早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 15 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 在中央经济工作会议利好下，周五两市主要指数先抑后扬，半导体设备板块领涨。 | | | | | 两市成交额 2.09 万亿元，上涨放量。沪深 300 指数收 4580 点，涨 28 点，涨幅 0.63%； | | | | | 上证 50 指数收 2994 点，涨 17 点，涨幅 0.59%；中证 500 指数收 7169 点，涨 86 | | | | | 点，涨幅 1.23%；中证 1000 指数收 7370 点，涨 58 点，涨幅 0.81%。行业与主题 ETF | | | | | 中涨幅居前的是科创半导体 ETF、半导体设备 ETF、电网设 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 美联储重启扩表 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 美联储降息25个基点，每月购买400亿美元短债，美联储资产负债表重新开启扩张。高盛分析师警告，当前 拉斯维加斯博彩收入下滑的消费趋势，与2008年金融危机前的早期预警信号高度相似。美国发布新版《国家安全 战略》，放弃全球霸权，将调整与中国的经济关系，重振美国经济自主地位。美联储褐皮书显示，消费者K型分 化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。高盛指出美联储会议最大看点是鲍威尔 承认非农就业存在"系统性高估"。目前官方数据每月或虚高6万人，实际就业市场可能已陷入"月减2万"的负 增长泥潭。机构预计失业率上升将倒逼降息，市场正在押注更激进宽松。 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、工业金属等大类资产产生 颠覆式深远影响。鉴于美国连续的错误政策，全球经济正在越过顶部区域 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 支撑压力并存 玉米区间运行为主 天气支撑现货 盘面维持震荡整理 弱现实强预期 鸡蛋合约近弱远强 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米期货分析逻辑及策略建议 本周观点：支撑压力并存 玉米区间运行为主 【重要资讯】 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示12日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区收购均价为2114元/吨， 较前一日跌4元/吨；华北地区收购均价2275元/吨，较前一日涨5元/吨。 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示12日南北港口价格小幅上涨。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价2250- 2270元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2420元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨。 3、12月12日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日减1350手，共计57355手。 4、国家统计局今日发布2025年全年粮食实现增产丰收。2025年，全国粮食产量14297.5亿斤， 短期来看，上有季节性供给压力、下有备货情绪支撑，现货预计或处于区间运行；中 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 股指或震荡弱势至年底 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 中央经济工作会议召开 坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商 品和服务供给。 清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资规模。 建设北京（京津冀）、上海（长三角）、粤港澳大湾区国际科技创新中心。深化拓展"人工智能+。 深入整治"内卷式"竞争。加紧清理拖欠企业账款。 深入推进中小金融机构减量提质，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革。 坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型。制定能源强国建设规划纲要，加快新型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应 用。加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设。 倡导积极婚育观，努力稳 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 预计钢矿继续震荡走势 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 钢材：中央经济工作会议部分内容超预期，但政策总体侧重于托底，不在于提振，对盘面无明显刺激作用。 宏观预期因素已经减退，市场重回产业层面。本期螺卷产销存均下降。高炉检修增多，铁水产量继续下降。 总体看，供需双弱。上游焦炭第二轮提降已全面落地，成本线不断下移。预计螺卷震荡偏弱，关注螺纹主 力2605合约3050能否跌破。 铁矿石：本期铁水日产229.2万吨，环比减少3.1万吨。预期后期继续减量。本期国内铁矿到港下降，但发 运积极。综合判断，预计铁矿继续维持震荡走势。新主力2605合约压力位800，支撑位734。 【交易策略】 建议短线操作。 重要资讯 3、美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储年内 的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。 4、国家统计局：11月份，中国CPI同比上 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 继往开来——学习中央经济工作会议 摘要 宏观经济 2025年12月12日 | 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3063825 | 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月12日星期五 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 12月11日闭幕的中央经济工作会议对2026年经济工作做出指导 。延续了去年的"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针 对性协同性"，"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策"。相比去年提出的"加强超常规逆周期调节"，今 年表述为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节"，新提出"发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应"。我们理解可能会从超常规过渡到常规，更加重视 跨周期调节，也就是从更长远的视角来制定中短期的政策。 对于财政政策我们关注到"保持必要"四个字，我们预计2026 年财政赤字率可能会保持在4%，新增地方政府债务规模约4万亿元， 超长期国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is turning weak. The Fed's actions, such as rate - cuts and short - term bond purchases, along with various economic indicators in the US and other countries, suggest a complex economic situation. The US's policy adjustments and economic trends, including consumer K - type differentiation, employment data, and retail sales, indicate potential economic challenges. Additionally, the AI - driven investment boom and the supply - demand imbalances in some industries are also significant factors affecting the global economic landscape [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Global Economic News - The Fed will start buying short - term Treasury bonds as needed to maintain sufficient