格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 21 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 | | | 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上周五生猪期货主力合约震荡偏强，LH2509合约日涨幅1.07%，收于14135元/吨；L | | | | H2511合约日涨幅0.96%，收于13635元/吨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、20日全国生猪均价14.34元/公斤，较18日涨0.17元/公斤；预计今日早间猪价北 | | | | 弱南强，东北调整至14-14.7元/公斤，山东弱稳至14.3-14.9元/公斤，河南微跌至1 | | | | 4.4-14.7元/公斤，四川稳定至13.5-13.8元/公斤，广东涨至15.8-16.2元/公斤，广 | | | | 西涨至13.8-14.3元/公斤。 | | | | 2、官方口径显示我国25年6月能繁母猪存栏4043万头，同比增长0.1%，是 ...

| | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.30%报 3355.5 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.32%报 38.425 美元/盎司。夜盘沪金主连涨 0.36%，报 778.10 元/克，沪银主连涨 0.33%，报 9216 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 7 月 18 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 4.87 吨， | | 有色与贵 金属 | 贵金属 | 黄 金 荡 | 当前持仓量为 943.63 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 36.74 吨，当前持仓量为 14658.21 吨。 2、美国 7 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为 61.8，预期 61.5，前值 60.7。美国 7 月一年期通胀率预期初值为 4.4%，预期 5.0%，前值 5.0%。 震 | | | | 白 银 荡 | 震 【市场逻辑】美国 6 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 21 日 星期一 早盘提示 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五两市主要指数温和上行，稀土板块领涨。两市成交额 1.57 万亿元，变化不大。 | | | | | 中证 1000 指数收 6552 点，涨 16 点，涨幅 0.25%；中证 500 指数收 6099 点，涨 17 | | | | | 点，涨幅 0.28%；沪深 300 指数收 4058 点，涨 24 点，涨幅 0.60%；上证 50 指数收 | | | | | 2764 点，涨 20 点，涨幅 0.74%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是稀土 ETF、有色金 | | | | | 属 ETF、化工 ETF、航天航空 ETF 天弘、军工龙头 ETF，跌幅居前的是 ...

