格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2509 收于 804.5，环比上一交易日收盘上涨 2.61%。焦炭主力合约 | | | | | J2509 合约收于 1387.5，环比上一交易日收盘上涨 2.66%。夜盘 Jm2509 收于 807.0，环 | | | | | 比日收盘上涨 0.31%。J2509 合约收于 1386.0，环比日收盘下跌 0.11%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2797 元/吨，周环比下调 13 元/吨，与 6 | | | | | 月 25 日普方坯出厂价格 2910 元/吨相比，钢厂平均盈利 113 元 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 25 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 ...

市场快讯 -- 伊以宣布正式停火,地缘风险溢价回落,原油快速回调 | 美国历次降息期间主要商品涨跌幅统计表 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 降息周期 | 英型 | 布伦特原油 | | 1989.6-1989.9(4M) | 表退式降息 | 0.83% | | 储贷危机 | | | | 1995.7-1996.1(7M) | 预防式降息 | 1.10% | | 经济软着陆 | | | | 1998.9-1998.11(3M) | 预防式降息 | -18.17% | | 亚洲金融危机 | | | | 2001.1-2003.6(30M) 互联网泡沫破灭、911恐怖 | 袁退式降息。 | 22.15% | | 炎击 | | | | 2007.9-2008.12(16M) | 袭退式降息 | -41.34% | | 美国次货危机 | | | | 2019.7-2019.10(4M) 经济增长放缓、贸易局势紧 | 预防式降息 | -3.99% | | 张 | | | | 2020.3-2020.3(1M) | 衰退式降息 | -71.73% | | 新冠疫情爆发 | | | 原油 | 2025/ ...

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日 SM2509 合约收于 5610，环比上一交易日收盘下跌 0.11%。SF2509 合约收于 5316， 环比上一交易日收盘上涨 0.30%。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 硅铁锰 | 震荡偏空 | 1、当地时间 6 月 23 日，一名伊朗高级官员证实，伊朗已接受卡塔尔参与调解、美国 提出的与以色列停火方案。 2、6 月 23 日，焦炭市场价格偏弱运行，第四轮降价落地。河北山东主流钢厂针对焦 炭采购价格下调湿熄 50 元/吨，干熄 55 元/吨。 3、杭州推出住房公积金直付购房首付款业务，在杭州市购买的新建商品房，可使用公 | | | 硅 | | 积金直接直付购房首付款。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 锰硅基本面变化不大，产业仍处在亏损周期内，成本端向下空间收窄，6 月钢招接近 | | | | | 尾声，短期震荡为主。硅铁近期市场询盘活跃度尚可，6 月钢招 ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国总统特朗普发表全国讲话，特朗普称，伊朗关键的铀浓缩设施已被"彻底 | | | | | 摧毁"，并称对伊朗核设施的打击是"一次巨大的军事胜利"。 | | | | | 2、伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队称，美国必须等待严厉的惩罚，并表示将打击美国在中东 | | | | | 地区的所有利益。伊朗国家电视台报道称，该地区的每一名美国公民和军事人员都 | | | | | 是"合法目标"。 | | | | | 3、马斯克发出震撼预警：人类正站在"智能大爆炸"的起点，一场"千英尺 AI 海 | | | | | 啸"即将席卷而来。他断言 AI 超级智能极可能在 2025 或 2026 年实现，若发展顺 | | | | | 利，将催生规模达当今经济"数千甚至数百万倍"的未来文明。 | | | | | 4、瑞士央行宣布将政策利率从 0.25%降至 0%，为连续第六 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid the continued escalation of the Middle - East situation with a high probability of US military involvement, the market risk preference is decreasing, and A - shares should continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese assets [47] - The surge in crude oil prices has pushed the world into an inflation shock mode [44] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, the market risk preference declined, and growth - style indices mainly adjusted. In the defensive mode, the bank ETF reached a new high in this round [7][10] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Events - The Middle - East situation is escalating, with a high probability of US military involvement. Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [13][53] - Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big bang", and an "AI tsunami" is coming. AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [13][53] - According to Citi analysis, if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for several months, oil prices may reach $90 per barrel. Closing the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase, but the blockade will be short - lived [13][53] China's Economic Data - In May, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues large - scale investment in emerging and future industries [14] - In May, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining medium - to - high - speed growth [17] - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized [20] - In May, the monthly value of retail sales of consumer goods was 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating continuous improvement in consumption [22] - In May, the monthly value of China's above - scale express delivery volume was 17.32 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.2% [25] - In May, the monthly output of industrial robots was 69,000 units, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 34.1% [27] - In May, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 42.4 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [29] - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 vehicles, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both hitting new highs [31] US Economic Data - In April, US retail and food sales were $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, showing strong US consumption [33] - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [35] - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US core CPI was 2.8% (same as the previous value), with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [38] - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [40] European Economic Data - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost German and Eurozone manufacturing [42] Investment and Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the high probability of US military involvement, the investment advice for A - shares is to continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - For stock index option trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks, option suggestions are suspended [13][53]

