzhou Futures Exchange released a public consultation announcement on platinum and palladium futures and options contracts and related rules, indicating the upcoming official listing of these varieties, which is a significant step in the diversification and internationalization of China's futures market [1]. - The long - term price trend of platinum and gold was highly correlated before 2015, but they diverged after 2015. Gold entered a bull market due to factors like quantitative easing, central bank purchases, and geopolitical conflicts, while platinum was suppressed by weak demand and high inventory [4]. - In the short - term, platinum prices first rose due to the proposed copper tariff by the Trump administration, increased investment demand, and supply disruptions in South Africa, then回调 in July due to the removal of tariff risks and profit - taking [10][11]. - Despite short - term回调 pressure, the platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand gap until 2029, and its price center may gradually move up with the growth of the hydrogen energy sector [13]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Platinum Spot Price 1. Long - term Trend - Before 2015, platinum's price trend was highly correlated with gold. After 2015, gold entered a bull market due to factors such as quantitative easing, central bank purchases, and geopolitical conflicts, while platinum faced weak demand due to global economic slowdown and high ground inventory, and its price fluctuated around the cost [4]. 2. Recent Trend - In Q1 2025, the platinum market continued to fluctuate. In May, the news of a proposed 50% tariff on copper by the Trump administration led to a surge in short - term demand, increased investment demand as a substitute for gold, and supply disruptions in South Africa, pushing up the price. In July, after the US announced a tariff exemption for refined copper imports, the price回调 due to reduced hoarding and profit - taking [10][11]. II. Platinum Group Metals Introduction - Platinum group metals (PGMs) include platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, osmium, and ruthenium. They have unique physical and chemical properties such as high melting and boiling points, electro - thermal stability, chemical inertness, corrosion resistance, oxidation resistance, and excellent catalytic performance, and are widely used in modern industry as catalysts [17][18]. III. Platinum Industry Chain Structure - The upstream of the platinum industry involves exploration, mining, and preliminary processing of platinum mines, mainly located in South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe. The mid - stream focuses on refining and processing platinum into industrial and commercial products. The downstream includes end - use and consumer markets such as automotive, chemical, electronics, and investment [22][25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, due to the continuous rise in inventory, egg prices face downward pressure and will maintain a weak trend [3]. - Medium - term, the combination of concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a phased rebound in spot prices from August to September, but the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm, and currently the culling is less than expected, so the high should not be overly optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main contract of egg futures dropped sharply today. As of the time of writing, the 2509 contract fell to 3409 yuan/500 kg, a decline of 2.71% [3]. Spot Performance - Recently, the social inventory level has been continuously rising, and the weak egg price trend over the weekend continued. On August 3, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday [3]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the national laying - hen inventory in July was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 6.19%. The theoretical estimated laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - term, the continuous rise in inventory leads to downward pressure on egg prices, and the prices will run weakly [3]. - Medium - term, concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a phased rebound in spot prices from August to September, and the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm, with the current culling being less than expected [3]. Operation Suggestions - Last week, it was continuously suggested to maintain a high - short trading idea for the 2509 and 2510 contracts, and the trading strategy has been verified by the market. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lower support for the 2509 contract is temporarily at 3390 - 3400, and for the 2510 contract, it is at 3230 - 3240. If the support is effective, partial profit - taking can be considered [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term egg prices are under pressure to correct and will maintain a weak trend due to the continuous rise in inventory [3]. - Mid - term, the combination of concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a staged rebound in spot prices from August to September, but the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm, and currently the culling is less than expected, so the high should not be overly optimistic [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main contract of egg futures dropped significantly with a gap today. As of the time of writing, the 2509 contract fell to 3409 yuan/500 kilograms, a decline of 2.71% [3]. Spot Performance - The social inventory level has been rising recently, and the egg price weakness continued over the weekend. On August 3, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs was 2.84 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday [3]. - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 6.19%. The theoretical estimated value of the laying - hen inventory in August is 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52% [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - term, the continuous rise in inventory causes egg prices to face correction pressure and maintain a weak trend [3]. - Mid - term, concentrated culling and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a staged rebound in spot prices from August to September, and the rebound high depends on the culling rhythm [3]. Operation Suggestions - Last week, it was continuously suggested to maintain a high - selling strategy for the 2509 and 2510 contracts, and the trading strategy has been verified by the market. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lower support for the 2509 contract is temporarily at 3390 - 3400, and for the 2510 contract, it is at 3230 - 3240. If the support is effective, partial profit - taking can be considered [3].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The fraud incident of US non - farm payroll data from May to June in 2025 has multi - dimensional and differentiated impacts on the global commodity market, reshaping the pricing logic of new energy metals, iron ore, and oilseed agricultural products through the transmission chain of "economic expectation revision - monetary policy shift - industrial policy game." Different varieties show differentiation due to policy sensitivity differences. Investors need to pay close attention to the September Fed interest - rate meeting and China's "dual - carbon" policy details, which may be the key nodes for secondary pricing of the market [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Futures: The Tug - of - War between Demand Expectation Collapse and Geopolitical Conflicts - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June exposed the real weakness of the US job market, causing the market's expectation of crude oil demand to cool rapidly. The revised non - farm data showed that the new employment in May and June was only 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, far lower than the previously announced 144,000 and 147,000. Brent crude oil futures price once fell below $70/barrel after the incident was exposed, a decline of about 15% from the May high. The long - term demand - side impact depends on the pace of the US economic soft landing and the actual demand recovery in China. If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected in the fourth quarter, it may help improve the macro - expectation and support the oil price center [6]. - Geopolitical factors partially offset the demand concerns. OPEC + members have agreed in principle to significantly increase crude oil production again in September, planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day. Coupled with the rising expectation of the US imposing a 10% tariff on imported crude oil, international oil prices rebounded to around $75 in July. The crude oil market is in a volatile pattern of "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [6]. - In August, the supply side may increase to a certain extent, but the increase may be limited. The demand side is supported by the traditional peak season in the US, and the inventory - reduction trend is expected to continue, providing bottom support for oil prices. However, the pressure of OPEC + production increase still exists, and long - term crude oil prices face upward pressure. Domestic chemical futures are expected to be differentiated due to raw material costs and supply - demand factors [7][8]. 2. Gold Futures Regain Momentum: Driven by Both Safe - Haven Premium and Monetary Policy Shift - The market trust crisis triggered by the fraud of US non - farm data from May to June and the expectation of Fed policy shift jointly pushed the gold price to break through the historical high. After the release of weak non - farm data, the dollar index tumbled, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 46% to 73% [10]. - Spot gold soared after the non - farm data was announced, rising more than $70 and closing up 2.21% at $3362.88/ounce. COMEX gold futures broke through $2600/ounce. Central bank gold - buying behavior further strengthened the safe - haven attribute of gold. Goldman Sachs predicted that if the concerns about US fiscal sustainability intensify, the gold price may break through $3150/ounce by the end of 2025 [10][11]. 3. Copper Futures: The Intensified Game between Industrial Attributes and Policy Disturbances - The Trump administration's decision to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper pushed up the LME copper price, while the fraud of US non - farm data weakened the global industrial demand logic for copper. In June 2025, the global refined copper inventory increased by 12% compared with May, but the copper price premium in the US Midwest remained at a high level of $450/ton. The COMEX copper price closed at $9200/ton in July, down 7% from the May high but still higher than the beginning - of - year level [13]. 4. Aluminum Futures: The Balance between Cost Support and Demand Contraction - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June led to concerns about global and US economic recession, causing the LME aluminum price to fall by 4% in June. However, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices pushed up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, supporting the price to stabilize above $2000/ton. The adjustment of China's export structure was a key variable. The 22% increase in aluminum product exports to ASEAN in the first half of the year partially offset the impact of US tariffs. The supply - demand re - balance reduced the aluminum price volatility from 18% in May to 12% in June [14]. 5. New Energy Metal Futures: The Game between Cost Support and Capacity Clearance 5.1 Lithium Carbonate: Bottom - Range Fluctuation and Policy - Driven Expectations - The fraud of US non - farm data increased the market's concern about the global economic slowdown, and the expected demand for new energy vehicles decreased. The lithium carbonate price fell to the industry's cash - cost line of 60,000 yuan/ton from May to June. However, China's "dual - carbon" policy and the resilient demand in the energy - storage field partially offset the downward pressure. The volatility of lithium carbonate futures reached a new high since October 2024. After the price decline, the downstream rigid - demand procurement increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. 