reserve supply, with the New York Fed planning to buy $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds in the next 30 days and expecting high - scale purchases in the coming months [1] - If SpaceX goes public at a $1.5 trillion valuation, Elon Musk's stake in the company could increase from $136 billion to over $625 billion [1] - Starcloud, an orbital data center startup, has achieved the first attempt to train a large - language model in space, with a satellite carrying NVIDIA's H100 GPU running an application based on Google's open - source model Gemma [1] - GE Vernova, one of the three oligarchs in the global gas turbine market, expects to sign 80 gigawatts of combined - cycle gas turbine contracts by the end of the year, and its gas turbine production capacity is almost sold out until 2029 [1] - The storage industry is facing unprecedented supply - demand tensions. DRAM shortages are expected to last until Q1 2027, with DDR demand growing 20.7% far exceeding supply growth, and NAND shortages expected to continue until Q3 2026 [1] - US AI five giants' capital expenditure in Q3 increased by 72.9% year - on - year, and except for Microsoft, the other four have negative free cash flows, with potential capital expenditure vulnerability worsening next year [1] - The former executive director of the Bank of Japan predicts that Governor Kazuo Ueda may raise interest rates up to four times before 2027, indicating a more aggressive tightening cycle [1] - There is an unprecedented surplus in crude oil supply, but Brent oil prices remain stable at $61 - 66 due to uncertainty about the effective supply from sanctioned countries. If sea - borne inventories move to land, oil prices may drop significantly [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and resumed expanding its balance sheet by buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Las Vegas gambling revenue decline shows a consumption trend similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US issued a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relations with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows increased K - type differentiation among consumers, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families cut back [2] - ADP employment data shows that private companies cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses being the hardest - hit [2] - Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.96%, the highest since July 2007 [2] - Morgan Stanley expects AI - driven investment to expand the credit market, with the total issuance of investment - grade bonds surging to $2.25 trillion [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - Morgan Stanley strategists estimate that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - US data center planned capacity has soared to 245 gigawatts, with a 45 - gigawatt increase in Q3 alone [2] - US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far below expectations, indicating a consumer spending cut [2] - Economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs in the US are an economic warning signal [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major global assets, and the global economy is turning weak [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report gives a "turning weak" rating for the global economy in the macro and finance sector [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is turning weak as the US has made a series of wrong policies and is regressing to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Economic News - Goldman Sachs analysts warn that the declining consumer trend in Las Vegas gambling revenue is highly similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis. If the weakness spreads to broader sectors like aviation, the Fed may consider more aggressive rate - cut policies [1] - The US releases a new version of the "National Security Strategy", giving up global hegemony, adjusting economic relations with China, and revitalizing its own economic autonomy. Market focus shifts from rate - cuts to the Fed potentially restarting large - scale bond purchases [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation