Group 1 - Report industry: Agricultural products (soybeans, oil, and meal) [5] Group 2 - The core view of the report: Argentina's decision to cancel all grain export taxes before October 31 is expected to increase the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil and lower soybean premium quotes. In the short term, the market sentiment is negatively affected, and Argentine soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are expected to impact the market at low prices from September to October. However, the market will eventually return to its trading pattern, and the oil market is more resistant to pressure than the protein market [5] Group 3 - Event: Argentina's government announced the cancellation of all grain export taxes before October 31. The previous export tax rates were 26% for soybeans and 24.5% for soybean meal and soybean oil [5] - Market reaction: After the news, U.S. soybeans, U.S. soybean oil, and Malaysian palm oil prices declined. In the domestic market, the decline of Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean meal and three major oils exceeded 2% and 3%, respectively [5] - Supply impact: The policy is expected to increase the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil and lower soybean premium quotes [5] - Short - term impact: From September to October, due to the tax - exemption policy, Argentine soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are expected to impact the market at low prices [5] - Follow - up focus: It is necessary to pay attention to Argentina's subsequent export capacity. From January to August 2025, Argentina has processed and exported about 33.22 million tons of soybeans, with an annual remaining usage of about 15 million tons [5] - Market resistance: The oil market is more resistant to pressure than the protein market [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The macro and financial sector of the global economy is rated as "Bullish" [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with China implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, international capital actively increasing positions in China's technology sector, the US retail and manufacturing showing positive trends, the euro - zone manufacturing PMI breaking above the boom - bust line, and the global AI infrastructure accelerating [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - From a global perspective, Luobomei is more optimistic about non - US equity markets, especially China, Japan, and Europe. The weakening of the US dollar is expected to promote global capital re - balancing, and the demand for foreign capital to flow back to A - shares and Hong Kong stocks is expected to significantly increase [1] - A Goldman Sachs trader believes that the market is entering a liquidity - driven speculative stage, similar to the situation in 1999 in the US stock market, with the investment logic shifting from fundamentals to liquidity, market positions, and price trends [1] - Hong Kong - related ETFs have become the core carriers of capital inflows, with many products showing high scale and high net capital inflows. As of September 19, the latest scale of E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF exceeded 20 billion yuan, reaching 20.45 billion yuan [1] - Huaxi Securities believes that Huawei has achieved TB - level ultra - large bandwidth through multi - port aggregation and high - sealing technology. The inter - connection bandwidth of Atlas 950 reaches 16.3PB/s, 62 times that of NVIDIA NVL144, and has achieved a 24% improvement in latency [1] - Samsung has significantly raised the prices of memory and flash products, with DRAM products increasing by up to 30% and NAND flash prices rising by 5 - 10%. Micron and SanDisk have also announced similar price increases [1] - Morgan Stanley says the humanoid robot industry is at a critical turning point, with the global market expected to reach $5 trillion by 2050. China leads the world in commercial orders, with a cumulative order amount of 975 million yuan, and Tesla Optimus V3 has become a global focus [1] Global Economic Logic - China implements the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, and international capital actively increases positions in China's technology sector. The US retail in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The US capital goods imports in July reached $95.8 billion, a new record. The euro - zone manufacturing PMI in August broke above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. Huawei announced the evolution and goals of Ascend chips, and the global AI infrastructure is accelerating [1]

Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not mentioned in the provided content. Group 2 - The core view of the report is that as of September 14, the Mongolian coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port was 2780000 tons, with a slight weekly increase of 160000 tons. The average daily vehicle - throughput in August was 1085, and after entering September, the number of customs - cleared vehicles increased significantly, with the average monthly customs - cleared vehicles reaching 1273 per day [1]. Group 3 Summary of the table in the report - The report shows the weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal in the Ganqimao supervision area from July 5, 2025, to September 20, 2025. For example, the inventory on July 5, 2025, was 3750000 tons, and on September 20, 2025, it was 2780000 tons [1].