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 原油上冲力量可能大幅超预期 2025年6月20日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 以色列掌握制空权后，诉求由摧毁伊朗核设施转向消灭伊朗现政权 以色列掌握制空权后，诉求由摧毁伊朗核设施转向消灭伊朗现政权。 美国总统态度大变，喊话伊朗投降。称已下达攻击任务，但尚未最后下达指令。 美国加油机大规模飞向中东，航母向中东转移。 美国向以色列提供深地炸弹概率大增，以完全摧毁伊朗福尔多地下核设施。 美军直接下场进攻伊朗的概率激增。 面对政权颠覆风险，伊朗已下定死战决心 开战之后伊朗文官政府主和派首鼠两端，希望以去核妥协求和平。 伊朗革命卫队主战派，大规模导弹攻击以色列。 以色列转向消灭伊朗现政权，美军下场概率激增背景下，伊朗下定了死战决心。 6月18日上午，伊朗精神领袖哈梅内伊发布声明：必须强力打击犹太复国主义实体（以色列），永 远不会与犹太复国主义者妥协。 伊朗武装部队新任总参谋长阿卜杜勒—拉希姆·穆萨维表示，迄今为止伊朗展开的行动只是 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 5月消费超预期 投资增速回落 2025年6月20日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约总体表现为震荡上行，30年品种走势偏强，截至收盘全周30年国债涨0.71%，10年国债涨 0.14%，5年国债涨0.12%，2年国债涨0.09%。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 5月份家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类等同比涨幅较大 以旧换新政策推动下，5月限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零 售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%，4月分别增长38.8%、19.9%、33.5%、26.9%。基本生活类和部分升 级类商品销售增势较好，限额以上单位粮油食品类、金银珠宝类、体育娱乐用品类商品零售额分别增长14.6%、 21.8%、28.3%，4月分别增长14.0%、25.3%、23.3%。5月份限额以上单位汽车类消费品零售总额同比增长1.1% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Report's Core View - The upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conclusion is based on factors such as the US-China agreement stabilizing economic expectations, the expansion of the US manufacturing sector, growth in US consumer credit, China's efforts to address cut - throat competition, and the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Summary by Related Content Important Information - The Fed's June dot - plot shows an extreme trend of "either zero rate cuts or two rate cuts". Powell indicates that rate cuts require confirmation of tariff impacts on inflation and face new obstacles like Middle - East conflict escalation and unexpected food price surges, with key decisions postponed to after summer [1] - US President Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but hasn't issued a final order, aiming to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program through threats [1] - Trump has repeatedly asked military advisors about the effectiveness of using giant bunker - busting bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if the US joins the Israel - Iran war [1] - Japan plans to cut the issuance of 20 - year, 30 - year, and 40 - year bonds by 100 billion yen each in each auction from July until the end of March 2026, reducing the ultra - long - term bond issuance by about 10% this fiscal year. The finance ministry will increase short - term and household - designed bond issuance to fill the gap [1] - The US FDA has approved Gilead's lenapavir for pre - exposure prevention of HIV. Clinical results show it can reduce the HIV infection rate by 99.9% with only two doses a year [1] - The CEO of JD CoinChain says payment - type stablecoins will play a "disruptive" positive role in Web3 international trade and plans to launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies [1] - After Israel's attack on Iran, the rent of super - large crude oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled in a week, rising from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a 138% increase [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data shows that the platinum market will have a significant deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an expected shortage of 966,000 ounces [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating. The US - China phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is addressing cut - throat competition. The European Central Bank has cut rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military by 30%, driving up European manufacturing. A potential oil price spike would take time to cause global inflation [1]

市场快讯 --- 库存压力VS减量预期 红枣日内强势上涨 2025年6月19日 1.前期红枣现货市场在供应宽松+需求波软+库存高压的三重 压迫下维持底部震荡。且从钢联的样本统计数据显示,当前红 枣样本库存仍处历史偏高水平,去库速度始终难以提速,这成 为压制前期枣价上行的主要因素。 2.受枣树生长特性影响,旧季红枣增产明显或导致次年枣树养 分透支,这意味着新年度枣树或将进入修复期,因此市场对今 年红枣的供应普遍抱有减量预期,同时盘面价格已跌至历史偏 低水平,部分资金已提前开启布局远月多单。 3.昨日郑商所宣布调整红枣期货合约的保证金标准和涨跌停板 幅度。其中保证金由10%降低为9%,张跌停盘由9%降低为 8%。 4.后市供应端的产量预期变化将成为主导下半年红枣走势的主 要逻辑,若由持续高温天气降临或枣树自身修复情况坐实,盘 面上方仍有空间等待打开,后续请关注我们具体的调研情况。 操作建议:我们已于5月提醒红枣远月合约存在多配价值,当 前盘面已提前反应市场对后市的看涨预期。建议未入场投资者 遇回调可少量布局多单,或卖出虚值看跌期权赚取权利金。 研究员：李克磊 从业资格 FO3104461 交易咨询: ZO0213 ...