intensifies, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] - ADP employment data reveals that private enterprises in the US cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023. Small businesses are the hardest - hit by layoffs, with those having fewer than 50 employees cutting a total of 120,000 jobs [2] - Japan's 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises to 1.96%, the highest since July 2007 [2] - The JOLTS report shows that US hiring in October drops by over 4% month - on - month, layoffs rise to 1.85 million (the highest since early 2023), and the voluntary quit rate hits a five - year low. The labor market is slowing but not as severely as some alternative data sources suggest [1] - The Bank of Japan governor indicates that the central bank may not end after another rate hike, and the process of monetary policy normalization will continue [1] 3.2 AI - related News - Howard, the founder of Oak Capital, warns that AI may have a "terrifying" impact on employment, and the market's optimistic expectations about productivity improvement ignore social tolerance. AI has become a "winner - takes - all" arms race [1] - Morgan Stanley says the market is pricing in a grand narrative of a new AI infrastructure. Musk is envisioning SpaceX's entry into the space data center business, which is the fastest way to expand computing power in the next four years and has many advantages [1] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet rising AI service demand [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists think the construction boom of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion. The planned capacity of US data centers has soared to 245 gigawatts, with an increase of 45 gigawatts in the third quarter alone [2] - Big - Mo reaffirms that the investment driven by AI's unabated financing demand will boost the credit market, expecting the total issuance of investment - grade bonds to surge to $2.25 trillion [2] 3.3 Other News - Silver surges to an unprecedented $60 per ounce due to supply shortages as traders stay optimistic ahead of the Fed's interest - rate decision. It attracts investors seeking lower - cost safe - haven assets [1] - SpaceX plans to go public as early as the second half of 2026. If it sells 5% of its shares as planned, the fundraising scale will reach about $40 billion, driven by the growth of Starlink and the development of the Starship rocket [1] - Microsoft invests $17.5 billion in building AI infrastructure in India, the largest investment in Asia. It also plans to add over C$7.5 billion in investment in Canada in the next two years, increasing its total AI investment in Canada to C$19 billion, with new production capacity coming online in the second half of next year [1] - US retail sales in September grow only 0.2%, far lower than expected, indicating that Americans are cutting spending and the affordability crisis is hitting the consumer side. Economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs in the US are an economic warning signal [2]

马来西亚棕榈油局 (MPOB)11月报告 2025年12月10日12:30公布 | 金十期货APP独家整理 进口量 圈内消息 THE 144 (-14.9%) 2.32 121.28 (-36.12%) -28.13%) 3.6 169.3 径林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO., LTD. 2025年12月10日 市场快讯---库存大增出口萎缩 棕榈油承压下行 | | 马来西亚 | | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | | 单位:万吨 | 产量 | | 路透预期 | 198 | | | (-396) | | 2025年 | 193.6 | | 11月数据 | (-5.3%) | | 2025年 | 204.4 | | 10月数据 | | | 2024年 | 162.1 | | 11月数据 | | 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）11月马棕供需数据利空来袭，库存增幅超预期，出口降幅超预期。马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB: 马来西亚11月棕榈油产量为1935510吨，环比减少5.30%。马来西亚11月棕榈油出口为1212814吨，环比减少28.13%。马来西 亚11月棕榈油库存 ...

市场快讯---库存大增出口萎缩 棕榈油承压下行 数据来源： 金十数据 | | 马来西亚 | | --- | --- | | | 2025年 | | 单位:万吨 | 产量 | | 路透预期 | 198 | | | (-396) | | 2025年 | 193.6 | | 11月数据 | (-5.3%) | | 2025年 | 204.4 | | 10月数据 | | | 2024年 | 162.1 | | 11月数据 | | 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）11月马棕供需数据利空来袭，库存增幅超预期，出口降幅超预期。马来西亚棕榈油局MPOB: 马来西亚11月棕榈油产量为1935510吨，环比减少5.30%。马来西亚11月棕榈油出口为1212814吨，环比减少28.13%。马来西 亚11月棕榈油库存量为2835439吨,环比增长13.04%。马来西亚11月棕榈油进口为23176吨,环比减少36.12%。库存增幅超过 路透预测的266万吨将近17万吨,出口低于路透预期的144万吨23万吨。 2025年12月10日 明末度: 266 (7.78%) 283.5 (+1 3.04%) 246.4 研究员：刘锦 从业资格 F0 ...