Report Summary 1. Key Events - The 2510 series contracts of SHFE's commodity options on copper, rubber, gold, aluminum, zinc, rebar, silver, synthetic rubber, nickel, tin, lead, and alumina will expire on September 24, 2025, which is also the expiration date for 9 major ETF options [1] 2. Option Types - Commodity options are American - style options, allowing the buyer to exercise the right on any trading day before and including the expiration date. ETF options are European - style options, exercisable only on the expiration date [1] 3. Operation Deadlines - The deadline for closing positions on the expiration date is 15:00, and the deadline for exercise and waiver operations is 15:10. Commodity in - the - money options with sufficient available funds in the account will be automatically exercised, while out - of - the - money and at - the - money options will be automatically waived. ETF options require an active exercise application during trading hours [7] 4. Opportunities of End - of - Cycle Options - Low - cost bet on market trends: With extremely low contract prices, if the underlying asset experiences an unexpected large increase or decrease, investors may achieve returns of dozens or even hundreds of times [7] - Profit from time - value decay: Option sellers can earn premiums through the rapid decay of time value when the price of the underlying asset is stable. However, this involves unlimited risks and is suitable for professional investors [7] 5. Risks of End - of - Cycle Options - Time - value zeroing risk: If the price of the underlying asset fails to meet expectations before expiration, the option value may shrink significantly due to the rapid loss of time value and become worthless at expiration [7] - Liquidity risk: Some end - of - cycle options have low trading activity, large bid - ask spreads, and it is difficult to execute trades at the desired price, potentially leading to actual losses exceeding expectations [7] - Leverage magnification risk: End - of - cycle options have low prices and extremely high leverage. Small fluctuations in the underlying asset can cause violent oscillations in option prices, potentially resulting in huge short - term fluctuations [6] - Direction misjudgment risk: With a short expiration time, it is difficult for the underlying asset to have a significant trend. Once the direction is misjudged, there is little time for adjustment and recovery [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IF, IC, IM, and IH in the stock index futures of the macro and financial sector [1]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating for A - shares and H - shares [1]. - CITIC Construction Investment Research Report is bullish on the overall Hong Kong stock market [1]. Report's Core View - The Chinese stock market's strong performance this year may be driven by "re - inflation" expectations and artificial intelligence, and future improvements in valuation and liquidity may contribute to further prosperity [1]. - International capital is actively increasing its positions in China's technology sector as China has global competitiveness in frontier fields such as AI, robotics, and biotechnology, and the window for stock market valuation repair is opening [1]. - The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread will attract more global funds to focus on RMB assets, and investors will adjust their asset allocation to increase holdings of Chinese bonds and stocks [1]. - After entering September, the A - share market is in a consolidation period, and the advantages of Hong Kong stocks are emerging [1]. - The current stock market is in a rest stage after a sharp decline on Thursday. The traditional industries are strengthening, and the CSI 300 index stabilizes the market. The market is undergoing a phased style shift from growth to defense, but the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main indexes of the two markets fluctuated and closed slightly lower, with the CSI 300 index rising. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.32 trillion yuan, showing a rapid contraction. The CSI 300 index closed at 4501 points, up 3 points or 0.08%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2909 points, down 3 points or - 0.11%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7170 points, down 29 points or - 0.41%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7438 points, down 38 points or - 0.51% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, coal ETF, military industry leading ETF, engineering machinery ETF, real estate ETF, and tourism ETF led the gains, while auto parts ETF, robot 50ETF, and integrated circuit ETF led the losses. Among the sector indexes of the two markets, energy metals, engineering machinery, tourism, film and television theaters, and coal mining indexes led the gains, while motor manufacturing, home appliance parts, auto services, reducers, and PEEK material indexes led the losses [1]. - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indexes had net outflows of 5.8 billion, 3.1 billion, 2.6 billion, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - Goldman Sachs believes that "re - inflation" expectations and artificial intelligence may be the key drivers of the Chinese stock market's strong performance this year, and future improvements in valuation and liquidity may contribute to further prosperity [1]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating for A - shares and H - shares, and international capital is actively increasing its positions in China's technology sector [1]. - The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread will attract more global funds to focus on RMB assets [1]. - CITIC Construction Investment Research Report shows that after entering September, the A - share market is in a consolidation period, and the attention