煤焦数据解读-2025年上半年前十大煤炭国企原煤产量 | 排名 | 企业名称 | 2025年H1 (万吨) | 2024年H1 (万吨) | 同比变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国家能源集团 | 30589 | 30890 | -1.0 | | 2 | 晋能控股集团 | 20257 | 18259 | 10. 9 | | 3 | 山东能源集团 | 13837 | 13327 | 3.8 | | 4 | 中煤集团 | 13547 | 13325 | 1.7 | | 5 | 陕煤集团 | 12911 | 12725 | 1.5 | | 6 | 山西焦煤集团 | 9305 | 7991 | 16. 4 | | 7 | 华能集団 | 5113 | 5613 | -8.9 | | 8 | 潞安化工集团 | 4968 | 4395 | 13.1 | | 9 | 河南能源集团 | 3727 | 3529 | 5.6 | | 10 | 国家电投集团 | 3660 | 3833 | -4.5 | 格林大华斯货0351团队点评:从前十大煤炭企业原煤累计产量数据来看，息量保持增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on Chinese equity assets and commodities [31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global economic outlook is positive, with the global economy continuing to rise [7] - China's efforts to strengthen the domestic economic cycle and combat cut - throat competition are expected to boost the performance of listed companies and commodity prices [7][33][34] - The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, which is bullish for silver [13][36] - Anti - cut - throat competition is negative for China's long - duration government bonds [37] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - China's social retail sales are 1.6 times that of the US in terms of actual purchasing power. The US retail and food sales in June reached $720.1 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, indicating strong consumer demand [7][8] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's June PMI production index continued to expand, and the new order index resumed expansion [7] - Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and accelerate rate cuts in 2026. The US core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The PPI final demand in June increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0% month - on - month [7][13][15] - The number of job openings in the US in May was 7.76 million, showing an upward trend. The number of hires in May was the second - highest this year, indicating a tightening labor market [17] - The hourly wage of US non - agricultural enterprises in June was $36.24, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.9% [20] - The US wholesalers' inventory in May increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and manufacturers' inventory increased by 0.9% year - on - year, in an active inventory replenishment state [23] - The Eurozone has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany is expanding its military by 30%, which is expected to boost the Eurozone's manufacturing [7][25] - India's manufacturing PMI in June continued to expand, and its manufacturing and service industries have been expanding for more than three years [27] - Japan's ruling party may lose the election, and the yield of Japan's 40 - year government bonds hit a new high [29] Asset Allocation - China's Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3500 points, and off - market funds are accelerating into the market. Growth - style indexes are more aggressive [32] - Global financial institutional investors are moving away from the US, and the re - allocation of global financial assets is favorable for Chinese assets [32] - Anti - cut - throat competition in China is expected to increase the performance of listed companies [33][41] - Anti - cut - throat competition is expected to drive the Wenhua Commodity Index into a trending upward market [34][50] - Photovoltaic and new energy vehicles are the focus of the current anti - cut - throat competition, and polysilicon, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate are favored [35][53][56] - The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, and silver is favored [36][59] - Anti - cut - throat competition pushes up commodity prices, which is negative for China's long - duration government bonds [37][62] - For the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index contracts 2509 and 2512, a strategy of earning both index increase and premium spread can be continued [44]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘全线平开，全天横向波动，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 主力合约 | TL2509 | 下跌 | 0.02%，10 | 年期 | T2509 | 上涨 | 0.02%，5 | 年期 | TF2509 | 上涨 | 0.02%， | 2 | 年期 | TS2509 | 上涨 | 0.01%。 | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as (bullish) [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend. China strengthens its domestic cycle, Asian exports are strong, and the terminal demand is considered strong. Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September 2025 and accelerate rate - cuts in 2026. China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition is expected to boost listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, Germany is expanding its military by 30%, and Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers [1] Summary by Related Information AI Investment - AI investment covers three major directions: computing power, data, and downstream applications. The global data center construction in computing power is booming, and in application fields such as AI agents, intelligent driving, and intelligent terminals, China has many globally competitive enterprises [1] Eurozone Government Bonds - As the US dollar's safe - haven status is questioned, central banks around the world are increasing their allocation of eurozone government bonds, and the subscription ratio in eurozone government bond issuance has risen from 16% last year to 20% so far this year [1] Central Bank Independence - After JPMorgan Chase's Dimon took the lead, executives from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup also voiced their support for the central bank's independent operation without White House intervention [1] Japanese Stock Market - With the upcoming Japanese election, Japan's $6.8 trillion stock market faces a "reckoning" moment. Polls suggest that the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru may lose its majority in the Senate election this weekend [1] Stablecoin Business - JPMorgan Chase's CEO Dimon and Citigroup's CEO Fraser said they will participate in the stablecoin business, and JPMorgan needs to accept stablecoins to keep up with competitors [1] Tariffs and Inflation - New York Fed President Williams expects tariffs to add about one percentage point to inflation from the second half of 2025 to 2026, although the current comprehensive data shows only a relatively limited impact of tariffs [1] xAI's Expansion - Musk's xAI is looking to expand its infrastructure in the Middle East to power its computing - intensive AI models with the region's cheap energy, abundant capital, and political goodwill [1] Trump's Tariff Plan - Trump plans to impose tariffs slightly higher than 10% on at least 100 countries, including those in Africa and the Caribbean [1] Economic Data - The final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in June 2025 was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index in June 2025 resumed expansion. Germany's industrial output in May 2025 increased by 1.2% month - on - month [1]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 18 日星期五 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货：昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截止夜盘收盘2509合约涨幅0.61%，收 | | | | | 于2300元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、昨日现货市场东北弱稳为主、华北稳中有涨。中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日锦 | | | | | 州港收购价（15%水/容重680-720）2300-2310元/吨，较前一日跌10元/吨；蛇口港 | | | | | 散粮成交价2440元/吨，较前一日持平。东北深加工企业主流收购价2243元/吨，较 | | | | | 前一日持平；华北地区深加工企业昨日主流收购价2456元/吨， 较前一日涨7元/吨 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 2、截至7月17日，玉米期货仓单减少450手，共计1849 ...

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 18 日星期五 | | | --- | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布， 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2509 期价上涨 9 元至 1743 元/吨，华中主流地 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 【行情复盘】 | 昨日 | CJ509 | 合约收盘价 | 9390 | 元/吨，日涨幅 | 0.37%。CJ601 | 合约收盘价 | 10380 | 元/吨， | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日涨幅 | 0.14%。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1.本周 | 36 | 家样本点物理库存在 | 10320 | 吨，环比减少 | 110 | 吨。 | 2.河北市场一级批发价格 | 8.6 | 元/公斤，日环比持平。广东一级批发价格 | 9.8 | 元/公 | | | 斤，日环比持平。 | 3.昨日广东如意坊市场到货车辆 | 7 | 车，日环比+2 | 车。 | | | | | | | | | | 4.昨日郑商所红枣仓单共计 | 8972 | 张，环比-56 | 张。 | 宽 | 幅 | 农林畜 | 红枣 | 5.昨日 | CJ9 ...