5.2 Polysilicon: The Tug - of - War between Inventory Reduction and Technological Iteration - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a downward adjustment of the expected photovoltaic installation, causing the polysilicon price to fall below 35,000 yuan/ton in June, a decline of 18% from the May high. The technological iteration of the increasing penetration rate of N - type silicon wafers supported the premium of high - purity polysilicon. The global polysilicon inventory decreased from 398,000 tons at the end of 2024 to 367,000 tons in June 2025, but the inventory - reduction speed was lower than expected. The expectation of China imposing a 15% tariff on polysilicon exports further suppressed market sentiment [20]. 6. Iron Ore: The Tug - of - War between Supply Expectations and Demand Resilience 6.1 Contradiction between Short - Term Demand Support and Long - Term Capacity Impact - After the fraud of US non - farm data, the market's concern about China's crude - steel production control increased. From May to July, the blast - furnace operating rate remained at a high level, and the daily average hot - metal output in July was above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore market demand. The price of iron ore fluctuated between $100 - 105/ton. The expected production of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea at the end of 2025 will have a significant impact on the global iron ore supply pattern, forming a long - term supply suppression. The term structure of the iron ore futures market has changed from the Contango structure to the Back structure [23][24]. 6.2 Superimposed Impact of Policy Game and Green Transformation - The increasing expectation of China imposing a 5% tariff on imported iron ore has raised the spot premium of iron ore. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has changed the iron ore market structure, increasing the demand for high - grade ore. The "near - strong, far - weak" pattern of the iron ore market has become more prominent [25]. 7. Agricultural Product Futures: Indirect Transmission through the Dollar Cycle and Trade Policy 7.1 Soybeans: Double Suppression of South American Bumper Harvest and Tariff Game - The fraud of US non - farm data and the expected South American soybean bumper harvest (expected output of 165 million tons) led to a 4.2% decline in the US soybean futures price in June. China's 10% tariff on US soybeans increased the import cost and reduced the non - commercial net long positions. The sharp decrease in soybean arrivals in China from October will lead to a decline in the operating rate and processing volume of domestic soybean oil mills. The basis of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil futures is at a five - year low, and the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are likely to rise [29][31]. 7.2 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal: The Tug - of - War between Trade Barriers and Inventory Cycle - China's 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal in May led to a sharp increase in the coastal rapeseed meal price. The policy of allowing the "domestic sales" of bonded - area rapeseed meal in June forced traders to accelerate exports, reducing domestic inventory. Uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations may lead to a shortage of rapeseed arrivals in China after October, which will boost the prices of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [32]. 7.3 Biodiesel Policy: Linkage between Energy Attributes and Agricultural Products - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a decrease in the US biodiesel blending ratio of soybean oil, causing the US soybean oil futures price to fall. The EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) supported the rebound of rapeseed oil futures. In the long term, palm oil may be a new buying opportunity after a sharp decline [33][34]. 7.4 Sugar: The Expectation of a Medium - to - Long - Term Weak Trend Remains - The impact of non - farm data fraud on sugar prices is limited. The ICE raw - sugar futures price is mainly affected by fundamental factors. The global sugar supply mainly depends on the Brazilian sugar - producing area. The long - term trend of raw - sugar prices may be weak [35][36]. 7.5 Cotton: Double Suppression of Cotton Demand - The fraud of US non - farm data and the political turmoil led to a decline in the cotton futures price. The economic slowdown and the decline in crude oil prices dragging down the price of polyester (a cotton substitute) have double - suppressed cotton demand [37]. 8. The Global Market Will Face Structural Changes such as Policy Reconstruction 8.1 Reconstruction of Global and US - European Monetary Policy Expectations - After the significant downward revision of US non - farm data from May to June, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2025 has increased from 75 basis points to 100 basis points. The downward revision of non - farm data is to create momentum for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process in September [38]. 8.2 The US May Enter a Cliff - like Interest - Rate Cut in 2026 - After the Fed starts to cut interest rates in September, the US will enter a period of loose monetary policy. In the second quarter of 2026, the Fed may lose its monetary - policy independence and start a cliff - like interest - rate cut [39]. 8.3 Global Financial Asset Reallocation Benefits Chinese Assets - With the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, international financial assets in the US will flow out, and global financial assets will be reallocated, benefiting Chinese assets [40].