of domestic and foreign funds to Hong Kong stocks is increasing, and the advantages of Hong Kong stocks are emerging [1]. - Huawei's core strategy is "super - node + cluster", and its Atlas 950 super - node is leading compared with NVIDIA's planned NVL576 in 2027 [1]. - In July, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China reduced its holdings by 25.7 billion US dollars to 730.7 billion US dollars, the lowest level since 2009 [2]. - The Bank of Japan announced that it will sell its ETF holdings at a rate of about 330 billion yen per year and real - estate REIT at a rate of about 5 billion yen per year [2]. - The US Department of Energy launched the "Power Acceleration" plan to meet the surging power demand from artificial intelligence and data centers [2]. - Microsoft will invest 3.3 billion US dollars in a data center in Wisconsin, which will be put into use early next year and will be 10 times more powerful than the current fastest supercomputer [2]. Market Logic - The Chinese stock market's current rally is mainly driven by liquidity, with "re - inflation" expectations and AI autonomy as key catalysts [2]. - If the proportion of foreign institutional holdings in the A - share market rises to the average level of emerging or developed markets, it may bring 14 trillion to 30 trillion yuan of potential capital inflows [2]. Future Market Outlook - The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread will attract more global funds to focus on RMB assets, and investors will increase their holdings of Chinese assets [2]. - The current stock market is in a rest stage after a sharp decline on Thursday. The traditional industries are strengthening, and the CSI 300 index stabilizes the market. The market is undergoing a phased style shift from growth to defense, but the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, in the rest stage, traditional industries are strengthening, and the CSI 300 index stabilizes the market. The market is undergoing a phased style shift from growth to defense, and the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. - For stock index option trading, during the volatile period when the market is undergoing a phased style shift from growth to defense, it is advisable to wait and see [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the log 11 contract will fluctuate in the range of 800 yuan/cubic meter. The current market shows a pattern of inverted domestic and foreign prices, with the high foreign - market quotes providing cost support while domestic inventory has been declining for multiple weeks. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, and the contract price is undervalued. It is recommended to lay out long - term positions for the peak - season expectation when the price is low. In the short term, due to the pressure from the price difference between high foreign quotes and weak domestic spot prices, import enthusiasm is suppressed, and the daily inventory withdrawal at ports remains high, leading to marginal improvement in supply and demand. However, since the peak - season demand has not started yet, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Log 2511 Contract Trend Review No specific content for the contract trend review is provided in the report. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine log price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine from New Zealand is 114 US dollars/JAS square, down 2 US dollars from last week, and the import profit has narrowed. The price of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a regional price difference of 30 yuan/cubic meter [10][13]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment Volume and Ship Number**: In July 2025, New Zealand is expected to ship 1.955 million cubic meters of logs, a month - on - month increase of 13.19%, and the number of ships is expected to be 47, a month - on - month decrease of 5 [15]. - **China's Log Inventory**: As of August 30, China's log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 cubic meters. Shandong's log inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 0.96 million cubic meters. In terms of classification, radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, spruce log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters, and North American log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters [18]. - **Log Out - of - Warehouse Volume**: As of August 31, the average daily out - of - warehouse volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, with a monthly average daily increase of 11,000 cubic meters. Among them, the average daily total out - of - warehouse volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, and at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters [20]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Logic The recent spot market has shown a weak - to - stable trend. The supply side has fluctuated significantly, with the actual arrival volume in the week of September 12 reaching 470,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 246,000 cubic meters, but the expected arrival volume this week will drop significantly to about 215,000 cubic meters. The demand side has been stable, with the average daily shipment volume increasing to 62,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters. There have been structural changes in inventory, with coniferous logs generally shifting to an inventory - building pattern, with a weekly inventory increase of 80,000 cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory increased by 80,000 cubic meters, while North American log inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters. Regionally, the inventory at Shandong ports was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 917,800 cubic meters, an increase of 2,400 cubic meters [22].

Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton Futures Weekly Review - Date: September 20, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Zijian - Contact: 17803978037 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03087965 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0019551 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Internationally, the Fed's 25bp rate cut met market expectations. The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap. The supply in the international cotton market is tightening, driving cotton prices to remain strong [4]. - Domestically, the domestic cotton market is in the critical period of new cotton harvesting, with the price center moving down. New cotton listing pressure is digesting the support effect of reduced old - cotton inventory, and domestic cotton prices will face seasonal downward pressure in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 International Market - **Supply - demand situation**: The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap (production of 25.62 million tons/consumption of 25.87 million tons), with production decreasing by 340,000 tons year - on - year and consumption decreasing by 70,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil's cotton harvesting is over 60% and processing is 20%. US new cotton boll opening rate is 40%, 12 percentage points faster week - on - week but 4 percentage points lower than last year, and the picking progress is 8%, 1 percentage point higher than last year. In early September, US cotton export contracts decreased by 26,200 tons to 29,700 tons, and shipments decreased by 5,300 tons to 30,800 tons. Uzbekistan plans to boost the cotton textile industry through industrial subsidy policies [4]. - **US cotton data**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, up 115,000 mu month - on - month; the harvest area was 44.729 million mu, up 79,000 mu month - on - month; the abandonment rate was 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit was expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, slightly decreasing month - on - month; the production was expected to be 2.879 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption was expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports were expected to be 2.613 million tons, with no significant changes. The ending inventory remained at 784,000 tons [14]. - **US cotton growth progress**: As of September 14, the US cotton boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 9%, 1 percentage point behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. In the main producing area of Texas, the boll opening rate was 46%, the same as last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the picking progress was 21%, the same as last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the five - year average [16]. - **US drought situation**: As of September 9, the area of drought - affected regions in the US accounted for 35.9%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous week. About 32% of cotton - planting areas in the US were affected by drought, 2 percentage points higher than the previous week. In Texas, about 7% of cotton - planting areas were affected by drought, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week [19]. - **US cotton export**: As of September 11, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed net export contracts for 925,000 tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 35.40% of the annual expected exports, and had cumulatively shipped 188,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 20.27%. China had cumulatively signed contracts to import 17,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 1.81% of the signed US cotton contracts, and had cumulatively shipped 363 tons, accounting for 0.19% of the total US cotton shipments and 2.17% of China's signed contracts [28]. 3.2 Domestic Market - **Supply situation**: The domestic cotton market is in the new cotton harvesting period. Xinjiang and other main producing areas' new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and mechanical harvesting is expected to start next week. Mainstream institutions predict that the domestic cotton production in 2025 will exceed 7 million tons. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than last year but 0.1 percentage points lower than the four - year average. The initial inventory decreased by 110,000 tons to 6.13 million tons. Due to the increase in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and a slight increase in yield per unit, the national total production was increased by 520,000 tons to 7.42 million tons this month. The annual import volume remained at 1.4 million tons [5][26]. - **Demand situation**: The downstream demand is under pressure. The effect of textile industry's rush - to - export has faded, and overseas orders have shrunk. In August, textile and clothing exports were 26.5 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. From January to August, cumulative exports were 197.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The new - year textile production capacity in Xinjiang will increase steadily, and the overall textile cotton demand will remain high. The annual textile cotton consumption expectation was increased by 120,000 tons to 8.02 million tons this month, and other consumption and exports remained at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively [5][26]. - **Market structure**: The old - cotton inventory is continuously consumed, supporting high spot prices, but textile enterprises' purchasing willingness is low, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions in the spot market [5]. - **Spinning enterprises situation**: Small and medium - sized spinning enterprises maintain a low operating rate, and the market demand is difficult to support the recovery of the operating rate. Large and medium - sized spinning enterprises with stable customer groups have relatively stable orders and a high operating rate, but yarn prices are difficult to rise, and enterprises have difficulty in making profits, mainly selling at a loss. The operating rates of spinning mills in various regions are basically stable. Large spinning mills in Xinjiang operate at about 90%, large enterprises in Henan operate at an average of 60% - 70%, and large spinning mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Anhui along the Yangtze River operate at an average of 60% - 70% [30]. - **Commercial inventory**: As of August 2025, China's domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 338,500 tons, and it was at a historically low level seasonally [32]. 3.3 USDA Data - **Global cotton supply - demand forecast**: In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production increased month - on - month, consumption increased month - on - month, and import and export trade volumes both increased slightly. Due to the decrease in initial inventory, the ending inventory decreased again this year. In the 2024/25 supply - demand forecast, global cotton production and consumption increased, and the ending inventory decreased again because the increase in consumption was greater than that in production [13].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [3][18] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is in a complex situation of dual - festival stocking and the alternation of new and old seasons. The delay in the listing of new - season late - Fuji apples and the differentiation of inventory quality are the main market contradictions. The scarcity of high - quality goods supports the bottom price of the spot, but weak trading restricts the upward space. The futures market maintains a volatile pattern under the influence of multiple and short factors. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [3]. - As the weather turns cooler, the supply of seasonal fruits decreases, and the demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day gift boxes boosts the apple consumption market. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants increases, and the sales speed accelerates. The acquisition price of late - maturing Fuji may benefit from the high opening price of early - and mid - maturing apples and festival consumption expectations. It is necessary to focus on the climate impact on the high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji and the opening price dynamics from late September to early October. It is recommended to hold long positions in AP2601 [18]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Production Areas - **Shandong**: The price of inventory paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, first - and second - grade) is 3.00 - 4.00 yuan/jin; the price of paper - bagged late - Fuji apples (80 and above, slice - red, general goods) is 2.50 - 3.00 yuan/jin; the price of inventory striped late - Fuji apples (80 and above, first - and second - grade) is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan/jin. The price of cream generals (75 and above) is 1.50 - 1.80 yuan/jin, and the e - commerce procurement enthusiasm is fair [6]. - **Shaanxi**: The price of paper - bagged early - Fuji apples (70 and above, semi - commercial) is 4.50 - 4.85 yuan/jin, and the price of general goods is 3.50 - 3.60 yuan/jin [6]. Apple Inventory As of September 12, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of the country was 20.91 tons, a decrease of 6.44 tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed slowed down compared with the previous week. As of September 17, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 4.59 tons to 16.32 tons week - on - week, reflecting the digestion effect of holiday demand on inventory [3][8]. Downstream Sales Areas In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of trucks arriving in the morning has decreased week - on - week, with an average of about 51 trucks per week. The number of arriving trucks has increased slightly compared with the previous off - season. The market is still dominated by Fuji apples, with an increase in early - maturing Gala apples. The sales of early - maturing apples are fair, but the profits of merchants are average. The terminal sales speed is not fast, the digestion speed of high - quality goods is fair, and the digestion of poor - quality goods is slow. Seasonal fruits impact the apple market sales, the number of arriving trucks in the market is still at a low level, the terminal digestion has slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers maintain on - demand purchases [11]. Other Fruit Prices As of the 23rd week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 8.04 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg. Among them, the average wholesale prices of Kyoho grapes, Fuji apples, Ya pears, and pineapples increased by 1.51 yuan/kg, 0.29 yuan/kg, 0.03 yuan/kg, and 0.05 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week. The average wholesale prices of bananas and watermelons decreased by 0.03 yuan/kg and 0.34 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 22nd week [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: Support and pressure coexist, maintaining an interval trading strategy. In the short term, focus on the new - season corn planting cost and wheat - corn price difference; in the medium term, conduct band trading around the new - season corn drivers; in the long term, follow the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [5][6]. - Pig: Pig prices are expected to stop falling, and short positions on pigs are in the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts are based on supply - demand logic, and far - month contracts focus on the expected difference in sow de - stocking [9][10]. - Egg: The spot price has stopped rising and started to fall. Maintain a short - selling strategy before large - scale concentrated chicken culling. Pay attention to the culling amplitude in the long term [15][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Important Information**: On the 19th, north - south port prices were stable, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices fluctuated, corn futures warehouse receipts decreased, the wheat - corn price difference was positive and expanding, and August 2025 corn imports were at a three - year low. From January to August 2025, cumulative imports decreased by 92.92% year - on - year [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: The lower support of the futures price is the new - season corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference. Medium - term: Conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers. Long - term: Follow the import substitution and planting cost pricing logic, focusing on policy orientation [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain an interval trading strategy. For the 2511 and 2601 contracts, the support is at 2150 - 2160. If the support is broken, there may be further downward space; otherwise, it will remain within the interval [6]. Pig - **Important Information**: On the 19th, the national average pig price was 12.6 yuan/kg. It is expected to be stable with a slight increase on the 20th. In July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, and the number of sows culled by large - scale pig farms increased by 2.1% month - on - month. Central reserve frozen pork procurement will be carried out on September 23 [9][12]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term: Supply exceeds demand, but prices may stop falling after procurement. Medium - term: Pig supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Long - term: Pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short positions on pigs are in the profit - taking range. Near - month contracts are based on supply - demand logic, and far - month contracts focus on the expected difference in sow de - stocking. Provide support levels for different contracts [10]. Egg - **Important Information**: On the 19th, egg prices continued to be weak, inventory levels increased, the price of old hens decreased, and in August, the number of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 5.98% [15]. - **Market Logic**: Short - to medium - term: Mid - to late - month Mid - Autumn Festival stocking weakens, and prices may fall further if inventory rises. Long - term: Pay attention to the culling amplitude, and the supply pressure may be realized in the fourth quarter [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a short - selling strategy before large - scale concentrated chicken culling. Provide pressure levels for different contracts. Breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedge opportunities for the 2607 and 2608 contracts [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel and ore market will maintain a short - term oscillating trend. The iron ore's performance is still stronger than that of finished steel products. The rebar has reached a new low this week, while the iron ore has reached a new high. The rebar's pressure level is 3230 and support level is 3050. The hot - rolled coil's pressure level is 3450 and support level is 3250. The pressure level of the main iron ore contract 2601 is 833 and support level is 750. The trading strategy is short - term operation with stop - loss set [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - In August 2025, China's daily crude steel output decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Considering most steel mills are on the verge of profit and loss, the supply expansion in September is limited. There is an obvious structural differentiation on the supply side. In August, pig iron output increased year - on - year while crude steel output decreased. Currently, blast furnace production contributes more, while electric furnace production is in full - scale loss and its contribution declines [17]. - This week, although blast furnaces resumed, steel supply decreased with structural differentiation. Rebar production and inventory both decreased, while hot - rolled coil production and inventory both increased, with hot - rolled coil performing better than rebar. Shanxi's blast furnaces are gradually resuming production, but the expectation of production restrictions in Tangshan is increasing [15][18]. - This week, the molten iron output increased by 0.47 million tons to 241.02 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate is 58.87%, down 1.5% month - on - month. Electric furnace steel is still in full - scale loss, limiting production enthusiasm [22]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China is 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 744,400 tons month - on - month; the daily average port clearance volume is 3.5103 million tons, an increase of 664,000 tons. The number of ships at ports is 102, an increase of 1. From September 8th to 14th, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.923 million tons, a decrease of 1.806 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.623 million tons, a decrease of 857,000 tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.45 million tons, a decrease of 750,000 tons month - on - month. From September 8th to 14th, Mysteel's global iron ore shipment volume was 35.731 million tons, an increase of 8.169 million tons month - on - month. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 29.778 million tons, an increase of 6.482 million tons month - on - month [26]. Demand Side - In August, the investment growth rates of real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all slowed down, and the domestic demand reduction was obvious. During the transition from the off - season to the peak season in September, the demand has increased but is unstable [17]. Important News - In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron output was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel output was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to August, China's crude steel output was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; pig iron output was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; steel output was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [13]. - In August, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 390 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared with July; the daily average output was 12.6 million tons. From January to August, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.17 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [13]. - From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.26111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In terms of month - on - month, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in August decreased by 0.20% [13]. - On the 16th, there was news that coking and steel enterprises in Tangshan began environmental protection production restrictions. Steel mill blast furnaces were shut down by 40% in terms of equipment, and coking enterprises extended the coking time by 30%. Currently, some enterprises have received production restriction notices, and individual coking enterprises have extended the coking time by 30%. The current overall operating rate of coking plants in the Tangshan market is about 75%. Steel mills have received production restriction notices, and the specific implementation plan is still to be discussed [13]. - Nine listed steel enterprises are accelerating overseas layout, integrating deeply into the global steel industry supply chain through establishing overseas production bases, obtaining international authoritative certifications, and setting up overseas subsidiaries [14]. - British mining company Cadence Minerals recently announced a $4.6 million prepayment financing agreement for the Amapa Iron Ore Project in Brazil. The funds will be used to restart the Azteca beneficiation plant and process high - grade tailings into iron ore concentrates, laying the foundation for the project's long - term expansion plan of an annual output of 5.5 million tons of direct - reduction (DR - grade) iron ore concentrates [14].